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The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50–80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65–90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

BACKGROUND: We examined fidelity and feasibility of implementation of COVID-19 preventive measures in schools, and explored associations between adherence to these measures and staff well-being, to inform policy on sustainable implementation and staff wellbeing. METHODS: Surveys were conducted across 128 schools in England with 107 headteachers and 2698 staff-members with reference to autumn term 2020, examining school-level implementation of preventive measures, adherence, and teacher burnout (response rates for headteacher and staff surveys were 84% and 59%, respectively). RESULTS: The median number of measures implemented in primary and secondary schools was 33 (range 23-41), and 32 (range 22-40), respectively; most measures presented challenges. No differences were found regarding number of measures implemented by school-level socio-economic disadvantage. High adherence was reported for staff wearing face-coverings, staff regularly washing their hands, (secondary only) desks facing forwards, and (primary only) increased cleaning of surfaces and student hand-washing. Adherence to most measures was reported as higher in primary than secondary schools. Over half of school leaders and 42% (517/1234) of other teaching staff suffered from high emotional exhaustion. Higher teacher-reported school-wide adherence with measures was consistently associated with lower burnout for leaders and other teaching staff. CONCLUSIONS: Findings indicate a tremendous effort in implementing preventive measures and an urgent need to support investments in improving teacher wellbeing.

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50–80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65–90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these’.

We examined the feasibility of implementing preventive measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 105 English primary schools in summer 2020 via a survey and interviews with headteachers. High rates of implementation of most recommended measures were noted with the exception of requiring 2 m distance for students, fitting hand sanitizers in classrooms and introducing one-way systems in school corridors. Measures such as regular handwashing and stopping assemblies were considered easy to implement. Majorly challenging measures included distancing between individuals (for students: 51%, N = 99; for staff: 34%; N = 98; for parents: 26%, N = 100), spacing out desks (34%, N = 99), keeping same staff assigned to each student group (33%, N = 97) and staggering break times (25%, N = 99). Rapid implementation was facilitated by staff commitment and communication among stakeholders, but hampered by limitations with guidance received, physical environments, resources, parental adherence and balancing preventive measures with learning. Difficulties with distancing for younger children suggest that smaller bubbles with fewer distancing requirements within these may be a policy option. Schools require further financial, human resource and other support for effective implementation of preventive measures.

Background Following the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in late 2020 and the emergence of the new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, B.1.1.7, a third national lockdown was imposed from January 5, 2021. Following the decline of COVID-19 cases over the remainder of January 2021, it is important to assess the conditions under which reopening schools from early March is likely to lead to resurgence of the epidemic. This study models the impact of a partial national lockdown with social distancing measures enacted in communities and workplaces under different strategies of reopening schools from March 8, 2021 and compares it to the impact of continual full national lockdown remaining until April 19, 2021. Methods We used our previously published model, Covasim, to model the emergence of B.1.1.7 over September 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021. We extended the model to incorporate the impacts of the roll-out of a two-dose vaccine against COVID-19, assuming 200,000 daily doses of the vaccine in people 75 years or older with vaccination that offers 95% reduction in disease acquisition and 10% reduction of transmission blocking. We used the model, calibrated until January 25, 2021, to simulate the impact of a full national lockdown (FNL) with schools closed until April 19, 2021 versus four different partial national lockdown (PNL) scenarios with different elements of schooling open: 1) staggered PNL with primary schools and exam-entry years (years 11 and 13) returning on March 8, 2021 and the rest of the schools years on March 15, 2020; 2) full-return PNL with both primary and secondary schools returning on March 8, 2021; 3) primary-only PNL with primary schools and exam critical years (Y11 and Y13) going back only on March 8, 2021 with the rest of the secondary schools back on April 19, 2021 and 4) part-Rota PNL with both primary and secondary schools returning on March 8, 2021 with primary schools remaining open continuously but secondary schools on a two-weekly rota-system with years alternating between a fortnight of face-to-face and remote learning until April 19, 2021. Across all scenarios, we projected the number of new daily cases, cumulative deaths and effective reproduction number R until April 30, 2020. Results Our calibration across different scenarios is consistent with the new variant B.1.1.7 being around 60% more transmissible. Strict social distancing measures, i.e. national lockdowns, are required to contain the spread of the virus and control the hospitalisations and deaths during January and February 2021. The national lockdown will reduce the number of cases by early March levels similar to those seen in October with R also falling and remaining below 1 during the lockdown. Infections start to increase when schools open but if other parts of society remain closed this resurgence is not sufficient to bring R above 1. Reopening primary schools and exam critical years only or having primary schools open continuously with secondary schools on rotas will lead to lower increases in cases and R than if all schools open. Under the current vaccination assumptions and across the set of scenarios considered, R would increase above 1 if society reopens simultaneously, simulated here from April 19, 2021. Findings Our findings suggest that stringent measures are necessary to mitigate the increase in cases and bring R below 1 over January and February 2021. It is plausible that a PNL with schools partially open from March 8, 2021 and the rest of the society remaining closed until April 19, 2021 may keep R below 1, with some increase evident in infections compared to continual FNL until April 19, 2021. Reopening society in mid-April, with the vaccination strategy we model, could push R above 1 and induce a surge in infections, but the effect of vaccination may be able to control this in future depending on the transmission blocking properties of the vaccines.

OBJECTIVES: SELPHI (HIV Self-Testing Public Health Intervention) is the largest randomized controlled trial (RCT) of HIV self-testing (HIVST) in a high-income setting to date, and has recruited 10 000 men who have sex with men (cis- and transgender) and transgender women who have sex with men. This qualitative substudy aimed to explore how those utilizing self-tests experience HIVST and the implications for further intervention development and scale-up. This is the first qualitative study in Europe investigating experiences of HIVST among intervention users, and the first globally examining the experience of using blood-based HIVST. METHODS: Thirty-seven cisgender MSM SELPHI participants from across England and Wales were purposively recruited to the substudy, in which semi-structured interviews were used to explore testing history, HIVST experiences and intervention preferences. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed through a framework analysis. RESULTS: Men accessed the intervention because HIVST reduced barriers related to convenience, stigma and privacy concerns. Emotional responses had direct links to acceptability. Supportive intervention components increased engagement with testing and addressed supportive concerns. HIVST facilitated more frequent testing, with the potential to reduce sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening frequency. Substudy participants with an HIV-positive result (n = 2) linked to care promptly and reported very high acceptability. Minor adverse outcomes (n = 2; relationship discord and fainting) did not reduce acceptability. Ease of use difficulties were with the lancet and the test processing stage. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention components shaped acceptability, particularly in relation to overcoming a perceived lack of support. The intervention was broadly acceptable and usable; participants expressed an unexpected degree of enthusiasm for HIVST, including those with HIV-positive results and individuals with minor adverse outcomes.

Analysis of human movement providessystematic and quantitative information of movement. The detection of eventsthat occur during walking allows for the calculation of spatiotemporalparameters, commonly used for the characterization of gait. A method for visualdetection of gait events was previously evaluated, showing promising results.The method should now be used in the clinical setting for estimation of gaitparameters and symmetry. The aims of this study were then to compare theperformance of the visual method in a clinical setting against its performancein a gait laboratory and to evaluate its behavior for calculation of gaitsymmetry in eight healthy subjects. Two gait events were detected and sixtemporal parameters (TP) were calculated. Also, a symmetry index (SI) wascalculated for three TP. Results for the calculation of TP in the clinicalsetting were comparable to those obtained in the gait laboratory. Also, thevalues of TP and symmetry were within the range of those reported by otherauthors. These results suggest that the visual events detection method can beconsidered as an option for basic Analysis of Human Movement in the clinicalenvironment. Fil: de Grucci, Carla. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina Fil: Bonell, C. E.. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos; Argentina Fil: Dutto, César Ignacio. Hospital Integral del Discapacitado Dr. Vera Candioti; Argentina Fil: Barrera, Verónica. Hospital Integral del Discapacitado Dr. Vera Candioti; Argentina Fil: Bernal, Cecilia. Hospital Integral del Discapacitado Dr. Vera Candioti; Argentina Fil: Catalfamo Formento, Paola Andrea Lucia. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Instituto de Investigación y Desarrollo en Bioingeniería y Bioinformática - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Investigación y Desarrollo en Bioingeniería y Bioinformática; Argentina