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Abstract Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries adopted social distance measures and lockdowns of varying strictness. Social contact patterns are essential in driving the spread of respiratory infections, and country-specific measurements are needed. This study aimed to gain insights into changes in social contacts and behaviour during the early pandemic phase in Norway. Methods We conducted an online panel study among a nationally representative sample of Norwegian adults by age and gender. The panel study included six data collections waves between April and September 2020, and 2017 survey data from a random sample of the Norwegian population (including children

BackgroundNearly 100 million people are pushed into poverty every year due to catastrophic health expenditures (CHE). We evaluated the impact of cash support programs on healthcare utilization and CHE among households participating in a cluster-randomized controlled trial focusing on adolescent childbearing in rural Zambia.Methods and findingsThe trial recruited adolescent girls from 157 rural schools in 12 districts enrolled in grade 7 in 2016 and consisted of control, economic support, and economic support plus community dialogue arms. Economic support included 3 USD/month for the girls, 35 USD/year for their guardians, and up to 150 USD/year for school fees. Interviews were conducted with 3,870 guardians representing 4,110 girls, 1.5–2 years after the intervention period started. Utilization was defined as visits to formal health facilities, and CHE was health payments exceeding 10% of total household expenditures. The degree of inequality was measured using the Concentration Index. In the control arm, 26.1% of the households utilized inpatient care in the previous year compared to 26.7% in the economic arm (RR = 1.0; 95% CI: 0.9–1.2, p = 0.815) and 27.7% in the combined arm (RR = 1.1; 95% CI: 0.9–1.3, p = 0.586). Utilization of outpatient care in the previous 4 weeks was 40.7% in the control arm, 41.3% in the economic support (RR = 1.0; 95% CI: 0.8–1.3, p = 0.805), and 42.9% in the combined arm (RR = 1.1; 95% CI: 0.8–1.3, p = 0.378). About 10.4% of the households in the control arm experienced CHE compared to 11.6% in the economic (RR = 1.1; 95% CI: 0.8–1.5, p = 0.468) and 12.1% in the combined arm (RR = 1.1; 95% CI: 0.8–1.5, p = 0.468). Utilization of outpatient care and the risk of CHE was relatively higher among the least poor than the poorest households, however, the degree of inequality was relatively smaller in the intervention arms than in the control arm.ConclusionsEconomic support alone and in combination with community dialogue aiming to reduce early childbearing did not appear to have a substantial impact on healthcare utilization and CHE in rural Zambia. However, although cash transfer did not significantly improve healthcare utilization, it reduced the degree of inequality in outpatient healthcare utilization and CHE across wealth groups.Trial Registrationhttps://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02709967, ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier (NCT02709967).

Summary: Background: Severe anaemia is associated with high in-hospital mortality among young children. In malaria-endemic areas, surviving children also have an increased risk of mortality or readmission after hospital discharge. We conducted a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to determine the efficacy of monthly post-discharge malaria chemoprevention in children recovering from severe anaemia. Methods: This analysis was conducted according to PRISMA-IPD guidelines. We searched multiple databases on Aug 28, 2023, without date or language restrictions, for randomised controlled trials comparing monthly post-discharge malaria chemoprevention with placebo or standard of care among children (aged

Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis (EPTB) poses challenges from patient and health system perspectives. The cost-effectiveness analysis of the Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) test to diagnose pulmonary tuberculosis is documented. However, there are no economic evaluations for EPTB. Considering the reported better diagnostic sensitivity of the MPT64 test, this study explored its cost-effectiveness as an alternative diagnostic test. We conducted this economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of the MPT64 test compared to Xpert and ZN microscopy for EPTB adult patients. We utilised a Markov modelling approach to capture short- and long-term costs and benefits from a health system perspective. For the model inputs, we combined data from our cohort studies in Tanzania and peer-reviewed EPTB literature. We calculated the Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) by comparing the cost (in USD) of each diagnostic test and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) as health gain. We found the MPT64 test cost-effective for EPTB diagnosis and absolutely dominated ZN microscopy and Xpert using the baseline model inputs. A scenario analysis showed that the Xpert test might be the most cost-effective at its higher test sensitivity, which corresponds to using it to diagnose lymph node aspirates. The prevalence of HIV among EPTB cases, their probability of treatment, costs of ART, and the probability of the MPT64 test in detecting EPTB patients were the main parameters associated with the highest impact on ICER in one-way deterministic analysis. The most cost-effective option for EPTB at the baseline parameters was the MPT64 diagnostic test. Including the MPT64 test in EPTB diagnostic pathways for previously untreated patients can lead to better resource use. The Xpert test was the most cost-effective diagnostic intervention at a higher diagnostic test sensitivity in scenario analyses based on different sites of infection, such as for the lymph node aspirates.

Abstract Background An estimated 300,000 babies are born with sickle cell anaemia (SCA) annually. Affected children have chronic ill health and suffer premature death. Febrile illnesses such as malaria commonly precipitate acute crises in children with SCA. Thus, chemoprophylaxis for malaria is an important preventive strategy, but current regimes are either sub-optimally effective (e.g. monthly sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, SP) or difficult to adhere to (e.g. daily proguanil). We propose dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) as the agent with the most potential to be used across Africa. Methods This will be a randomised, double-blind, parallel-group superiority trial of weekly single-day courses of DP compared to monthly single-day courses of SP in children with SCA. The study will be conducted in eastern (Uganda) and southern (Malawi) Africa using randomisation stratified by body weight and study centre. Participants will be randomised using an allocation of 1:1 to DP or SP. We will investigate the efficacy, safety, acceptability and uptake and cost-effectiveness of malaria chemoprevention with weekly courses of DP vs monthly SP in 548 to 824 children with SCA followed up for 12–18 months. We will also assess toxicity from cumulative DP dosing and the development of resistance. Participant recruitment commenced on 30 April 2021; follow-up is ongoing. Discussion At the end of this study, findings will be used to inform regional health policy. This manuscript is prepared from protocol version 2.1 dated 1 January 2022. Trial registration The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04844099 . Registered on 08 April 2021.

Trial data have shown that post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) reduces the risk of readmission and death in children previously hospitalised with severe malarial anaemia. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to estimate the potential epidemiological impacts of PDMC in malaria-endemic countries in Africa.

Abstract Background It is impossible to meet all healthcare demands, but an open and fair rationing process may improve the public acceptability of priority setting in healthcare. Decision-making is subject to scrutiny by newspaper media, an important public institution and information source for discussions about rationing. In Norway, healthcare rationing has been subject to public debate both before and after the establishment of “The National System for Managed Introduction of New Health Technologies within the Specialist Health Service” (New Methods) in 2013. Aim To describe and assess the development of the public debate on Norwegian healthcare rationing through three cases in print media. Methods We purposively sampled Norwegian newspaper articles between 2012 and 2018 concerning three reimbursement decisions in the Norwegian system. The reimbursement decisions were ipilimumab (Yervoy, n = 45) against metastatic melanoma, nivolumab (Opdivo, n = 23) against non-small cell lung cancer, and nusinersen (Spinraza, n = 68) against spinal muscular atrophy. Cases were analysed separately using the qualitative method of systematic text condensation. Results Our analysis highlighted four common themes—money, rationales, patient stories, and process—and a unique theme for each case. Ipilimumab was uniquely themed by rationing rejection, nivolumab by healthcare two-tiering, and Spinraza by patients’ rights. We found wide media deliberation among a multitude of stakeholders in all cases. Perceptions of rationing were found to be chiefly aligned with previous empirical research. We found that the media reported more frequently on opposition to rationing compared to findings from previous studies on Norwegian healthcare decision-making attitudes. We think this was influenced by our selection of cases receiving extraordinary media attention, and from media sources being subject to political communication from special interest groups. Conclusion We observed that the introduction of New Methods institutionalised Norwegian healthcare rationing and isolated the public debate into conversations between stakeholders and decision makers outside the political sphere. The findings from these three extraordinary debates are not generalisable and should be seen as a stakeholder learning opportunity regarding media coverage and engagement with expensive specialist healthcare decision-making in Norway.

Abstract Background Since 2002, Tanzania has been implementing the focused Antenatal Care (ANC) model that recommended four antenatal care visits. In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) reintroduced the standard ANC model with more interventions including a minimum of eight contacts. However, cost-implications of these changes to the health system are unknown, particularly in countries like Tanzania, that failed to optimally implement the simpler focused ANC model. We compared the health system cost of providing ANC under the focused and the standard models at primary health facilities in Tanzania. Methods We used a micro-costing approach to identify and quantify resources used to implement the focused ANC model at six primary health facilities in Tanzania from July 2018 to June 2019. We also used the standard ANC implementation manual to identify and quantify additional resources required. We used basic salary and allowances to value personnel time while the Medical Store Department price catalogue and local market prices were used for other resources. Costs were collected in Tanzanian shillings and converted to 2018 US$. Results The health system cost of providing ANC services at six facilities (2 health centres and 4 dispensaries) was US$185,282 under the focused model. We estimated that the cost would increase by about 90% at health centres and 97% at dispensaries to US$358,290 by introducing the standard model. Personnel cost accounted for more than one third of the total cost, and more than two additional nurses are required per facility for the standard model. The costs per pregnancy increased from about US$33 to US$63 at health centres and from about US$37 to US$72 at dispensaries. Conclusion Introduction of a standard ANC model at primary health facilities in Tanzania may double resources requirement compared to current practice. Resources availability has been one of the challenges to effective implementation of the current focused ANC model. More research is required, to consider whether the additional costs are reasonable compared to the additional value for maternal and child health.

Chemoprevention with antimalarials is a key strategy for malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa. Three months of postdischarge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) reduces malaria-related mortality and morbidity in pre-school children recently discharged from hospital following recovery from severe anemia. Research on adherence to preventive antimalarials in children is scarce. We aimed to investigate the predictors for caregivers' adherence to three courses of monthly PDMC in Malawi. We used data from a cluster randomized implementation trial of PDMC in Malawi (n = 357). Modified Poisson regression for clustered data was used to obtain relative risks of predictors for full adherence to PDMC. We did not find a conclusive set of predictors for PDMC adherence. The distribution of households across a socio-economic index and caregivers' education showed mixed associations with poor adherence. Caregivers of children with four or more malaria infections in the past year were associated with reduced adherence. With these results, we cannot confirm the associations established in the literature for caregiver adherence to artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). PDMC combines multiple factors that complicate adherence. Our results may indicate that prevention interventions introduce a distinct complexity to ACT adherence behavior. Until we better understand this relationship, PDMC programs should ensure high program fidelity to sustain adherence by caregivers during implementation.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions, including promotion of social distancing, have been applied extensively in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding cognitive and psychological factors regulating precautionary behavior is important for future management. The present study examines the importance of selected factors as predictors of having visited or intended to visit crowded places. Six online questionnaire-based waves of data collection were conducted in April–October 2020 in a Norwegian panel (≥18 years). Sample size at Wave 1 was 1,400. In the present study, “Visited or intended to visit crowded places” for different types of locations were the dependent variables. Predictors included the following categories of items: Perceived response effectiveness, Self-efficacy, Vulnerability, Facilitating factors and Barriers. Data were analyzed with frequency and percentage distributions, descriptives, correlations, principal components analysis, negative binomial-, binary logistic-, and multiple linear regression, and cross-lagged panel models. Analyses of dimensionality revealed that a distinction had to be made between Grocery stores, a location visited by most, and locations visited by few (e.g., “Pub,” “Restaurants,” “Sports event”). We merged the latter set of variables into a countscore denoted as “Crowded places.” On the predictor side, 25 items were reduced to eight meanscores. Analyses of data from Wave 1 revealed a rather strong prediction of “Crowded places” and weaker associations with “Supermarket or other store for food.” Across waves, in multiple negative binomial regression models, three meanscore predictors turned out to be consistently associated with “Crowded places.” These include “Response effectiveness of individual action,” “Self-efficacy with regard to avoiding people,” and “Barriers.” In a prospective cross-lagged model, a combined Response effectiveness and Self-efficacy score (Cognition) predicted behavior (“Visited or intended to visit crowded places”) prospectively and vice versa. The results of this study suggest some potential to reduce people's visits to crowded locations during the pandemic through health education and behavior change approaches that focus on strengthening individuals' perceived response effectiveness and self-efficacy.

Abstract Background Evidence of health utility changes in patients who suffer from longstanding health complaints attributed to dental amalgam fillings are limited. The change in health utility outcomes enables calculating quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and facilitates the comparison with other health conditions. The purpose of this study was to estimate the validity and responsiveness of the EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D utilities following removal of dental amalgam fillings in patients with health complaints attributed to their amalgam fillings, and examine the ability of these instruments to detect minimally important changes over time. Methods Patients with medically unexplained physical symptoms, which they attributed to dental amalgam restorations, were recruited to a prospective cohort study in Norway. Two health state utility instruments, EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D, as well as self-reported general health complaints (GHC-index) and visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) were administered to all patients (n = 32) at baseline and at follow-up. The last two were used as criteria measures. Concurrent and predictive validities were examined using correlation coefficients. Responsiveness was assessed by the effect size (ES), standardized response mean (SRM), and relative efficiency. Minimally important change (MIC) was examined by distribution and anchor-based approaches. Results Concurrent validity of the EQ-5D-5L was similar to that of SF-6D utility. EQ-5D-5L was more responsive than SF-6D: the ES were 0.73 and 0.58 for EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D, respectively; SRM were 0.76 and 0.67, respectively. EQ-5D-5L was more efficient than SF-6D in detecting changes, but both were less efficient compared to criteria-based measures. The estimated MIC of EQ-5D-5L value set was 0.108 and 0.118 based on distribution and anchor-based approaches, respectively. The corresponding values for SF-6D were 0.048 and 0.064, respectively. Conclusions In patients with health complaints attributed to dental amalgam undergoing amalgam removal, both EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D showed reasonable concurrent and predictive validity and acceptable responsiveness. The EQ-5D-5L utility appears to be more responsive compared to SF-6D. Trial registration The research was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov., NCT01682278. Registered 10 September 2012, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01682278 .

Abstract Background Expansion of designated cycling networks increases cycling for transport that, in turn, increases physical activity, contributing to improvement in public health. This paper aims to determine whether cycle-network construction in a large city is cost-effective when compared to the status-quo. We developed a cycle-network investment model (CIM) for Oslo and explored its impact on overall health and wellbeing resulting from the increased physical activity. Methods First, we applied a regression technique on cycling data from 123 major European cities to model the effect of additional cycle-networks on the share of cyclists. Second, we used a Markov model to capture health benefits from increased cycling for people starting to ride cycle at the age of 30 over the next 25 years. All health gains were measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs were estimated in US dollars. Other data to populate the model were derived from a comprehensive literature search of epidemiological and economic evaluation studies. Uncertainty was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results Our regression analysis reveals that a 100 km new cycle network construction in Oslo city would increase cycling share by 3%. Under the base-case assumptions, where the benefits of the cycle-network investment relating to increased physical activity are sustained over 25 years, the predicted average increases in costs and QALYs per person are $416 and 0.019, respectively. Thus, the incremental costs are $22,350 per QALY gained. This is considered highly cost-effective in a Norwegian setting. Conclusions The results support the use of CIM as part of a public health program to improve physical activity and consequently avert morbidity and mortality. CIM is affordable and has a long-term effect on physical activity that in turn has a positive impact on health improvement.

Abstract Background Morbidity and mortality due to pregnancy and childbearing are high in developing countries. This study aims to estimate patient and health system costs of managing pregnancy and birth-related complications in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify costing studies published and unpublished, from January 2000 to May 2019. The search was done in Pubmed, EMBASE, Cinahl, and Web of Science databases and grey literature. The study was registered in PROSPERO with registration No. CRD42019119316. All costs were converted to 2018 US dollars using relevant Consumer Price Indices. Results Out of 1652 studies identified, 48 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The included studies were of moderate to high quality. Spontaneous vaginal delivery cost patients and health systems between USD 6–52 and USD 8–73, but cesarean section costs between USD 56–377 and USD 80–562, respectively. Patient and health system costs of abortion range between USD 11–66 and USD 40–298, while post-abortion care costs between USD 21–158 and USD 46–151, respectively. The patient and health system costs for managing a case of eclampsia range between USD 52–231 and USD 123–186, while for maternal hemorrhage they range between USD 65–196 and USD 30–127, respectively. Patient cost for caring low-birth weight babies ranges between USD 38–489 while the health system cost was estimated to be USD 514. Conclusion This is the first systematic review to compile comprehensive up-to-date patient and health system costs of managing pregnancy and birth-related complications in sub-Saharan Africa. It indicates that these costs are relatively high in this region and that patient costs were largely catastrophic relative to a 10 % of average national per capita income.

Abstract Background The randomized controlled trial (RCT) is considered the gold standard study design to inform decisions about the effectiveness of interventions. However, a common limitation is inadequate reporting of the applicability of the intervention and trial results for people who are “socially disadvantaged” and this can affect policy-makers’ decisions. We previously developed a framework for identifying health-equity-relevant trials, along with a reporting guideline for transparent reporting. In this study, we provide a descriptive assessment of health-equity considerations in 200 randomly sampled equity-relevant trials. Methods We developed a search strategy to identify health-equity-relevant trials published between 2013 and 2015. We randomly sorted the 4316 records identified by the search and screened studies until 100 individually randomized (RCTs) and 100 cluster randomized controlled trials (CRTs) were identified. We developed and pilot-tested a data extraction form based on our initial work, to inform the development of our reporting guideline for equity-relevant randomized trials. Results In total, 39 trials (20%) were conducted in a low- and middle-income country and 157 trials (79%) in a high-income country focused on socially disadvantaged populations (78% CRTs, 79% RCTs). Seventy-four trials (37%) reported a subgroup analysis across a population characteristic associated with disadvantage (25% CRT, 49% RCTs), with 19% of included studies reporting subgroup analyses across sex, 9% across race/ethnicity/culture, and 4% across socioeconomic status. No subgroup analyses were reported for place of residence, occupation, religion, education, or social capital. One hundred and forty-one trials (71%) discussed the applicability of their results to one or more socially disadvantaged populations (68% of CRT, 73% of RCT). Discussion In this set of trials, selected for their relevance to health equity, data that were disaggregated for socially disadvantaged populations were rarely reported. We found that even when the data are available, opportunities to analyze health-equity considerations are frequently missed. The recently published equity extension of the Consolidated Reporting Standards for Randomized Trials (CONSORT-Equity) may help improve delineation of hypotheses related to socially disadvantaged populations, and transparency and completeness of reporting of health-equity considerations in RCTs. This study can serve as a baseline assessment of the reporting of equity considerations.

There are many patients in general practice with health complaints that cannot be medically explained. Some of these patients attribute their health complaints to dental amalgam restorations. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of the removal of amalgam restorations in patients with medically unexplained physical symptoms (MUPS) attributed to amalgam fillings compared to usual care, based on a prospective cohort study in Norway. Costs were determined using a micro-costing approach at the individual level. Health outcomes were documented at baseline and approximately two years later for both the intervention and the usual care using EQ-5D-5L. Quality adjusted life year (QALY) was used as a main outcome measure. A decision analytical model was developed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of the intervention. Both probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of uncertainty in costs and effectiveness. In patients who attribute health complaints to dental amalgam restorations and fulfil the inclusion and exclusion criteria, amalgam removal is associated with modest increase in costs at societal level as well as improved health outcomes. In the base-case analysis, the mean incremental cost per patient in the amalgam group was NOK 19 416 compared to the MUPS group, while mean incremental QALY was 0.119 with a time horizon of two years. Thus, the incremental costs per QALY of the intervention was NOK 162 680, which is usually considered cost effective in Norway. The estimated incremental cost per QALY decreased with increasing time horizon, and amalgam removal was found to be cost saving over both 5 and 10 years. This study provides insight into the costs and health outcomes associated with the removal of amalgam restorations in patients who attribute health complaints to dental amalgam fillings, which are appropriate instruments to inform health care priorities.

Introduction Anaemia in pregnancy remains a critical global health problem, affecting 46% of pregnant women in Africa and 49% in Asia. Oral iron therapy requires extended adherence to achieve correction of anaemia and replenishment of iron stores. Ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) is a recently established intravenous iron formulation associated with substantial advantages in safety, speed of delivery and total dose deliverable in a single infusion. We aim to determine whether FCM given once during the second trimester of pregnancy compared with standard oral iron distributed through routine antenatal services is effective and safe for treatment of moderate to severe maternal anaemia in sub-Saharan Africa.Methods and analysis The randomized controlled trial of the effect of intravenous iron on anaemia in Malawian pregnant women (REVAMP) is a two-arm confirmatory individually randomised trial set in Blantyre and Zomba districts in Malawi. The trial will randomise 862 women in the second trimester of pregnancy with a capillary haemoglobin concentration below 100.0 g/L. The study comprises two arms: (a) intravenous FCM (20 mg/kg up to 1000 mg) given once at randomisation, and (b) standard of care oral iron (65 mg elemental iron two times per day) for 90 days (or the duration of pregnancy, whichever is shorter) provided according to local healthcare practices. Both arms receive sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine as intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy. The primary outcome is the prevalence of anaemia (Hb

Objectives Despite WHO guidelines recommending household contact investigation, and studies showing the impact of active screening, most tuberculosis (TB) programmes in resource-limited settings only carry out passive contact investigation. The cost of such strategies is often cited as barriers to their implementation. However, little data are available for the additional costs required to implement this strategy. We aimed to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of active contact investigation as compared with passive contact investigation in urban Pakistan.Methods We estimated the cost-effectiveness of ‘enhanced’ (passive with follow-up) and ‘active’ (household visit) contact investigations compared with standard ‘passive’ contact investigation from providers and the programme’s perspective using a simple decision tree. Costs were collected in Pakistan from a TB clinic performing passive contact investigation and from studies of active contact tracing interventions conducted. The effectiveness was based on the number of patients with TB identified among household contacts screened.Results The addition of enhanced contact investigation to the existing passive mode detected 3.8 times more cases of TB per index patient compared with passive contact investigation alone. The incremental cost was US$30 per index patient, which yielded an incremental cost of US$120 per incremental patient identified with TB. The active contact investigation was 1.5 times more effective than enhanced contact investigation with an incremental cost of US$238 per incremental patient with TB identified.Conclusion Our results show that enhanced and active approaches to contact investigation effectively identify additional patients with TB among household contacts at a relatively modest cost. These strategies can be added to the passive contact investigation in a high burden setting to find the people with TB who are missed and meet the End TB strategy goals.

Sammendrag Målet med denne artikkelen er å undersøke de viktigste argumentene for og imot diskontering av fremtidige helsegevinster. Et mer generelt spørsmål dreier seg om hvorvidt vi bør diskontere fremtidig velferd (eng. well-being). Vi begynner med en redegjørelse av hva diskontering er, og hvordan diskontering påvirker evaluering av helsetiltak. Deretter tar vi for oss de mest sentrale argumentene for og imot diskontering av fremtidige helsegevinster. Dette inkluderer velkjente argumenter som grensenytteargumentet, risikoargumentet, utsettelsesargumentet, konsistensargumentet og rene positive tidspreferanser. I tillegg drøfter vi to lite diskuterte argumenter, nemlig det instrumentelle argumentet og argumentet for fordelingsrettferdighet, samt en alternativ form for diskontering, nemlig diskontinuerlig diskontering. Vi konkluderer åpent og lar det være opp til deg som leser å reflektere videre omkring dette viktige spørsmålet.

Abstract Background In Asia, over 50% of patients with symptoms of tuberculosis (TB) access health care from private providers. These patients are usually not notified to the National TB Control Programs, which contributes to low notification rates in many countries. Methods From January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2012, Karachi’s Indus Hospital - a private sector partner to the National TB Programme - engaged 80 private family clinics in its catchment area in active case finding using health worker incentives to increase notification of TB disease. The costs incurred were estimated from the perspective of patients, health facility and the program providing TB services. A Markov decision tree model was developed to calculate the cost-effectiveness of the active case finding as compared to case detection through the routine passive TB centers. Pakistan has a large private health sector, which can be mobilized for TB screening using an incentivized active case finding strategy. Currently, TB screening is largely performed in specialist public TB centers through passive case finding. Active and passive case finding strategies are assumed to operate independently from each other. Results The incentive-based active case finding program costed USD 223 per patient treated. In contrast, the center based non-incentive arm was 23.4% cheaper, costing USD 171 per patient treated. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the incentive-based active case finding program was more effective and less expensive per DALY averted when compared to the baseline passive case finding as it averts an additional 0.01966 DALYs and saved 15.74 US$ per patient treated. Conclusion Both screening strategies appear to be cost-effective in an urban Pakistan context. Incentive driven active case findings of TB in the private sector costs less and averts more DALYs per health seeker than passive case finding, when both alternatives are compared to a common baseline situation of no screening.

Abstract Background Conflicting results exist on the added benefit of combining long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) with indoor residual spraying (IRS) to control malaria infection. The main study objective was to evaluate whether the combined use of LLINs and IRS with propoxur provides additional protection against Plasmodium falciparum and/or Plasmodium vivax among all age groups compared to LLINs or IRS alone. Methods This cluster-randomized, controlled trial was conducted in the Rift Valley area of Ethiopia from September 2014 to January 2017 (121 weeks); 44 villages were allocated to each of four study arms: LLIN + IRS, IRS, LLIN, and control. Each week, 6071 households with 34,548 persons were surveyed by active and passive case detection for clinical malaria. Primary endpoints were the incidence of clinical malaria and anaemia prevalence. Results During the study, 1183 malaria episodes were identified, of which 55.1% were P. falciparum and 25.3% were P. vivax, and 19.6% were mixed infections of P. falciparum and P. vivax. The overall malaria incidence was 16.5 per 1000 person-years of observation time (PYO), and similar in the four arms with 17.2 per 1000 PYO in the LLIN + IRS arm, 16.1 in LLIN, 17.0 in IRS, and 15.6 in the control arm. There was no significant difference in risk of anaemia among the trial arms. Conclusions The clinical malaria incidence and anaemia prevalence were similar in the four study groups. In areas with low malaria incidence, using LLINs and IRS in combination or alone may not eliminate malaria. Complementary interventions that reduce residual malaria transmission should be explored in addition to LLINs and IRS to further reduce malaria transmission in such settings. Trial registration PACTR201411000882128 (08 September 2014)

BackgroundThe provision of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) in children recently admitted with severe anemia reduces the risk of death and re-admissions in malaria endemic countries. The main objective of this trial was to identify the most effective method of delivering dihydroartemesinin-piperaquine to children recovering from severe anemia.MethodsThis was a 5-arm, cluster-randomized trial among under-5 children hospitalized with severe anemia at Zomba Central Hospital in Southern Malawi. Children were randomized to receive three day treatment doses of dihydroartemesinin-piperaquine monthly either; 1) in the community without a short text reminder; 2) in the community with a short message reminder; 3) in the community with a community health worker reminder; 4) at the facility without a short text reminder; or 5) at the facility with a short message reminder. The primary outcome measure was adherence to all treatment doses of dihydroartemesinin-piperaquine and this was assessed by pill-counts done by field workers during home visits. Poisson regression was utilized for analysis.ResultsBetween March 2016 and October 2018, 1460 clusters were randomized. A total of 667 children were screened and 375 from 329 clusters were eligible and enrolled from the hospital. Adherence was higher in all three community-based compared to the two facility-based delivery (156/221 [70·6%] vs. 78/150 [52·0%], IRR = 1·24,95%CI 1·06-1·44, p = 0·006). This was observed in both the SMS group (IRR = 1·41,1·21-1·64, pInterpretationCommunity-based delivery of dihydroartemesinin-piperaquine for post-discharge malaria chemoprevention in children recovering from severe anemia resulted in higher adherence compared to facility-based methods.Trial registrationNCT02721420; ClinicalTrials.gov.

Introduction Results-based financing (RBF) is being promoted to increase coverage and quality of maternal and perinatal healthcare in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of RBF is limited. We assessed the cost-effectiveness within the context of an RBF intervention, including performance-based financing and conditional cash transfers, in rural Malawi.Methods We used a decision tree model to estimate expected costs and effects of RBF compared with status quo care during single pregnancy episodes. RBF effects on maternal case fatality rates were modelled based on data from a maternal and perinatal programme evaluation in Zambia and Uganda. We obtained complementary epidemiological information from the published literature. Service utilisation rates for normal and complicated deliveries and associated costs of care were based on the RBF intervention in Malawi. Costs were estimated from a societal perspective. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted, death averted and life-year gained (LYG) and conducted sensitivity analyses to how robust results were to variations in key model parameters.Results Relative to status quo, RBF implied incremental costs of US$1122, US$26 220 and US$987 per additional DALY averted, death averted and LYG, respectively. The share of non-RBF facilities that provide quality care, life expectancy of mothers at time of delivery and the share of births in non-RBF facilities strongly influenced cost-effectiveness values. At a willingness to pay of US$1485 (3 times Malawi gross domestic product per capita) per DALY averted, RBF has a 77% probability of being cost-effective.Conclusions At high thresholds of wiliness-to-pay, RBF is a cost-effective intervention to improve quality of maternal and perinatal healthcare and outcomes, compared with the non-RBF based approach. More RBF cost-effectiveness analyses are needed in the SSA region to complement the few published studies and narrow the uncertainties surrounding cost-effectiveness estimates.

Abstract Background Severe malarial anaemia is one of the leading causes of paediatric hospital admissions in Malawi. Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) is the intermittent administration of full treatment courses of antimalarial to children recovering from severe anaemia and findings suggest that this intervention significantly reduces readmissions and deaths in these children. Community delivery of health interventions utilizing community health workers (CHWs) has been successful in some programmes and not very positive in others. In Malawi, there is an on-going cluster randomised trial that aims to find the optimum strategy for delivery of dihydroartemesinin-piperaquine (DHP) for PMC in children with severe anaemia. Our qualitative study aimed to explore the feasibility of utilizing CHWs also known as health surveillance assistants (HSAs) to remind caregivers to administer PMC medication in the existing Malawian health system. Methods Between December 2016 and March 2018, 20 individual in-depth-interviews (IDIs) and 2 focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with 39 HSAs who had the responsibility of conducting home visits to remind caregivers of children who were prescribed PMC medication in the trial. All interviews were conducted in the local language, transcribed verbatim, and translated into English. The transcripts were uploaded to NVIVO 11 and analysed using the thematic framework analysis method. Results Although intrinsic motivation was reportedly high, adherence to the required number of home visits was very poor with only 10 HSAs reporting full adherence. Positive factors for adherence were the knowledge and perception of the effectiveness of PMC and the recognition from the community as well as health system. Poor training, lack of supervision, high workload, as well as technical and structural difficulties; were reported barriers to adherence by the HSAs. Conclusions Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention with DHP is perceived as a positive approach to manage children recovering from severe anaemia by HSAs in Malawi. However, adherence to home visit reminders was very poor and the involvement of HSAs in a scale up of this intervention may pose a challenge in the existing Malawian health system. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02721420. The trial was registered on 26 March 2016.

Abstract Background Children hospitalised with severe anaemia in malaria endemic areas in Africa are at high risk of readmission or death within 6 months post-discharge. Currently, no strategy specifically addresses this period. In Malawi, 3 months of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) with monthly treatment courses of artemether-lumefantrine given at discharge and at 1 and 2 months prevented 30% of all-cause readmissions by 6 months post-discharge. Another efficacy trial is needed before a policy of malaria chemoprevention can be considered for the post-discharge management of severe anaemia in children under 5 years of age living in malaria endemic areas. Objective We aim to determine if 3 months of PMC with monthly 3-day treatment courses of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine is safe and superior to a single 3-day treatment course with artemether-lumefantrine provided as part of standard in-hospital care in reducing all-cause readmissions and deaths (composite primary endpoint) by 6 months in the post-discharge management of children less than 5 years of age admitted with severe anaemia of any or undetermined cause. Methods/design This is a multi-centre, two-arm, placebo-controlled, individually randomised trial in children under 5 years of age recently discharged following management for severe anaemia. Children in both arms will receive standard in-hospital care for severe anaemia and a 3-day course of artemether-lumefantrine at discharge. At 2 weeks after discharge, surviving children will be randomised to receive either 3-day courses of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine at 2, 6 and 10 weeks or an identical placebo and followed for 26 weeks through passive case detection. The trial will be conducted in hospitals in malaria endemic areas in Kenya and Uganda. The study is designed to detect a 25% reduction in the incidence of all-cause readmissions or death (composite primary outcome) from 1152 to 864 per 1000 child years (power 80%, α = 0.05) and requires 520 children per arm (1040 total children). Results Participant recruitment started in May 2016 and is ongoing. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02671175. Registered on 28 January 2016.

Abstract Background The effectiveness of long lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), for malaria prevention, have been established in several studies. However, the available evidence about the additional resources required for a combined implementation (LLIN + IRS) with respect to the added protection afforded is limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of combined implementation of LLINs and IRS, compared with LLINs alone, IRS alone, and routine practice in Ethiopia. Methods The study was performed alongside a cluster randomized controlled trial of malaria prevention conducted in Adami Tullu district, in Ethiopia, from 2014 to 2016. In addition, literature-based cost-effectiveness analysis—using effectiveness information from a systematic review of published articles was conducted. Costing of the interventions were done from the providers’ perspective. The health-effect was measured using disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and combined with cost information using a Markov life-cycle model. In the base-case analysis, health-effects were based on the current trial, and in addition, a scenario analysis was performed based on a literature survey. Results The current trial-based analysis showed that routine practice is not less effective and therefore dominates both the combined intervention and singleton intervention due to lower costs. The literature-based analysis had shown that combined intervention had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD 1403 per DALY averted, and USD 207 per DALY averted was estimated for LLIN alone. In order for the ICER for the combined intervention to be within a range of 1 GDP per capita per DALY averted, the annual malaria incidence in the area should be at least 13%, and the protective-effectiveness of combined implementation should be at least 53%. Conclusions Based on the current trial-based analysis, LLINs and IRS are not cost-effective compared to routine practice. However, based on the literature-based analysis, LLIN alone is likely to be cost-effective compared to 3 times GDP per capita per DALY averted. The annual malaria probability and protective-effectiveness of combined intervention are key determinants of the cost-effectiveness of the interventions. Trial registration PACTR201411000882128 (Registered 8 September 2014). http://www.pactr.org/ATMWeb/appmanager/atm/atmregistry?dar=true&tNo=PACTR201411000882128

Abstract Background Children initially hospitalized with severe anaemia in Africa are at high risk of readmission or death within 6 months after discharge. No intervention strategy specifically protects children during the post-discharge period. Recent evidence from Malawi shows that 3 months of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) with monthly treatment with artemether-lumefantrine in children with severe malarial anaemia prevented 31% of deaths and readmissions. While a confirmatory multi-centre trial for PMC with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine is on going in Kenya and Uganda, there is a need to design and evaluate an effective delivery strategy for this promising intervention. Methods This is a cluster-randomized trial with 5 arms, each representing a unique PMC delivery strategy. Convalescent children aged less than 5 years and weighing more than 5 kg admitted with severe anaemia and clinically stable are included. All eligible children will receive dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine at 2, 6 and 10 weeks after discharge either: 1) in the community without an SMS reminder; 2) in the community with an SMS reminder; 3) in the community with a community health worker reminder; 4) at the hospital with an SMS reminder; or 5) at the hospital without an SMS reminder. For community-based strategies (1, 2 and 3), mothers will be given all the PMC doses at the time of discharge while for hospital-based strategies (4 and 5) mothers will be required to visit the hospital each month. Each arm will consist of 25 clusters with an average of 3 children per cluster giving approximately 75 children and will be followed up for 15 weeks. The primary outcome measure is uptake of complete courses of PMC drugs. Discussion The proposed study will help to identify the most effective, cost-effective, acceptable and feasible strategy for delivering malaria chemoprevention for post-discharge management of severe anaemia in under-five children in the Malawian context. This information is important for policy decision in the quest for new strategies for malaria control in children in similar contexts. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02721420. Protocol registered on 29 March 2016.The study was not retrospectively registered but there was a delay between date of submission and the date it first became available on the registry.

Abstract Background In malaria endemic countries of sub-Saharan Africa, many children develop severe anaemia due to previous and current malaria infections. After blood transfusions and antimalarial treatment at the hospital they are usually discharged without any follow-up. In the post-discharge period, these children may contract new malaria infections and develop rebound severe anaemia. A randomised placebo-controlled trial in Malawi showed 31% reduction in malaria- and anaemia-related deaths or hospital readmissions among children under 5 years of age given antimalarial drugs for 3 months post-discharge. Thus, post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) may provide substantial protection against malaria and anaemia in young children living in areas of high malaria transmission. A delivery implementation trial is currently being conducted in Malawi to determine the optimal strategy for PMC delivery. In the trial, PMC is delivered through community- or facility-based methods with or without the use of reminders via phone text message or visit from a Health Surveillance Assistant. This paper describes the acceptance of PMC among caregivers. Methods From October to December 2016, 30 in-depth interviews and 5 focus group discussions were conducted with caregivers of children who recently completed the last treatment course in the trial. Views on the feasibility of various delivery methods and reminder strategies were collected. The interviews were transcribed verbatim, translated to English, and coded using the software programme NVivo. Results Community-based delivery was perceived as more favourable than facility-based delivery due to easy home access to drugs and fewer financial concerns. Many caregivers reported lack of visits from Health Surveillance Assistants and preferred text message reminders sent directly to their phones rather than waiting on these visits. Positive attitudes towards active use of health cards for remembering treatment dates were especially evident. Additionally, caregivers shared positive experiences from participation in the programme and described dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine as a safe and effective antimalarial drug that improved the health and well-being of their children. Conclusions Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention given to children under the age of 5 previously treated for severe anaemia is highly accepted among caregivers. Caregivers prefer community-based delivery with use of health cards as their primary tool of reference. Trial registration NCT02721420 (February 13, 2016).

Abstract Background Payment for performance (P4P) strategies, which provide financial incentives to health workers and/or facilities for reaching pre-defined performance targets, can improve healthcare utilisation and quality. P4P may also reduce inequalities in healthcare use and access by enhancing universal access to care, for example, through reducing the financial barriers to accessing care. However, P4P may also enhance inequalities in healthcare if providers cherry-pick the easier-to-reach patients to meet their performance targets. In this study, we examine the heterogeneity of P4P effects on service utilisation across population subgroups and its implications for inequalities in Tanzania. Methods We used household data from an evaluation of a P4P programme in Tanzania. We surveyed about 3000 households with women who delivered in the last 12 months prior to the interview from seven intervention and four comparison districts in January 2012 and a similar number of households in 13 months later. The household data were used to generate the population subgroups and to measure the incentivised service utilisation outcomes. We focused on two outcomes that improved significantly under the P4P, i.e. institutional delivery rate and the uptake of antimalarials for pregnant women. We used a difference-in-differences linear regression model to estimate the effect of P4P on utilisation outcomes across the different population subgroups. Results P4P led to a significant increase in the rate of institutional deliveries among women in poorest and in middle wealth status households, but not among women in least poor households. However, the differential effect was marginally greater among women in the middle wealth households compared to women in the least poor households (p = 0.094). The effect of P4P on institutional deliveries was also significantly higher among women in rural districts compared to women in urban districts (p = 0.028 for differential effect), and among uninsured women than insured women (p = 0.001 for differential effect). The effect of P4P on the uptake of antimalarials was equally distributed across population subgroups. Conclusion P4P can enhance equitable healthcare access and use especially when the demand-side barriers to access care such as user fees associated with drug purchase due to stock-outs have been reduced.

Abstract Background Early marriages, pregnancies and births are the major cause of school drop-out among adolescent girls in sub-Saharan Africa. Birth complications are also one of the leading causes of death among adolescent girls. This paper outlines a protocol for a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) of a comprehensive adolescent pregnancy prevention program in Zambia. It aims to estimate the expected costs, monetary and non-monetary benefits associated with health-related and non-health outcomes, as well as their distribution across populations with different standards of living. Methods The study will be conducted alongside a cluster-randomized controlled trial, which is testing the hypothesis that economic support with or without community dialogue is an effective strategy for reducing adolescent childbearing rates. The CBA will estimate net benefits by comparing total costs with monetary benefits of health-related and non-health outcomes for each intervention package. The ECEA will estimate the costs of the intervention packages per unit health and non-health gain stratified by the standards of living. Cost data include program implementation costs, healthcare costs (i.e. costs associated with adolescent pregnancy and birth complications such as low birth weight, pre-term birth, eclampsia, medical abortion procedures and post-abortion complications) and costs of education and participation in community and youth club meetings. Monetary benefits are returns to education and averted healthcare costs. For the ECEA, health gains include reduced rate of adolescent childbirths and non-health gains include averted out-of-pocket expenditure and financial risk protection. The economic evaluations will be conducted from program and societal perspectives. Discussion While the planned intervention is both comprehensive and expensive, it has the potential to produce substantial short-term and long-term health and non-health benefits. These benefits should be considered seriously when evaluating whether such a program can justify the required investments in a setting with scarce resources. The economic evaluations outlined in this paper will generate valuable information that can be used to guide large-scale implementation of programs to address the problem of the high prevalence of adolescent childbirth and school drop-outs in similar settings. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02709967. Registered on 2 March 2016. ISRCTN, ISRCTN12727868. Registered on 4 March 2016.

Abstract Background Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination may have nonspecific effects, i.e., effects on childhood morbidity and mortality that go beyond its effect on the risk of childhood tuberculosis (TB). Though the available scientific literature is mostly from observational studies, and is fraught with controversy, BCG vaccination at birth may protect infants in high-mortality populations against serious infections other than TB. Yet, other studies indicate that giving BCG later in infancy may modify immune responses to non-TB antigens and potentially enhance immunity, potentially also against tuberculosis (TB). It is unclear whether BCG vaccination very early in life offers adequate protection against TB and other infections among HIV-1-exposed children because even those who remain uninfected with HIV-1 show signs of impaired immunocompetence early in infancy. This study will compare BCG vaccination at birth with BCG vaccination at 14 weeks of age in HIV-1-exposed infants. Methods This is an individually randomized controlled trial in 2200 HIV-1-exposed infants. The intervention is BCG vaccination within 24 h of birth while the comparator is BCG given at 14 weeks of age. The study co-primary outcomes are severe illness in the first 14 weeks of life, and production of tumor necrosis factor, interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6 and interferon-γ in response to mycobacterial and nonmycobacterial antigens. The study is being conducted in three health centers in Uganda. Discussion A well-timed BCG vaccination could have important nonspecific effects in HIV-1-exposed infants. This trial could inform the development of appropriate timing of BCG vaccination for HIV-1-exposed infants. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT02606526. Registered on 12 November 2015.

In the original publication of this article [1], an author’s name needs to be revised from Jacob Creswel to Jacob Creswell.

BACKGROUND:Tobacco consumption contributes significantly to the global burden of disease. The prevalence of smoking is estimated to be increasing in many low-income countries, including Tanzania, especially among women and youth. Even so, the implementation of tobacco control measures has been discouraging in the country. Efforts to foster investment in tobacco control are hindered by lack of evidence on what works and at what cost. AIMS:We aim to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of population-based tobacco control strategies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Tanzania. MATERIALS AND METHODS:A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using an Excel-based Markov model, from a governmental perspective. We employed an ingredient approach and step-down methodologies in the costing exercise following a government perspective. Epidemiological data and efficacy inputs were derived from the literature. We used disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as the outcome measure. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out with Ersatz to incorporate uncertainties in the model parameters. RESULTS:Our model results showed that all five tobacco control strategies were very cost-effective since they fell below the ceiling ratio of one GDP per capita suggested by the WHO. Increase in tobacco taxes was the most cost-effective strategy, while a workplace smoking ban was the least cost-effective option, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$5 and US$267, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Even though all five interventions are deemed very cost-effective in the prevention of CVD in Tanzania, more research on budget impact analysis is required to further assess the government's ability to implement these interventions.

Results-based financing (RBF) schemes-including performance based financing (PBF) and conditional cash transfers (CCT)-are increasingly being used to encourage use and improve quality of institutional health care for pregnant women in order to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality in low-income countries. While there is emerging evidence that RBF can increase service use and quality, little is known on the impact of RBF on costs and time to seek care for obstetric complications, although the two represent important dimensions of access. We conducted this study to fill the existing gap in knowledge by investigating the impact of RBF (PBF+CCT) on household costs and time to seek care for obstetric complications in four districts in Malawi. The analysis included data on 2,219 women with obstetric complications from three waves of a population-based survey conducted at baseline in 2013 and repeated in 2014(midline) and 2015(endline). Using a before and after approach with controls, we applied generalized linear models to study the association between RBF and household costs and time to seek care. Results indicated that receipt of RBF was associated with a significant reduction in the expected mean time to seek care for women experiencing an obstetric complication. Relative to non-RBF, time to seek care in RBF areas decreased by 27.3% (95%CI: 28.4-25.9) at midline and 34.2% (95%CI: 37.8-30.4) at endline. No substantial change in household costs was observed. We conclude that the reduced time to seek care is a manifestation of RBF induced quality improvements, prompting faster decisions on care seeking at household level. Our results suggest RBF may contribute to timely emergency care seeking and thus ultimately reduce maternal and neonatal mortality in beneficiary populations.

BACKGROUND:Child health interventions were drastically scaled up in the period leading up to 2015 as countries aimed at meeting the 2015 target of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDGs were defined in terms of achieving improvements in average health. Significant improvements in average child health are documented, but evidence also points to rising inequality. It is important to investigate factors that drive the increasing disparities in order to inform the post-2015 development agenda of reducing inequality, as captured in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We investigated changes in socioeconomic inequality in stunting and fever in Zambia in 2007 and 2014. Unlike the huge literature that seeks to quantify the contribution of different determinants on the observed inequality at any given time, we quantify determinants of changes in inequality. METHODS:Data from the 2007 and 2014 waves of the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) were utilized. Our sample consisted of children aged 0-5 years (n = 5,616 in 2007 and n = 12,714 in 2014). We employed multilevel models to assess the determinants of stunting and fever, which are two important child health indicators. The concentration index (CI) was used to measure the magnitude of inequality. Changes in inequality of stunting and fever were investigated using Oaxaca-type decomposition of the CI. In this approach, the change in the CI for stunting/fever is decomposed into changes in CI for each determinant and changes in the effect-measured as an elasticity-of each determinant on stunting/fever. RESULTS:While average rates of stunting reduced in 2014 socioeconomic inequality in stunting increased significantly. Inequality in fever incidence also increased significantly, but average rates of fever did not reduce. The increase in the inequality (CI) of determinants accounted for the largest part (42.5%) of the increase in inequality of stunting, while the increase in the effect of determinants explained 35% of the increase. The determinants with the greatest total contribution (change in CI plus change in effect) to the increase in inequality of stunting were mother's height and weight, wealth, birth order, facility delivery, duration of breastfeeding, and maternal education. For fever, almost all (86%) the increase in inequality was accounted for by the increase in the effect of determinants of fever, while the distribution of determinants mattered less. The determinants with the greatest total contribution to the increase in inequality of fever were wealth, maternal education, birth order and breastfeeding duration. In the multilevel model, we found that the likelihood of a child being stunted or experiencing fever depends on the community in which they live. CONCLUSIONS:To curb the increase in inequality of stunting and fever, policy may focus on improving levels of, and reducing inequality in, access to facility deliveries, maternal nutrition (which may be related to maternal weight and height), complementary feeding (for breastfed children), wealth, maternal education, and child care (related to birth order effects). Improving overall levels of these determinants contribute to the persistence of inequality if these determinants are unequally concentrated on the well off to begin with.

While recognizing the recent remarkable achievement in the global malaria reduction, the disease remains a challenge to the malaria endemic countries in Africa. Beyond the huge health consequence of malaria, policymakers need to be informed about the economic burden of the disease to the households. However, evidence on the economic burden of malaria in Ethiopia is scanty. The aims of this study were to estimate the economic burden of malaria episode and to identify predictors of cost variability to the rural households.A prospective costing approach from a household perspective was employed. A total of 190 malaria patients were enrolled to the study from three health centers and nine health posts in Adami Tullu district in south-central Ethiopia, in 2015. Primary data were collected on expenditures due to malaria, forgone working days because of illness, socioeconomic and demographic situation, and households' assets. Quantile regression was applied to predict factors associated with the cost variation. Socioeconomic related inequality was measured using concentration index and concentration curve.The median cost of malaria per episode to the household was USD 5.06 (IQR: 2.98-8.10). The direct cost accounted for 39%, while the indirect counterpart accounted for 61%. The history of malaria in the last six months and the level of the facility visited in the health system predominantly influenced the direct cost. The indirect cost was mainly influenced by the availability of antimalarial drugs in the health facility. The concentration curve and the concentration index for direct cost indicate significant pro-rich inequality. Plasmodium falciparum is significantly more costly for households compared to Plasmodium vivax.The economic burden of malaria to the rural households in Ethiopia was substantial-mainly to the poor-indicating that reducing malaria burden could contribute to the poverty reduction as well.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the incremental costs, effects and cost-effectiveness of zinc used as adjunct therapy to standard treatment of acute childhood diarrhoea, including dysentery, and to reassess the cost-effectiveness of standard case management with oral rehydration salt (ORS). METHODS: A decision tree was used to model expected clinical outcomes and expected costs under four alternative treatment strategies. The best available epidemiological, clinical and economic evidence was used in the calculations, and the United Republic of Tanzania was the reference setting. Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a Monte-Carlo simulation technique and the potential impacts of uncertainty in single parameters were explored in one-way sensitivity analyses. FINDINGS: ORS was found to be less cost-effective than previously thought. The use of zinc as adjunct therapy significantly improved the cost-effectiveness of standard management of diarrhoea for dysenteric as well as non-dysenteric illness. The results were particularly sensitive to mortality rates in non-dysenteric diarrhoea, but the alternative interventions can be defined as highly cost-effective even in pessimistic scenarios. CONCLUSION: There is sufficient evidence to recommend the inclusion of zinc into standard case management of both dysenteric and non-dysenteric acute diarrhoea. A direct transfer of our findings from the United Republic of Tanzania to other settings is not justified, but there are no indications of large geographical differences in the efficacy of zinc. It is therefore plausible that our findings are also applicable to other developing countries.

Community based breastfeeding promotion programmes have been shown to be effective in increasing breastfeeding prevalence. However, there is limited data on the cost-effectiveness of these programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper evaluates the cost-effectiveness of a breastfeeding promotion intervention targeting mothers and their 0 to 6 month old children.Data were obtained from a community randomized trial conducted in Uganda between 2006-2008, and supplemented with evidence from several studies in sub-Saharan Africa. In the trial, peer counselling was offered to women in intervention clusters. In the control and intervention clusters, women could access standard health facility breastfeeding promotion services (HFP). Thus, two methods of breastfeeding promotion were compared: community based peer counselling (in addition to HFP) and standard HFP alone. A Markov model was used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios between the two strategies. The model estimated changes in breastfeeding prevalence and disability adjusted life years. Costs were estimated from a provider perspective. Uncertainty around the results was characterized using one-way sensitivity analyses and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Peer counselling more than doubled the breastfeeding prevalence as reported by mothers, but there was no observable impact on diarrhoea prevalence. Estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were US$68 per month of exclusive or predominant breastfeeding and U$11,353 per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted. The findings were robust to parameter variations in the sensitivity analyses.Our strategy to promote community based peer counselling is unlikely to be cost-effective in reducing diarrhoea prevalence and mortality in Uganda, because its cost per DALY averted far exceeds the commonly assumed willingness-to-pay threshold of three times Uganda's GDP per capita (US$1653). However, since the intervention significantly increases prevalence of exclusive or predominant breastfeeding, it could be adopted in Uganda if benefits other than reducing the occurrence of diarrhoea are believed to be important.

BackgroundInsufficient access to essential medicines is a major health challenge in developing countries. Despite the importance of Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine Lists in facilitating access to medicines, little is known about how they are updated. This study aims to describe the process of updating the Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine List in Tanzania and further examines the criteria and the underlying evidence used in decision-making.MethodsThis is a qualitative study in which data were collected by in-depth interviews and document reviews. Interviews were conducted with 18 key informants who were involved in updating the Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine List. We used a thematic content approach to analyse the data.FindingsThe Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine List was updated by committees of experts who were recruited mostly from referral hospitals and the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Efficacy, safety, availability and affordability were the most frequently utilised criteria in decision-making, although these were largely based on experience rather than evidence. In addition, recommendations from international guidelines and medicine promotions also influenced decision-making. Cost-effectiveness, despite being an important criterion for formulary decisions, was not utilised.ConclusionsRecent decisions about the selection of essential medicines in Tanzania were made by committees of experts who largely used experience and discretionary judgement, leaving evidence with only a limited role in decision-making process. There may be several reasons for the current limited use of evidence in decision-making, but one hypothesis that remains to be explored is whether training experts in evidence-based decision-making would lead to a better and more explicit use of evidence.

Community-based peer support has been shown to be effective in improving exclusive breastfeeding rates in a variety of settings.We conducted a cost analysis of a community cluster randomised-controlled trial (Promise-EBF), aimed at promoting exclusive infant feeding in three sites in South Africa. The costs were considered from the perspective of health service providers. Peer supporters in this trial visited women to support exclusive infant feeding, once antenatally and four times postpartum.The total economic cost of the Promise-EBF intervention was US$393 656, with average costs per woman and per visit of US$228 and US$52, respectively. The average costs per woman and visit in an operational 'non research' scenario were US$137 and US$32 per woman and visit, respectively. Investing in the promotion of exclusive infant feeding requires substantial financial commitment from policy makers. Extending the tasks of multi-skilled community health workers (CHWs) to include promoting exclusive infant feeding is a potential option for reducing these costs. In order to avoid efficiency losses, we recommend that the time requirements for delivering the promotion of exclusive infant feeding are considered when integrating it within the existing activities of CHWs.This paper focuses on interventions for exclusive infant feeding, but its findings more generally illustrate the importance of documenting and quantifying factors that affect the feasibility and sustainability of community-based interventions, which are receiving increased focus in low income settings.