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The Swiss Supreme Court ruled in 2002 that the parliamentary election in Zurich State violated the country's constitution. The disputed old system allocated seats to the parties according to their [...]

The advent of satellite tracking and communications technology has motivated organizations to investigate centralized real-time support for remote and mobile units and operations. Transportation companies have begun to use satellite tracking systems, production and energy plants are employing intelligent monitoring systems, and on-site emergency managers are being supported by headquarters in their assessment and decision making process. Although different reasoning logics have been proposed for real-time decision making, little attention has been given to the comparative assessment of these approaches. This paper presents empirical evidence on the impact of alternative reasoning logics on individual decision making in real-time. Following the definition of the decision tasks for hazardous operations, commonly used reasoning logics are discussed. Then, results of an empirical comparison of different reasoning approaches are presented. The data were gathered during an experiment with experienced operators. The conclusions of this research are that the selection of the appropriate reasoning logic in support of real-time decision making is crucial. Index Terms - Accuracy, decision support systems, effort, operational risk management, time pressure.

Dispatchers of hazardous material transports can keep track of vehicular movement on a transportation network in real time with the use of tracking systems relying on sophisticated communications and computing technology. This technology can help dispatchers map the regions surrounding the transportation network in case of unexpected events, and plan safe and cost-efficient alternative routes for the hazardous material transports scheduled to pass through the affected regions. Four decision models for rerouting such vehicles have been tested in an experimental setting. The first two models enable the dispatcher to make decisions by presenting alternative routes, while the other two supports the dispatcher in assessing the effects of the events on transportation safety and costs.

The need for more effective ways to manage the risk and safety of technological systems has been widely recognized and accepted by government and industry. Traditionally, risk analysis has been considered as part of the process of planning a technological system and addressed the risk inherent in its day-to-day operations. However, risk must also be considered when responding to episodic events whose uniqueness requires taking actions that are variants of, or different from planned operational procedures. The purpose of this paper is to present a new paradigm for real-time risk analysis that capitalizes upon the advances in computer power, human-machine interfaces, and communication technology. A new process for risk assessment and an appropriate reasoning algorithm for choice has been developed which supports the human operator in analyzing risks and making decisions in real-time during unexpected disruptions in the operations of large-scale systems. The process recognizes that although advances in technology may automate many tasks, humans will always be an integral part of managing large-scale systems. The practical realism of the new approach of operational risk management is illustrated by two examples, hazardous material transportation and emergency management. The first example is discussed within the context of a prototype decision support system for interactive real-time risk management. Index Terms - Risk assessment, risk management, real-time operational control, ordinal analysis, decision support systems.

A real-time routing model for hazardous substances is introduced. Real-time guidance has been made significant by the increasing complexity in hazardous materials transportation, the lack of resources to undertake extensive data collection for strategic route selection and the change in dispatching brought about by the commercialization of modern tracking and communications systems.

Byline: Giampiero E.G. Beroggi The complex interactions and the increasing extent of human activities motivate safety planners to switch the focus from the source-oriented safety management approach to regional sustainable development. Traditional safety management is oriented toward technological systems, whereas sustainable management is approached from a regional perspective. Consequently, safety issues in sustainable management can be addressed in the context of regional safety management at three levels: macro (policy level), meso (organisational level), and micro (operational level). The management process, at all three levels, can be divided into two phases: analysis and decision-making. In addition to this switch in paradigm, advanced information and communications technologies have a major impact on management practice, at all three levels, both for analysis and decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to address the potential impact of new information and communications technologies on regional safety management, and the necessary ramifications for organisations and institutions to benefit in an optimal way from these imminent changes. The paper ends with a research agenda referring to development issues and implementations at the macro, meso, and micro level.

Byline: Giampiero E.G. Beroggi, May Levy, Elisabeth Pastor Cardinet We report on an empirically derived model for innovation indicators that enables a better measure and promotion of innovation. The model has been derived through an internet-based Delphi assessment, involving up to 32 experts. The first two Delphi rounds (April 2004-March 2005) were held through the internet and the third round (May 2005) was organised as a workshop in a face-to-face meeting. As a result of the Delphi assessment, we could derive a model of the innovation system with very high consensus among the experts. This model will make it possible in a next step to define innovation indicators that will enable policymakers to analyse the innovation system and monitor its evolution. A comparison with the European Innovation Scoreboard indicators shows that more indicators than used nowadays will have to be defined to make the model operational.

Byline: Giampiero E.G. Beroggi, Volker G. Taube, May Levy The rapid development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and the continuous change of technological developments, societal values and political attitudes pose major challenges to the measurability of the value of ICT for society. The Swiss Federal Statistical Office (SFSO) addressed this problem as part of Work Package 6.1 of the EU 5th Framework Project SEAMATE (Socio-Economic Analysis and Macro-Modelling of Adapting to Information Technologies in Europe). SFSO's contribution to this international project is the development of a new conceptual scheme for identifying indicators to measure the impacts of ICT on society and the business world. The method is based on a new paradigm for developing statistical indicators, relying on an inductive and hypothesis-driven approach, where the policy makers and the users of ICT are placed at the centre of the model.

Byline: Giampiero E.G. Beroggi The modelling paradigm of structured modelling is based on a systematic identification of the elements and their relations in a system under investigation. The advent of user-friendly computation and information technologies has promoted the concept of structured modelling. Different modelling paradigms have been developed, including systems thinking, soft systems approach, and influence diagrams. This paper introduces the concept of visual interactive decision modelling (VIDEMO) for energy policy and management. The VIDEMO concept is based on the formal aspects of structured modelling and are operationalised in the VIDEMO system. Selected policy and management problems in the energy field are addressed in the context of VIDEMO.

Byline: David Mendonca, Giampiero E.G. Beroggi, William A. Wallace Emergency response organisations are faced with complex, unpredictable events with the risk of catastrophic losses. To assist emergency response organisations in responding to these events, new models must be developed and the traditional command and control structure of decision-making must be revised to accommodate greater flexibility and creativity by teams. In this paper, we propose the concept of decision support for improvisation in emergency management. The concept is based on the paradigm of operational risk management and is motivated by the observation that emergency response organisations must be prepared to improvise during response activities. The process of emergency response in light of this new concept is first discussed and opportunities for supporting the process identified. We conclude with a review of a project at the Port of Rotterdam, where we are currently assessing this new decision making approach for emergency management.

Byline: Yasushi Ikeda, Giampiero E.G. Beroggi, William A. Wallace An evaluation of a prototype Multi-Group Operational Risk Management Decision Aid (MGORMDA) in an exercise environment is presented. The exercise follows the scenario of a drill that was conducted at Niagara Mohawk Nine Mile Point Nuclear Power Station Unit 2, in New York State. Several incidents were simulated, where the emergency operations room of the plant had to deal with the damage and restore the plant to normal operations. The MGORMDA system was programmed in a multimedia environment on a local area network. Two exercises were performed with experienced emergency managers. Reaction times to make decisions in the distributed setting confirmed the user-friendliness and real-time capability of the system. The employed decision logic turned out to be effective if enough training is provided. The prototype demonstrated its potential for improving decision-making, resulting in better emergency operations room management.

Discusses the proposed dynamic and adaptive preference aggregation decision making models for operational risk management. Models for cardinal and ordinal assessments; Validation of the mechanical aspects of the models; Flexibility of the models to account for behavioral considerations.

The article discusses the use of the Visual Interactive Decision Modeling (VIDEMO) for problem solving in education. Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands, launched the first European educational program in MS/OR-based policy analysis in 1992. The program was established within the university's new School of Systems Engineering, Policy Analysis, and Management. The school based the program on developments in three areas: policy analysis, OR/MS theory, and information systems. Developing the ability to study complex policy problems requires knowledge of these three areas. VIDEMO help students learn modeling skills at the intersection of the three domains. VIDEMO is intended to provide an integrated approach with respect to: Problem perception via defining the six basic elements that serve as the modeling blocks for decision modeling; OR/MS modeling via a three-step analytic modeling process; Information systems via a hypermedia environment that allows the integration of conceptual modeling and OR/MS tools.