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We characterize the complete joint posterior distribution over spatially-varying basal traction and and ice softness parameters of an ice sheet model from observations of surface speed by using stochastic variational inference combined with natural gradient descent to find an approximating variational distribution. By placing a Gaussian process prior over the parameters and casting the problem in terms of eigenfunctions of a kernel, we gain substantial control over prior assumptions on parameter smoothness and length scale, while also rendering the inference tractable. In a synthetic example, we find that this method recovers known parameters and accounts for mutual indeterminacy, both of which can influence observed surface speed. In an application to Helheim Glacier in Southeast Greenland, we show that our method scales to glacier-sized problems. We find that posterior uncertainty in regions of slow flow is high regardless of the choice of observational noise model.

Accurate maps of irrigation are essential for understanding and managing water resources. We present a new method of mapping irrigation and demonstrate its accuracy for the state of Montana from years 2000-2019. The method is based off of an ensemble of convolutional neural networks that use reflectance information from Landsat imagery to classify irrigated pixels, that we call IrrMapper-U-Net. The methodology does not rely on extensive feature engineering and does not condition the classification with land use information from existing geospatial datasets. The ensemble does not need exhaustive hyperparameter tuning and the analysis pipeline is lightweight enough to be implemented on a personal computer. Furthermore, the proposed methodology provides an estimate of the uncertainty associated with classification. We evaluated our methodology and the resulting irrigation maps using a highly accurate novel spatially-explicit ground truth data set, using county-scale USDA surveys of irrigation extent, and using cadastral surveys. We found that that our method outperforms other methods of mapping irrigation in Montana in terms of overall accuracy and precision. We found that our method agrees better statewide with the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Survey estimates of irrigated area compared to other methods, and has far fewer errors of commission in rainfed agriculture areas. The method learns to mask clouds and ignore Landsat 7 scan-line failures without supervision, reducing the need for preprocessing data. This methodology has the potential to be applied across the entire United States and for the complete Landsat record.

Basal motion is the primary mechanism for ice flux outside Antarctica, yet a widely applicable model for predicting it in the absence of retrospective observations remains elusive. This is due to the difficulty in both observing small-scale bed properties and predicting a time-varying water pressure on which basal motion putatively depends. We take a Bayesian approach to these problems by coupling models of ice dynamics and subglacial hydrology and conditioning on observations of surface velocity in southwestern Greenland to infer the posterior probability distributions for eight spatially and temporally constant parameters governing the behavior of both the sliding law and hydrologic model. Because the model is computationally expensive, classical MCMC sampling is intractable. We skirt this issue by training a neural network as a surrogate that approximates the model at a sliver of the computational cost. We find that surface velocity observations establish strong constraints on model parameters relative to a prior distribution and also elucidate correlations, while the model explains 60% of observed variance. However, we also find that several distinct configurations of the hydrologic system and stress regime are consistent with observations, underscoring the need for continued data collection and model development.

We develop a probabilistic method for tracking glacier surface motion based on time-lapse imagery, which works by sequentially resampling a stochastic state-space model according to a likelihood determined through correlation between reference and test images. The method is robust due to its natural handling of periodic occlusion and its capacity to follow multiple hypothesis displacements between images, and can improve estimates of velocity magnitude and direction through the inclusion of observations from an arbitrary number of cameras. We apply the method to an annual record of images from two cameras near the terminus of Columbia Glacier. While the method produces velocities at daily resolution, we verify our results by comparing eleven-day means to TerraSar-X. We find that Columbia Glacier transitions between a winter state characterized by moderate velocities and little temporal variability, to an early summer speed-up in which velocities are sensitive to increases in melt- and rainwater, to a fall slowdown, where velocities drop to below their winter mean and become insensitive to external forcing, a pattern consistent with the development and collapse of efficient and inefficient subglacial hydrologic networks throughout the year., Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures

In regions where ice sheets are increasing in mass, there is a 50-200 m layer of old snow called firn which does not melt in the summer months. The density of firn tracks the transformation of snow into glacial ice at approximately 917 kg m^-3. The process of firn densification is important in at least two ways: 1) it can be a dominant component in the observed rate of change of the surface elevation, and 2) storage of liquid water in the lower density firn layer is now considered a critical component in the mass balance of ice sheets. If the rate of change of surface elevation can be equated with the rate of change in the mass of the ice sheet, we would have an excellent means of monitoring ice sheet mass balance. However, knowledge of firn densification rates is needed to make the inference of mass rate of change from volume rate of change. Several firn models have been created for areas without melt. We have reformulated these models with the finite-element software package FEniCS and integrated them with an enthalpy-formulation. This integration allows us to account for the melting and subsequent re-freezing of firn layers into ice lenses., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures