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Stated preference scenarios often provide information on intermediate biophysical processes but omit information on the resulting final services that provide utility. This may cause respondents to speculate about the effects of intermediate outcomes on their welfare, leading to biased welfare estimates. This work clarifies distinctions between intermediate and final ecosystem services within stated preference valuation and develops a structural model by which to infer respondents’ speculations when a final ecosystem service is omitted. The model also derives implications for welfare estimates. Methods and results are illustrated using an application of choice experiments to fish restoration in Rhode Island’s Pawtuxet watershed.

Stated preference analyses commonly impose strong and unrealistic assumptions in response to spatial welfare heterogeneity. These include spatial homogeneity or continuous distance decay. Despite their ubiquity in the valuation literature, global assumptions such as these have been increasingly abandoned by non-economics disciplines in favor of approaches that allow for spatial patchiness. This paper develops parallel methods to evaluate local patchiness and hot spots in stated preference welfare estimates, characterizing relevant patterns overlooked by traditional approaches. The analysis draws from a choice experiment addressing river restoration. Results demonstrate shortcomings in standard treatments of spatial heterogeneity and insights available through alternative methods.

The European green crab, Carcinus maenas, is one of the most widely distributed invasive species in coastal systems. This species has become established on five continents and has produced significant negative ecological and economic impacts in many areas. On the Atlantic coast of North America, green crabs have been established for at least 180 years. On the Pacific coast, green crabs became established in San Francisco Bay in the late 1980s and expanded their range rapidly during the 1990s. In response to the spread and impacts of green crabs in the U.S., Carcinus maenas was listed as an aquatic nuisance species by the federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force (ANSTF). To date, there have been no formal review of the ecological impacts of green crabs and no formal attempts to quantify and understand their potential economic impacts. This paper presents a predictive framework for understanding the magnitude and extent of green crab impacts on the East and West Coasts of the U.S. The framework consists of several linked models. The ecological sub-models incorporate green crab dispersal and relationship between green crab abundance and the dynamics of prey populations. The economic analysis focuses on the green crab impacts on commercial shellfisheries and estuarine restoration efforts. The documented historical and present impacts of green crabs on the shellfishery include soft-shell clams, blue mussels, scallops, hard shell clam, and manila clams. The preliminary results of this analysis show that damages to commercial shellfishery from Green Crab predation are on average $22.6 million per year on the East Coast of the United States. Although the current damages on the West Coast are negligible, the potential future damages are likely to increase to $0.84 million per year, if Green Crab invades Puget Sound (WA) and Alaska.

The present study focuses on a state-wide case study to evaluate recreational benefits from forthcoming effluent limitation guidelines for the Metal Products and Machinery Industry. The study combines water quality modeling and a random utility model to assess how changes in water quality from the regulation will affect consumer valuation of water resources. Based on preliminary results, the MP&M regulation has the potential to generate substantial recreational benefits in Ohio.