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1. Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

Author

Bates, Amanda E, Primack, Richard B, Biggar, Brandy S, Bird, Tomas J, Clinton, Mary E, Command, Rylan J, Richards, Cerren, Shellard, Marc, Geraldi, Nathan R, Vergara, Valeria, Acevedo-Charry, Orlando, Colón-Piñeiro, Zuania, Ocampo, David, Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia, Sánchez-Clavijo, Lina M, Adamescu, Cristian M, Cheval, Sorin, Racoviceanu, Tudor, Adams, Matthew D, Kalisa, Egide, Kuuire, Vincent Z, Aditya, Vikram, Anderwald, Pia, Wiesmann, Samuel, Wipf, Sonja, Badihi, Gal, Henderson, Matthew G, Loetscher, Hanspeter, Baerenfaller, Katja, Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro, Bulleri, Fabio, Bertocci, Iacopo, Maggi, Elena, Rindi, Luca, Ravaglioli, Chiara, Boerder, Kristina, Bonnel, Julien, Mathias, Delphine, Archambault, Philippe, Chauvaud, Laurent, Braun, Camrin D, Thorrold, Simon R, Brownscombe, Jacob W, Midwood, Jonathan D, Boston, Christine M, Brooks, Jill L, Cooke, Steven J, China, Victor, Roll, Uri, Belmaker, Jonathan, Zvuloni, Assaf, Coll, Marta, Ortega, Miquel, Connors, Brendan, Lacko, Lisa, Jayathilake, Dinusha RM, Costello, Mark J, Crimmins, Theresa M, Barnett, LoriAnne, Denny, Ellen G, Gerst, Katharine L, Marsh, RL, Posthumus, Erin E, Rodriguez, Reilly, Rosemartin, Alyssa, Schaffer, Sara N, Switzer, Jeff R, Wong, Kevin, Cunningham, Susan J, Sumasgutner, Petra, Amar, Arjun, Thomson, Robert L, Stofberg, Miqkayla, Hofmeyr, Sally, Suri, Jessleena, Stuart-Smith, Rick D, Day, Paul B, Edgar, Graham J, Cooper, Antonia T, De Leo, Fabio Cabrera, Garner, Grant, Brisay, Paulson G Des, Schrimpf, Michael B, Koper, Nicola, Diamond, Michael S, Dwyer, Ross G, Baker, Cameron J, Franklin, Craig E, Efrat, Ron, Berger-Tal, Oded, Hatzofe, Ohad, Eguíluz, Víctor M, Rodríguez, Jorge P, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Elustondo, David, Calatayud, Vicent, English, Philina A, Archer, Stephanie K, Dudas, Sarah E, and Haggarty, Dana R

Subjects
Life on Land, Pandemic, Biodiversity, Restoration, Global monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Biological Sciences, Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Ecology
Abstract

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus, initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness.

Published
2021

3. Mapping poverty using mobile phone and satellite data

Author

Steele, Jessica E, Sundsøy, Pål Roe, Pezzulo, Carla, Alegana, Victor A, Bird, Tomas J, Blumenstock, Joshua, Bjelland, Johannes, Engø-Monsen, Kenth, de Montjoye, Yves-Alexandre, Iqbal, Asif M, Hadiuzzaman, Khandakar N, Lu, Xin, Wetter, Erik, Tatem, Andrew J, and Bengtsson, Linus

Subjects
Geomatic Engineering, Engineering, Human Society, Generic health relevance, No Poverty, Cell Phone, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Poverty, Predictive Value of Tests, Satellite Communications, poverty mapping, mobile phone data, Bayesian geostatistical modelling, remote sensing, General Science & Technology
Abstract

Poverty is one of the most important determinants of adverse health outcomes globally, a major cause of societal instability and one of the largest causes of lost human potential. Traditional approaches to measuring and targeting poverty rely heavily on census data, which in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are unavailable or out-of-date. Alternate measures are needed to complement and update estimates between censuses. This study demonstrates how public and private data sources that are commonly available for LMICs can be used to provide novel insight into the spatial distribution of poverty. We evaluate the relative value of modelling three traditional poverty measures using aggregate data from mobile operators and widely available geospatial data. Taken together, models combining these data sources provide the best predictive power (highest r2 = 0.78) and lowest error, but generally models employing mobile data only yield comparable results, offering the potential to measure poverty more frequently and at finer granularity. Stratifying models into urban and rural areas highlights the advantage of using mobile data in urban areas and different data in different contexts. The findings indicate the possibility to estimate and continually monitor poverty rates at high spatial resolution in countries with limited capacity to support traditional methods of data collection.

Published
2017

5. Is my model fit for purpose? Validating a population model for predicting freshwater fish responses to flow management

Author

Hale, Robin, primary, Yen, Jian D. L., additional, Todd, Charles R., additional, Stuart, Ivor G., additional, Wootton, Henry F., additional, Thiem, Jason D., additional, Koehn, John D., additional, Tonkin, Zeb, additional, Lyon, Jarod P., additional, McCarthy, Michael A., additional, Bird, Tomas J., additional, and Fanson, Ben G., additional

Published
2023
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6. Considerations for Water Temperature-Related Fishery Closures in Recreational Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) Catch and Release Fisheries: A Case Study from Eastern Canada

Author

Van Leeuwen, Travis E., primary, Lehnert, Sarah J., additional, Breau, Cindy, additional, Fitzsimmons, Michelle, additional, Kelly, Nicholas I., additional, Dempson, J. Brian, additional, Neville, Victoria M., additional, Young, Mark, additional, Keefe, Donald, additional, Bird, Tomas J., additional, and Cote, David, additional

Published
2023
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8. Geographical range, heat tolerance and invasion success in aquatic species

Author

Bates, Amanda E, McKelvie, Catherine M, Sorte, Cascade JB, Morley, Simon A, Jones, Nicholas AR, Mondon, Julie A, Bird, Tomas J, and Quinn, Gerry

Subjects
Life Below Water, Animals, Anura, Conservation of Natural Resources, Ecosystem, Fishes, Geography, Hot Temperature, Introduced Species, Invertebrates, Biological Sciences, Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Medical and Health Sciences
Abstract

Species with broader geographical ranges are expected to be ecological generalists, while species with higher heat tolerances may be relatively competitive at more extreme and increasing temperatures. Thus, both traits are expected to relate to increased survival during transport to new regions of the globe, and once there, establishment and spread. Here, we explore these expectations using datasets of latitudinal range breadth and heat tolerance in freshwater and marine invertebrates and fishes. After accounting for the latitude and hemisphere of each species’ native range, we find that species introduced to freshwater systems have broader geographical ranges in comparison to native species. Moreover, introduced species are more heat tolerant than related native species collected from the same habitats. We further test for differences in range breadth and heat tolerance in relation to invasion success by comparing species that have established geographically restricted versus extensive introduced distributions. We find that geographical range size is positively related to invasion success in freshwater species only. However, heat tolerance is implicated as a trait correlated to widespread occurrence of introduced populations in both freshwater and marine systems. Our results emphasize the importance of formal risk assessments before moving heat tolerant species to novel locations.

Published
2013

17. Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

Author

Bates, Amanda E., primary, Primack, Richard B., additional, Biggar, Brandy S., additional, Bird, Tomas J., additional, Clinton, Mary E., additional, Command, Rylan J., additional, Richards, Cerren, additional, Shellard, Marc, additional, Geraldi, Nathan R., additional, Vergara, Valeria, additional, Acevedo-Charry, Orlando, additional, Colón-Piñeiro, Zuania, additional, Ocampo, David, additional, Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia, additional, Sánchez-Clavijo, Lina M., additional, Adamescu, Cristian M., additional, Cheval, Sorin, additional, Racoviceanu, Tudor, additional, Adams, Matthew D., additional, Kalisa, Egide, additional, Kuuire, Vincent Z., additional, Aditya, Vikram, additional, Anderwald, Pia, additional, Wiesmann, Samuel, additional, Wipf, Sonja, additional, Badihi, Gal, additional, Henderson, Matthew G., additional, Loetscher, Hanspeter, additional, Baerenfaller, Katja, additional, Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro, additional, Bulleri, Fabio, additional, Bertocci, Iacopo, additional, Maggi, Elena, additional, Rindi, Luca, additional, Ravaglioli, Chiara, additional, Boerder, Kristina, additional, Bonnel, Julien, additional, Mathias, Delphine, additional, Archambault, Philippe, additional, Chauvaud, Laurent, additional, Braun, Camrin D., additional, Thorrold, Simon R., additional, Brownscombe, Jacob W., additional, Midwood, Jonathan D., additional, Boston, Christine M., additional, Brooks, Jill L., additional, Cooke, Steven J., additional, China, Victor, additional, Roll, Uri, additional, Belmaker, Jonathan, additional, Zvuloni, Assaf, additional, Coll, Marta, additional, Ortega, Miquel, additional, Connors, Brendan, additional, Lacko, Lisa, additional, Jayathilake, Dinusha R.M., additional, Costello, Mark J., additional, Crimmins, Theresa M., additional, Barnett, LoriAnne, additional, Denny, Ellen G., additional, Gerst, Katharine L., additional, Marsh, R.L., additional, Posthumus, Erin E., additional, Rodriguez, Reilly, additional, Rosemartin, Alyssa, additional, Schaffer, Sara N., additional, Switzer, Jeff R., additional, Wong, Kevin, additional, Cunningham, Susan J., additional, Sumasgutner, Petra, additional, Amar, Arjun, additional, Thomson, Robert L., additional, Stofberg, Miqkayla, additional, Hofmeyr, Sally, additional, Suri, Jessleena, additional, Stuart-Smith, Rick D., additional, Day, Paul B., additional, Edgar, Graham J., additional, Cooper, Antonia T., additional, De Leo, Fabio Cabrera, additional, Garner, Grant, additional, Des Brisay, Paulson G., additional, Schrimpf, Michael B., additional, Koper, Nicola, additional, Diamond, Michael S., additional, Dwyer, Ross G., additional, Baker, Cameron J., additional, Franklin, Craig E., additional, Efrat, Ron, additional, Berger-Tal, Oded, additional, Hatzofe, Ohad, additional, Eguíluz, Víctor M., additional, Rodríguez, Jorge P., additional, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, additional, Elustondo, David, additional, Calatayud, Vicent, additional, English, Philina A., additional, Archer, Stephanie K., additional, Dudas, Sarah E., additional, Haggarty, Dana R., additional, Gallagher, Austin J., additional, Shea, Brendan D., additional, Shipley, Oliver N., additional, Gilby, Ben L., additional, Ballantyne, Jasmine, additional, Olds, Andrew D., additional, Henderson, Christopher J., additional, Schlacher, Thomas A., additional, Halliday, William D., additional, Brown, Nicholas A.W., additional, Woods, Mackenzie B., additional, Balshine, Sigal, additional, Juanes, Francis, additional, Rider, Mitchell J., additional, Albano, Patricia S., additional, Hammerschlag, Neil, additional, Hays, Graeme C., additional, Esteban, Nicole, additional, Pan, Yuhang, additional, He, Guojun, additional, Tanaka, Takanao, additional, Hensel, Marc J.S., additional, Orth, Robert J., additional, Patrick, Christopher J., additional, Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas, additional, Olsson, Olof, additional, Hessing-Lewis, Margot L., additional, Higgs, Nicholas D., additional, Hindell, Mark A., additional, McMahon, Clive R., additional, Harcourt, Rob, additional, Guinet, Christophe, additional, Hirsch, Sarah E., additional, Perrault, Justin R., additional, Hoover, Shelby R., additional, Reilly, Jennifer D., additional, Hobaiter, Catherine, additional, Gruber, Thibaud, additional, Huveneers, Charlie, additional, Udyawer, Vinay, additional, Clarke, Thomas M., additional, Kroesen, Laura P., additional, Hik, David S., additional, Cherry, Seth G., additional, Del Bel Belluz, Justin A., additional, Jackson, Jennifer M., additional, Lai, Shengjie, additional, Lamb, Clayton T., additional, LeClair, Gregory D., additional, Parmelee, Jeffrey R., additional, Chatfield, Matthew W.H., additional, Frederick, Cheryl A., additional, Lee, Sangdon, additional, Park, Hyomin, additional, Choi, Jaein, additional, LeTourneux, Frédéric, additional, Grandmont, Thierry, additional, de-Broin, Frédéric Dulude, additional, Bêty, Joël, additional, Gauthier, Gilles, additional, Legagneux, Pierre, additional, Lewis, Jesse S., additional, Haight, Jeffrey, additional, Liu, Zhu, additional, Lyon, Jarod P., additional, Hale, Robin, additional, D'Silva, Dallas, additional, MacGregor-Fors, Ian, additional, Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique, additional, Estela, Felipe A., additional, Sánchez-Sarria, Camilo E., additional, García-Arroyo, Michelle, additional, Aguirre-Samboní, Giann K., additional, Franco Morales, Juan C., additional, Malamud, Shahar, additional, Gavriel, Tal, additional, Buba, Yehezkel, additional, Salingré, Shira, additional, Lazarus, Mai, additional, Yahel, Ruthy, additional, Ari, Yigael Ben, additional, Miller, Eyal, additional, Sade, Rotem, additional, Lavian, Guy, additional, Birman, Ziv, additional, Gury, Manor, additional, Baz, Harel, additional, Baskin, Ilia, additional, Penn, Alon, additional, Dolev, Amit, additional, Licht, Ogen, additional, Karkom, Tabi, additional, Davidzon, Sharon, additional, Berkovitch, Avi, additional, Yaakov, Ofer, additional, Manenti, Raoul, additional, Mori, Emiliano, additional, Ficetola, Gentile Francesco, additional, Lunghi, Enrico, additional, March, David, additional, Godley, Brendan J., additional, Martin, Cecilia, additional, Mihaly, Steven F., additional, Barclay, David R., additional, Thomson, Dugald J.M., additional, Dewey, Richard, additional, Bedard, Jeannette, additional, Miller, Aroha, additional, Dearden, Amber, additional, Chapman, Jennifer, additional, Dares, Lauren, additional, Borden, Laura, additional, Gibbs, Donna, additional, Schultz, Jessica, additional, Sergeenko, Nikita, additional, Francis, Fiona, additional, Weltman, Amanda, additional, Moity, Nicolas, additional, Ramírez-González, Jorge, additional, Mucientes, Gonzalo, additional, Alonso-Fernández, Alexandre, additional, Namir, Itai, additional, Bar-Massada, Avi, additional, Chen, Ron, additional, Yedvab, Shmulik, additional, Okey, Thomas A., additional, Oppel, Steffen, additional, Arkumarev, Volen, additional, Bakari, Samuel, additional, Dobrev, Vladimir, additional, Saravia-Mullin, Victoria, additional, Bounas, Anastasios, additional, Dobrev, Dobromir, additional, Kret, Elzbieta, additional, Mengistu, Solomon, additional, Pourchier, Cloé, additional, Ruffo, Alazar, additional, Tesfaye, Million, additional, Wondafrash, Mengistu, additional, Nikolov, Stoyan C., additional, Palmer, Charles, additional, Sileci, Lorenzo, additional, Rex, Patrick T., additional, Lowe, Christopher G., additional, Peters, Francesc, additional, Pine, Matthew K., additional, Radford, Craig A., additional, Wilson, Louise, additional, McWhinnie, Lauren, additional, Scuderi, Alessia, additional, Jeffs, Andrew G., additional, Prudic, Kathleen L., additional, Larrivée, Maxim, additional, McFarland, Kent P., additional, Solis, Rodrigo, additional, Hutchinson, Rebecca A., additional, Queiroz, Nuno, additional, Furtado, Miguel A., additional, Sims, David W., additional, Southall, Emily, additional, Quesada-Rodriguez, Claudio A., additional, Diaz-Orozco, Jessica P., additional, Rodgers, Ku'ulei S., additional, Severino, Sarah J.L., additional, Graham, Andrew T., additional, Stefanak, Matthew P., additional, Madin, Elizabeth M.P., additional, Ryan, Peter G., additional, Maclean, Kyle, additional, Weideman, Eleanor A., additional, Şekercioğlu, Çağan H., additional, Kittelberger, Kyle D., additional, Kusak, Josip, additional, Seminoff, Jeffrey A., additional, Hanna, Megan E., additional, Shimada, Takahiro, additional, Meekan, Mark G., additional, Smith, Martin K.S., additional, Mokhatla, Mohlamatsane M., additional, Soh, Malcolm C.K., additional, Pang, Roanna Y.T., additional, Ng, Breyl X.K., additional, Lee, Benjamin P.Y.-H., additional, Loo, Adrian H.B., additional, Er, Kenneth B.H., additional, Souza, Gabriel B.G., additional, Stallings, Christopher D., additional, Curtis, Joseph S., additional, Faletti, Meaghan E., additional, Peake, Jonathan A., additional, Schram, Michael J., additional, Wall, Kara R., additional, Terry, Carina, additional, Rothendler, Matt, additional, Zipf, Lucy, additional, Ulloa, Juan Sebastián, additional, Hernández-Palma, Angélica, additional, Gómez-Valencia, Bibiana, additional, Cruz-Rodríguez, Cristian, additional, Herrera-Varón, Yenifer, additional, Roa, Margarita, additional, Rodríguez-Buriticá, Susana, additional, Ochoa-Quintero, Jose Manuel, additional, Vardi, Reut, additional, Vázquez, Víctor, additional, Requena-Mesa, Christian, additional, Warrington, Miyako H., additional, Taylor, Michelle E., additional, Woodall, Lucy C., additional, Stefanoudis, Paris V., additional, Zhang, Xiangliang, additional, Yang, Qiang, additional, Zukerman, Yuval, additional, Sigal, Zehava, additional, Ayali, Amir, additional, Clua, Eric E.G., additional, Carzon, Pamela, additional, Seguine, Clementine, additional, Corradini, Andrea, additional, Pedrotti, Luca, additional, Foley, Catherine M., additional, Gagnon, Catherine Alexandra, additional, Panipakoochoo, Elijah, additional, Milanes, Celene B., additional, Botero, Camilo M., additional, Velázquez, Yunior R., additional, Milchakova, Nataliya A., additional, Morley, Simon A., additional, Martin, Stephanie M., additional, Nanni, Veronica, additional, Otero, Tanya, additional, Wakeling, Julia, additional, Abarro, Sarah, additional, Piou, Cyril, additional, Sobral, Ana F.L., additional, Soto, Eulogio H., additional, Weigel, Emily G., additional, Bernal-Ibáñez, Alejandro, additional, Gestoso, Ignacio, additional, Cacabelos, Eva, additional, Cagnacci, Francesca, additional, Devassy, Reny P., additional, Loretto, Matthias-Claudio, additional, Moraga, Paula, additional, Rutz, Christian, additional, and Duarte, Carlos M., additional

Published
2021
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19. Efficiency of electrofishing in turbid lowland rivers: implications for measuring temporal change in fish populations

Author

Lyon, Jarod P., Bird, Tomas, Nicol, Simon, Kearns, Joanne, O'Mahony, Justin, Todd, Charles R., Cowx, Ian G., and Bradshaw, Corey J.A.

Subjects
Electroreception -- Research, Earth sciences
Abstract

To quantify how electrofishing capture probability varies over time and across physiochemical and disturbance gradients in a turbid lowland river, we tagged between 68 and 95 fish x [year.sup.-1] with radio transmitters and up to 424 fish x [year.sup.-1] with external and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. We surveyed the site noninvasively using radiotelemetry to determine which of the radio-tagged fish were present (effectively closing the radio-tagged population to emigration) and then electrofished to estimate the proportion of available fish that were captured based on both this and standard mark-recapture methods. We replicated the electrofishing surveys three times over a minimum of 12 days each year, for 7 years. Electrofishing capture probability varied between 0.020 and 0.310 over the 7 years and between four different large-bodied species (Murray cod (Maccullochellapeelii), trout cod (Maccullochella macquariensis), golden perch (Macquaria ambigua ambigua), and silver perch (Bidyanus bidyanus)). River turbidity associated with increased river discharge negatively influenced capture probability. Increasing fish length increased detection of fish up to 500 mm for Murray cod, after which capture probability decreased. Variation in capture probability in large lowland rivers results in additional uncertainty when estimating population size or relative abundance. Research and monitoring programs using fish as an indicator should incorporate strategies to lessen potential error that might result from changes in capture probabilities. Afin de quantifier les variations de la probability de prise a la peche electrique dans le temps et le long de gradients physicochimiques et de perturbation dans une riviere turbide de basse terre, nous avons dote de 68 a 95 poissons x [annee.sup.-1] de radioemetteurs et jusqu'a 424 poissons x [annee.sup.-1] d'etiquettes externes et de transpondeurs passifs integres (PIT). Nous avons sonde le site de maniere non intrusive par radiotelemetrie afin de determiner lesquels des poissons radioetiquetes etaient presents (excluant du fait l'emigration pour la population radioetiquetee), puis effectue une peche electrique pour estimer la proportion de poissons disponibles captures selon cette methode et des methodes de marquage-recapture normales. Nous avons repete les leves par peche electrique trois fois sur au moins 12 jours chaque annee, pendant sept ans. La probabilite de capture par peche electrique variait dans une fourchette de 0,020 a 0,310 sur les sept ans et pour quatre especes de gros poissons (la morue de Murray (Maccullochella peelii), la perche Macquarie (Maccullochella macquariensis), la perche doree (Macquaria ambigua ambigua)etla perche argentee (Bidyanus bidyanus)). La turbidite de la riviere associee a un debit accru avait une incidence negative sur la probabilite de capture. Plus la longueur des poissons etait grande, plus la detection etait elevee pour les poissons allant jusqu'a 500 mm en ce qui concerne la morue de Murray; au-dela de cette longueur, la probabilite diminuait. Les variations de la probabilite de capture dans les grandes rivieres de basse terre introduisent une incertitude supplementaire dans l'estimation de la taille ou de l'abondance relative des populations. Les programmes de recherche et de surveillance qui se servent des poissons comme indicateurs devraient comprendre des strategies visant a limiter l'erreur qui pourrait resulter des variations de la probabilite de capture. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction A cornerstone of biological sampling methods is the estimation of the presence or abundance of target organisms (Phillips et al. 2009; Magurran et al. 2010; Kepner et al. 2000). [...]

Published
2014
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22. Additional file 1 of Using gridded population and quadtree sampling units to support survey sample design in low-income settings

Author

Sarchil Hama Qader, Lefebvre, Veronique, Tatem, Andrew J., Pape, Utz, Jochem, Warren, Himelein, Kristen, Ninneman, Amy, Wolburg, Philip, Nunez-Chaim, Gonzalo, Bengtsson, Linus, and Bird, Tomas

Abstract

Additional file 1: Figure S1. Stratification map. Table S1. Summary of allocated sample units within strata. Table S2. Source of IDP settlements boundaries. Figure S2. IDP boundary creation. Section 2. Quadtree R based code. Section 3. Field map creation.

Published
2020
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23. Climate resilience in marine protected areas and the ‘Protection Paradox’

Author

Bates, Amanda E., Cooke, Robert S.C., Duncan, Murray I., Edgar, Graham J., Bruno, John F., Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro, Côté, Isabelle M., Lefcheck, Jonathan S., Costello, Mark John, Barrett, Neville, Bird, Tomas J., Fenberg, Phillip B., and Stuart-Smith, Rick D.

Subjects
fungi
Abstract

Restricting human activities through Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is assumed to create more resilient biological communities with a greater capacity to resist and recover following climate events. Here we review the evidence linking protection from local pressures (e.g., fishing and habitat destruction) with increased resilience. Despite strong theoretical underpinnings, studies have only rarely attributed resilience responses to the recovery of food webs and habitats, and increases in the diversity of communities and populations. When detected, resistance to ocean warming and recovery after extreme events in MPAs have small effect sizes against a backdrop of natural variability. By contrast, large die-offs are well described from MPAs following climate stress events. This may be in part because protection from one set of pressures or drivers (such as fishing) can select for species that are highly sensitive to others (such as warming), creating a ‘Protection Paradox’. Given that climate change is overwhelming the resilience capacity of marine ecosystems, the only primary solution is to reduce carbon emissions. High-quality monitoring data in both space and time can also identify emergent resilience signals that do exist, in combination with adequate reference data to quantify the initial system state. This knowledge will allow networks of diverse protected areas to incorporate spatial refugia against climate change, and identify resilient biological components of natural systems. Sufficient spatial replication further offers insurance against losses in any given MPA, and the possibility for many weak signals of resilience to accumulate.

Published
2019

24. A Novel Approach to the Automatic Designation of Predefined Census Enumeration Areas and Population Sampling Frames : A Case Study in Somalia

Author

Qader, Sarchil, Lefebvre, Veronique, Ninneman, Amy, Himelein, Kristen, Pape, Utz, Bengtsson, Linus, Tatem, Andy, and Bird, Tomas

Subjects
CENSUS DATA, SAMPLING FRAME, DEMOGRAPHICS, POPULATION DENSITY, ENUMERATION AREA, REMOTE SENSING
Abstract

Enumeration areas are the operational geographic units for the collection, dissemination, and analysis of census data and are often used as a national sampling frame for various types of surveys. Traditionally, enumeration areas are created by manually digitizing small geographic units on high-resolution satellite imagery or physically walking the boundaries of units, both of which are highly time, cost, and labor intensive. In addition, creating enumeration areas requires considering the size of the population and area within each unit. This is an optimization problem that can best be solved by a computer. This paper, for the first time, produces an automatic designation of predefined census enumeration areas based on high-resolution gridded population and settlement data sets and using publicly available natural and administrative boundaries. This automated approach is compared with manually digitized enumeration areas that were created in urban areas in Mogadishu and Hargeisa for the United Nations Population Estimation Survey for Somalia in 2014. The automatically generated enumeration areas are consistent with standard enumeration areas, including having identifiable boundaries to field teams on the ground, and appropriate sizing and population for coverage by an enumerator. Furthermore, the automated urban enumeration areas have no gaps. The paper extends this work to rural Somalia, for which no records exist of previous enumeration area demarcations. This work shows the time, labor, and cost-saving value of automated enumeration area delineation and points to the potential for broadly available tools that are suitable for low-income and data-poor settings but applicable to potentially wider contexts.

Published
2019

25. Incursions of sea lamprey, Petromyzon marinus, and striped bass, Morone saxatilis, in Labrador waters: Episodic events or evidence of a northward range expansion?

Author

Van Leeuwen, Travis E., Cote, David, Pretty, Christina, Townley, Joseph, Poole, Rebecca, Dempson, Brian, Bird, Tomas J., Kippenhuck, Charlene, and Morris, Corey

Subjects
STRIPED bass, SEA lamprey, SPECIES, INTRODUCED species, PREDATION
Abstract

We describe observations of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) and striped bass (Morone saxatilis) incursions into Labrador, Canada. While P. marinus have been periodically observed in similar latitudes, their numbers have conspicuously increased in estuarine environments in 2020. In contrast, M. saxatilis were not observed from Labrador until 2017 but appear to be declining after the initial surge in abundance that peaked in 2018. It remains unclear whether spawning populations of either species exist. Given the potential to negatively affect species of commercial and cultural importance through predation, follow‐up surveys are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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27. Climate resilience in marine protected areas and the ‘Protection Paradox’

Author

Bates, Amanda E., primary, Cooke, Robert S.C., additional, Duncan, Murray I., additional, Edgar, Graham J., additional, Bruno, John F., additional, Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro, additional, Côté, Isabelle M., additional, Lefcheck, Jonathan S., additional, Costello, Mark John, additional, Barrett, Neville, additional, Bird, Tomas J., additional, Fenberg, Phillip B., additional, and Stuart-Smith, Rick D., additional

Published
2019
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28. Identifying residential neighbourhood types from settlement points in a machine learning approach

Author

Jochem, Warren, Bird, Tomas, and Tatem, Andrew

Abstract

Remote sensing techniques are now commonly applied to map and monitor urban land uses to measure growth and to assist with development and planning. Recent work in this area has highlighted the use of textures and other spatial features that can be measured in very high spatial resolution imagery. Far less attention has been given to using geospatial vector data (i.e. points, lines, polygons) to map land uses. This paper presents an approach to distinguish residential settlement types (regular vs. irregular) using an existing database of settlement points locating structures. Nine data features describing the density, distance, angles, and spacing of the settlement points are calculated at multiple spatial scales. These data are analysed alone and with five common remote sensing measures on elevation, slope, vegetation, and nighttime lights in a supervised machine learning approach to classify land use areas. The method was tested in seven provinces of Afghanistan (Balkh, Helmand, Herat, Kabul, Kandahar, Kunduz, Nangarhar). Overall accuracy ranged from 78% in Kandahar to 90% in Nangarhar. This research demonstrates the potential to accurately map land uses from even the simplest representation of structures.

Published
2018

32. Sub-national mapping of population pyramids and dependency ratios in Africa and Asia

Author

Pezzulo, Carla, Hornby, Graeme M., Sorichetta, Alessandro, Gaughan, Andrea E., Linard, Catherine, Bird, Tomas J., Kerr, David, Lloyd, Christopher T., and Tatem, Andrew J.

Subjects
Statistics and Probability, Developing world, Data Descriptor, Asia, Geography, Généralités, Library and Information Sciences, Computer Science Applications, Education, Environmental social sciences, Socioeconomic Factors, Africa, Humans, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, Information Systems, Demography
Abstract

The age group composition of populations varies substantially across continents and within countries, and is linked to levels of development, health status and poverty. The subnational variability in the shape of the population pyramid as well as the respective dependency ratio are reflective of the different levels of development of a country and are drivers for a country's economic prospects and health burdens. Whether measured as the ratio between those of working age and those young and old who are dependent upon them, or through separate young and old-age metrics, dependency ratios are often highly heterogeneous between and within countries. Assessments of subnational dependency ratio and age structure patterns have been undertaken for specific countries and across high income regions, but to a lesser extent across the low income regions. In the framework of the WorldPop Project, through the assembly of over 100 million records across 6,389 subnational administrative units, subnational dependency ratio and high resolution gridded age/sex group datasets were produced for 87 countries in Africa and Asia., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Published
2017

33. Supplementary Information (SI) from Mapping poverty using mobile phone and satellite data

Author

Steele, Jessica, Sundsøy, Pål Roe, Pezzulo, Carla, Alegana, Victor A., Bird, Tomas J., Blumenstock, Joshua, Bjelland, Johannes, Engø-Monsen, Kenth, Yves-Alexandre De Montjoye, Iqbal, Asif M., Khandakar N. Hadiuzzaman, Lu, Xin, Wetter, Erik, Tatem, Andrew J., and Bengtsson, Linus

Subjects
1. No poverty
Abstract

The supplementary information provides a description for all input data used in this study, including their sources, units of measurement, and spatial resolutions. All methodologies used to process and analyse these data are fully referenced and detailed. Model specifications and additional poverty maps are also included with tables comparing covariates for national, urban, and rural models, as well as results comparing BGMs run with and without a spatial component.

Published
2017
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34. Dynamic denominators: the impact of seasonally varying population numbers on disease incidence estimates

Author

Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth, Wesolowski, Amy, Tatem, Andrew J, Alegana, Victor Adagi, Sorichetta, Alessandro, Linard, Catherine, Lourenço, Christoper, Ruktanonchai, Nick N.W., Graupe, Bonita, Bird, Tomas T.J., and Pezzulo, Carla

Subjects
Surveillance, Epidemiology, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Mobile phones, Health metrics, Seasonality, Epidémiologie, Santé publique, Disease incidence, Malaria
Abstract

Background: Reliable health metrics are crucial for accurately assessing disease burden and planning interventions. Many health indicators are measured through passive surveillance systems and are reliant on accurate estimates of denominators to transform case counts into incidence measures. These denominator estimates generally come from national censuses and use large area growth rates to estimate annual changes. Typically, they do not account for any seasonal fluctuations and thus assume a static denominator population. Many recent studies have highlighted the dynamic nature of human populations through quantitative analyses of mobile phone call data records and a range of other sources, emphasizing seasonal changes. In this study, we use mobile phone data to capture patterns of short-term human population movement and to map dynamism in population densities. Methods: We show how mobile phone data can be used to measure seasonal changes in health district population numbers, which are used as denominators for calculating district-level disease incidence. Using the example of malaria case reporting in Namibia we use 3.5 years of phone data to investigate the spatial and temporal effects of fluctuations in denominators caused by seasonal mobility on malaria incidence estimates. Results: We show that even in a sparsely populated country with large distances between population centers, such as Namibia, populations are highly dynamic throughout the year. We highlight how seasonal mobility affects malaria incidence estimates, leading to differences of up to 30 % compared to estimates created using static population maps. These differences exhibit clear spatial patterns, with likely overestimation of incidence in the high-prevalence zones in the north of Namibia and underestimation in lower-risk areas when compared to using static populations. Conclusion: The results here highlight how health metrics that rely on static estimates of denominators from censuses may differ substantially once mobility and seasonal variations are taken into account. With respect to the setting of malaria in Namibia, the results indicate that Namibia may actually be closer to malaria elimination than previously thought. More broadly, the results highlight how dynamic populations are. In addition to affecting incidence estimates, these changes in population density will also have an impact on allocation of medical resources. Awareness of seasonal movements has the potential to improve the impact of interventions, such as vaccination campaigns or distributions of commodities like bed nets., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Published
2016

35. Geospatial modeling of child mortality across 27 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Pezzulo, Carla, Bird, Tomas, Utazi, Edson C., Sorichetta, Alessandro, Tatem, Andrew J., Yourkavitch, Jennifer, and Burgert-Brucker, Clara R.

Abstract

Preventable mortality of children has been targeted as one of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals for the 2015-30 period. Global decreases in child mortality (4q1) have been seen, although sub-Saharan Africa remains an area of concern, with child mortality rates remaining high relative to global averages or even increasing in some cases. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa is highly heterogeneous. Thus, research that identifies primary risk factors and protective measures in the geographic context of sub-Saharan Africa is needed. In this study, household survey data collected by The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program aggregated at DHS sub-national area scale are used to evaluate the spatial distribution of child mortality (age 1 to 4) across 27 sub-Saharan Africa countries in relation to a number of demographic and health indicators collected in the DHS surveys. In addition, this report controls for spatial variation in potential environmental drivers of child mortality by modeling it against a suite of geospatial datasets. These datasets vary across the study area in an autoregressive spatial model that accounts for the spatial autocorrelation present in the data. This study shows that socio-demographic factors such as birth interval, stunting, access to health facilities and literacy, along with geospatial factors such as prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, variety of ethnic groups, mean temperature, and intensity of lights at night can explain up to 60% of the variance in child mortality across 255 DHS sub-national areas in the 27 countries. Additionally, three regions - Western, Central, and Eastern Africa - have markedly different mortality rates. By identifying the relative importance of policy-relevant socio-demographic and environmental factors, this study highlights priorities for research and programs targeting child mortality over the next decade.

Published
2016

39. Plasmodium falciparum malaria importation from Africa to China and its mortality: an analysis of driving factors

Author

Lai, Shengjie, primary, Wardrop, Nicola A., additional, Huang, Zhuojie, additional, Bosco, Claudio, additional, Sun, Junling, additional, Bird, Tomas, additional, Wesolowski, Amy, additional, Zhou, Sheng, additional, Zhang, Qian, additional, Zheng, Canjun, additional, Li, Zhongjie, additional, Tatem, Andrew J., additional, and Yu, Hongjie, additional

Published
2016
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40. Dynamic denominators: the impact of seasonally varying population numbers on disease incidence estimates

Author

zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth, primary, Alegana, Victor A., additional, Sorichetta, Alessandro, additional, Linard, Catherine, additional, Lourenço, Christoper, additional, Ruktanonchai, Nick W., additional, Graupe, Bonita, additional, Bird, Tomas J., additional, Pezzulo, Carla, additional, Wesolowski, Amy, additional, and Tatem, Andrew J., additional

Published
2016
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41. Combining capture–recapture data and known ages allows estimation of age‐dependent survival rates.

Author

Bird, Tomas, Lyon, Jarod, Wotherspoon, Simon, Todd, Charles, Tonkin, Zeb, and McCarthy, Michael

Subjects
*OTOLITHS, *SURVIVAL analysis (Biometry), *MURRAY cod, *TROUT cod, *BAYESIAN analysis
Abstract

In many animal populations, demographic parameters such as survival and recruitment vary markedly with age, as do parameters related to sampling, such as capture probability. Failing to account for such variation can result in biased estimates of population‐level rates. However, estimating age‐dependent survival rates can be challenging because ages of individuals are rarely known unless tagging is done at birth. For many species, it is possible to infer age based on size. In capture–recapture studies of such species, it is possible to use a growth model to infer the age at first capture of individuals. We show how to build estimates of age‐dependent survival into a capture–mark–recapture model based on data obtained in a capture–recapture study. We first show how estimates of age based on length increments closely match those based on definitive aging methods. In simulated analyses, we show that both individual ages and age‐dependent survival rates estimated from simulated data closely match true values. With our approach, we are able to estimate the age‐specific apparent survival rates of Murray and trout cod in the Murray River, Australia. Our model structure provides a flexible framework within which to investigate various aspects of how survival varies with age and will have extensions within a wide range of ecological studies of animals where age can be estimated based on size. Age‐specific estimates of survival rates for animals in the wild are hard to come by as ages of animals are rarely known without observing births of or sacrificing individuals to determine age. We integrate known‐age data from otoliths with observed changes in length in Murray cod and trout cod in Australia in order to estimate growth rates and age‐specific survival. Our results show how inclusion of auxiliary otolith data lead to more robust estimates of age and survival rates in these two species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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46. Distinguishing geographical range shifts from artefacts of detectability and sampling effort

Author

Bates, Amanda E., primary, Bird, Tomas J., additional, Stuart‐Smith, Rick D., additional, Wernberg, Thomas, additional, Sunday, Jennifer M., additional, Barrett, Neville S., additional, Edgar, Graham J., additional, Frusher, Stewart, additional, Hobday, Alistair J., additional, Pecl, Gretta T., additional, Smale, Dan A., additional, and McCarthy, Michael, additional

Published
2014
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47. Dynamic denominators: the impact of seasonally varying population numbers on disease incidence estimates.

Author

Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth zu, Alegana, Victor A., Sorichetta, Alessandro, Linard, Catherine, Lourenço, Christoper, Ruktanonchai, Nick W., Graupe, Bonita, Bird, Tomas J., Pezzulo, Carla, Wesolowski, Amy, and Tatem, Andrew J.

Subjects
CENSUS, MALARIA, PUBLIC health surveillance, RESEARCH funding, SEASONS, WIRELESS communications, DEMOGRAPHIC characteristics, DISEASE incidence
Abstract

Background: Reliable health metrics are crucial for accurately assessing disease burden and planning interventions. Many health indicators are measured through passive surveillance systems and are reliant on accurate estimates of denominators to transform case counts into incidence measures. These denominator estimates generally come from national censuses and use large area growth rates to estimate annual changes. Typically, they do not account for any seasonal fluctuations and thus assume a static denominator population. Many recent studies have highlighted the dynamic nature of human populations through quantitative analyses of mobile phone call data records and a range of other sources, emphasizing seasonal changes. In this study, we use mobile phone data to capture patterns of short-term human population movement and to map dynamism in population densities. Methods: We show how mobile phone data can be used to measure seasonal changes in health district population numbers, which are used as denominators for calculating district-level disease incidence. Using the example of malaria case reporting in Namibia we use 3.5 years of phone data to investigate the spatial and temporal effects of fluctuations in denominators caused by seasonal mobility on malaria incidence estimates. Results: We show that even in a sparsely populated country with large distances between population centers, such as Namibia, populations are highly dynamic throughout the year. We highlight how seasonal mobility affects malaria incidence estimates, leading to differences of up to 30 % compared to estimates created using static population maps. These differences exhibit clear spatial patterns, with likely overestimation of incidence in the high-prevalence zones in the north of Namibia and underestimation in lower-risk areas when compared to using static populations. Conclusion: The results here highlight how health metrics that rely on static estimates of denominators from censuses may differ substantially once mobility and seasonal variations are taken into account. With respect to the setting of malaria in Namibia, the results indicate that Namibia may actually be closer to malaria elimination than previously thought. More broadly, the results highlight how dynamic populations are. In addition to affecting incidence estimates, these changes in population density will also have an impact on allocation of medical resources. Awareness of seasonal movements has the potential to improve the impact of interventions, such as vaccination campaigns or distributions of commodities like bed nets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2016
Full Text
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49. Statistical solutions for error and bias in global citizen science datasets

Author

Bird, Tomas J., primary, Bates, Amanda E., additional, Lefcheck, Jonathan S., additional, Hill, Nicole A., additional, Thomson, Russell J., additional, Edgar, Graham J., additional, Stuart-Smith, Rick D., additional, Wotherspoon, Simon, additional, Krkosek, Martin, additional, Stuart-Smith, Jemina F., additional, Pecl, Gretta T., additional, Barrett, Neville, additional, and Frusher, Stewart, additional

Published
2014
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