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With the growth of cars and car-sharing applications, commuters in many cities, particularly developing countries, are shifting away from public transport. These shifts have affected two key stakeholders: transit operators and first- and last-mile (FLM) services. Although most cities continue to invest heavily in bus and metro projects to make public transit attractive, ridership in these systems has often failed to reach targeted levels. FLM service providers also experience lower demand and revenues in the wake of shifts to other means of transport. Effective FLM options are required to prevent this phenomenon and make public transport attractive for commuters. One possible solution is to forge partnerships between public transport and FLM providers that offer competitive joint mobility options. Such solutions require prudent allocation of supply and optimised strategies for FLM operations and ride-sharing. To this end, we build an agent- and event-based simulation model which captures interactions between passengers and FLM services using statecharts, vehicle routing models, and other trip matching rules. An optimisation model for allocating FLM vehicles at different transit stations is proposed to reduce unserved requests. Using real-world metro transit demand data from Bengaluru, India, the effectiveness of our approach in improving FLM connectivity and quantifying the benefits of sharing trips is demonstrated.

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiment is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data such as large time series due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the non-identifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges we propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long-short term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the 'learning with noise' idea we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with WRF-hydro model we show that our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.