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In June 2021, Brazil has become the 130th member of the Nagoya Protocol (NP). This brings both challenges and opportunities. Despite being a megadiverse country with approximately 50 thousand documented flora species, its biodiversity remains virtually untapped due to insufficient mapping and research programs, inefficient governmental support and lack of cooperation with emerging biodiversity markets. Here, we explore opportunities and challenges for Brazil as a new member of the NP. We present ways forward for Brazil to shift from an unprocessed native species resource provider to a developer of new products based on the genetic resources from the wide range of its native species. We stress the need for finding a balance between material and immaterial values of biodiversity. In addition, we call for investments to develop knowledge (taxonomy, conservation, sustainable use), alternative market niches, infrastructure, skills, regulatory frameworks and efficient operational structures. As science and technology continue to develop novel modes for the use of biodiversity, it is important to monitor those developments to ensure that benefits are returned and reinvested in the wellbeing of traditional communities where the biodiversity knowledge originated. To achieve this goal, the country must develop its National Benefit Sharing Fund aimed at supporting the roots of biodiversity knowledge.

Brazil’s transportation infrastructure did not follow the country’s agricultural development and the macro-logistics operations still rely on trucking. Even with a lack of roads, the service areas of the ports on the Atlantic coast, particularly the port of Santos, expanded to central Brazil, the country’s most productive agricultural area. Recently, the Federal Government released mid-term plans to build railways to reduce transportation costs until 2035. However, no simulation about port regionalization and competitiveness was performed. This research evaluated the effectiveness of the proposed transportation infrastructure regarding transportation cost and new routes that can reshape the ports’ influence areas. Our geographically explicit model used the Dinamica_EGO modeling platform and PostgreSQL, fed by official public data from transportation and agriculture authorities. Considering the hypothesis that new railways can increase port competitiveness, we computed scenarios considering the planned 2035 infrastructure and compared them to the current situation. The findings showed that the Ferrogrão railway can effectively reduce transport costs, therefore changing the spatial configuration of macro-logistics basins. In conclusion, a geospatial model can predict short-cheaper routes, port regionalization, and competitiveness regarding the geographic aspects of the supply chain. The long-distance and importance of Brazilian agriculture exportation justify and value the investigation.

The Amazon Forest is a major locus for carbon and water cycling in the climate system whose function has been degraded in recent decades by land use and climate change. Most studies of Amazonia’s carbon balance have been limited by sparse sampling. We measured 742 atmospheric vertical profiles of CO2 and CO over four regions of Amazonia from 2010 through 2020. We estimate that Amazon carbon emissions increased from 0.24±0.19 PgC y-1 in 2010-18 to 0.44±0.22 in 2019 and 0.52±0.22 PgC y-1 in 2020. During these years, increases were also observed in deforestation (79% and 74%) and forest burned area (14% and 42%). Field notifications for illegal deforestation and related crimes dropped by 42%, while fines paid for judgments held fell by 89%. Carbon losses during 2019 and 2020 were comparable to losses in the record warm El Nino event of 2015-16, but this time with usual to moderate Oceanic Ninõ Index. 2020 showed 12% decrease in precipitation indicating also a climate impact in carbon emissions. The changes during 2019 and 2020 were mainly due to the western Amazonia becoming also a carbon source. We hypothesize that the consequences of the collapse in enforcement led to increase in deforestation, biomass burning and degradation producing net carbon losses and enhancing drying and warming of forest regions.

A recent proposal to regulate mining within Indigenous Lands (ILs) threatens people and the unique ecosystems of Brazil's Legal Amazon. Here, we show that this new policy could eventually affect more than 863,000 km2 of tropical forests—20% more than under current policies—assuming all known mineral deposits will be developed and impacts of mining on forests extend 70 km from lease boundaries. Not only are these forests home to some of the world's most culturally diverse communities, they also provide at least US $5 billion each year to the global economy, producing food, mitigating carbon emissions, and regulating climate for agriculture and energy production. It is unclear whether new mines within ILs will be required to compensate for their direct and indirect environmental and social impacts but failing to do so will have considerable environmental and social consequences., Graphical Abstract, Highlights • Mining within Indigenous Lands may impact 20% more forests than the current scenario • Proposed bill could affect forests providing at least $5 billion in ecosystem services annually • Impact assessments must comply with best practices to safeguard ecosystems and people, Science for Society In February 2020, Brazilian President Bolsonaro signed a bill (PL 191/2020) that would permit mining inside Indigenous Lands, a unique category of protected area covering 23% of the Legal Amazon. In this study, we assess the potential impacts of this proposed legislation. We find that this proposal threatens 863,000 km2 of Amazon forests. These forests are home to 222 culturally unique indigenous groups and provide more than US $5 billion annually to society. The social and environmental impacts caused by new mines will unlikely be mitigated given the lack of environmental requirements and safeguards to indigenous rights in the current proposal. This policy could have long-lasting negative effects for Brazil's socio-biodiversity., The impacts of proposed legislation to allow mining within Indigenous Lands in the Brazilian Amazon could affect a large extent of forests—up to 20% more than the potentially affected area under current trends of mining expansion. These forests are home to 222 culturally unique indigenous groups, and it is estimated to provide more than US $5 billion annually in benefits for society; their loss will impact Brazil's socio-biodiversity.

Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFP), contribute to the livelihoods of over 6 million people in Amazon and over 4 million people in the Cerrado biomes. Here we explored data on the socio-ecology of extractivist landscapes at the biome scale in Amazonia and Cerrado in Brazil. We found that there are market chains for 45 and 58 NTFPs in Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado, respectively. Although there is a vast repertoire of empirical data for characterizing sociobiodiversity in Brazil this body of literature is mostly case-study driven, focusing on a very limited number of products and using different methodological approaches. Therefore, although there is a robust research legacy meaningful comparisons are very challenging. So far we have a fragmented view of vegetal extractivist dynamics at the biome scale. Our work contributes to upscale from the socioecology of individual NTFP to the biome scale encompassing a variety of products and its associated livelihoods.

Este capítulo y el siguiente examinan estos y otros impulsores y procesos desde el punto de vista de las ciencias sociales. Una gran cantidad de estudios en economía política, sociología, eco-nomía, antropología y otros campos han docu-mentado los determinantes sociales y los impac-tos del deterioro ambiental en la Amazonía. Es importante destacar que han demostrado que esas fuerzas socioeconómicas operan no solo a nivel local y nacional, sino también a escala transnacional.

The Brazilian Cerrado is one of the most biodiverse savannas in the world, yet 46% of its original cover has been cleared to make way for crops and pastures. These extensive land-use transitions (LUTs) are expected to influence regional climate by reducing evapotranspiration (ET), increasing land surface temperature (LST), and ultimately reducing precipitation. Here, we quantify the impacts of LUTs on ET and LST in the Cerrado by combining MODIS satellite data with annual land use and land cover maps from 2006 to 2019. We performed regression analyses to quantify the effects of six common LUTs on ET and LST across the entire gradient of Cerrado landscapes. Results indicate that clearing forests for cropland or pasture increased average LST by ~3.5°C and reduced mean annual ET by 44% and 39%, respectively. Transitions from woody savannas to cropland or pasture increased average LST by 1.9°C and reduced mean annual ET by 27% and 21%, respectively. Converting native grasslands to cropland or pasture increased average LST by 0.9 and 0.6°C, respectively. Conversely, grassland-to-pasture transitions increased mean annual ET by 15%. To date, land changes have caused a 10% reduction in water recycled to the atmosphere annually and a 0.9°C increase in average LST across the biome, compared to the historic baseline under native vegetation. Global climate changes from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will only exacerbate these effects. Considering potential future scenarios, we found that abandoning deforestation control policies or allowing legal deforestation to continue (at least 28.4 Mha) would further reduce yearly ET (by -9% and -3%, respectively) and increase average LST (by +0.7 and +0.3°C, respectively) by 2050. In contrast, policies encouraging zero deforestation and restoration of the 5.2 Mha of illegally deforested areas would partially offset the warming and drying impacts of land-use change.O Cerrado brasileiro é uma das savanas mais biodiversas do mundo. Apesar disso, 46% da sua cobertura original foi desmatada para dar lugar a cultivos agrícolas e pastos. Estas extensas transições de uso do solo (LUT) têm o potencial de influenciar o clima regional, reduzindo a evapotranspiração (ET), aumentando a temperatura da superfície terrestre (LST) e por fim reduzindo a precipitação. O objetivo deste estudo foi quantificar os impactos de LUTs sobre ET e LST no Cerrado, combinando dados do satélite MODIS com mapas anuais de uso e cobertura do solo de 2006-2019. Foram realizadas análises de regressão para quantificar os efeitos de seis LUTs usuais sobre ET e LST, ao longo de todo o gradiente de paisagens do Cerrado. Os resultados indicaram que a retirada de florestas para dar lugar à agricultura ou pastagem aumentou a LST média em ~3.5°C e reduziu a ET média anual em 44% e 39%, respectivamente. Transições de formações savânicas para agricultura ou pastagem aumentaram a LST média em 1.9°C e reduziram a ET média anual em 27% e 21%, respectivamente. A conversão de campos nativos para agricultura ou pastagem aumentou a LST média em 0.9 e 0.6°C, respectivamente. Em contrapartida, transições de formações campestres nativas para pastagens aumentaram a ET média anual em 15%. Até o momento, as mudanças de uso do solo causaram redução de 10% da água reciclada para a atmosfera anualmente e aumento de 0.9°C da LST média ao longo do bioma, em comparação com a linha de base histórica sob vegetação nativa. As mudanças climáticas globais decorrentes do aumento das concentrações atmosféricas de gases do efeito estufa irão exacerbar esses efeitos. Considerando potenciais cenários futuros, observou-se que o abandono das políticas de controle do desmatamento ou o avanço do desmatamento legal (ao menos 28.4 Mha) reduziriam a ET anual (em −9% e −3%, respectivamente) e aumentariam a LST média (em +0.7 e +0.3ºC, respectivamente) até 2050. Por outro lado, políticas que promovam desmatamento zero e restauração dos 5.2 Mha de áreas ilegalmente desmatadas compensariam parte dos impactos de aquecimento e seca causados por alterações de uso do solo.

From the 1970s on, the Amazon experienced its deepest transformation, becoming a commodity and energy provider for both domestic and international markets, through extraction of natural resources. Living conditions barely improved, and social conflict and violence became widespread, particularly affecting Indigenous peoples and local communities. Conservation efforts also became globalized and achieved significant results. Brazil’s 84% reduction in deforestation from 2005-2012, based on an integrated strategy with high political priority, provides an important case study that can support future policies across the basin. These gains were reversed in recent years, and unsustainable extractivist policies generally prevailed over conservation and the sustainable use of biodiversity in the whole Amazon basin (Chapter 18).

Significant research efforts have been devoted to characterizing smallholding productive systems and assessing the relative contribution of small-scale farming to global food production. However, there is a noted paucity of studies addressing the determinants of and contributors to income generation of smallholders around the world, particularly in the Amazon forest. Moreover, while road development in the Amazon has been heavily discussed, the impacts of infrastructure projects, such as road paving, on smallholders’ livelihoods remain uncertain. Here we explore the relevance of agriculture, livestock rearing and collection of non-timber forest products (NTFP) as income providers of smallholders in the Amazon forest in Madre de Dios-Peru, after the paving of Interoceanic South Highway (ISH), a large infrastructural project connecting Acre state in Brazil with Cusco in Peru. We interviewed 62 smallholder families in an area of 403 km2 along the road from Inapari to Mazuko near the tri-national border of Brazil, Peru and Bolivia. We applied a multinomial statistical model to estimate the proportion of annual net revenue related to each productive system from selected predictor variables. Our results show that smallholders’ net revenue originates from a mix of productive systems including agriculture (rice, corn), livestock rearing (cows) and others (poultry, pigs, sheep) as well as NTFP extractivist activities (Brazil nut). Average net revenue is of USD 35.2 ± 25.7 ha−1yr−1 suggesting that economic returns to smallholders remain low even after the paving of ISH. This indicates that connection with markets alone is not sufficient to increase rents of smallholder families.

Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) contribute to the livelihoods of more than 6 million households in the Brazilian Amazon. Of the three most important NTFPs in the Brazilian Amazon – rubber, Brazil nut, and acai – the latter is the least known, but the one with the most potential and fastest growing markets. Here we map the socioecology of acai extractive systems in the Western Amazon state of Acre, Brazil. We interviewed 49 extractivists in settlements and in the emblematic Extractivist Reserve Chico Mendes (RCM) to model ecology (tree density, productivity) and production chain of acai (prices, costs and net revenues) for an area of 164,000 km2. We estimate a potential annual production of 850 thousand tons for the entire Acre State, which could generate net revenues of US$ 71 million/yr. This is well above the average production of 136 thousand tonnes (over the last 25 years). Net revenues average US$ 57 ha−1.yr−1, with acai contributing, on average, to 17% of the annual household income. In two case studies, we found a diversity of livelihoods comprising agriculture, NTFP collection, and livestock rearing that were grouped in two broad types of extractivist livelihoods: “old” and “new” settlers. Our results suggest that old settlers tend to focus on cattle ranching as their main economic activity, even inside extractive reserves (RESEX). The shift from extractivist activities to cattle ranching undermines the conservation role of this type of protected area. We conclude that without significant financial support in the forms of subsidies and other development programs NTFPs will continue to struggle against the economics of cattle ranching.

Traditional conservation techniques for mapping highly biodiverse areas assume there to be satisfactory knowledge about the geographic distribution of biodiversity. There are, however, large gaps in biological sampling and hence knowledge shortfalls. This problem is even more pronounced in the tropics. Indeed, the use of only a few taxonomic groups or environmental surrogates for modelling biodiversity is not viable in mega-diverse countries, such as Brazil. To overcome these limitations, we developed a comprehensive spatial model that includes phylogenetic information and other several biodiversity dimensions aimed at mapping areas with high relevance for biodiversity conservation. Our model applies a genetic algorithm tool for identifying the smallest possible region within a unique biota that contains the most number of species and phylogenetic diversity, as well as the highest endemicity and phylogenetic endemism. The model successfully pinpoints small highly biodiverse areas alongside regions with knowledge shortfalls where further sampling should be conducted. Our results suggest that conservation strategies should consider several taxonomic groups, the multiple dimensions of biodiversity, and associated sampling uncertainties.

It has been suggested that rainfall in the Amazon decreases if forest loss exceeds some threshold, but the specific value of this threshold remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the relationship between historical deforestation and rainfall at different geographical scales across the Southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA). We also assess impacts of deforestation policy scenarios on the region’s agriculture. Forest loss of up to 55–60% within 28 km grid cells enhances rainfall, but further deforestation reduces rainfall precipitously. This threshold is lower at larger scales (45–50% at 56 km and 25–30% at 112 km grid cells), while rainfall decreases linearly within 224 km grid cells. Widespread deforestation results in a hydrological and economic negative-sum game, because lower rainfall and agricultural productivity at larger scales outdo local gains. Under a weak governance scenario, SBA may lose 56% of its forests by 2050. Reducing deforestation prevents agricultural losses in SBA up to US$ 1 billion annually. Deforestation in the Amazon region has suggested to influence precipitation in a non-linear way. Here, the authors show that forest loss is associated with decreasing precipitation after a scale-dependent threshold is crossed, which can cause stress on agriculture if deforestation is expanded.

A intensificação do processo de aquecimento do planeta causado pelo aumento na emissão de gases do efeito estufa (GEE) representa inúmeros riscos para os ecossistemas naturais. Mudanças na composição atmosférica podem alterar variáveis climáticas em diversas regiões do planeta, dentre elas a Bacia Amazônica Brasileira (BAB). Considerada a maior bacia hidrográfica do planeta, esta região influencia o clima de outras partes do Brasil e da América Latina. Portanto, alterações na BAB podem acarretar em desequilíbrios ambientais em outras regiões. Dentre os efeitos causadas pelas mudanças climáticas, estão as modificações nos padrões de evapotranspiração, importante reguladora do ciclo hidrológico. Neste artigo simulamos as alterações futuras na evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) na BAB decorrentes de um contínuo aumento nas emissões de GEE (cenário RCP 8.5). Utilizamos a plataforma Dinamica EGO para implementar um modelo espacialmente explícito baseado no método de Penman-Monteith padronizado pela FAO. A validação foi realizada comparando estatisticamente os resultados entre as simulações e as observações. Dessa forma, comprovamos que o modelo representa de forma próxima ao real o processo de evapotranspiração na BAB. A sazonalidade projetada da ETo se manteve estatisticamente similar à observada até o ano de 2050, com o aumento da ETo durante a estação seca e diminuição durante a estação chuvosa. A ETo apresentou um padrão de distribuição espacial com maiores valores na porção leste, se estendendo no sentido norte-sul. Este padrão acompanha a distribuição dos valores de temperatura e saldo de radiação, além de coincidir com o arranjo espacial do desmatamento. Um forçamento radiativo de 8,5 w/m² em todo o planeta poderá aumentar a ETo na BAB, devido à elevação nos valores de temperatura e saldo de radiação solar. Este aumento é mais evidente na região nordeste se estendendo progressivamente para o sudoeste da bacia. Ao longo do século 21, as futuras alterações nos padrões de ETo podem trazer grandes problemas para as práticas agrícolas e para o abastecimento hídrico na BAB e em outras partes do País. Em suma, as mudanças climáticas globais, refletindo em alterações na ETo em conjunto com o aumento do desmatamento, podem acarretar em uma desregulação do balanço hídrico. Os nossos resultados reforçam a necessidade da adoção de ações governamentais efetivas com o objetivo de mitigar os efeitos das intensas emissões de GEE

Global sustainability rests on a myriad of benefits provided by natural ecosystems that support human livelihoods and well-being, from biodiversity persistence to climate regulation. The undeniable importance of conserving tropical forests has drawn most of the conservation spotlight towards it. However, open ecosystems such as the Brazilian Campo Rupestre (rupestrian grassland), have been historically overlooked despite their high diversity and key associated ecosystem services. We highlight major current threats to the persistence of the Campo Rupestre emphasizing its ecological, social, cultural, geo-environmental, and economic importance. We call attention to the importance of the Campo Rupestre as a reservoir of biodiversity and ecosystem services and offer priority actions that resulted from discussions involving scientists, industry representatives, environmental managers, and other members of civil society. Proposed actions include efforts related to ecological restoration, sustainable ecotourism, protection of traditional ecological knowledge, identification of emerging research questions, and development of tailored public policies. Such issues are integrated into a framework that collectively represents a road map to safeguard the Campo Rupestre from further degradation and steer its historical overexploitation towards sustainable management. Safeguarding the future of non-forest biomes like this poses a challenge to current paradigms of nature conservation. By establishing priorities and guidelines, we propose an actionable plan, which we hope can support informed decision-making policy towards a sustainable use of the Campo Rupestre. Long Term Ecological Research PELD-CRSC-17 Conselho Nacional de Pesquisas CNPq/MCTI Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo 2013/50155-0, 2010/51307-0, 2019/07773-1

The Brazilian government’s decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited EU concerns regarding the sustainability of Brazil’s sugar sector, hindering the ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. Meanwhile, in the EU, certain conventional biofuels face stricter controls, whilst uncertainty surrounding the commercialisation of more sustainable advanced-biofuels renders bioethanol as a short- to medium-term fix. This paper examines Brazil’s land-use changes and associated greenhouse gas emissions arising from an EU driven ethanol import policy and projections for other 13 biocommodities. Results suggest that Brazil’s sugarcane could satisfy growing ethanol demand and comply with EU environmental criteria, since almost all sugarcane expansion is expected to occur on long-established pasturelands in the South and Midwest. However, expansion of sugarcane is also driven by competition for viable lands with other relevant commodities, mainly soy and beef. As a result, deforestation trends in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes linked to soy and beef production could jeopardize Brazil’s contribution to the Paris agreement with an additional 1 ± 0.3 billion CO2eq tonnes above its First NDC target by 2030. Trade talks with a narrow focus on a single commodity could thus risk unsustainable outcomes, calling for systemic sustainability benchmarks, should the deal be ratified.

The future availability and quality of natural resources essential to life such as ecosystem services and biodiversity depend on the conservation and restoration of native vegetation. The Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) requires farmers to conserve a minimum percentage of native vegetation within their properties as Legal Reserves (LR) as well as riparian forests and hilltops as Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs). To monitor the conservation and facilitate the compliance of these areas, the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) and the Environmental Regularization Program (PRA) were created. However, so far, little is known about farmers' interest in joining the PRA and the actions they intend to take to correct their past illegal deforestation. This article explores a unique dataset comprising of the individual answers of 97 thousand farmers in the states of Para and Mato Grosso given to the Brazilian Forest Service in the process of joining at the national rural environmental registry system. We found that the adherence to the PRA is positively correlated with recognition of the LR deficit and the size of the rural property. Also medium and large landowners and crop producers tend to seek compliance by taking actions outside the farm (compensation), while small farmers and squatters are more likely to act inside their own areas (restoration). Understanding farmers’ interests and options for LR compliance can contribute for the formulation of more effective implementation strategies for PRA and NVPL.

Governing land use to achieve sustainable outcomes is challenging, because land systems manifest complex land use spillovers—i.e. processes by which land use changes or direct interventions in land use (e.g. policy, program, new technologies) in one place have impacts on land use in another place. The ERL issue ‘Focus on Leakage: informing Land-Use Governance in a Tele-coupled World’ builds on discussions in an international expert workshop conducted in Berlin in November 2017 to explore innovative ways to improve our understanding of how governance interventions, new technologies and other factors can affect land-use change both directly and indirectly through spillovers. This editorial starts by clarifying the definitions and relationships between land-use spillover, indirect land use change—a form of spillover where land use change in one place is caused by land use change in another place—leakage—a form of land use spillover, which is caused by an environmental policy (e.g. a conservation or restoration intervention), and the spillover reduces the overall benefits and effectiveness of this intervention—, and land use displacement processes. We then use this terminology to summarize the individual contributions of this special issue and conclude with lessons learned as well as directions for future research.

Brazil's inability to tackle illegal deforestation puts the future of its agribusiness at risk

This paper describes DinamicaVM, the virtual machine that runs applications developed in Dinamica EGO. Dinamica EGO is a framework used in the development of geomodeling applications. Behind its multitude of visual modes and graphic elements, Dinamica EGO runs on top of a virtual machine. This machine – DinamicaVM – offers developers a high-level instruction set architecture, featuring elements such as map and reduce, which are typical in the functional/parallel world. Ensuring that these very expressive components work together efficiently is a challenging endeavor. Dinamica's runtime addresses this challenge through a suite of optimizations, which borrows ideas from functional programming languages, and leverages specific behavior expected in geo-scientific programs. As we show in this paper some of these optimizations deliver speedups of almost 100×, and are key to the industrial-quality performance of one of the world's most widely used geomodeling tools.

The Brazilian Amazon forest is tremendously important for its ecosystem services but attribution of economically measurable values remains scarce. Mapping these values is essential for designing conservation strategies that suitably combine regional forest protection with sustainable forest use. We estimate spatially explicit economic values for a range of ecosystem services provided by the Brazilian Amazon forest, including food production (Brazil nut), raw material provision (rubber and timber), greenhouse gas mitigation (CO2 emissions) and climate regulation (rent losses to soybean, beef and hydroelectricity production due to reduced rainfall). Our work also includes the mapping of biodiversity resources and of rent losses to timber production by fire-induced degradation. Highest values range from US$56.72 ± 10 ha−1 yr−1 to US$737 ± 134 ha−1 yr−1 but are restricted to only 12% of the remaining forest. Our results, presented on a web platform, identify regions where high ecosystem services values cluster together as potential information to support decision-making. This study spatially maps the economic value of some major ecosystem services provided by the Brazilian Amazon. It also estimates changes in these values under scenarios of degradation and low-impact logging.

Made available in DSpace on 2020-12-10T19:53:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2020-04-01 The global network of protected areas (PAs) is systematically biased towards remote and unproductive places. Consequently, the processes threatening biodiversity are not halted and conservation impact-defined as the beneficial environmental outcomes arising from protection relative to the counterfactual of no intervention-is smaller than previously thought. Yet, many conservation plans still target species' representation, which can fail to lead to impact by not considering the threats they face, such as land conversion and climate change. Here we aimed to identify spatial conservation priorities that minimize the risk of land conversion, while retaining sites with high value for threatened plants at risk from climate change in the Brazilian Cerrado. We compared a method of sequential implementation of conservation actions to a static strategy applied at one time-step. For both schedules of conservation actions, we applied two methods for setting priorities: (i) minimizing expected habitat conversion and prioritizing valuable sites for threatened plants (therefore maximizing conservation impact), and (ii) prioritizing sites based only on their value for threatened plants, regardless of their vulnerability to land conversion (therefore maximizing representation). We found that scenarios aimed at maximizing conservation impact reduced total vegetation loss, while still covering large proportions of species' ranges inside PAs and priority sites. Given that planning to avoid vegetation loss provided these benefits, vegetation information could represent a reliable surrogate for overall biodiversity. Besides allowing for the achievement of two distinct goals (representation and impact), the impact strategies also present great potential for implementation, especially under current conservation policies. Univ Fed Goias, Dept Ecol, Lab Biogeog Conservacao, Ave Esperanca S-N,Campus Samambaia, BR-74690900 Goiania, Go, Brazil Univ Fed Goias, Programa Posgrad Ecol & Evolucao, Goiania, Go, Brazil Int Inst Sustainabil, BR-22460320 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil Univ Fed Parana, Programa Posgrad Ecol & Conservacao, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil James Cook Univ, Ctr Excellence Coral Reef Studies, Australian Res Council, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia Univ Estadual Paulista, Inst Biociencias, Dept Bot, Lab Fenol, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Ctr Sensoriamento Remoto, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil Univ Fed Goias, Lab Macroecol, BR-75801615 Jatai, Go, Brazil Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Brazilian Res Network Climate Change Rede Clima, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil Univ Estadual Paulista, Inst Biociencias, Dept Bot, Lab Fenol, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil

In this paper we use large scale spatially explicit modelling and case study based analyses to assess the links between recreational ecosystem services and the benefits for wellbeing of traditional livelihoods in the Brazilian Amazon. Our results show that, at the scale of the Brazilian Amazon, associations between recreational ecosystem services and extractivist activities of Brazil nut and rubber are very weak with no significant differences regarding Brazil nut (p = 0.61) and rubber (p = 0.41) income across the different tourism development classes. However, qualitative analysis of the case studies reveals that where there are multifunctional livelihoods, recreational ecosystem services are indeed helping to enhance non timber forest product extractivist social values that otherwise would be suppressed by prevailing “cattle ranching” lifestyles. We therefore support innovative ways to make both recreational ecosystem services and non timber forest products extraction not merely a juxtaposition of activities, but integrated into multifunctional livelihoods.

The island of Cuba and surrounding cays are a major repository of biodiversity in the Caribbean archipelago. Although Cuba is widely recognized for its high biodiversity and endemism, much of the country's conservation experiences have been overlooked by the global conservation scientific community. Here we particularly highlight decades of governance efforts that built and strengthened forest and biodiversity protection policies, resulting in the second largest rate of forest cover recovery worldwide, doubling of both marine and terrestrial protected area networks in recent years, as well as developing a unique agroecological matrix management. These conservation strategies combined with the constraints on infrastructure development as a result of the decades long U.S. embargo, has had the indirect result of placing Cuba in a unique position in the Caribbean region. Nevertheless, despite these advances, significant part of the Cuban biota suffers from deforestation and habitat degradation. Major threats include booming tourism, spread of introduced species, climate change and increasing frequency and intensity of storms and hurricanes associated to global warming. We also point out for Cuba's future challenges, as well as lessons that could be applied in other tropical countries.

Rubber extraction in the Amazon faces enormous ecological and economic challenges. We modeled the ecology (tree density and forest yields) and the production chain, including rents of the three major rubber products: Pressed Virgin Rubber (PVR), Liquid Latex (LL), and Liquid Smoked Sheet (LSS) from native forests and from plantations in Southern Acre, including the emblematic Chico Mendes Reserve. Our estimates show that, in native forests, tree density ranges from 0 to 4 trees/ha (average = 1.67 trees/ha), while productivity varies from 1 to 3 l/tree/year (average = 2.26 l/tree/year) with yields between 1 and 6 l/ha/year. Our model estimates a potential annual production of 890 tons of dry rubber in the 2.5 million ha of forests of Southern Acre (average = 0.36 kg/ha/year). Rubber extraction in native forests is not economically viable without government subsidies. Mean Equivalent Annual Annuity (EAA) for LL is US$ 3.24 ha/year in a scenario with subsidies and of 75% of potential annual harvest. LSS from plantations reaches an EAA of US$ 270 ha/year if costs of formation are subsidized. Public subsidies or Payments for Ecosystem Services are essential to sustain, at least temporally, rubber tapper identity – an important Cultural Ecosystem Service of the Amazon.

The conservation movement has lost its critical edge by befriending agribusiness. With deforestation on the rise and a continuous roll-back of environmental protection, it is time to rethink this strategy.

ropical dry forests and savannas harbour unique biodiversity and provide critical ES, yet they are under severe pressure globally. We need to improve our understanding of how and when this pressure provokes tipping points in biodiversity and the associated social-ecological systems. We propose an approach to investigate how drivers leading to natural vegetation decline trigger biodiversity tipping and illustrate it using the example of the Dry Diagonal in South America, an understudied deforestation frontier. The Dry Diagonal represents the largest continuous area of dry forests and savannas in South America, extending over three million km² across Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Paraguay. Natural vegetation in the Dry Diagonal has been undergoing large-scale transformations for the past 30 years due to massive agricultural expansion and intensification. Many signs indicate that natural vegetation decline has reached critical levels. Major research gaps prevail, however, in our understanding of how these transformations affect the unique and rich biodiversity of the Dry Diagonal, and how this affects the ecological integrity and the provisioning of ES that are critical both for local livelihoods and commercial agriculture. Fil: Thonicke, Kirsten. Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Alemania Fil: Langerwisch, Fanny. Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Alemania. Czech University of Life Sciences Prague; República Checa Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Technische Universitat Carolo Wilhelmina Zu Braunschweig.; Alemania Fil: Leitão, Pedro J.. Humboldt Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Technische Universitat Carolo Wilhelmina Zu Braunschweig.; Alemania Fil: Václavík, Tomáš. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; Alemania. Palacký University Olomouc; República Checa Fil: Alencar, Anne. Ministerio da Agricultura Pecuaria e Abastecimento de Brasil. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria; Brasil Fil: Simões, Margareth. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA); Brasil Fil: Scheiter, Simon. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA); Brasil. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; Brasil Fil: Langan, Liam. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; Alemania Fil: Bustamante, Mercedes. Universidade do Brasília; Brasil Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; Argentina Fil: Hirota, Marina. Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina; Brasil. Universidade Estadual de Campinas; Brasil Fil: Börner, Jan. Universitat Bonn; Alemania Fil: Rajao, Raoni. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Brasil Fil: Soares Filho, Britaldo. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Brasil Fil: Yanosky, Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología; Paraguay Fil: Ochoa Quinteiro, José Manuel. Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; Colombia Fil: Seghezzo, Lucas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional; Argentina Fil: Conti, Georgina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal; Argentina Fil: de la Vega Leiner, Anne Cristina. Universität Greifswald; Alemania

Biogeography and macroecology are at the heart of the debate on ecology and evolution. We have developed the BioDinamica package, a suite of user-friendly graphical programs for analysing spatial patterns of biogeography and macroecology. BioDinamica includes analyses of beta-diversity, species richness, endemicity, phylo-diversity, species distribution models, predictive models of biodiversity patterns, and several tools for spatial biodiversity analysis. BioDinamica consists of a sub-library of Dinamica-EGO operators developed by integrating EGO native functions with R scripts. The BioDinamica operators can be assembled to create complex analytical and simulation models through the EGO graphical programming interface. In addition, we make available “Wizard” tutorials for end users. BioDinamica can be downloaded free of charge from the Dinamica EGO submodel store. The tools made available in BioDinamica not only facilitate complex biodiversity analyses, they also help develop state-of-the-art spatial models for biogeography and macroecology studies.

Amazon wildfires could emit 17.0 Pg of CO2 by 2050, and avoiding new deforestation could cut associated net emissions by half., Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region’s forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.