1. Age-period-cohort analysis of gallbladder and biliary diseases epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2021 and forecasts for 2035: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021.
- Author
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He M, Gu R, Huang X, Zhao A, Liu F, and Zheng Y
- Subjects
- Humans, Male, Female, Aged, Middle Aged, Incidence, Adult, Cohort Studies, Aged, 80 and over, Disability-Adjusted Life Years trends, Young Adult, Global Health statistics & numerical data, Adolescent, Age Distribution, Age Factors, Mortality trends, Global Burden of Disease trends, Gallbladder Diseases epidemiology, Biliary Tract Diseases epidemiology, Biliary Tract Diseases mortality, Forecasting
- Abstract
Background: Gallbladder and biliary diseases (GABD) represent prevalent disorders of the digestive system., Methods: Data on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was utilized to quantify temporal trends in GABD. Age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to determine the effects attributable to age, period, and birth cohort. Additionally, we projected global trends to 2035., Results: Globally, GABD incident cases, mortality cases, and DALYs increased by 60.11%, 71.71%, and 56.90%, respectively. However, all corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) demonstrated overall downward trends with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of -0.32 (-0.38 to -0.26), -0.95 (-1.08 to -0.83), and - 0.69 (-0.74 to -0.65), respectively. The number of incident cases was higher in females than in males across all age groups. The age effect indicated that older individuals had higher age-specific incidence and death rates. Both period and cohort effects showed declining risk across incidence and mortality. The ASIR and ASMR of GABD are projected to continue decreasing over the next 15 years., Conclusion: GABD continue to pose a significant global public health challenge, particularly affecting women and the elderly population. Consequently, the implementation of effective interventions to mitigate the GABD burden is of paramount importance., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: The use of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease database in this study was in compliance with the ethical standards of the database’s governing body. As this study involved analysis of publicly available, de-identified data, no additional ethical approval was required. Consent for publication: This study utilized data from publicly available databases, which do not contain identifiable personal information. Therefore, consent for publication is not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2025. The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2025
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