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7. Proximate Causes of Forest Degradation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Vary in Space and Time

Author

Shapiro, Aurélie C., Bernhard, Katie P., Zenobi, Stefano, Müller, Daniel, Aguilar-Amuchastegui, Naikoa, and d'Annunzio, Rémi

Subjects
panel model, forest condition, ddc:570, ddc:330, conservation, forest disturbance, 570 Biologie, conservation planning, panel models, forest degradation drivers, spatial statistics
Abstract

Forest degradation, generally defined as a reduction in the delivery of forest ecosystem services, can have long-term impacts on biodiversity, climate, and local livelihoods. The quantification of forest degradation, its dynamics and proximate causes can help prompt early action to mitigate carbon emissions and inform relevant land use policies. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is largely forested with a relatively low deforestation rate, but anthropogenic degradation has been increasing in recent years. We assess the impact of eight independent variables related to land cover, land use, infrastructure, armed conflicts, and accessibility on forest degradation, measured by the Forest Condition (FC) index, a measure of forest degradation based on biomass history and fragmentation that ranges from 0 (completely deforested) to 100 (intact). We employ spatial panel models with fixed effects using regular 25 × 25 km units over five 3-year intervals from 2002 to 2016. The regression results suggest that the presence of swamp ecosystems, low access (defined by high travel time), and forest concessions are associated with lower forest degradation, while built up area, fire frequency, armed conflicts result in greater forest degradation. The impact of neighboring units on FC shows that all variables within the 50 km spatial neighborhood have a greater effect on FC than the on-site spatial determinants, indicating the greater influence of drivers beyond the 25 km2 unit. In the case of protected areas, we unexpectedly find that protection in neighboring locations leads to higher forest degradation, suggesting a potential leakage effect, while protected areas in the local vicinity have a positive influence on FC. The Mann-Kendall trend statistic of occurrences of fires and conflicts over the time period and until 2020 show that significant increases in conflicts and fires are spatially divergent. Overall, our results highlight how assessing the proximate causes of forest degradation with spatiotemporal analysis can support targeted interventions and policies to reduce forest degradation but spillover effects of proximal drivers in neighboring areas need to be considered.

Published
2021
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9. Proximate Causes of Forest Degradation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Vary in Space and Time

Author

Shapiro, Aurélie, Bernhard, Katie P., Zenobi, Stefano, Müller, Daniel, Aguilar-Amuchastegui, Naikoa, d'Annunzio, Rémi, Shapiro, Aurélie, Bernhard, Katie P., Zenobi, Stefano, Müller, Daniel, Aguilar-Amuchastegui, Naikoa, and d'Annunzio, Rémi

Abstract

Forest degradation, generally defined as a reduction in the delivery of forest ecosystem services, can have long-term impacts on biodiversity, climate, and local livelihoods. The quantification of forest degradation, its dynamics and proximate causes can help prompt early action to mitigate carbon emissions and inform relevant land use policies. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is largely forested with a relatively low deforestation rate, but anthropogenic degradation has been increasing in recent years. We assess the impact of eight independent variables related to land cover, land use, infrastructure, armed conflicts, and accessibility on forest degradation, measured by the Forest Condition (FC) index, a measure of forest degradation based on biomass history and fragmentation that ranges from 0 (completely deforested) to 100 (intact). We employ spatial panel models with fixed effects using regular 25 × 25 km units over five 3-year intervals from 2002 to 2016. The regression results suggest that the presence of swamp ecosystems, low access (defined by high travel time), and forest concessions are associated with lower forest degradation, while built up area, fire frequency, armed conflicts result in greater forest degradation. The impact of neighboring units on FC shows that all variables within the 50 km spatial neighborhood have a greater effect on FC than the on-site spatial determinants, indicating the greater influence of drivers beyond the 25 km2 unit. In the case of protected areas, we unexpectedly find that protection in neighboring locations leads to higher forest degradation, suggesting a potential leakage effect, while protected areas in the local vicinity have a positive influence on FC. The Mann-Kendall trend statistic of occurrences of fires and conflicts over the time period and until 2020 show that significant increases in conflicts and fires are spatially divergent. Overall, our results highlight how assessing the proximate causes of forest deg, Peer Reviewed

Published
2021

12. Effects of integrated conservation–development projects on unauthorized resource use in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda: a mixed-methods spatio-temporal approach.

Author

Bernhard, Katie P., Smith, Thomas E. L., Sabuhoro, Edwin, Nyandwi, Elias, and Munanura, Ian E.

Subjects
*NATIONAL parks & reserves, *VOLCANOES, *CONTRAST effect, *ECONOMETRICS, *REGRESSION analysis, *POACHING
Abstract

This study supplements spatial panel econometrics techniques with qualitative GIS to analyse spatio-temporal changes in the distribution of integrated conservation–development projects relative to poaching activity and unauthorized resource use in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. Cluster and spatial regression analyses were performed on data from ranger monitoring containing > 35,000 combined observations of illegal activities in Volcanoes National Park, against tourism revenue sharing and conservation NGO funding data for 2006–2015. Results were enriched with qualitative GIS analysis from key informant interviews. We found a statistically significant negative linear effect of overall integrated conservation–development investments on unauthorized resource use in Volcanoes National Park. However, individually, funding from Rwanda's tourism revenue sharing policy did not have an effect in contrast to the significant negative effect of conservation NGO funding. In another contrast between NGO funding and tourism revenue sharing funding, spatial analysis revealed significant gaps in revenue sharing funding relative to the hotspots of illegal activities, but these gaps were not present for NGO funding. Insight from qualitative GIS analysis suggests that incongruity in prioritization by decision makers at least partly explains the differences between the effects of revenue sharing and conservation NGO investment. Although the overall results are encouraging for integrated conservation–development projects, we recommend increased spatial alignment of project funding with clusters of illegal activities, which can make investment decision-making more data-driven and projects more effective for conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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14. The Potential of Tourism Benefits to Reduce Forest Dependence Behavior of Impoverished Residents Adjacent to Volcanoes National Park in Rwanda

Author

Munanura, Ian E., Backman, Kenneth F., Sabuhoro, Edwin, and Bernhard, Katie P.

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe relationship between protected forested areas and neighboring residents in developing countries has been one of conflict. Tourism has both direct and indirect benefits to residents neighboring protected areas, and it can be one of the most innovative ways to resolve human-wildlife conflicts and achieve long-term conservation goals. However, the effectiveness of direct and indirect benefits of tourism has not been settled in the literature. In this paper, the case of the Volcanoes national park is used to empirically examine the conservation effectiveness of direct and indirect tourism benefits for poor residents neighboring the park. Results indicate that direct tourism benefits have more potential to influence change in forest-dependent behavior when the behavior is driven by food security constraints. Additionally, the results suggest that the potential to reduce forest dependence is possible if both direct and indirect tourism benefits are aimed to address health, education and food security risks of poor households in proximity to VNP.

Published
2020
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