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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

Statistical bias adjustment is commonly applied to climate models before using their results in impact studies. However, different methods based on a distributional mapping between observational and model data can change the simulated trends as well as the spatiotemporal and inter-variable consistency of the model, and are prone to misuse if not evaluated thoroughly. Despite the importance of these fundamental issues, researchers who apply bias adjustment currently do not have the tools at hand to compare different methods or evaluate the results sufficiently to detect possible distortions. Because of this, widespread practice in statistical bias adjustment is not aligned with recommendations from the academic literature. To address the practical issues impeding this, we introduce ibicus, an open-source Python package for the implementation of eight different peer-reviewed and widely used bias adjustment methods in a common framework and their comprehensive evaluation. The evaluation framework introduced in ibicus allows the user to analyse changes to the marginal, spatiotemporal and inter-variable structure of user-defined climate indices and distributional properties as well as any alteration of the climate change trend simulated in the model. Applying ibicus in a case study over the Mediterranean region using seven CMIP6 global circulation models, this study finds that the most appropriate bias adjustment method depends on the variable and impact studied, and that even methods that aim to preserve the climate change trend can modify it. These findings highlight the importance of use-case-specific selection of the method and the need for a rigorous evaluation of results when applying statistical bias adjustment.

Background: In the last decade many clinical research centers in Italy have increasingly implemented and improved their quality standards and effectiveness of processes through the adoption of a quality management system also according to the certification ISO 9001:2015. Objective: The aim of this project is to evaluate expected benefits and barriers of ISO 9001 certification for a Clinical Trial Center. Material and methods: On April 2021, the Italian Group of Data Manager and Clinical Research Coordinator spread an anonymous online survey to healthcare professionals operating in clinical research and quality management systems at research sites. Results: Reported benefits of ISO oriented Quality Management System adoption include continual improvement and better-quality processes (73.3%), assuring corrective actions (63.6%), planning internal audits (60.2%) and risk management approach (60.7%). The most important barriers to QMS implementation are increased logistical and/or organizational activities (40.9%) and insufficient training on quality programs (29.5%). Conclusions: Implementing a quality management system represents a challenge for the Clinical Trial Center and helps to improve quality standards and risk management approach. The use of electronic tools is poor and could be increased in the future. Lastly, improvement of continuous QMS trainings should be necessary for updating professionals and optimizing activities within the Clinical Trial Center.

A comparison of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) occurrence from 2006 to 2010 is presented, as observed from the ground-based lidar station at McMurdo (Antarctica) and by the satellite-borne CALIOP lidar (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) measuring over McMurdo. McMurdo (Antarctica) is one of the primary lidar stations for aerosol measurements of the NDACC (Network for Detection of Atmospheric Climate Change). The ground-based observations have been classified with an algorithm derived from the recent v2 detection and classification scheme, used to classify PSCs observed by CALIOP. A statistical approach has been used to compare ground-based and satellite-based observations, since point-to-point comparison is often troublesome due to the intrinsic differences in the observation geometries and the imperfect overlap of the observed areas. A comparison of space-borne lidar observations and a selection of simulations obtained from chemistry–climate models (CCMs) has been made by using a series of quantitative diagnostics based on the statistical occurrence of different PSC types. The distribution of PSCs over Antarctica, calculated by several CCMVal-2 and CCMI chemistry–climate models has been compared with the PSC coverage observed by the satellite-borne CALIOP lidar. The use of several diagnostic tools, including the temperature dependence of the PSC occurrences, evidences the merits and flaws of the different models. The diagnostic methods have been defined to overcome (at least partially) the possible differences due to the resolution of the models and to identify differences due to microphysics (e.g., the dependence of PSC occurrence on T−TNAT). A significant temperature bias of most models has been observed, as well as a limited ability to reproduce the longitudinal variations in PSC occurrences observed by CALIOP. In particular, a strong temperature bias has been observed in CCMVal-2 models with a strong impact on PSC formation. The WACCM-CCMI (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model – Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative) model compares rather well with the CALIOP observations, although a temperature bias is still present.

The Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) aims to improve the fidelity of tropical stratospheric variability in general circulation and Earth system models by conducting coordinated numerical experiments and analysis. In the equatorial stratosphere, the QBO is the most conspicuous mode of variability. Five coordinated experiments have therefore been designed to (i) evaluate and compare the verisimilitude of modelled QBOs under present-day conditions, (ii) identify robustness (or alternatively the spread and uncertainty) in the simulated QBO response to commonly imposed changes in model climate forcings (e.g. a doubling of CO2 amounts), and (iii) examine model dependence of QBO predictability. This paper documents these experiments and the recommended output diagnostics. The rationale behind the experimental design and choice of diagnostics is presented. To facilitate scientific interpretation of the results in other planned QBOi studies, consistent descriptions of the models performing each experiment set are given, with those aspects particularly relevant for simulating the QBO tabulated for easy comparison.

In response to global warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation in the stratosphere is expected to accelerate and the mean transport time of air along this circulation to decrease. This would imply a negative stratospheric age of air trend, i.e. an air parcel would need less time to travel from the tropopause to any point in the stratosphere. Age of air as inferred from tracer observations, however, shows zero to positive trends in the northern mid-latitude stratosphere and zonally asymmetric patterns. Using satellite observations and model calculations we show that the observed latitudinal and vertical patterns of the decadal changes of age of air in the lower to middle stratosphere during the period 2002–2012 are predominantly caused by a southward shift of the circulation pattern by about 5°. After correction for this shift, the observations reveal a hemispherically almost symmetric decrease of age of air in the lower to middle stratosphere up to 800 K of up to −0.25 years over the 2002–2012 period with strongest decrease in the northern tropics. This net change is consistent with long-term trends from model predictions.

Solar radiation is the main source of energy for the Earth's atmosphere and in many respects defines its composition, photochemistry, temperature profile and dynamics. The magnitude of the solar irradiance variability strongly depends on the wavelength, making difficult its representation in climate models. Due to some deficiencies in the applied radiation codes, several models fail to show a clear response in middle stratospheric heating rates to solar spectral irradiance variability; therefore, it is important to evaluate model performance in this respect before doing multiple runs. In this work we evaluate the performance of three generations of ECHAM (4, 5 and 6) solar radiation schemes by a comparison with the reference high-resolution libRadtran code. We found that all original ECHAM radiation codes miss almost all solar signals in the heating rates in the mesosphere. In the stratosphere the two-band ECHAM4 code (E4) has an almost negligible radiative response to solar irradiance changes and the six-band ECHAM5 code (E5c) reproduces only about half of the reference signal, while representation in the ECHAM6 code (E6) is better – it misses a maximum of about 15% in the upper stratosphere. On the basis of the comparison results we suggest necessary improvements to the ECHAM family codes by the inclusion of available parameterizations of the heating rate due to absorption by oxygen (O2) and ozone (O3). Improvement is presented for E5c and E6, and both codes, with the introduced parameterizations, represent the heating rate response to the spectral solar irradiance variability simulated with libRadtran much better without a substantial increase in computer time. The suggested parameterizations are recommended to be applied in the middle-atmosphere version of the ECHAM-5 and 6 models for the study of the solar irradiance influence on climate.

This work quantifies the spatial distribution of different aerosol types, their seasonal variability and sources.The analysis of four years of CALIOP (Cloud–Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization) vertically resolved aerosol data allows the identification of spatial patterns of desert dust and carbonaceous particles in different atmospheric layers. Clusters of Lagrangian back trajectories highlight the transport pathways from source regions during the dusty spring season. The analysis shows a prevalence of dust; at low heights it occurs frequently (up to 70% of available observations) and is distributed north of the Tibetan Plateau with a main contribution from the Gobi and Taklamakan deserts, and west of the Tibetan Plateau, originating from the deserts of southwest Asia and advected by the Westerlies. Above the Himalayas the dust amount is minor but still not negligible (occurrence around 20%) and mainly affected by the transport from more distant deserts sources (Sahara and Arabian Peninsula). Carbonaceous aerosol, produced mainly in northern India and eastern China, is subject to shorter-range transport and is indeed observed closer to the sources, while there is a limited amount reaching the top of the plateau. Data analysis reveals a clear seasonal variability in the frequencies of occurrence for the main aerosol types; dust is regulated principally by the monsoon dynamics, with maximal occurrence in spring. We also highlight relevant interannual differences, showing a larger presence of aerosol in the region during 2007 and 2008. The characterization of the aerosol spatial and temporal distribution in terms of observational frequency is a key piece of information that can be directly used for the evaluation of global aerosol models.

We present the analysis of the impact of convection on the composition of the tropical tropopause layer region (TTL) in West-Africa during the AMMA-SCOUT campaign. Geophysica M55 aircraft observations of water vapor, ozone, aerosol and CO2 during August 2006 show perturbed values at altitudes ranging from 14 km to 17 km (above the main convective outflow) and satellite data indicates that air detrainment is likely to have originated from convective cloud east of the flights. Simulations of the BOLAM mesoscale model, nudged with infrared radiance temperatures, are used to estimate the convective impact in the upper troposphere and to assess the fraction of air processed by convection. The analysis shows that BOLAM correctly reproduces the location and the vertical structure of convective outflow. Model-aided analysis indicates that convection can influence the composition of the upper troposphere above the level of main outflow for an event of deep convection close to the observation site. Model analysis also shows that deep convection occurring in the entire Sahelian transect (up to 2000 km E of the measurement area) has a non negligible role in determining TTL composition.

A suite of diagnostics is applied to in-situ aircraft measurements and one Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) data to characterize the vertical structure of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). The diagnostics are based on vertical tracer profiles and relative vertical tracer gradients, using tropopause-referenced coordinates, and tracer-tracer relationships in the tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UT/LS). Observations were obtained during four tropical campaigns performed from 1999 to 2006 with the research aircraft Geophysica and have been compared to the output of the ECHAM5/MESSy CCM. The model vertical resolution in the TTL (~500 m) allows for appropriate comparison with high-resolution aircraft observations and the diagnostics used highlight common TTL features between the model and the observational data. The analysis of the vertical profiles of water vapour, ozone, and nitrous oxide, in both the observations and the model, shows that concentration mixing ratios exhibit a strong gradient change across the tropical tropopause, due to the role of this latter as a transport barrier and that transition between the tropospheric and stratospheric regimes occurs within a finite layer. The use of relative vertical ozone and carbon monoxide gradients, in addition to the vertical profiles, helps to highlight the region where this transition occurs and allows to give an estimate of its thickness. The analysis of the CO-O3 and H2O-O3 scatter plots and of the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the H2O-O3 pair completes this picture as it allows to better distinguish tropospheric and stratospheric regimes that can be identified by their different chemical composition. The joint analysis and comparison of observed and modelled data allows to state that the model can represent the background TTL structure and its seasonal variability rather accurately. The model estimate of the thickness of the interface region between tropospheric and stratospheric regimes agrees well with average values inferred from observations. On the other hand, the measurements can be influenced by regional scale variability, local transport processes as well as deep convection, that can not be captured by the model.

The connection between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Northern polar stratosphere has been established from observations and atmospheric modeling. Here a systematic inter-comparison of the sensitivity of the modeled stratosphere to ENSO in Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) is reported. This work uses results from a number of the CCMs included in the 2006 ozone assessment. In the lower stratosphere, the mean of all model simulations reports a warming of the polar vortex during strong ENSO events in February–March, consistent with but smaller than the estimate from satellite observations and ERA40 reanalysis. The anomalous warming is associated with an anomalous dynamical increase of column ozone north of 70° N that is accompanied by coherent column ozone decrease in the Tropics, in agreement with that deduced from the NIWA column ozone database, implying an increased residual circulation in the mean of all model simulations during ENSO. The spread in the model responses is partly due to the large internal stratospheric variability and it is shown that it crucially depends on the representation of the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection in the models.

During the APE-THESEO mission in the Indian Ocean the Myasishchev Design Bureau stratospheric research aircraft M55 Geophysica performed a flight over and within the inner core region of tropical cyclone Davina. Measurements of total water, water vapour, temperature, aerosol backscattering, ozone and tracers were made and are discussed here in comparison with the averages of those quantities acquired during the campaign time frame. Temperature anomalies in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), warmer than average in the lower part and colder than average in the upper TTL were observed. Ozone was strongly reduced compared to its average value, and thick cirrus decks were present up to the cold point, sometimes topped by a layer of very dry air. Evidence for meridional transport of trace gases in the stratosphere above the cyclone was observed and perturbed water distribution in the TTL was documented. The paper discuss possible processes of dehydration induced by the cirrus forming above the cyclone, and change in the chemical tracer and water distribution in the lower stratosphere 400–430 K due to meridional transport from the mid-latitudes and link with Davina. Moreover it compares the data prior and after the cyclone passage to discuss its actual impact on the atmospheric chemistry and thermodynamics.

In order to improve the representation of ozone absorption in the stratosphere of the MAECHAM5 general circulation model, the spectral resolution of the shortwave radiation parameterization used in the model has been increased from 4 to 6 bands. Two 20-years simulations with the general circulation model have been performed, one with the standard and the other with the newly introduced parameterization respectively, to evaluate the temperature and dynamical changes arising from the two different representations of the shortwave radiative transfer. In the simulation with the increased spectral resolution in the radiation parameterization, a significant warming of almost the entire model domain is reported. At the summer stratopause the temperature increase is about 6 K and alleviates the cold bias present in the model when the standard radiation scheme is used. These general circulation model results are consistent both with previous validation of the radiation scheme and with the offline clear-sky comparison performed in the current work with a discrete ordinate 4 stream scattering line by line radiative transfer model. The offline validation shows a substantial reduction of the daily averaged shortwave heating rate bias (1–2 K/day cooling) that occurs for the standard radiation parameterization in the upper stratosphere, present under a range of atmospheric conditions. Therefore, the 6 band shortwave radiation parameterization is considered to be better suited for the representation of the ozone absorption in the stratosphere than the 4 band parameterization. Concerning the dynamical response in the general circulation model, it is found that the reported warming at the summer stratopause induces stronger zonal mean zonal winds in the middle atmosphere. These stronger zonal mean zonal winds thereafter appear to produce a dynamical feedback that results in a dynamical warming (cooling) of the polar winter (summer) mesosphere, caused by an increased downward (upward) circulation in the winter (summer) hemisphere. In addition, the comparison of the two simulations performed with the general circulation model shows that the increase in the spectral resolution of the shortwave radiation and the associated changes in the cloud optical properties result in a warming (0.5–1 K) and moistening (3%–12%) of the upper tropical troposphere. By comparing these modeled differences with previous works, it appears that the reported changes in the solar radiation scheme contribute to improve the model mean temperature also in the troposphere.

Background: The prognosis of patients with Relapsed/Refractory Osteosarcoma (R/R OS) remains dismal without an agreement on systemic therapy. The use of High-Dose Ifosfamide (14 g/sqm) with an external pump in outpatient setting (14-IFO) in R/R OS patients is limited. This study represents the first retrospective cohort analysis focused on evaluating the activity and toxicity of 14-IFO in this setting., Patients and Methods: The study investigated 14-IFO activity, in terms of tumour response according to RECIST 1.1 criteria, as well as survival rates and toxicity, according to CTCAE v.5., Results: The trial enrolled 26 patients with R/R OS. The Overall Response Rate (ORR) and Disease Control Rate (DCR) obtained was 23% and 57.5%, respectively. Patients with relapsed OS showed a higher ORR (45%) and DCR (82%) compared to refractory patients, irrespective of the number of prior treatment lines received. The achievement of disease control with 14-IFO administration enabled 27% of patients to undergo new local treatment. Four-month Progression-Free Survival (PFS) was 54% for all patients and 82% for the relapsed OS sub-group. Median Overall Survival (OSurv) was 13.7 months, with 1-year OSurv of 51% for all patients and 71% for relapsed patients. Age over 18 years and the presence of refractory disease were identified as negative prognostic factors for this patient cohort. A total of 101 cycles were evaluated for toxic assessment, demonstrating a tolerable profile without grade 3-4 non-haematological toxicities., Conclusions: 14-IFO should be considered a viable treatment option for R/R OS, particularly due to its well tolerated toxicity profile and the potential for home-administration, which can improve patient quality of life without compromising efficacy., (© 2024. The Author(s).)