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Climate change is inevitable and intensifying. The consequences are particularly severe for urban areas, which are becoming increasingly populated. This has resulted in the necessity to analyze the effects of climate change on the functioning of urban areas and build and plan strategies for strengthening the resilience of cities and their infrastructures and for predicting climate change and the threats associated with it. This study proposes a multi-criteria model for analyzing and assessing the risk arising from climate change to urban areas by determining the probability of the occurrence of various threats and their potential consequences for urbanization. The model takes into account the exposure and vulnerability of assets, systems, infrastructure, and communities to the significant consequences of climate change and the occurrence of hazardous events. Bayesian probability theory was proposed to predict the probability of hazardous event occurrence, taking into account climate change and the statistical uncertainty in estimating extreme hazard impacts. The proposed model allows us to include vulnerability drivers and resilience factors and their effect on the functioning of a city and its critical infrastructures and, consequently, the lives and well-being of residents. The model can be applied to risk management and planning strategies for urban resilience strengthening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis and optimization of the operational and maintenance costs of water management systems is one of the key issues of their exploitation. This article presents a general model, supported by specially designed software, able to process the analysis of exploitation costs of multistate renewable systems. The proposed model allows for the consideration of costs related to preventive inspections and repairs and additional reliability associated costs, such as costs of the system in a state of deteriorated reliability and financial losses related to reduced serviceability of the system or a lack of rendering of services. By means of a multistate approach to the reliability analysis, the model allows for the determination of the level corresponding to the appropriate reliability state that, if exceeded, should result in undertaking the repair of the system. In this study, the MATLAB 9.13 (R2022b) environment was used for simulation and estimation of the costs of system maintenance and repairs according to the proposed model. The article presents the results of the optimization of exploitation and repair costs of water management systems, allowing the estimation of the optimal period between regular inspections while maintaining the safe operation of the system. The model and software proposed can be of assistance in supporting the decision process of maintenance planning for water management systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]