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Purpose: This paper aims to present the case for critical realism (CR) as a framework in steering the anticipatory and participatory activities an appropriate analysis of complex problems, aiming toward a transformative change. Design/methodology/approach: Through observation, interview and facilitation for Circular Design Lab and Thai Clean Air Network, this paper unpacks their foresight activities, their key findings and subsequently connects to the Morphogenesis analysis based on an alternative foresight epistemology of CR. Findings: Foresight based on CR philosophy provides a deeper understanding of the complexity and invisibility of air pollution issues in Thailand. Acknowledging the transitive reality beyond this study's perception, the activity design applies the iceberg models to investigate problem framing and illustrate the stratified reality in three domains: the empirical based on emission reports and legislative regulations; the actual based on patterns of farmers practice and industrial development, activated by causal mechanisms; the real based on structural and mental models, driven by cultural and belief systems in Thailand. At the bottom layer of the iceberg, the real lies the generative mechanisms of pre-existing structural and cultures that constrain Thai citizen from acting on social change. Research limitations/implications: CR's emancipatory theory provides an immanent critique towards social improvement by illustrating comprehensive causal explanations of complex problems such as air pollution; while morphogenesis theory elaborates on the unconscious domination of the existing social structures, agencies, and cultures. Thus, the ethical inquiry of CR research is committed to the emancipation of false beliefs and creating conditions for "human prosperity". However, this non-neutral value commitment is debated in the futures studies field. Practical implications: The anticipatory activities on air pollution in Thailand bring to light the reality of power and oppression beyond human perception and illustrate the connection to the belief systems and its consequential action or lack thereof in dealing with the issues. The insight to power relationship provides an unconventional way to empower citizens in creating transformative change. Originality/value: Modern foresight practice has developed under western cultures and societies. Recent efforts are made to investigate the epistemology underlying this field, for the future issues are ever more complex and interrelated across multiple sectors. This requires this study's consideration of the meaning of knowledge and knowing, influencing the research paradigm. This paper proposes CR as a suitable foresight approach to emancipate this study from the widely accepted epistemologies and examine this study's presupposition about social reality by a philosophical explanation based on the elements of ontology, causation, structure and persons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What alternatives can be imagined for the future of medical care in Thailand? The aim of this research is to draw lessons from the shortages in the healthcare workforce during the Covid-19 pandemic by analyzing these shortages using Critical Realism philosophy. Using retroduction as a methodology, this article explains how the causal links of the trends, individually and collectively, impact structure, agency and culture—enabling responses to healthcare policy. The results portray the continuous interaction and impact of structure, agency and culture, and highlight their tendential powers in saving Thai citizen during the health crisis. The results also provide insights into the context of institutions, organizations, and individuals for future plans and strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What approach should one choose to practice foresight and how should this approach be framed? Previous studies have proposed empiricism, constructivism, post-structuralism, and pragmatism as the core approaches. Critical realism, however, seems to be neglected, especially in its key element of intransitive reality, which can be explicated in both concrete and abstract senses. Its absence is important to the Global South, where injustice and authoritarian control influence the future of society. In order to illustrate the potential of critical realism, this article draws lessons from foresight practice in Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]