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Marine heatwaves are intensifying under climate change, exposing populations of reef-building corals to mass mortality and intense selective pressure. It remains unknown whether adaptation can keep pace with warming and maintain reef functioning. We have developed an eco-evolutionary metapopulation model for Acropora, an ecologically important yet thermally sensitive coral taxon. We found that, although corals have some adaptation capacity, they will suffer severe heatwave-induced declines over the coming decades. For a future in which emissions lead to ~3°C of global warming, natural selection could allow populations to persist, albeit in severely depleted states with elevated extinction risk and potential loss of ecosystem functioning. Yet, for thermally sensitive coral populations to thrive beyond 2050, there must be rapid reductions of greenhouse gas emissions that limit global warming to 2°C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lewontin's paradox, the observation that levels of genetic diversity (π) do not scale linearly with census population size (Nc) variation, is an evolutionary conundrum. The most extreme mismatches between π and Nc are found for highly abundant marine invertebrates. Yet, the influences of new mutations on π relative to extrinsic processes such as Nc fluctuations are unknown. Here, we provide the first germline mutation rate (μ) estimate for a marine invertebrate in corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster cf. solaris). We use high-coverage whole-genome sequencing of 14 parent-offspring trios alongside empirical estimates of Nc in Australia's Great Barrier Reef to jointly examine the determinants of π in populations undergoing extreme Nc fluctuations. The A. cf. solaris mean μ was 9.13 x 10−09 mutations per-site per-generation (95% CI: 6.51 x 10−09 to 1.18 x 10−08), exceeding estimates for other invertebrates and showing greater concordance with vertebrate mutation rates. Lower-than-expected Ne (~70,000–180,000) and low Ne/Nc values (0.0047–0.048) indicated weak influences of population outbreaks on long-term π. Our findings are consistent with elevated μ evolving in response to reduced Ne and generation time length, with important implications for explaining high mutational loads and the determinants of genetic diversity in marine invertebrate taxa. Author summary: Understanding how levels of genetic diversity levels are maintained in natural populations and their relationship to species abundance is central to many conservation problems. We address this question in ecologically important crown-of-thorns sea stars to advance our understanding about the determinants of genetic diversity in species undergoing extreme population size fluctuations or outbreaks. In this work, we report the first germline mutation rate estimate for a marine invertebrate using whole-genome sequencing of parent-offspring trios. Our results reveal that unexpectedly high mutational contributions and reduced effective population size (stronger genetic drift than predicted by abundance) shape genetic diversity in this species, despite outbreaking populations sizes exceeding 20–90 million individuals. Our results are consistent with theory on mutation rate evolution, whereby elevated mutation rates evolve in response to reduced effective population size or generation time length. Our findings highlight the potential importance of high mutation rates in maintaining extreme deleterious mutational loads observed in marine invertebrate taxa and moderate genetic diversity levels despite population declines. Such fundamental knowledge advances our understanding about the determinants of genetic diversity in large marine populations and is valuable for testing future hypotheses on mutation rate evolution across diverse animal phyla. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crown‐of‐thorns starfish (CoTS) naturally occur on coral reefs throughout the Indo‐Pacific region. On Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), outbreaks of CoTS populations are responsible for ecologically significant losses of corals, and while they have been documented for decades, they now undermine coral recovery from multiple stressors, especially anthropogenic warming. Culling interventions are currently the best approach to control CoTS outbreaks on the GBR, but assessing control effectiveness under multiple stressors is complicated. Using an ensemble of two reef community models simulating the temporal and spatial dynamics of CoTS and corals under future climate scenarios, we evaluate the present‐day and future effectiveness of the current implementation of the GBR CoTS Control Program. Specifically, we determine the culling effort needed (i.e., number of vessels) to achieve the maximum ecological benefits as predicted by the models under possible warming futures. Benefits were measured by comparing projections of coral cover and CoTS densities under scenarios of increasing control effort and baseline scenarios where no control was simulated. Projections of present‐day control efforts (five vessels) show that the number of individual reefs subject to CoTS outbreaks is reduced by 50%–65% annually, yielding a benefit of 5%–7% of healthy GBR coral area per decade, equivalent to gaining 104–150 km2 of live corals by 2035. A threefold increase in current control efforts is sufficient to reach more than 80% of the maximum coral benefits predicted by each model, but the future amount of effort required to control CoTS effectively depends on the intensity of warming and the early detection of CoTS outbreaks. While culling CoTS across the entire GBR is unfeasible, we provide a framework for maximizing ecosystem‐wide benefits of CoTS control and guide management decisions on the required culling effort needed to reduce CoTS outbreaks to levels that may ensure coral persistence in the face of future climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1997/1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was the most severe coral bleaching event in recent history, resulting in the loss of 16 % of the world's coral reefs. Mortality was particularly severe in French Polynesia, where unprecedented mortality of massive Porites was observed in lagoonal sites of Rangiroa Atoll. To assess the recovery of massive Porites 15 years later, we resurveyed the size structure and extent of partial mortality of massive Porites at Tivaru (Rangiroa). Surveys revealed an abundance of massive Porites colonies rising from the shallow lagoonal floor. Colony width averaged 2.65 m, reaching a maximum of 7.1 m (estimated age of ~391 ± 107 years old). The relative cover of recently dead skeleton within quadrats declined from 42.8 % in 1998 to zero in 2013, yet the relative cover of old dead skeleton increased only marginally from 22.1 % in 1998 to 26.1 % in 2013. At a colony level, the proportion of Porites dominated by living tissue increased from 34.9 % in 1998 to 73.9 % in 2013, indicating rapid recovery of recent dead skeleton to living tissue rather than transitioning to old dead skeleton. Such rapid post-bleaching recovery is unprecedented in massive Porites and resulted from remarkable self-regeneration termed the 'Phoenix effect', whereby remnant cryptic patches of tissue that survived the 1997/1998 ENSO event regenerated and rapidly overgrew adjacent dead skeleton. Contrary to our earlier predictions, not only are large massive Porites relatively resistant to stress, they appear to have a remarkable capacity for recovery even after severe partial mortality., Introduction The impact of climate change has resulted in substantial changes to the world's oceans, with an increase in average sea surface temperatures (Lough 2012) and the frequency of extreme [...]

Complex ecological interactions are widely utilized to deliver conservation benefits but their efficacy is often debated. Using a coral reef trophic cascade as an example, we reveal that outcomes can be surprisingly difficult to detect. Even important impacts of marine reserves can go undetected (20% more coral with power < 0.5). This evidentiary challenge is compounded by misinterpretation of "nonsignificant" results as evidence of failed conservation practice. We illustrate a more appropriate analytical approach using a Bayesian Region of Practical Equivalence (ROPE) whereby many tests of conservation practice would be interpreted correctly as "undecided" rather than "negative." Practitioners working with ecological cascades will increasingly be faced with "undecided" evidence of conservation benefits. Since one solution is to consider a wider diversity of evidence, we provide a hierarchy of evidentiary quality. In this way, even reductionist evidence of the component ecological interactions can be utilized, which is far easier to collect and evaluate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) are among the most studied coral reef organisms, owing to their propensity to undergo major population irruptions, which contribute to significant coral loss and reef degradation throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, there are still important knowledge gaps pertaining to the biology, ecology, and management of Acanthaster sp. Renewed efforts to advance understanding and management of Pacific crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) on Australia's Great Barrier Reef require explicit consideration of relevant and tractable knowledge gaps. Drawing on established horizon scanning methodologies, this study identified contemporary knowledge gaps by asking active and/or established crown-of-thorns sea star researchers to pose critical research questions that they believe should be addressed to improve the understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef. A total of 38 participants proposed 246 independent research questions, organized into 7 themes: feeding ecology, demography, distribution and abundance, predation, settlement, management, and environmental change. Questions were further assigned to 48 specific topics nested within the 7 themes. During this process, redundant questions were removed, which reduced the total number of distinct research questions to 172. Research questions posed were mostly related to themes of demography (46 questions) and management (48 questions). The dominant topics, meanwhile, were the incidence of population irruptions (16 questions), feeding ecology of larval sea stars (15 questions), effects of elevated water temperature on crown-of-thorns sea stars (13 questions), and predation on juveniles (12 questions). While the breadth of questions suggests that there is considerable research needed to improve understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef, the predominance of certain themes and topics suggests a major focus for new research while also providing a roadmap to guide future research efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]