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Galaxy clusters provide an avenue to expand our knowledge of cosmology and galaxy evolution. Because it is difficult to accurately measure the total mass of a large number of individual clusters, cluster samples are typically selected using an observable proxy for mass. Selection effects are therefore a key problem in understanding galaxy cluster statistics. We make use of the $(2.8~\rm{Gpc})^3$ FLAMINGO hydrodynamical simulation to investigate how selection based on X-ray luminosity, thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect or galaxy richness influences the halo mass distribution. We define our selection cuts based on the median value of the observable at a fixed mass and compare the resulting samples to a mass-selected sample. We find that all samples are skewed towards lower mass haloes. For X-ray luminosity and richness cuts below a critical value, scatter dominates over the trend with mass and the median mass becomes biased increasingly low with respect to a mass-selected sample. At $z\leq0.5$, observable cuts corresponding to median halo masses between $M_\text{500c}=10^{14}$ and $10^{15}~\rm{M_{\odot}}$ give nearly unbiased median masses for all selection methods, but X-ray selection results in biased medians for higher masses. For cuts corresponding to median masses $<10^{14}$ at $z\leq0.5$ and for all masses at $z\geq1$, only Compton-Y selection yields nearly unbiased median masses. Importantly, even when the median mass is unbiased, the scatter is not because for each selection the sample is skewed towards lower masses than a mass-selected sample. Each selection leads to a different bias in secondary quantities like cool-core fraction, temperature and gas fraction., Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures (Including the appendix). Submitted to MNRAS

We present rest-frame optical spectra from Keck/MOSFIRE and Keck/NIRES of 16 candidate ultramassive galaxies targeted as part of the Massive Ancient Galaxies at $z>3$ Near-Infrared (MAGAZ3NE) Survey. These candidates were selected to have photometric redshifts $3\lesssim z_{\rm phot}<4$, photometric stellar masses log($M$/M$_\odot$)$>11.7$, and well-sampled photometric spectral energy distributions (SEDs) from the UltraVISTA and VIDEO surveys. In contrast to previous spectroscopic observations of blue star-forming and post-starburst ultramassive galaxies, candidates in this sample have very red SEDs implying significant dust attenuation, old stellar ages, and/or active galactic nuclei (AGN). Of these galaxies, eight are revealed to be heavily dust-obscured $2.03$, one is a $z\sim1.2$ dusty galaxy, and four galaxies do not have a confirmed spectroscopic redshift. In fact, none of the sample has |$z_{\rm spec}-z_{\rm phot}$|$<0.5$, suggesting difficulties for photometric redshift programs in fitting similarly red SEDs. The prevalence of these red interloper galaxies suggests that the number densities of high-mass galaxies are overestimated at $z\gtrsim3$ in large photometric surveys, helping to resolve the `impossibly early galaxy problem' and leading to much better agreement with cosmological galaxy simulations. A more complete spectroscopic survey of ultramassive galaxies is required to pin down the uncertainties on their number densities in the early universe., Comment: Submitted to ApJ. Comments welcome!

The relativistic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect can be used to measure intracluster gas temperatures independently of X-ray spectroscopy. Here, we use the large-volume FLAMINGO simulation suite to determine whether SZ $y$-weighted temperatures lead to more accurate hydrostatic mass estimates in massive ($M_{\rm 500c} > 7.5\times 10^{14}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$) clusters than when using X-ray spectroscopic-like temperatures. We find this to be the case, on average. The median bias in the SZ mass at redshift zero is $\left< b \right> \equiv 1-\left< M_{\rm 500c,hse}/M_{\rm 500c,true} \right> = -0.05 \pm 0.01$, over 4 times smaller in magnitude than the X-ray spectroscopic-like case, $\left< b \right> = 0.22 \pm 0.01$. However, the scatter in the SZ bias, $\sigma_{b} \approx 0.2$, is around 40 per cent larger than for the X-ray case. We show that this difference is strongly affected by clusters with large pressure fluctuations, as expected from shocks in ongoing mergers. Selecting the clusters with the best-fitting generalized NFW pressure profiles, the median SZ bias almost vanishes, $\left< b \right> = -0.009 \pm 0.005$, and the scatter is halved to $\sigma_{b} \approx 0.1$. We study the origin of the SZ/X-ray difference and find that, at $R_{\rm 500c}$ and in the outskirts, SZ weighted gas better reflects the hot, hydrostatic atmosphere than the X-ray weighted gas. The SZ/X-ray temperature ratio increases with radius, a result we find to be insensitive to variations in baryonic physics, cosmology and numerical resolution., Comment: 19 pages, 22 figures, submitted to MNRAS. Comments welcome

Large-scale structure surveys have reported measurements of the density of matter, $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$, and the amplitude of clustering, $\sigma_8$, that are in tension with the values inferred from observations of the cosmic microwave background. While this may be a sign of new physics that slows the growth of structure at late times, strong astrophysical feedback processes could also be responsible. In this work, we argue that astrophysical processes are not independent of cosmology and that their coupling naturally leads to stronger baryonic feedback in cosmological models with suppressed structure formation or when combined with a mechanism that removes dark matter from halos. We illustrate this with two well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model known to suppress structure formation: massive neutrinos and decaying dark matter. Our results, based on the FLAMINGO suite of hydrodynamical simulations, show that the combined effect of baryonic and non-baryonic suppression mechanisms is greater than the sum of its parts, particularly for decaying dark matter. We also show that the dependence of baryonic feedback on cosmology can be modelled as a function of the ratio $f_\mathrm{b}/c^2_\mathrm{v}\sim f_\mathrm{b}/(\Omega_\mathrm{m}\sigma_8)^{1/4}$ of the universal baryon fraction, $f_\mathrm{b}$, to a velocity-based definition of halo concentration, $c^2_\mathrm{v}$, giving an accurate fitting formula for the baryonic suppression of the matter power spectrum. Although the combination of baryonic and non-baryonic suppression mechanisms can resolve the tension, the models with neutrinos and decaying dark matter are challenged by constraints on the expansion history., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, submitted to MNRAS

Weak gravitational lensing convergence peaks, the local maxima in weak lensing convergence maps, have been shown to contain valuable cosmological information complementary to commonly used two-point statistics. To exploit the full power of weak lensing for cosmology, we must model baryonic feedback processes because these reshape the matter distribution on non-linear and mildly non-linear scales. We study the impact of baryonic physics on the number density of weak lensing peaks using the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulation suite. We generate ray-traced full-sky convergence maps mimicking the characteristics of a Stage IV weak lensing survey. We compare the number densities of peaks in simulations that have been calibrated to reproduce the observed galaxy mass function and cluster gas fraction or to match a shifted version of these, and that use either thermally driven or jet AGN feedback. We show that the differences induced by realistic baryonic feedback prescriptions (typically $5 - 30\%$ for $\kappa = 0.1 - 0.4$) are smaller than those induced by reasonable variations in cosmological parameters ($20 - 60\%$ for $\kappa = 0.1 - 0.4$) but must be modeled carefully to obtain unbiased results. The reasons behind these differences can be understood by considering the impact of feedback on halo masses, or by considering the impact of different cosmological parameters on the halo mass function. Our analysis demonstrates that, for the range of models we investigated, the baryonic suppression is insensitive to changes in cosmology up to $\kappa \approx 0.4$ and that the higher $\kappa$ regime is dominated by Poisson noise and cosmic variance., Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures (including the appendix), Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Galaxy clusters are important probes for both cosmology and galaxy formation physics. We test the cosmological, hydrodynamical FLAMINGO simulations by comparing to observations of the gaseous properties of clusters measured from X-ray observations. FLAMINGO contains unprecedented numbers of massive galaxy groups ($>10^6$) and clusters ($>10^5$) and includes variations in both cosmology and galaxy formation physics. We predict the evolution of cluster scaling relations as well as radial profiles of the temperature, density, pressure, entropy, and metallicity for different masses and redshifts. We show that the differences between volume-, and X-ray-weighting of particles in the simulations, and between cool-core non cool-core samples, are similar in size as the differences between simulations for which the stellar and AGN feedback has been calibrated to produce significantly different gas fractions. Compared to thermally-driven AGN feedback, kinetic jet feedback calibrated to produce the same gas fraction at $R_{\rm 500c}$ yields a hotter core with higher entropies and lower densities, which translates into a smaller fraction of cool-core clusters. Stronger feedback, calibrated to produce lower gas fractions and hence lower gas densities, results in higher temperatures, entropies, and metallicities, but lower pressures. The scaling relations and thermodynamic profiles show almost no evolution with respect to self-similar expectations, except for the metallicity decreasing with redshift. We find that the temperature, density, pressure, and entropy profiles of clusters in the fiducial FLAMINGO simulation are in excellent agreement with observations, while the metallicities in the core are too high., Comment: 21 pages, 14 figures (including appendix). Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Moved Section 3 to Appendix A, new Section 3 compares scaling relations for different physics models. Added lower mass bin for physics model comparison of thermodynamic profiles. Conclusions unchanged

The splashback radius, coinciding with the minimum in the dark matter radial density gradient, is thought to be a universal definition of the edge of a dark matter halo. Observational methods to detect it have traced the dark matter using weak gravitational lensing or galaxy number counts. Recent attempts have also claimed the detection of a similar feature in Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) observations of the hot intracluster gas. Here, we use the FLAMINGO simulations to investigate whether an extremum gradient in a similar position to the splashback radius is predicted to occur in the cluster gas profiles. We find that the minimum in the gradient of the stacked 3D gas density and pressure profiles, and the maximum in the gradient of the entropy profile, broadly align with the splashback feature though there are significant differences. While the dark matter splashback radius varies with specific mass accretion rate, in agreement with previous work, the radial position of the deepest minimum in the log-slope of the gas density is more sensitive to halo mass. In addition, we show that a similar minimum is also present in projected 2D pseudo-observable profiles: emission measure (X-ray); Compton-$y$ (SZ) and surface mass density (weak lensing). We find that the latter traces the dark matter results reasonably well albeit the minimum occurs at a slightly smaller radius. While results for the gas profiles are largely insensitive to accretion rate and various observable proxies for dynamical state, they do depend on the strength of the feedback processes., Comment: Accepted by MNRAS

A number of recent studies have found evidence for a tension between observations of large-scale structure (LSS) and the predictions of the standard model of cosmology with the cosmological parameters fit to the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The origin of this '$S_8$ tension' remains unclear, but possibilities include new physics beyond the standard model, unaccounted for systematic errors in the observational measurements and/or uncertainties in the role that baryons play. Here we carefully examine the latter possibility using the new FLAMINGO suite of large-volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. We project the simulations onto observable harmonic space and compare with observational measurements of the power and cross-power spectra of cosmic shear, CMB lensing, and the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect. We explore the dependence of the predictions on box size and resolution, cosmological parameters including the neutrino mass, and the efficiency and nature of baryonic 'feedback'. Despite the wide range of astrophysical behaviours simulated, we find that baryonic effects are not sufficiently large to remove the $S_8$ tension. Consistent with recent studies, we find the CMB lensing power spectrum is in excellent agreement with the standard model, whilst the cosmic shear power spectrum, tSZ effect power spectrum, and the cross-spectra between shear, CMB lensing, and the tSZ effect are all in varying degrees of tension with the CMB-specified standard model. These results suggest that some mechanism is required to slow the growth of fluctuations at late times and/or on non-linear scales, but that it is unlikely that baryon physics is driving this modification., Comment: 26 pages, 12 figures, MNRAS, accepted with minor revisions

Weak lensing of the cosmic microwave background is rapidly emerging as a powerful probe of neutrinos, dark energy, and new physics. We present a fast computation of the non-linear CMB lensing power spectrum which combines non-linear perturbation theory at early times with power spectrum emulation using cosmological simulations at late times. Comparing our calculation with lightcones from the FLAMINGO 5.6 Gpc cube dark-matter-only simulation, we confirm its accuracy to 1% (2%) up to multipoles L = 3000 (L = 5000) for a nuLambdaCDM cosmology consistent with current data. Clustering suppression due to small-scale baryonic phenomena such as feedback from active galactic nuclei can reduce the lensing power by of order 10%. To our perturbation theory and emulator-based calculation we add SP(k), a new fitting function for this suppression, and confirm its accuracy compared to the FLAMINGO hydrodynamic simulations to 4% at L = 5000, with similar accuracy for massive neutrino models. We further demonstrate that scale-dependent suppression due to neutrinos and baryons approximately factorize, implying that a careful treatment of baryonic feedback can limit biasing neutrino mass constraints., Comment: 14 pages, 21 figures, 1 table

To fully take advantage of the data provided by large-scale structure surveys, we need to quantify the potential impact of baryonic effects, such as feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star formation, on cosmological observables. In simulations, feedback processes originate on scales that remain unresolved. Therefore, they need to be sourced via subgrid models that contain free parameters. We use machine learning to calibrate the AGN and stellar feedback models for the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Using Gaussian process emulators trained on Latin hypercubes of 32 smaller-volume simulations, we model how the galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions change as a function of the subgrid parameters. The emulators are then fit to observational data, allowing for the inclusion of potential observational biases. We apply our method to the three different FLAMINGO resolutions, spanning a factor of 64 in particle mass, recovering the observed relations within the respective resolved mass ranges. We also use the emulators, which link changes in subgrid parameters to changes in observables, to find models that skirt or exceed the observationally allowed range for cluster gas fractions and the stellar mass function. Our method enables us to define model variations in terms of the data that they are calibrated to rather than the values of specific subgrid parameters. This approach is useful, because subgrid parameters are typically not directly linked to particular observables, and predictions for a specific observable are influenced by multiple subgrid parameters., Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures (Including the appendix). Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Minor changes w.r.t. version 1. For visualisations, see the FLAMINGO website at https://flamingo.strw.leidenuniv.nl/

We introduce the Virgo Consortium's FLAMINGO suite of hydrodynamical simulations for cosmology and galaxy cluster physics. To ensure the simulations are sufficiently realistic for studies of large-scale structure, the subgrid prescriptions for stellar and AGN feedback are calibrated to the observed low-redshift galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions. The calibration is performed using machine learning, separately for three resolutions. This approach enables specification of the model by the observables to which they are calibrated. The calibration accounts for a number of potential observational biases and for random errors in the observed stellar masses. The two most demanding simulations have box sizes of 1.0 and 2.8 Gpc and baryonic particle masses of $1\times10^8$ and $1\times10^9 \text{M}_\odot$, respectively. For the latter resolution the suite includes 12 model variations in a 1 Gpc box. There are 8 variations at fixed cosmology, including shifts in the stellar mass function and/or the cluster gas fractions to which we calibrate, and two alternative implementations of AGN feedback (thermal or jets). The remaining 4 variations use the unmodified calibration data but different cosmologies, including different neutrino masses. The 2.8 Gpc simulation follows $3\times10^{11}$ particles, making it the largest ever hydrodynamical simulation run to $z=0$. Lightcone output is produced on-the-fly for up to 8 different observers. We investigate numerical convergence, show that the simulations reproduce the calibration data, and compare with a number of galaxy, cluster, and large-scale structure observations, finding very good agreement with the data for converged predictions. Finally, by comparing hydrodynamical and `dark-matter-only' simulations, we confirm that baryonic effects can suppress the halo mass function and the matter power spectrum by up to $\approx20$ per cent., Comment: 44 pages, 23 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. V3 includes changes made in published version: jet simulations were redone to fix a bug, but the differences are nearly invisible. For visualizations, see the FLAMINGO website at https://flamingo.strw.leidenuniv.nl/

Cloud-wind interactions are common in the interstellar and circumgalactic media. Many studies have used simulations of such interactions to investigate the effect of particular physical processes, but the impact of the choice of hydrodynamics solver has largely been overlooked. Here we study the cloud-wind interaction, also known as the "blob test", using seven different hydrodynamics solvers: Three flavours of SPH, a moving mesh, adaptive mesh refinement and two meshless schemes. The evolution of masses in dense gas and intermediate-temperature gas, as well as the covering fraction of intermediate-temperature gas, are systematically compared for initial density contrasts of 10 and 100, and five numerical resolutions. To isolate the differences due to the hydrodynamics solvers, we use idealised non-radiative simulations without physical conduction. We find large differences between these methods. SPH methods show slower dispersal of the cloud, particularly for the higher density contrast, but faster convergence, especially for the lower density contrast. Predictions for the intermediate-temperature gas differ particularly strongly, also between non-SPH codes, and converge most slowly. We conclude that the hydrodynamical interaction between a dense cloud and a supersonic wind remains an unsolved problem. Studies aiming to understand the physics or observational signatures of cloud-wind interactions should test the robustness of their results by comparing different hydrodynamics solvers., Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures; Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Added higher resolution simulations, fixed an issue with the GDF SPH run, clarified the discussion. Conclusions unchanged

Structure formation in our Universe creates non-Gaussian random fields that will soon be observed over almost the entire sky by the Euclid satellite, the Vera-Rubin observatory, and the Square Kilometre Array. An unsolved problem is how to analyze best such non-Gaussian fields, e.g. to infer the physical laws that created them. This problem could be solved if a parametric non-Gaussian sampling distribution for such fields were known, as this distribution could serve as likelihood during inference. We therefore create a sampling distribution for non-Gaussian random fields. Our approach is capable of handling strong non-Gaussianity, while perturbative approaches such as the Edgeworth expansion cannot. To imitate cosmological structure formation, we enforce our fields to be (i) statistically isotropic, (ii) statistically homogeneous, and (iii) statistically independent at large distances. We generate such fields via a Monte Carlo Markov Chain technique and find that even strong non-Gaussianity is not necessarily visible to the human eye. We also find that sampled marginals for pixel pairs have an almost generic Gauss-like appearance, even if the joint distribution of all pixels is markedly non-Gaussian. This apparent Gaussianity is a consequence of the high dimensionality of random fields. We conclude that vast amounts of non-Gaussian information can be hidden in random fields that appear nearly Gaussian in simple tests, and that it would be short-sighted not to try and extract it., Comment: Accepted by the Open Journal of Astrophysics