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As policies are adjusted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic according to public health best practices, there is a need to balance the importance of social distancing in preventing viral spread with the strain that these governmental public safety mandates put on public mental health. Thus, there is need for continuous observation of public sentiment and deliberation to inform further adaptation of mandated interventions. In this study, we explore how public response may be reflected in Massachusetts (MA) via social media by specifically exploring temporal patterns in Twitter posts (tweets) regarding sentiment and discussion of topics. We employ interrupted time series centered on (1) Massachusetts State of Emergency declaration (March 10), (2) US State of Emergency declaration (March 13) and (3) Massachusetts public school closure (March 17) to explore changes in tweet sentiment polarity (net negative/positive), expressed anxiety and discussion on risk and health topics on a random subset of all tweets coded within Massachusetts and published from January 1 to May 15, 2020 (n = 2.8 million). We find significant differences between tweets published before and after mandate enforcement for Massachusetts State of Emergency (increased discussion of risk and health, decreased polarity and increased anxiety expression), US State of Emergency (increased discussion of risk and health, and increased anxiety expression) and Massachusetts public school closure (increased discussion of risk and decreased polarity). Our work further validates that Twitter data is a reasonable way to monitor public sentiment and discourse within a crisis, especially in conjunction with other observation data.

As policies are adjusted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic according to public health best practices, there is a need to balance the importance of social distancing in preventing viral spread with the strain that these governmental public safety mandates put on public mental health. Thus, there is need for continuous observation of public sentiment and deliberation to inform further adaptation of mandated interventions. In this study, we explore how public response may be reflected in Massachusetts (MA) via social media by specifically exploring temporal patterns in Twitter posts (tweets) regarding sentiment and discussion of topics. We employ interrupted time series centered on (1) Massachusetts State of Emergency declaration (March 10), (2) US State of Emergency declaration (March 13) and (3) Massachusetts public school closure (March 17) to explore changes in tweet sentiment polarity (net negative/positive), expressed anxiety and discussion on risk and health topics on a random subset of all tweets coded within Massachusetts and published from January 1 to May 15, 2020 (n = 2.8 million). We find significant differences between tweets published before and after mandate enforcement for Massachusetts State of Emergency (increased discussion of risk and health, decreased polarity and increased anxiety expression), US State of Emergency (increased discussion of risk and health, and increased anxiety expression) and Massachusetts public school closure (increased discussion of risk and decreased polarity). Our work further validates that Twitter data is a reasonable way to monitor public sentiment and discourse within a crisis, especially in conjunction with other observation data.

In the United States, cocaine use and mortality have surged in the past 5 years. Considering cocaine's reputation as a fashionable social drug, the rise of cocaine mentions in popular music may provide a signal of epidemiological trends of cocaine use. We characterized the relationship between mentions of cocaine in song lyrics and incidence of cocaine use and mortality in the US. Incidence of cocaine use from 2002 to 2017 was obtained from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health and cocaine overdose mortality rate from 2000 to 2017 was obtained from the Centers for Disease Control. Distributed lag models were fit using ordinary least squares on the first difference to identify associations between changes in cocaine lyric mentions and changes in incidence of cocaine use and mortality. A total of 5955 song lyrics with cocaine mentions were obtained from Lyrics.com. Cocaine mentions in song lyrics were stable from 2000 to 2010 then increased by 190% from 2010 to 2017. The first-order distributed lag model estimated that a 0.01 increase in mentions of cocaine in song lyrics is associated with an 11% increase in incidence of cocaine use within the same year and a 14% increase in cocaine mortality with a 2-year lag. Lag-times were confirmed with cross-correlation analyses and the association remained after accounting for street pricing of cocaine. Mentions of cocaine in song lyrics are associated with the rise of incidence of cocaine use and cocaine overdose mortality. Popular music trends are a potentially valuable tool for understanding cocaine epidemiology trends.

While efficacious vaccines have been developed to inoculate against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; also known as COVID-19), public vaccine hesitancy could still undermine efforts to combat the pandemic. Employing a survey of 1096 adult Americans recruited via the Lucid platform, we examined the relationships between vaccine attributes, proposed policy interventions such as financial incentives, and misinformation on public vaccination preferences. Higher degrees of vaccine efficacy significantly increased individuals' willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, while a high incidence of minor side effects, a co-pay, and Emergency Use Authorization to fast-track the vaccine decreased willingness. The vaccine manufacturer had no influence on public willingness to vaccinate. We also found no evidence that belief in misinformation about COVID-19 treatments was positively associated with vaccine hesitancy. The findings have implications for public health strategies intending to increase levels of community vaccination.

Effective and timely disease surveillance systems have the potential to help public health officials design interventions to mitigate the effects of disease outbreaks. Currently, healthcare-based disease monitoring systems in France offer influenza activity information that lags real-time by one to three weeks. This temporal data gap introduces uncertainty that prevents public health officials from having a timely perspective on the population-level disease activity. Here, we present a machine-learning modeling approach that produces real-time estimates and short-term forecasts of influenza activity for the twelve continental regions of France by leveraging multiple disparate data sources that include, Google search activity, real-time and local weather information, flu-related Twitter micro-blogs, electronic health records data, and historical disease activity synchronicities across regions. Our results show that all data sources contribute to improving influenza surveillance and that machine-learning ensembles that combine all data sources lead to accurate and timely predictions.

Public awareness of calories in food sold in retail establishments is a primary objective of the menu labeling law. This study explores the extent to which we can use social media and internet search queries to understand whether the federal calorie labeling law increased awareness of calories. To evaluate the association of the federal menu labeling law with tweeting about calories we retrieved tweets that contained the term "calorie(s)" from the CompEpi Geo Twitter Database from 1 January through 31 December in 2016 and 2018. Within the same time period, we also retrieved time-series data for search queries related to calories via Google Trends (GT). Interrupted time-series analysis was used to test whether the federal menu labeling law was associated with a change in mentions of "calorie(s)" on Twitter and relative search queries to calories on GT. Before the implementation of the federal calorie labeling law on 7 May 2018, there was a significant decrease in the baseline trend of 4.37 × 10-8 (SE = 1.25 × 10-8, p < 0.001) mean daily ratio of calorie(s) tweets. A significant increase in post-implementation slope of 3.19 × 10-8 (SE = 1.34 × 10-8 , p < 0.018) mean daily ratio of calorie(s) tweets was seen compared to the pre-implementation slope. An interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis showed a small, statistically significant upward trend of 0.0043 (SE = 0.036, p < 0.001) weekly search queries for calories pre-implementation, with no significant level change post-implementation. There was a decrease in trend of 1.22 (SE = 0.27, p < 0.001) in search queries for calories post-implementation. The federal calorie labeling law was associated with a 173% relative increase in the trend of mean daily ratio of tweets and a -28381% relative change in trend for search queries for calories. Twitter results demonstrate an increase in awareness of calories because of the addition of menu labels. Google Trends results imply that fewer people are searching for the calorie content of their meal, which may no longer be needed since calorie information is provided at point of purchase. Given our findings, discussions online about calories may provide a signal of an increased awareness in the implementation of calorie labels.

ObjectivesRapid detection and surveillance of COVID-19 is essential to reducing spread of the virus. Inadequate screening capacity has hampered COVID-19 detection, while traditional infectious disease response has been delayed due to significant demands for healthcare resources, time and personnel. This study investigated whether an online health decision-support tool could supplement COVID-19 surveillance and detection in China and the USA.SettingDaily website traffic to Thermia was collected from China and the USA, and cross-correlation analyses were used to assess the designated lag time between the daily time series of Thermia sessions and COVID-19 case counts from 22 January to 23 April 2020.ParticipantsThermia is a validated health decision-support tool that was modified to include content aimed at educating users about Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations on COVID-19 symptoms. An advertising campaign was released on Microsoft Advertising to refer searches for COVID-19 symptoms to Thermia.ResultsThe lead times observed for Thermia sessions to COVID-19 case reports was 3 days in China and 19 days in the USA. We found negative cross-correlation between the number of Thermia sessions and rates of influenza A and B, possibly due to the decreasing prevalence of influenza and the lack of specificity of the system for identification of COVID-19.ConclusionThis study suggests that early deployment of an online campaign and modified health decision-support tool may support identification of emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19. Researchers and public health officials should deploy web campaigns as early as possible in an epidemic to detect, identify and engage those potentially at risk to help prevent transmission of the disease.

PurposeThe purpose was to use Twitter to conduct online surveillance of negative sentiment towards Mexicans and Hispanics during the 2016 United States presidential election, and to examine its relationship with mental well-being in this targeted group at the population level.MethodsTweets containing the terms Mexican(s) and Hispanic(s) were collected within a 20-week period of the 2016 United States presidential election (November 9th 2016). Sentiment analysis was used to capture percent negative tweets. A time series lag regression model was used to examine the association between percent count of negative tweets mentioning Mexicans and Hispanics and percent count of worry among Hispanic Gallup poll respondents.ResultsOf 2,809,641 tweets containing terms Mexican(s) and Hispanic(s), 687,291 tweets were negative. Among 8,314 Hispanic Gallup respondents, a mean of 33.5% responded to be worried on a daily basis. A significant lead time of 1 week was observed, showing that negative tweets mentioning Mexicans and Hispanics appeared to forecast daily worry among Hispanics by 1 week.ConclusionSurveillance of online negative sentiment towards racially vulnerable population groups can be captured using social media. This has potential to identify early warning signals for symptoms of mental well-being among targeted groups at the population level.

Increasing capacity to provide buprenorphine, a treatment for opioid addiction, can help mitigate the opioid epidemic in the United States. This study models black-market pricing of buprenorphine to better understand supply and demand for opioid addiction treatment. A mixed effects linear model was used to quantify the effect of county-level racial composition, health insurance coverage, and drug characteristics on price variation. From November 2010 to June 2018, there were 2481 submissions for street buprenorphine transactions in the StreetRx dataset. The mean price was $3.95/mg (SD = $23.12/mg). Price decreased 3.05% each year and was highest in the summer and spring. Brand name buprenorphine was on average 11.18% more expensive than generic buprenorphine. Buprenorphine/naloxone combinations were on average 19.75% less expensive than pure buprenorphine. Purchases in bulk were on average 10.51% cheaper than purchases not in bulk. Street buprenorphine in film form was on average 14.34% more expensive than in pill/tablet form. Buprenorphine street price was 17.12% higher in spring and 22.26% higher in summer compared to fall. For every percentage point increase in percent white, buprenorphine sold for 0.88% higher price. For every percentage point increase in health insurance coverage, street buprenorphine sold for 0.02% lower price. Findings demonstrate that geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors shape the diversion of opioid addiction treatment to the black-market. Buprenorphine street pricing can help estimate public need, gaps in care and emerging public health priorities.

The rapid pace of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19) pandemic presents challenges to the real-time collection of population-scale data to inform near-term public health needs as well as future investigations. We established the COronavirus Pandemic Epidemiology (COPE) consortium to address this unprecedented crisis on behalf of the epidemiology research community. As a central component of this initiative, we have developed a COVID Symptom Study (previously known as the COVID Symptom Tracker) mobile application as a common data collection tool for epidemiologic cohort studies with active study participants. This mobile application collects information on risk factors, daily symptoms, and outcomes through a user-friendly interface that minimizes participant burden. Combined with our efforts within the general population, data collected from nearly 3 million participants in the United States and United Kingdom are being used to address critical needs in the emergency response, including identifying potential hot spots of disease and clinically actionable risk factors. The linkage of symptom data collected in the app with information and biospecimens already collected in epidemiology cohorts will position us to address key questions related to diet, lifestyle, environmental, and socioeconomic factors on susceptibility to COVID-19, clinical outcomes related to infection, and long-term physical, mental health, and financial sequalae. We call upon additional epidemiology cohorts to join this collective effort to strengthen our impact on the current health crisis and generate a new model for a collaborative and nimble research infrastructure that will lead to more rapid translation of our work for the betterment of public health.

Limited research has evaluated these equitable policies because of the difficulty of capturing LGBTQ patient experience. Previous studies have shown that LGBTQ persons report increased rates of discrimination across a wide variety of healthcare settings which may prevent them from disclosing their LGBTQ status. The goal of this research was to use a social media big dataset to evaluate the impact of equitable policies on patient experiences for LGBTQ persons.

Cases of a novel coronavirus were first reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and have since spread across the world. Epidemiological studies have indicated human-to-human transmission in China and elsewhere. To aid the analysis and tracking of the COVID-19 epidemic we collected and curated individual-level data from national, provincial, and municipal health reports, as well as additional information from online reports. All data are geo-coded and, where available, include symptoms, key dates (date of onset, admission, and confirmation), and travel history. The generation of detailed, real-time, and robust data for emerging disease outbreaks is important and can help to generate robust evidence that will support and inform public health decision making.

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in the Northern Hemisphere. Existing estimates of Lyme disease spread are delayed a year or more. We introduce Lymelight-a new method for monitoring the incidence of Lyme disease in real-time. We use a machine-learned classifier of web search sessions to estimate the number of individuals who search for possible Lyme disease symptoms in a given geographical area for two years, 2014 and 2015. We evaluate Lymelight using the official case count data from CDC and find a 92% correlation (p

BackgroundMedia reporting on communicable diseases has been demonstrated to affect the perception of the public. Communicable disease reporting related to foreign-born persons has not yet been evaluated.ObjectiveExamine how political leaning in the media affects reporting on tuberculosis (TB) in foreign-born persons.MethodsHealthMap, a digital surveillance platform that aggregates news sources on global infectious diseases, was used. Data was queried for media reports from the U.S. between 2011-2019, containing the term "TB" or "tuberculosis" and "foreign born", "refugee (s)," or "im (migrants)." Reports were reviewed to exclude duplicates and non-human cases. Each media source was rated using two independent media bias indicators to assess political leaning. Forty-six non-tuberculosis reports were randomly sampled and evaluated as a control. Two independent reviewers performed sentiment analysis on each report.ResultsOf 891 TB-associated reports in the US, 46 referenced foreign-born individuals, and were included in this analysis. 60.9% (28) of reports were published in right-leaning news media and 6.5% (3) of reports in left-leaning media, while 39.1% (18) of the control group reports were published in left- leaning media and 10.9% (5) in right-leaning media (p < .001). 43% (20) of all study reports were posted in 2016. Sentiment analysis revealed that right-leaning reports often portrayed foreign-born persons negatively.ConclusionPreliminary data from this pilot suggest that political leaning may affect reporting on TB in US foreign-born populations. Right-leaning news organizations produced the most reports on TB, and the majority of these reports portrayed foreign-born persons negatively. In addition, the control group comprised of non-TB, non-foreign born reports on communicable diseases featured a higher percentage of left-leaning news outlets, suggesting that reporting on TB in foreign-born individuals may be of greater interest to right-leaning outlets. Further investigation both in the U.S. and globally is needed.

Infectious disease outbreaks play an important role in global morbidity and mortality. Real-time epidemic forecasting provides an opportunity to predict geographic disease spread as well as case counts to better inform public health interventions when outbreaks occur. Challenges and recent advances in predictive modeling are discussed here. We identified data needs in the areas of epidemic surveillance, mobility, host and environmental susceptibility, pathogen transmissibility, population density, and healthcare capacity. Constraints in standardized case definitions and timely data sharing can limit the precision of predictive models. Resource-limited settings present particular challenges for accurate epidemic forecasting due to the lack of granular data available. Incorporating novel data streams into modeling efforts is an important consideration for the future as technology penetration continues to improve on a global level. Recent advances in machine-learning, increased collaboration between modelers, the use of stochastic semi-mechanistic models, real-time digital disease surveillance data, and open data sharing provide opportunities for refining forecasts for future epidemics. Epidemic forecasting using predictive modeling is an important tool for outbreak preparedness and response efforts. Despite the presence of some data gaps at present, opportunities and advancements in innovative data streams provide additional support for modeling future epidemics.

In the version of this Article originally published, the affiliation for author Catherine Linard was incorrectly stated as '6Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK'. The correct affiliation is '9Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium'. The affiliation for author Hongjie Yu was also incorrectly stated as '11Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA'. The correct affiliation is '15School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China'. This has now been amended in all versions of the Article.

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.

Air pollution is a serious public health concern. Innovative and scalable methods for detecting harmful air pollutants such as PM2.5 are necessary. This study assessed the feasibility of using social media to monitor outdoor air pollution in an urban area by comparing data from Twitter and validating it against established air monitoring stations. Data were collected from London, England from July 29, 2016 to March 17, 2017. Daily mean PM2.5 data was downloaded from the LondonAir platform consisting of 26 air pollution monitoring sites throughout Greater London. Publicly available tweets geo-located to Greater London containing air pollution terms were captured from the Twitter platform. Tweets with media URL links were excluded to minimize influence of news stories. Sentiment of the tweets was examined as negative, positive, or neutral. Cross-correlation analyses were used to compare the relationship between trends of tweets about air pollution and levels of PM2.5 over time. There were 16,448 tweets without a media URL link, with a mean of 498.42 (SD = 491.08) tweets per week. A significant cross-correlation coefficient of 0.803 was observed between PM2.5 data and the non-media air pollution tweets (p

Digital technologies hold promise for supporting the detection and management of schizophrenia. This exploratory study aimed to generate an initial understanding of whether patterns of communication about depression and anxiety on popular social media among individuals with schizophrenia are consistent with offline representations of the illness. From January to July 2016, posts on Twitter were collected from a sample of Twitter users who self-identify as having a schizophrenia spectrum disorder (n = 203) and a randomly selected sample of control users (n = 173). Frequency and timing of communication about depression and anxiety were compared between groups. In total, the groups posted n = 1,544,122 tweets and users had similar characteristics. Twitter users with schizophrenia showed significantly greater odds of tweeting about depression compared with control users (OR = 2.69; 95% CI 1.76-4.10), and significantly greater odds of tweeting about anxiety compared with control users (OR = 1.81; 95% CI 1.20-2.73). This study offers preliminary insights that Twitter users with schizophrenia may express elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety in their online posts, which is consistent with clinical characteristics of schizophrenia observed in offline settings. Social media platforms could further our understanding of schizophrenia by informing a digital phenotype and may afford new opportunities to support early illness detection.

Novel approaches are needed to address elevated tobacco use among people with schizophrenia. This exploratory study examined the frequency, timing, and type of communication about tobacco-related content on Twitter among users who self-identify as having schizophrenia compared with users from the general population. Over a 200-day period from January to July 2016, Twitter users who self-identify as having a schizophrenia spectrum disorder (n = 203) and a randomly selected group of general population control users (n = 173) posted 1,544,122 tweets. Communication frequency did not differ between groups. Tweets containing tobacco-related keywords were extracted. Twitter users with schizophrenia posted significantly more tweets containing any tobacco-related terms (mean = 3.74; SD = 16.3) compared with control users (mean = 0.82; SD = 1.8). A significantly greater proportion of Twitter users with schizophrenia (45%; n = 92) posted tweets containing any tobacco terms compared with control users (30%; n = 52). Schizophrenia users showed significantly greater odds of tweeting about tobacco compared with control users (OR = 1.99; 95% CI 1.29-3.07). These findings suggest that online communication about tobacco may parallel real world trends of elevated tobacco use observed among people with schizophrenia. By showing that Twitter users who self-identify as having schizophrenia discuss tobacco-related content online, popular social media could inform smoking cessation efforts targeting this at-risk group.