Search

Background: Guidelines for sepsis recommend treating those at highest risk within 1 hour. The emergency care system can only achieve this if sepsis is recognised and prioritised. Ambulance services can use prehospital early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to prioritise patients for treatment or early assessment in the emergency department., Objectives: To determine the accuracy, impact and cost-effectiveness of using early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to identify sepsis requiring urgent treatment., Design: Retrospective diagnostic cohort study and decision-analytic modelling of operational consequences and cost-effectiveness., Setting: Two ambulance services and four acute hospitals in England., Participants: Adults transported to hospital by emergency ambulance, excluding episodes with injury, mental health problems, cardiac arrest, direct transfer to specialist services, or no vital signs recorded., Interventions: Twenty-one early warning scores used alongside paramedic diagnostic impression, categorised as sepsis, infection, non-specific presentation, or other specific presentation., Main Outcome Measures: Proportion of cases prioritised at the four hospitals; diagnostic accuracy for the sepsis-3 definition of sepsis and receiving urgent treatment (primary reference standard); daily number of cases with and without sepsis prioritised at a large and a small hospital; the minimum treatment effect associated with prioritisation at which each strategy would be cost-effective, compared to no prioritisation, assuming willingness to pay £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained., Results: Data from 95,022 episodes involving 71,204 patients across four hospitals showed that most early warning scores operating at their pre-specified thresholds would prioritise more than 10% of cases when applied to non-specific attendances or all attendances. Data from 12,870 episodes at one hospital identified 348 (2.7%) with the primary reference standard. The National Early Warning Score, version 2 (NEWS2), had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when applied only to patients with a paramedic diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection (0.756, 95% confidence interval 0.729 to 0.783) or sepsis alone (0.655, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.68). None of the strategies provided high sensitivity (> 0.8) with acceptable positive predictive value (> 0.15). NEWS2 provided combinations of sensitivity and specificity that were similar or superior to all other early warning scores. Applying NEWS2 to paramedic diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection with thresholds of > 4, > 6 and > 8 respectively provided sensitivities and positive predictive values (95% confidence interval) of 0.522 (0.469 to 0.574) and 0.216 (0.189 to 0.245), 0.447 (0.395 to 0.499) and 0.274 (0.239 to 0.313), and 0.314 (0.268 to 0.365) and 0.333 (confidence interval 0.284 to 0.386). The mortality relative risk reduction from prioritisation at which each strategy would be cost-effective exceeded 0.975 for all strategies analysed., Limitations: We estimated accuracy using a sample of older patients at one hospital. Reliable evidence was not available to estimate the effectiveness of prioritisation in the decision-analytic modelling., Conclusions: No strategy is ideal but using NEWS2, in patients with a paramedic diagnostic impression of infection or sepsis could identify one-third to half of sepsis cases without prioritising unmanageable numbers. No other score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2. Research is needed to develop better definition, diagnosis and treatments for sepsis., Study Registration: This study is registered as Research Registry (reference: researchregistry5268)., Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/136/10) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 28, No. 16. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Aim: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia, and is associated with worsening quality of life and complications such as stroke. Previous work showed that 8% of patients develop new-onset AF following colonic resection and highlighted factors that might predict the development of postoperative AF. The development of a new arrhythmia may have a negative effect on longer-term quality of life as well as cancer survivorship. The aim of this study is to accurately quantify the incidence of AF following colorectal cancer surgery and to validate a model to predict its development., Method: The Atrial Fibrillation After Resection (AFAR) study will recruit 720 patients aged 65 or over undergoing resection of colorectal cancer with curative intent. The primary outcome is development of AF within 90 days of surgery. Assessment of cardiac rhythm will be performed using 24-h Holter monitors at baseline, 30 and 90 days after surgery. An electrocardiogram (ECG) will be performed on the day of discharge. Baseline descriptors including model variables and quality of life will be recorded using EQ-5D-5L. The occurrence of complications and other key surgical outcomes will be recorded. An additional blood test for N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) will be performed prior to surgery. Statistical analysis will validate a previously derived model and will test the incremental value of added variables such as NT-proBNP. Finally, an exploratory analysis will assess whether changes in ECG measures between baseline and postoperative ECG can predict subsequent new-onset AF., Conclusion: This study will provide data that may allow us to stratify the risk of developing AF following colorectal cancer surgery. This may inform screening or prophylactic approaches., (© 2020 The Authors. Colorectal Disease published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.)

Objectives: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have been criticized for lacking external validity. We assessed whether a trial in people with type I diabetes mellitus mirrored the wider population and applied sample-weighting methods to assess the impact of differences on our trial's findings., Study Design and Setting: The Relative Effectiveness of Pumps over MDI and Structured Education trial was nested within a large UK cohort capturing demographic, clinical, and quality of life data for people with type I diabetes mellitus undergoing structured diabetes-specific education. We first assessed whether our RCT participants were comparable with this cohort using propensity score modeling. After this, we reweighted the trial population to better match the wider cohort and re-estimated the treatment effect., Results: Trial participants differed from the cohort in regard to sex, weight, HbA1c, and also quality of life and satisfaction with current treatment. Nevertheless, the treatment effects derived from alternative model weightings were similar to that of the original RCT., Conclusion: Our RCT participants differed in composition to the wider population, but the original findings were unaffected by sampling adjustments. We encourage investigators take steps to address criticisms of generalizability but doing so is problematic; external data, even if available, may contain limited information and analyses can be susceptible to model misspecification., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Obesity is a major challenge for people with schizophrenia.AimsWe assessed whether STEPWISE, a theory-based, group structured lifestyle education programme could support weight reduction in people with schizophrenia., Method: In this randomised controlled trial (study registration: ISRCTN19447796), we recruited adults with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder or first-episode psychosis from ten mental health organisations in England. Participants were randomly allocated to the STEPWISE intervention or treatment as usual. The 12-month intervention comprised four 2.5 h weekly group sessions, followed by 2-weekly maintenance contact and group sessions at 4, 7 and 10 months. The primary outcome was weight change after 12 months. Key secondary outcomes included diet, physical activity, biomedical measures and patient-related outcome measures. Cost-effectiveness was assessed and a mixed-methods process evaluation was included., Results: Between 10 March 2015 and 31 March 2016, we recruited 414 people (intervention 208, usual care 206) with 341 (84.4%) participants completing the trial. At 12 months, weight reduction did not differ between groups (mean difference 0.0 kg, 95% CI -1.6 to 1.7, P = 0.963); physical activity, dietary intake and biochemical measures were unchanged. STEPWISE was well-received by participants and facilitators. The healthcare perspective incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £246 921 per quality-adjusted life-year gained., Conclusions: Participants were successfully recruited and retained, indicating a strong interest in weight interventions; however, the STEPWISE intervention was neither clinically nor cost-effective. Further research is needed to determine how to manage overweight and obesity in people with schizophrenia.Declaration of interestR.I.G.H. received fees for lecturing, consultancy work and attendance at conferences from the following: Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Lundbeck, Novo Nordisk, Novartis, Otsuka, Sanofi, Sunovion, Takeda, MSD. M.J.D. reports personal fees from Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Lilly, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca, Janssen, Servier, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation, Takeda Pharmaceuticals International Inc.; and, grants from Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, Janssen. K.K. has received fees for consultancy and speaker for Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Lilly, Servier and Merck Sharp & Dohme. He has received grants in support of investigator and investigator-initiated trials from Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Lilly, Pfizer, Boehringer Ingelheim and Merck Sharp & Dohme. K.K. has received funds for research, honoraria for speaking at meetings and has served on advisory boards for Lilly, Sanofi-Aventis, Merck Sharp & Dohme and Novo Nordisk. D.Sh. is expert advisor to the NICE Centre for guidelines; board member of the National Collaborating Centre for Mental Health (NCCMH); clinical advisor (paid consultancy basis) to National Clinical Audit of Psychosis (NCAP); views are personal and not those of NICE, NCCMH or NCAP. J.P. received personal fees for involvement in the study from a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) grant. M.E.C. and Y.D. report grants from NIHR Health Technology Assessment, during the conduct of the study; and The Leicester Diabetes Centre, an organisation (employer) jointly hosted by an NHS Hospital Trust and the University of Leicester and who is holder (through the University of Leicester) of the copyright of the STEPWISE programme and of the DESMOND suite of programmes, training and intervention fidelity framework that were used in this study. S.R. has received honorarium from Lundbeck for lecturing. F.G. reports personal fees from Otsuka and Lundbeck, personal fees and non-financial support from Sunovion, outside the submitted work; and has a family member with professional links to Lilly and GSK, including shares. F.G. is in part funded by the National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research & Care Funding scheme, by the Maudsley Charity and by the Stanley Medical Research Institute and is supported by the by the Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London.

Background: Obesity is twice as common in people with schizophrenia as in the general population. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance recommends that people with psychosis or schizophrenia, especially those taking antipsychotics, be offered a healthy eating and physical activity programme by their mental health care provider. There is insufficient evidence to inform how these lifestyle services should be commissioned., Objectives: To develop a lifestyle intervention for people with first episode psychosis or schizophrenia and to evaluate its clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, delivery and acceptability., Design: A two-arm, analyst-blind, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial, with a 1 : 1 allocation ratio, using web-based randomisation; a mixed-methods process evaluation, including qualitative case study methods and logic modelling; and a cost-utility analysis., Setting: Ten community mental health trusts in England., Participants: People with first episode psychosis, schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder., Interventions: Intervention group: (1) four 2.5-hour group-based structured lifestyle self-management education sessions, 1 week apart; (2) multimodal fortnightly support contacts; (3) three 2.5-hour group booster sessions at 3-monthly intervals, post core sessions. Control group: usual care assessed through a longitudinal survey. All participants received standard written lifestyle information., Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was change in weight (kg) at 12 months post randomisation. The key secondary outcomes measured at 3 and 12 months included self-reported nutrition (measured with the Dietary Instrument for Nutrition Education questionnaire), objectively measured physical activity measured by accelerometry [GENEActiv (Activinsights, Kimbolton, UK)], biomedical measures, adverse events, patient-reported outcome measures and a health economic assessment., Results: The trial recruited 414 participants (intervention arm: 208 participants; usual care: 206 participants) between 10 March 2015 and 31 March 2016. A total of 341 participants (81.6%) completed the trial. A total of 412 participants were analysed. After 12 months, weight change did not differ between the groups (mean difference 0.0 kg, 95% confidence interval -1.59 to 1.67 kg; p  = 0.964); physical activity, dietary intake and biochemical measures were unchanged. Glycated haemoglobin, fasting glucose and lipid profile were unchanged by the intervention. Quality of life, psychiatric symptoms and illness perception did not change during the trial. There were three deaths, but none was related to the intervention. Most adverse events were expected and related to the psychiatric illness. The process evaluation showed that the intervention was acceptable, with participants valuing the opportunity to interact with others facing similar challenges. Session feedback indicated that 87.2% of participants agreed that the sessions had met their needs. Some indicated the desire for more ongoing support. Professionals felt that the intervention was under-resourced and questioned the long-term sustainability within current NHS settings. Professionals would have preferred greater access to participants' behaviour data to tailor the intervention better. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from the health-care perspective is £246,921 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from the societal perspective is £367,543 per QALY gained., Conclusions: Despite the challenges of undertaking clinical research in this population, the trial successfully recruited and retained participants, indicating a high level of interest in weight management interventions; however, the STEPWISE intervention was neither clinically effective nor cost-effective. Further research will be required to define how overweight and obesity in people with schizophrenia should be managed. The trial results suggest that lifestyle programmes for people with schizophrenia may need greater resourcing than for other populations, and interventions that have been shown to be effective in other populations, such as people with diabetes mellitus, are not necessarily effective in people with schizophrenia., Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19447796., Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 22, No. 65. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information., Competing Interests: Richard IG Holt received fees for lecturing, consultancy work and attendance at conferences from the following companies: Boehringer Ingelheim (Ingelheim am Rhein, Germany), Eli Lilly and Company (Indianapolis, IN, USA), Janssen Pharmaceutica (Beerse, Belgium), Lundbeck (Copenhagen, Denmark), Novo Nordisk (Bagsværd, Denmark), Novartis (Basel, Switzerland), Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd (Tokyo, Japan), Sanofi-Aventis (Paris, France) and Sunovion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Marlborough, MA, USA). Paul French is a member of the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment Mental, Psychological and Occupational Health funding panel. Melanie J Davies and Kamlesh Khunti are members of a NIHR Clinical Trials Unit. Melanie J Davies reports personal fees from Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Eli Lilly and Company, Merck Sharp & Dohme (Kenilworth, NJ, USA), Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca (Cambridge, UK), Janssen Pharmaceutica, Servier Laboratories (Neuilly-sur-Seine, France), Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation (Tokyo, Japan) and Takeda Pharmaceuticals International Inc. (Canton of Zürich, Switzerland) and grants from Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Eli Lilly and Company, Boehringer Ingelheim and Janssen Pharmaceutica. Kamlesh Khunti has received fees for consultancy and being a speaker for Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Eli Lilly and Company, Servier Laboratories and Merck Sharp & Dohme. He has received grants in support of investigator and investigator-initiated trials from Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer (New York, NY, USA), Boehringer Ingelheim and Merck Sharp & Dohme. Kamlesh Khunti has also received funds for research and honoraria for speaking at meetings, and has served on advisory boards for Eli Lilly and Company, Sanofi-Aventis, Merck Sharp & Dohme and Novo Nordisk. David Shiers is an expert advisor to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) centre for guidelines, a board member of the National Collaborating Centre for Mental Health (NCCMH) and a clinical advisor (on a paid consultancy basis) to the National Clinical Audit of Psychosis (NCAP); any views given in this report are personal and not those of NICE, NCCMH or NCAP. David Shiers reports personal fees from the Wiley-Blackwell publication Promoting Recovery in Early Psychosis, 2010 (ISBN 978-1-4051-4894-8), as he is a joint editor in receipt of royalties. John Pendelbury received personal fees for involvement in the study from a NIHR grant; he reports personal fees from the Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS foundation trust outside the submitted work and has published papers in the area of weight management and physical health related to mental health. Marian E Carey and Yvonne Doherty report being employed by the Leicester Diabetes Centre, an organisation (employer) jointly hosted by a NHS hospital trust and the University of Leicester and which is the holder (through the University of Leicester) of the copyright of the STEPWISE programme and of the Diabetes Education and Self-Management for Ongoing and Newly Diagnosed (DESMOND) suite of programmes, training and intervention fidelity framework that were used in this study. Fiona Gaughran reports personal fees from Otsuka and Lundbeck and personal fees and non-financial support from Sunovion, outside the submitted work, and has a family member with professional links to Eli Lilly and Company and GlaxoSmithKline (Brentford, UK), including shares.

Background: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease resulting in death, usually from respiratory failure, within 2-3 years of symptom onset. Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) is a treatment that when given to patients in respiratory failure leads to improved survival and quality of life. Diaphragm pacing (DP), using the NeuRx/4(®) diaphragm pacing system (DPS)™ (Synapse Biomedical, Oberlin, OH, USA), is a new technique that may offer additional or alternative benefits to patients with ALS who are in respiratory failure., Objective: The Diaphragm Pacing in patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (DiPALS) trial evaluated the effect of DP on survival over the study duration in patients with ALS with respiratory failure., Design: The DiPALS trial was a multicentre, parallel-group, open-label, randomised controlled trial incorporating health economic analyses and a qualitative longitudinal substudy., Participants: Eligible participants had a diagnosis of ALS (ALS laboratory-supported probable, clinically probable or clinically definite according to the World Federation of Neurology revised El Escorial criteria), had been stabilised on riluzole for 30 days, were aged ≥ 18 years and were in respiratory failure. We planned to recruit 108 patients from seven UK-based specialist ALS or respiratory centres. Allocation was performed using 1 : 1 non-deterministic minimisation., Interventions: Participants were randomised to either standard care (NIV alone) or standard care (NIV) plus DP using the NeuRX/4 DPS., Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was overall survival, defined as the time from randomisation to death from any cause. Secondary outcomes were patient quality of life [assessed by European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions, three levels (EQ-5D-3L), Short Form questionnaire-36 items and Sleep Apnoea Quality of Life Index questionnaire]; carer quality of life (EQ-5D-3L and Caregiver Burden Inventory); cost-utility analysis and health-care resource use; tolerability and adverse events. Acceptability and attitudes to DP were assessed in a qualitative substudy., Results: In total, 74 participants were randomised into the trial and analysed, 37 participants to NIV plus pacing and 37 to standard care, before the Data Monitoring and Ethics Committee advised initial suspension of recruitment (December 2013) and subsequent discontinuation of pacing (on safety grounds) in all patients (June 2014). Follow-up assessments continued until the planned end of the study in December 2014. The median survival (interquartile range) was 22.5 months (lower quartile 11.8 months; upper quartile not reached) in the NIV arm and 11.0 months (6.7 to 17.0 months) in the NIV plus pacing arm, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.27 (95% confidence interval 1.22 to 4.25; p = 0.01)., Conclusions: Diaphragmatic pacing should not be used as a routine treatment for patients with ALS in respiratory failure., Future Work: It may be that certain population subgroups benefit from DP. We are unable to explain the mechanism behind the excess mortality in the pacing arm, something the small trial size cannot help address. Future research should investigate the mechanism by which harm or benefit occurs further., Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN53817913., Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 45. See the HTA programme website for further project information. Additional funding was provided by the Motor Neurone Disease Association of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Aim: To estimate the diagnostic performance of ultrasound in detecting agenesis of the corpus callosum (ACC)., Materials and Methods: A retrospective review was performed of 1722 in utero MRI examinations. All cases were identified in which the fetus had been referred from ultrasonography with a diagnosis of ACC and those in which ACC was given as a diagnosis on the in utero MRI study. The MRI was assumed to provide the correct diagnosis of ACC and descriptive statistics of diagnostic accuracy for ultrasound were calculated., Results: Of the 1722 ultrasound examinations performed, 121 had a diagnosis of ACC and approximately 50% were confirmed at MRI. Forty-two fetuses with ACC not suspected at ultrasonography were also identified at MRI. Ultrasonography had a positive predictive value of 47% (95% CI: 38-56%) and a negative predictive value of 97% (95% CI: 96-98%) for detecting ACC., Conclusion: Ultrasound is poor in diagnosing ACC and in utero MRI should be performed if there is any suspicion on antenatal ultrasonography., (Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Within the UK, during September, there is a pronounced increase in the number of unscheduled medical contacts by school-aged children (4-16 years) with asthma. It is thought that that this might be caused by the return back to school after the summer holidays, suddenly mixing with other children again and picking up viruses which could affect their asthma. There is also a drop in the number of prescriptions administered in August. It is possible therefore that children might not be taking their medication as they should during the summer contributing to them becoming ill when they return to school.It is hoped that a simple intervention from the GP to parents of children with asthma at the start of the summer holiday period, highlighting the importance of maintaining asthma medication can help prevent increased asthma exacerbation, and unscheduled NHS appointments, following return to school in September., Methods/design: PLEASANT is a cluster randomised trial. A total of 140 General Practices (GPs) will be recruited into the trial; 70 GPs randomised to the intervention and 70 control practices of "usual care". An average practice is expected to have approximately 100 children (aged 4-16 with a diagnosis of asthma) hence observational data will be collected on around 14000 children over a 24-month period. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink will collect all data required for the study which includes diagnostic, prescription and referral data., Discussion: The trial will assess whether the intervention can reduce exacerbation of asthma and unscheduled medical contacts in school-aged children associated with the return to school after the summer holidays. It has the potential to benefit the health and quality of life of children with asthma while also improving the effectiveness of NHS services by reducing NHS use in one of the busiest months of the year.An exploratory health economic analysis will gauge any cost saving associated with the intervention and subsequent impacts on quality of life. If results for the intervention are positive it is hoped that this could be adopted as part of routine care management of childhood asthma in general practice., Trial Registration: Current controlled trials: ISRCTN03000938 (assigned 19/10/12) http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN03000938/., Ukcrn Id: 13572.

Background: Motor neurone disease (MND) is a devastating illness which leads to muscle weakness and death, usually within 2-3 years of symptom onset. Respiratory insufficiency is a common cause of morbidity, particularly in later stages of MND and respiratory complications are the leading cause of mortality in MND patients. Non Invasive Ventilation (NIV) is the current standard therapy to manage respiratory insufficiency. Some MND patients however do not tolerate NIV due to a number of issues including mask interface problems and claustrophobia. In those that do tolerate NIV, eventually respiratory muscle weakness will progress to a point at which intermittent/overnight NIV is ineffective. The NeuRx RA/4 Diaphragm Pacing System was originally developed for patients with respiratory insufficiency and diaphragm paralysis secondary to stable high spinal cord injuries. The DiPALS study will assess the effect of diaphragm pacing (DP) when used to treat patients with MND and respiratory insufficiency., Method/design: 108 patients will be recruited to the study at 5 sites in the UK. Patients will be randomised to either receive NIV (current standard care) or receive DP in addition to NIV. Study participants will be required to complete outcome measures at 5 follow up time points (2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months) plus an additional surgery and 1 week post operative visit for those in the DP group. 12 patients (and their carers) from the DP group will also be asked to complete 2 qualitative interviews., Discussion: The primary objective of this trial will be to evaluate the effect of Diaphragm Pacing (DP) on survival over the study duration in patients with MND with respiratory muscle weakness. The project is funded by the National Institute for Health Research, Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme (project number 09/55/33) and the Motor Neurone Disease Association and the Henry Smith Charity., Trial Registration: Current controlled trials ISRCTN53817913. The views and opinions expressed therein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the HTA programme, NIHR, NHS or the Department of Health.

For rare outcomes, meta-analysis of randomized trials may be the only way to obtain reliable evidence of the effects of healthcare interventions. However, many methods of meta-analysis are based on large sample approximations, and may be unsuitable when events are rare. Through simulation, we evaluated the performance of 12 methods for pooling rare events, considering estimability, bias, coverage and statistical power. Simulations were based on data sets from three case studies with between five and 19 trials, using baseline event rates between 0.1 and 10 per cent and risk ratios of 1, 0.75, 0.5 and 0.2. We found that most of the commonly used meta-analytical methods were biased when data were sparse. The bias was greatest in inverse variance and DerSimonian and Laird odds ratio and risk difference methods, and the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) odds ratio method using a 0.5 zero-cell correction. Risk difference meta-analytical methods tended to show conservative confidence interval coverage and low statistical power at low event rates. At event rates below 1 per cent the Peto one-step odds ratio method was the least biased and most powerful method, and provided the best confidence interval coverage, provided there was no substantial imbalance between treatment and control group sizes within trials, and treatment effects were not exceptionally large. In other circumstances the MH OR without zero-cell corrections, logistic regression and the exact method performed similarly to each other, and were less biased than the Peto method.

Background: HER-2 (c-erbB2/Neu) predicts the prognosis of and may influence treatment responses in breast cancer. HER-2 activity induces the cytoplasmic location of p21WAFI/CIPI in cell culture, accompanied by resistance to apoptosis. p21WAFI/CIPI is a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor activated by p53 to produce cell cycle arrest in association with nuclear localisation of p21WAFI/CIPI. We previously showed that higher levels of cytoplasmic p21WAFI/CIPI in breast cancers predicted reduced survival at 5 years. The present study examined HER-2 and p21WAFI/CIPI expression in a series of breast cancers with up to 9 years of follow-up, to evaluate whether in vitro findings were related to clinical data and the effect on outcome., Methods: The CB11 anti-HER2 monoclonal antibody and the DAKO Envision Plus system were used to evaluate HER-2 expression in 73 patients. p21WAFI/CIPI staining was performed as described previously using the mouse monoclonal antibody Ab-1 (Calbiochem, Cambridge, MA, USA)., Results: HER-2 was evaluable in 67 patients and was expressed in 19% of cases, predicting reduced overall survival (P = 0.02) and reduced relapse-free survival (P = 0.004; Cox regression model). HER-2-positive tumours showed proportionately higher cytoplasmic p21WAFI/CIPI staining using an intensity distribution score (median, 95) compared with HER-2-negative cancers (median, 47) (P = 0.005). There was a much weaker association between nuclear p21WAFI/CIPI and HER-2 expression (P = 0.05), suggesting an inverse relationship between nuclear p21WAF1/CIP1 and HER-2., Conclusion: This study highlights a new pathway by which HER-2 may modify cancer behaviour. HER-2 as a predictor of poor prognosis may partly relate to its ability to influence the relocalisation of p21WAFI/CIPI from the nucleus to the cytoplasm, resulting in a loss of p21WAFI/CIPItumour suppressor functions. Cytoplasmic p21WAFI/CIPI may be a surrogate marker of functional HER-2 in vivo.

The heterodimeric cyclin B/Cdc2 protein kinase governs entry into mitosis, and can be negatively regulated through p53-mediated transcriptional induction of the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p21(WAF1/CIP1). Ectopic expression of p21(WAF1/CIP1) in cultured cells has been shown previously to influence the subcellular distribution of the cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) including Cdc2. In this study, we have examined the subcellular localisation of Cdc2, cyclin B and p21(WAF1/CIP1) by immunohistochemistry in a well characterised series of primary breast cancers. Surprisingly, p21(WAF1/CIP1) was predominantly cytoplasmic in many of the tumours, where it was associated with high p53 levels; cytoplasmic p21(WAF1/CIP1) and high cyclin B levels were also significant predictors of poor prognosis. We conclude that breast tumorigenesis may be characterised by abnormalities in pathways determining not only levels of expression of key regulatory molecules, but also their subcellular localisation. Investigation of the subcellular distribution of cell cycle regulatory proteins, particularly p21(WAF1/CIP1), could provide valuable prognostic markers in breast cancer.

Background: Debate and controversy remain as to the optimal post-remission therapy for younger patients with acute myelogenous leukaemia (AML). The aim of this study was to evaluate high-dose treatment (HDT) with autologous bone marrow support (ABMS) as consolidation of first complete remission (CR)., Patients and Methods: One hundred forty-four patients (AML-M3 excluded, median age 38 years, range 15-49 years) received remission induction therapy comprising: adriamycin 25 mg/m2, days 1-3, cytosine arabinoside (ara-C) and 6-thioguanine, both at 100 mg/m2 bid, days 1-7. Patients in whom CR was achieved received two further cycles of the same treatment prior to bone marrow being harvested and cryopreserved. HDT comprised ara-C: 1 g/m2 b.i.d. x six days and total body irradiation (TBI): 200 cGy b.i.d. for three days. Thawed autologous marrow was then re-infused., Results: Complete remission was achieved in 106 of 144 patients (73%) who were thus eligible to receive ara-C + TBI + ABMS; 61 actually received it. Following HDT, the median time to neutrophil recovery (> 0.5 x 10(9)/l) was 25 days (range 11-72 days) and to platelet recovery (> 20 x 10(9)/l), 42 days (range 15-159 days). There were eight treatment-related deaths. Analysis by 'intention to treat' shows both remission duration (log-rank, P = 0.001) and survival (log-rank, P = 0.004) to be significantly longer for the 106 patients eligible to receive HDT than for a historical control group (n = 133) who received identical remission induction and consolidation therapy but without ara-C + TBI + ABMS. With a median follow-up of 5.5 years, 39 of 106 patients remain in CR (37%) and 54 (51% of those in whom CR was achieved) remain alive, with a predicted actuarial survival of 52% at 5 years., Conclusions: The addition of ara-C + TBI + ABMS to conventional consolidation therapy significantly improved remission duration and survival over those of a historical control group of patients with AML (aged < 50, AML-M3 excluded). HDT was, however, associated with significant treatment-related mortality and slow blood count recovery. The use of ara-C + TBI supported by peripheral blood progenitor cells should make the treatment safer and more widely applicable in AML.

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of an educational visit to help obstetricians and midwives select and use evidence from a Cochrane database containing 600 systematic reviews., Design: Randomised single blind controlled trial with obstetric units allocated to an educational visit or control group., Setting: 25 of the 26 district general obstetric units in two former NHS regions., Subjects: The senior obstetrician and midwife from each intervention unit participated in educational visits. Clinical practices of all staff were assessed in 4508 pregnancies., Intervention: Single informal educational visit by a respected obstetrician including discussion of evidence based obstetrics, guidance on implementation, and donation of Cochrane database and other materials., Main Outcome Measures: Rates of perineal suturing with polyglycolic acid, ventouse delivery, prophylactic antibiotics in caesarean section, and steroids in preterm delivery, before and 9 months after visits, and concordance of guidelines with review evidence for same marker practices before and after visits., Results: Rates varied greatly, but the overall baseline mean of 43% (986/2312) increased to 54% (1189/2196) 9 months later. Rates of ventouse delivery increased significantly in intervention units but not in control units; there was no difference between the two types of units in uptake of other practices. Pooling rates from all 25 units, use of antibiotics in caesarean section and use of polyglycolic acid sutures increased significantly over the period, but use of steroids in preterm delivery was unchanged. Labour ward guidelines seldom agreed with evidence at baseline; this hardly improved after visits. Educational visits cost pound860 each (at 1995 prices)., Conclusions: There was considerable uptake of evidence into practice in both control and intervention units between 1994 and 1995. Our educational visits added little to this, despite the informal setting, targeting of senior staff from two disciplines, and donation of educational materials. Further work is needed to define cost effective methods to enhance the uptake of evidence from systematic reviews and to clarify leadership and roles of senior obstetric staff in implementing the evidence.

Background: Assessment of completeness of tumour excision has become an integral part of breast-conserving surgery, but the accuracy of margin analysis has been questioned. This study compared the results of resection margin analysis with an examination of tumour bed biopsies and of the excised cavity wall., Methods: One hundred and forty-four patients underwent breast-conserving surgery for T1-2 N0-1 breast cancer. Following wide local excision, four bed biopsies were taken from the cavity wall which was then completely excised. The presence of invasive and in situ disease at the inked resection margin (IRM) and in the adjacent bed biopsies and cavity wall was recorded., Results: Positive margins and/or residual disease in either the bed biopsies or cavity wall was found in 62 (43 per cent) of 144 cases. Residual disease (invasive or in situ) was present at the IRM in 39 specimens (27 per cent) and was present in 25 bed biopsy (17 per cent) and 39 cavity wall (27 per cent) specimens. These comprised different but overlapping groups of patients., Conclusion: Margin analysis of wide local excision specimens is a poor predictor of completeness of excision. Routine resection and examination of the entire cavity wall increases the detection of residual disease compared with examination of bed biopsies alone and is a useful adjuvant to conventional margin evaluation.