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There is limited information on the volume of antibiotic prescribing that is influenza-associated, resulting from influenza infections and their complications (such as streptococcal pharyngitis). We estimated that for the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population during 2010-2018, 3.4% (2.8%-4%) of all macrolide prescriptions (fills), 2.7% (2.3%-3.2%) of all aminopenicillin prescriptions, 3.1% (2.4%-3.9%) of all 3rd generation cephalosporins prescriptions, 2.2% (1.8%-2.6%) of all protected aminopenicillin prescriptions and 1.3% (1%-1.6%) of all quinolone prescriptions were influenza-associated. The corresponding proportions were higher for select age groups, e.g. 4.3% of macrolide prescribing in ages over 50 years, 5.1% (3.3%-6.8%) of aminopenicillin prescribing in ages 5-17 years and 3.3% (1.9%-4.6%) in ages5 years was influenza-associated. The relative contribution of influenza to antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses without a bacterial indication in ages over 5 years was higher than the corresponding relative contribution to prescribing for all diagnoses. Our results suggest a modest benefit of increasing influenza vaccination coverage for reducing prescribing for the five studied antibiotic classes, particularly for macrolides in ages over 50 years and aminopenicillins in ages18 years, and the potential benefit of other measures to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses with no bacterial indication, both of which may contribute to the mitigation of antimicrobial resistance.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) breakthrough infections are common.Evaluate in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 by vaccination status using retrospective cohort study.We generated propensity scores for receipt of full vaccination in adults requiring supplemental oxygen hospitalized at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (1 April 2021 to 30 November 2021) with positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 polymerase chain reaction tests. Optimal matching of fully vaccinated/unvaccinated patients was performed comparing in-hospital mortality.Of 7305 patients, 1463 (20.0%) were full, 138 (1.9%) were partial, and 5704 (78.1%) were unvaccinated. Fully vaccinated were older than partial or unvaccinated (71.0, 63.0, and 54.0 years, respectively, p0.001) with more comorbidities (Comorbidity Point Scores 33.0, 22.0, and 10.0, p0.001) and immunosuppressant (11.5%, 8.7%, and 3.0%, p0.001) or chemotherapy exposure (2.8%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, p0.001). Fewer fully vaccinated patients died compared to matched unvaccinated (9.0% vs. 16.3%, p0.0001).Fully vaccinated patients are less likely to die compared to matched unvaccinated patients.

There is limited information on the volume of antibiotic prescribing that is influenza-associated, resulting from influenza infections and their complications (such as streptococcal pharyngitis and otitis media). Here, we estimated age/diagnosis-specific proportions of antibiotic prescriptions (fills) for the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population during 2010–2018 that were influenza-associated. The proportion of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing among all antibiotic prescribing was higher in children aged 5–17 years compared to children aged under 5 years, ranging from 1.4% [95% CI (0.7–2.1)] in aged

ObjectivesAssess the association between tocilizumab administration and clinical outcomes among mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingLarge integrated health system with 9 million members in California, USA.Participants4185 Kaiser Permanente members hospitalised with COVID-19 pneumonia requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV).InterventionsReceipt of tocilizumab within 10 days of initiation of IMV.Outcome measuresUsing a retrospective cohort of consecutive patients hospitalised with COVID-19 pneumonia who required IMV in a large integrated health system in California, USA, we assessed the association between tocilizumab administration and 28-day mortality, time to extubation from IMV and time to hospital discharge.ResultsAmong 4185 patients, 184 received tocilizumab and 4001 patients did not receive tocilizumab within 10 days of initiation of IMV. After inverse probability weighting, baseline characteristics were well balanced between groups. Patients treated with tocilizumab had a similar risk of death in the 28 days after intubation compared with patients not treated with tocilizumab (adjusted HR (aHR), 1.21, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.50), but did have a significantly longer time-to-extubation (aHR 0.71; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.88) and time-to-hospital-discharge (aHR 0.66; 95% CI 0.50 to 0.88). However, patients treated with tocilizumab ≤2 days after initiation of IMV had a similar risk of mortality (aHR 1.47; 95% CI 0.96 to 2.26), but significantly shorter time-to-extubation (aHR 0.37; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.58) and time-to-hospital-discharge (aHR 0.31; 95% CI CI 0.17 to 0.56) compared with patients treated with tocilizumab 3–10 days after initiation of IMV.ConclusionsAmong mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19, the risk of death in the 28-day follow-up period was similar, but time-to-extubation and time-to-hospital-discharge were longer in patients who received tocilizumab within 10 days of initiation of IMV compared with patients who did not receive tocilizumab.

OBJECTIVE The cardiovascular safety of saxagliptin, a dipeptidyl-peptidase 4 inhibitor, compared with other antihyperglycemic treatments is not well understood. We prospectively examined the association between saxagliptin use and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We identified patients aged ≥18 years, starting from the approval date of saxagliptin in 2009 and continuing through August 2014, using data from 18 Mini-Sentinel data partners. We conducted seven sequential assessments comparing saxagliptin separately with sitagliptin, pioglitazone, second-generation sulfonylureas, and long-acting insulin, using disease risk score (DRS) stratification and propensity score (PS) matching to adjust for potential confounders. Sequential testing kept the overall chance of a false-positive signal below 0.05 (one-sided) for each pairwise comparison. RESULTS We identified 82,264 saxagliptin users and more than 1.5 times as many users of each comparator. At the end of surveillance, the DRS-stratified hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) were 1.08 (0.90–1.28) in the comparison with sitagliptin, 1.11 (0.87–1.42) with pioglitazone, 0.79 (0.64–0.98) with sulfonylureas, and 0.57 (0.46–0.70) with long-acting insulin. The corresponding PS-matched HRs were similar. Only one interim analysis of 168 analyses met criteria for a safety signal: the PS-matched saxagliptin-pioglitazone comparison from the fifth sequential analysis, which yielded an HR of 1.63 (1.12–2.37). This association diminished in subsequent analyses. CONCLUSIONS We did not find a higher AMI risk in saxagliptin users compared with users of other selected antihyperglycemic agents during the first 5 years after U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval of the drug.

Prior case reports and observational studies indicate that intravenous immune globulin (IVIg) products may cause thromboembolic events (TEEs), leading the FDA to require a boxed warning in 2013. The effect of IVIg treatment on the risk of serious TEEs (acute myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or venous thromboembolism) was assessed using adverse event data reported in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of IVIg. RCTs of IVIg in adult patients from 1995 to 2015 were identified from Pubmed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.Gov, and two large prior reviews of IVIg's therapeutic applications. Trials at high risk of detection or reporting bias for serious adverse events were excluded. 31 RCTs with a total of 4,129 participants (2,318 IVIg-treated, 1,811 control) were eligible for quantitative synthesis. No evidence was found of increased TEE risk among IVIg-treated patients compared with control patients (odds ratio = 1.10, 95% CI: 0.44, 2.88; risk difference = 0.0%, 95% CI: -0.7%, 0.7%, I(2) = 0%). No significant increase in risk was found when arterial and venous TEEs were analyzed as separate endpoints. Trial publications provided little specific information concerning the methods used to ascertain potential adverse events. Care should be taken in extrapolating the results to patients with higher baseline risks of TEE. Am. J. Hematol. 91:594-605, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Objective.To determine which antibiotics increase or decrease the risk of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD).Design.Retrospective case-control study.Setting.Nonprofit, integrated healthcare delivery system in Northern California.Patients.Study participants included patients with cases of hospital-acquired CDAD that occurred during the period from 1999 through 2005 (n = 1,142) and control patients (n = 3,351) matched for facility, calendar quarter during which hospitalization occurred, diagnosis related group for the index hospitalization, and length of hospital stay. All case and control patients had received antibiotics in the 60 days before the index date. For each antibiotic, the risk of CDAD was examined in relation to whether the patient received the antibiotic, after adjustment for use of other antibiotics, demographic characteristics, selected health conditions, and use of healthcare services.Results.The following antibiotics were associated with a significantly increased risk of acquiring CDAD: imipenem-cilastin (odds ratio [OR], 2.77), clindamycin (OR, 2.31), cefuroxime (OR, 2.16), moxifloxacin (OR, 1.88), ceftazidime (OR, 1.82), cefpodoxime (OR, 1.58), ceftizoxime (OR, 1.57), and ceftriaxone (OR, 1.49). Metronidazole and doxycycline were associated with a significantly reduced risk of CDAD (OR for metronidazole, 0.67; OR for doxycycline, 0.41). Other factors associated with an increased risk of CDAD were older age, longer hospital stays, use of proton pump inhibitors, prior gastrointestinal disease, and prior infection (not including C. difficile infection.)Conclusions.Some antibiotics appear to increase the risk of acquiring CDAD, notably clindamycin, third-generation cephalosporins, and carbapenems, whereas metronidazole and doxycycline appear to be protective, compared with other antibiotics.

It is increasingly necessary to analyze data from multiple sources when conducting public health safety surveillance or comparative effectiveness research. However, security, privacy, proprietary, and legal concerns often reduce data holders' willingness to share highly granular information. We describe and compare two approaches that do not require sharing of patient-level information to adjust for confounding in multi-site studies.We estimated the risks of angioedema associated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), and aliskiren in comparison with beta-blockers within Mini-Sentinel, which has created a distributed data system of 18 health plans. To obtain the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), we performed (i) a propensity score-stratified case-centered logistic regression analysis, a method identical to a stratified Cox regression analysis but needing only aggregated risk set data, and (ii) an inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis, which requires only the site-specific HR and variance. We also performed simulations to further compare the two methods.Compared with beta-blockers, the adjusted HR was 3.04 (95% CI: 2.81, 3.27) for ACEIs, 1.16 (1.00, 1.34) for ARBs, and 2.85 (1.34, 6.04) for aliskiren in the case-centered analysis. The corresponding HRs were 2.98 (2.76, 3.21), 1.15 (1.00, 1.33), and 2.86 (1.35, 6.04) in the meta-analysis. Simulations suggested that the two methods may produce different results under certain analytic scenarios.The case-centered analysis and the meta-analysis produced similar results without the need to share patient-level data across sites in our empirical study, but may provide different results in other study settings.

Many challenges arise when conducting a sequentially monitored medical product safety surveillance evaluation using observational electronic data captured during routine care. We review existing sequential approaches for potential use in this setting, including a continuous sequential testing method that has been utilized within the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) and group sequential methods, which are used widely in randomized clinical trials.Using both simulated data and preliminary data from an ongoing VSD evaluation, we discuss key sequential design considerations, including sample size and duration of surveillance, shape of the signaling threshold, and frequency of interim testing.All designs control the overall Type 1 error rate across all tests performed, but each yields different tradeoffs between the probability and timing of true and false positive signals. Designs tailored to monitor efficacy outcomes in clinical trials have been well studied, but less consideration has been given to optimizing design choices for observational safety settings, where the hypotheses, population, prevalence and severity of the outcomes, implications of signaling, and costs of false positive and negative findings are very different. Analytic challenges include confounding, missing and partially accrued data, high misclassification rates for outcomes presumptively defined using diagnostic codes, and unpredictable changes in dynamically accessed data over time (e.g., differential product uptake). Many of these factors influence the variability of the adverse events under evaluation and, in turn, the probability of committing a Type 1 error. Thus, to ensure proper Type 1 error control, planned sequential thresholds should be adjusted over time to account for these issues.

We investigated the Latino paradox in a managed care setting and examined the role of birthplace.We evaluated 133,155 non-Latino Whites and 5,237 Latinos (36% born in the United States, 34% in Central and South America, 21% in Mexico, and 8% in the Caribbean Islands) who were enrolled in an integrated healthcare delivery system in northern California. Baseline data were from 1964-1973, and the median followup was 34 years. Main outcome measures were cause-specific and all-cause mortality.In fully-adjusted analyses, and compared with non-Latino Whites, the risk of death from circulatory causes was significantly lower among US-born Latinos (hazard ratio [HR] .79, 95% confidence interval [CI] .66-.93), among Central and South America-born Latinos (HR .76, 95% CI .63-.91), and Caribbean-born Latinos (HR .66, 95% CI .47-0.93). Risk of death by malignant neoplasms was significantly lower among US-born Latinos (HR .68, 95% CI .56-.83). Risk of respiratory death was significantly lower among Central and South America-born Latinos (HR .50, 95% CI .32-.80). All-cause mortality risk was significantly decreased in US-born Latinos (HR .79, 95% CI .71-.87), Central and South America-born Latinos (HR .81, 95% CI .73-.90), and Caribbean-born Latinos (HR .76, 95% CI .63-.93) but not in Mexico-born Latinos.In our managed care setting, the Latino paradox phenomenon varied by birthplace; it was more evident among US-born Latinos. This subgroup experienced lower circulatory, cancer, and all-cause mortality than did non-Latino Whites, despite higher prevalences of current smoking, obesity, and asymptomatic hyperglycemia.

To evaluate the effectiveness of the diabetes care management (CM) program in Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) by determining the proportion of enrollees that met program entry criteria and by comparing intermediate outcomes trajectories of enrollees versus similar patients who did not receive CM.Observational study with propensity score matching of CM patients to control subjects.Care management program entry criteria were assessed for 179,249 adult patients with diabetes mellitus in 2003 and were compared between CM and non-CM patients in that year. Propensity score matching was used to match CM patients with comparable non-CM controls. Preprogram and postprogram glycosylated hemoglobin (A1C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and systolic blood pressure levels, as well as medication adherence, and treatment intensification rates of CM patients, were compared for enrollees versus controls.Sixteen percent of CM patients were ineligible by program entry criteria. Small but statistically significant differences in A1C and LDL-C levels favoring CM patients were observed during 15 months of postprogram follow-up. Care management patients were more likely to receive treatment intensification for poorly controlled hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension. Improvements in all 3 cardiovascular risk factor levels were observed for all KPNC patients with diabetes regardless of CM participation.Eligibility guidelines for diabetes CM were not strictly adhered to in this program. Nevertheless, in a population with improving risk factor control, patients entering CM experienced slightly greater improvement.

A large-scale, postmarketing observational database safety study was conducted following 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) licensure. A secondary outcome was the occurrence of predefined diagnoses among PCV7 vaccinees versus historic controls. Forty-two PCV7 recipients and 17 controls were hospitalized for Kawasaki disease (P = 0.012). After adjusting for potential confounding variables, this difference was not significant (P = 0.083). No association between Kawasaki disease and PCV7 was found.

To describe the development and assessment of the Abbreviated Fine Severity Score (AFSS), a simplified version of the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) suitable for providing risk-adjusted reports to clinicians caring for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia.Retrospective cohort study.We defined the AFSS based on data available in administrative and laboratory databases. We downloaded and linked these hospitalization and laboratory data from 2 cohorts (11,030 patients and 6147 patients) hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia in all Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program hospitals in northern California. We then assessed the relationship between the AFSS and mortality, length of stay, intensive care unit admission, and the use of assisted ventilation. Using logistic regression analysis, we assessed the performance of the AFSS and determined the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (c statistic). Using a combination of manual and electronic medical record review, we compared the AFSS with the full PSI in 2 subsets of patients in northern California and Denver, Colorado, whose medical records were manually reviewed.The AFSS compares favorably with the PSI with respect to predicting mortality. It has good discrimination with respect to inhospital (c = 0.74) and 30-day (c = 0.75) mortality. It also correlates strongly with the PSI (r = 0.87 and r = 0.93 in the 2 medical record review subsets).The AFSS can be used to provide clinically relevant risk-adjusted outcomes reports to clinicians in an integrated healthcare delivery system. It is possible to apply risk-adjustment methods from research settings to operational ones.

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends influenza vaccination for women who will be in the second or third trimester of pregnancy during the influenza season. We analyzed hospital admissions with principal diagnoses of influenza or pneumonia and influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient visits to study the effectiveness of influenza vaccine during pregnancy in protecting women and infants from influenza-related morbidity. Estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness across five flu seasons (Fall 1997 to Spring 2002) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models for women and infant study populations in Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Outpatient utilization outcomes included physician visits with a diagnosis of upper respiratory infection, pharyngitis, otitis media, asthma, bronchial asthma, viral infection, pneumonia, fever, cough, or wheezing associated with respiratory illness. Inpatient outcomes included hospitalizations with principal diagnoses of influenza or pneumonia. Women who received influenza vaccine during pregnancy had the same risk for ILI visits compared with unvaccinated women, adjusting for women's age and week of delivery. When asthma visits were excluded from the outcome measure, we also found no difference in the risk of outpatient visits for vaccinated and unvaccinated women. Hospital admissions for influenza or pneumonia for women in the study population were quite rare and no women died of respiratory illness during pregnancy. Infants born to women who received influenza vaccination had the same risks for influenza or pneumonia admissions compared with infants born to unvaccinated women, adjusting for infant's gender, gestational age, week of birth, and birth facility. Maternal influenza vaccination was also not a significant determinant of risk of ILI (excluding otitis media) outpatient visits for infants, nor did it significantly affect the risk of otitis media visits. Influenza vaccination during pregnancy did not significantly affect the risk of cesarean section, adjusting for the woman's age. It also did not affect the risk of preterm delivery. Although the immunogenicity of influenza vaccination in pregnancy in mother and infant has been well documented, in this study, we were unable to demonstrate the effectiveness of influenza vaccination with data for hospital admissions and physician visits. One possible interpretation of these findings is that typical influenza surveillance measures based on utilization data are not reliable in distinguishing influenza from other respiratory illness. Hospitalizations for respiratory illness were uncommon in both vaccinees and nonvaccinees.