Search

The UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is a new traceable hierarchy of three model configurations at 1, 1/4 and 1/12° based on version 4.0.4 of the NEMO code. GOSI9 has been developed as part of the UK's Joint Marine Modelling Programme (JMMP), a partnership between the Met Office, the National Oceanography Centre, the British Antarctic Survey, and the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling. Following a seamless approach, it will be used for a variety of applications across a wide range of spatial and temporal resolutions: short-range coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, ocean forecasts, seasonal and decadal forecasts, and climate and Earth system modelling. The GOSI9 configurations are described in detail with a special focus on the updates since the previous version (GO6-GSI8). Results from 30-year ocean–ice integrations forced by CORE2 fluxes are presented for the three resolutions, and the impacts of the updates are assessed using the 1/4° integrations. The upgrade to NEMO 4.0.4 includes a new sea ice model SI3 (Sea Ice modelling Integrated Initiative) and faster integration achieved through the use of partially implicit schemes that allow a significant increase in the length of the time step. The quality of the simulations is generally improved compared to GO6-GSI8. The temperature and salinity drifts are largely reduced thanks to the upgrade to NEMO 4.0.4 and the adoption of fourth-order horizontal and vertical advections helping to reduce the numerical mixing. To improve the representation of the Southern Ocean, a scale-aware form of the Gent–McWilliams parameterization and the application of a partial-slip lateral boundary condition on momentum in the Southern Ocean have been added, resulting in a stronger and more realistic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport and a reduction in the temperature and salinity biases along the shelf of Antarctica. In the Arctic, the representation of sea ice is improved, leading to a reduction in surface temperature and salinity biases. In particular, the excessive and unrealistic Arctic summer sea ice melt in GO6-GSI8 is significantly improved in GOSI9 and can be attributed to the change in the sea ice model and to the higher albedos that increased sea ice thickness.

We review how the international modelling community, encompassing integrated assessment models, global and regional Earth system and climate models, and impact models, has worked together over the past few decades to advance understanding of Earth system change and its impacts on society and the environment and thereby support international climate policy. We go on to recommend a number of priority research areas for the coming decade, a timescale that encompasses a number of newly starting international modelling activities, as well as the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) and the second UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these priority areas will significantly advance our understanding of Earth system change and its impacts, increasing the quality and utility of science support to climate policy. We emphasize the need for continued improvement in our understanding of, and ability to simulate, the coupled Earth system and the impacts of Earth system change. There is an urgent need to investigate plausible pathways and emission scenarios that realize the Paris climate targets – for example, pathways that overshoot 1.5 or 2 °C global warming, before returning to these levels at some later date. Earth system models need to be capable of thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots – in particular, the efficacy of mitigation measures, such as negative CO2 emissions, in reducing atmospheric CO2 and driving global cooling. An improved assessment of the long-term consequences of stabilizing climate at 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures is also required. We recommend Earth system models run overshoot scenarios in CO2-emission mode to more fully represent coupled climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks and, wherever possible, interactively simulate other key Earth system phenomena at risk of rapid change during overshoot. Regional downscaling and impact models should use forcing data from these simulations, so impact and regional climate projections cover a more complete range of potential responses to a warming overshoot. An accurate simulation of the observed, historical record remains a fundamental requirement of models, as does accurate simulation of key metrics, such as the effective climate sensitivity and the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions. For adaptation, a key demand is improved guidance on potential changes in climate extremes and the modes of variability these extremes develop within. Such improvements will most likely be realized through a combination of increased model resolution, improvement of key model parameterizations, and enhanced representation of important Earth system processes, combined with targeted use of new artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques. We propose a deeper collaboration across such efforts over the coming decade. With respect to sampling future uncertainty, increased collaboration between approaches that emphasize large model ensembles and those focussed on statistical emulation is required. We recommend an increased focus on high-impact–low-likelihood (HILL) outcomes – in particular, the risk and consequences of exceeding critical tipping points during a warming overshoot and the potential impacts arising from this. For a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of Earth system change, including impacts arising directly as a result of climate mitigation actions, it is important that spatially detailed, disaggregated information used to generate future scenarios in integrated assessment models be available for use in impact models. Conversely, there is a need to develop methods that enable potential societal responses to projected Earth system change to be incorporated into scenario development. The new models, simulations, data, and scientific advances proposed in this article will not be possible without long-term development and maintenance of a robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This system must be easily accessible and useable by modelling communities across the world, allowing the global research community to be fully engaged in developing and delivering new scientific knowledge to support international climate policy.

We present an overview of the UK's Global Sea Ice model configuration version 9 (GSI9), the sea ice component of the latest Met Office Global Coupled model, GC5. The GC5 configuration will, amongst other uses, form the physical basis for the HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3) climate model and UKESM2 (UK Earth System Model version 2) Earth system model that will provide the Met Office Hadley Centre/UK model contributions to CMIP7 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7). Although UK ocean model configurations have been developed for many years around the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean modelling framework, the GSI9 configuration is the first UK sea ice model configuration to use the new native NEMO sea ice model, SI3 (Sea Ice modelling Integrated Initiative). This replaces the CICE (Community Ice CodE) model used in previous configuration versions. In this paper we document the physical and technical options used within the GSI9 sea ice configuration. We provide details of the implementation of SI3 into the Met Office coupled model and the adaptations required to work with our “conductivity coupling” approach and provide a thorough description of the GC5 coupling methodology. A brief evaluation of sea ice simulated by the GC5 model is included, with results compared to observational references and a previous Global Coupled model version (GC3.1) used for CMIP6, to demonstrate the scientific credibility of the results.

Introduction: We aimed to demonstrate non-invasive measurements of regional oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) from quantitative BOLD MRI modeling at baseline and after pharmacological vasodilation. We hypothesized that OEF decreases in response to vasodilation with acetazolamide (ACZ) in healthy conditions, reflecting compensation in regions with increased cerebral blood flow (CBF), while cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2) remained unchanged. We also aimed to assess the relationship between OEF and perfusion in the default mode network (DMN) regions that have shown associations with vascular risk factors and cerebrovascular reactivity in different neurological conditions. Material and methods: Eight healthy subjects (47 ± 13 years, 6 female) were scanned on a 3 T scanner with a 32-channel head coil before and after administration of 15 mg/kg ACZ as a pharmacological vasodilator. The MR imaging acquisition protocols included: 1) A Gradient Echo Slice Excitation Profile Imaging Asymmetric Spin Echo scan to quantify OEF, deoxygenated blood volume, and reversible transverse relaxation rate (R2 ') and 2) a multi-post labeling delay arterial spin labeling scan to measure CBF. To assess changes in each parameter due to vasodilation, two-way t-tests were performed for all pairs (baseline versus vasodilation) in the DMN brain regions with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. The relationships between CBF versus OEF and CBF versus R2' were analyzed and compared across DMN regions using linear, mixed-effect models. Results: During vasodilation, CBF significantly increased in the medial frontal cortex (P=0.004), posterior cingulate gyrus (pCG) (P=0.004), precuneus cortex (PCun) (P=0.004), and occipital pole (P=0.001). Concurrently, a significant decrease in OEF was observed only in the pCG (8.8%, P=0.003) and PCun (8.7%,P=0.001). CMRO2 showed a trend of increased values after vasodilation, but these differences were not significant after correction for multiple comparisons. Although R2' showed a slightly decreasing trend, no statistically significant changes were found in any regions in response to ACZ. The CBF response to ACZ exhibited a stronger negative correlation with OEF (β=-0.104±0.027; t=-3.852,P

Abstract The UK contribution to the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP), part of the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), is described. The lower atmosphere and ocean resolution configuration of the latest Hadley Centre global environmental model, HadGEM3‐GC3.1, is used to create simulations driven either with historical changes in anthropogenic well‐mixed greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, or natural climate factors. Global mean near‐surface air temperatures from the HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL simulations are consistent with CMIP6 model ensembles for the equivalent experiments. While the HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL simulations with anthropogenic and natural forcing factors capture the overall observed warming, the lack of marked simulated warming until the 1990s is diagnosed as due to aerosol cooling mostly offsetting the well‐mixed greenhouse gas warming until then. The model has unusual temperature variability over the Southern Ocean related to occasional deep convection bringing heat to the surface. This is most prominent in the model's aerosol only simulations, which have the curious feature of warming in the high southern latitudes, while the rest of the globe cools, a behavior not seen in other CMIP6 models. This has implications for studies that assume model responses, from different climate drivers, can be linearly combined. While DAMIP was predominantly designed for detection and attribution studies, the experiments are also very valuable for understanding how different climate drivers influence a model, and thus for interpretating the responses of combined anthropogenic and natural driven simulations. We recommend institutions provide model simulations for the high priority DAMIP experiments.

Abstract Multiple expressions of climate change, in particular warming‐induced reductions in the type, extent and thickness of sea ice, are opening access and providing new viable development opportunities in high‐latitude regions. Coastal margins are facing these challenges, but the vulnerability of species and ecosystems to the effects of fuel contamination associated with increased maritime traffic is largely unknown. Here, we show that low concentrations of the water‐accommodated fraction of marine fuel oil, representative of a dilute fuel oil spill, can alter functionally important aspects of the behaviour of sediment‐dwelling invertebrates. We find that the response to contamination is species specific, but that the range in response among individuals is modified by increasing fuel concentrations. Our study provides evidence that species responses to novel and/or unprecedented levels of anthropogenic activity associated with the opening up of high‐latitude regions can have substantive ecological effects, even when human impacts are at, or below, commonly accepted safe thresholds. These secondary responses are often overlooked in broad‐scale environmental assessments and marine planning yet, critically, they may act as an early warning signal for impending and more pronounced ecological transitions.

In this research, resorbable phosphate-based glass (PBG) compositions were developed using varying modifier oxides including iron (Fe2O3), copper (CuO), and manganese (MnO2), and then processed via a rapid single-stage flame spheroidisation process to manufacture dense (i.e., solid) and highly porous microspheres. Solid (63–200 µm) and porous (100–200 µm) microspheres were produced and characterised via SEM, XRD, and EDX to investigate their surface topography, structural properties, and elemental distribution. Complementary NMR investigations revealed the formation of Q2, Q1, and Q0 phosphate species within the porous and solid microspheres, and degradation studies performed to evaluate mass loss, particle size, and pH changes over 28 days showed no significant differences among the microspheres (63–71 µm) investigated. The microspheres produced were then investigated using clinical (1.5 T) and preclinical (7 T) MRI systems to determine the R1 and R2 relaxation rates. Among the compositions investigated, manganese-based porous and solid microspheres revealed enhanced levels of R2 (9.7–10.5 s−1 for 1.5 T; 17.1–18.9 s−1 for 7 T) and R1 (3.4–3.9 s−1 for 1.5 T; 2.2–2.3 s−1 for 7 T) when compared to the copper and iron-based microsphere samples. This was suggested to be due to paramagnetic ions present in the Mn-based microspheres. It is also suggested that the porosity in the resorbable PBG porous microspheres could be further explored for loading with drugs or other biologics. This would further advance these materials as MRI theranostic agents and generate new opportunities for MRI contrast-enhancement oral-delivery applications.

Many Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models have exhibited a substantial cold bias in the global mean surface temperature (GMST) in the latter part of the 20th century. An overly strong negative aerosol forcing has been suggested as a leading contributor to this bias. An updated configuration of UK Earth System Model (UKESM) version 1, UKESM1.1, has been developed with the aim of reducing the historical cold bias in this model. Changes implemented include an improved representation of SO2 dry deposition, along with several other smaller modifications to the aerosol scheme and a retuning of some uncertain parameters of the fully coupled Earth system model. The Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, a six-member historical ensemble and a subset of future scenario simulations are completed. In addition, the total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF), its components and the effective and transient climate sensitivities are also computed. The UKESM1.1 preindustrial climate is warmer than UKESM1 by up to 0.75 K, and a significant improvement in the historical GMST record is simulated, with the magnitude of the cold bias reduced by over 50 %. The warmer climate increases ocean heat uptake in the Northern Hemisphere oceans and reduces Arctic sea ice, which is in better agreement with observations. Changes to the aerosol and related cloud properties are a driver of the improved GMST simulation despite only a modest reduction in the magnitude of the negative aerosol ERF (which increases by +0.08 W m−2). The total anthropogenic ERF increases from 1.76 W m−2 in UKESM1 to 1.84 W m−2 in UKESM1.1. The effective climate sensitivity (5.27 K) and transient climate response (2.64 K) remain largely unchanged from UKESM1 (5.36 and 2.76 K respectively).

Introduction: We aimed to demonstrate non-invasive measurements of regional oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) from quantitative BOLD MRI modeling at baseline and after pharmacological vasodilation. We hypothesized that OEF decreases in response to vasodilation with acetazolamide (ACZ) in healthy conditions, reflecting compensation in regions with increased cerebral blood flow (CBF), while cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2) remained unchanged. We also aimed to assess the relationship between OEF and perfusion in the default mode network (DMN) regions that have shown associations with vascular risk factors and cerebrovascular reactivity in different neurological conditions.Material and methods: Eight healthy subjects (47 ± 13 years, 6 female) were scanned on a 3 T scanner with a 32-channel head coil before and after administration of 15 mg/kg ACZ as a pharmacological vasodilator. The MR imaging acquisition protocols included: 1) A Gradient Echo Slice Excitation Profile Imaging Asymmetric Spin Echo scan to quantify OEF, deoxygenated blood volume, and reversible transverse relaxation rate (R2’) and 2) a multi-post labeling delay arterial spin labeling scan to measure CBF. To assess changes in each parameter due to vasodilation, two-way t-tests were performed for all pairs (baseline versus vasodilation) in the DMN brain regions with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. The relationships between CBF versus OEF and CBF versus R2’ were analyzed and compared across DMN regions using linear, mixed-effect models.Results: During vasodilation, CBF significantly increased in the medial frontal cortex (P=0.004), posterior cingulate gyrus (pCG) (P=0.004), precuneus cortex (PCun) (P=0.004), and occipital pole (P=0.001). Concurrently, a significant decrease in OEF was observed only in the pCG (8.8%, P=0.003) and PCun (8.7%,P=0.001). CMRO2 showed a trend of increased values after vasodilation, but these differences were not significant after correction for multiple comparisons. Although R2’ showed a slightly decreasing trend, no statistically significant changes were found in any regions in response to ACZ. The CBF response to ACZ exhibited a stronger negative correlation with OEF (β=−0.104±0.027; t=−3.852,P

Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, but predictions of its future loss are made difficult by the large spread both in present-day and in future sea ice area and volume; hence, there is a need to better understand the drivers of model spread in sea ice state. Here we present a framework for understanding differences between modelled sea ice simulations based on attributing seasonal ice growth and melt differences. In the method presented, the net downward surface flux is treated as the principal driver of seasonal sea ice growth and melt. An energy balance approach is used to estimate the pointwise effect of model differences in key Arctic climate variables on this surface flux and hence on seasonal sea ice growth and melt. We compare three models with very different historical sea ice simulations: HadGEM2-ES, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1.0. The largest driver of differences in ice growth and melt between these models is shown to be the ice area in summer (representing the surface albedo feedback) and the ice thickness distribution in winter (the thickness–growth feedback). Differences in snow and melt pond cover during the early summer exert a smaller effect on the seasonal growth and melt, hence representing the drivers of model differences in both this and in the sea ice volume. In particular, the direct impacts on sea ice growth and melt of differing model parameterisations of snow area and of melt ponds are shown to be small but non-negligible.

Abstract Water vapor in the Arctic can be attributed to local evaporation and transport from mid‐latitudes. Here we investigate the response of Arctic water vapor to declining sea ice in a climate model, using an idealized warming scenario in which the Arctic becomes ice free year‐round. We find distinct monthly patterns in water vapor change with warming, with a strong influence of sea ice loss on changes to evaporation, except in summer when transports dominate. Before the Arctic becomes ice‐free, total column water increases at a rate slower than that indicated by the Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship; once ice‐free, total column water increases at a rate equal to Clausius‐Clapeyron. The exception is summer when the increase is initially faster then becomes slower when ice‐free. The boundary layer structure changes, under global warming, from stratified to well mixed in all seasons except summer, which remains largely unchanged throughout the ice‐free transition.

The UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is a new traceable hierarchy of three model configurations at 1, 1/4 and 1/12° based on version 4.0.4 of the NEMO code. GOSI9 has been developed as part of the UK's Joint Marine Modelling Programme (JMMP), a partnership between the Met Office, the National Oceanography Centre, the British Antarctic Survey, and the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling. Following a seamless approach, it will be used for a variety of applications across a wide range of spatial and temporal resolutions: short-range coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, ocean forecasts, seasonal and decadal forecasts, and climate and Earth system modelling. The GOSI9 configurations are described in detail with a special focus on the updates since the previous version (GO6-GSI8). Results from 30-year ocean–ice integrations forced by CORE2 fluxes are presented for the three resolutions, and the impacts of the updates are assessed using the 1/4° integrations. The upgrade to NEMO 4.0.4 includes a new sea ice model SI3 (Sea Ice modelling Integrated Initiative) and faster integration achieved through the use of partially implicit schemes that allow a significant increase in the length of the time step. The quality of the simulations is generally improved compared to GO6-GSI8. The temperature and salinity drifts are largely reduced thanks to the upgrade to NEMO 4.0.4 and the adoption of fourth-order horizontal and vertical advections helping to reduce the numerical mixing. To improve the representation of the Southern Ocean, a scale-aware form of the Gent–McWilliams parameterization and the application of a partial-slip lateral boundary condition on momentum in the Southern Ocean have been added, resulting in a stronger and more realistic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport and a reduction in the temperature and salinity biases along the shelf of Antarctica. In the Arctic, the representation of sea ice is improved, leading to a reduction in surface temperature and salinity biases. In particular, the excessive and unrealistic Arctic summer sea ice melt in GO6-GSI8 is significantly improved in GOSI9 and can be attributed to the change in the sea ice model and to the higher albedos that increased sea ice thickness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic sea ice prediction has garnered increasing attention in recent years, particularly in the context of the recent record lows of February 2022 and 2023. As Antarctica becomes a climate change hotspot, as polar tourism booms, and as scientific expeditions continue to explore this remote continent, the capacity to anticipate sea ice conditions weeks to months in advance is in increasing demand. Spurred by recent studies that uncovered physical mechanisms of Antarctic sea ice predictability and by the intriguing large variations of the observed sea ice extent in recent years, the Sea Ice Prediction Network South (SIPN South) project was initiated in 2017, building upon the Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Network. The SIPN South project annually coordinates spring-to-summer predictions of Antarctic sea ice conditions, to allow robust evaluation and intercomparison, and to guide future development in polar prediction systems. In this paper, we present and discuss the initial SIPN South results collected over six summer seasons (December-February 2017-2018 to 2022-2023). We use data from 22 unique contributors spanning five continents that have together delivered more than 3000 individual forecasts of sea ice area and concentration. The SIPN South median forecast of the circumpolar sea ice area captures the sign of the recent negative anomalies, and the verifying observations are systematically included in the 10-90% range of the forecast distribution. These statements also hold at the regional level except in the Ross Sea where the systematic biases and the ensemble spread are the largest. A notable finding is that the group forecast, constructed by aggregating the data provided by each contributor, outperforms most of the individual forecasts, both at the circumpolar and regional levels. This indicates the value of combining predictions to average out model-specific errors. Finally, we find that dynamical model predictions (i.e., based on process-based general circulation models) generally perform worse than statistical model predictions (i.e., data-driven empirical models including machine learning) in representing the regional variability of sea ice concentration in summer. SIPN South is a collaborative community project that is hosted on a shared public repository. The forecast and verification data used in SIPN South are publicly available in near-real time for further use by the polar research community, and eventually, policymakers.

One leading hypothesis for why we lose our hearing as we age is a decrease in ear metabolism. However, direct measurements of metabolism across a lifespan in any auditory system are lacking. Even if metabolism does decrease with age, a question remains: is a metabolic decrease a cause of age-related auditory decline or simply correlative? We use an insect, the desert locust Schistocerca gregaria, as a physiologically versatile model to understand how cellular metabolism correlates with age and impacts on age-related auditory decline. We found that auditory organ metabolism decreases with age as measured fluorometrically. Next, we measured the individual auditory organ’s metabolic rate and its sound-evoked nerve activity and found no correlation. We found no age-related change in auditory nerve activity, using hook electrode recordings, and in the electrophysiological properties of auditory neurons, using patch-clamp electrophysiology, but transduction channel activity decreased. To further test for a causative role of the metabolic rate in auditory decline, we manipulated metabolism of the auditory organ through diet and cold-rearing but found no difference in sound-evoked nerve activity. We found that although metabolism correlates with age-related auditory decline, it is not causative. Finally, we performed RNA-Seq on the auditory organs of young and old locusts, and whilst we found enrichment for Gene Ontology terms associated with metabolism, we also found enrichment for a number of additional aging GO terms. We hypothesize that age-related hearing loss is dominated by accumulative damage in multiple cell types and multiple processes which outweighs its metabolic decline.

Introduction: Cerebral blood flow (CBF) is an important physiological parameter that can be quantified non-invasively using arterial spin labelling (ASL) imaging. Although most ASL studies are based on single-timepoint strategies, multi-timepoint approaches (multiple-PLD) in combination with appropriate model fitting strategies may be beneficial not only to improve CBF quantification but also to retrieve other physiological information of interest.Methods: In this work, we tested several kinetic models for the fitting of multiple-PLD pCASL data in a group of 10 healthy subjects. In particular, we extended the standard kinetic model by incorporating dispersion effects and the macrovascular contribution and assessed their individual and combined effect on CBF quantification. These assessments were performed using two pseudo-continuous ASL (pCASL) datasets acquired in the same subjects but during two conditions mimicking different CBF dynamics: normocapnia and hypercapnia (achieved through a CO2 stimulus).Results: All kinetic models quantified and highlighted the different CBF spatiotemporal dynamics between the two conditions. Hypercapnia led to an increase in CBF whilst decreasing arterial transit time (ATT) and arterial blood volume (aBV). When comparing the different kinetic models, the incorporation of dispersion effects yielded a significant decrease in CBF (∼10–22%) and ATT (∼17–26%), whilst aBV (∼44–74%) increased, and this was observed in both conditions. The extended model that includes dispersion effects and the macrovascular component has been shown to provide the best fit to both datasets.Conclusion: Our results support the use of extended models that include the macrovascular component and dispersion effects when modelling multiple-PLD pCASL data.

Abstract The study of fire history and driving mechanisms at long time scales can provide a theoretical background for future fire management in forested regions. The alpine lake sediments from Daye Lake in the Qinling Mountains, east‐central China, were used to explore the influence of climate, vegetation and human activity on fires since the LGM, based on charcoals and black carbon. During the last glacial period, fire activity was mostly controlled by regional aridity under a weak East Asian summer monsoon, while human‐induced fires were commonly dominated in the late Holocene. Fire activity was found to be linked to biomass through temperature variability. The biofuel dominated by conifers induced high intensity fires in the last glacial, and herbs contributed more to the high fire frequency over the mid‐late Holocene. With predicted future rising temperatures, increased vegetation cover and extreme climate events may increase the fire risk in the region.

Abstract Marine Isotopic Stage 5 is associated with wetter climatic conditions in the Saharo-Arabian deserts. This stage also corresponds to the establishment of Middle Paleolithic hominins and their associated material culture in two geographical provinces in southwest Asia—the Eastern Mediterranean woodland and the Arabian Peninsula desert. The lithic industry of the Eastern Mediterranean is characterized by the centripetal Levallois method, whereas the Nubian Levallois method characterizes the populations of the Arabian desert. The Negev Desert, situated between these regions is a key area to comprehend population movement in correlation to climatic zones. This investigation addresses the nature of the Middle Paleolithic settlement in the Negev Desert during MIS 5 by studying the site of Nahal Aqev. High resolution chronological results based on luminescence dating and cryptotephra show the site was occupied from MIS 5e to MIS 5d. The lithic industries at Nahal Aqev are dominated by centripetal Levallois core method. These data demonstrate that Nahal Aqev is much closer in its cultural attributes to the Eastern Mediterranean Middle Paleolithic than to the Arabian Desert entity. We conclude that Nahal Aqev represents an expansion of Middle Paleolithic groups from the Mediterranean woodland into the desert, triggered by better climatic conditions. These groups possibly interacted with hominin groups bearing the Nubian core tradition from the vast region of Arabia.

The feasibility of assimilating sea ice thickness (SIT) observations derived from CryoSat-2 along-track measurements of sea ice freeboard is successfully demonstrated using a 3D-Var assimilation scheme, NEMOVAR, within the Met Office's global, coupled ocean–sea-ice model, Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM). The CryoSat-2 Arctic freeboard measurements are produced by the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) and are converted to SIT within FOAM using modelled snow depth. This is the first time along-track observations of SIT have been used in this way, with other centres assimilating gridded and temporally averaged observations. The assimilation leads to improvements in the SIT analysis and forecast fields generated by FOAM, particularly in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic-wide observation-minus-background assimilation statistics for 2015–2017 show improvements of 0.75 m mean difference and 0.41 m root-mean-square difference (RMSD) in the freeze-up period and 0.46 m mean difference and 0.33 m RMSD in the ice break-up period. Validation of the SIT analysis against independent springtime in situ SIT observations from NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) shows improvement in the SIT analysis of 0.61 m mean difference (0.42 m RMSD) compared to a control without SIT assimilation. Similar improvements are seen in the FOAM 5 d SIT forecast. Validation of the SIT assimilation with independent Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project (BGEP) sea ice draft observations does not show an improvement, since the assimilated CryoSat-2 observations compare similarly to the model without assimilation in this region. Comparison with airborne electromagnetic induction (Air-EM) combined measurements of SIT and snow depth shows poorer results for the assimilation compared to the control, despite covering similar locations to the OIB and BGEP datasets. This may be evidence of sampling uncertainty in the matchups with the Air-EM validation dataset, owing to the limited number of observations available over the time period of interest. This may also be evidence of noise in the SIT analysis or uncertainties in the modelled snow depth, in the assimilated SIT observations, or in the data used for validation. The SIT analysis could be improved by upgrading the observation uncertainties used in the assimilation. Despite the lack of CryoSat-2 SIT observations available for assimilation over the summer due to the detrimental effect of melt ponds on retrievals, it is shown that the model is able to retain improvements to the SIT field throughout the summer months due to prior, wintertime SIT assimilation. This also results in regional improvements to the July modelled sea ice concentration (SIC) of 5 % RMSD in the European sector, due to slower melt of the thicker sea ice.

Abstract The spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta Erxleben) and the lion (Panthera leo Linnaeus) are two of the most abundant and charismatic large mammalian carnivores in Africa and yet both are experiencing declining populations and significant pressures from environmental change. However, with few exceptions, most studies have focused on influences upon spotted hyena and lion populations within individual sites, rather than synthesizing data from multiple locations. This has impeded the identification of over‐arching trends behind the changing biomass of these large predators. Using partial least squares regression models, influences upon population biomass were therefore investigated, focusing upon prey biomass, temperature, precipitation, and vegetation cover. Additionally, as both species are in competition with one other for food, the influence of competition and evidence of environmental partitioning were assessed. Our results indicate that spotted hyena biomass is more strongly influenced by environmental conditions than lion, with larger hyena populations in areas with warmer winters, cooler summers, less drought, and more semi‐open vegetation cover. Competition was found to have a negligible influence upon spotted hyena and lion populations, and environmental partitioning is suggested, with spotted hyena population biomass greater in areas with more semi‐open vegetation cover. Moreover, spotted hyena is most heavily influenced by the availability of medium‐sized prey biomass, whereas lion is influenced more by large size prey biomass. Given the influences identified upon spotted hyena populations in particular, the results of this study could be used to highlight populations potentially at greatest risk of decline, such as in areas with warming summers and increasingly arid conditions.

AbstractPrincipled capitalism has been proposed as a replacement for liberal capitalism. Moral principles should be driving our individual and collective decisions rather than utility and profit. A new unit called an oblig is suggested as a measure of the amount of the substance of the “stuff” that moves around in a social field of obligation forces. The notion of dynamic equilibrium is amplified and obligs are compared with the utils of utility theory and qualitative deposits in “emotional bank accounts”. It is concluded that the methods of utility theory are not appropriate for principled capitalism. A new unit of obligatory force is defined as a carson after the ecologist Rachel Carson. It is that force required to change the rate of change of a measured item within an obligation. The mathematics of obligs is developed and illustrated with four examples, two concerning individual relationships and two as applied to company and national government accounts.

Purpose: There are many approaches to the quantitative BOLD (qBOLD) technique described in the literature, differing in pulse sequences, MRI parameters and data processing. Thus, in this review, we summarized the acquisition methods, approaches used for oxygenation quantification and clinical populations investigated. Methods: Three databases were systematically searched (Medline, Embase, and Web of Science) for published research that used qBOLD methods for quantification of oxygen metabolism. Data extraction and synthesis were performed by one author and reviewed by a second author. Results: A total of 93 relevant papers were identified. Acquisition strategies were summarized, and oxygenation parameters were found to have been investigated in many pathologies such as steno‐occlusive diseases, stroke, glioma, and multiple sclerosis disease. Conclusion: A summary of qBOLD approaches for oxygenation measurements and applications could help researchers to identify good practice and provide objective information to inform the development of future consensus recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ocean plays a key role in modulating the climate of the Earth system (ES). At the present time it is also a major sink both for the carbon dioxide (CO2) released by human activities and for the excess heat driven by the resulting atmospheric greenhouse effect. Understanding the ocean's role in these processes is critical for model projections of future change and its potential impacts on human societies. A necessary first step in assessing the credibility of such future projections is an evaluation of their performance against the present state of the ocean. Here we use a range of observational fields to validate the physical and biogeochemical performance of the ocean component of UKESM1, a new Earth system model (ESM) for CMIP6 built upon the HadGEM3-GC3.1 physical climate model. Analysis focuses on the realism of the ocean's physical state and circulation, its key elemental cycles, and its marine productivity. UKESM1 generally performs well across a broad spectrum of properties, but it exhibits a number of notable biases. Physically, these include a global warm bias inherited from model spin-up, excess northern sea ice but insufficient southern sea ice and sluggish interior circulation. Biogeochemical biases found include shallow remineralization of sinking organic matter, excessive iron stress in regions such as the equatorial Pacific, and generally lower surface alkalinity that results in decreased surface and interior dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations. The mechanisms driving these biases are explored to identify consequences for the behaviour of UKESM1 under future climate change scenarios and avenues for model improvement. Finally, across key biogeochemical properties, UKESM1 improves in performance relative to its CMIP5 precursor and performs well alongside its fellow members of the CMIP6 ensemble.

Abstract Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5, ~ 130 to 71 thousand years ago, was a key period for the geographic expansion of Homo sapiens, including engagement with new landscapes within Africa and dispersal into Asia. Occupation of the Levant by Homo sapiens in MIS 5 is well established, while recent research has documented complementary evidence in Arabia. Here, we undertake the first detailed comparison of Levallois core technology from eastern Africa, Arabia, and the Levant during MIS 5, including multiple sites associated with Homo sapiens fossils. We employ quantitative comparisons of individual artefacts that provides a detailed appraisal of Levallois reduction activity in MIS 5, thereby enabling assessment of intra- and inter-assemblage variability for the first time. Our results demonstrate a pattern of geographically structured variability embedded within a shared focus on centripetal Levallois reduction schemes and overlapping core morphologies. We reveal directional changes in core shaping and flake production from eastern Africa to Arabia and the Levant that are independent of differences in geographic or environmental parameters. These results are consistent with a common cultural inheritance between these regions, potentially stemming from a shared late Middle Pleistocene source in eastern Africa.

Background A recent UK Government draft Heath White Paper follows the NHS England long term plan when it states that NHS England requires “a new framework that builds on changes already being made as well as building in the flexibility to support the system to tackle challenges of the future”. At present the structure of Health and Social Care Services UK reporting to Government seems unhelpfully complex and opaque. Objective The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the building of a new framework using a generic approach to identify and use ‘systemic processes’ to facilitate the integration of Health and Social Care services in NHS England and elsewhere. Methods We highlight some of the critical issues that are currently hindering integration and set out a new way of understanding the structure of NHS England through an ‘inside-out’ analysis of systemic processes. Results We describe and give three examples of existing systemic processes as ‘Consulting a patient’, ‘Enhancing a Single point of access’ - to mental health services and ‘Delivering health and social care services England’. Conclusions Rethinking the interactions between existing organisations could arguably bring considerable benefits including cost savings, better co-ordination, less ‘admin’ stress on staff where the work is done and provide more organisational adaptability in an uncertain future. Ultimately our suggestions are aimed at helping people to deliver better patient care - the impelling purpose of all health and social care services.