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This article expands the scope of comparative social stratification research in education to rapidly developing, largely low-income sub-Saharan Africa. First, we investigate trends in the association between parental socioeconomic status (SES) and children's chances to attend and complete primary education, exploring whether and where educational expansion of the early twenty-first century led to equalization of educational opportunities. Drawing on data from 153 Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (1990–2017) from 40 countries, findings indicate that inequality in attendance declined, but inequality in completing six grades largely persisted. Cross-country analyses reveal a large variation in inequality levels and trends. We explore the role of national contextual factors and find that underweight prevalence, fertility rates, school fees, public spending on education, and the ratio of pupils to teaching staff systematically explain variation in SES gaps across countries and cohorts. Findings underline the importance of absolute material deprivation and school teaching resources in the stratification of educational opportunities in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, first, we present new evidence on a specific type of compensatory advantage (CA) mechanism in educational transitions and attainment, whereby students from socio-economically advantaged families compensate the negative event of achieving poor grades by ignoring them and disproportionally moving on to the next level of education. Using two independent data sources, we focus on the attainment of an upper secondary degree and the transition from high school to university in Italy, investigating the role of parental education and social class in compensating for an early poor academic performance. Second, we develop a simulated scenario analysis to assess how much of the observed social background inequality is due to the educational outcomes of poorly performing students from high social backgrounds. The results are consistent with the notion that a CA mechanism is in place and show that the advantage of individuals with higher backgrounds over those from lower backgrounds is much larger among students with bad marks in earlier school stages. We estimate that at least one-third of the observed social background inequality in educational transitions in Italy can be attributed to the CA mechanism. This result is consistent across different outcomes, samples and birth cohorts, and is robust to a number of sensitivity checks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research is divided as to whether children living in same-sex parent families achieve different outcomes compared with their peers. In this article, we improve on earlier estimates of such differences and subsequently study whether and why the association between parental union sex composition and children's school progress changed over time. Data from the American Community Survey waves 2008-2015 (N = 1,952,490 including 7,792 children living with a same-sex couple) indicate that children living with same-sex couples were historically more likely to be behind in school but that this association disappeared over time. Changes in socioeconomic characteristics of same-sex couples played a minor role. In 2008, it was only in areas with unfavorable laws and attitudes toward same-sex couples that children living with same-sex couples were more likely to be behind in school. This was especially the case for adopted children. In more recent periods, no effect of parental union sex composition on school progress is observed within any area or among any group studied. Based on where and when these changes took place, it is suggested that changing attitudes toward same-sex couples might have played an important role in equalizing school progress across groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The aim of this article is to document how childhood family structure is related to the accumulation of wealth. Background: Childhood family structure is a commonly studied determinant of child and adult outcomes, but little is known about its effects on wealth accumulation. Wealth is affected by a wide variety of factors, including human capital formation, family dynamics, and intergenerational transfers. Studying wealth therewith sheds light on how childhood family structure relates to the accumulation of advantages across life. Method: Data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 7,066) are employed to document wealth differences at ages 47 to 55. Growth curve models are estimated to understand at what ages these differences emerge. Results: A median wealth penalty of at least $61,600 at ages 47 to 55 is observed for individuals who did not live continuously with both parents from birth to age 18, depending on the alternative childhood family trajectory considered. A subsequent mediation analysis of the "wealth penalty" related to the permanent departure of a parent from the household during childhood points at human capital formation and own family dynamics as the primary channels through which wealth differences are produced; intergenerational transfers matter rather less. Conclusion: Childhood family structure has moderate effects on multiple different life domains that accrue during the life course and collectively add up to a more considerable penalty in wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine whether the presence of non-intact families in society is related to increased inequality in educational attainment according to social background, as suggested by the ‘diverging destinies’ thesis. We analyze four countries, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States, that differ in the prevalence of non-intact families and in the strength of the negative association between growing up in a non-intact family and children's educational attainment. We use a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition approach to calculate a ‘counterfactual’ estimate of differences in educational attainment between socioeconomically advantaged and disadvantaged children in the hypothetical absence of non-intact families. Contrary to the diverging destinies thesis, we find little differences between actual and ‘counterfactual’ levels of inequality in educational attainment in all four countries. Whereas growing-up in a non-intact family affects the individual chances of educational attainment, the overall contribution of non-intact families to aggregate levels of social background inequality appears minimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 21 August 1962 an earthquake sequence set off near the city of Benevento, in Italy's southern Apennines. Three earthquakes, the largest having M w 6.1, struck virtually the same area in less than 40 min (at 18:09, 18:19 and 18:44 UTC, respectively). Several historical earthquakes hit this region, and its seismic hazard is accordingly among the highest countrywide. Although poorly understood in the past, the seismotectonics of this region can be revealed by the 1962 sequence, being the only significant earthquake in the area for which modern seismograms are available. We determine location, magnitude, and nodal planes of the first event (18:09 UTC) of the sequence. The focal mechanism exhibits dominant strike-slip rupture along a north-dipping, E-W striking plane or along a west-dipping, N-S striking plane. Either of these solutions is significantly different from the kinematics of the typical large earthquakes occurring along the crest of the Southern Apennines, such as the 23 November 1980 Irpinia earthquake (M w 6.9), caused by predominant normal faulting along NW-SE-striking planes. The epicentre of the 21 August 1962, 18:09 event is located immediately east of the chain axis, near one of the three north-dipping, E-W striking oblique-slip sources thought to have caused one of the three main events of the December 1456 sequence (I o XI MCS), the most destructive events in the southern Apennines known to date. We maintain that the 21 August 1962, 18:09 earthquake occurred along the E-W striking fault system responsible for the southernmost event of the 1456 sequence and for two smaller but instrumentally documented events that occurred on 6 May 1971 (M w 5.0) and 27 September 2012 (M w 4.6), further suggesting that normal faulting is not the dominant tectonic style in this portion of the Italian peninsula. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper is to investigate the consequences of the expansion of higher education on two goals of the education system, namely promoting equity of educational opportunities and providing credentials that facilitate the matching of labour supply and demand. The first goal is typically studied by research on inequality of educational opportunity; the second by research on returns to education and credential inflation. The key idea of the paper is that educational expansion can have different and possibly opposite effects on the two goals. (a) If, with educational expansion, equality of educational opportunities increases, while the occupational value of the titles decreases, one has a trade-off scenario. For example, an increase in equality of educational opportunities is matched by a decline in the value of higher education in the labour market. (b) If equality of opportunities does not increase, despite the expansion of higher education, and the returns of higher education degrees decline, one has then a worst-off scenario. (c) Finally, if with educational expansion equality of opportunities increases and there is no credential inflation, one has a best-off scenario. In this paper, we systematically investigate these alternative scenarios. We perform the same empirical analysis on two distinct data sets in order to test the robustness of our findings. We use micro data from EU-SILC 2005 and from the five merged waves of the European Social Survey (2002–2010), covering 23 countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the impact of school performance (primary effects) and the structure of costs and benefits that individuals of different social class face (secondary effects) on the transition from compulsory to non-compulsory education in Spain. We find that both predictors of educational paths seem to operate through an interactive effect, which contributes to reproducing educational inequalities. This interaction suggests that school performance is not interpreted in the same way by individuals from different social classes. In concrete, the resources and social capital of upper class families provide compensation effects leading to a greater probability of students from upper classes with poor grades reaching post-compulsory secondary education and higher education in comparison to lower class students with the equivalent grades. Therefore, inequality by social class of origin is greatest among students with the lowest grades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the impact of school performance (primary effects) and the structure of costs and benefits that individuals of different social class face (secondary effects) on the transition from compulsory to non-compulsory education in Spain. We find that both predictors of educational paths seem to operate through an interactive effect, which contributes to reproducing educational inequalities. This interaction suggests that school performance is not interpreted in the same way by individuals from different social classes. In concrete, the resources and social capital of upper class families provide compensation effects leading to a greater probability of students from upper classes with poor grades reaching post-compulsory secondary education and higher education in comparison to lower class students with the equivalent grades. Therefore, inequality by social class of origin is greatest among students with the lowest grades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compensatory advantage is a mechanism of social stratification that complements cumulative advantage and path dependence. In this article, I first discuss the theoretical foundations of the compensatory advantage and path dependence mechanisms and the methodological challenges that complicate identification of their effects. Next, I present a practical demonstration of the use of the compensatory advantage theoretical framework, with a regression discontinuity design estimating the probability of being continuously promoted throughout primary education in France. Results indicate that students born just before the cutoff date for primary school entry, who are consequently the youngest in the class when starting school, face a larger risk of grade repetition. In line with theoretical predictions of the compensatory advantage model, the risk is much smaller for students born to highly educated parents compared to students whose parents have lower educational attainment. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: We consider a network of telescopes capable of scanning all the observable sky each night and targeting Near-Earth objects (NEOs) in the size range of the Tunguska-like asteroids, from 160m down to 10m. We measure the performance of this telescope network in terms of the time needed to discover at least 50% of the impactors in the considered population with a warning time large enough to undertake proper mitigation actions. The warning times are described by a trimodal distribution and the telescope network has a 50% probability of discovering an impactor of the Tunguska class with at least one week of advance already in the first 10yr of operations of the survey. These results suggest that the studied survey would be a significant addition to the current NEO discovery efforts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article provides an analysis of employment and occupational attainment of recent immigrants to Spain. We use data from the Spanish labour force surveys for the years between 2002 and 2007 and compare the probability of being active versus inactive and that of being employed versus unemployed among immigrants and native-born Spaniards, using logistic regression models. The paper then moves on to investigate the quality of the occupation achieved by means of multinomial logistic regression models. We find evidence that immigrants are not at a disadvantage in comparison to native-born Spaniards regarding the risk of unemployment. This is true even after controlling for differences in socio-demographic characteristics between immigrants and Spaniards and, in particular, after accounting for the duration of time spent in the labour market. On the other hand, a strong and persistent disadvantage even after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics is confirmed for immigrants as far as their access to skilled occupations is concerned. Furthermore, this disadvantage does not disappear as time spent in the host country increases. Our findings, thus, go against the assimilation hypothesis that predicts that immigrant's occupational attainment should progressively converge to that of natives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the risk of occupying an unskilled job for young people in Spain over the last 30 years. In order to study change over time, all of the quarters of the Spanish Labor Force Survey have been used, from the third quarter of 1976 to the third quarter of 2007.The results show that the likelihood of having an unskilled job has decreased slightly. The logit regressions highlight: I) the continuing importance of education in helping avoidance of the worst jobs; 2) greater equality of the sexes; and 3) nationality as a new and significant structuring factor of inequality. We have complemented the in-depth analysis for Spain with a comparative analysis for 24 countries using data from the European Labor Force Survey of 2005. Our findings demonstrate that there are more unskilled jobs in Spain in comparison with the other 23 countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the surface wave dispersion results of the application of the ambient noise method to broad-band data recorded at 114 stations from the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) national broad-band network, some stations of the Mediterranean Very Broadband Seismographic Network (MedNet) and of the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG). Vertical-component ambient noise data from 2005 October to 2007 March have been cross-correlated for station-pairs to estimate fundamental mode Rayleigh wave Green's functions. Cross-correlations are calculated in 1-hr segments, stacked over periods varying between 3 months and 1.5 yr. Rayleigh wave group dispersion curves at periods from 8 to 44 s were determined using the multiple-filter analysis technique. The study region was divided into a grid to invert for group velocity distributions. Checkerboard tests were first carried out, and the lateral resolution was estimated to be about 0.6°. The resulting group velocity maps from 8 to 36 s show the significant difference of the crustal structure and good correlations with known geological and tectonic features in the study region. The Po Plain and the Southern Alps evidence lower group velocities due to soft alluvial deposits, and thick terrigenous sediments. Our results also clearly showed that the Tyrrhenian Sea is characterized with much higher velocities below 8 km than the Italian peninsula and the Adriatic Sea which indicates a thin oceanic crust beneath the Tyrrhenian Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years the decline in fertility and the difficulties faced by individuals in having the desired number of children have gained growing attention in the academic and public debate. The aim of the present paper is twofold. The first is to scrutinize the rationale and the justification of public support for individual fertility choices. This means addressing the question of why low fertility should be a problem of public concern. This is crucial because, depending on the answer, one can identify how much the actual low level of fertility should increase and which groups of the population should be addressed. The second aim of the paper is to apply the general discussion of public policies and fertility to the Spanish case. Spain is the country where the ‘child gap’, i.e. the average difference between desired and actual children, is most acute. In 1995, the average desired number of children for women aged 18–49 years was about 2.2, while the observed total fertility rate was 1.2. Thus, the Spanish ‘child gap’ is, on average, around one child per woman. The analysis of the Spanish case will be divided into two steps. First, I will try to identify who is having fewer children than the desired number and review the different explanations of why this is happening. Second, I will examine various public policies related to fertility that have been implemented in other countries and discuss their efficacy and applicability in a country with a deeply different socio-economic structure, such as Spain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We produce fast and automatic moment tensor solutions for all moderate to strong earthquakes in the European-Mediterranean region. The procedure automatically screens near real-time earthquake alerts provided by a large number of agencies. Each event with magnitude triggers an automatic request for near real-time data at several national and international data centres. Moment tensor inversion is performed using complete regional long-period (50–100 s) waveforms. Initially the data are inverted for a fixed depth to remove traces with a low signal-to-noise ratio. The remaining data are then inverted for several trial depths to find the best-fitting depth. Solutions are produced within 90 min of an earthquake. We analyse the results for the period 2000 April to 2002 April to evaluate the performance of the procedure. For quality assessment, we compared the results with the independent Swiss regional moment tensor catalogue (SRMT), and divided the 87 moment tensor solutions into three groups: 38 A-quality solutions with well-resolved , depth and focal mechanism; 21 B-quality solutions with well-resolved ; and 28 unreliable C-quality solutions. The non-homogeneous station and event distributions, varying noise level, and inaccurate earthquake locations affected solution quality. For larger events we consistently obtained A-quality solutions. For we obtained A- and B-quality solutions. Solutions that pass empirical rules mimicking the a posteriori quality for our data set are automatically disseminated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recently discovered near-Earth asteroid 2021 PH27 has the shortest orbital period of all known asteroids. It cannot be excluded that 2021 PH27 is also an active asteroid, as (3200) Phaethon. We intend to estimate the consequences of this hypothesis, although testing is difficult with ground-based observations during perihelion passages, due to low solar elongation. Assuming a surface activity similar to that of Phaethon, an increase in brightness of about 1.4 mag can be estimated. Since it is an asteroid with a minimum orbit intersection distance of 0.014660 ± 0.000034 au with Venus, 2021 PH27 could be the equivalent of Phaethon for the Earth and be the progenitor body of a Venusian meteor shower. A good opportunity to observe the hypothetical fireballs in Venus's atmosphere will take place on the days around 2023 June 7, when Venus will pass at the minimum distance from the nominal orbit of 2021 PH27. Another favourable date will be 2026 July 5. Finally, on 2022 March 28, the asteroid will also be at the maximum Sun elongation of about 52 |${_{.}^{\circ}}$| 3 and at the aphelion of its orbit, the most favourable configuration to characterize it from the physical point of view with photometric, polarimetric, and spectroscopic observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The asteroid 2003 EH1, proposed as the parent body of the Quadrantid meteor shower, is thought to be the remnant of a past cometary object, tentatively identified with the historical comets C/1490 Y1 and C/1385 U1. In this work, we use recovery astrometry to extend the observed arc of 2003 EH1 from 10 months to about 5 years, enough to exclude the proposed direct relationship of the asteroid with both of the comets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the joint consequences of the COVID‐19 pandemic for fertility and birth outcomes by drawing on full population administrative data from Spain. We find a surprising improvement in birth outcomes in November and to a less extent in December 2020 (eight to nine months after the first wave of the pandemic) compared with monthly trends in the 10 previous years (2010–2019). The improvement in birth outcomes was shortly followed by a decline in fertility, which concentrated on first births, births to women without a tertiary degree, and births to young and old mothers, respectively. These findings are consistent with the idea that the pandemic selectively affected conception, which showed up first as an improvement in birth outcomes due to the missing conceptions of frail‐children‐to‐be (preterm and low birth weight) and then as a lowered fertility rate due to the missing conception of at‐term children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose an adaptation of the semilinear algorithm for the prediction of the impact corridor on ground of an Earth-impacting asteroid. The proposed algorithm provides an efficient tool, able to reliably predict the impact regions at fixed altitudes above ground with 5 orders of magnitudes less computations than Monte Carlo approaches. Efficiency is crucial when dealing with imminent impactors, which are characterised by high impact probabilities and impact times very close to the times of discovery. The case of 2008 TC3 is a remarkable example, but there are also recent cases of imminent impactors, 2018 LA and 2019 MO, for which the method has been successfully used. Moreover, its good performances make the tool suitable also for the analysis of the impact regions on ground of objects with a more distant impact time, even of the order of many years, as confirmed by the test performed with the first batch of observations of Apophis, giving the possibility of an impact 25 years after its discovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work we summarize the initial results of a targeted effort of the ESA NEO Coordination Centre to obtain additional observational data in order to eliminate or reduce the impact probability estimate of a subset of the known near-Earth objects representing the highest fraction of the total known impact risk, as measured by the Palermo Scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The discovery of new objects in modern wide-field asteroid and comet surveys can be enhanced by first identifying observations belonging to known Solar System objects. The assignation of new observations to a known object is an attribution problem that occurs when a least squares orbit already exists for the object but a separate fit is not possible to just the set of new observations. In this work we explore the strongly asymmetric attribution problem in which the existing least squares orbit is very well constrained and the new data are sparse. We describe an attribution algorithm that introduces new quality control metrics in the presence of strong biases in the astrometric residuals. The main biases arise from the stellar catalogs used in the reduction of asteroid observations and we show that a simple debiasing with measured regional catalog biases significantly improves the results. We tested the attribution algorithm using data from the PS1 survey that used the 2MASS star catalog for the astrometric reduction. We found small but statistically significant biases in the data of up to 0.1arcsec that are relevant only when the observations reach the level of accuracy made possible by instruments like PS1. The false attribution rate was measured to be <1/1000 with a simple additional condition that can reduce it to zero while the attribution efficiency is consistent with 100%. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The potentially hazardous Asteroid (101955) 1999 has a possibility of colliding with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities accumulate to a total impact probability of approximately , with a pair of closely related routes to impact in 2182 comprising more than half of the total. The analysis of impact possibilities so far in the future is strongly dependent on the action of the Yarkovsky effect, which raises new challenges in the careful assessment of longer term impact hazards. Even for asteroids with very precisely determined orbits, a future close approach to Earth can scatter the possible trajectories to the point that the problem becomes like that of a newly discovered asteroid with a weakly determined orbit. If the scattering takes place late enough so that the target plane uncertainty is dominated by Yarkovsky accelerations then the thermal properties of the asteroid, which are typically unknown, play a major role in the impact assessment. In contrast, if the strong planetary interaction takes place sooner, while the Yarkovsky dispersion is still relatively small compared to that derived from the measurements, then precise modeling of the nongravitational acceleration may be unnecessary. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We present the first observational measurement of the orbit and size distribution of small Solar System objects whose orbits are wholly interior to the Earth''s (Inner Earth Objects, IEOs, with aphelion <0.983 AU). We show that we are able to model the detections of near-Earth objects (NEO) by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) using a detailed parameterization of the CSS survey cadence and detection efficiencies as implemented within the Jedicke et al. [Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Spahr, T., Petit, J.M., Bottke, W.F., 2003. Icarus 161, 17–33] survey simulator and utilizing the Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399–433] model of the NEO population''s size and orbit distribution. We then show that the CSS detections of 4 IEOs are consistent with the Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399–433] IEO model. Observational selection effects for the IEOs discovered by the CSS were then determined using the survey simulator in order to calculate the corrected number and H distribution of the IEOs. The actual number of IEOs with (21) is () and the slope of the H magnitude distribution () for the IEOs is . The slope is consistent with previous measurements for the NEO population of [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399–433] and [Stuart, J.S., Binzel, R.P., 2004. Icarus 170, 295–311]. Based on the agreement between the predicted and observed IEO orbit and absolute magnitude distributions there is no indication of any non-gravitational effects (e.g. Yarkovsky, tidal disruption) affecting the known IEO population. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Profound social and economic transformations have taken place over the last two decades in modern societies. These changes are often referred to as globalization. The aim of this article is to examine whether processes of globalization have produced increasing convergence of employment-related aspects of national-level welfare regimes, industrial relation systems and mid-career employment paths among a set of industrialized nations. A theory of convergence is developed to explain the coercive-isomorphic and mimetic-imitation effects of globalization, followed by potential reasons for growing divergence. The study concludes that globalization has produced 'converging divergences' and not resulted in a simple convergence based on neoliberal and market employment- related policies that leads to a rise of patchwork careers for all employees. Rather, it has served to intensify existent differences between industrial relations in the welfare regime clusters of countries and accentuated within-country occupational class, educational and gender inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid tsunami forecasting is affected by large uncertainty, especially in the very first minutes after a potentially causative seismic event, when very limited seismic and tsunami data are still available. Given the potentially large cost of risk reduction measures, it is highly preferable to base potential Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures on solid decision making that account for the intrinsic and unavoidable uncertainty of the short-term tsunami forecasts on which Tsunami Early Warning operations are based. Here, we present the ongoing effort to introduce Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) in the Tsunami Early Warning operations of the Tsunami Warning Centre of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (CAT-INGV), which is also a Tsunami Service Provider for the NEAMTWS. To be effective also in the near-field and in relatively small seas like the Mediterranean, CAT-INGV operations need to be activated within few minutes after the potentially causative seismic event. PTF quantifies the impact distribution of the potentially ongoing tsunami by estimating in each forecast point a probability density function that characterizes the uncertainty on the potential maximum run-up that the ongoing tsunami may locally cause. We make extensive use of the tsunami simulations and the probabilistic estimates produced within the recent project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) that produced the first region-wide long-term homogenous Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment model from earthquake sources for the coastlines of the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM) region.To show that these probabilistic results may be correctly communicated and operationally used, we also discuss how PTF may be automatically connected to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) decisions (e.g. evacuation-yes/no) based on pre-defined rules that make explicit the distinction between the tasks of science (forecast and uncertainty quantification) and decision making (definition of acceptable risk and consequent actions). This process produces rational decision making under uncertainty leads to trackable and justifiable a posteriori decisions.The work is funded by the Agreement between Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]