Search

The LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) Collaboration has made breakthrough discoveries in gravitational-wave astronomy, a new field that provides a different means of observing our Universe. Gravitational-wave discoveries are possible thanks to the work of thousands of people from across the globe working together. In this article, we discuss the range of engagement activities used to communicate LVK gravitational-wave discoveries and the stories of the people behind the science, using the activities surrounding the release of the third Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog as a case study., Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, published in JCOM: https://doi.org/10.22323/2.23070803

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is the first scientific endeavour to detect and study gravitational waves from space. LISA will survey the sky for Gravitational Waves in the 0.1 mHz to 1 Hz frequency band which will enable the study of a vast number of objects ranging from Galactic binaries and stellar mass black holes in the Milky Way, to distant massive black-hole mergers and the expansion of the Universe. This definition study report, or Red Book, presents a summary of the very large body of work that has been undertaken on the LISA mission over the LISA definition phase., Comment: 155 pages, with executive summary and table of contents

The first successful detection of gravitational waves by ground-based observatories, such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), marked a revolutionary breakthrough in our comprehension of the Universe. However, due to the unprecedented sensitivity required to make such observations, gravitational-wave detectors also capture disruptive noise sources called glitches, potentially masking or appearing as gravitational-wave signals themselves. To address this problem, a community-science project, Gravity Spy, incorporates human insight and machine learning to classify glitches in LIGO data. The machine learning classifier, integrated into the project since 2017, has evolved over time to accommodate increasing numbers of glitch classes. Despite its success, limitations have arisen in the ongoing LIGO fourth observing run (O4) due to its architecture's simplicity, which led to poor generalization and inability to handle multi-time window inputs effectively. We propose an advanced classifier for O4 glitches. Our contributions include evaluating fusion strategies for multi-time window inputs, using label smoothing to counter noisy labels, and enhancing interpretability through attention module-generated weights. This development seeks to enhance glitch classification, aiding in the ongoing exploration of gravitational-wave phenomena.

The Gravity Spy project aims to uncover the origins of glitches, transient bursts of noise that hamper analysis of gravitational-wave data. By using both the work of citizen-science volunteers and machine-learning algorithms, the Gravity Spy project enables reliable classification of glitches. Citizen science and machine learning are intrinsically coupled within the Gravity Spy framework, with machine-learning classifications providing a rapid first-pass classification of the dataset and enabling tiered volunteer training, and volunteer-based classifications verifying the machine classifications, bolstering the machine-learning training set and identifying new morphological classes of glitches. These classifications are now routinely used in studies characterizing the performance of the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors. Providing the volunteers with a training framework that teaches them to classify a wide range of glitches, as well as additional tools to aid their investigations of interesting glitches, empowers them to make discoveries of new classes of glitches. This demonstrates that, when giving suitable support, volunteers can go beyond simple classification tasks to identify new features in data at a level comparable to domain experts. The Gravity Spy project is now providing volunteers with more complicated data that includes auxiliary monitors of the detector to identify the root cause of glitches., Comment: 33 pages, 5 figures, published in European Physical Journal Plus for focus issue on "Citizen science for physics: From Education and Outreach to Crowdsourcing fundamental research"

Recent gravitational-wave transient catalogs have used \pastro{}, the probability that a gravitational-wave candidate is astrophysical, to select interesting candidates for further analysis. Unlike false alarm rates, which exclusively capture the statistics of the instrumental noise triggers, \pastro{} incorporates the rate at which triggers are generated by both astrophysical signals and instrumental noise in estimating the probability that a candidate is astrophysical. Multiple search pipelines can independently calculate \pastro{}, each employing a specific data reduction. While the range of \pastro{} results can help indicate the range of uncertainties in its calculation, it complicates interpretation and subsequent analyses. We develop a statistical formalism to calculate a \emph{unified} \pastro{} for gravitational-wave candidates, consistently accounting for triggers from all pipelines, thereby incorporating extra information about a signal that is not available with any one single pipeline. We demonstrate the properties of this method using a toy model and by application to the publicly available list of gravitational-wave candidates from the first half of the third LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing run. Adopting a unified \pastro{} for future catalogs would provide a simple and easy-to-interpret selection criterion that incorporates a more complete understanding of the strengths of the different search pipelines, Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables

The maximum mass of black holes formed in isolated binaries is determined by stellar winds and the interactions between the binary components. We consider for the first time fully self-consistent detailed stellar structure and binary evolution calculations in population-synthesis models and a new, qualitatively different picture emerges for the formation of black-hole binaries, compared to studies employing rapid population synthesis models. We find merging binary black holes can form with a non-negligible rate ($\sim 4\times10^{-7}\,M_\odot^{-1}$) at solar metallicity. Their progenitor stars with initial masses $\gtrsim 50\,M_\odot$ do not expand to supergiant radii, mostly avoiding significant dust-driven or luminous blue variable winds. Overall, the progenitor stars lose less mass in stellar winds, resulting in black holes as massive as $\sim 30\,M_\odot$, and, approximately half of them avoid a mass-transfer episode before forming the first-born black hole. Finally, binaries with initial periods of a few days, some of which may undergo episodes of Roche-lobe overflow mass transfer, result in mildly spinning first-born black holes, $\chi_\mathrm{BH1} \lesssim 0.2$, assuming efficient angular-momentum transport., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, manuscript submitted for publication

Gravitational wave observations of the inspiral of stellar-mass compact objects into massive black holes (MBHs), extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs), enable precision measurements of parameters such as the MBH mass and spin. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna is expected to detect sufficient EMRIs to probe the underlying source population, testing theories of the formation and evolution of MBHs and their environments. Population studies are subject to selection effects that vary across the EMRI parameter space, which bias inference results if unaccounted for. This bias can be corrected, but evaluating the detectability of many EMRI signals is computationally expensive. We mitigate this cost by (i) constructing a rapid and accurate neural network interpolator capable of predicting the signal-to-noise ratio of an EMRI from its parameters, and (ii) further accelerating detectability estimation with a neural network that learns the selection function, leveraging our first neural network for data generation. The resulting framework rapidly estimates the selection function, enabling a full treatment of EMRI detectability in population inference analyses. We apply our method to an astrophysically motivated EMRI population model, demonstrating the potential selection biases and subsequently correcting for them. Accounting for selection effects, we predict that LISA will measure the MBH mass function slope to a precision of 8.8%, the CO mass function slope to a precision of 4.6%, the width of the MBH spin magnitude distribution to a precision of 10% and the event rate to a precision of 12% with EMRIs at redshifts below z=6., Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures; changes to match published version

The formation histories of compact binary mergers, especially stellar-mass binary-black hole mergers, have recently come under increased scrutiny and revision. In this paper we revisit the question of the dominant formation channel and efficiency of forming binary neutron-star mergers. We use the stellar and binary evolution code MESA and implement an up-to-date and detailed method for common envelope and mass transfer. We preform simulations for donor masses between 8-20 solar masses with a neutron star companion of 1.4 and 2.0 solar masses, at two metallicities, using varying common envelope efficiencies, and two prescriptions for electron-capture supernovae. In contrast to the case of binary-black hole mergers, for a neutron star companion of 1.4 solar masses, all binary neutron star mergers are formed following a common envelope phase, while for a neutron star mass of 2.0 solar masses we identify a small subset of mergers following only stable mass transfer if the neutron star receives a large natal kick. Regardless of neutron star companion mass, we find that large supernova natal kicks are favored in the formation of binary neutron star mergers, and find more mergers at subsolar metallicity compared to solar., Comment: accepted to ApJ

A cognitive radar is a constrained utility maximizer that adapts its sensing mode in response to a changing environment. If an adversary can estimate the utility function of a cognitive radar, it can determine the radar's sensing strategy and mitigate the radar performance via electronic countermeasures (ECM). This paper discusses how a cognitive radar can {\em hide} its strategy from an adversary that detects cognition. The radar does so by transmitting purposefully designed sub-optimal responses to spoof the adversary's Neyman-Pearson detector. We provide theoretical guarantees by ensuring the Type-I error probability of the adversary's detector exceeds a pre-defined level for a specified tolerance on the radar's performance loss. We illustrate our cognition masking scheme via numerical examples involving waveform adaptation and beam allocation. We show that small purposeful deviations from the optimal strategy of the radar confuse the adversary by significant amounts, thereby masking the radar's cognition. Our approach uses novel ideas from revealed preference in microeconomics and adversarial inverse reinforcement learning. Our proposed algorithms provide a principled approach for system-level electronic counter-countermeasures (ECCM) to mask the radar's cognition, i.e., hide the radar's strategy from an adversary. We also provide performance bounds for our cognition masking scheme when the adversary has misspecified measurements of the radar's response.

There are few observed high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs) that harbor massive black holes, and none are likely to result in a binary black hole (BBH) that merges within a Hubble time; however, we know that massive merging BBHs exist from gravitational-wave observations. We investigate the role that X-ray and gravitational-wave observational selection effects play in determining the properties of their respective detected binary populations. We find that, as a result of selection effects, detectable HMXBs and detectable BBHs form at different redshifts and metallicities, with detectable HMXBs forming at much lower redshifts and higher metallicities than detectable BBHs. We also find disparities in the mass distributions of these populations, with detectable merging BBH progenitors pulling to higher component masses relative to the full detectable HMXB population. Fewer than $3\%$ of detectable HMXBs host black holes $> 35M_{\odot}$ in our simulated populations. Furthermore, we find the probability that a detectable HMXB will merge as a BBH system within a Hubble time is $\simeq 0.6\%$. Thus, it is unsurprising that no currently observed HMXB is predicted to form a merging BBH with high probability., Comment: ApJ, in press; 18 pages, 6 figures, 1 table

Mass measurements from low-mass black hole X-ray binaries (LMXBs) and radio pulsars have been used to identify a gap between the most massive neutron stars (NSs) and the least massive black holes (BHs). BH mass measurements in LMXBs are typically only possible for transient systems: outburst periods enable detection via all-sky X-ray monitors, while quiescent periods enable radial-velocity measurements of the low-mass donor. We quantitatively study selection biases due to the requirement of transient behavior for BH mass measurements. Using rapid population synthesis simulations (COSMIC), detailed binary stellar-evolution models (MESA), and the disk instability model of transient behavior, we demonstrate that transient-LMXB selection effects introduce observational biases, and can suppress mass-gap BHs in the observed sample. However, we find a population of transient LMXBs with mass-gap BHs form through accretion-induced collapse of a NS during the LMXB phase, which is inconsistent with observations. These results are robust against variations of binary evolution prescriptions. The significance of this accretion-induced collapse population depends upon the maximum NS birth mass $M_\mathrm{ NS, birth-max}$. To reflect the observed dearth of low-mass BHs, COSMIC and MESA models favor $M_\mathrm{ NS, birth-max} \lesssim2M_{\odot}$. In the absence of further observational biases against LMXBs with mass-gap BHs, our results indicate the need for additional physics connected to the modeling of LMXB formation and evolution., Comment: 21 pages, accepted to ApJ

Gravitational-wave observations of binary black hole (BBH) systems point to black hole spin magnitudes being relatively low. These measurements appear in tension with high spin measurements for high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs). We use grids of MESA simulations combined with the rapid population-synthesis code COSMIC to examine the origin of these two binary populations. It has been suggested that Case-A mass transfer while both stars are on the main sequence can form high-spin BHs in HMXBs. Assuming this formation channel, we show that depending on critical mass ratios for the stability of mass transfer, 48-100% of these Case-A HMXBs merge during the common-envelope phase and up to 42% result in binaries too wide to merge within a Hubble time. Both MESA and COSMIC show that high-spin HMXBs formed through Case-A mass transfer can only form merging BBHs within a small parameter space where mass transfer can lead to enough orbital shrinkage to merge within a Hubble time. We find that only up to 11% of these Case-A HMXBs result in BBH mergers, and at most 20% of BBH mergers came from Case-A HMXBs. Therefore, it is not surprising that these two spin distributions are observed to be different., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables; published ApJL

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) deals with estimating an agent's utility function from its actions. In this paper, we consider how an agent can hide its strategy and mitigate an adversarial IRL attack; we call this inverse IRL (I-IRL). How should the decision maker choose its response to ensure a poor reconstruction of its strategy by an adversary performing IRL to estimate the agent's strategy? This paper comprises four results: First, we present an adversarial IRL algorithm that estimates the agent's strategy while controlling the agent's utility function. Our second result for I-IRL result spoofs the IRL algorithm used by the adversary. Our I-IRL results are based on revealed preference theory in micro-economics. The key idea is for the agent to deliberately choose sub-optimal responses that sufficiently masks its true strategy. Third, we give a sample complexity result for our main I-IRL result when the agent has noisy estimates of the adversary specified utility function. Finally, we illustrate our I-IRL scheme in a radar problem where a meta-cognitive radar is trying to mitigate an adversarial target.

This paper considers meta-cognitive radars in an adversarial setting. A cognitive radar optimally adapts its waveform (response) in response to maneuvers (probes) of a possibly adversarial moving target. A meta-cognitive radar is aware of the adversarial nature of the target and seeks to mitigate the adversarial target. How should the meta-cognitive radar choose its responses to sufficiently confuse the adversary trying to estimate the radar's utility function? This paper abstracts the radar's meta-cognition problem in terms of the spectra (eigenvalues) of the state and observation noise covariance matrices, and embeds the algebraic Riccati equation into an economics-based utility maximization setup. This adversarial target is an inverse reinforcement learner. By observing a noisy sequence of radar's responses (waveforms), the adversarial target uses a statistical hypothesis test to detect if the radar is a utility maximizer. In turn, the meta-cognitive radar deliberately chooses sub-optimal responses that increasing its Type-I error probability of the adversary's detector. We call this counter-adversarial step taken by the meta-cognitive radar as inverse inverse reinforcement learning (I-IRL). We illustrate the meta-cognition results of this paper via simple numerical examples. Our approach for meta-cognition in this paper is based on revealed preference theory in micro-economics and inspired by results in differential privacy and adversarial obfuscation in machine learning.

Binary stars undergo a variety of interactions and evolutionary phases, critical for predicting and explaining observed properties. Binary population synthesis with full stellar-structure and evolution simulations are computationally expensive requiring a large number of mass-transfer sequences. The recently developed binary population synthesis code POSYDON incorporates grids of MESA binary star simulations which are then interpolated to model large-scale populations of massive binaries. The traditional method of computing a high-density rectilinear grid of simulations is not scalable for higher-dimension grids, accounting for a range of metallicities, rotation, and eccentricity. We present a new active learning algorithm, psy-cris, which uses machine learning in the data-gathering process to adaptively and iteratively select targeted simulations to run, resulting in a custom, high-performance training set. We test psy-cris on a toy problem and find the resulting training sets require fewer simulations for accurate classification and regression than either regular or randomly sampled grids. We further apply psy-cris to the target problem of building a dynamic grid of MESA simulations, and we demonstrate that, even without fine tuning, a simulation set of only $\sim 1/4$ the size of a rectilinear grid is sufficient to achieve the same classification accuracy. We anticipate further gains when algorithmic parameters are optimized for the targeted application. We find that optimizing for classification only may lead to performance losses in regression, and vice versa. Lowering the computational cost of producing grids will enable future versions of POSYDON to cover more input parameters while preserving interpolation accuracies., Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures, ApJ in press

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be a transformative experiment for gravitational wave astronomy, and, as such, it will offer unique opportunities to address many key astrophysical questions in a completely novel way. The synergy with ground-based and space-born instruments in the electromagnetic domain, by enabling multi-messenger observations, will add further to the discovery potential of LISA. The next decade is crucial to prepare the astrophysical community for LISA's first observations. This review outlines the extensive landscape of astrophysical theory, numerical simulations, and astronomical observations that are instrumental for modeling and interpreting the upcoming LISA datastream. To this aim, the current knowledge in three main source classes for LISA is reviewed; ultracompact stellar-mass binaries, massive black hole binaries, and extreme or intermediate mass ratio inspirals. The relevant astrophysical processes and the established modeling techniques are summarized. Likewise, open issues and gaps in our understanding of these sources are highlighted, along with an indication of how LISA could help making progress in the different areas. New research avenues that LISA itself, or its joint exploitation with upcoming studies in the electromagnetic domain, will enable, are also illustrated. Improvements in modeling and analysis approaches, such as the combination of numerical simulations and modern data science techniques, are discussed. This review is intended to be a starting point for using LISA as a new discovery tool for understanding our Universe.

Most massive stars are members of a binary or a higher-order stellar systems, where the presence of a binary companion can decisively alter their evolution via binary interactions. Interacting binaries are also important astrophysical laboratories for the study of compact objects. Binary population synthesis studies have been used extensively over the last two decades to interpret observations of compact-object binaries and to decipher the physical processes that lead to their formation. Here, we present POSYDON, a novel, binary population synthesis code that incorporates full stellar-structure and binary-evolution modeling, using the MESA code, throughout the whole evolution of the binaries. The use of POSYDON enables the self-consistent treatment of physical processes in stellar and binary evolution, including: realistic mass-transfer calculations and assessment of stability, internal angular-momentum transport and tides, stellar core sizes, mass-transfer rates and orbital periods. This paper describes the detailed methodology and implementation of POSYDON, including the assumed physics of stellar- and binary-evolution, the extensive grids of detailed single- and binary-star models, the post-processing, classification and interpolation methods we developed for use with the grids, and the treatment of evolutionary phases that are not based on pre-calculated grids. The first version of POSYDON targets binaries with massive primary stars (potential progenitors of neutron stars or black holes) at solar metallicity., Comment: 60 pages, 33 figures, 8 tables, referee's comments addressed. The code and the accompanying documentations and data products are available at https:\\posydon.org

The next generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors will observe coalescences of black holes and neutron stars throughout the cosmos, thousands of them with exceptional fidelity. The Science Book is the result of a 3-year effort to study the science capabilities of networks of next generation detectors. Such networks would make it possible to address unsolved problems in numerous areas of physics and astronomy, from Cosmology to Beyond the Standard Model of particle physics, and how they could provide insights into workings of strongly gravitating systems, astrophysics of compact objects and the nature of dense matter. It is inevitable that observatories of such depth and finesse will make new discoveries inaccessible to other windows of observation. In addition to laying out the rich science potential of the next generation of detectors, this report provides specific science targets in five different areas in physics and astronomy and the sensitivity requirements to accomplish those science goals. This report is the second in a six part series of reports by the GWIC 3G Subcommittee: i) Expanding the Reach of Gravitational Wave Observatories to the Edge of the Universe, ii) The Next Generation Global Gravitational Wave Observatory: The Science Book (this report), iii) 3G R&D: R&D for the Next Generation of Ground-based Gravitational Wave Detectors, iv) Gravitational Wave Data Analysis: Computing Challenges in the 3G Era, v) Future Ground-based Gravitational-wave Observatories: Synergies with Other Scientific Communities, and vi) An Exploration of Possible Governance Models for the Future Global Gravitational-Wave Observatory Network., Comment: 69 pages, 18 figures

We study how a cognitive radar can mask (hide) its cognitive ability from an adversarial jamming device. Specifically, if the radar optimally adapts its waveform based on adversarial target maneuvers (probes), how should the radar choose its waveform parameters (response) so that its utility function cannot be recovered by the adversary. This paper abstracts the radar's cognition masking problem in terms of the spectra (eigenvalues) of the state and observation noise covariance matrices, and embeds the algebraic Riccati equation into an economics-based utility maximization setup. Given an observed sequence of radar responses, the adversary tests for utility maximization behavior of the radar and estimates its utility function that rationalizes the radar's responses. In turn, the radar deliberately chooses sub-optimal responses so that its utility function almost fails the utility maximization test, and hence, its cognitive ability is masked from the adversary. We illustrate the performance of our cognition masking scheme via simple numerical examples. Our approach in this paper is based on revealed preference theory in microeconomics for identifying rationality.

The science objectives of the LISA mission have been defined under the implicit assumption of a 4 yr continuous data stream. Based on the performance of LISA Pathfinder, it is now expected that LISA will have a duty cycle of $\approx 0.75$, which would reduce the effective span of usable data to 3 yr. This paper reports the results of a study by the LISA Science Group, which was charged with assessing the additional science return of increasing the mission lifetime. We explore various observational scenarios to assess the impact of mission duration on the main science objectives of the mission. We find that the science investigations most affected by mission duration concern the search for seed black holes at cosmic dawn, as well as the study of stellar-origin black holes and of their formation channels via multi-band and multi-messenger observations. We conclude that an extension to 6 yr of mission operations is recommended., Comment: 50 pages, 19 figures, 5 tables. Matches version published in GERG

Rapid binary population synthesis codes are often used to investigate the evolution of compact-object binaries. They typically rely on analytical fits of single-star evolutionary tracks and parameterized models for interactive phases of evolution (e.g., mass-transfer on thermal timescale, determination of dynamical instability, and common envelope) that are crucial to predict the fate of binaries. These processes can be more carefully implemented in stellar structure and evolution codes such as MESA. To assess the impact of such improvements, we compare binary black hole mergers as predicted in models with the rapid binary population synthesis code COSMIC to models ran with MESA simulations through mass transfer and common-envelope treatment. We find that results significantly differ in terms of formation paths, the orbital periods and mass ratios of merging binary black holes, and consequently merger rates. While common-envelope evolution is the dominant formation channel in COSMIC, stable mass transfer dominates in our MESA models. Depending upon the black hole donor mass, and mass-transfer and common-envelope physics, at sub-solar metallicity COSMIC overproduces the number of binary black hole mergers by factors of 2--35 with a significant fraction of them having merger times orders of magnitude shorter than the binary black holes formed when using detailed MESA models. Therefore we find that some binary black hole merger rate predictions from rapid population syntheses of isolated binaries may be overestimated by factors of ~5--500. We conclude that the interpretation of gravitational-wave observations requires the use of detailed treatment of these interactive binary phases., Comment: 17 pages (13 main text), 5 figures, ApJ, in press

Since 2015 the gravitational-wave observations of LIGO and Virgo have transformed our understanding of compact-object binaries. In the years to come, ground-based gravitational-wave observatories such as LIGO, Virgo, and their successors will increase in sensitivity, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-based LISA will provide gravitational-wave observations of massive black holes binaries. Between the $\sim 10$-$10^3~\mathrm{Hz}$ band of ground-based observatories and the $\sim10^{-4}$-$10^{-1}~\mathrm{Hz}$ band of LISA lies the uncharted decihertz gravitational-wave band. We propose a Decihertz Observatory to study this frequency range, and to complement observations made by other detectors. Decihertz observatories are well suited to observation of intermediate-mass ($\sim10^2$-$10^4 M_\odot$) black holes; they will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers and measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, and they will enable new tests of general relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Here we summarise how a Decihertz Observatory could provide unique insights into how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, improve prospects for both multimessenger astronomy and multiband gravitational-wave astronomy, and enable new probes of gravity, particle physics and cosmology., Comment: 13 pages, 1 figure. Published in Experimental Astronomy. Summarising white paper arXiv:1908.11375

As the number of observed merging binary black holes (BHs) grows, accurate models are required to disentangle multiple formation channels. In models with isolated binaries, important uncertainties remain regarding the stability of mass transfer (MT) and common-envelope (CE) evolution. To study some of these uncertainties, we have computed simulations using MESA of a $30M_\odot$, low metallicity ($Z_\odot/10$) star with a BH companion. We developed a prescription to compute MT rates including possible outflows from outer Lagrangian points, and a method to self-consistently determine the core-envelope boundary in the case of CE evolution. We find that binaries survive a CE only if unstable MT happens after the formation of a deep convective envelope, resulting in a narrow range (0.2 dex) in period for envelope ejection. All cases where interaction is initiated with a radiative envelope have large binding energies ($\sim 10^{50}$ erg), and merge during CE even under the assumption that all the internal and recombination energy of the envelope, as well as the energy from an inspiral, is used for ejection. This is independent of core helium ignition for the donor, a condition under which various rapid-population synthesis calculations assume a successful ejection is possible. Moreover, we find that the critical mass ratio for instability is such that for periods between $\sim 1-1000$ days merging binary BHs can be formed via stable MT. A large fraction of these systems overflow their L$_2$ equipotential, in which case we find stable MT produces merging binary BHs even under extreme assumptions of mass and angular momentum outflows. Our conclusions are limited to the study of one donor star, but suggest that population synthesis calculations overestimate the formation rate of merging binary BHs produced by CE evolution, and that stable MT could dominate the rate from isolated binaries., Comment: 22 pages (including 4 pages of appendices). Abstract abridged for submission to the arXiv. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

We present a new method to extract statistical constraints on the progenitor properties and formation channels of individual gravitational-wave sources. Although many different models have been proposed to explain the binary black holes detected by the LIGO Scientific and Virgo Collaboration (LVC), formation through isolated binary evolution remains the best explored channel. Under the assumption of formation through binary evolution, we use the statistical wrapper dart_board coupled with the rapid binary evolution code COSMIC to model the progenitor of GW150914, the first gravitational-wave signal detected by the LVC. Our Bayesian method combines the likelihood generated from the gravitational-wave signal with a prior describing the population of stellar binaries, and the Universe's star-formation and metallicity evolution. We find that the dominant evolutionary channel for GW150914 did not involve a common-envelope phase, but instead the system most probably (70%-90%) formed through stable mass transfer. This result is robust against variations of various model parameters, and it is reversed only when dynamical instability in binaries becomes more likely when a strict condition favoring common envelopes is adopted. Our analysis additionally provides a quantitative description of the progenitors relevant to each channel., Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in ApJL

The second LIGO-Virgo catalog of gravitational wave transients has more than quadrupled the observational sample of binary black holes. We analyze this catalog using a suite of five state-of-the-art binary black hole population models covering a range of isolated and dynamical formation channels and infer branching fractions between channels as well as constraints on uncertain physical processes that impact the observational properties of mergers. Given our set of formation models, we find significant differences between the branching fractions of the underlying and detectable populations, and that the diversity of detections suggests that multiple formation channels are at play. A mixture of channels is strongly preferred over any single channel dominating the detected population: an individual channel does not contribute to more than $\simeq 70\%$ of the observational sample of binary black holes. We calculate the preference between the natal spin assumptions and common envelope efficiencies in our models, favoring natal spins of isolated black holes of $\lesssim 0.1$, and marginally preferring common envelope efficiencies of $\gtrsim 2.0$ while strongly disfavoring highly inefficient common envelopes. We show that it is essential to consider multiple channels when interpreting gravitational wave catalogs, as inference on branching fractions and physical prescriptions becomes biased when contributing formation scenarios are not considered or incorrect physical prescriptions are assumed. Although our quantitative results can be affected by uncertain assumptions in model predictions, our methodology is capable of including models with updated theoretical considerations and additional formation channels., Comment: 27 pages (14 pages main text + 13 pages appendices/references), 8 figures, 1 table, published in ApJ

We study the population properties of merging binary black holes in the second LIGO--Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog assuming they were all formed dynamically in gravitationally bound clusters. Using a phenomenological population model, we infer the mass and spin distribution of first-generation black holes, while self-consistently accounting for hierarchical mergers. Considering a range of cluster masses, we see compelling evidence for hierarchical mergers in clusters with escape velocities $\gtrsim 100~\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$. For our most probable cluster mass, we find that the catalog contains at least one second-generation merger with $99\%$ credibility. We find that the hierarchical model is preferred over an alternative model with no hierarchical mergers (Bayes factor $\mathcal{B} > 1400$) and that GW190521 is favored to contain two second-generation black holes with odds $\mathcal{O}>700$, and GW190519, GW190602, GW190620, and GW190706 are mixed-generation binaries with $\mathcal{O} > 10$. However, our results depend strongly on the cluster escape velocity, with more modest evidence for hierarchical mergers when the escape velocity is $\lesssim 100~\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$. Assuming that all binary black holes are formed dynamically in globular clusters with escape velocities on the order of tens of $\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$, GW190519 and GW190521 are favored to include a second-generation black hole with odds $\mathcal{O}>1$. In this case, we find that $99\%$ of black holes from the inferred total population have masses that are less than $49\,M_{\odot}$, and that this constraint is robust to our choice of prior on the maximum black hole mass., Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, 1 appendix

We study the impact of mass-transfer physics on the observable properties of binary black hole populations formed through isolated binary evolution. We investigate the impact of mass-accretion efficiency onto compact objects and common-envelope efficiency on the observed distributions of $\chi_{eff}$, $M_{chirp}$ and $q$. We find that low common envelope efficiency translates to tighter orbits post common envelope and therefore more tidally spun up second-born black holes. However, these systems have short merger timescales and are only marginally detectable by current gravitational-waves detectors as they form and merge at high redshifts ($z\sim 2$), outside current detector horizons. Assuming Eddington-limited accretion efficiency and that the first-born black hole is formed with a negligible spin, we find that all non-zero $\chi_{eff}$ systems in the detectable population can come only from the common envelope channel as the stable mass-transfer channel cannot shrink the orbits enough for efficient tidal spin-up to take place. We find the local rate density ($z\simeq 0.01$) for the common envelope channel is in the range $\sim 17-113~Gpc^{-3}yr^{-1}$ considering a range of $\alpha_{CE} \in [0.2,5.0]$ while for the stable mass transfer channel the rate density is $\sim 25~Gpc^{-3}yr^{-1}$. The latter drops by two orders of magnitude if the mass accretion onto the black hole is not Eddington limited because conservative mass transfer does not shrink the orbit as efficiently as non-conservative mass transfer does. Finally, using GWTC-2 events, we constrain the lower bound of branching fraction from other formation channels in the detected population to be $\sim 0.2$. Assuming all remaining events to be formed through either stable mass transfer or common envelope channels, we find moderate to strong evidence in favour of models with inefficient common envelopes., Comment: 26 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in A&A

On August 14, 2019, the LIGO and Virgo detectors observed GW190814, a gravitational-wave signal originating from the merger of a $\simeq 23 M_\odot$ black hole with a $\simeq 2.6 M_\odot$ compact object. GW190814's compact-binary source is atypical both in its highly asymmetric masses and in its lower-mass component lying between the heaviest known neutron star and lightest known black hole in a compact-object binary. If formed through isolated binary evolution, the mass of the secondary is indicative of its mass at birth. We examine the formation of such systems through isolated binary evolution across a suite of assumptions encapsulating many physical uncertainties in massive-star binary evolution. We update how mass loss is implemented for the neutronization process during the collapse of the proto-compact object to eliminate artificial gaps in the mass spectrum at the transition between neutron stars and black holes. We find it challenging for population modeling to match the empirical rate of GW190814-like systems whilst simultaneously being consistent with the rates of other compact binary populations inferred by gravitational-wave observations. Nonetheless, the formation of GW190814-like systems at any measurable rate requires a supernova engine model that acts on longer timescales such that the proto-compact object can undergo substantial accretion immediately prior to explosion, hinting that if GW190814 is the result of massive-star binary evolution, the mass gap between neutron stars and black holes may be narrower or nonexistent., Comment: 19 pages (9 pages main text + 8 pages appendices/references), 6 figures, 1 table, published in ApJL

GW190412 is the first observation of a black hole binary with definitively unequal masses. GW190412's mass asymmetry, along with the measured positive effective inspiral spin, allowed for inference of a component black hole spin: the primary black hole in the system was found to have a dimensionless spin magnitude between 0.17 and 0.59 (90% credible range). We investigate how the choice of priors for the spin magnitudes and tilts of the component black holes affect the robustness of parameter estimates for GW190412, and report Bayes factors across a suite of prior assumptions. Depending on the waveform family used to describe the signal, we find either marginal to moderate (2:1-6:1) or strong ($\gtrsim$ 20:1) support for the primary black hole being spinning compared to cases where only the secondary is allowed to have spin. We show how these choices influence parameter estimates, and find the asymmetric masses and positive effective inspiral spin of GW190412 to be qualitatively, but not quantitatively, robust to prior assumptions. Our results highlight the importance of both considering astrophysically motivated or population-based priors in interpreting observations and considering their relative support from the data., Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, 1 table, published in ApJL

In dense stellar environments, the merger products of binary black hole mergers may undergo additional mergers. These hierarchical mergers are predicted to have higher masses than the first generation of black holes made from stars. The components of hierarchical mergers are expected to have significant characteristic spins $\chi\sim 0.7$. However, since the population properties of first-generation black holes are uncertain, it is difficult to know if any given merger is first-generation or hierarchical. We use observations of gravitational waves to reconstruct the binary black hole mass and spin spectrum of a population containing hierarchical merger events. We employ a phenomenological model that captures the properties of merging binary black holes from simulations of dense stellar environments. Inspired by recent work on the isolated formation of low-spin black holes, we include a zero-spin subpopulation. We analyze binary black holes from LIGO and Virgo's first two observing runs, and find that this catalog is consistent with having no hierarchical mergers. We find that the most massive system in this catalog, GW170729, is mostly likely a first-generation merger, having a $4\%$ probability of being a hierarchical merger assuming a $5 \times 10^5 M_{\odot}$ globular cluster mass. Using our model, we find that $99\%$ of first-generation black holes in coalescing binaries have masses below 44 $M_{\odot}$, and the fraction of binaries with near-zero spin is $0.051^{+0.156}_{-0.048}$ ($90\%$ credible interval). Upcoming observations will determine if hierarchical mergers are a common source of gravitational waves., Comment: Appendix B added to include GW190412 in the analysis; 21 pages, 15 figures, 2 appendices

Although gravitational waves only interact weakly with matter, their propagation is affected by a gravitational potential. If a gravitational wave source is eclipsed by a star, measuring these perturbations provides a way to directly measure the distribution of mass throughout the stellar interior. We compute the expected Shapiro time delay, amplification and deflection during an eclipse, and show how this can be used to infer the mass distribution of the eclipsing body. We identify continuous gravitational waves from neutron stars as the best candidates to detect this effect. When the Sun eclipses a far-away source, depending on the depth of the eclipse the time-delay can change by up to $\sim 0.034$ ms, the gravitational-wave strain amplitude can increase by $\sim 4$%, and the apparent position of the source in the sky can vary by $4''$. Accreting neutron stars with Roche-lobe filling companion stars have a high probability of exhibiting eclipses, producing similar time delays but undetectable changes in amplitude and sky location. Even for the most rapidly rotating neutron stars, this time delay only corresponds to a few percent of the phase of the gravitational wave, making it an extremely challenging measurement. However, if sources of continuous gravitational waves exist just below the limit of detection of current observatories, next-generation instruments will be able to observe them with enough precision to measure the signal of an eclipsing star. Detecting this effect would provide a new direct probe to the interior of stars, complementing asteroseismology and the detection of solar neutrinos., Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review D

We present a detailed analysis of two well-localized, highly offset short gamma-ray bursts---GRB~070809 and GRB~090515---investigating the kinematic evolution of their progenitors from compact object formation until merger. Calibrating to observations of their most probable host galaxies, we construct semi-analytic galactic models that account for star formation history and galaxy growth over time. We pair detailed kinematic evolution with compact binary population modeling to infer viable post-supernova velocities and inspiral times. By populating binary tracers according to the star formation history of the host and kinematically evolving their post-supernova trajectories through the time-dependent galactic potential, we find that systems matching the observed offsets of the bursts require post-supernova systemic velocities of hundreds of kilometers per second. Marginalizing over uncertainties in the stellar mass--halo mass relation, we find that the second-born neutron star in the GRB~070809 and GRB~090515 progenitor systems received a natal kick of $\gtrsim 200~\mathrm{km\,s}^{-1}$ at the 78\% and 91\% credible levels, respectively. Applying our analysis to the full catalog of localized short gamma-ray bursts will provide unique constraints on their progenitors and help unravel the selection effects inherent to observing transients that are highly offset with respect to their hosts., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, 1 table. ApJ, in press

GW170817 began gravitational-wave multimessenger astronomy. However, GW170817 will not be representative of detections in the coming years -- typical gravitational-wave sources will be closer the detection horizon, have larger localization regions, and (when present) will have correspondingly weaker electromagnetic emission. In its design state, the gravitational-wave detector network in the mid-2020s will consist of up to five similar-sensitivity second-generation interferometers. The instantaneous sky-coverage by the full network is nearly isotropic, in contrast to the configuration during the first \change{three} observing runs. Along with the coverage of the sky, there are also commensurate increases in the average horizon for a given binary mass. We present a realistic set of localizations for binary neutron stars and neutron star--black hole binaries, incorporating intra-network duty cycles and selection effects on the astrophysical distributions. Based on the assumption of an $80\%$ duty cycle, and that two instruments observe a signal above the detection threshold, we anticipate a median of $28$ sq.\ deg.\ for binary neutron stars, and $50$--$120$ sq.\ deg.\ for neutron star--black hole (depending on the population assumed). These distributions have a wide spread, and the best localizations, even for networks with fewer instruments, will have localizations of $1$--$10$ sq.\ deg.\ range. The full five instrument network reduces localization regions to a few tens of degrees at worst., Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables, accepted in ApJ

The gravitational-wave astronomical revolution began in 2015 with LIGO's observation of the coalescence of two stellar-mass black holes. Over the coming decades, ground-based detectors like LIGO will extend their reach, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-based LISA will enable gravitational-wave observations of the massive black holes in galactic centres. Between LISA and ground-based observatories lies the unexplored decihertz gravitational-wave frequency band. Here, we propose a Decihertz Observatory to cover this band, and complement observations made by other gravitational-wave observatories. The decihertz band is uniquely suited to observation of intermediate-mass ($\sim 10^2$-$10^4 M_\odot$) black holes, which may form the missing link between stellar-mass and massive black holes, offering a unique opportunity to measure their properties. Decihertz observations will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge and are observed by ground-based detectors, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers, and enabling measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, providing revealing insights into their formation. Observing decihertz gravitational-waves also opens the possibility of testing fundamental physics in a new laboratory, permitting unique tests of general relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Overall, a Decihertz Observatory will answer key questions about how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, open new avenues for multimessenger astronomy, and advance our understanding of gravitation, particle physics and cosmology., Comment: 52 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables. Submitted to Classical & Quantum Gravity. Based upon a white paper for ESA's Voyage 2050 on behalf of the LISA Consortium 2050 Task Force

Star-to-star dispersion of r-process elements has been observed in a significant number of old, metal-poor globular clusters. We investigate early-time neutron-star mergers as the mechanism for this enrichment. Through both numerical modeling and analytical arguments, we show that neutron-star mergers cannot be induced through dynamical interactions early in the history of the cluster, even when the most liberal assumptions about neutron-star segregation are assumed. Therefore, if neutron-star mergers are the primary mechanism for r-process dispersion in globular clusters, they likely result from the evolution of isolated, primordial binaries in the clusters. Through population modeling, we find that moderate fractions of GCs with enrichment are only possible when a significant number of double neutron-star progenitors proceed through Case BB mass transfer --- under various assumptions for the initial properties of globular clusters, a neutron-star merger with the potential for enrichment will occur in ~15-60% (~30-90%) of globular clusters if this mass transfer proceeds stably (unstably). The strong anti-correlation between the pre-supernova orbital separation and post-supernova systemic velocity due to mass loss in the supernova leads to efficient ejection of most enrichment candidates from their host clusters. Thus, most enrichment events occur shortly after the double neutron stars are born. This requires star-forming gas that can absorb the r-process ejecta to be present in the globular cluster 30-50 Myr after the initial burst of star formation. If scenarios for redistributing gas in globular clusters cannot act on these timescales, the number of neutron-star merger enrichment candidates drops severely, and it is likely that another mechanism, such as r-process enrichment from collapsars, is at play., Comment: Published in ApJ. 22 pages, 7 figures, 1 table

Accurate tracking in urban environments necessitates target birth, survival, and detection models that quantify the impact of terrain and building geometry on the sequential estimation procedure. Current efforts assume that target trajectories are limited to fixed paths, such as road networks. In these settings a single airborne platform with a downward-facing camera is capable of fully observing a target, outside of a few obstructed regions that can be determined a priori (e.g. tunnels). However, many practical target types are not necessarily restricted to road networks and thus require knowledge of azimuthal shadowed regions to the sensor. In this paper, we propose the integration of geospatial data for an urban environment into a particle filter realization of a random finite set target tracking algorithm. Specifically, we use 3D building polygons to compute the azimuthal shadowed regions with respect to deployed sensor location. The particle filter predict and update steps are modified such that (1) target births are assumed to occur in line-of-sight (LOS) regions, (2) targets do not move into obstructions, (3) true target detections only occur in LOS regions. The localization error performance improvement for a single target Bernoulli filter under these modifications is presented using freely available building vector data of New York City., Comment: 22nd International Conference on Information Fusion, Poster presentation

Passive multi-target tracking applications require the integration of multiple spatially distributed sensor measurements to distinguish true tracks from ghost tracks. A popular multi-target tracking approach for these applications is the particle filter implementation of Mahler's probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter, which jointly updates the union of all target state space estimates without requiring computationally complex measurement-to-track data association. Although this technique is attractive for implementation in computationally limited platforms, the performance benefits can be significantly overshadowed by inefficient sampling of the target birth particles over the region of interest. We propose a multi-sensor extension of the adaptive birth intensity PHD filter described in (Ristic, 2012) to achieve efficient birth particle sampling driven by online sensor measurements from multiple sensors. The proposed approach is demonstrated using distributed time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA) and frequency-difference-of-arrival (FDOA) measurements, in which we describe exact techniques for sampling from the target state space conditioned on the observations. Numerical results are presented that demonstrate the increased particle density efficiency of the proposed approach over a uniform birth particle sampler., Comment: 21st International Conference on Information Fusion

Next-generation observations will revolutionize our understanding of binary black holes and will detect new sources, such as intermediate-mass black holes. Primary science goals include: Discover binary black holes throughout the observable Universe; Reveal the fundamental properties of black holes; Uncover the seeds of supermassive black holes., Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, White Paper Submitted to Astro2020 (2020 Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey) by GWIC 3G Science Case Team (GWIC: Gravitational Wave International Committee)