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Future energy systems are subject to various uncertain influences. As resilient systems they should maintain a constantly high operational performance whatever happens. We explore different levels and time scales of decision making in energy systems, highlighting different uncertainty sources that are relevant in different domains. We discuss how the uncertainties can be represented and how one can react to them. The article closes by summarizing, which uncertainties are already well examined and which ones still need further scientific inquiry to obtain resilient energy systems.

Climate neutrality paradigms put electricity systems at the core of a clean energy supply. At the same time, indirect electrification, with a potential uptake of hydrogen or derived fuel economy, plays a crucial role in decarbonising the energy supply and industrial processes. Besides energy markets coordinating the transition, climate and energy policy targets require fundamental changes and expansions in the energy transmission, import, distribution, and storage infrastructures. While existing studies identify relevant demands for hydrogen, critical decisions involve imports versus domestic fuel production and investments in new or repurposing existing pipeline and storage infrastructure. Linking the pan-European energy system planning model SCOPE SD with the multiperiod European gas market model IMAGINE, the case study analysis and its transformation pathway results indicate extensive network development of hydrogen infrastructure, including expansion beyond refurbished methane infrastructure. However, the ranges of future hydrogen storage costs and market uptake restrictions expose and quantify the uncertainty of its role in Europes transformation. The study finds that rapidly planning the construction of hydrogen storage and pipeline infrastructure is crucial to achieving the required capacity by 2050.

Nowadays, the PQ flexibility from the distributed energy resources (DERs) in the high voltage (HV) grids plays a more critical and significant role in grid congestion management in TSO grids. This work proposed a multi-stage deep reinforcement learning approach to estimate the PQ flexibility (PQ area) at the TSO-DSO interfaces and identifies the DER PQ setpoints for each operating point in a way, that DERs in the meshed HV grid can be coordinated to offer flexibility for the transmission grid. In the estimation process, we consider the steady-state grid limits and the robustness in the resulting voltage profile against uncertainties and the N-1 security criterion regarding thermal line loading, essential for real-life grid operational planning applications. Using deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for PQ flexibility estimation is the first of its kind. Furthermore, our approach of considering N-1 security criterion for meshed grids and robustness against uncertainty directly in the optimization tasks offers a new perspective besides the common relaxation schema in finding a solution with mathematical optimal power flow (OPF). Finally, significant improvements in the computational efficiency in estimation PQ area are the highlights of the proposed method., Comment: Conference: NEIS 2022, Hamburg

Due to the decarbonisation of energy use, the power system is expected to become the backbone of all energy sectors and thus the basic critical infrastructure. High penetration with distributed energy resources demands the coordination of a large number of prosumers, partly controlled by home energy management systems (HEMS), to be designed in such a way that the power system's operational limits are not violated. On the grid level, distribution management systems (DMS) try to keep the power system in the normal operational state. On the prosumer level, distributed HEMS optimise the internal power flows by using batteries, photovoltaic generators, or flexible loads optimally. The vision of the ODiS (Organic Distribution System) initiative is to develop an architecture to operate a distribution grid reliably, with high resiliency, and fully autonomously by developing "organic" HEMS and DMS which possess multiple self-* capabilities. Thus, ODiS seeks answers to the following question: How can we create the most appropriate models, techniques, and algorithms to develop novel kinds of self-configuring, self-organising, self-healing, and self-optimising DMS that are integrally coupled with the distributed HEMS? In this article, the vision of ODiS is presented in detail based on a thorough review of the state of the art., Comment: Preprint submitted to Energies

To analyze large sets of grid states, e.g. when evaluating the impact from the uncertainties of the renewable generation with probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation or in stationary time series simulation, large number of power flow calculations have to be performed. For the application in real-time grid operation, grid planning and in further cases when computational time is critical, a novel approach on simultaneous parallelization of many Newton-Raphson power flow calculations on CPU and with GPU-acceleration is proposed. The result shows a speed-up of over x100 comparing to the open-source tool pandapower, when performing repetitive power flows of system with admittance matrix of the same sparsity pattern on both CPU and GPU. The speed-up relies on the algorithm improvement and highly optimized parallelization strategy, which can reduce the repetitive work and saturate the high hardware computational capability of modern CPUs and GPUs well. This is achieved with the proposed batched sparse matrix operation and batched linear solver based on LU-refactorization. The batched linear solver shows a large performance improvement comparing to the state-of-the-art linear system solver KLU library and a better saturation of the GPU performance with small problem scale. Finally, the method of integrating the proposed solver into pandapower is presented, thus the parallel power flow solver with outstanding performance can be easily applied in challenging real-life grid operation and innovative researches e.g. data-driven machine learning studies., Comment: preprint accepted in Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks

Fast approximations of power flow results are beneficial in power system planning and live operation. In planning, millions of power flow calculations are necessary if multiple years, different control strategies or contingency policies are to be considered. In live operation, grid operators must assess if grid states comply with contingency requirements in a short time. In this paper, we compare regression and classification methods to either predict multi-variable results, e.g. bus voltage magnitudes and line loadings, or binary classifications of time steps to identify critical loading situations. We test the methods on three realistic power systems based on time series in 15 min and 5 min resolution of one year. We compare different machine learning models, such as multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), decision trees, k-nearest neighbours, gradient boosting, and evaluate the required training time and prediction times as well as the prediction errors. We additionally determine the amount of training data needed for each method and show results, including the approximation of untrained curtailment of generation. Regarding the compared methods, we identified the MLPs as most suitable for the task. The MLP-based models can predict critical situations with an accuracy of 97-98 % and a very low number of false negative predictions of 0.0-0.64 %.

Publicly available grid datasets with electric steady-state equivalent circuit models are crucial for the development and comparison of a variety of power system simulation tools and algorithms. Such algorithms are essential to analyze and improve the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in electrical power systems. Increased penetration of DERs, new technologies, and changing regulatory frameworks require the continuous development of the grid infrastructure. As a result, the number and versatility of grid datasets, which are required in power system research, increases. Furthermore, the used grids are created by different methods and intentions. This paper gives orientation within these developments: First, a concise overview of well-known, publicly available grid datasets is provided. Second, background information on the compilation of the grid datasets, including different methods, intentions and data origins, is reviewed and characterized. Third, common terms to describe electric steady-state distribution grids, such as representative grid or benchmark grid, are assembled and reviewed. Recommendations for the use of these grid terms are made., Comment: Preprint submitted to Energies

The power system planning task is a combinatorial optimization problem. The objective function minimizes the economic costs subject to a set of technical and operational constraints. Meta-heuristics are often used as optimization strategies to find solutions to this problem by combining switching, line reinforcement or new line measures. Common heuristics are GA, PSO, HC, ILS or newer methods such as GWO or FWA. In this paper, we compare these algorithms within the same framework. We test each algorithm on 8 different test grids ranging from 73 to 9421 buses. For each grid and algorithm, we start 50 runs with a maximum run time of 1 hour. The results show that the performance of an algorithm depends on the initial grid state, grid size and amount of measures. The ILS method is very robust in most cases. In the larger test grids, more exploratory heuristics, e.g., GA and PSO, find solutions in shorter run times.

The advent of generative adversarial networks (GAN) has enabled new capabilities in synthesis, interpolation, and data augmentation heretofore considered very challenging. However, one of the common assumptions in most GAN architectures is the assumption of simple parametric latent-space distributions. While easy to implement, a simple latent-space distribution can be problematic for uses such as interpolation. This is due to distributional mismatches when samples are interpolated in the latent space. We present a straightforward formalization of this problem; using basic results from probability theory and off-the-shelf-optimization tools, we develop ways to arrive at appropriate non-parametric priors. The obtained prior exhibits unusual qualitative properties in terms of its shape, and quantitative benefits in terms of lower divergence with its mid-point distribution. We demonstrate that our designed prior helps improve image generation along any Euclidean straight line during interpolation, both qualitatively and quantitatively, without any additional training or architectural modifications. The proposed formulation is quite flexible, paving the way to impose newer constraints on the latent-space statistics.

Due to the 2012 change in the renewable energy act the feed-in tariffs and as result the number of newly installed photovoltaic systems decreased dramatically in Germany. Therefore, there was the need, particularly, in the residential sector to develop new business ideas for photovoltaic systems. In context of this development, combined photovoltaic and heat-power systems were analyzed, which provide not only electricity but also heat throughout one entire year. Flexibilities are provided in form of thermal and electrical storage systems leading to many possible setting options requiring an elaborated control management. In this paper, a new optimized control algorithm is proposed that in contrast to standard strategies can operate optimal even under incorrect weather and load forecasts. A predictive controller based on a mixed integer optimization problem and an additional so called secondary, rule-based controller is combined. The controller is based on several input data. Depending on the choice of these data the PV-CHP hybrid system can be used for different control strategies, like maximum self-consumption, minimum CO2 emission or minimum operational costs. The main focus in this paper is to study if the flexibility potentials of the combined thermal and electrical storage systems can ensure a market oriented or a grid-friendly behavior. This is studied in five control options. As a result we found that the control algorithm is stable and able to adapt to the different conditions. In conclusion, it was discovered that the storage systems play a crucial role in terms of forecast differences and parameter changes. Storage systems are as expected the key-element for the flexibility of PV-CHP hybrid systems., Comment: 11th International Renewable Energy Storage Conference, IRES 2017, 14-16 March 2017, D\"usseldorf, Germany

Power flow calculations for systems with a large number of buses, e.g. grids with multiple voltage levels, or time series based calculations result in a high computational effort. A common power flow solver for the efficient analysis of power systems is the Newton-Raphson algorithm. The main computational effort of this method results from the linearization of the nonlinear power flow problem and solving the resulting linear equation. This paper presents an algorithm for the fast linearization of the power flow problem by creating the Jacobian matrix directly in CRS format. The increase in speed is achieved by reducing the number of iterations over the nonzero elements of the sparse Jacobian matrix. This allows to efficiently create the Jacobian matrix without having to approximate the problem. A comparison of the calculation time of three power grids shows that comparable open-source implementations need 3-14x the time to create the Jacobian matrix.

An important task in grid planning is to ensure that faults in the grid are detected and cut off without damage in any grid element. Calculating short circuit currents is therefore a vital grid analysis functionality for grid planning applications. The standard IEC 60909 provides guidelines for short circuit calculations and is routinely applied in grid planning applications. This paper presents a method for the vectorized calculation of short circuit currents according to IEC 60909. Distributed generation units are considered according to the latest revision of the standard. The method is implemented in the python based open source tool pandapower and validated against commercial software and examples from literature. The implementation presented in this paper is the first comprehensive implementation of the IEC 60909 standard which is available under an open source license. It can be used to evaluate fault currents in grid studies with a high degree of automation and is shown to scale well for large grids. Its practical applicability is shown in a case study with a real MV grid with a high degree of DG penetration.

There are different MV grid concepts with regard to mode of operation and protection system layout. The increasing installation of DG raises the question if the currently used concepts are still optimal for future power systems. We present a methodology that allows the automated calculation and comparison of target grids within different concepts. Specifically, we consider radial grids, closed ring grids and grids with switching stations. A target grid structure is optimized for each of those grid concepts based on geographical information. To model a realistic planning process, compliance with technical constraints for normal operation, contingency behaviour and reliability figures are ensured in all grid concepts. We present a multiphase approach to solve the optimization problem based on an iterated local search meta-heuristic. We then economically compare the grids with regards to CAPEX and OPEX for primary and secondary equipment, to analyse which concept leads to the most overall cost-efficient target grids. Since the methodology allows an automated evaluation of a large number of grids, it can be used to draw general conclusions about the cost-efficiency of specific concepts. The methodology is applied to 44 real MV grids spanning about 4800km of lines, for which the results show that a radial grid structure is overall cost efficient compared to grid topologies with switching stations or closed rings even in grid areas with a large DG penetration. The contribution of this paper is threefold: first, a comprehensive methodology to compile automated target grid plans under realistic premises is presented. Second, the practical applicability of the approach is demonstrated with a large scale case study with a high degree of automation. And third, the results of the case study allow to draw conclusions about the techno-economical differences of different MV grid concepts.

The increasing number of distributed generators connected to distribution grids requires a reliable monitoring of such grids. Economic considerations prevent a full observation of distribution grids with direct measurements. First approaches using a limited number of measurements to monitor such grids exist, some of which use artificial neural networks (ANN). The current ANN-based approaches, however, are limited to static topologies, only estimate voltage magnitudes, do not work properly when confronted with a high amount of distributed generation and often yield inaccurate results. These strong limitations have prevented a true applicability of ANN for distribution grid monitoring. The objective of this paper is to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. We do that by presenting an ANN-based scheme, which advances the state-of-the-art in several ways: Our scheme can cope with a very low number of measurements, far less than is traditionally required by the state-of-the-art weighted least squares state estimation (WLS SE). It can estimate both voltage magnitudes and line loadings with high precision and includes different switching states as inputs. Our contribution consists of a method to generate useful training data by using a scenario generator and a number of hyperparameters that define the ANN architecture. Both can be used for different grids even with a high amount of distributed generation. Simulations are performed with an elaborate evaluation approach on a real distribution grid and a CIGRE benchmark grid both with a high amount of distributed generation from photovoltaics and wind energy converters. They demonstrate that the proposed ANN scheme clearly outperforms state-of-the-art ANN schemes and WLS SE under normal operating conditions and different situations such as gross measurement errors when comparing voltage magnitude and line magnitude estimation errors., Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, 5 tables, preprint

Arrows are a general interface for computation and an alternative to Monads for API design. In contrast to Monad-based parallelism, we explore the use of Arrows for specifying generalised parallelism. Specifically, we define an Arrow-based language and implement it using multiple parallel Haskells. As each parallel computation is an Arrow, such parallel Arrows (PArrows) can be readily composed and transformed as such. To allow for more sophisticated communication schemes between computation nodes in distributed systems, we utilise the concept of Futures to wrap direct communication. To show that PArrows have similar expressive power as existing parallel languages, we implement several algorithmic skeletons and four benchmarks. Benchmarks show that our framework does not induce any notable performance overhead. We conclude that Arrows have considerable potential for composing parallel programs and for producing programs that can execute on multiple parallel language implementations., Comment: 43 pages, 31 main figures, 3 tables, to be submitted to JFP

Network integration studies try to assess the impact of future developments, such as the increase of Renewable Energy Sources or the introduction of Smart Grid Technologies, on large-scale network areas. Goals can be to support strategic alignment in the regulatory framework or to adapt the network planning principles of Distribution System Operators. This study outlines an approach for the automated distribution system planning that can calculate network reconfiguration, reinforcement and extension plans in a fully automated fashion. This allows the estimation of the expected cost in massive probabilistic simulations of large numbers of real networks and constitutes a core component of a framework for large-scale network integration studies. Exemplary case study results are presented that were performed in cooperation with different major distribution system operators. The case studies cover the estimation of expected network reinforcement costs, technical and economical assessment of smart grid technologies and structural network optimisation.