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openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra The importance of green water (moisture from rain stored in soils) for global food and water security is widely recognized, with process-based simulation models and field-level studies demonstrating its role in supporting rainfed agriculture. Despite this evidence, the relationship between green water anomalies and rainfed agriculture has not yet been investigated using statistical models that identify a causal relationship between the variables. Here, we address this gap and use disaggregated statistical regression (panel data analysis) at the 30 arc-min grid level to study the response of observed yields (1982-2010) of four main crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat) to green water anomalies globally over rainfed areas. Dry green water anomalies (1 or 2 standard deviations below long-term average) decrease rainfed crop yields worldwide. This effect is more pronounced for wheat and maize, whose yields decline by 12%-18% and 7%-12% respectively. Globally, agricultural production benefits from wet green water anomalies. This effect is intensified in arid climates and weakened in humid climates where, for wheat, soybean and rice, periods of green water availability 2 standard deviations above long-term averages lead to declines in crop yield. This confirms existing evidence that excess soil moisture is detrimental to crop yield. These findings (1) advance our understanding of the impact of green water on rainfed food production and (2) provide empirical evidence supporting arguments for better management of local green water resources to reduce the impact of agricultural drought and waterlogging on rainfed crop production and capture the yield increasing effects of positive green water anomalies.

Un pianeta più caldo significa ghiacciai che si sciolgono, piogge meno prevedibili, alluvioni più frequenti, deserti che avanzano. Nell’acqua vediamo gli effetti del riscaldamento globale e la probabile causa di guerre future. Oro blu, in nove storie da tutto il mondo, dalla Sicilia al Bangladesh, dall’Olanda al Brasile, ci fa scoprire come l’acqua si intrecci all’economia, alla storia, alla cultura e alla vita di ciascuno di noi. -- 1. Con l'acqua alla gola -- 2. Star fra le due acque -- 3. Acqua viva -- 4. Tirare acqua al proprio mulino -- 5. Acqua che scorre non porta veleno -- 6. Pura come l'acqua -- 7. In cattive acque -- 8. Rivali -- 9. Andare contro corrente

Water, energy, and agriculture have been conventionally dealt with separately in investment planning. For each of these sectors, regulatory frameworks, organizations, and infrastructures have been put in place to address sector-specific challenges and demands. As the Middle East and North Africa works towards building a more sustainable future, a nexus approach that considers the risks and synergies among these sectors is needed. To demonstrate the added value of a nexus approach, this report applies scenario analysis and integrated assessment modelling of the water-energy-food nexus to the Middle East and North Africa. The analysis finds that water scarcity increases in all countries in the region over the coming decades, mostly due to growing demands. More importantly, the analysis finds that many countries in the region could run out of fossil groundwater by 2050 unless measures to curb unsustainable abstraction are implemented. The impacts of growing scarcity on agriculture are significant, with production projected to drop by 60 by 2050 in some countries. On the upside, reducing the dependence of the agricultural and energy sectors on water and transitioning to renewable energies can reduce water scarcity, at the same time reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report is targeted to policy makers, the academic community, and a wider global audience interested in exploring the interactions between water, agriculture, and energy.

Analysis of the effects of hydro-climatic variables on economic outcomes helps to inform the design of agricultural and water polices and the economic assessment of climate change impacts. This paper presents an analysis of the multi-sectoral and distributional economic impacts of rainfall shocks in the Awash river basin in Ethiopia. Using novel disaggregated data on crop production, we estimate the direct impacts of rainfall shocks on agriculture and then use a Computable General Equilibrium model to simulate how these rainfall shocks propagate through the wider economy of the basin under three different climate change scenarios. Results are examined by sector and income group. The basin’s economy and expanding agricultural sector are highly vulnerable to the impacts of rainfall shocks. A rainfall decrease scenario could lead to a 5% decline in the basin’s GDP, with agricultural GDP standing to drop by as much as 10%, whilst all sectors benefit from greater rainfall amounts. Distributional impacts depend on location in the basin and type of household, with poor households accruing greater benefits relative to non-poor households under a scenario of additional rainfall and suffering lower income losses under a scenario of rainfall decrease. ispartof: Ecological Economics vol:146 pages:621-632 status: published