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This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of the stagnation-point calibration probe surface predictions for conditions that span the performance envelope of the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System facility located at NASA Langley Research Center. A second-order stochastic expansion was constructed over 47 uncertain parameters to evaluate the sensitivities, identify the most significant uncertain variables, and quantify the uncertainty in the stagnation-point heat flux and pressure predictions of the calibration probe for a low- and high-enthalpy test condition. A sensitivity analysis showed that measurement bias uncertainty is the most significant contributor to the stagnation-point pressure and heat flux variance for the low-enthalpy condition. For the high-enthalpy condition, a paradigm shift in sensitivities revealed the computational fluid dynamics model input uncertainty as the main contributor. A comparison between the prediction and measurement of the stagnation-point conditions under uncertainty showed that there was evidence of statistical disagreement. A validation metric was proposed and applied to the prediction uncertainty to account for the statistical disagreement when compared to the possible stagnation-point heat flux and pressure measurements.

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Entry vehicle thermal protections systems are traditionally over-margined for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by designing to survive stacked worst-case scenarios. Additionally, the conventional heat shield design and margin process offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the corresponding reliability of the heat shield performance. A probabilistic margin process can be used to appropriately margin the thermal protection system based on rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This study presents the methods of the probabilistic margin process and how the uncertainty analysis is used to determine the reliability of the entry vehicle thermal protection system and associated risks of failure.

The primary objective of this work was to develop a computationally efficient and accurate approach to reliability analysis of thermal protection systems using support vector machines. An adaptive sampling approach was introduced informs a iterative support vector machine approximation of the limit state function used for measuring reliability. The proposed sampling approach efficient adds samples along the limit state function until the reliability approximation is converged. This methodology is applied to two samples, mathematical functions to test and demonstrate the applicability. Then, the adaptive sampling-based support vector machine approach is applied to the reliability analysis of a thermal protection system. The results of all three problems highlight the potential capability of the new approach in terms of accuracy and computational saving in determining thermal protection system reliability.

This work quantifies the backshell radiative heating experienced by payloads on human- scale vehicles entering the Martian atmosphere. Three underlying configurations were studied: a generic sphere, a sphere-cone forebody with a cylindrical payload, and an ellipsled. Computational fluid dynamics simulations of the flow field and radiation were performed using the LAURA and HARA codes, respectively. Results of this work indicated the primary contributor to radiative heating is emission from the CO2 IR band system. Furthermore, the backshell radiation component of heating can persist lower than 2 km/s during entry and descent. For the sphere-cone configuration a peak heat flux of about 3.5 W/cm(exp. 2) was observed at the payload juncture during entry. At similar conditions, the ellipsled geometry experienced about 1.25 W/cm(exp. 2) on the backshell, but as much as 8 W/cm(exp. 2) on the base at very high angle of attack. Overall, this study sheds light on the potential magnitudes of backshell radiative heating that various configurations may experience. These results may serve as a starting point for thermal protection system design or configuration changes necessary to accommodate thermal radiation levels.