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Objective: To examine associations between objective signs of progression (triggers) and transition from active surveillance (AS) to radical treatment for prostate cancer (PC). Patients and methods: This case-control study included men with low- or favourable intermediate-risk PC in the region of Halland, with data from The National Prostate Cancer Register (NPCR), Sweden, start-ing AS between 2008 and 2020. Cases were men who transitioned to radical treatment. For each case, 10 controls who remained in AS were selected without further matching. Triggers for transition to treatment were histopathological progression, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) progression and increases in pros-tate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. We compared the probabilities for triggers between cases and controls, in 2008–2014 and 2015–2020, using logistic regression. Results: Amongst 846 men, we identified 98 cases in 2008–2014 and 172 cases in 2015–2020. Histopathological progression was associated with transition, most strongly in the later period (2008–2014: odds ratios [OR] 6.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.69–12.80; and 2015–2020: OR 75.29, 95% CI 39.60–143.17). MRI progression was associated with transition in 2015–2020 (OR 6.38, 95% CI 2.70–15.06), whereas an increase in PSA was weakly associated with transition in the early period. The absence of trig-gers was associated with no transition (2008–2014: OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.15–0.40, and 2015–2020: OR 0.09, 95% CI 0.06–0.14). The probability of no trigger was 27% in cases 2015–2020. Conclusion: The increase in association between histopathological trigger and transition to treatment indicates increased quality of AS. Still, amongst men treated from 2015 to 2020, 27% transitioned without any trigger.

Introduction: We aimed to compare short term outcomes after robot assisted radical cystectomy (RARC) and open radical cystectomy (ORC) for urinary bladder cancer in a large population. Materials and methods: We included all patients without distant metastases who underwent either RARC or ORC with ileal conduit between 2011 and 2019 registered in the Bladder cancer data Base Sweden (BladderBaSe) 2.0. Primary outcome was unplanned readmissions within 90 days, and secondary out-comes within 90 days of surgery were reoperations, Clavien 3-5 complications, total days alive and out of hospital, and mortality. The analysis was carried out using multivariate regression models. Results: Out of 2905 patients, 832 were operated with RARC and 2073 with ORC. Robotic procedures were to a larger extent performed during later years, at high volume centers (47% vs 17%), more often for organ-confined disease (82% vs. 72%) and more frequently in patients with high socioeconomic status (26% vs. 21%). Patients operated with RARC were more commonly readmitted (29% vs. 25%). In multi -variable analysis RARC was associated with decreased risk of Clavien 3-5 complications (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.47-0.72), reoperations (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.39-0.71) and had more days alive and out of hospital (mean difference 3.7 days, 95% CI 2.4-5.0). Conclusion: This study illustrates the "real-world" effects of a gradual and nation-wide introduction of RARC. Patients operated with RARC had fewer major complications and reoperations but were more frequently readmitted compared to ORC. The observed differences were largely due to more wound related complications among patients treated with ORC.

Background: Regional differences in active surveillance (AS) uptake for prostate cancer (PC) illustrate an inequality in treatment strategies. Objective: To examine the association between regional differences in AS uptake and transition to radical treatment, start of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), watchful waiting, or death. Design, setting, and participants: A Swedish population-based cohort study was con-ducted including men in the National Prostate Cancer Register in Sweden with low -risk or favorable intermediate-risk PC, starting AS from January 1, 2007 and continuing till December 31, 2019. Intervention: Regional tradition of low, intermediate, or high proportions of immediate radical treatment. Outcomes measurements and statistical analysis:Probabilities of transition from AS to radical treatment, start of ADT, watchful waiting, or death from other causes were assessed. Results and limitations: We included 13 679 men. The median age was 66 yr, median PSA 5.1 ng/ml, and median follow-up 5.7 yr. Men from regions with a high AS uptake had a lower probability of transition to radical treatment (36%) than men from regions with a low AS uptake (40%; absolute difference 4.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-7.2), but not a higher probability of AS failure defined as the start of ADT (absolute difference 0.4%; 95% CI -0.7 to 1.4). There were no statistically significant differences in the probability of transition to watchful waiting or death from other causes. Limitations include uncertainty in the estimation of remaining lifetime and transition to watchful waiting. Conclusions:A regional tradition of a high AS uptake is associated with a lower probability of transition to radical treatment, but not with AS failure. A low AS uptake suggests overtreatment.

Objectives: To predict castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and prostate cancer (Pca) death by use of clinical variables at Pca diagnosis and PSA levels after start of gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists (GnRH) in men with non-metastatic castration sensitive prostate cancer (nmCSPC). Materials and Methods: PSA values for 1603 men with nmCSPC in the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden who received GnRH as primary treatment were retrieved from Uppsala-Örebro PSA Cohort and Stockholm PSA and Biopsy Register. All men had measured PSA before (pre-GnRH PSA) and 3–6 months after (post-GnRH PSA) date of start of GnRH. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox models were used to predict CRPC by PSA levels. PSA levels and ISUP grade were used to construct a risk score to stratify men by tertiles according to risk of CRPC and Pca death. Results: 788 (49%) men reached CRPC and 456 (28%) died of Pca during follow-up. Post-GnRH PSA predicted CRPC regardless of pre-GnRH PSA. CRPC risk increased with higher post-GnRH PSA, HR 4.7 (95% CI: 3.4–6.7) for PSA > 16 ng/mL vs 0–0.25 ng/mL and with ISUP grade, HR 3.7 (95%: 2.5–5.4) for ISUP 5 vs ISUP 1. Risk of Pca death in men above top vs bellow bottom tertile of post-GnRH PSA and ISUP grade was HR 4.1 (95% CI: 3.0–5.5). Conclusion: A risk score based on post-GnRH PSA and ISUP grade could be used for early identification of a target group for future clinical trials on additional therapy to GnRH.

IMPORTANCE: The long-term outcomes among men with prostate cancer (PC) whose disease is managed with active surveillance (AS) remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To develop a simulation model with a 30-year follow-up for men with PC managed with AS. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study, a state transition model was created using data from Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) on 23 655 men diagnosed with PC and managed with deferred treatment to estimate treatment trajectories. A simulation was performed with 100 000 men in each combination of age at diagnosis, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and PC risk with a follow-up of 30 years. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Death from PC and death from other causes were estimated, and the proportion of time without active PC treatment was assessed until date of death or age 85 years. RESULTS: This study included 23 655 men from PCBaSe with a median age at diagnosis of 69 years (IQR, 64-74 years). Of these, 16 177 men underwent active surveillance for PC and 7478 underwent watchful waiting. The proportion of men who were diagnosed at age 55 years and died of PC before age 85 years was 9% for very low-risk PC, 13% for low-risk PC, and 15% for intermediate-risk PC. Among men with a Charlson Comorbidity Index of O who were diagnosed at age 70 years, the corresponding percentages were 3%, 6%, and 7%, respectively. The mean proportion of remaining life-years without active PC treatment for men diagnosed at age 55 years was 12 of 25 years (48%) for very low-risk PC, 9 of 25 years (36%) for low-risk PC, and 7 of 25 (29%) for intermediate-risk PC. For men aged 70 years, the corresponding numbers were 10 of 13 years (77%), 9 of 13 years (66%), and 8 of 13 years (60%), respectively. Men with intermediate-risk PC who were younger than 60 years at diagnosis had a high risk of PC death (12%-15%) and fewer remaining life-years without active PC treatment (29%-33%). In contrast, men with low-risk PC who were older than 65 years at di

Background: Little is known about disease trajectories for men with castration -resistant prostate cancer (CRPC).Objective: To create a state transition model that estimates time spent in the CRPC state and its outcomes.Design, setting, and participants: The model was generated using population -based prostate-specific antigen data from 40% of the Swedish male population, which were linked to nationwide population-based databases. We compared the observed and predicted cumulative incidence of transitions to and from the CRPC state.Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: We measured time spent in the CRPC state and the proportion of men who died of prostate cancer during follow-up by CRPC risk category.Results and limitations: Time spent in the CRPC state varied from 1.1 yr for the highest risk category to 3.9 yr for the lowest risk category. The proportion of men who died from prostate cancer within 10 yr ranged from 93% for the highest risk category to 54% for the lowest. There was good agreement between the model estimates and observed data.Conclusions: There is large variation in the time spent in the CRPC state, varying from 1 yr to 4 yr according to risk category.Patient summary: It is possible to accurately estimate the disease trajectory and duration for men with castration-resistant prostate cancer.(c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association of Urology. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Background: Attempts to reduce prostate cancer (PC) mortality require an understanding of temporal changes in the characteristics of men with lethal PC. Objective: To describe the diagnostic characteristics of and time trends for a nationwide population-based cohort of Swedish men who died from PC between 1992 and 2016. Design, setting, participants: Men with PC as the underlying cause of death from 1992 to 2016 according to the Swedish Cause of Death Register were included in the study. Characteristics at diagnosis were collected via links to other nationwide registries using personal identity numbers. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis:Data on disease duration, age at death, and risk category were analyzed. Missing data for risk categories for men with an early date of PC diagnosis were imputed according to the method of chained equations. Results and limitations: Between 1992 and 2016, age-standardized PC mortality decreased by 25%. Median PC disease duration increased from 3.3 yr (interquartile range [IQR] 1.6–6.3) to 5.9 yr (IQR 2.5–10.3) and the median age at death from PC increased from 78.9 yr (IQR 73.3–84.2) to 82.2 yr (IQR 75.2–87.5). The proportion of men with localized disease at diagnosis who died from PC increased from 34% to 48%, while the rate of distant metastases at diagnosis decreased from 56% to 42%. The rate of distant metastases at diagnosis was highest among the youngest men. Treatment trajectories could not be described owing to the large proportion of missing data before the start of registration in the National Prostate Cancer Registry. Conclusion: Age-standardized PC mortality has decreased substantially since 1992. However, there is still a high proportion of men who die from PC who had localized disease at diagnosis, which indicates that more attention is needed to identify the underlying causes to prevent disease progression. Since the proportion of men with distant metastases at diagnosis remains high, early detection of let

Objectives The objective of this study is to find clinical variables that predict the prognosis for men with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) in a Swedish real-life CRPC cohort, including a risk group classification to clarify the risk of succumbing to prostate cancer. This is a natural history cohort representing the premodern drug era before the introduction of novel hormonal drug therapies. Methods PSA tests from the clinical chemistry laboratories serving health care in six regions of Sweden were retrieved and cross-linked to the National Prostate Cancer Registry (NPCR) to identify men with a prostate cancer diagnosis. Through further cross-linking with data sources at the Swedish Board of Health and Welfare, we retrieved other relevant information such as prescribed drugs, hospitalizations, and cause of death. Men entered the CRPC cohort at the first date of doubling of their PSA nadir value with the last value being >2 ng/ml, or an absolute increase of >5 ng/ml or more, whilst on 3 months of medical castration or if they had been surgically castrated (n = 4098). By combining the two variables with the largest C-statistics, “PSA at time of CRPC” and “PSA doubling time,” a risk group classification was created. Rsults PSA-DT and PSA at date of CRPC are the strongest variables associated with PC specific survival. At the end of follow-up, the proportion of men who died due to PC was 57%, 71%, 81%, 86%, and 89% for risk categories one through five, respectively. The median overall survival in our cohort of men with CRPC was 1.86 years (95% CI: 1.79–1.97). Conclusion For a man with castration-resistant prostate cancer, there is a high probability that this will be the main cause contributing to his death. However, there is a significant difference in mortality that varies in relation to tumor burden assessed as PSA doubling time and PSA at time of CRCP. This information could be used in a clinical setting when deciding when to treat more or less ag

Objective: Although surveillance after radical prostatectomy routinely includes repeated prostate specific antigen (PSA)-testing for many years, biochemical recurrence often occurs without further clinical progression. We therefore hypothesised that follow-up can be shortened for many patients without increasing the risk of prostate cancer death. We investigated the long-term probabilities of PSA recurrence, metastases and prostate cancer death in patients without biochemical recurrence five and 10 years after radical prostatectomy. Design: Prospective cohort study. Stratification by Gleason score (<= 3+4=7or >= 4+3=7), pathological tumour stage (pT2 or >= pT3) and negative or positive surgical margins. Setting: Between 1989 and 1998, 14 urological centres in Scandinavia randomised patients to the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group study number 4 (SPCG-4) trial.ParticipationAll 306 patients from the SPCG-4 trial who underwent radical prostatectomy within 1year from inclusion were eligible. Four patients were excluded due to surgery-related death (n=1) or salvage radiotherapy or hormonal treatment within 6weeks from surgery (n=3). Primary outcome measures: Cumulative incidences and absolute differences in metastatic disease and prostate cancer death. Results: We analysed 302 patients with complete follow-up during a median of 24 years. Median preoperative PSA was 9.8ng/mL and median age was 65 years. For patients without biochemical recurrence 5 years after radical prostatectomy the 20-year probability of biochemical recurrence was 25% among men with Gleason score <= 3+4=7and 57% among men with Gleason score >= 4+3=7; the probabilities for metastases were 0.8% and 17%; and for prostate cancer death 0.8% and 12%, respectively. The long-term probabilities were higher for pT >= 3versus pT2 and for positive versus negative surgical margins. Limitations include small size of the cohort. Conclusion: Many patients with favourable histopathology without bio

Introduction & Objectives: Although surveillance after radical prostatectomy routinely includes repeated Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA)-testing for many years, biochemical recurrence often occurs without further clinical progression. We therefore hypothesised that follow-up can be shortened for many patients without increasing the risk for prostate cancer death. We investigated the long-term probabilities of PSA recurrence, metastases and prostate cancer death in patients without biochemical recurrence 5 and 10 years after radical prostatectomy. Materials & Methods: Between 1989 and 1998, 14 urological centres in Scandinavia randomized patients to the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group study number 4 (SPCG-4) trial. Data was collected prospectively. All 306 patients from the SPCG-4 trial who underwent radical prostatectomy within 1 year from inclusion were eligible in our cohort. 4 patients were excluded due to surgery-related death (n=1) or salvage radiotherapy or hormonal treatment within 6 weeks from surgery (n=3). We stratified by Gleason score (≤3+4=7 or ≥4+3=7), pathological tumour stage (pT2 or ≥pT3), and negative or positive surgical margins. We analysed the cumulative incidences and absolute differences in metastatic disease and prostate cancer death. Results: We analysed 302 patients with complete follow-up during a median of 18 years. Median preoperative PSA was 9.8 ng/ml and median age at inclusion was 65 years. For patients without biochemical recurrence 5 years after radical prostatectomy the 20-year probability of biochemical recurrence was 25% among men with Gleason score ≤3+4=7 and 57% among men with Gleason score ≥4+3=7; the probabilities for metastases were 0.8% and 17%; and for prostate cancer death 0.8% and 12% respectively. The long-term probabilities were higher for pT≥3 vs. pT2 and for positive vs. negative surgical margins. Conclusions: Following radical prostatectomy, patients with Gleason score ≤3+4=7 without biochemical recurrenc