Search

Abstract Improved phenotyping in pneumonia is necessary to strengthen risk assessment. Via a feasible and multidimensional approach with basic parameters, we aimed to evaluate the effect of host response at admission on severity stratification in COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Three COVID-19 and one CAP multicenter cohorts including hospitalized patients were recruited. Three easily available variables reflecting different pathophysiologic mechanisms—immune, inflammation, and respiratory—were selected (absolute lymphocyte count [ALC], C-reactive protein [CRP] and, SpO2/FiO2). In-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were analyzed as outcomes. A multivariable, penalized maximum likelihood logistic regression was performed with ALC ( 60 mg/L), and, SpO2/FiO2 (

Background: Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) is a sexually transmitted infection that requires early detection to prevent complications. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of CT among asymptomatic women in Spain and investigate the relationship between CT and risk factors associated with sexual practices, as well as factors such as stress and depression. Results: We found that 3.8% of asymptomatic women tested positive for CT. Our findings suggested that having more than five sexual partners increases the risk of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) by 3.87 times when compared with having fewer partners (p = 0.005, OR: 3.87, 95% CI 1.24–11.65). Additionally, 4.5% of participants admitted to using drugs. We found that there was a slightly higher proportion of anxiety and depression among women who tested positive for CT. Conclusions: We aimed to establish a basis for the implementation of screening in asymptomatic women. Early identification and preventive measures are crucial in minimizing the long-term complications and transmission of the disease. Sexual behavior must be recognized as a risk factor, and women’s psychological well-being should be given top priority as a vital aspect of their sexual health.

Abstract Background Systematic reviews of studies of clinical prediction models are becoming increasingly abundant in the literature. Data extraction and risk of bias assessment are critical steps in any systematic review. CHARMS and PROBAST are the standard tools used for these steps in these reviews of clinical prediction models. Results We developed an Excel template for data extraction and risk of bias assessment of clinical prediction models including both recommended tools. The template makes it easier for reviewers to extract data, to assess the risk of bias and applicability, and to produce results tables and figures ready for publication. Conclusion We hope this template will simplify and standardize the process of conducting a systematic review of prediction models, and promote a better and more comprehensive reporting of these systematic reviews.

Abstract Background The real impact of the degree of association (DoA) between endpoint components of a composite endpoint (CE) on sample size requirement (SSR) has not been explored. We estimate the impact of the DoA between death and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) on SSR of trials using use the CE of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Methods A systematic review and quantitative synthesis of trials that include MACE as the primary outcome through search strategies in MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases. We limited to articles published in journals indexed in the first quartile of the Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems category (Journal Citation Reports, 2015–2020). The authors were contacted to estimate the DoA between death and AMI using joint probability and correlation. We analyzed the SSR variation using the DoA estimated from RCTs. Results Sixty-three of 134 publications that reported event rates and the therapy effect in all component endpoints were included in the quantitative synthesis. The most frequent combination was death, AMI, and revascularization (n = 20; 31.8%). The correlation between death and AMI, estimated from 5 trials¸ oscillated between − 0.02 and 0.31. SSR varied from 14,602 in the scenario with the strongest correlation to 12,259 in the scenario with the weakest correlation; the relative impact was 16%. Conclusions The DoA between death and AMI is highly variable and may lead to a considerable SSR variation in a trial including MACE.

ABSTRACT: Objective: Men have been considered to have a higher incidence of infectious diseases, with controversy over the possibility that sex could influence the prognosis of the infection. This study aimed to explore this assumption in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with septic bacteremia. Methods: A retrospective analysis (2006-2017) of septic patients with microbiologically confirmed bacteremia (n=440) was performed. Risk of ICU and in-hospital mortality in males versus females was compared by univariate analysis and a propensity score analysis integrating their clinical characteristics. Results: Sepsis more frequently occurred in males (80.2% vs 76.1%) as well as in-hospital (48.0% vs 41.3%) and ICU (39.9% vs 36.5%) mortality. Univariate analyses showed that males had a higher Charlson comorbidity index and worse McCabe prognostic score. However, the propensity score in 296 matched patients demonstrated that females had higher risk of both ICU (OR 1.39; 95% CI 0.89-2.19) and in-hospital mortality (OR 1.18; 95% CI 0.77-1.83), but without statistical significance. Conclusion: Males with sepsis had worse clinical characteristics when admitted to the ICU, but sex had no influence on mortality. These data contribute to helping reduce the sex-dependent gap present in healthcare provision.

Resumen: Introducción: En la actualidad no existe ninguna comparación de la capacidad predictiva de las diferentes escalas específicas de riesgo quirúrgico en endocarditis infecciosa. Objetivo: Comparar la utilidad de las diferentes escalas específicas publicadas. Material y métodos: Estudio observacional, retrospectivo y unicéntrico. Se incluyeron 180 pacientes, en los que se calcularon 10 escalas. Se calculó la mortalidad estimada por cada escala y se comparó con la mortalidad observada, con su estimación a través del intervalo de confianza del 95%. Se valoró la discriminación, por el área bajo la curva ROC (AUC), y la calibración con el test de Homer-Lemeshow (HLt). Resultados: La mortalidad observada fue del 26,82% (IC 95%: 20,74-33,57%). Las escalas STS-EI, De Feo y AEPEI infraestimaron la mortalidad; las escalas de Costa y Endoscore la sobreestimaron. La escala de Costa presentó una baja discriminación y AEPEI demostró una calibración subóptima.En nuestra serie, las escalas que demostraron una estimación precisa fueron: 1) PALSUSE: mortalidad predicha 15-30%, AUC = 0,68 (IC 95%: 0,58-0,76) y HLt p = 0,46; 2) RISK-E score: estima mortalidad 0-30%, AUC = 0,76 (IC 95%: 0,69-0,82) y HLt p = 0,35; 3) SpecificEuroSCORES I y II: mortalidad estimada 30-40%, AUC = 0,76 (IC 95%: 0,69-0,82) y HLt p = 0,42 en I y AUC = 0,74 (IC 95%: 0,66-0,79) con HLt = 0,75 en II; 4) APORTEI: predice mortalidad de 20-40%, AUC = 0,75 (IC 95%: 0,68-0,82) y HLt p = 0,73. Conclusiones: De las 10 escalas analizadas, PALSUSE, RISK-E, SpecificEuroSCORE y APORTEI demostraron una predicción de mortalidad precisa y una adecuada capacidad predictiva en el postoperatorio inmediato de cirugía cardiaca por endocarditis infecciosa. Abstract: Introduction: A direct comparison among specific endocarditis risk scores has not yet been conducted. Objective: Compare the previously published endocarditis specific scores and analyze their prognostic accuracy. Material and methods: We performed an observational single-center and retrospective study. 180 patients were included, and 10 specific risk scores were calculated. Estimated mortality was calculated for each score and it was compared with the observed mortality, with its 95% confidence interval estimation. Discrimination was assessed by area under the ROC curve (AUC) and calibration was assessed by Homer-Lemeshow test (HLt). Results: Observed surgical mortality was 26.82% (95% CI: 20.74-33.57). STS-EI, De Feo and AEPEI scores underestimated mortality, whereas Costa score and Endoscore overestimated mortality. Costa score demonstrated a low discrimination (AUC = 0.65, 95% CI 0.57-0.72) and AEPEI showed a suboptimal calibration (P = .025). Results: showed an accurate estimated mortality in: 1) PALSUSE showed predicted mortality to be between 15-30%, AUC = 0.68 (95% CI: 0.58-0.76) and HLt P = .46; 2) RISK-E score estimated a mortality of 0-30%, AUC = 0.76 (95% CI: 0.69-0.82) and HLt P = .35; 3) SpecificEuroSCORES I y II with an estimated mortality of 30-40%, AUC = 0,76 (95% CI: 0,69-0,82) y HLt P = .42 for SpecificEuroSCORES I and AUC = 0.74 (95% CI: 0,66-0,79) con HLt = 0,75 in SpecificEuroSCORES II; 4) APORTEI showed predicted mortality to be between 20 and 40%, with AUC = 0.75 (95% CI: 0.68-0.82) and HLt P = .73. Conclusion: Among the 10 assessed endocarditis specific scores scores, PALSUSE, RISK-E, SpecificEuroSCORE and APORTEI demonstrated an optimal mortality risk estimation and an adequate predictive capacity for postoperative mortality in the postoperative period after cardiac surgery for infective endocarditis.

BackgroundOnly very few studies have investigated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the pre-hospital stroke code protocol. During the first wave, Spain was one of the most affected countries by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus disease pandemic. This health catastrophe overshadowed other pathologies, such as acute stroke, the leading cause of death among women and the leading cause of disability among adults. Any interference in the stroke code protocol can delay the administration of reperfusion treatment for acute ischemic strokes, leading to a worse patient prognosis. We aimed to compare the performance of the stroke code during the first wave of the pandemic with the same period of the previous year.MethodsThis was a multicentre interrupted time-series observational study of the cohort of stroke codes of SUMMA 112 and of the ten hospitals with a stroke unit in the Community of Madrid. We established two groups according to the date on which they were attended: the first during the dates with the highest daily cumulative incidence of the first wave of the COVID-19 (from February 27 to June 15, 2020), and the second, the same period of the previous year (from February 27 to June 15, 2019). To assess the performance of the stroke code, we compared each of the pre-hospital emergency service time periods, the diagnostic accuracy (proportion of stroke codes with a final diagnosis of acute stroke out of the total), the proportion of patients treated with reperfusion therapies, and the in-hospital mortality.ResultsSUMMA 112 activated the stroke code in 966 patients (514 in the pre-pandemic group and 452 pandemic). The call management time increased by 9% (95% CI: -0.11; 0.91; p value = 0.02), and the time on scene increased by 12% (95% CI: 2.49; 5.93; p value = ConclusionsDuring the first wave, a prolongation of the time "on the scene" of the management of the 112 calls, and of the hospital admission was observed. Prehospital diagnostic accuracy and the proportion of patients treated at the hospital level with intravenous thrombolysis or mechanical thrombectomy were not altered with respect to the previous year, showing the resilience of the stroke network and the emergency medical service.

Abstract Background The objective of this study was to develop models for predicting the evolution of a neck pain (NP) episode. Methods Three thousand two hundred twenty-five acute and chronic patients seeking care for NP, were recruited consecutively in 47 health care centers. Data on 37 variables were gathered, including gender, age, employment status, duration of pain, intensity of NP and pain referred down to the arm (AP), disability, history of neck surgery, diagnostic procedures undertaken, imaging findings, clinical diagnosis, and treatments used. Three separate multivariable logistic regression models were developed for predicting a clinically relevant improvement in NP, AP and disability at 3 months. Results Three thousand one (93.5%%) patients attended follow-up. For all the models calibration was good. The area under the ROC curve was ≥0.717 for pain and 0.664 for disability. Factors associated with a better prognosis were: a) For all the outcomes: pain being acute (vs. chronic) and having received neuro-reflexotherapy. b) For NP: nonspecific pain (vs. pain caused by disc herniation or spinal stenosis), no signs of disc degeneration on imaging, staying at work, and being female. c) For AP: nonspecific NP and no signs of disc degeneration on imaging. d) For disability: staying at work and no signs of facet joint degeneration on imaging. Conclusions A prospective registry can be used for developing valid predictive models to quantify the odds that a given patient with NP will experience a clinically relevant improvement.

Subnational governments entering the international arena through lobbying may be a turning point in global governance, but numerous challenges remain at regional level. This paper charts a municipal geography of the planet that is strongly conditioned by its capacity to respond to the dynamics of urbanisation and rural depopulation, and reflects on the need to structure more representative, supportive regional governance. With the global implementation of the 2030 Agenda focussing on the ability of local governments to institutionalise the “right to the city” and “leave no one behind”, the regional level becomes the ground in which territorial intermediation can help germinate the right to “leave no municipality behind”.

This paper synthesizes the main lines of work boosted in recent years by the UNESCO Chair in Intermediary Cities of the University of Lleida, with the aim to highlighting the relevance of an intermediary city that is the majority in the world's urban geography. It also plays a key role in the relationship between urban and rural areas. Aspects such as intermediation and territorial cohesion, human scale and local governance reinforce the idea of the intermediate city as a new paradigm in the global urbanization process, and as a key element in the implementation at local level of the 2030 Agenda.

Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) affects outcomes of mothers and their offspring. This systematic review collated the worldwide literature on the prevalence rates of different types of IPV in pregnancy.Methods: Two reviewers independently identified cross sectional and cohort studies of IPV prevalence in pregnancy in online databases (PubMed, WOS and Scopus), selected and extracted data [participants' country, study quality, measurement tool (validation and purpose) and rates of IPV in pregnancy]. We considered a high quality study if it had a prospective design, an adequate sampling method, a sample size estimation, a response rate > 90%, a contemporary ascertainment of IPV in the index pregnancy, and a well-developed detailed IPV tool. We performed random effects meta-analysis and explored reasons for heterogeneity of rates.Results: One hundred fifty-five studies were included, of which 44 (28%) met two-thirds of the quality criteria. Worldwide prevalence of physical (126 studies, 220,462 participants), psychological (113 studies, 189,630 participants) and sexual (98 studies, 155,324 participants) IPV in pregnancy was 9.2% (95% CI 7.7–11.1%, I2 95.9%), 18.7% (15.1–22.9%, I2 98.2%), 5.5% (4.0–7.5%, I2 93.4%), respectively. Where several types of IPV were reported combined, the prevalence of any kind of IPV (118 studies, 124,838 participants) was 25.0% (20.3, 30.5%, I2 98.6%). IPV rates varied within and between continents, being the highest in Africa and the lowest in Europe (p < 0.001). Rates also varied according to measurement purpose, being higher for diagnosis than for screening, in physical (p = 0.022) and sexual (p = 0.014) IPV.Conclusions: IPV prevalence in pregnancy varies across countries, with one-quarter of mothers exposed on average globally. Routine systematic antenatal detection should be applied worldwide.Systematic Review Registration: identifier: CRD42020176131.

Introduction Gestational diabetes (GDM) is a common yet highly heterogeneous condition. The ability to calculate the absolute risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes for an individual woman with GDM would allow preventative and therapeutic interventions to be delivered to women at high-risk, sparing women at low-risk from unnecessary care. The Prediction for Risk-Stratified care for women with GDM (PeRSonal GDM) study will develop, validate and evaluate the clinical utility of a prediction model for adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with GDM.Methods and analysis We undertook formative research to conceptualise and design the prediction model. Informed by these findings, we will conduct a model development and validation study using a retrospective cohort design with participant data collected as part of routine clinical care across three hospitals. The study will include all pregnancies resulting in births from 1 July 2017 to 31 December 2018 coded for a diagnosis of GDM (estimated sample size 2430 pregnancies). We will use a temporal split-sample development and validation strategy. A multivariable logistic regression model will be fitted. The performance of this model will be assessed, and the validated model will also be evaluated using decision curve analysis. Finally, we will explore modes of model presentation suited to clinical use, including electronic risk calculators.Ethics and dissemination This study was approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of Monash Health (RES-19–0000713 L). We will disseminate results via presentations at scientific meetings and publication in peer-reviewed journals.Trial registration details Systematic review proceeding this work was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42019115223) and the study was registered on the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12620000915954); Pre-results.

BackgroundSeizures are the main cause of maternal death in women with epilepsy, but there are no tools for predicting seizures in pregnancy. We set out to develop and validate a prognostic model, using information collected during the antenatal booking visit, to predict seizure risk at any time in pregnancy and until 6 weeks postpartum in women with epilepsy on antiepileptic drugs.Methods and findingsWe used datasets of a prospective cohort study (EMPiRE) of 527 pregnant women with epilepsy on medication recruited from 50 hospitals in the UK (4 November 2011-17 August 2014). The model development cohort comprised 399 women whose antiepileptic drug doses were adjusted based on clinical features only; the validation cohort comprised 128 women whose drug dose adjustments were informed by serum drug levels. The outcome was epileptic (non-eclamptic) seizure captured using diary records. We fitted the model using LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression, and reported the performance using C-statistic (scale 0-1, values > 0.5 show discrimination) and calibration slope (scale 0-1, values near 1 show accuracy) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We determined the net benefit (a weighted sum of true positive and false positive classifications) of using the model, with various probability thresholds, to aid clinicians in making individualised decisions regarding, for example, referral to tertiary care, frequency and intensity of monitoring, and changes in antiepileptic medication. Seizures occurred in 183 women (46%, 183/399) in the model development cohort and in 57 women (45%, 57/128) in the validation cohort. The model included age at first seizure, baseline seizure classification, history of mental health disorder or learning difficulty, occurrence of tonic-clonic and non-tonic-clonic seizures in the 3 months before pregnancy, previous admission to hospital for seizures during pregnancy, and baseline dose of lamotrigine and levetiracetam. The C-statistic was 0.79 (95% CI 0.75, 0.84). On external validation, the model showed good performance (C-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.66, 0.85; calibration slope 0.93, 95% CI 0.44, 1.41) but with imprecise estimates. The EMPiRE model showed the highest net proportional benefit for predicted probability thresholds between 12% and 99%. Limitations of this study include the varied gestational ages of women at recruitment, retrospective patient recall of seizure history, potential variations in seizure classification, the small number of events in the validation cohort, and the clinical utility restricted to decision-making thresholds above 12%. The model findings may not be generalisable to low- and middle-income countries, or when information on all predictors is not available.ConclusionsThe EMPiRE model showed good performance in predicting the risk of seizures in pregnant women with epilepsy who are prescribed antiepileptic drugs. Integration of the tool within the antenatal booking visit, deployed as a simple nomogram, can help to optimise care in women with epilepsy.

“Economies of agglomeration” have acted as catalysts of the progress and modernisation of many nations in the Global South but have also contributed to unbalancing the territory, widening the gap between urban and rural populations and the accumulation of high environmental and social deficits. In contrast to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), the economies that make up the MINTs (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) have better territorial integration of their urban systems, with intermediate cities that act as “economies of intermediation” with the rural hinterlands, and which could contribute to achieving the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals. The United Nations Habitat iii of October 2016 placed intermediary cities at the heart of the New Urban Agenda. The aim is to promote national urban policies in many of the economies of the Global South, allowing them to strengthen their role as the main instrument of economic integration and regional cohesion.

Summary: Background: Anaemia affects as many as half of all pregnant women in low-income and middle-income countries, but the burden of disease and associated maternal mortality are not robustly quantified. We aimed to assess the association between severe anaemia and maternal death with data from the WHO Multicountry Survey on maternal and newborn health. Methods: We used multilevel and propensity score regression analyses to establish the relation between severe anaemia and maternal death in 359 health facilities in 29 countries across Latin America, Africa, the Western Pacific, eastern Mediterranean, and southeast Asia. Severe anaemia was defined as antenatal or postnatal haemoglobin concentrations of less than 70 g/L in a blood sample obtained before death. Maternal death was defined as death any time after admission until the seventh day post partum or discharge. In regression analyses, we adjusted for post-partum haemorrhage, general anaesthesia, admission to intensive care, sepsis, pre-eclampsia or eclampsia, thrombocytopenia, shock, massive transfusion, severe oliguria, failure to form clots, and severe acidosis as confounding variables. These variables were used to develop the propensity score. Findings: 312 281 women admitted in labour or with ectopic pregnancies were included in the adjusted multilevel logistic analysis, and 12 470 were included in the propensity score regression analysis. The adjusted odds ratio for maternal death in women with severe anaemia compared with those without severe anaemia was 2·36 (95% CI 1·60–3·48). In the propensity score analysis, severe anaemia was also associated with maternal death (adjusted odds ratio 1·86 [95% CI 1·39–2·49]). Interpretation: Prevention and treatment of anaemia during pregnancy and post partum should remain a global public health and research priority. Funding: Barts and the London Charity.

BackgroundThe CD4/CD8 ratio is an indicator of immunosenescence and a predictor of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected patients. The effects of different ART regimens on CD4/CD8 ratio recovery remain unclear.MethodsClinical cohort study of ART-treated patients from the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS). We included ART-naive adults with HIV infection who achieved undetectable HIV RNA during the first 48 weeks of treatment and had additional follow-up 48 weeks after virological suppression (VS). Primary endpoints included increase in CD4/CD8 ratio at both timepoints and secondary endpoints were CD4/CD8 ratio recovery at cut-offs of ≥0.5 or ≥1.0.ResultsOf 3971 subjects who met the study criteria, 1876 started ART with an NNRTI, 1804 with a PI and 291 with an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI). After adjusting for age, sex, race, year of entry, risk group, HCV serostatus, baseline viral load and baseline CD4/CD8 ratio, subjects on an NNRTI showed a significantly greater CD4/CD8 ratio gain compared with those on a PI, either 48 weeks after ART initiation or after 48 weeks of HIV RNA VS. The greater CD4/CD8 ratio improvement in the NNRTI arm was driven by a higher decline in CD8 counts. The INSTI group showed increased rates of CD4/CD8 ratio normalization at the ≥1.0 cut-off compared with the PI group.ConclusionsNNRTI therapy was associated with a greater increase in the CD4/CD8 ratio compared with PIs. NNRTI- and INSTI-based first-line ART were associated with higher rates of CD4/CD8 ratio normalization at a cut-off of 1.0 than a PI-based regimen, which might have clinical implications.

Background: Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) is a sexually transmitted infection that requires early detection to prevent complications. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of CT among asymptomatic women in Spain and investigate the relationship between CT and risk factors associated with sexual practices, as well as factors such as stress and depression. Results: We found that 3.8% of asymptomatic women tested positive for CT. Our findings suggested that having more than five sexual partners increases the risk of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) by 3.87 times when compared with having fewer partners (p = 0.005, OR: 3.87, 95% CI 1.24–11.65). Additionally, 4.5% of participants admitted to using drugs. We found that there was a slightly higher proportion of anxiety and depression among women who tested positive for CT. Conclusions: We aimed to establish a basis for the implementation of screening in asymptomatic women. Early identification and preventive measures are crucial in minimizing the long-term complications and transmission of the disease. Sexual behavior must be recognized as a risk factor, and women's psychological well-being should be given top priority as a vital aspect of their sexual health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In South Asia, studies show secular trends toward slightly later women's marriage and first reproduction. However, data on related biological and social events, such as menarche and age of coresidence with husband, are often missing from these analyses. We assessed generational trends in key life events marking the transition to womanhood in rural lowland Nepal. Methods: We used data on 110 co‐resident mother‐in‐law (MIL) and daughter‐in‐law (DIL) dyads. We used paired t‐tests and chi‐squared tests to evaluate generational trends in women's education, and mean age at menarche, marriage, cohabitation with husband, and first reproduction of MIL and DIL dyads. We examined norms held by MILs and DILs on a daughter's life opportunities. Results: On average, MIL was 29 years older than DIL (60 years vs. 31 years). Both groups experienced menarche at average age 13.8 years. MIL was married at average 12.4 years, before menarche, and cohabitated with husbands at average 14.8 years. DIL was simultaneously married and cohabitated with husbands after menarche, at average 15 years. DIL was marginally more educated than MIL but had their first child on average 0.8 years earlier (95% CI −1.4, −0.1). MIL and DIL held similar norms on daughters' education and marriage. Conclusion: While social norms remain similar, the meaning of "early marriage" and use of menarche in marriage decisions has changed in rural lowland Nepal. Compared to DIL, MIL who was married earlier transitioned to womanhood more gradually. However, DIL was still married young, and had an accelerated trajectory to childbearing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]