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Updated guidelines on diabetes recommend targeting sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) at patients at risk of heart failure (HF) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA) at those at greater risk of atherothrombotic events.We estimated the risk of different cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and newly established cardiovascular disease.Patients with T2D and newly established cardiovascular disease from 1998 to 2016 were identified using Danish healthcare registers and divided into one of four phenotype groups: (1) HF, (2) ischemic heart disease (IHD), (3) transient ischemic stroke (TIA)/ischemic stroke, and (4) peripheral artery disease (PAD). The absolute 5-year risk of the first HF- or atherothrombotic event occurring after inclusion was calculated, along with the risk of death.The main outcome was the first event of either HF or an atherothrombotic event (IHD, TIA/ischemic stroke or PAD) in patients with T2D and new-onset cardiovascular disease.Of the 37,850 patients included, 40% were female and the median age was 70 years. Patients with HF were at higher 5-year risk of a subsequent HF event (17.9%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 17.1-18.8%) than an atherothrombotic event (15.8%; 15.0-16.6%). Patients with IHD were at higher risk of a subsequent atherothrombotic event (24.6%; 23.9-25.3%) than developing HF, although the risk of HF was still substantial (10.6%; 10.2-11.1%). Conversely, patients with PAD were at low risk of developing HF (4.4%; 3.8-5.1%) but at high risk of developing an atherothrombotic event (15.9%; 14.9-17.1%). Patients with TIA/ischemic stroke had the lowest risk of HF (3.2%; 2.9-3.6%) and the highest risk of an atherothrombotic event (20.6%; 19.8-21.4).In T2D, a patient's cardiovascular phenotype can help predict the pattern of future cardiovascular events.

The Cox model is one of the most used statistical models in medical research. It models the hazard rate of an event and its association with covariates through hazard ratios. In the simple setting without competing risks nor time-dependent covariates, there exists a one-to-one mathematical connection between the hazard rate and the risk of experiencing the event within any given time period (e.g., 5 years). This makes it possible to conclude that a covariate associated with a hazard ratio above one is associated with a higher risk of event. Although it is becoming widely known that this connection is lost in the presence of competing risks, it seems that fewer users of the Cox model are aware that this connection is also lost when using time-dependent covariates. In other words, it seems still widely unknown that, when using a time-dependent Cox model, a hazard ratio estimated above one does not necessarily mean that there is a higher risk. Hence, this note aims to clarify why this is not the case with a detailed pedagogical example.

The prognostic importance of new-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) in heart failure (HF) remains unknown. We aimed to describe the cardiovascular outcome profile in HF patients with new-onset, no and prevalent T2D.We constructed a cohort of patients with first HF admission between 1998 and 2016 from nationwide Danish registers. Outcomes were ischemic event, HF event, and death from other causes. The landmarking approach and the Aalen Johansen estimator were used together to estimate 5-year absolute and 5-year relative risk of the outcomes in HF patients with new-onset, no and prevalent T2D. Risk among subgroups were investigated by stratification.A total of 139 264 HF patients were included between 1998 and 2016, of which 29 078 patients had prevalent T2D. A total of 11 819 developed new-onset T2D. The 5-year risks of ischemic event in new-onset, no, and prevalent T2D were: 17.9% [17.2; 18.6], 18.8% [18.6; 19.0], and 26.1% [25.6; 26.7]. The 5-year risks of HF event were: 31.5% [30.6; 32.3], 30.7% [30.5; 31.0], and 33.6% [33.0; 34.2]. For other causes of death, the 5-year risks were: 20.9% [20.2; 21.7], 18.6% [18.4; 18.8], and 18.9% [18.4; 19.3]. The 5-year risk ratios of HF event or death from other causes versus ischemic event were: 2.9 [2.8; 3.1], 2.6 [2.6; 2.7], and 2.0 [2.0; 2.1] in patients with new-onset, no, and prevalent T2D.In patients with new-onset T2D, death from other causes were more likely to occur than an ischemic event, whereas in patients with prevalent T2D and no T2D, ischemic events were more common.

Introduction Hip fractures lead to a substantial burden of disease and mortality among the elderly. Myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke are serious and overlooked complications, and their impact on mortality and morbidity may be underestimated. We investigated; 90-day absolute risk of stroke and MI following hip fracture surgery, and ii) anamnestic risk factors associated with elevated risk of postoperative MI and stroke. Methods All Danish patients aged ≥60 undergoing first time hip fracture surgery in 2000–2017 were identified. Outcomes were MI or stroke 90 days after surgery. We performed gender-stratified cumulative incidence functions and multivariate Cox regression models adjusted for age and comorbidities. Results 124,660 patients were included. Incidence of MI was 2.2% and 1.3%, and incidence of stroke was 3.5% and 2.5%, in men and women, respectively. The most important risk factor for MI and stroke was a previous event. Hazard ratio (HR) of MI associated with previous MI was 2.43 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.02–2.92) in men and 2.65 (95% CI 2.23–3.16) in women, while the HR of stroke associated with previous stroke was 4.17 (95% CI 3.73–4.67) and 3.73 (95% CI 3.43–4.08), respectively. Other risk factors of MI were; sex, age, and a history of heart failure, hypertension, peripheral artery disease or diabetes. For postoperative stroke; sex age, and atrial fibrillation were important risk factors. Conclusion MI and stroke after hip fractures are overlooked and serious complications. Persons with elevated risk can be identified at admission, based on their medical history.

Aims We aimed to investigate the long-term cardio-protective effect associated with beta-blocker (BB) treatment in stable, optimally treated myocardial infarction (MI) patients without heart failure (HF). Methods and results Using nationwide registries, we included patients with first-time MI undergoing coronary angiography (CAG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) during admission and treated with both acetyl-salicylic acid and statins post-discharge between 2003 and 2018. Patients with prior history of MI, prior BB use, or any alternative indication or contraindication for BB treatment were excluded. Follow-up began 3 months following discharge in patients alive, free of cardiovascular (CV) events or procedures. Primary outcomes were CV death, recurrent MI, and a composite outcome of CV events. We used adjusted logistic regression and reported standardized absolute risks and differences (ARD) 3 years after MI. Overall, 30 177 stable, optimally treated MI patients were included (58% acute PCI, 26% sub-acute PCI, 16% CAG without intervention). At baseline, 82% of patients were on BB treatment (median age 61 years, 75% male) and 18% were not (median age 62 years, 68% male). BB treatment was associated with a similar risk of CV death, recurrent MI, and the composite outcome of CV events compared with no BB treatment [ARD (95% confidence intervals)] correspondingly; 0.1% (−0.3% to 0.5%), 0.2% (−0.7% to 1.2%), and 1.2% (−0.2% to 2.7%). Conclusions In this nationwide cohort study of stable, optimally treated MI patients without HF, we found no long-term effect of BB treatment on CV prognosis following the patients from 3 months to 3 years after MI admission.

ObjectiveGastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) risk in relation to concomitant treatment with non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOAC) and oral glucocorticoids is insufficiently explored. We aimed to investigate the short-term risk following coexposure.MethodsThis is a register-based, nationwide Danish study including patients with atrial fibrillation on NOACs during 2012–2018. Patients were defined as exposed to oral glucocorticoids if they claimed a prescription within 60 days prior to GIB. We investigated the associations between GIB and oral glucocorticoid exposure, reporting HRs via a nested case–control design and absolute risk via a cohort design. Matching terms were age, sex, calendar year, follow-up time and NOAC agent.Results98 376 patients on NOACs (median age: 75 years (IQR: 68–82), 44% female) were included, and 16% redeemed at least one oral glucocorticoid prescription within 3 years. HRs of GIB were increased comparing exposed with non-exposed patients (ConclusionsConcomitant treatment with NOACs and oral glucocorticoids was associated with a short-term rate and risk increase of GIB compared with patients only on NOACs. This could have implications for clinical management, necessitating closer monitoring or other risk mitigation strategies during episodes of cotreatment with oral glucocorticoids.

AIMS: Examine temporal changes in the risk of cardiovascular events in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes with and without cardiovascular disease (CVD).METHODS: 283,600 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes and age-, sex-, and CVD-matched controls without diabetes were identified through Danish nationwide registries between 1997 and 2014. Using Cox regression models, we report the standardized absolute 5-year risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure for people with diabetes and controls.RESULTS: Individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes were at increased risk of cardiovascular events compared to controls. From 1997-2002 to 2009-2014 reductions in cardiovascular events for people with diabetes were: cardiovascular death; 26.5% to 13.8% in people with CVD and from 7.3% to 3.2% in people without CVD, myocardial infarction; 13.1% to 6.5% in people with CVD and from 4.1% to 1.9% in people without CVD, stroke; 14.2% to 8.8% in people with CVD and from 4.9% to 2.2% in people without CVD, and heart failure; 21.0% to 13.8% in people with CVD and from 5.0% to 2.6% in people without CVD. The risk of cardiovascular events declined more among people with diabetes than controls.CONCLUSIONS: Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events, and the risk decreased significantly 1997-2014 in both people with and without CVD. Furthermore, the excess risk associated with type 2 diabetes decreased significantly during the study period.

Aims The association between socioeconomic position and cardiovascular disease has not been well studied in patients with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to examine the association between socioeconomic position and first-time major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods and results Through the Danish nationwide registers, we identified all residents with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes between 2012 and 2017. Based on sex-stratified multivariable cause-specific Cox regression models, we calculated the standardized absolute 5-year risk of the composite outcome of first-time myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular mortality (MACE) according to income quartiles. A total of 57 106 patients with type 2 diabetes were included. During 155 989 person years, first-time MACE occurred in 2139 patients. Among both men and women, income was inversely associated with the standardized absolute 5-year risk of MACE. In men, the 5-year risk of MACE increased from 5.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.9–6.5] in the highest income quartile to 9.3% (CI 8.3–10.2) in the lowest income group, with a risk difference of 3.5% (CI 2.4–4.7). In women, the risk of MACE increased from 4.2% (CI 3.4–5.0) to 6.1% (CI 5.2–7.0) according to income level, with a risk difference of 1.9% (CI 0.8–2.9). Conclusion Despite free access to medical care in Denmark, low-socioeconomic position was associated with a higher 5-year risk of first-time MACE in patients with incident type 2 diabetes. Our results suggest prevention strategies could be developed specifically for patients with low-socioeconomic position.

Background Social inequality poses a major public health challenge. Low socioeconomic position has been associated with cardiovascular disease in patients without diabetes. Yet, the association between socioeconomic position, type 2 diabetes, and first-time cardiovascular disease has not previously been investigated in a nationwide cohort from a country with equal access to healthcare. Purpose To examine the association between socioeconomic position and development of first-time major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in a Danish nationwide population of patients with incident type 2 diabetes. Methods Using the Danish nationwide registers, we identified all Danish residents with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes between 2000 and 2017. Patients aged 40–79 years, without a history of ischemic heart disease and/or stroke were included. Income was used as a surrogate for socioeconomic position, and was assessed as quartiles of inflation adjusted, mean five-year income prior to index. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard analyses were used to assess the association between income and the primary composite outcome of ischemic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular mortality (MACE). We assessed income as a time-dependent variable and adjusted for age, gender, calendar year, baseline comorbidities, and medication. Results In total 107,612 patients were included with a median age of 63 (interquartile range [IQR] 55–70) years and a median follow-up time of 6.8 (IQR 3.5–10.6) years. Patients in the lowest income quartile were older (median age 69 vs. 60 years) and more likely to be female (53.3% vs 36.7%) compared with the highest quartile (all P Conclusions Despite equal access to healthcare, low socioeconomic position was independently associated with an increased risk of first-time MACE in patients with incident type 2 diabetes. The finding was significant across age groups with the highest relative risks of MACE among younger patients. Our results indicate the importance of prevention strategies targeting patients with low socioeconomic position. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Zealand University Hospital Roskilde

Background Development of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is common in patients with heart failure (HF), but knowledge of future cardiovascular events is lacking. Purpose We compared risk of heart failure hospitalization (HFH) or death versus ischemic events in real-life HF patients with new-onset T2D, prevalent T2D and no T2D. Methods Using the Danish nationwide registers, we identified all patients with HF between 1998–2016. The patients were separated in two different HF cohorts based on the status of T2D. One cohort consisted of HF patients with either prevalent or absent T2D at the time of HF diagnosis. The other cohort consisted of HF patients, who developed new-onset T2D, included at time of diagnosis. The two HF cohorts were analyzed separately. Outcomes for both cohorts were analyzed as time-to-first event as either an ischemic event (i.e. composite outcome of fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral artery disease), HFH, or event-free death (not related to HFH or the ischemic event). For each cohort, we estimated the five-year absolute risk of ischemic event, HFH and event-free death, along with five-year risk ratio of HFH or event-free death versus ischemic events. Effects among subgroups were investigated by stratifying both cohorts based on age, gender and comorbidities present at inclusion. Results A total of 139,264 HF patients were included between 1998 and 2016, of which 29,078 (21%) patients had prevalent T2D at baseline. A total of 11,819 (8%) developed new-onset T2D and were included in the second cohort. The median duration of time between HF diagnosis and new-onset T2D diagnosis was: 4.1 years (IQR:1.5; 5.8). The absolute five-year risk of an ischemic event in patients with new-onset T2D, prevalent T2D and no T2D was: 17.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.2; 18.6), 26.1% (95% CI: 25.6; 26.7), and 18.8% (95% CI:18.6; 19.0). Corresponding estimates for HFH were: 31.5% (95% CI: 30.6; 32.3), 33.6% (95% CI: 33.0; 34.2), and 30,7% (95% CI: 30.5; 31.0). The absolute five-year risk of event-free death among patients with new-onset T2D, prevalent T2D and no T2D was: 20.9% (95% CI: 20.2; 21.7), 18.9% (95% CI:18.4; 19.3), and 18.6% (95% CI: 18.4; 18.8) (see Figure). The five-year risk ratio of experiencing HFH or event-free death versus an ischemic event was: 2.9 (95% CI: 2.8; 3.1), 2.0 (95% CI:2.0; 2.1), and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.6; 2.7) for patients with new-onset T2D, prevalent T2D and no T2D, respectively. Similar results of absolute and relative risk were present across all subgroups. Conclusion In our population of HF patients, 8% developed new-onset diabetes. Development of T2D in patients with HF increases the risk of HFH and mortality three-fold. The increased risk of new-onset T2D is higher than the importance of prevalent T2D in patients with HF. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Background Thiazide diuretics and calcium channel blockers (CCB's) are two important and widely used antihypertensive drugs classes among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). The risk of developing heart failure (HF) is increased in patients with T2D but whether use of these two drugs are associated with changes in HF risk is unknown. Purpose To examine and compare the association of two different classes of antihypertensive drugs, thiazide diuretics and CCB's, with the development of new onset HF in patients with T2D. Methods The study cohort comprised T2D patients >40 years on metformin and renin-angiotensin system inhibitor (RAS-i) without a history of HF or use of loop diuretics identified in Danish health care registers (period 1995 to 2015). A nested case-control study was conducted by matching all HF cases on sex, age and duration of T2D with 10 controls from the T2D population. Exposure was defined as three redeemed prescriptions of either a thiazide diuretic or a CCB up to 365 days before index, which corresponds to one year of antihypertensive therapy. Conditional logistic regression adjusted for comorbidities (atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and anemia) was used to estimate and compare the treatment effect of thiazide diuretics and CCB's, with patients receiving neither of the two drugs as reference. Results The study population consisted of 170,514 T2D patients using metformin and RAS-i, comprising 13,814 HF cases each matched on sex, age and duration of T2D with 10 controls. The median age was 62 years and 55% were men. T2D patients, who had received antihypertensive treatment with only thiazide diuretics one year prior to index had a significantly lower risk of HF compared to the reference group who did not receive treatment with neither thiazide diuretics or CCB's: Hazard ratio (HR) 0.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74–0.85]. Patients who had received treatment with only CCB's had a comparable risk of HF: HR 0.98 [95% CI 0.94–1.02]. Patients who had received treatment with both thiazide diuretics and CCB's were not associated with a lower risk of HF: HR 1.01 [95% CI 0.96–1.08]. Conclusion Patients with T2D who received antihypertensive therapy with thiazide diuretics for at least one year had a significantly lower risk of HF compared to those who were not treated with either thiazide diuretics or CCB's. No association between use of CCB's and HF was observed. Use of thiazide diuretics may prevent development of HF in T2D and a randomized clinical trial evaluating diuretics is patients with T2D is warranted. Risk of new onset heart failure Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Background: Heart failure (HF) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) has received growing attention. We examined the effect of HF development on prognosis compared with other cardiovascular or renal diagnoses in patients with T2D. Methods and Results: Patients with new T2D diagnosis patients were identified between 1998 and 2015 through Danish nationwide registers. At yearly landmark timepoints after T2D diagnosis, we estimated the 5-year risks of death, 5-year risk ratios, and decrease in lifespan within 5 years associated with the development of HF, ischemic heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, and chronic kidney disease. A total of 153 403 patients with newly diagnosed T2D were followed for a median of 9.7 years (interquartile range, 5.8–13.9) during which 48 087 patients died. The 5-year risk ratio of death associated with HF development 5 years after T2D diagnosis was 3 times higher (CI, 2.9–3.1) than patients free of diagnoses (CI, 2.9–3.1). Five-year risk ratios were lower for ischemic heart disease (1.3 [1.3–1.4]), stroke (2.2 [2.1–2.2]), chronic kidney disease (1.7 [1.7–1.8]), and peripheral artery disease (2.3 [2.3–2.4]). The corresponding decrease in lifespan within 5 years when compared with patients free of diagnoses (in months) was HF 11.7 (11.6–11.8), ischemic heart disease 1.6 (1.5–1.7), stroke 6.4 (6.3–6.5), chronic kidney disease 4.4 (4.3–4.6), and peripheral artery disease 6.9 (6.8–7.0). HF in combination with any other diagnosis imposed the greatest risk of death and decrease in life span compared with other combinations. Supplemental analysis led to similar results when stratified according to age, sex, and comorbidity status, and inclusion period. Conclusions: HF development, at any year since T2D diagnosis, was associated with the highest 5-year absolute and relative risk of death, and decrease in lifespan within 5 years, when compared with development of other cardiovascular or renal diagnoses.

Aim To determine the incidence, patient characteristics, and related events associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during a national COVID-19 lockdown. Methods and results Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients, aged 18–90 years, receiving a new-onset AF diagnosis during the first 3 months of 2019 and 2020. The main comparison was between patients diagnosed during lockdown (12 March 12–1 April 2020) and patients diagnosed in the corresponding period 1 year previously. We found a lower incidence of new-onset AF during the 3 weeks of lockdown compared with the corresponding weeks in 2019 [incidence rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the 3 weeks: 0.66 (0.56–0.78), 0.53 (0.45–0.64), and 0.41 (0.34–0.50)]. There was a 47% drop in total numbers (562 vs. 1053). Patients diagnosed during lockdown were younger and with a lower CHA2DS2-VASc score, while history of cancer, heart failure, and vascular disease were more prevalent. During lockdown, 30 (5.3%) patients with new-onset AF suffered an ischaemic stroke and 15 (2.7%) died, compared with 45 (4.3%) and 14 (1.3%) patients during the corresponding 2019 period, respectively. The adjusted odds ratio of a related event (ischaemic stroke or all-cause death) during lock-down compared with the corresponding weeks was 1.41 (95% CI 0.93–2.12). Conclusions Following a national lockdown in Denmark, a 47% drop in registered new-onset AF cases was observed. In the event of prolonged or subsequent lockdowns, the risk of undiagnosed AF patients developing complications could potentially translate into poorer outcomes in patients with AF during the COVID-19 pandemic., Graphical Abstract Graphical Abstract

Background Recent studies have highlighted a high incidence of heart failure (HF) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), but it remains unclear how the development of HF affects prognosis compared to other T2D complications. Purpose To estimate the risk of death associated with the development of HF compared to ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), stroke, and peripheral artery disease (PAD). Methods Incident T2D patients were identified in the period between 1998–2015, as all patients redeeming a first-time prescription of non-insulin glucose-lowering medication through Danish nationwide registers. Patients with a history of T2D complications and patients Results A total of 153,403 patients with incident T2D (median age 64 years [interquartile range (IQR):55; 72] and 54% males) were included and followed for a median of 7.4 years (IQR: 4.3; 11.5). During follow-up, 48,087 (31%) patients died. Among the patients who survived, the following number of T2D complications were present at landmark year one vs. ten: HF: 1030 (0.7%) vs. 1082 (2.2%), IHD: 3622 (2.4%) vs. 6354 (12.6%), CKD: 905 (0.6%) vs. 2084 (4.1%), stroke: 1446 (1.0%) vs. 2387 (4.7%) and PAD: 1122 (0.8%) vs. 1517 (3.0%). HF posed the most unfavorable prognosis compared to other T2D complications (see figure). The 5-year risk of death associated with HF development one, five and ten years after T2D diagnosis was: 46.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 43.5; 50.3), 47.6 (95% CI: 44.8; 50.3) and 41.8 (95% CI: 38.0; 45.7) respectively. The 5-year risk ratios of death associated with HF development during one, five and ten years after T2D diagnosis compared with T2D patients free of complications was: 3.2 (95% CI, 3.2; 3.3), 3.0 (95% CI 2.9; 3.1) and 2.2 (95% CI, 2.1; 2.2), respectively. Conclusion While IHD was the most common complication at each landmark year, developing HF was associated with the highest risk of death compared to the other T2D complications.

Background Reflecting recent clinical trial findings, updated type 2 diabetes (T2D) guidelines recommend targeting SGLT2 inhibitors at patients at risk of heart failure (HF)-related events and GLP-1 receptor agonists at those at greater risk of atherosclerotic events. However, which cardiovascular disease phenotype in patients with T2D is more predictive of one or other type of these events is unclear. Purpose To estimate the risk of HF-related events and atherosclerotic events, according to background cardiovascular phenotype, in patients with T2D. Methods Patients with T2D and new-onset cardiovascular disease were identified using Danish health care registers (period 1995 to 2015). Patients were divided in four groups based on the primary type of cardiovascular disease: 1) HF, 2) ischemic heart disease (IHD), 3) ischemic stroke, and 4) peripheral artery disease (PAD). The absolute 5-year risks of the subsequent event, either a HF-related event or an atherosclerotic event (IHD, ischemic stroke and PAD), and the associated risk of death, were compared across the four groups. The Aalen-Johansen estimator was used to account for censoring, the competing risk of HF and atherosclerotic events, respectively, and death. Results We included 37,850 patients with T2D and new-onset cardiovascular disease. Median age was 70 years and 40% were female. Patients with HF were at higher risk of readmission for HF (18.1%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 17.2–19.0) than of an atherosclerotic event (14.2%; 13.4–15.0) (Figure). Patients with IHD were at higher risk of a new atherosclerotic event (23.5%; 22.8.-24.2) than of developing HF (9.3%; 8.9–9.8), although the risk of HF was still substantial. Conversely, patients with ischemic stroke were at low risk of HF (3.3%; 2.9–3.8) and higher risk of an atherosclerotic event (16.9%; 95% CI: 16.0–17.7). Patients with PAD had the lowest risk of HF (3.1%; 95% CI: 2.8–3.4) and the highest risk of an atherosclerotic event (35.0%; 95% CI: 33.4–36.7). Compared to a new atherosclerotic event, developing HF was associated with a higher 1-year risk of death (16.0%; 95% CI: 14.7–17.3 versus 33.0%; 95% CI: 31.8–34.2) amongst all patients. Cumulative incidence of first new event Conclusions In T2D, a patient's history of cardiovascular disease was predictive of type of subsequent cardiovascular event. While history of ischemic stroke and PAD were associated with a high risk of future atherosclerotic events, and low risk of HF, patients with IHD were at substantial risk of both types of event. Conversely, while history of HF was most predictive of future HF events, the risk of atherosclerotic events in patients with HF was also high. Our findings may help determine which type of therapy T2D patients with a particular cardiovascular disease history might benefit from – SGLT2 inhibitors, GLP-1 receptor agonists or potentially both. Acknowledgement/Funding Mariam Elmegaard Malik was funded by a research grant from Department of Cardiology, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital.

BACKGROUND: Prevalent diabetes at the time of heart failure (HF) diagnosis is associated with a higher risk of death, but the incidence and prognostic importance of new-onset diabetes in patients with established HF remains unknown.METHODS: Patients with a first hospitalization for HF in the period 2003-2014 were included and stratified according to history of diabetes. Annual incidence rates of new-onset diabetes were calculated and time-dependent multivariable Cox regression models were used to compare the risk of death in patients with prevalent and new-onset diabetes with patients without diabetes as reference. The model was adjusted for age, sex, duration of HF, educational level and comorbidity. Covariates were continuously updated throughout follow-up.RESULTS: A total of 104,522 HF patients were included in the study, of which 21,216 (19%) patients had diabetes at baseline, and 8164 (10%) developed new-onset diabetes during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. Patients with new-onset diabetes and prevalent diabetes were slightly younger than patients without diabetes (70 vs. 74 and 77, respectively), more likely to be men (62% vs. 60% and 54%), and had more comorbidities expect for ischemic heart disease, hypertension and chronic kidney disease which were more prevalent among patients with prevalent diabetes. Incidence rates of new-onset diabetes increased from around 2 per 100 person-years in the first years following HF hospitalization up to 3 per 100 person-years after 5 years of follow-up. A total of 61,424 (59%) patients died during the study period with event rates per 100 person-years of 21.5 for new-onset diabetes, 17.9 for prevalent diabetes and 13.9 for patients without diabetes. Compared to patients without diabetes, new-onset diabetes was associated with a higher risk of death (adjusted HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.42-1.52) and prevalent diabetes was associated with an intermediate risk (HR 1.19; 95% CI, 1.16-1.21).CONCLUSION: Following the first HF hospitalization, the incidence of new-onset diabetes was around 2% per year, rising to 3% after 5 years of follow-up. New-onset diabetes was associated with an increased risk of death, compared to HF patients with prevalent diabetes (intermediate risk) and HF patients without diabetes.

Background Whether there is an association between sleep apnea ( SA ) and the risk of developing heart failure ( HF ) is unclear. Furthermore, it has never been established whether continuous positive airway pressure ( CPAP ) therapy can prevent development of HF . We aimed to investigate SA patients’ risk of developing HF and the association of CPAP therapy. Methods and Results Using nationwide databases, the entire Danish population was followed from 2000 until 2012. patients with SA receiving and not receiving CPAP therapy were identified and compared with the background population. The primary end point was first‐time hospital contact for HF and adjusted incidence rate ratios of HF were calculated using Poisson regression models. Among 4.9 million individuals included, 40 485 developed SA during the study period (median age: 53.4 years, 78.5% men) of whom 45.2% received CPAP therapy. Crude rates of HF were increased in all patients with SA relative to the background population. In the adjusted model, the incidence rate ratios of HF were increased in the untreated SA patients of all ages, compared with the background population. Comparing the CPAP ‐treated patients with SA with the untreated patients with SA showed significantly lower incidence rate ratios of HF among older patients. Conclusions In this nationwide cohort study, SA not treated with CPAP was associated with an increased risk of HF in patients of all ages. Use of CPAP therapy was associated with a lower risk of incident HF in patients >60 years of age, suggesting a protective effect of CPAP therapy in the elderly.

Prevalent diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with higher risk of death and recurrent heart failure hospitalization (HFH) in patients with HF. However, little is known about the prognosis in HF patients developing DM after HF diagnosis. We examined the risk of death and HFH in HF patients with

A patient who does not regain full consciousness after coma is typically classified as being in a vegetative state or a minimally conscious state. While the key determinants in this differential diagnosis are inferred uniquely from the observed behaviour of the patient, nothing can, in principle, be known about the patient’s awareness of the external world. Given the subjective nature of current diagnostic practice, the quest for neurophysiological markers that could complement the nosology of the coma spectrum is becoming more and more acute. We here present a method for the classification of patients based on electrophysiological responses using Bayesian model selection. We validate the method in a sample of fourteen patients with a clinical disorder of consciousness (DoC) and a control group of fifteen healthy adults. By formally comparing a set of alternative hypotheses about the nosology of DoC patients, the results of our validation study show that we can disambiguate between alternative models of how patients are classified. Although limited to this small sample of patients, this allowed us to assert that there is no evidence of subgroups when looking at the MMN response in this sample of patients. We believe that the methods presented in this article are an important contribution to testing alternative hypotheses about how patients are grouped at both the group and single-patient level and propose that electrophysiological responses, recorded invasively or non-invasively, may be informative for the nosology of the coma spectrum on a par with behavioural diagnosis.