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1. Do recent meta-analyses truly prove that treatment with blood pressure-lowering drugs is beneficial at any blood pressure value, no matter how low? A critical review

Author

Kreutz, R, Brunstrom, M, Thomopoulos, C, Carlberg, B, Mancia, G, Kreutz R., Brunstrom M., Thomopoulos C., Carlberg B., Mancia G., Kreutz, R, Brunstrom, M, Thomopoulos, C, Carlberg, B, Mancia, G, Kreutz R., Brunstrom M., Thomopoulos C., Carlberg B., and Mancia G.

Abstract

Current European guidelines for the management of hypertension and on cardiovascular disease prevention place the threshold for pharmacological treatment at a SBP level of 140 mmHg or above, with the exception of patients at very high risk (mainly because of coronary heart disease). This is in agreement with the current definition of hypertension, that is, the level of blood pressure at which the benefits of treatment outweigh the risks of treatment, as documented by clinical trials. This rationale and definition was recently challenged by meta-analyses using individual participant-level data from 48 randomized trials by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC). The authors calculated for a fixed 5 mmHg pharmacological reduction of SBP an overall 10% risk reduction for major cardiovascular events. It was concluded that there was no reliable evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effects by baseline SBP categories; that the effect was independent from the presence of cardiovascular disease; applied also to old and very old individuals up to 84 years or beyond; and that BP-lowering was also beneficial in individuals with normal or high-normal SBP down to a baseline SBP less than 120 mmHg. In this report, we identify and discuss a number of shortcomings of the BPLTTC meta-analyses. In our view, the conclusions by the BPLTTC must be -together with accompanying suggestions to abandon the definition of hypertension - strongly rejected as they are not justified and may be harmful for cardiovascular health in individuals without hypertension.

Published
2022

3. Bedtime dosing of antihypertensive medications: systematic review and consensus statement: International Society of Hypertension position paper endorsed by World Hypertension League and European Society of Hypertension

Author

Stergiou, G, Brunstrom, M, Macdonald, T, Kyriakoulis, K, Bursztyn, M, Khan, N, Bakris, G, Kollias, A, Menti, A, Muntner, P, Orias, M, Poulter, N, Shimbo, D, Williams, B, Adeoye, A, Damasceno, A, Korostovtseva, L, Li, Y, Muxfeldt, E, Zhang, Y, Mancia, G, Kreutz, R, Tomaszewski, M, Stergiou G., Brunstrom M., MacDonald T., Kyriakoulis K. G., Bursztyn M., Khan N., Bakris G., Kollias A., Menti A., Muntner P., Orias M., Poulter N., Shimbo D., Williams B., Adeoye A. M., Damasceno A., Korostovtseva L., Li Y., Muxfeldt E., Zhang Y., Mancia G., Kreutz R., Tomaszewski M., Stergiou, G, Brunstrom, M, Macdonald, T, Kyriakoulis, K, Bursztyn, M, Khan, N, Bakris, G, Kollias, A, Menti, A, Muntner, P, Orias, M, Poulter, N, Shimbo, D, Williams, B, Adeoye, A, Damasceno, A, Korostovtseva, L, Li, Y, Muxfeldt, E, Zhang, Y, Mancia, G, Kreutz, R, Tomaszewski, M, Stergiou G., Brunstrom M., MacDonald T., Kyriakoulis K. G., Bursztyn M., Khan N., Bakris G., Kollias A., Menti A., Muntner P., Orias M., Poulter N., Shimbo D., Williams B., Adeoye A. M., Damasceno A., Korostovtseva L., Li Y., Muxfeldt E., Zhang Y., Mancia G., Kreutz R., and Tomaszewski M.

Abstract

Antihypertensive drug therapy is one of the most efficient medical interventions for preventing disability and death globally. Most of the evidence supporting its benefits has been derived from outcome trials with morning dosing of medications. Accumulating evidence suggests an adverse prognosis associated with night-time hypertension, nondipping blood pressure (BP) profile and morning BP surge, with increased incidence of cardiovascular events during the first few morning hours. These observations provide justification for complete 24-h BP control as being the primary goal of antihypertensive treatment. Bedtime administration of antihypertensive drugs has also been proposed as a potentially more effective treatment strategy than morning administration. This Position Paper by the International Society of Hypertension reviewed the published evidence on the clinical relevance of the diurnal variation in BP and the timing of antihypertensive drug treatment, aiming to provide consensus recommendations for clinical practice. Eight published outcome hypertension studies involved bedtime dosing of antihypertensive drugs, and all had major methodological and/or other flaws and a high risk of bias in testing the impact of bedtime compared to morning treatment. Three ongoing, well designed, prospective, randomized controlled outcome trials are expected to provide high-quality data on the efficacy and safety of evening or bedtime versus morning drug dosing. Until that information is available, preferred use of bedtime drug dosing of antihypertensive drugs should not be routinely recommended in clinical practice. Complete 24-h control of BP should be targeted using readily available, long-acting antihypertensive medications as monotherapy or combinations administered in a single morning dose.

Published
2022

4. Methodological Aspects of Meta-Analyses Assessing the Effect of Blood Pressure-Lowering Treatment on Clinical Outcomes

Author

Brunstrom, M, Thomopoulos, C, Carlberg, B, Kreutz, R, Mancia, G, Brunstrom M., Thomopoulos C., Carlberg B., Kreutz R., Mancia G., Brunstrom, M, Thomopoulos, C, Carlberg, B, Kreutz, R, Mancia, G, Brunstrom M., Thomopoulos C., Carlberg B., Kreutz R., and Mancia G.

Abstract

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are often considered the highest level of evidence, with high impact on clinical practice guidelines. The methodological literature on systematic reviews and meta-analyses is extensive and covers most aspects relevant to the design and interpretation of meta-analysis findings in general. Analyzing the effect of blood pressure-lowering on clinical outcomes poses several challenges over and above what is covered in the general literature, including how to combine placebo-controlled trials, target-trials, and comparative studies depending on the research question, how to handle the potential interaction between baseline blood pressure level, common comorbidities, and the estimated treatment effect, and how to consider different magnitudes of blood pressure reduction across trials. This review aims to address the most important methodological considerations, to guide the general reader of systematic reviews and meta-analyses within our field, and to help inform the design of future studies. Furthermore, we highlight issues where published meta-analyses have applied different analytical strategies and discuss pros and cons with different strategies.

Published
2022

6. Missing Verification of Source Data in Hypertension Research: The HYGIA PROJECT in Perspective

Author

Brunstrom, M, Kjeldsen, S, Kreutz, R, Gjesdal, K, Narkiewicz, K, Burnier, M, Oparil, S, Mancia, G, Brunstrom M., Kjeldsen S. E., Kreutz R., Gjesdal K., Narkiewicz K., Burnier M., Oparil S., Mancia G., Brunstrom, M, Kjeldsen, S, Kreutz, R, Gjesdal, K, Narkiewicz, K, Burnier, M, Oparil, S, Mancia, G, Brunstrom M., Kjeldsen S. E., Kreutz R., Gjesdal K., Narkiewicz K., Burnier M., Oparil S., and Mancia G.

Published
2021

7. SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

Author

Hageman, S., Pennells, L., Ojeda, F., Kaptoge, S., Kuulasmaa, K., Vries, T. de, Xu, Z., Kee, F., Chung, R., Wood, A., McEvoy, J.W., Veronesi, G., Bolton, T., Dendale, P., Ference, B.A., Halle, M., Timmis, A., Vardas, P., Danesh, J., Graham, I., Salomaa, V., Visseren, F., Bacquer, D. de, Blankenberg, S., Dorresteijn, J., Angelantonio, E. di, Achenbach, S., Aleksandrova, K., Amiano, P., Amouyel, P., Andersson, J., Bakker, S.J.L., Costa, R.B.D., Beulens, J.W.J., Blaha, M., Bobak, M., Boer, J.M.A., Bonet, C., Bonnet, F., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Braaten, T., Brenner, H., Brunner, F., Brunner, E.J., Brunstrom, M., Buring, J., Butterworth, A.S., Capkova, N., Cesana, G., Chrysohoou, C., Colorado-Yohar, S., Cook, N.R., Cooper, C., Dahm, C.C., Davidson, K., Dennison, E., Castelnuovo, A. di, Donfrancesco, C., Dorr, M., Dorynska, A., Eliasson, M., Engstrom, G., Ferrari, P., Ferrario, M., Ford, I., Fu, M., Gansevoort, R.T., Giampaoli, S., Gillum, R.F., Camara, A.G. de la, Grassi, G., Hansson, P.O., Huculeci, R., Hveem, K., Iacoviello, L., Ikram, M.K., Jorgensen, T., Joseph, B., Jousilahti, P., Jukema, J.W., Kaaks, R., Katzke, V., Kavousi, M., Kiechl, S., Klotsche, J., Konig, W., Kronmal, R.A., Kubinova, R., Kucharska-Newton, A., Lall, K., Lehmann, N., Leistner, D., Linneberg, A., Pablos, D.L., Lorenz, T., Lu, W.T., Luksiene, D., Lyngbakken, M., Magnussen, C., Malyutina, S., Ibanez, A.M., Masala, G., Mathiesen, E.B., Matsushita, K., Meade, T.W., Melander, O., Meyer, H.E., Moons, K.G.M., Moreno-Iribas, C., Muller, D., Munzel, T., Nikitin, Y., Nordestgaard, B.G., Omland, T., Onland, C., Overvad, K., Packard, C., Pajak, A., Palmieri, L., Panagiotakos, D., Panico, S., Perez-Cornago, A., Peters, A., Pietila, A., Pikhart, H., Psaty, B.M., Quarti-Trevano, F., Garcia, J.R.Q., Riboli, E., Ridker, P.M., Rodriguez, B., Rodriguez-Barranco, M., Rosengren, A., Roussel, R., Sacerdote, C., Sans, S., Sattar, N., Schiborn, C., Schmidt, B., Schottker, B., Schulze, M., Schwartz, J.E., Selmer, R.M., Shea, S., Shipley, M.J., Sieri, S., Soderberg, S., Sofat, R., Tamosiunas, A., Thorand, B., Tillmann, T., Tjonneland, A., Tong, T.Y.N., Trichopoulou, A., Tumino, R., Tunstall-Pedoe, H., Tybjaerg-Hansen, A., Tzoulaki, J., Heijden, A. van der, Schouw, Y.T. van der, Verschuren, W.M.M., Volzke, H., Waldeyer, C., Wareham, N.J., Weiderpass, E., Weidinger, F., Wild, P., Willeit, J., Willeit, P., Wilsgaard, T., Woodward, M., Zeller, T., Zhang, D.D., Zhou, B., SCORE2 Working Grp, ESC Cardiovasc Risk Collaboration, collaboration, SCORE2 working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk, Groningen Institute for Organ Transplantation (GIOT), Groningen Kidney Center (GKC), Cardiovascular Centre (CVC), Epidemiology, Neurology, Achenbach, S, Aleksandrova, K, Amiano, P, San Sebastian, D, Amouyel, P, Andersson, J, Bakker, S, Da Providencia Costa, R, Beulens, J, Blaha, M, Bobak, M, Boer, J, Bonet, C, Bonnet, F, Boutron-Ruault, M, Braaten, T, Brenner, H, Brunner, F, Brunner, E, Brunström, M, Buring, J, Butterworth, A, Capkova, N, Cesana, G, Chrysohoou, C, Colorado-Yohar, S, Cook, N, Cooper, C, Dahm, C, Davidson, K, Dennison, E, Di Castelnuovo, A, Donfrancesco, C, Dörr, M, Doryńska, A, Eliasson, M, Engström, G, Ferrari, P, Ferrario, M, Ford, I, Fu, M, Gansevoort, R, Giampaoli, S, Gillum, R, Gómez de la Cámara, A, Grassi, G, Hansson, P, Huculeci, R, Hveem, K, Iacoviello, L, Ikram, M, Jørgensen, T, Joseph, B, Jousilahti, P, Wouter Jukema, J, Kaaks, R, Katzke, V, Kavousi, M, Kiechl, S, Klotsche, J, König, W, Kronmal, R, Kubinova, R, Kucharska-Newton, A, Läll, K, Lehmann, N, Leistner, D, Linneberg, A, Pablos, D, Lorenz, T, Lu, W, Luksiene, D, Lyngbakken, M, Magnussen, C, Malyutina, S, Ibañez, A, Masala, G, Mathiesen, E, Matsushita, K, Meade, T, Melander, O, Meyer, H, Moons, K, Moreno-Iribas, C, Muller, D, Münzel, T, Nikitin, Y, Nordestgaard, B, Omland, T, Onland, C, Overvad, K, Packard, C, Pająk, A, Palmieri, L, Panagiotakos, D, Panico, S, Perez-Cornago, A, Peters, A, Pietilä, A, Pikhart, H, Psaty, B, Quarti-Trevano, F, Garcia, J, Riboli, E, Ridker, P, Rodriguez, B, Rodriguez-Barranco, M, Rosengren, A, Roussel, R, Sacerdote, C, S, S, Sattar, N, Schiborn, C, Schmidt, B, Schöttker, B, Schulze, M, Schwartz, J, Selmer, R, Shea, S, Shipley, M, Sieri, S, Söderberg, S, Sofat, R, Tamosiunas, A, Thorand, B, Tillmann, T, Tjønneland, A, Tong, T, Trichopoulou, A, Tumino, R, Tunstall-Pedoe, H, Tybjaerg-Hansen, A, Tzoulaki, J, van der Heijden, A, van der Schouw, Y, Verschuren, W, Völzke, H, Waldeyer, C, Wareham, N, Weiderpass, E, Weidinger, F, Wild, P, Willeit, J, Willeit, P, Wilsgaard, T, Woodward, M, Zeller, T, Zhang, D, Zhou, B, and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository

Subjects
Male, Cardiology, RATIONALE, Blood Pressure, Disease, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, PROFILE, ACUTE CORONARY EVENTS, VALIDATION, Europe/epidemiology, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, DESIGN, Clinical Research, Risk Factors, Diabetes mellitus, medicine, PARTICIPANTS, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Risk factor, Aged, Primary prevention, business.industry, 10-year CVD risk, Incidence (epidemiology), Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology, Risk Prediction, Cardiovascular Disease, Primary Prevention, 10-year Cvd Risk, External validation, PRIMARY-CARE, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Cardiovascular disease, Risk prediction, 3. Good health, Europe, Prediction algorithms, Blood pressure, Cardiovascular Diseases, Smoking status, Female, Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine, business, Algorithms, Demography
Abstract

Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe. Acknowledgements We thank investigators and participants of the several studies that contributed data to the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC). This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under Application Number 26865. Data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were obtained under licence from the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (protocol 162RMn2). CPRD uses data provided by patients and collected by the NHS as part of their care and support. We thank all EPIC participants and staff for their contribution to the study, the laboratory teams at the Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit for sample management and Cambridge Genomic Services for genotyping, Sarah Spackman for data management and the team at the EPIC-CVD Coordinating Centre for study co-ordination and administration. Funding The ERFC co-ordinating centre was underpinned by programme grants from the British Heart Foundation (SP/09/002; RG/13/13/30194; RG/18/13/33946), BHF Centre of Research Excellence (RE/18/1/34212), the UK Medical Research Council (MR/L003120/1), and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC1215-20014), with project-specific support received from the UK NIHR [*], British United Provident Association UK Foundation and an unrestricted educational grant from GlaxoSmithKline. A variety of funding sources have supported recruitment, follow-up, and laboratory measurements in the studies contributing data to the ERFC, which are listed on the ERFC website (www.phpc.cam.ac.uk/ceu/erfc/list-of-studies). *The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. This work was supported by Health Data Research UK, which is funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome. The MORGAM Project has received funding from EU projects MORGAM (Biomed BMH4-CT98-3183), GenomEUtwin (FP5, QLG2-CT-2002-01254), ENGAGE (FP7, HEALTH-F4-2007-201413),CHANCES (FP7, HEALTH-F3-2010-242244), BiomarCaRE (FP7,HEALTH-F2-2011-278913), euCanSHare (Horizon 2020, No. 825903) and AFFECT-EU (Horizon 2020, No. 847770); and Medical Research Council, London (G0601463, No. 80983: Biomarkers in the MORGAM Populations). This has supported central coordination, workshops and part of the activities of the MORGAM Data Centre, the MORGAM Laboratories and the MORGAM Participating Centres EPIC-CVD was funded by the European Research Council (268834), and the European Commission Framework Programme 7 (HEALTH-F2-2012-279233). This work was supported by the Estonian Research Council grant PUTs (PRG687, PUT1660, PUT1665, PRG184), by European Union through the European Regional Development Fund project no. MOBERA5 (Norface Network project no 462.16.107), by the Green ICT programme under Norway Grants 2014 – 2021 (grant number EU53928), by the European Union through Horizon 2020 grant no. 810645 and through the European Regional Development Fund (Project No. 2014-2020.4.01.16-0125) and by the PRECISE4Q consortium. PRECISE4Q project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant agreement 777107. This work was partly funded through the CoMorMent project. CoMorMent has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant agreement 847776. The KORA study was initiated and financed by the Helmholtz Zentrum Mu¨nchen—German Research Center for Environmental Health, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and by the State of Bavaria. The KORA study was supported by a research grant from the Virtual Institute of Diabetes Research (Helmholtz Zentrum Mu¨nchen), the Clinical Cooperation Group Diabetes between Ludwig-Maximilians-Universita¨t Mu¨nchen and Helmholtz Zentrum Mu¨nchen, and by the German Diabetes Center (DDZ). The HAPIEE project, Institute, was supported by grants from the Wellcome Trust (064947/Z/01/Z; WT081081) and US National Institute on Aging (1R01 and AG23522). The co-ordination of EPIC is financially supported by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and also by the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, which has additional infrastructure support provided by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The national cohorts are supported by: Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Ge´ne´rale de l’Education Nationale, Institut National de la Sante´ et de la Recherche Me´dicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam Rehbruecke (DIfE), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, Compagnia di SanPaolo and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch 2448 SCORE2 working group and ESC Cardiovascular Risk Collaboration Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS)—Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Regional Governments of Andalucı´a, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology—ICO (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Ska˚ne and Va¨sterbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A29017 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk; MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom)

Published
2021
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