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Individual growth can exert strong controls on population dynamics and be constrained by resource acquisition rates. Difficulty in accurately quantifying resource availability over large spatial extents and at high temporal frequency often limits attempts to understand the extent that resources limit individual growth. Daily estimates of stream metabolism, including gross primary productivity (GPP), are increasingly available but have not, to our knowledge, been linked to fish growth. Here we examine how GPP, water temperature, high flow and turbidity are linked to spatiotemporal variation in growth of flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis). We fit state space growth models to six years of mark-recapture data collected in four river reaches spanning 300 river kilometers. Consistent with past research in this system, we find that water temperature is the dominant driver of spatiotemporal variation in growth. However, we also find that GPP is strongly linked to fish growth. Fish growth is likely to be linked to stream metabolism in other systems where overall productivity, not the quality of primary producers, limits the food webs that support fish growth.

Private lands provide key habitat for imperiled species and are core components of function protectected area networks; yet, their incorporation into national and regional conservation planning has been challenging. Identifying locations where private landowners are likely to participate in conservation initiatives can help avoid conflict and clarify trade-offs between ecological benefits and sociopolitical costs. Empirical, spatially explicit assessment of the factors associated with conservation on private land is an emerging tool for identifying future conservation opportunities. However, most data on private land conservation are voluntarily reported and incomplete, which complicates these assessments. We used a novel application of occupancy models to analyze the occurrence of conservation easements on private land. We compared multiple formulations of occupancy models with a logistic regression model to predict the locations of conservation easements based on a spatially explicit social-ecological systems framework. We combined a simulation experiment with a case study of easement data in Idaho and Montana (United States) to illustrate the utility of the occupancy framework for modeling conservation on private land. Occupancy models that explicitly accounted for variation in reporting produced estimates of predictors that were substantially less biased than estimates produced by logistic regression under all simulated conditions. Occupancy models produced estimates for the 6 predictors we evaluated in our case study that were larger in magnitude, but less certain than those produced by logistic regression. These results suggest that occupancy models result in qualitatively different inferences regarding the effects of predictors on conservation easement occurrence than logistic regression and highlight the importance of integrating variable and incomplete reporting of participation in empirical analysis of conservation initiatives. Failure to do so can lead to emphasizing the wrong social, institutional, and environmental factors that enable conservation and underestimating conservation opportunities in landscapes where social norms or institutional constraints inhibit reporting.La incorporación de las tierras privadas a la planeación de la conservación regional y nacional ha sido un reto a pesar de su importancia como hábitat para especies en peligro y como componentes nucleares de las redes funcionales de áreas protegidas. La identificación de las localidades en donde sea probable que los propietarios privados participen en las iniciativas de conservación puede ayudar a evitar conflictos costosos y a aclarar las compensaciones entre los beneficios ecológicos y los costos sociopolíticos. La evaluación empírica y espacialmente explícita de los factores asociados con la conservación en tierras privadas es una herramienta emergente usada para la identificación de oportunidades de conservación en el futuro. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los datos sobre la conservación en tierras privadas es reportada voluntariamente y está incompleta, lo cual complica realizar estas evaluaciones. Usamos una aplicación novedosa de los modelos de ocupación para analizar la presencia de la mitigación por conservación en tierras privadas. Comparamos diferentes formulaciones de los modelos de ocupación con un modelo de regresión logística para predecir las localidades de la mitigación por conservación con base en un marco de trabajo de un sistema socioecológico espacialmente explícito. Combinamos un experimento de simulación con un estudio de caso sobre datos de mitigación en Idaho y Montana (Estados Unidos) para ilustrar la utilidad del marco de trabajo de ocupación para el modelado de la conservación en tierras privadas. Los modelos de ocupación que consideraron explícitamente la variación en los reportes produjeron estimados de los predictores que estuvieron sustancialmente menos sesgados que los estimados producidos por la regresión logística bajo todas las condiciones simuladas. Los modelos de ocupación produjeron estimaciones para seis predictores que evaluamos en nuestro estudio de caso, los cuales fueron mayores en magnitud pero menos certeros que aquellos producidos por la regresión logística. Estos resultados sugieren que los modelos de ocupación tienen como resultado inferencias cualitativamente diferentes a la regresión logística con respecto a los efectos de los predictores sobre la presencia de mitigación por conservación y resaltan la importancia de la integración de los reportes variables e incompletos sobre la participación dentro del análisis empírico de las iniciativas de conservación. Si se falla en lo anterior se puede terminar enfatizando el factor social, institucional y ambiental equivocado que permite la conservación, además de subestimar las oportunidades de conservación en paisajes en donde las normas sociales o las restricciones institucionales inhiben el reporte de datos.

Large landscapes exhibit natural heterogeneity. Land management can impose additional variation, altering ecosystem patterns. Habitat characteristics may reflect these management factors, potentially resulting in habitat differences that manifest along jurisdictional boundaries. We characterized the patchwork of habitats across a case study landscape, the Grand Canyon Protected Area-Centered Ecosystem. We asked: how do ecological conditions vary across different types of jurisdictional boundaries on public lands? We hypothesized that differences in fire and grazing, because they respond to differences in management over time, contribute to ecological differences by jurisdiction. We collected plot-scale vegetation and soils data along boundaries between public lands units surrounding the Grand Canyon. We compared locations across boundaries of units managed differently, accounting for vegetation type and elevation differences that pre-date management unit designations. We used generalized mixed effects models to evaluate differences in disturbance and ecology across boundaries. Jurisdictions varied in evidence of grazing and fire. After accounting for these differences, some measured vegetation and soil properties also differed among jurisdictions. The greatest differences were between US Forest Service wilderness and Bureau of Land Management units. For most measured variables, US Forest Service non-wilderness units and National Park Service units were intermediate. In this study, several ecological properties tracked jurisdictional boundaries, forming a predictable patchwork of habitats. These patterns likely reflect site differences that pre-date jurisdictions as well as those resulting from different management histories. Understanding how ecosystem differences manifest at jurisdictional boundaries can inform resource management, conservation, and cross-boundary collaborations.

Wind energy is a growing source of renewable energy with a 3-fold increase in use globally over the last decade. However, wind turbines cause bat mortality, especially for migratory species. The southwest United States has high bat species diversity and is an important area for migratory species, although little is known about their seasonal distribution. To examine potential risk to bats in areas proposed for wind energy development, we characterized bat occupancy spatially and temporally across northern Arizona, identifying use during summer when bats are reproductively active and fall during the migratory season. Our objectives were to determine occupancy of migratory species and species of greatest conservation need and develop a probability of occupancy map for species to identify areas of potential conflict with wind energy development. We selected 92 sites in 10 clusters with potential for development and used acoustic detectors to sample bats in the summer and fall of 2016 and 2017 for 6 nights per site per year. We predicted response of migratory bat species and species of special concern to 9 landscape variables using Program MARK. During summer, higher densities of forest on the landscape resulted in a higher probability of occupancy of migratory species such as hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus), silver-haired bats (Lasionycteris noctivagans), big free-tailed bats (Nyctinomops macrotis), and species of conservation need such as spotted bats (Euderma maculatum). During the fall, higher concentration of valleys on the landscape predicted occupancy of hoary bats, big free-tailed bats, and spotted bats. High bat occupancy in the fall was also associated with higher elevation and close proximity to forests. We recommend that wind turbines be placed in open, flat grasslands away from forested landscapes and concentrations of valleys or other topographic variation.

The conservation field is experiencing a rapid increase in the amount, variety, and quality of spatial data that can help us understand species movement and landscape connectivity patterns. As interest grows in more dynamic representations of movement potential, modelers are often limited by the capacity of their analytic tools to handle these datasets. Technology developments in software and high-performance computing are rapidly emerging in many fields, but uptake within conservation may lag, as our tools or our choice of computing language can constrain our ability to keep pace. We recently updated Circuitscape, a widely used connectivity analysis tool developed by Brad McRae and Viral Shah, by implementing it in Julia, a high-performance computing language. In this initial re-code (Circuitscape 5.0) and later updates, we improved computational efficiency and parallelism, achieving major speed improvements, and enabling assessments across larger extents or with higher resolution data. Here, we reflect on the benefits to conservation of strengthening collaborations with computer scientists, and extract examples from a collection of 572 Circuitscape applications to illustrate how through a decade of repeated investment in the software, applications have been many, varied, and increasingly dynamic. Beyond empowering continued innovations in dynamic connectivity, we expect that faster run times will play an important role in facilitating co-production of connectivity assessments with stakeholders, increasing the likelihood that connectivity science will be incorporated in land use decisions.

Caves and other subterranean features provide unique environments for many species. The importance of cave microclimate is particularly relevant at temperate latitudes where bats make seasonal use of caves for hibernation. White‐nose syndrome (WNS), a fungal disease that has devastated populations of hibernating bats across eastern and central North America, has brought renewed interest in bat hibernation and hibernaculum conditions. A recent review synthesized current understanding of cave climatology, exploring the qualitative relationship between cave and surface climate with implications for hibernaculum suitability. However, a more quantitative understanding of the conditions in which bats hibernate and how they may promote or mediate WNS impacts is required. We compiled subterranean temperatures from caves and mines across the western United States and Canada to (1) quantify the hypothesized relationship between mean annual surface temperature (MAST) and subterranean temperature and how it is influenced by measurable site attributes, and (2) use readily available gridded data to predict and continuously map the range of temperatures that may be available in caves and mines. Our analysis supports qualitative predictions that subterranean winter temperatures are correlated with MAST, that temperatures are warmer and less variable farther from the surface, and that even deep within‐cave temperatures tend to be lower than MAST. Effects of other site attributes (e.g., topography, vegetation, and precipitation) on subterranean temperatures were not detected. We then assessed the plausibility of model‐predicted temperatures using knowledge of winter bat distributions and preferred hibernaculum temperatures. Our model unavoidably simplifies complex subterranean environments and is not intended to explain all variability in subterranean temperatures. Rather, our results offer researchers and managers improved broad‐scale estimates of the geographic distribution of potential hibernaculum conditions compared to reliance on MAST alone. We expect this information to better support range‐scale estimation of winter bat distributions and projection of likely WNS impacts across the west. We suggest that our model predictions should serve as hypotheses to be further tested and refined as additional data become available.

Resilience quantifies the ability of a system to remain in or return to its current state following disturbance. Due to inconsistent terminology and usage of resilience frameworks, quantitative resilience studies are challenging, and resilience is often treated as an abstract concept rather than a measurable system characteristic. We used a novel, spatially explicit stakeholder engagement process to quantify social-ecological resilience to fire, in light of modeled social-ecological fire risk, across the non-fire-adapted Sonoran Desert Ecosystem in Arizona, USA. Depending on its severity and the characteristics of the ecosystem, fire as a disturbance has the potential to drive ecological state change. As a result, fire regime change is of increasing concern as global change and management legacies alter the distribution and flammability of fuels. Because management and use decisions impact resources and ecological processes, social and ecological factors must be evaluated together to predict resilience to fire. We found highest fire risk in the central and eastern portions of the study area, where flammable fuels occur with greater density and frequency and managers reported fewer management resources than in other locations. We found lowest fire resilience in the southeastern portion of the study area, where combined ecological and social factors, including abundant fuels, few management resources, and little evidence of past institutional adaptability, indicated that sites were least likely to retain their current characteristics and permit achievement of current management objectives. Analyzing ecological and social characteristics together permits regional managers to predict the effects of changing fire regimes across large, multi-jurisdictional landscapes and to consider where to direct resources. This study brought social and ecological factors together into a common spatial framework to produce vulnerability maps; our methods may inform researchers and managers in other systems facing novel disturbance and spatially variable resilience.

Ever-increasing human pressures on cave biodiversity have amplified the need for systematic, repeatable, and intensive surveys of cave-dwelling arthropods to formulate evidence-based management decisions. We examined 110 papers (from 1967 to 2018) to: (i) understand how cave-dwelling invertebrates have been sampled; (ii) provide a summary of techniques most commonly applied and appropriateness of these techniques, and; (iii) make recommendations for sampling design improvement. Of the studies reviewed, over half (56) were biological inventories, 43 ecologically focused, seven were techniques papers, and four were conservation studies. Nearly one-half (48) of the papers applied systematic techniques. Few papers (24) provided enough information to repeat the study; of these, only 11 studies included cave maps. Most studies (56) used two or more techniques for sampling cave-dwelling invertebrates. Ten studies conducted ≥10 site visits per cave. The use of quantitative techniques was applied in 43 of the studies assessed. More than one-third (42) included some level of discussion on management. Future studies should employ a systematic study design, describe their methods in sufficient detail as to be repeatable, and apply multiple techniques and site visits. This level of effort and detail is required to obtain the most complete inventories, facilitate monitoring of sensitive cave arthropod populations, and make informed decisions regarding the management of cave habitats. We also identified naming inconsistencies of sampling techniques and provide recommendations towards standardization.

As a multi-jurisdictional, non-fire-adapted region, the Sonoran Desert Ecoregion is a complex, social-ecological system faced increasingly with no-analogue conditions. A diversity of management objectives and activities form the socioecological landscape of fire management. Different managers have different objectives, resources, and constraints, and each therefore applies different activities. As a result, it can be difficult to predict the regional consequences of changing fire regimes. We interviewed and surveyed managers of 53 million acres of government-managed lands across the Sonoran Desert Ecoregion of Arizona, asking them to describe their management objectives and activities as well as expected changes in the face of projected fire regime change across the region. If current activities were deemed unlikely to meet objectives into the future, this represents a likely adaptation turning point, where new activities are required in order to meet objectives. If no potential activity will meet an objective, it may be necessary to select a new objective, indicating an adaptation tipping point. Here, we report which current objectives and activities are deemed by managers most likely and least likely to succeed. We also discuss constraints reported by managers from different jurisdictions. We find that agriculture, military, and resource extraction objectives are perceived by managers as most likely to be met, whereas conservation of natural and cultural resources is considered least likely to be achieved. Federal land managers reported higher likelihood of both achieving current objectives and adopting new activities than did non-federal land managers. This study illustrates how rapid global change is affecting the ability of land managers differing in missions, mandates, and resources to achieve their central objectives, as well as the constraints and opportunities they face. Our results indicate that changing environmental conditions are unlikely to affect all management entities equally and for some jurisdictions may result in adaptation turning points or tipping points in natural and cultural resource conservation.

Changes in fire frequency, size, and severity are driving ecological transformations in many systems. In arid and semi-arid regions that are adapted to fire, long-term fire exclusion by managers leads to declines in fire frequency, altered fire size distribution, and increased proportion of high severity fires. In arid and semi-arid systems where fire was historically rare, factors such as invasion by highly combustible non-native plants elevate fire frequency and size, elevating mortality of native species. Altered temperature and precipitation regimes may exacerbate these changes by increasing biomass and flammability. Current transformation in fire dynamics carry social as well as ecological consequences. Human cultures, livelihoods, values, and management behaviors are attuned to fire dynamics. Changes can make it costly or impossible to maintain traditional landscape use and economic activities. We review the ecological and social science literature to examine drivers of altered fire dynamics in arid and semi-arid systems worldwide and the conditions representing fire dynamics thresholds—points at which altered conditions may make it difficult or impossible to achieve management objectives, even via traditional adaptive management focusing on alternative management activities to achieve objectives. Such thresholds could force a wholesale shift in management objectives and practices and a new approach to adaptive management that redefines objectives when no viable adaptive action can be undertaken.

Conservation practitioners have long recognized ecological connectivity as a global priority for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. In the early years of conservation science, ecologists extended principles of island biogeography to assess connectivity based on source patch proximity and other metrics derived from binary maps of habitat. From 2006 to 2008, the late Brad McRae introduced circuit theory as an alternative approach to model gene flow and the dispersal or movement routes of organisms. He posited concepts and metrics from electrical circuit theory as a robust way to quantify movement across multiple possible paths in a landscape, not just a single least-cost path or corridor. Circuit theory offers many theoretical, conceptual, and practical linkages to conservation science. We reviewed 459 recent studies citing circuit theory or the open-source software Circuitscape. We focused on applications of circuit theory to the science and practice of connectivity conservation, including topics in landscape and population genetics, movement and dispersal paths of organisms, anthropogenic barriers to connectivity, fire behavior, water flow, and ecosystem services. Circuit theory is likely to have an effect on conservation science and practitioners through improved insights into landscape dynamics, animal movement, and habitat-use studies and through the development of new software tools for data analysis and visualization. The influence of circuit theory on conservation comes from the theoretical basis and elegance of the approach and the powerful collaborations and active user community that have emerged. Circuit theory provides a springboard for ecological understanding and will remain an important conservation tool for researchers and practitioners around the globe.Aplicaciones de la Teoría de Circuitos a la Conservación y a la Ciencia de la Conectividad Resumen Quienes practican la conservación han reconocido durante mucho tiempo que la conectividad ecológica es una prioridad mundial para la preservación de la biodiversidad y el funcionamiento del ecosistema. Durante los primeros años de la ciencia de la conservación los ecólogos difundieron los principios de la biografía de islas para evaluar la conectividad con base en la proximidad entre el origen y el fragmento, así como otras medidas derivadas de los mapas binarios de los hábitats. Entre 2006 y 2008 el fallecido Brad McRae introdujo la teoría de circuitos como una estrategia alternativa para modelar el flujo génico y la dispersión o las rutas de movimiento de los organismos. McRae propuso conceptos y medidas de la teoría de circuitos eléctricos como una manera robusta para cuantificar el movimiento a lo largo de múltiples caminos posibles en un paisaje, no solamente a lo largo de un camino o corredor de menor costo. La teoría de circuitos ofrece muchos enlaces teóricos, conceptuales y prácticos con la ciencia de la conservación. Revisamos 459 estudios recientes que citan la teoría de circuitos o el software de fuente abierta Circuitscape. Nos enfocamos en las aplicaciones de la teoría de circuitos a la ciencia y a la práctica de la conservación de la conectividad, incluyendo temas como la genética poblacional y del paisaje, movimiento y caminos de dispersión de los organismos, barreras antropogénicas de la conectividad, comportamiento ante incendios, flujo del agua, y servicios ambientales. La teoría de circuitos probablemente tenga un efecto sobre la ciencia de la conservación y quienes la practican por medio de una percepción mejorada de las dinámicas del paisaje, el movimiento animal, y los estudios de uso de hábitat, y por medio del desarrollo de nuevas herramientas de software para el análisis de datos y su visualización. La influencia de la teoría de circuitos sobre la conservación viene de la base teórica y la elegancia de la estrategia y de las colaboraciones fuertes y la comunidad activa de usuarios que han surgido recientemente. La teoría de circuitos proporciona un trampolín para el entendimiento ecológico y seguirá siendo una importante herramienta de conservación para los investigadores y practicantes en todo el mundo.保护实践者长期以来一直将生态连接度视为保护生物多样性和生态系统功能的当务之急。在保护科学发展早期, 生态学家将岛屿生物地理学的原理进行扩展, 基于源斑块邻近度和其它来自二元生境图的指标来评估连接度。2006 年到2008 年, 已故的Brad McRae 引入了电路理论, 作为模拟基因流和生物体扩散或移动路径的新方法。他用电路理论中的概念和指标开发了一种稳健的方法来量化景观中多种可能的移动路径, 而这不只是一条最低成本的路径或廊道。电路理论为保护科学提供了许多理论、概念和实践方面的联系。我们综述了近期引用电路理论或是开源软件Circuitscape的459 项研究, 重点关注电路理论在连接度保护科学与实践中的应用, 包括景观和种群遗传学、生物体运动和扩散路径、连接度的人为障碍、火灾、水流和生态系统服务等问题。电路理论通过帮助理解景观动力学、动物移动和生境利用研究, 以及开发新的数据分析和可视化软件工具, 影响着保护科学和实践者。电路理论对保护的影响来自于该方法的理论基础和优雅性, 以及现已出现的强大的合作队伍和活跃的用户群体。电路理论为生态学理解提供了跳板, 并将继续作为全球研究人员和实践者的重要保护工具。翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚.

In the context of concerns about degrading forest health, increasing fire activity, and practical restoration alternatives, we analyzed 20 years of data on the response of mixed conifer forest stands in the Sierra Nevada, California to two distinctly different management approaches. Specifically, we used a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to evaluate the direction and magnitude of changes in forest structure and fuel variables in areas treated with prescribed fire as well as untreated forest stands in the Lake Tahoe basin. Counter to many regional studies, our results indicated that treated and long-unaltered, untreated areas may be moving in a similar direction. Treated and untreated areas experienced declines in tree density, increases in the size of the average individual, and losses of surface fuels in most size classes. The number of large trees increased in untreated areas, but decreased in treated areas. Our results suggested that untreated areas may be naturally recovering from the large disturbances associated with resource extraction and development in the late 1800s, and that natural recovery processes, including self thinning, are taking hold. Given the high cost and broad extent of treatment required to restore forest health, management approaches that promote naturally recovering landscapes may complement ongoing and planned fuel reduction treatments. Deliberately managing for natural processes to proceed unimpeded may also be important for maintaining or increasing forest heterogeneity, resilience, and biodiversity.

Changes to animal movement in response to human‐induced changes to the environment are of growing concern in conservation. Most research on this problem has focused on terrestrial endotherms, but changes to herpetofaunal movement are also of concern given their limited dispersal abilities and specialized thermophysiological requirements. Animals in the desert region of the southwestern United States are faced with environmental alterations driven by development (e.g., solar energy facilities) and climate change. Here, we study the movement ecology of a desert species of conservation concern, the Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii). We collected weekly encounter locations of marked desert tortoises during the active (nonhibernation) seasons in 2013–2015, and used those data to discriminate movements among activity centers from those within them. We then modeled the probability of movement among activity centers using a suite of covariates describing characteristics of tortoises, natural and anthropogenic landscape features, vegetation, and weather. Multimodel inference indicated greatest support for a model that included individual tortoise characteristics, landscape features, and weather. After controlling for season, date, age, and sex, we found that desert tortoises were more likely to move among activity centers when they were further from minor roads and in the vicinity of barrier fencing; we also found that movement between activity centers was more common during periods of greater rainfall and during periods where cooler temperatures coincided with lower rainfall. Our findings indicate that landscape alterations and climate change both have the potential to impact movements by desert tortoises during the active season. This study provides an important baseline against which we can detect future changes in tortoise movement behavior.

Estimation of connectivity for multiple species could increase the efficiency of resource management and elucidate trade-offs among maintenance of connectivity for different taxa. We identified potential areas of high connectivity for 5 species of mammals on the Navajo Nation and adjacent lands in Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico, USA: mountain lion (Puma concolor), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), American black bear (Ursus americanus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). These species were identified by the Navajo Nation as relevant to the benefit of their present and future generations. We used telemetry data to calculate utilization distributions, derive model permeability (the probability that a given location facilitates animal movement), and assess connectivity (the realization of permeability across a landscape) for desert bighorn sheep, black bear, and pronghorn. We based models of connectivity for mountain lion and mule deer on expert-ide...

Habitat loss and modification are causing declines in the abundance and distribution of plant and animal species, yet robust information on which to base management and regulatory decisions for these species frequently is not available. Thamnophis gigas (Giant Gartersnakes), a species listed as threatened under the U.S. and California Endangered Species Acts, is strongly associated with aquatic ecosystems in the Great Central Valley (California), yet many aspects of its ecology remain poorly understood. We evaluated relationships between environmental attributes and occupancy of T. gigas and predicted the species' occupancy across ∼300,000 ha in the northern Central Valley. We trapped T. gigas at 159 sites and characterized land cover, land use, and soil type at each site. Occupancy of T. gigas was strongly and negatively associated with elevation and strongly and positively associated with canal density and the proportion of rice and perennial wetland. We also found a strong and previously undes...

Increasingly, point-count data are used to estimate occupancy, the probability that a species is present at a given location; occupancy accounts for imperfect detection, the probability that a species is detected given that it is present. To our knowledge, effects of sampling duration on inferences from models of bird occupancy have not been evaluated. Our objective was to determine whether changing count duration from 5 to 8 min affected inferences about the occupancy of birds sampled in the Chesapeake Bay Lowlands (eastern United States) and the central and western Great Basin (western United States) in 2012 and 2013. We examined the proportion of species (two doves, one cuckoo, two swifts, five hummingbirds, 11 woodpeckers, and 122 passerines) for which estimates of detection probability were ≥ 0.3. For species with single-season detection probabilities ≥ 0.3, we compared occupancy estimates derived from 5- and 8-min counts. We also compared estimates for three species sampled annually for 5 yr in the central Great Basin. Detection probabilities based on both the 5- and 8-min counts were ≥ 0.3 for 40% ± 3% of the species in an ecosystem. Extending the count duration from 5 to 8 min increased the detection probability to ≥ 0.3 for 5% ± 0.5% of the species. We found no difference in occupancy estimates that were based on 5- versus 8-min counts for species sampled over two or five consecutive years. However, for 97% of species sampled over 2 yr, precision of occupancy estimates that were based on 8-min counts averaged 12% ± 2% higher than those based on 5-min counts. We suggest that it may be worthwhile to conduct a pilot season to determine the number of locations and surveys needed to achieve detection probabilities that are sufficiently high to estimate occupancy for species of interest.

Powerful innovations can occur when a concept is taken from one field and used to solve a problem in an unrelated field. In fact, it has been shown that as the distance between a problem solver's field of technical expertise and the focal field of a problem increase, so does the probability of success. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Off-highway vehicle (OHV) use is popular for outdoor recreation across the United States, with especially high levels of participation in Arizona and the American Southwest. Road networks related to OHV recreation have the potential to influence kit fox (Vulpes macrotis) space use intensity. To evaluate the potential impacts of OHV road networks to kit fox space use, we conducted a study during 2010–2013 in 2 areas of the Sonoran Desert in central Arizona. We used an observational approach to determine the importance of road density to kit fox space use, relative to other measured environmental variables. We monitored 22 collared individuals and used linear mixed models and an information-theoretic approach to develop models of intensity of space use for seasons of relatively low (e.g., 33% of yearly OHV use observed) and high (e.g., 67% of yearly OHV use observed) OHV use. We found road density to be the most important predictor of space use for kit foxes, relative to other measured environmental variables. Space use was negatively associated with road density during winter (Oct–Mar), which coincided with kit fox breeding, denning, and pupping activities and was the season of relatively higher OHV use. Road density in OHV use areas is an important seasonal predictor of, and can negatively influence, kit fox space use. OHV road networks may lead to effective habitat loss for kit foxes and managers must consider how OHV recreational opportunities should be balanced with habitat conservation for species like kit fox. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

Under rapid landscape change, there is a significant need to expand and connect protected areas (PAs) to prevent further loss of biodiversity and preserve ecological functions across broad geographies. We used a model of landscape resistance and electronic circuit theory to estimate patterns of ecological flow among existing PAs in the western United States. We applied these results to areas previously identified as having high conservation value to distinguish those best positioned to maintain and enhance ecological connectivity and integrity. We found that current flow centrality was highest and effective resistance lowest in areas that spanned the border between southern Oregon and Idaho, and in northern Arizona and central Utah. Compared to other federal jurisdictions, Bureau of Land Management lands contributed most to ecological connectivity, forming “connective tissue” among existing PAs. Our models and maps can inform new conservation strategies and critical land allocation decisions, within or among jurisdictions.

Given the rapid pace of renewable energy development, there is need to assess impacts of mitigation-driven translocations on sensitive species, including federally protected Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) distributed widely across a global solar energy hotspot. We monitored 215 tortoises over 3 years to evaluate translocation effects on temperature, condition, growth, and mortality of tortoises adjacent to the world's largest solar thermal plant located in southern California. On the basis of generalized estimating equation mixed models, maximum daily tortoise temperature increased with environmental temperature then leveled off at highest environmental temperatures for all three groups (translocated, resident, and control) likely due to behavioral thermoregulation. This pattern was consistent among groups, but translocated tortoises had higher average maximum daily temperature and durations above 35 °C than resident and control tortoises in the first month post-translocation, with smaller effects in the second and fourth months, and no differences in subsequent years. During the first year, adult translocated males had higher temperatures than females. Average percent changes in body condition and carapace length increased post-translocation for all groups and there were no differences in mortality probability among groups or years. Based on the relatively short-term thermal effects, and lack of negative effects on condition, growth, or mortality, our study suggests relatively minimal impacts following short-distance translocation releases in spring. Our study also serves as a unique example and first step for science-based, mitigation-driven translocations implemented to evaluate and reduce effects of translocation from solar energy development on sensitive species.

Strategic placement of fuel treatments across large landscapes is an important step to mitigate the collective effects of fires interacting over broad spatial and temporal extents. On landscapes where highly invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is increasing fire activity, such an approach could help maintain landscape resilience. Our objectives are to 1) model and map fire connectivity on a cheatgrass-invaded landscape, as well as the centrality of large cheatgrass patches, in order to inform a landscape fuel treatment (i.e., a network of greenstrips); and 2) evaluate the modeled greenstrip network based on changes to cheatgrass patch centrality. Our analysis covers 485-km2 on the Kaibab National Forest in Northern Arizona. We apply a circuit-theoretic model of fire connectivity between all pairs of large cheatgrass patches. Based on these results, we calculate a measure of centrality for each patch to inform fuel treatment placement. We evaluate the modeled greenstrip network by comparing the pre- and post-treatment centrality of each patch. After modeling fire connectivity across the landscape, we identify 25 of 68 large cheatgrass patches with relatively high centrality. When we simulate greenstrips around these focal patches, model results suggest that they are effective in reducing the centrality for at least 19 of the 25 patches. Fire connectivity models provide robust network centrality measures, which can help generate multiple, landscape fuel treatment alternatives and facilitate on-the-ground decisions. The extension of these methods is well suited for landscape fuels management in other vegetation communities and ecosystems.

Since its inception, conservation biology has inspired thousands of students, spurred the creation of new initiatives, organizations and agencies, and informed conservation efforts worldwide. Nevertheless, global biodiversity loss is accelerating (Butchart et al. 2010), and our field needs to change to keep pace with mounting challenges. Conservation would benefit if scientists more enthusiastically pushed the institutional boundaries of our field through their efforts to expand their own and others’ career options and professional opportunities. We discuss several key areas of expansion, a critical subset of a longer list of comprehensive solutions. We aim to spark productive conversation and self-reflection to galvanize individual and institutional change in our field. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

The loss and modification of freshwater ecosystems has led to high rates of imperilment for freshwater species. The Giant Gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) is among the species that have suffered declines in abundance and spatial distribution and is currently listed as a threatened species by the U.S. government and the State of California. Conservation and management of populations of T. gigas are hampered by a lack of information on its demography. Without estimates of demographic parameters, the status of the population is difficult to characterize, and identifying the parameters to target in management planning is problematic. We used capture–recapture data from two populations in the Great Central Valley of California to estimate annual survival probability. We also evaluated hypothesized causes of variation in survival probability among individuals and among years. Model-selection results for the population in the American Basin indicated that females have a higher survival probability than males and t...

Understanding where and when on the landscape fire is likely to burn (fire likelihood) and the predicted responses of valued resources (fire effects) will lead to more effective management of wildfire risk in multiple ecosystem types. Fire is a contagious and highly unpredictable process, and an analysis of fire connectivity that incorporates stochasticity may help predict fire likelihood across large extents. We developed a model of fire connectivity based on electrical circuit theory, which is a probabilistic approach to modeling ecological flows. We first parameterized our model to reflect the synergistic influences of fuels, landscape properties, and winds on fire spread in the lower Sonoran Desert of southwestern Arizona, and then defined this landscape as an interconnected network through which to model flow (i.e., fire spread). We interpreted the mapped outputs as fire likelihood and used historical burned area data to evaluate our results. Expected fire effects were characterized based on the degree to which future fire exposure might negatively impact native plant community recovery, taking into account the impact of repeated fire and major vegetation associations. We explored fire effects within habitat for the endangered Sonoran pronghorn antelope and designated wilderness. Model results indicated that fire likelihood was higher in lower elevations, and in areas with lower slopes and topographic roughness. Fire likelihood and effects were predicted to be high in 21% of the currently occupied range of the Sonoran pronghorn and 15% of the additional habitat considered suitable. Across 16 designated wilderness areas, highest predicted fire likelihood and effects fell within low elevation wilderness areas that overlapped large fire perimeters that occurred in 2005. As ongoing changes in climate and land cover are poised to alter the fire regime across extensive and ecologically important areas in the lower Sonoran Desert, an analysis of fire likelihood and effects can contribute new and important information to fire and fuels management. Our novel approach to modeling fire connectivity addresses challenges in quantifying and communicating wildfire risk and is applicable to other ecosystems and management issues globally.

There is broad consensus that wildfire activity is likely to increase in western US forests and woodlands over the next century. Therefore, spatial predictions of the potential for large wildfires have immediate and growing relevance to near- and long-term research, planning, and management objectives. Fuels, climate, weather, and the landscape all exert controls on wildfire occurrence and spread, but the dynamics of these controls vary from daily to decadal timescales. Accurate spatial predictions of large wildfires should therefore strive to integrate across these variables and timescales. Here, we describe a high spatial resolution dataset (250-m pixel) of the probability of large wildfire (> 405 ha) across all western US forests and woodlands, from 2005 to the present. The dataset is automatically updated on a weekly basis and in near real-time (i.e., up to the present week) using Google Earth Engine and a "Continuous Integration" pipeline. Each image in the dataset is the output of a machine-learning algorithm, trained on 10 independent, random samples of historic small and large wildfires, and represents the predicted probability of an individual pixel burning in a large fire. This novel workflow is able to integrate the short-term dynamics of fuels and weather into weekly predictions, while also integrating longer-term dynamics of fuels, climate, and the landscape. As a near real-time product, the dataset can provide operational fire managers with immediate, on-the-ground information to closely monitor changing potential for large wildfire occurrence and spread. It can also serve as a foundational dataset for longer-term planning and research, such as strategic targeting of fuels management, fire-smart development at the wildland urban interface, and analysis of trends in wildfire potential over time. Weekly large fire probability GeoTiff products from 2005 through 2017 are archived on Figshare online digital repository with the DOI 10.6084/m9.figshare.5765967 (available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5765967.v1). Near real-time weekly GeoTiff products and the entire dataset from 2005 on are also continuously uploaded to a Google Cloud Storage bucket at https://console.cloud.google.com/storage/wffr-preds/V1, and also available free of charge with a Google account. Near real-time products and the long-term archive are also available to registered Google Earth Engine (GEE) users as public GEE assets, and can be accessed with the image collection ID "users/mgray/wffr-preds" within GEE.