1. Vulnerable road user injury trends following the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto, Canada: An interrupted time series analysis.
- Author
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Batomen, Brice, Macpherson, Alison, Lewis, Jeremy, Howard, Andrew, Ruth Saunders, Natasha, Richmond, Sarah, Anne Harris, M., Saskin, Refik, Zagorski, Brandon, Macarthur, Colin, Fuselli, Pamela, and Rothman, Linda
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ROAD users , *TIME series analysis , *CYCLING accidents , *PEDESTRIAN accidents , *COVID-19 pandemic , *EMERGENCY room visits , *CYCLING , *TREND analysis - Abstract
• What is already known on this topic: During the early pandemic phase, some cities experienced a drop in nonfatal road traffic collisions but a surge in fatalities, potentially linked to increased speeding in lighter traffic with reduced law enforcement. • What this study adds : Over an extended period beyond the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the findings show a decrease in pedestrian injuries since April 2020, and an increase in non-MVC bicyclist injuries leading to more ED visits and hospitalizations. • How this study might affect research, practice or policy : Non-MVC bicyclist injuries increased, raising important questions for further investigation. Background : The COVID-19 pandemic altered traffic patterns worldwide, potentially impacting pedestrian and bicyclists safety in urban areas. In Toronto, Canada, work from home policies, bicycle network expansion, and quiet streets were implemented to support walking and cycling. We examined pedestrian and bicyclist injury trends from 2012 to 2022, utilizing police-reported killed or severely injured (KSI), emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalization data. Methods: We used an interrupted time series design, with injury counts aggregated quarterly. We fit a negative binomial regression using a Bayesian modeling approach to data prior to the pandemic that included a secular time trend, quarterly seasonal indicator variables, and autoregressive terms. The differences between observed and expected injury counts based on pre-pandemic trends with 95% credible intervals (CIs) were computed. Results: There were 38% fewer pedestrian KSI (95%CI: 19%, 52%), 35% fewer ED visits (95%CI: 28%, 42%), and 19% fewer hospitalizations (95%CI: 2%, 32%) since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. A reduction of 35% (95%CI: 7%, 54%) in KSI bicyclist injuries was observed, but However, ED visits and hospitalizations from bicycle-motor vehicle collisions were compatible with pre-pandemic trends. In contrast, for bicycle injuries not involving motor vehicles, large increases were observed for both ED visits, 73% (95% CI: 49%, 103%) and for hospitalization 108% (95% CI: 38%, 208%). Conclusion: New road safety interventions during the pandemic may have improved road safety for vulnerable road users with respect to collisions with motor vehicles; however, further investigation into the risk factors for bicycle injuries not involving motor vehicles is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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