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Human migration triggered by flooding will create sociodemographic, economic, and cultural challenges in coastal communities, and adaptation to these challenges will primarily occur at the municipal level. However, existing migration models at larger spatial scales do not necessarily capture relevant social responses to flooding at the local and municipal levels. Furthermore, projecting migration dynamics into the future becomes difficult due to uncertainties in human–environment interactions, particularly when historic observations are used for model calibration. This study proposes a stochastic agent-based model (ABM) designed for the long-term projection of municipal-scale migration due to repeated flood events. A baseline model is demonstrated initially, capable of using stochastic bottom-up decision rules to replicate county-level population. This approach is then combined with physical flood-exposure data to simulate how population projections diverge under different flooding assumptions. The methodology is applied to a study area comprising 16 counties in coastal Virginia and Maryland, U.S., and include rural areas which are often overlooked in adaptation research. The results show that incorporating flood impacts results in divergent population growth patterns in both urban and rural locations, demonstrating potential municipal-level migration response to coastal flooding.

This article explores the role of contextual neighborhood-level considerations in community resilience planning in coastal urban locations. A comparative case study analysis was conducted in three different locations in the City of Hampton, Virginia, that all share a common challenge of coastal flooding but have distinctly different neighborhood-level circumstances that shape their flood impacts and resilience building options. The research approach utilizes a co-production of knowledge and descriptive statistics to identify the overall flood risk and socioeconomic attributes of each locality that may influence broader citywide resilience investments within the realm of three overarching options: protection, accommodation, and relocation. It then applies a geospatial network analysis to determine which study neighborhoods will have significantly reduced access to critical facilities such as emergency services, medical facilities, and schools due to accelerated sea level rise as one of the key coastal hazards in this low-lying region. The results show that each case study location has its own unique contextual circumstances that define its preferences for different resilience strategies regardless of the actual flood risk. The results also highlight the importance of holistic assessment of granular conditions that play a critical role in prioritization of resource allocation and interventions in coastal municipalities.

Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stakeholders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to assess risk and its causes, support adaptive management, and improve the resiliency of communities. Better communication of information and understanding among residents and officials is essential. Here we review recent background literature on these matters and offer recommendations for integrating natural and social sciences. We advocate for a cyber-network of scientists, modelers, engineers, educators, and stakeholders from academia, federal state and local agencies, non-governmental organizations, residents, and the private sector. Our vision is to enhance future resilience of LECZ communities by offering approaches to mitigate hazards to human health, safety and welfare and reduce impacts to coastal residents and industries.

This article explores the role of contextual neighborhood-level considerations in community resilience planning in coastal urban locations. A comparative case study analysis was conducted in three different locations in the City of Hampton, Virginia, that all share a common challenge of coastal flooding but have distinctly different neighborhood-level circumstances that shape their flood impacts and resilience building options. The research approach utilizes a co-production of knowledge and descriptive statistics to identify the overall flood risk and socioeconomic attributes of each locality that may influence broader citywide resilience investments within the realm of three overarching options: protection, accommodation, and relocation. It then applies a geospatial network analysis to determine which study neighborhoods will have significantly reduced access to critical facilities such as emergency services, medical facilities, and schools due to accelerated sea level rise as one of the key coastal hazards in this low-lying region. The results show that each case study location has its own unique contextual circumstances that define its preferences for different resilience strategies regardless of the actual flood risk. The results also highlight the importance of holistic assessment of granular conditions that play a critical role in prioritization of resource allocation and interventions in coastal municipalities.

Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stakeholders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to assess risk and its causes, support adaptive management, and improve the resiliency of communities. Better communication of information and understanding among residents and officials is essential. Here we review recent background literature on these matters and offer recommendations for integrating natural and social sciences. We advocate for a cyber-network of scientists, modelers, engineers, educators, and stakeholders from academia, federal state and local agencies, non-governmental organizations, residents, and the private sector. Our vision is to enhance future resilience of LECZ communities by offering approaches to mitigate hazards to human health, safety and welfare and reduce impacts to coastal residents and industries.

Coastal areas worldwide represent an aggregation of population and assets of growing economic, geopolitical, and sociocultural significance, yet their functions are increasingly challenged by worsening coastal hazards. Vulnerability assessments have been recognized as one way we can better understand which geographic areas and segments of society are more susceptible to adverse impacts from different stressors or hazards. The aims of this paper are to evaluate the state of coastal vulnerability assessment mapping efforts and to identify opportunities for advancement and refinement that will lead to more cohesive, impactful, and policy-relevant coastal vulnerability studies. We conducted a systematic review of the literature that addresses physical and social vulnerability to coastal hazards and contains corresponding mapping products. The content was analyzed for the scale of analysis, location, disciplinary focus, conceptual framework, metrics used, methodological approach, data sources, mapping output, and policy relevance. Results showed that most Coastal Vulnerability Mapping Assessments (CVMAs) are conducted at the local level using a range of methodologies, often with limited inclusion of social considerations and limited discussion of policy relevance. Based on our analysis, we provide seven recommendations for the advancement of this field that would improve CVMAs’ methodological rigor, policy relevance, and alignment with other vulnerability assessment paradigms.

Coastal areas worldwide represent an aggregation of population and assets of growing economic, geopolitical, and sociocultural significance, yet their functions are increasingly challenged by worsening coastal hazards. Vulnerability assessments have been recognized as one way we can better understand which geographic areas and segments of society are more susceptible to adverse impacts from different stressors or hazards. The aims of this paper are to evaluate the state of coastal vulnerability assessment mapping efforts and to identify opportunities for advancement and refinement that will lead to more cohesive, impactful, and policy-relevant coastal vulnerability studies. We conducted a systematic review of the literature that addresses physical and social vulnerability to coastal hazards and contains corresponding mapping products. The content was analyzed for the scale of analysis, location, disciplinary focus, conceptual framework, metrics used, methodological approach, data sources, mapping output, and policy relevance. Results showed that most Coastal Vulnerability Mapping Assessments (CVMAs) are conducted at the local level using a range of methodologies, often with limited inclusion of social considerations and limited discussion of policy relevance. Based on our analysis, we provide seven recommendations for the advancement of this field that would improve CVMAs’ methodological rigor, policy relevance, and alignment with other vulnerability assessment paradigms.

The cognitive dissonance between the need for relocation as an adaptation strategy and the reluctance to consider this option among stakeholders may result in maladaptation in communities highly vulnerable to coastal hazards. This study presents an interactive communication tool, Coastal Relocation Leaf (CRL), designed to facilitate an understanding of the circumstances that may lead to relocation. The tool is designed to allow users to explore “what-if” scenarios, fostering further conversation about the complexities and trade-offs associated with the possibility of relocation in coastal communities. The tool is visualized using the Adobe Flash platform and refined using expert evaluation.

The cognitive dissonance between the need for relocation as an adaptation strategy and the reluctance to consider this option among stakeholders may result in maladaptation in communities highly vulnerable to coastal hazards. This study presents an interactive communication tool, Coastal Relocation Leaf (CRL), designed to facilitate an understanding of the circumstances that may lead to relocation. The tool is designed to allow users to explore “what-if” scenarios, fostering further conversation about the complexities and trade-offs associated with the possibility of relocation in coastal communities. The tool is visualized using the Adobe Flash platform and refined using expert evaluation.

More than half of the world’s human population lives within 40 miles of the sea. Coastal cities are the backbone of global finance, trade, manufacturing, and transportation. Millions of people worldwide travel to beaches for recreation. Coastal fisheries and aquaculture are key sources of food, and the chief source of protein in most developing countries. The coast is home to a diverse range of plants and animals, some commercially valuable, some threatened or endangered, and all part of unique ecosystems. Coastal livelihoods, tourism, fish and wildlife species, and ecosystem services are threatened by climate change and its associated impact on coastal hazards. Flooding and coastal disasters from New York to Kolkata have killed thousands of people and cost trillions of dollars. By 2100 more than 100 million people could be displaced by sea-level change, 13 million in the U.S. alone. The stability of the global economy is threatened by sea-level change...