Search

Agent-Based Modeling for impact assessment of urban sprawl on cash-crop farm structure in southwestern France

Crop growth models developed at field level are increasingly used in larger scale studies often in combination with other models to explore management options at the whole-farm scale or for integrated assessment at regional level (e.g. Giller et al., 2006; van Ittersum et al., 2008). Unclear is whether the mechanistic detail of dynamic simulation crop models is required for such applications or whether summary models may be sufficient. To address this issue and to identify relationships that need specific attention in future research, we compared simulations of crop production by two models with a different degree of mechanistic detail.

In order to test and improve the Seamless Integrated Framework and its components two test cases have been identified and are considered as representative of the types of questions that Seamless-if is designed to address, combining top or bottom driven issues with economic or environmentally driven issues. The objective of this deliverable is to describe the major characteristics of scenarios and systems which will form the basis of the test case 1 which is mainly driven by economic policies., Ce rapport est une production du projet européen Seamless (System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society). Il décrit les caractéristiques principales des scénarios qui seront testés avec le premier prototype du modèle Seamless If qui vise à évaluer ex ante et à différents niveaux d'échelle les impacts de changements de politique sur l'agriculture en Europe. Ce rapport présente également les cactérisitiques des régions et de leur système agraire, dans lesquels ce test va être réalisé.

[Departement_IRSTEA]GT [TR1_IRSTEA]RURAMEN / AMANDE [TR2_IRSTEA]RURAMEN / CERES; In the introduction of this report a definition of SEAMLESS-IF compatible scenarios is proposed. It describes, firstly, the driving forces for the future that affect agriculture in a given area and their impacts on the systems' responses in terms of sustainability of agricultural systems and of sustainable development of this area. The driving forces of agriculture in a given area may be either internal or external: -External forces are hypothetical changes in the general conditions surrounding agriculture,which cannot be controlled by farmers and agricultural or environmental policy makers(climate, population growth, inflation, GDP growth...). Internal forces include: -The resources and strategies of farmers which describe the available technology at the farm gate. -The main policies that govern the interactions among farmers and between farmers and their socio-economic environment. Next the SEAMLESS-IF procedure to perform a policy integrated assessment is described in three distinct phases: - A pre-modeling phase (Phase 1), From user's problem to scenario parameters: during this phase multiple interactions between users (i.e. policy experts) and SEAMLESS experts (i.e. Integrative Modelers) will follow a guideline for the definition of scenarios compatible with the functionalities of SeamFrame. This guideline (not implemented in the GUI for Prototype 2) will lead the users and the SEAMLESS experts to describe expected (i.e. narrative)impacts corresponding to the pre-selected policy questions and systems. Using the outcomes of these interactions experts will determine quantitative scenario parameters which are consistent with the user's expectations and with the SeamFrame functionalities. Finally users will select indicators with the SeamFrame GUI and will describe their expectations in term of uncertainty analysis. This pre-modeling phase is described in 6 steps: 1. Problem description 2. Procedure for Institutional Compatibility Assessment (PICA) 3. Expected impacts description 4. Initial consistency control (assessment of the compatibility between the user's question and the possibilities of SEAMLESS-IF) 5. Selection of indicators for impact assessment with the SeamFrame GUI. 6. Definition of uncertainty analysis expectations from the users - A modeling phase (Phase 2), From scenario parameters to indicators values. This phase is conducted entirely by Integrative modelers with interactions with users restricted to clarifications. It corresponds to the implementation of the scenario parameters in and the run of SeamFrame. It will provide quantified indicators (i.e. indicator values) for each scenario defined during the first phase, using a set of pre-existing SEAMLESS models and other components (database, typologies, indicators) parameterized and linked by the SEAMLESS experts under the SeamFrame environment. In this part of the report the expected functionalities of SeamFrame with regards to the components are described in detail. That concerns: 1. Indicator calculator 2. Database Manager 3. Typologies editor 4. Model chain Manager 5. Scenario editor 6. Sensitivity analysis 7. Additional expertises - A post modeling phase (Phase 3), From indicators values to qualified and quantified impacts: during this phase iterative interactions between users and experts will allow to review impacts1 throughout Seam:PRES. Feedback workshops with the users, the experts and if necessary stakeholders groups can be held to improve the analysis of quantified impacts in perspective of the expected impacts. Based on the outcomes of these meetings small adjustments in the specification of drivers and linkages among models can be made and new model simulations can be carried out with the modeling framework. Lastly final lists of impacts for each scenario2 are selected in order to address the user's question and requirements in terms of policy assessment. These lists are composed of a combination of qualitative (from additional expertise) and of quantitative impacts(from phase 2 output) for each scenario. This post-modeling phase is described from 4 points of view: 1. Transparency of simulation process and results; 2. Seam:PRES; 3. PICA; 4. SEAMLESS-IF as an iterative procedure.

The main objective of the integrated modelling framework (SEAMLESS-IF) is to support analysis of agricultural systems and assessment of impacts related to sustainability and sustainable development. To reach this objective, two test cases, driven by economic (test case 1) or environmental policies (test case 2), are considered to test and improve SEAMLESS-IF. The focus of this deliverable is to describe the major characteristics of environmental policies and agro-ecological technologies to be studied in test case 2. This deliverable will provide the background of knowledge, policies and technologies on which policy scenarios will be defined in Test case 2 (PD 6.2.4, SEAMLESS DOW, 2005). The report is divided into three parts. The first part describes the stakes and the current situation of water use, water pollution and biodiversity in EU and in each of the agricultural regions (as defined in Perez et al., 2005) selected for detailled implementation of the test case in France (The Neste and the Massif Central) and in Poland (Pyrzyce). It further reviews the main difference on water use, pollution and biodiversity, between the north and the south of Europe and between accession and western European countries. The second part of the report details the main European regulations and directives aimed to reduce the use of the water, the water pollution by nitrate and pesticide and to preserve biodiversity. This part of the deliverable is divided in three paragraphs: 1.The overview of directives and regulations to control water use and pollution by describing nitrate directives and pesticide legislation. 2. Birds and habitats directives to preserve biodiversity. 3.Implementation of directives to preserve water quality, water use and biodiversity, in each agricultural region of the test case in France and Poland. The first two points include a discussion on the effect of crop rotation and management, via experiments through the world and in Europe, to reduce water use and pollution by nitrate and pesticide. This part describes also the role of grassland to preserve biodiversity. The last part describes main agro-ecological innovations to preserve water and biodiversity. It is focussed on agro-ecological innovations such as conservation agriculture, agroforestry, organic farming which are known to preserve water and biodiversity., Le principal objectif du modèle intégré (SEAMLESS-IF) est de fournir une analyse des systèmes agraires et une évaluation de leurs impacts en terme de durabilité et de développement durable. Pour atteindre cet objectif, deux études de cas, pilotées par des politiques économiques (test case 1) ou environnementales (test case 2)sont réalisées pour tester et améliorer. Ce raport decrit les principales caractérisitiques des politiques environnementales et des techniques agro-écologiques qui vont être étudiées dans le test case 2.

This deliverable gives a short overview about the conceptual framework behind scenarios in SEAMLESS and describes the structure of the baseline and policy scenarios for Test Case 1. This involves not only the definition of these scenarios but also the identification of the different components involved in their construction. The description of the baseline is structured upon several global and regional scenario drivers. The global drivers are incorporated into Prototype 1 and try to reflect the projection of policies affecting agriculture in 2012. They are based on previous work carried out by the CAPRI team (partially condensed in PD6.2.3). These should steer Test Case 1, since the effects of policy changes on markets are the main focus of analysis. For the adaptation of the baseline to the sample regions (Nuts 2 administrative regions including Midi Pyrenées,Flevoland, Brandenburg, Andalucía) and test case regions (Pyrzyce in Poland, Neste and Massif Central in France, and Sikasso and Koutiala in Mali) expert information has been collected and will be incorporated in Prototype 2. These regional drivers will be implemented in FSSIM and linked to the market level via EXPAMOD (changes in regional production elasticities). This is an important milestone towards the construction of a comprehensive baseline at different levels, where the local conditions are also taken into account in its design. The description of the policy scenario for Test Case 1 is only done at the global level (no regional drivers involved besides the ones referring to the Malian case) and introduces a scenario where trade for agricultural commodities is liberalised in the world according to the last European proposal of October 2005 (COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES, 2005b). The main variables describing the policy scenario are built in the CAPRI model. The link from CAPRI to the regional farm type models of FSSIM is done via changes in regional prices. The baseline and policy scenarios will be further elaborated in Prototype 2, as more information will become available and the capabilities of SEAMLESS will be extended.