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The net effect of the pandemic mitigation strategies on childhood mortality is not known. During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, mitigation policies and behaviors were widespread, and although vaccinations and effective treatments were not yet widely available, the risk of death from SARS-CoV-2 infection was low. In that first year, there was a 7% decrease in medical (“natural causes”) mortality among children ages 0-9 during the first pandemic year (5% among infants 1 year was absent. However, smaller increases in external (“non-natural causes”) mortality were also observed during the study period, which decreased the overall number of pediatric deaths averted during both years and the pandemic period. In total, 1,468 fewer all-cause pediatric deaths than expected occurred in the United States during the first 24 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

IntroductionThe US continued to record all-cause excess mortality after the rollout of vaccines. We sought to quantify excess mortality by state and compare these rates to primary series vaccination completion levels.MethodsObservational cohort, US and state-level data. Expected monthly deaths were modeled using pre-pandemic US and state-level data (2015-2020). Mortality data was accessed from CDC public reporting.ResultsWe find that in a two-year period since the rollout of vaccines, the US recorded >874,000 excess deaths. Vaccination rates and excess mortality were most strongly correlated in first two periods before the Omicron variant.ConclusionThe association between vaccination and lower excess mortality rates was strongest in 2021 and early 2022, prior to high population rates of infection-acquired immunity. The findings underscore the benefits of the rapid vaccination rollout campaign and the continued need to boost at-risk populations.

IntroductionThe US has continued to see excess mortality through the Delta and Omicron periods. We sought to quantify excess mortality on a state level and calculate potential deaths averted if all states matched the excess mortality rates of those with the 10 lowest excess mortality rates.MethodsObservational cohort, US and state-level data. Expected monthly deaths were modeled using pre-pandemic US and state-level data (2015-2020). Mortality data was accessed from CDC public reporting.ResultsWe find that during the Delta and Omicron waves, the US recorded over 596,000 excess deaths. 60% of the nation’s total excess mortality during these periods could have been averted if all states had excess mortality rates equal to those with the 10 lowest excess mortality rates.ConclusionWith large differences in excess mortality across US states in this 15-month study period, we note that a significant portion of deaths could have been averted with higher vaccination rates, improved mitigation policies, and adherence to other behaviors.

IntroductionThere were concerns that suicide deaths might increase due to Covid-19 pandemic-related stressors. Previous research demonstrated that suicide deaths actually decreased in 2020 in the US. An update covering 2021-2022 with regional data is warranted.MethodsObservational cohort, US and regional data. Expected monthly deaths were modeled using pre-pandemic US and regional data (2015-2020). Mortality data was accessed from CDC public reporting.ResultsWe find that suicide deaths in the United States were below expected levels throughout the pandemic period (March 1, 2020-June 30,2022) with >4,100 fewer suicide deaths than would have been expected to occur during the study period. Stratifying suicide mortality by US Census Bureau region yielded statistically significant decreases from expected suicide deaths in all regions except the Midwest, (which recorded no significant change in suicide deaths during the overall pandemic period).ConclusionSuicide mortality is down in the US since the pandemic began, through June 30, 2022. Possible explanations include an early “coming together” effect; Later, increased access to mental health resources and a greater focus on mental health in the media may have reduced stigma and barriers in seeking necessary psychiatric care.

IntroductionExcess mortality does not depend on labeling the cause of death and is an accurate representation of the pandemic population-level effects. A comprehensive evaluation of all-cause excess mortality in the United States during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, stratified by age, sex, region, and race/ethnicity can provide insight into the extent and variation in harm.MethodsWith Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)/National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data from 2014-2022, we use seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (sARIMA) to estimate excess mortality during the pandemic, defined as the difference between the number of observed and expected deaths. We continuously correct monthly expected deaths to reflect the decreased population owing to cumulative pandemic-associated excess deaths recorded. We calculate excess mortality for the total US population, and by age, sex, US census division, and race/ethnicity.ResultsFrom March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2022, there were 1.17 million excess deaths in the United States. Overall, mortality was 20% higher than expected during the study period. Of the excess deaths, 799,477 (68%) were among residents aged 65 and older. The largest relative increase in all-cause mortality was 27% among adults ages 18-49 years. Males comprised most of the excess mortality (57%), but this predominance declined with age. A higher relative mortality occurred among non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaskan Native, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, Hispanic people. Excess mortality differed by region; the highest rates were in the South, including in the population ages ≥65 years. Excess mortality rose and fell contemporaneously with COVID-19 waves.ConclusionIn the first two years of the pandemic, the US experienced 1.17 million excess deaths, with greater relative increases in all-cause mortality among men, in American Indian/Alaskan Native, Black and Hispanic people, and the South.

BackgroundWe sought to quantify whether there were statistically significant disparities along race and ethnicity lines during the early rollout of Covid-19 vaccine booster doses in the United States. We also studied whether such disparities replicated or widened disparities that had already been observed during the initial series rollout as of 2 months earlier (Janssen) or 6 months earlier (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna), which comprised the booster-eligible population.MethodsThis cross-sectional study of US adults (ages ≥18 years) used public data from US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The observed shares of vaccine doses for each race and ethnicity were compared to the expected shares, predicted based upon the compositions of the booster-eligible and initial series-eligible populations.ResultsAs of November 16, 2021, 123.5 million US adults were eligible for a booster dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Janssen vaccines. Of these, 21.7 million had received a booster dose, among whom race and ethnicity information was available for 18.8 million booster recipients.A statistically significant higher share of Non-Hispanic White and Non-Hispanic Multiple/Other race individuals had received a booster vaccination than projected based on the composition of the booster-eligible population. A statistically significant lower share of Hispanic, Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaskan Native, Non-Hispanic Asian, Non-Hispanic Black, and Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander individuals had received a booster vaccination than expected based on the booster-eligible population. A secondary analysis of the booster-eligible population found that some of these disparities had already occurred at the time of the initial series. However, the booster campaign widened all of those disparities and added new disparities for Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaskan Native and Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander individuals.ConclusionDisparities in Covid-19 vaccine administration on race and ethnicity lines occurred during the initial series rollout in the US. However, these disparities were not merely replicated but widened by the early booster rollout.

BackgroundAll-cause excess mortality (the number of deaths that exceed projections in any period) has been widely reported during the Covid-19 pandemic. Whether excess mortality has occurred during the Delta wave is less well understood.MethodsWe performed an observational study using data from the Massachusetts Department of Health. Five years of US Census population data and CDC mortality statistics were applied to a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sARIMA) model to project the number of expected deaths for each week of the pandemic period, including the Delta period (starting in June 2021, extending through August 28th 2021, for which mortality data are >99% complete). Weekly Covid-19 cases, Covid-19-attributed deaths, and all-cause deaths are reported. County-level excess mortality during the vaccine campaign are also reported, with weekly rates of vaccination in each county that reported 100 or more all-cause deaths during any week included in the study period.ResultsAll-cause mortality was not observed after March 2021, by which time over 75% of persons over 65 years of age in Massachusetts had received a vaccination. Fewer deaths than expected (which we term ‘deficit mortality’) occurred both during the summer of 2020, the spring of 2021 and during the Delta wave (beginning June 13, 2021 when Delta isolates represented >10% of sequenced cases). After the initial wave in the spring of 2020, more Covid-19-attributed deaths were recorded that all-cause excess deaths, implying that Covid-19 was misattributed as the underlying cause, rather than a contributing cause of death in some cases.ConclusionIn a state with high vaccination rates, excess mortality has not been recorded during the Delta period. Deficit mortality has been recorded during this period.

As the COVID-19 pandemic worsens in the United States [1], colleges that have invited students back for the fall are finalizing mitigation plans to lessen the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Even though students have largely been away from campuses over the summer, several outbreaks associated with colleges have already occurred [2], foreshadowing the scale of infection that could result from hundreds of thousands of students returning to college towns and cities. While many institutions have released return-to-campus plans designed to reduce viral spread and to rapidly identify outbreaks should they occur, in many cases communications by college administrators have been opaque. To contribute to an evaluation of university preparedness for the COVID-19 pandemic, we assessed a crucial element: COVID-19 on-campus testing. We examined testing plans at more than 500 colleges and universities throughout the US, and collated statistics, as well as narratives from publicly facing websites. We discovered a highly variable and muddled state of COVID-19 testing plans among US institutions of higher education that has been shaped by discrepancies between scientific studies and federal guidelines. We highlight cases of divergence between university testing plans and public health best practices, as well as potential bioethical issues.