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The European Commission’s Science and Knowledge Service, the Joint Research Centre (JRC), decided to try working hand-in-hand with leading European science centres and museums. Behind this decision was the idea that the JRC could better support EU Institutions in engaging with the European public. The fact that European Union policies are firmly based on scientific evidence is a strong message which the JRC is uniquely able to illustrate. Such a collaboration would not only provide a platform to explain the benefits of EU policies to our daily lives but also provide an opportunity for European citizens to engage by taking a more active part in the EU policy making process for the future. A PILOT PROGRAMME To test the idea, the JRC launched an experimental programme to work with science museums: a perfect partner for three compelling reasons. Firstly, they attract a large and growing number of visitors. Leading science museums in Europe have typically 500 000 visitors per year. Furthermore, they are based in large European cities and attract local visitors as well as tourists from across Europe and beyond. The second reason for working with museums is that they have mastered the art of how to communicate key elements of sophisticated arguments across to the public and making complex topics of public interest readily accessible. That is a high-value added skill and a crucial part of the valorisation of public-funded research, never to be underestimated. Finally museums are, at present, undergoing something of a renaissance. Museums today are vibrant environments offering new techniques and technologies to both inform and entertain, and attract visitors of all demographics., JRC.H.2-Knowledge Management Methodologies, Communities and Dissemination

The International Migration Drivers report quantifies the relative weight of the drivers of migration at international level in a comprehensive way by income levels of countries of origin. Different channels of migration (voluntary migration flows between 1980 and 2017, asylum seekers, residence permits) are analysed separately. The drivers consider both structural characteristics of countries and individual characteristics of persons planning and preparing to migrate. The study of the drivers of past migrations is used to formulate better informed migration scenarios for the future with a medium to long term perspective. In addition, findings of the report are key to understanding the root causes of migration addressed by the European Agenda on Migration and the upcoming Global Compact for Migration., JRC.E.6-Demography, Migration and Governance

In this report we propose a classification of river basin districts (RBDs) in terms of the consistency between reported significant pressures and pressures expected to be relevant in each RBD on the basis of pan-European indicators. We discuss the results and limitations of the classification obtained at European scale, and we suggest a perspective for its use for improving Water Framework Directive (WFD) implementation and the subsequent in-depth analysis of programmes of measures (PoMs) and their effectiveness. Overall, the analysis highlights that some river basin districts report pressures in a way that is in line with expectations from European indicators, while some others report either higher or lower pressure intensity than expected. Reasons for these discrepancies may include lack of relevant local information in the assessment of European indicators, and under/overestimation of pressures by the RBD authorities or reporting member states. The analysis presented here is based on data aggregated at RBD level, as allowed by the available information, and should be regarded mainly as a proof of concept. In the future, the same analysis should be updated with reference to individual water bodies, and taking into consideration the updates of river basin management plans and PoMs under development at the time of writing this report., JRC.H.1-Water Resources

Action 5 of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 calls Member States to map and assess the state of ecosystems and their services in their national territory with the assistance of the European Commission. The objective of this discussion paper is to support the development of a coherent analytical framework to be applied by the EU and its Member States in order to ensure consistent approaches are used. In line with the Millennium Ecosystem assessment, the objective of the EU assessment is to provide a critical evaluation of the best available information for guiding decisions on complex public issues. It is therefore framed by a broad set of key policy questions. It is structured around a conceptual framework that links human societies and their well-being with the environment. More specifically, the paper proposes a typology of ecosystems to be assessed and mapped and the use of the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) developed for environmental accounting purposes., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

A modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. Simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. The study shows that technically this modelling software environment can deliver optimum scenario combinations of packages of measures that improve various water quantity and water quality indicators, but that additional work is needed before final conclusions can be made using the tool. Further work is necessary, especially in the economic loss estimations, the water prices and price-elasticity, as well as the implementation and maintenance costs of individual scenarios., JRC.H.1-Water Resources

Mainstreaming ecosystem services in EU decision making processes requires a solid conceptual and methodological framework for mapping and assessing ecosystem services that serve the multiple objectives addressed by policies. The PRESS-2 study (PEER Research on Ecosystem Service – Phase 2) provides such an analytical framework which enables the operationalization of the present scientific knowledge base of environmental data and models for application by the EU and Member States for mapping and assessment of ecosystem services. This study was structured along three strands of work: policy and scenario analysis, mapping and valuation. Linking the maps of ecosystem service supply to monetary valuation allowed an analysis of the expected impact of policy measures on benefits derived from ecosystem services.The recreation case, which Marianne participated in, presents evidence that millions of people visited forests several times per year and they expressed their willingness to pay to continue doing so. The visitor statistics that were used in this study confirmed the usefulness of the ROS approach (Recreation Opportunity Spectrum) to identify areas in terms of their accessibility and potential to provide recreation services. In addition, PRESS-2 presents a spatial analysis of city population density and green urban areas.

MAPPE-Global modeling tool belongs to the group of the global box models for environmental fate and transport of POPs. The estimated error level of MAPPE-Global is about a factor of two, which suggests that the model could be considered as a tool for a screening or initial evaluation of chemical risk for POPs at global scale. The verified MAPPE-Global is applied in practical assessments of chemical loads to the European regional seas. The PCBs case study relates to a sum of 22 congeners and considers two emission scenarios: first - the current status relative to the 2010 year; second – a future projection corresponding to the 2020 year. The total amount of 22PCBs released to air equals to 101.03 t for year 2010 and to 50.2 t for year 2020, respectively. The Baseline scenario for Lindane assumes, for the reference year 2005, 86.6 t atmospheric emissions only from European sources and omits the impact of the long range atmospheric transport. The second scenario for Lindane aims to targeting the situation in the year 2020. This scenario (denoted as LRT) suggests no emissions to atmosphere from any European origin due to the banning of this substance but admits that Europe is affected by an unavoidable „import” of 5.4 t Lindane through trans-continental air transport. According to the MAPPE-Global model, the extended European area is exporting to the marine water 3.7 t of 22PCBs in 2010 and 1.9 t in 2020, respectively. In both scenarios, the most affected seas are the Mediterranean Sea (ca.35% from the total) followed by Northern (ca. 21.5%) and Black sea (ca. 19%). It was estimated that the European seas receive by atmospheric deposition about 7.9 t of 22PCBs in 2010 and ca. 4t in 2020. This is two times more when comparing to the entire riverine discharge of 22PCBs for these years. MAPPE-Global forecasts 10.1 t riverine sea load of Lindane under the Baseline scenario and 0.26t in the case of LRT meaning 97% reduction compared to the baseline option. The highest discharges are observed for Atlantic Ocean – in Baseline scenario 2.2t (21.8% from the total) and for LRT 0.06t (23%); and Mediterranean Sea - Baseline 3.5t (34.7%) and LRT 0.04t (15.4%). For the gamma-HCH, likewise for the PCBs, it is found that the atmospheric deposition over the European seas dominate the river input to the coastal zone. Under the Baseline scenario, the total air deposition (50.2t/y) is about 5 times higher than the riverine component of the sea load. Potentially the outcome of MAPPE-Global model could serve in the assessments of different policy options related to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) or Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) as well as to support the implementation of the European sea conventions as HELCOM (Baltic Sea), OSPAR (North-East Atlantic), MEDPOL (Mediterranean Sea) and BSC (Black Sea)., JRC.H.1-Water Resources

A spatially explicit statistical approach (GREEN model) applied to continental Europe on a sub-catchment basis, is used to link input from anthropogenic activities and nutrient loads into European Seas (namely nitrogen and phosphorous). Effectiveness of environmental legislation is assessed at the horizon 2020, emphasizing the regional differences between European countries as well as the respective contribution of anthropogenic changes and hydrological fluctuation in nutrient exports. The set of scenarios analyzed includes a business as usual situation, a full implementation of on going policy options, a change in European diet based on a strong reduction of meat intake, and optimized management of agricultural practices. All prospective analyses are implemented for EU-27 and are discussed in terms of capacities to mitigate land based emissions of nutrient, and also according to their impacts on the loads of nutrient exported to European coastal areas., JRC.H.1-Water Resources

In order to support the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, DG Environment and the Joint Research Centre joined to carry out a study on the expected cumulative impact of existing EU environmental legislation on the quality of the marine environment, with specific reference to the case of aquatic discharges to the European seas. The report describes a few scenario analyses affecting emissions to the European regional seas up to 2020 for Lindane, Trifluralin and Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) taken as pilot substances. The scenarios developed are agreed with stakeholders at DG ENV following some preparatory meetings. The scenarios do not intend be exhaustive, but examples of what can be further achieved making use of the modelling and database development made in the different phases of the project. For Lindane, the model estimated European sea load of 745 tons per 1995, based on the official emission data provided by EMEP, appears to be reduced by 98.3% in 2005, ten years after the start of the EU regulations for γ-HCH. Besides, under the BAU scenario, a Lindane sea load of ca.12.5 tons per year should be expected. The trend and ban scenarios support, respectively, a reduction of the load to the European seas in 2020 by 74% and 95% when compared to the BAU estimate. Aimed at Trifluralin, according to the BAU scenario, an annual load of ca.61.7 tones is estimated in 2020. However, this is an overestimation, because the aggregated emission data of EUROSTAT for the agriculture use of the entire group of dinitroaniline herbicides in for EU25 have been considered as model input data. The complete ban scenario forecasts ca. 0.07 t/y and in practice eliminates the concern about loads of Trifluralin to European seas to a negligible level in a time-frame of one year due to degradation in soil. Considering PFOS under BAU scenario conditions the total sea load from all European contries is estimated to be 5.8 tons per year. The model forecasts approximately a half of this amount when a 50% reduction of emissions takes place., JRC.H.1-Water Resources