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This paper describes a new screening method for assessing groundwater vulnerability to pollution from hydrocarbon exploitation in the subsurface. The method can be used for various hydrocarbon energy sources, including conventional oil and gas, shale gas and oil, coal bed methane and underground coal gasification. Intrinsic vulnerability of potential receptors is assessed at any particular location by identifying possible geological pathways for contaminant transport. This is followed by an assessment of specific vulnerability which takes into account the nature of the subsurface hydrocarbon activity and driving heads. A confidence rating is attached to each parameter in the assessment to provide an indication of the confidence in the screening. Risk categories and associated confidence ratings are designed to aid in environmental decision making, regulation and management, highlighting where additional information is required. The method is demonstrated for conventional gas and proposed shale gas operations in northern England but can be adapted for use in any geological or hydrogeological setting and for other subsurface activities., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

It is widely acknowledged that waterbodies are becoming increasingly affected by a wide range of drivers of change arising from human activity. To illustrate how this can be quantified a linked modelling approach was applied in the Thames river basin in southern UK. Changes to river flows, water temperature, river and reservoir quality were predicted under three contrasting future "storylines"; one an extension of present day rates of economic development, the others representing more extreme and less sustainable visions. Modelling revealed that lower baseflow conditions will arise under all storylines. For the less extreme storyline river water quality is likely to deteriorate but reservoir quality will improve slightly. The two more extreme futures could not be supported by current management strategies to meet water demand. To satisfy these scenarios, transfer of river water from outside the Thames river basin would be necessary. Consequently, some improvement over present day water quality in the river may be seen, and for most indicators conditions would be better than in the less extreme storyline. However, because phosphorus concentrations will rise, the invoked changes in water demand management would not be of a form suitable to prevent a marked deterioration in reservoir water quality., (Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Groundwater and surface water are often closely coupled and are both under the influence of multiple stressors. Stressed groundwater systems may lead to a poor ecological status of surface waters but to date no conceptual framework to analyse linked multi-stressed groundwater - surface water systems has been developed. In this paper, a framework is proposed showing the effect of groundwater on surface waters in multiple stressed systems. This framework will be illustrated by applying it to four European catchments, the Odense, Denmark, the Regge and Dinkel, Netherlands, and the Thames, UK, and by assessing its utility in analysing the propagation or buffering of multi-stressors through groundwater to surface waters in these catchments. It is shown that groundwater affects surface water flow, nutrients and temperature, and can both propagate stressors towards surface waters and buffer the effect of stressors in space and time. The effect of groundwater on drivers and states depends on catchment characteristics, stressor combinations, scale and management practises. The proposed framework shows how groundwater in lowland catchments acts as a bridge between stressors and their effects within surface waters. It shows water managers how their management areas might be influenced by groundwater, and helps them to include this important, but often overlooked part of the water cycle in their basin management plans. The analysis of the study catchments also revealed a lack of data on the temperature of both groundwater and surface water, while it is an important parameter considering future climate warming., (Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Shale gas is considered by many to have the potential to provide the UK with greater energy security, economic growth and jobs. However, development of a shale gas industry is highly contentious due to environmental concerns including the risk of groundwater pollution. Evidence suggests that the vertical separation between exploited shale units and aquifers is an important factor in the risk to groundwater from shale gas exploitation. A methodology is presented to assess the vertical separation between different pairs of aquifers and shales that are present across England and Wales. The application of the method is then demonstrated for two of these pairs-the Cretaceous Chalk Group aquifer and the Upper Jurassic Kimmeridge Clay Formation, and the Triassic sandstone aquifer and the Carboniferous Bowland Shale Formation. Challenges in defining what might be considered criteria for 'safe separation' between a shale gas formation and an overlying aquifer are discussed, in particular with respect to uncertainties in geological properties, aquifer extents and determination of socially acceptable risk levels. Modelled vertical separations suggest that the risk of aquifer contamination from shale exploration will vary greatly between shale-aquifer pairs and between regions and this will need to be considered carefully as part of the risk assessment and management for any shale gas development.

This article presents an innovative framework for analysing environmental governance challenges by focusing on their Drivers, Responses and Impacts (DRI). It builds on and modifies the widely applied Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts and Responses (DPSIR) model. It suggests, firstly and most importantly, that the various temporal and spatial scales at which Drivers, Responses and Impacts operate should be included in the DRI conceptual framework. Secondly, the framework focuses on Drivers, Impacts and Responses in order to provide a parsimonious account of a drought system that can be informed by a range of social science, humanities and science data. 'Pressures' are therefore considered as a sub-category of 'Drivers'. 'States' are a sub-category of 'Impacts'. Thirdly, and most fundamentally in order to facilitate cross-disciplinary research of droughts, the DRI framework defines each of its elements, 'Drivers', 'Pressures', 'States', 'Impacts' and 'Responses' as capable of being shaped by both linked natural and social factors. This is different from existing DPSIR models which often see 'Responses' and 'Impacts' as located mainly in the social world, while 'States' are considered to be states within the natural environment only. The article illustrates this argument through an application of the DRI framework to the 1976 and 2003-6 droughts. The article also starts to address how - in cross-disciplinary research that encompasses physical and social sciences - claims about relationships between Drivers as well as Impacts of and Responses to drought over time can be methodologically justified. While the DRI framework has been inductively developed out of research on droughts we argue that it can be applied to a range of environmental governance challenges., (Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Nitrate pollution in groundwater, which is mainly from agricultural activities, remains an international problem. It threatens the environment, economics and human health. There is a rising trend in nitrate concentrations in many UK groundwater bodies. Research has shown it can take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into groundwater and surface water due to the 'store' of nitrate and its potentially long travel time in the unsaturated and saturated zones. However, this time lag is rarely considered in current water nitrate management and policy development. The aim of this study was to develop a catchment-scale integrated numerical method to investigate the nitrate lag time in the groundwater system, and the Eden Valley, UK, was selected as a case study area. The method involves three models, namely the nitrate time bomb-a process-based model to simulate the nitrate transport in the unsaturated zone (USZ), GISGroundwater--a GISGroundwater flow model, and N-FM--a model to simulate the nitrate transport in the saturated zone. This study answers the scientific questions of when the nitrate currently in the groundwater was loaded into the unsaturated zones and eventually reached the water table; is the rising groundwater nitrate concentration in the study area caused by historic nitrate load; what caused the uneven distribution of groundwater nitrate concentration in the study area; and whether the historic peak nitrate loading has reached the water table in the area. The groundwater nitrate in the area was mainly from the 1980s to 2000s, whilst the groundwater nitrate in most of the source protection zones leached into the system during 1940s-1970s; the large and spatially variable thickness of the USZ is one of the major reasons for unevenly distributed groundwater nitrate concentrations in the study area; the peak nitrate loading around 1983 has affected most of the study area. For areas around the Bowscar, Beacon Edge, Low Plains, Nord Vue, Dale Springs, Gamblesby, Bankwood Springs, and Cliburn, the peak nitrate loading will arrive at the water table in the next 34 years; statistical analysis shows that 8.7 % of the Penrith Sandstone and 7.3 % of the St Bees Sandstone have not been affected by peak nitrate. This research can improve the scientific understanding of nitrate processes in the groundwater system and support the effective management of groundwater nitrate pollution for the study area. With a limited number of parameters, the method and models developed in this study are readily transferable to other areas.

This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework. Changes in temperature, precipitation quantity and distribution, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will affect the agricultural nitrate source term through changes in both soil processes and agricultural productivity. Non-agricultural source terms, such as urban areas and atmospheric deposition, are also expected to be affected. The implications for the rate of nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of these changes are not yet fully understood but predictions suggest that leaching rate may increase under future climate scenarios. Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle with changes to recharge, groundwater levels and resources and flow processes. These changes will impact on concentrations of nitrate in abstracted water and other receptors, such as surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands. The implications for nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of climate changes are not yet well enough understood to be able to make useful predictions without more site-specific data. The few studies which address the whole cycle show likely changes in nitrate leaching ranging from limited increases to a possible doubling of aquifer concentrations by 2100. These changes may be masked by nitrate reductions from improved agricultural practices, but a range of adaption measures need to be identified. Future impact may also be driven by economic responses to climate change., (Copyright © 2011 British Geological Survey. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Over the last two decades significant effort has been dedicated to understanding the fate and transport of pesticides in surface water and groundwater and to use this understanding in the development of environmental policy and regulation. However, there have been few studies that have investigated the relationships between pesticides and climate change, and where this work has been undertaken it has principally been in relation to the impacts of climate change on agricultural production rather than in the context of environmental protection. This study addresses that gap by reviewing how climate change may impact the fate and transport of pesticides in surface and groundwaters as a pre-cursor to quantitative studies. In order to structure the review, we have adopted a source-pathway-receptor approach where climate sensitivities of pesticide source terms, environmental pathways and receptors are reviewed. The main climate drivers for changing pesticide fate and behaviour are thought to be changes in rainfall seasonality and intensity and increased temperatures, but the effect of climate change on pesticide fate and transport is likely to be very variable and difficult to predict. In the long-term, indirect impacts, such as land-use change driven by changes in climate, may have a more significant effect on pesticides in surface and groundwaters than the direct impacts of climate change on pesticide fate and transport. The review focuses on climate change scenarios and case studies from the UK; however, the general conclusions can be applied more widely.

A model of porosity development has been developed to investigate general relationships between simple fracture aperture growth laws and fracture porosity in evolved fracture arrays in aquifers. The growth of fracture apertures in two-dimensional orthogonal arrays with initially spatially uncorrelated lognormal aperture distributions has been studied, where aperture growth rate is proportional to an exponent of the flow rate through each fracture. The evolved arrays show geometrical phase changes as a function of the aperture growth rate exponent, e, and the standard deviation of the initial aperture distribution, sigma(z). Low values of e and sigma(z) lead to bimodal aperture distributions, where apertures parallel to flow are preferentially enlarged. At moderate values of e and sigma(z), there is a transition to a regime of more complex geometries consisting of networks of channel-like structures of preferentially enlarged apertures. At larger values of e, array-spanning channel-like paths of preferentially enlarged apertures develop, where the tortuosity of the channel-like paths is a linear function of sigma(z). Following an initial growth phase, during which dynamically stable aperture configurations develop, arrays undergo simple amplification. The geometry of the evolved aperture fields is diverse and they can be highly complex; consequently, parameterization and prediction of their evolution in terms of the initial aperture distributions and growth rate laws is not trivial.

The pressure required for a chlorinated solvent to enter a geological medium can be calculated given knowledge of the characteristic pore size of the medium and the interfacial tension (IFT) and contact angle of the solvent-water-rock system. Using a centrifuge-based method, capillary pressure-saturation curves have been determined for 30 water-saturated samples of Permo-Triassic sandstones for the solvent tetrachloroethene (PCE). These curves have been successfully fitted using the van Genuchten function to determine PCE entry pressure for each of the sandstone samples. A plot of PCE entry pressures against average pore diameter shows a linear relationship in log-log space; however, observed values for PCE entry pressure are significantly lower than would be expected theoretically for a sandstone-PCE-water system. This may be explained either by a decrease in the IFT or an increase in the contact angle. The IFT may decrease during contact with sandstones due to hysteresis effects during imbibition and drainage of fluids, but this is unlikely to be sufficient to account for the low entry pressures observed. Therefore, it is inferred that the low observed PCE entry pressures are due to higher than expected PCE contact angles, and that the average pore-throat surface of the sandstones is more solvent wetting than would be expected. A weak acid extraction indicates the presence of calcite and dolomite in the sandstone cores, and a correlation is observed between carbonate content per unit porosity and a reduction in PCE entry pressure. It is suggested that these mineral phases are responsible for observed wettability changes and a conceptual model is proposed. One consequence of the lower observed entry pressures is that solvents are likely to penetrate deeper into the matrix of water-saturated sandstones than previously expected.

Fracture mapping in a tunnel system and at nearby outcrop on the Runcorn Penninsula, UK, suggests the need for a review of the potential pathways for pollutant transport in Permo-Triassic sandstone aquifers. Sediment infilling is pervasive in the largest sub-vertical multi-layer fractures in the study area, both at the surface and to a depth of about 40 m below ground level. Sediment infill is inferred to have formed in situ. The conventional models of pollutant transport in fracture networks assume that they comprise open fractures, with pollutant mobility depending on fracture connectivity (a function of density, length, orientation and intersection) and aperture. The presence of extensive sediment fills in fractures will materially change their permeability, thereby reducing pollutant flux, and be of significance in the assessment of risks arising from chemical spillages. There has been little or no substantive evidence for such fills in Permo-Triassic sandstones in the UK, apart from observations at outcrop and anecdotes of sand being pumped from boreholes. Here, we report surface and rare, but complementary, subsurface observations of extensive fills in the Cheshire basin, and argue that they will only act as preferential pathways where they crosscut low-permeability horizons such as mudstones.

The behavior of the herbicides isoproturon (IPU) and chlortoluron (CTU) in ground water and shallow unsaturated zone sediments were evaluated at a site situated on the Chalk in southern England. Concentrations of IPU in ground water samples varied from < 0.05 to 0.23 microgram/L over a five-year period of monitoring, and were found to correlate with application of the pesticide. Concentrations of pesticides in ground water samples collected during periods of rising water table were significantly higher than pumped samples and suggest that rapidly infiltrating recharge water contains higher herbicide concentrations than the native ground water. Significant variations in herbicide concentrations were observed over a three-month period in ground water samples collected by an automated system, with concentrations of IPU ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 microgram/L, and concentrations of a recent application of CTU ranging from 0.2 to 0.8 microgram/L. Different extraction methods were used to assess pore water concentrations of herbicides in the unsaturated zone, and samples were analyzed by standard HPLC analysis and immunoassay (ELISA) methods. These data indicated highly variable concentrations of herbicide ranging from 4 to 200 g/ha for HPLC and 0.01 to 0.04 g/ha for ELISA, but indicate a general pattern of decreasing concentrations with depth. The results of this study indicate that transport of IPU and CTU through the unsaturated zone to shallow ground water occurs and that this transport increases immediately following herbicide application. Measured concentrations of herbicides are generally lower than specified by the European Union Drinking Water Directive, but are observed to spike above this limit. These results imply that, while delivery of pesticides to ground water can occur as a result of normal agricultural practices, the impact on potable supplies is likely to be negligible due to the potential for degradation during the relatively long travel time through the unsaturated zone and high degree of dilution that occurs within the aquifer. As a result of the wide variation in concentrations detected by different techniques, it is suggested that for future site investigations more than one sampling strategy be employed to characterize the occurrence of pesticide residues and elucidate the transport mechanisms.