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141 results on '"Büchner, Matthias"'

1. Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

Author

Frieler, Katja, Volkholz, Jan, Lange, Stefan, Schewe, Jacob, Mengel, Matthias, del Rocío Rivas López, María, Otto, Christian, Reyer, Christopher PO, Karger, Dirk Nikolaus, Malle, Johanna T, Treu, Simon, Menz, Christoph, Blanchard, Julia L, Harrison, Cheryl S, Petrik, Colleen M, Eddy, Tyler D, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Novaglio, Camilla, Rousseau, Yannick, Watson, Reg A, Stock, Charles, Liu, Xiao, Heneghan, Ryan, Tittensor, Derek, Maury, Olivier, Büchner, Matthias, Vogt, Thomas, Wang, Tingting, Sun, Fubao, Sauer, Inga J, Koch, Johannes, Vanderkelen, Inne, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Müller, Christoph, Rabin, Sam, Klar, Jochen, del Valle, Iliusi D Vega, Lasslop, Gitta, Chadburn, Sarah, Burke, Eleanor, Gallego-Sala, Angela, Smith, Noah, Chang, Jinfeng, Hantson, Stijn, Burton, Chantelle, Gädeke, Anne, Li, Fang, Gosling, Simon N, Schmied, Hannes Müller, Hattermann, Fred, Wang, Jida, Yao, Fangfang, Hickler, Thomas, Marcé, Rafael, Pierson, Don, Thiery, Wim, Mercado-Bettín, Daniel, Ladwig, Robert, Ayala-Zamora, Ana Isabel, Forrest, Matthew, and Bechtold, Michel

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Earth sciences
Abstract

Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

Published
2024

2. Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs.

Author

Guibourd de Luzinais, Vianney, du Pontavice, Hubert, Reygondeau, Gabriel, Barrier, Nicolas, Blanchard, Julia, Bornarel, Virginie, Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William, Eddy, Tyler, Everett, Jason, Guiet, Jerome, Harrison, Cheryl, Maury, Olivier, Novaglio, Camilla, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Tittensor, Derek, Gascuel, Didier, and Petrik, Colleen

Subjects
Animals, Food Chain, Ecosystem, Nutritional Status, Climate, Biomass
Abstract

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090-2099 relative to 1995-2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the worlds oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the worlds oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the worlds oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.

Published
2023

3. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems.

Author

Tittensor, Derek P, Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl S, Heneghan, Ryan F, Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory L, Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William WL, Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P, Eddy, Tyler D, Everett, Jason D, Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A, Fulton, Elizabeth A, Galbraith, Eric D, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, John, Jasmin G, Link, Jason S, Lotze, Heike K, Maury, Olivier, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M, du Pontavice, Hubert, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony J, Shannon, Lynne, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A, and Blanchard, Julia L

Subjects
Climate-change ecology, Ecological modelling, Marine biology, Climate Action, Life Below Water, Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Environmental Science and Management
Abstract

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Published
2021

4. Essays in empirical asset pricing with machine learning

Author

Büchner, Matthias

Subjects
HF Commerce, HG Finance, Q Science (General)
Abstract

This thesis consists of four papers on topics in empirical asset pricing with a particular focus on applications of machine learning. The first paper investigates the interplay of predictable trading behaviour and asset prices. We show that predictable order ow is associated with improved liquidity and market efficiency. In addition, we find evidence for a priced factor constructed from order ow predictability, contributing to the literature that connects market microstructure features and asset prices. The second paper evaluates the efficacy of machine learning based forecasts of bond excess returns and contributes to a better understanding of the formation of bond risk premia. We show that machine learning techniques outperform the principal components benchmarks used in extant literature and deliver substantial economic gains to investors. The third paper investigates the risk-reward trade-off in index options through the lens of a factor modelling approach. We show that a factor model with five factors and time-varying loadings instrumented with option characteristics, explains the vast majority of variation in delta-hedged option returns. The recovered factors point to jump, volatility and term structure spread risks. Finally, the fourth paper studies the systematic drivers of asset holdings in a novel factor modelling approach. I document the existence of a factor structure in holdings changes that points to distinct, well-understood economic channels as drivers of asset holdings. Using investor-specific factor loadings I find evidence for pro-cyclical trading of banks and mutual funds as well as counter-cyclical trading of investment advisors and pension funds. Furthermore, I document that changes to institutional investor holdings driven by systematic factors are negatively associated with future returns, suggesting a price pressure channel as a driver for return reversals.

Published
2020

5. Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

Author

Lotze, Heike K, Tittensor, Derek P, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Eddy, Tyler D, Cheung, William WL, Galbraith, Eric D, Barange, Manuel, Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Blanchard, Julia L, Bopp, Laurent, Büchner, Matthias, Bulman, Catherine M, Carozza, David A, Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P, Fulton, Elizabeth A, Jennings, Simon, Jones, Miranda C, Mackinson, Steve, Maury, Olivier, Niiranen, Susa, Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo, Roy, Tilla, Fernandes, José A, Schewe, Jacob, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Silva, Tiago AM, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A, Verley, Philippe, Volkholz, Jan, Walker, Nicola D, and Worm, Boris

Subjects
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, Environmental Management, Environmental Sciences, Climate Action, Animals, Aquatic Organisms, Biomass, Climate Change, Fisheries, Fishes, Food Chain, Models, Theoretical, Oceans and Seas, climate change impacts, marine food webs, global ecosystem modeling, model intercomparison, uncertainty
Abstract

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Published
2019

6. Global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections reveal key uncertainties

Author

Eddy, Tyler, primary, Heneghan, Ryan, additional, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, additional, Fulton, Beth, additional, Harrison, Cheryl Shannon, additional, Tittensor, Derek, additional, Lotze, Heike K, additional, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, additional, Novaglio, Camilla, additional, Bianchi, Daniele, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Bulman, Catherine M, additional, Cheung, William, additional, Christensen, Villy, additional, Coll, Marta, additional, Everett, Jason D, additional, Arcos, L. Denisse Fierro, additional, Galbraith, Eric D., additional, Gascuel, Didier, additional, Guiet, Jerome, additional, Mackinson, Steve, additional, Maury, Olivier, additional, Niiranen, Susa, additional, Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo, additional, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, additional, Piroddi, Chiara, additional, Pontavice, Hubert du, additional, Reum, Jonathan Charles, additional, Richardson, Anthony, additional, Schewe, Jacob, additional, Shannon, Lynne, additional, Shin, Yunne-Jai, additional, Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard, additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Walker, Nicola, additional, Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe, additional, and Blanchard, Julia L., additional

Published
2024
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7. Detecting, attributing, and projecting global marine ecosystem and fisheries change: FishMIP 2.0

Author

Blanchard, Julia L., primary, Novaglio, Camilla, additional, Maury, Olivier, additional, Harrison, Cheryl Shannon, additional, Petrik, Colleen M, additional, Arcos, L. Denisse Fierro, additional, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, additional, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, additional, Eddy, Tyler, additional, Heneghan, Ryan, additional, Roberts, Kelsey E, additional, Schewe, Jacob, additional, Bianchi, Daniele, additional, Guiet, Jerome, additional, Denderen, Daniel van, additional, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, additional, Liu, Xiao, additional, Stock, Charles A. A, additional, Rousseau, Yannick, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Adekoya, Ezekiel, additional, Cheung, William, additional, Christensen, Villy, additional, Coll, Marta, additional, Capitani, Leonardo, additional, Datta, Samik, additional, Fulton, Beth, additional, Fuster, Alba, additional, Garza, Victoria, additional, Lengaigne, Matthieu, additional, lindmark, Max, additional, Murphy, Kieran, additional, Ouled-Cheikh, Jazel, additional, Prasad, Sowdamini P., additional, Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo, additional, Reum, Jonathan Charles, additional, Rynne, Nina, additional, Scherrer, Kim, additional, Shin, Yunne-Jai, additional, Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard, additional, Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe, additional, Wu, Yan-Lun, additional, and Tittensor, Derek, additional

Published
2024
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8. Measurement of the electric polarizability of lithium by atom interferometry

Author

Miffre, Alain, Jacquey, Marion, Buchner, Matthias, Trenec, Gérard, and Vigue, Jacques

Subjects
Quantum Physics
Abstract

We have built an atom interferometer and, by applying an electric field on one of the two interfering beams, we have measured the static electric polarizability of lithium with a 0.66 % uncertainty. Our experiment is similar to an experiment done on sodium in 1995 by D. Pritchard and co-workers, with several improvements: the electric field can be calculated analytically and our phase measurements are very accurate. This experiment illustrates the extreme sensitivity of atom interferometry: when the atom enters the electric field, its velocity increases and the fractional change, equal to 4 x 10^(-9) for our largest field, is measured with a 10^(-3) accuracy., Comment: 4 pages, 15 June 2005

Published
2005
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9. Parallel Temperatures in Supersonic Beams: Ultra Cooling of Light Atoms seeded in a Heavier Carrier Gas

Author

Miffre, Alain, Jacquey, Marion, Buchner, Matthias, Trenec, Gerard, and Vigue, Jacques

Subjects
Physics - Atomic Physics
Abstract

We have found recently that, in a supersonic expansion of a mixture of two monoatomic gases, the parallel temperatures of the two gases can be very different. This effect is large if the seeded gas is highly diluted and if its atomic mass is considerably smaller than the one of the carrier gas. In the present paper, we present a complete derivation of our theoretical analysis of this effect. Our calculation is a natural extension of the existing theory of supersonic cooling to the case of a gas mixture, in the high dilution limit. Finally, we describe a set of temperature measurements made on a beam of lithium seeded in argon. Our experimental results are in very good agreement with the results of our calculation., Comment: 24 novembre 2004

Published
2004
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10. Diffraction phases in atom interferometers

Author

Champenois, Caroline, Buchner, Matthias, Delhuille, Remi, Robilliard, Cecile, Vigue, Jacques, and Miffre, Alain

Subjects
Quantum Physics, Physics - Atomic Physics
Abstract

Diffraction of atoms by laser is a very important tool for matter wave optics. Although this process is well understood, the phase shifts induced by this diffraction process are not well known. In this paper, we make analytic calculations of these phase shifts in some simple cases and we use these results to model the contrast interferometer recently built by the group of D. Pritchard at MIT. We thus show that the values of the diffraction phases are large and that they probably contribute to the phase noise observed in this experiment., Comment: v3 11/03/03

Published
2002

11. Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

Author

Frieler, Katja, primary, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Lange, Stefan, additional, Schewe, Jacob, additional, Mengel, Matthias, additional, Rivas López, María del Rocío, additional, Otto, Christian, additional, Reyer, Christopher P. O., additional, Karger, Dirk Nikolaus, additional, Malle, Johanna T., additional, Treu, Simon, additional, Menz, Christoph, additional, Blanchard, Julia L., additional, Harrison, Cheryl S., additional, Petrik, Colleen M., additional, Eddy, Tyler D., additional, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, additional, Novaglio, Camilla, additional, Rousseau, Yannick, additional, Watson, Reg A., additional, Stock, Charles, additional, Liu, Xiao, additional, Heneghan, Ryan, additional, Tittensor, Derek, additional, Maury, Olivier, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Vogt, Thomas, additional, Wang, Tingting, additional, Sun, Fubao, additional, Sauer, Inga J., additional, Koch, Johannes, additional, Vanderkelen, Inne, additional, Jägermeyr, Jonas, additional, Müller, Christoph, additional, Klar, Jochen, additional, Vega del Valle, Iliusi D., additional, Lasslop, Gitta, additional, Chadburn, Sarah, additional, Burke, Eleanor, additional, Gallego-Sala, Angela, additional, Smith, Noah, additional, Chang, Jinfeng, additional, Hantson, Stijn, additional, Burton, Chantelle, additional, Gädeke, Anne, additional, Li, Fang, additional, Gosling, Simon N., additional, Müller Schmied, Hannes, additional, Hattermann, Fred, additional, Wang, Jida, additional, Yao, Fangfang, additional, Hickler, Thomas, additional, Marcé, Rafael, additional, Pierson, Don, additional, Thiery, Wim, additional, Mercado-Bettín, Daniel, additional, Forrest, Matthew, additional, and Bechtold, Michel, additional

Published
2023
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12. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Author

Schewe, Jacob, Gosling, Simon N., Reyer, Christopher, Zhao, Fang, Ciais, Philippe, Elliott, Joshua, Francois, Louis, Huber, Veronika, Lotze, Heike K., Seneviratne, Sonia I., van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Vautard, Robert, Wada, Yoshihide, Breuer, Lutz, Büchner, Matthias, Carozza, David A., Chang, Jinfeng, Coll, Marta, Deryng, Delphine, de Wit, Allard, Eddy, Tyler D., Folberth, Christian, Frieler, Katja, Friend, Andrew D., Gerten, Dieter, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Hanasaki, Naota, Ito, Akihiko, Khabarov, Nikolay, Kim, Hyungjun, Lawrence, Peter, Morfopoulos, Catherine, Müller, Christoph, Müller Schmied, Hannes, Orth, René, Ostberg, Sebastian, Pokhrel, Yadu, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Sakurai, Gen, Satoh, Yusuke, Schmid, Erwin, Stacke, Tobias, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Steinkamp, Jörg, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Hanqin, Tittensor, Derek P., Volkholz, Jan, Wang, Xuhui, and Warszawski, Lila

Published
2019
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13. Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture

Author

Blanchard, Julia L., Watson, Reg A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Cottrell, Richard S., Nash, Kirsty L., Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Büchner, Matthias, Carozza, David A., Cheung, William W. L., Elliott, Joshua, Davidson, Lindsay N. K., Dulvy, Nicholas K., Dunne, John P., Eddy, Tyler D., Galbraith, Eric, Lotze, Heike K., Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Tittensor, Derek P., and Jennings, Simon

Published
2017
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14. Corrigendum: Bond Risk Premiums with Machine Learning.

Author

Bianchi, Daniele, Büchner, Matthias, Hoogteijling, Tobias, and Tamoni, Andrea

Subjects
BONDS (Finance), MACHINE learning, RISK premiums
Abstract

In this note we revisit the empirical results in Bianchi, Büchner, and Tamoni (2020) after correcting for using information not available at the time the forecast was made. Although we note a decrease in out-of-sample |$R^2$|⁠ , the revised analysis confirms that bond excess return predictability from neural networks remains statistically and economically significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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15. Bond Risk Premiums with Machine Learning.

Author

Bianchi, Daniele, Büchner, Matthias, and Tamoni, Andrea

Subjects
MACHINE learning, RISK premiums, RATE of return on bonds, ARTIFICIAL neural networks
Abstract

We show that machine learning methods, in particular, extreme trees and neural networks (NNs), provide strong statistical evidence in favor of bond return predictability. NN forecasts based on macroeconomic and yield information translate into economic gains that are larger than those obtained using yields alone. Interestingly, the nature of unspanned factors changes along the yield curve: stock- and labor-market-related variables are more relevant for short-term maturities, whereas output and income variables matter more for longer maturities. Finally, NN forecasts correlate with proxies for time-varying risk aversion and uncertainty, lending support to models featuring both channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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18. Improving impact model intercomparison by developing and applying quality control and quality assessment tools – the example of the ISIMIP global water sector

Author

Müller Schmied, Hannes, primary, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Klar, Jochen, additional, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, additional, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, additional, Gosling, Simon N., additional, Dobor, Laura, additional, Nyenah, Emmanuel, additional, and Reyer, Christopher, additional

Published
2022
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23. Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes

Author

Thiery, Wim, primary, Lange, Stefan, additional, Rogelj, Joeri, additional, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Gudmundsson, Lukas, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Andrijevic, Marina, additional, Frieler, Katja, additional, Emanuel, Kerry, additional, Geiger, Tobias, additional, Bresch, David N., additional, Zhao, Fang, additional, Willner, Sven N., additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Bauer, Nico, additional, Chang, Jinfeng, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Dury, Marie, additional, François, Louis, additional, Grillakis, Manolis, additional, Gosling, Simon N., additional, Hanasaki, Naota, additional, Hickler, Thomas, additional, Huber, Veronika, additional, Ito, Akihiko, additional, Jägermeyr, Jonas, additional, Khabarov, Nikolay, additional, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, additional, Liu, Wenfeng, additional, Lutz, Wolfgang, additional, Mengel, Matthias, additional, Müller, Christoph, additional, Ostberg, Sebastian, additional, Reyer, Christopher P. O., additional, Stacke, Tobias, additional, and Wada, Yoshihide, additional

Published
2021
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24. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Author

Tittensor, Derek P., Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl S., Heneghan, Ryan F., Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory L., Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William W. L., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-salvador, Jose A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Galbraith, Eric D., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, John, Jasmin G., Link, Jason S., Lotze, Heike K., Maury, Olivier, Ortega-cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Du Pontavice, Hubert, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony J., Shannon, Lynne, Shin, Yunne-jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A., Blanchard, Julia L, Tittensor, Derek P., Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl S., Heneghan, Ryan F., Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory L., Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William W. L., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-salvador, Jose A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Galbraith, Eric D., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, John, Jasmin G., Link, Jason S., Lotze, Heike K., Maury, Olivier, Ortega-cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Du Pontavice, Hubert, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony J., Shannon, Lynne, Shin, Yunne-jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A., and Blanchard, Julia L

Abstract

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Published
2021
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25. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Author

Tittensor, Derek, Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl, Heneghan, Ryan, Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory, Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William W. L., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, Johan, Eddy, Tyler D, Everett, Jason D., Fernandes, Jose A, Elizabeth A, Galbraith, Eric, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jérôme, John, Jasmin G., Link, Jason, Lotze, Heike K, Maury, Olivier, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen, Pontavice, Hubert du, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony, Shannon, Lynne, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles, Blanchard, Julia, Tittensor, Derek, Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl, Heneghan, Ryan, Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory, Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William W. L., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, Johan, Eddy, Tyler D, Everett, Jason D., Fernandes, Jose A, Elizabeth A, Galbraith, Eric, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jérôme, John, Jasmin G., Link, Jason, Lotze, Heike K, Maury, Olivier, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen, Pontavice, Hubert du, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony, Shannon, Lynne, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles, and Blanchard, Julia

Abstract

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M, Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Published
2021

26. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Author

Jarislowsky Foundation, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Australian Research Council, European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), UK Research and Innovation, Global Challenges Research Fund, One Ocean Hub, Simons Foundation, Belmont Forum, BiodivERsA, Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ocean Frontier Institute, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), California Ocean Protection Council, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (US), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Tittensor, Derek P., Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl, Heneghan, Ryan F., Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory L., Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William W.L., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-Salvador, José A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Galbraith, Eric D., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, John, Jasmin G., Link, Jason S., Lotze, Heike K., Maury, Olivier, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Pontavice, Hubert du, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony J., Shannon, Lynne J., Shin, Yunne-Jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A., Blanchard, Julia L., Jarislowsky Foundation, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Australian Research Council, European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), UK Research and Innovation, Global Challenges Research Fund, One Ocean Hub, Simons Foundation, Belmont Forum, BiodivERsA, Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ocean Frontier Institute, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), California Ocean Protection Council, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (US), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Tittensor, Derek P., Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl, Heneghan, Ryan F., Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory L., Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William W.L., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-Salvador, José A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Galbraith, Eric D., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, John, Jasmin G., Link, Jason S., Lotze, Heike K., Maury, Olivier, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Pontavice, Hubert du, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony J., Shannon, Lynne J., Shin, Yunne-Jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A., and Blanchard, Julia L.

Abstract

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning

Published
2021

28. The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on European forests

Author

Reyer, Christopher P.O., Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, Dolos, Klara, Hartig, Florian, Hauf, Ylva, Noack, Matthias, Lasch-Born, Petra, Rötzer, Thomas, Pretzsch, Hans, Meesenburg, Henning, Fleck, Stefan, Wagner, Markus, Bolte, Andreas, Sanders, Tanja G.M., Kolari, Pasi, Mäkelä, Annikki, Vesala, Timo, Mammarella, Ivan, Pumpanen, Jukka, Collalti, Alessio, Trotta, Carlo, Matteucci, Giorgio, D'Andrea, Ettore, Foltýnová, Lenka, Krejza, Jan, Ibrom, Andreas, Pilegaard, Kim, Loustau, Denis, Bonnefond, Jean-Marc, Berbigier, Paul, Picart, Delphine, Lafont, Sébastien, Dietze, Michael, Cameron, David, Vieno, Massimo, Tian, Hanqin, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, Cicuendez, Victor, Recuero, Laura, Wiese, Klaus, Büchner, Matthias, Lange, Stefan, Volkholz, Jan, Kim, Hyungjun, Horemans, Joanna A., Bohn, Friedrich, Steinkamp, Jörg, Chikalanov, Alexander, Weedon, Graham P., Sheffield, Justin, Babst, Flurin, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, Suckow, Felicitas, Martel, Simon, Mahnken, Mats, Gutsch, Martin, Frieler, Katja, Reyer, Christopher P.O., Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, Dolos, Klara, Hartig, Florian, Hauf, Ylva, Noack, Matthias, Lasch-Born, Petra, Rötzer, Thomas, Pretzsch, Hans, Meesenburg, Henning, Fleck, Stefan, Wagner, Markus, Bolte, Andreas, Sanders, Tanja G.M., Kolari, Pasi, Mäkelä, Annikki, Vesala, Timo, Mammarella, Ivan, Pumpanen, Jukka, Collalti, Alessio, Trotta, Carlo, Matteucci, Giorgio, D'Andrea, Ettore, Foltýnová, Lenka, Krejza, Jan, Ibrom, Andreas, Pilegaard, Kim, Loustau, Denis, Bonnefond, Jean-Marc, Berbigier, Paul, Picart, Delphine, Lafont, Sébastien, Dietze, Michael, Cameron, David, Vieno, Massimo, Tian, Hanqin, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, Cicuendez, Victor, Recuero, Laura, Wiese, Klaus, Büchner, Matthias, Lange, Stefan, Volkholz, Jan, Kim, Hyungjun, Horemans, Joanna A., Bohn, Friedrich, Steinkamp, Jörg, Chikalanov, Alexander, Weedon, Graham P., Sheffield, Justin, Babst, Flurin, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, Suckow, Felicitas, Martel, Simon, Mahnken, Mats, Gutsch, Martin, and Frieler, Katja

Abstract

Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data on European forests to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage of this database is its wide coverage of multiple data sources at different hierarchical and temporal scales, together with environmental driving data as well as the latest climate scenarios. Specifically, the PROFOUND DB provides general site descriptions, soil, climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition, tree and forest stand level, and remote sensing data for nine contrasting forest stands distributed across Europe. Moreover, for a subset of five sites, time series of carbon fluxes, atmospheric heat conduction and soil water are also available. The climate and nitrogen deposition data contain several datasets for the historic period and a wide range of future climate change scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). We also provide pre-industrial climate simulations that allow for model runs aimed at disentangling the contribution of climate change to observed forest productivity changes. The PROFOUND DB is available freely as a “SQLite” relational database or “ASCII” flat file version (at https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2020.006/; Reyer et al., 2020). The data policies of the individual contributing datasets are provided in the metadata of each data file. The PROFOUND DB can also be accessed via the ProfoundData R package (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ProfoundData; Silveyra Gonzalez et al., 2020), which provides basic functions to explore, plot and extract the data for model set-up, calibration and evaluation.

Published
2020

32. Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales

Author

Lange, Stefan, primary, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Geiger, Tobias, additional, Zhao, Fang, additional, Vega, Iliusi, additional, Veldkamp, Ted, additional, Reyer, Christopher P. O., additional, Warszawski, Lila, additional, Huber, Veronika, additional, Jägermeyr, Jonas, additional, Schewe, Jacob, additional, Bresch, David N., additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Chang, Jinfeng, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Dury, Marie, additional, Emanuel, Kerry, additional, Folberth, Christian, additional, Gerten, Dieter, additional, Gosling, Simon N., additional, Grillakis, Manolis, additional, Hanasaki, Naota, additional, Henrot, Alexandra‐Jane, additional, Hickler, Thomas, additional, Honda, Yasushi, additional, Ito, Akihiko, additional, Khabarov, Nikolay, additional, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, additional, Liu, Wenfeng, additional, Müller, Christoph, additional, Nishina, Kazuya, additional, Ostberg, Sebastian, additional, Müller Schmied, Hannes, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Stacke, Tobias, additional, Steinkamp, Jörg, additional, Thiery, Wim, additional, Wada, Yoshihide, additional, Willner, Sven, additional, Yang, Hong, additional, Yoshikawa, Minoru, additional, Yue, Chao, additional, and Frieler, Katja, additional

Published
2020
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35. The PROFOUND Database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on European forests

Author

Reyer, Christopher P. O., primary, Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, additional, Dolos, Klara, additional, Hartig, Florian, additional, Hauf, Ylva, additional, Noack, Matthias, additional, Lasch-Born, Petra, additional, Rötzer, Thomas, additional, Pretzsch, Hans, additional, Meesenburg, Henning, additional, Fleck, Stefan, additional, Wagner, Markus, additional, Bolte, Andreas, additional, Sanders, Tanja G. M., additional, Kolari, Pasi, additional, Mäkelä, Annikki, additional, Vesala, Timo, additional, Mammarella, Ivan, additional, Pumpanen, Jukka, additional, Collalti, Alessio, additional, Trotta, Carlo, additional, Matteucci, Giorgio, additional, D'Andrea, Ettore, additional, Foltýnová, Lenka, additional, Krejza, Jan, additional, Ibrom, Andreas, additional, Pilegaard, Kim, additional, Loustau, Denis, additional, Bonnefond, Jean-Marc, additional, Berbigier, Paul, additional, Picart, Delphine, additional, Lafont, Sébastien, additional, Dietze, Michael, additional, Cameron, David, additional, Vieno, Massimo, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, additional, Cicuendez, Victor, additional, Recuero, Laura, additional, Wiese, Klaus, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Lange, Stefan, additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Kim, Hyungjun, additional, Horemans, Joanna A., additional, Bohn, Friedrich, additional, Steinkamp, Jörg, additional, Chikalanov, Alexander, additional, Weedon, Graham P., additional, Sheffield, Justin, additional, Babst, Flurin, additional, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, additional, Suckow, Felicitas, additional, Martel, Simon, additional, Mahnken, Mats, additional, Gutsch, Martin, additional, and Frieler, Katja, additional

Published
2020
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38. The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests

Author

Reyer, Christopher P. O., Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, Dolos, Klara, Hartig, Florian, Hauf, Ylva, Noack, Matthias, Lasch-Born, Petra, Rötzer, Thomas, Pretzsch, Hans, Mesenburg, Henning, Fleck, Stefan, Wagner, Markus, Bolte, Andreas, Sanders, Tanja G. M., Kolari, Pasi, Mäkelä, Annikki, Vesala, Timo, Mammarella, Ivan, Pumpanen, Jukka, Collalti, Alessio, Trotta, Carlo, Matteucci, Giorgio, D'Andrea, Ettore, Foltýnová, Lenka, Krejza, Jan, Ibrom, Andreas, Pilegaard, Kim, Loustau, Denis, Bonnefond, Jean-Marc, Berbigier, Paul, Picart, Delphine, Lafont, Sebastien, Dietze, Michael, Cameron, David, Vieno, Massimo, Tian, Hanqin, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, Cicuendez, Victor, Recuero, Laura, Wiese, Klaus, Büchner, Matthias, Lange, Stefan, Volkholz, Jan, Kim, Hyungjun, Weedon, Graham P., Sheffield, Justin, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, Suckow, Felicitas, Horemans, Joanna A., Martel, Simon, Bohn, Friedrich, Steinkamp, Jörg, Chikalanov, Alexander, Mahnken, Mats, Gutsch, Martin, and Frieler, Katja

Abstract

Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage of this database is its wide coverage of multiple data sources at different hierarchical and temporal scales, together with environmental driving data as well as the latest climate scenarios. Specifically, the PROFOUND DB provides general site descriptions, soil, climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition, tree and forest stand-level, as well as remote sensing data for nine contrasting forest stands distributed across Europe. Moreover, for a subset of five sites, time series of carbon fluxes, atmospheric heat conduction, and soil water are also available. The climate and nitrogen deposition data contain several datasets for the historic period and a wide range of future climate change scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). We also provide pre-industrial climate simulations that allow for model runs aimed at disentangling the contribution of climate change to observed forest productivity changes. The PROFOUND DB is available freely as a SQLite relational database or ASCII flat file version (at https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2019.008). The data policies of the individual, contributing datasets are provided in the metadata of each data file. The PROFOUND DB can also be accessed via the ProfoundData R-package (https://github.com/COST-FP1304-PROFOUND/ProfoundData), which provides basic functions to explore, plot, and extract the data for model set-up, calibration and evaluation.

Published
2019

40. Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

Author

Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (UK), European Commission, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Australian Research Council, Lotze, Heike K., Tittensor, Derek P., Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Eddy, Tyler D., Cheung, William W.L., Galbraith, Eric D., Barangé, Manuel, Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Blanchard, Julia L., Bopp, Laurent, Büchner, Matthias, Bulman, Catherine, Carozza, David A., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Jennings, S., Jones, Miranda C., Mackinson, Steven, Maury, Olivier, Niiranen, Susa, Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo, Roy, Tilla, Fernandes-Salvador, José A., Schewe, Jacob, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Silva, Tiago A.M., Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A., Verley, Philippe, Volkholz, Jan, Walker, Nicola D., Worm, Boris, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (UK), European Commission, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Australian Research Council, Lotze, Heike K., Tittensor, Derek P., Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Eddy, Tyler D., Cheung, William W.L., Galbraith, Eric D., Barangé, Manuel, Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Blanchard, Julia L., Bopp, Laurent, Büchner, Matthias, Bulman, Catherine, Carozza, David A., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Jennings, S., Jones, Miranda C., Mackinson, Steven, Maury, Olivier, Niiranen, Susa, Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo, Roy, Tilla, Fernandes-Salvador, José A., Schewe, Jacob, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Silva, Tiago A.M., Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A., Verley, Philippe, Volkholz, Jan, Walker, Nicola D., and Worm, Boris

Abstract

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends

Published
2019

41. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Author

European Commission, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Schewe, Jacob, Gosling, Simon, Reyer, Christopher, Zhao, Fang, Ciais, Philippe, Elliott, Joshua, Francois, Louis M., Huber, Veronika, Lotze, Heike K., Seneviratne, Sonia I., van Vliet, Michelle, Vautard, Robert, Wada, Yoshihide, Breuer, Lutz, Büchner, Matthias, Carozza, David A., Chang, Jinfeng, Coll, Marta, Deryng, Delphine, de Wit, Allard, Eddy, Tyler D., Folberth, Christian, Frieler, Katja, Friend, Andrew D., Gerten, Dieter, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Hanasaki, Naota, Ito, Akihiko, Khabarov, Nikolay, Kim, Hyungjun, Lawrence, Peter, Morfopoulos, Catherine, Müller, Christoph, Schmied, Hannes Müller, Orth, René, Ostberg, Sebastian, Pokhrel, Yadu, Pugh, Thomas A.M., Sakurai, Gen, Satoh, Yusuke, Schmid, Erwin, Stacke, Tobias, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Steinkamp, Jörg, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Hanqin, Tittensor, Derek P., Volkholz, Jan, Wang, Xuhui, Warszawski, Lila, European Commission, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Schewe, Jacob, Gosling, Simon, Reyer, Christopher, Zhao, Fang, Ciais, Philippe, Elliott, Joshua, Francois, Louis M., Huber, Veronika, Lotze, Heike K., Seneviratne, Sonia I., van Vliet, Michelle, Vautard, Robert, Wada, Yoshihide, Breuer, Lutz, Büchner, Matthias, Carozza, David A., Chang, Jinfeng, Coll, Marta, Deryng, Delphine, de Wit, Allard, Eddy, Tyler D., Folberth, Christian, Frieler, Katja, Friend, Andrew D., Gerten, Dieter, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Hanasaki, Naota, Ito, Akihiko, Khabarov, Nikolay, Kim, Hyungjun, Lawrence, Peter, Morfopoulos, Catherine, Müller, Christoph, Schmied, Hannes Müller, Orth, René, Ostberg, Sebastian, Pokhrel, Yadu, Pugh, Thomas A.M., Sakurai, Gen, Satoh, Yusuke, Schmid, Erwin, Stacke, Tobias, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Steinkamp, Jörg, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Hanqin, Tittensor, Derek P., Volkholz, Jan, Wang, Xuhui, and Warszawski, Lila

Abstract

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought

Published
2019

42. A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models : fish-MIP v1.0

Author

Tittensor, Derek P., Eddy, Tyler D., Lotze, Heike K., Galbraith, Eric, Cheung, William W. L., Barange, Manuel, Blanchard, Julia L., Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Büchner, Matthias, Bulman, Catherine, Carozza, David A., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, Johan, Fernandes, José A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Hobday, Alistair J., Huber, Veronika, Jennings, Simon, Jones, Miranda, Lehodey, Patrick, Link, Jason S., Mackinson, Steve, Maury, Olivier, Niiranen, Susa, Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo, Roy, Tilla, Schewe, Jacob, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Silva, Tiago, Stock, Charles A., Steenbeek, Jeroen, Underwood, Philip J., Volkholz, Jan, Watson, James R., Walker, Nicola, and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Matemàtiques

Abstract

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552 Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within-and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium-and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

Published
2018

43. Supplementary material to "The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests"

Author

Reyer, Christopher P. O., primary, Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, additional, Dolos, Klara, additional, Hartig, Florian, additional, Hauf, Ylva, additional, Noack, Matthias, additional, Lasch-Born, Petra, additional, Rötzer, Thomas, additional, Pretzsch, Hans, additional, Mesenburg, Henning, additional, Fleck, Stefan, additional, Wagner, Markus, additional, Bolte, Andreas, additional, Sanders, Tanja G. M., additional, Kolari, Pasi, additional, Mäkelä, Annikki, additional, Vesala, Timo, additional, Mammarella, Ivan, additional, Pumpanen, Jukka, additional, Collalti, Alessio, additional, Trotta, Carlo, additional, Matteucci, Giorgio, additional, D'Andrea, Ettore, additional, Foltýnová, Lenka, additional, Krejza, Jan, additional, Ibrom, Andreas, additional, Pilegaard, Kim, additional, Loustau, Denis, additional, Bonnefond, Jean-Marc, additional, Berbigier, Paul, additional, Picart, Delphine, additional, Lafont, Sébastien, additional, Dietze, Michael, additional, Cameron, David, additional, Vieno, Massimo, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, additional, Cicuendez, Victor, additional, Recuero, Laura, additional, Wiese, Klaus, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Lange, Stefan, additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Kim, Hyungjun, additional, Weedon, Graham P., additional, Sheffield, Justin, additional, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, additional, Suckow, Felicitas, additional, Horemans, Joanna A., additional, Martel, Simon, additional, Bohn, Friedrich, additional, Steinkamp, Jörg, additional, Chikalanov, Alexander, additional, Mahnken, Mats, additional, Gutsch, Martin, additional, and Frieler, Katja, additional

Published
2019
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44. The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests

Author

Reyer, Christopher P. O., primary, Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, additional, Dolos, Klara, additional, Hartig, Florian, additional, Hauf, Ylva, additional, Noack, Matthias, additional, Lasch-Born, Petra, additional, Rötzer, Thomas, additional, Pretzsch, Hans, additional, Mesenburg, Henning, additional, Fleck, Stefan, additional, Wagner, Markus, additional, Bolte, Andreas, additional, Sanders, Tanja G. M., additional, Kolari, Pasi, additional, Mäkelä, Annikki, additional, Vesala, Timo, additional, Mammarella, Ivan, additional, Pumpanen, Jukka, additional, Collalti, Alessio, additional, Trotta, Carlo, additional, Matteucci, Giorgio, additional, D'Andrea, Ettore, additional, Foltýnová, Lenka, additional, Krejza, Jan, additional, Ibrom, Andreas, additional, Pilegaard, Kim, additional, Loustau, Denis, additional, Bonnefond, Jean-Marc, additional, Berbigier, Paul, additional, Picart, Delphine, additional, Lafont, Sébastien, additional, Dietze, Michael, additional, Cameron, David, additional, Vieno, Massimo, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, additional, Cicuendez, Victor, additional, Recuero, Laura, additional, Wiese, Klaus, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Lange, Stefan, additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Kim, Hyungjun, additional, Weedon, Graham P., additional, Sheffield, Justin, additional, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, additional, Suckow, Felicitas, additional, Horemans, Joanna A., additional, Martel, Simon, additional, Bohn, Friedrich, additional, Steinkamp, Jörg, additional, Chikalanov, Alexander, additional, Mahnken, Mats, additional, Gutsch, Martin, additional, and Frieler, Katja, additional

Published
2019
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48. Ensemble projections of global ocean animal biomass with climate change

Author

Lotze, Heike K., primary, Tittensor, Derek P., additional, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, additional, Eddy, Tyler D., additional, Cheung, William W. L., additional, Galbraith, Eric D., additional, Barange, Manuel, additional, Barrier, Nicolas, additional, Bianchi, Daniele, additional, Blanchard, Julia L., additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Bulman, Catherine, additional, Carozza, David A., additional, Christensen, Villy, additional, Coll, Marta, additional, Dunne, John, additional, Fulton, Elizabeth A., additional, Jennings, Simon, additional, Jones, Miranda, additional, Mackinson, Steve, additional, Maury, Olivier, additional, Niiranen, Susa, additional, OliverosRamos, Ricardo, additional, Roy, Tilla, additional, Fernandes, José A., additional, Schewe, Jacob, additional, Shin, Yunne-Jai, additional, Silva, Tiago A. M., additional, Steenbeek, Jeroen, additional, Stock, Charles A., additional, Verley, Philippe, additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, and Walker, Nicola D., additional

Published
2018
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49. A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

Author

Tittensor, Derek P., primary, Eddy, Tyler D., additional, Lotze, Heike K., additional, Galbraith, Eric D., additional, Cheung, William, additional, Barange, Manuel, additional, Blanchard, Julia L., additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Bulman, Catherine, additional, Carozza, David A., additional, Christensen, Villy, additional, Coll, Marta, additional, Dunne, John P., additional, Fernandes, Jose A., additional, Fulton, Elizabeth A., additional, Hobday, Alistair J., additional, Huber, Veronika, additional, Jennings, Simon, additional, Jones, Miranda, additional, Lehodey, Patrick, additional, Link, Jason S., additional, Mackinson, Steve, additional, Maury, Olivier, additional, Niiranen, Susa, additional, Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo, additional, Roy, Tilla, additional, Schewe, Jacob, additional, Shin, Yunne-Jai, additional, Silva, Tiago, additional, Stock, Charles A., additional, Steenbeek, Jeroen, additional, Underwood, Philip J., additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Watson, James R., additional, and Walker, Nicola D., additional

Published
2018
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