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Achieving the dual goals of improving water quality and reducing carbon emissions requires a systematic study of the combined effects of economic and environmental policies on industrial systems. A CGE-IWCR model is developed to examine the long-term evolution of industrial economic and environmental responses in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) under varying levels of carbon and water pollution taxes. The CGE-IWCE model offers several advantages: i) under the dual tax (carbon and water pollution tax) interventions, it can effectively forecast industrial CO2 and water pollution emissions driven by both macro and local factors from 2025 to 2060; ii) it quantitatively captures the interactions between various policy interventions, thereby providing guidance for comprehensive regional policy formulation. It is discovered that in the double-tax scenario, various combinations of carbon and water pollution taxes significantly impact direct carbon emissions and direct water pollution emissions, and from local consumption, imports, and exports in industrial sectors. Among them, the dual pressure of high carbon and water pollution taxes, which significantly raise production costs. In addition, increasing the carbon tax from 10 ¥/tonne to 50 ¥/tonne, the water pollution equivalent (WPE) reduction rate rises from 20.79% to 52.67% with the increase in the carbon tax from 2050 to 2060, when the water pollution tax is low. Between 2025 and 2060, the carbon tax plays a significant role in influencing the total industrial output change rate in YREB. from 2025 to 2060, the water pollution tax will play a more significant role in CO2 reduction in YREB's industrial sector. The results will offer decision-making support for water pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in the YREB's industrial sector, quantitatively identify the interactions between the dual taxes, and provide new insights for analyzing the impacts of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the impacts of food price increase on households' consumption and welfare in Togo and the efficiency of policy measures, such as cash transfers and food subsidies, implemented by the Togolese government to dampen the adverse impacts. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used given its appropriateness in handling economy‐wide and the welfare effect of specific policies. Simulation results show that an increase in food prices has adversely affected the consumption and welfare of all categories of households. The most affected households are self‐employed in the agriculture and other sectors, seasonal workers, trainees, and housekeepers. However, the study reveals that these adverse effects are mitigated by the government's policy responses, notably through cash transfers and food subsidies. Furthermore, the cash transfer policy seems to have a slightly greater positive effect on household consumption and welfare in response to rising food prices in Togo compared to food subsidies. This indicates that cash transfers mitigated the negative impact of food price increases on the population more effectively than food subsidies policies. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers in optimizing public interventions and striking a balance between various policy options to address hunger and malnutrition within targeted households in Togo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A CGE model with a detailed electricity technology module was built. • CCS deployment target in the power sector under China's carbon neutrality can be achieved. • Socio-economic and environmental effects of different incentive policies were evaluated. • Sensitivity analysis performed and policy recommendations provided. Given the carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is still in the demonstration phase, large-scale deployment of CCS is urgently needed in the coming decades, especially in the power sector. Therefore, we built a computable general equilibrium model with detailed electricity technology module and assessed the economy-wide impacts of multiple incentive policies on large-scale deployment of CCS in the power sector. Results show that, first, if only CCS is subsidized, without supplementing carbon pricing, it will lead to deviations from the core environmental objectives of CCS development. Secondly, when CCS subsidies are combined with carbon pricing, if the sectoral indirect tax is reduced, the GDP loss can be better alleviated, and it can also have an obvious positive impact on energy conservation and emission reduction. Finally, a gradual sector-coverage way of carbon pricing contributes to further mitigating the accumulated GDP loss, easing sectoral profit losses, and improving positive effects on energy indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 pandemic triggered a massive economic policy response in all developed countries. There were various approaches that governments adopted with a variety of possible aims and outcomes. In our research we focus on estimating the effects of Covid-19 on the Czech Republic, a small open economy, which was typical in that it had high mortality, a long lockdown and a focus on job preservation. Using three different methods – input-output, CGE and ADL, we estimate the industry-level impact of the pandemic, taking induced effects into account. We show that, besides industries that were explicitly harmed like accommodation or transportation, some industries like construction seem to be implicitly vulnerable as well. This is an important finding especially for any future policy responses. Regarding the economic policy itself, we conclude that it was successful in terms of preserving jobs, but the expenditures were probably too high to call it an efficient policy response.

Climate change is expected to alter both forest stand- and landscape-level dynamics through a change in environmental characteristics. While numerous studies have employed models to assess the ecological and/or economic impacts of such changes on forests throughout the world, there is need to further refine such analyses. In this paper, we contribute to this literature by coupling an ecological (PICUS–LANDIS II) modeling framework with an economic (computable general equilibrium) model to better account for the economic impact associated with climate-induced impacts on forest stand- and landscape-level structure and composition dynamics. Applying this framework to a case-study region of New Brunswick, Canada, we estimate that climate change will reduce softwood supply by 16%–73% and impact hardwood supply in the range of −2% to +4% by 2150. The change in wood supply is estimated to reduce the value of the softwood and hardwood forestry and logging sector output by up to 51% and 17%, respectively, by 2150. These sector-level impacts may lead to a 0.08%–0.88% reduction in annual gross domestic product by 2150. The methodological advances established in this study can be used to better inform future forest management and economic plans that aim to lessen both the ecological and economic impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Te Covid-19 pandemic triggered a massive economic policy response in all developed countries. Tere were various approaches that governments adopted with a variety of possible aims and outcomes. In our research we focus on estimating the efects of Covid-19 on the Czech Republic, a small open economy, which was typical in that it had high mortality, a long lockdown and a focus on job preservation. Using three diferent methods – input-output, CGE and ADL, we estimate the industry-level impact of the pandemic, taking induced efects into account. We show that, besides industries that were explicitly harmed like accommodation or transportation, some industries like construction seem to be implicitly vulnerable as well. Tis is an important fnding especially for any future policy responses. Regarding the economic policy itself, we conclude that it was successful in terms of preserving jobs, but the expenditures were probably too high to call it an efcient policy response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh will graduate from the LDC list by 2026. Currently, Bangladesh's exports of readymade garments (RMG) benefit from international support measures which allow preferential trade in major export destinations, such as the EU. After graduation, Bangladesh's exports, particularly RMG, will face competition from mega trading blocs, such as RCEP and CPTPP. This article employs the GTAP model to estimate the impact of Bangladesh's graduation from the LDC category and how mega FTAs are likely to affect Bangladesh's exports and potential welfare. The model also considers the scenarios of either United States or the UK or both joining the CPTPP. The model results show that Bangladesh's graduation will lead to a fall in GDP and RMG exports by 1.53% and 11.8%, respectively. The negative impact is magnified when we factor in the mega-trading blocs. Further negative impacts are observed when either United States or the UK or both join the CPTPP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a social and economic impact analysis of the Burundi political crisis (2015 to 2017) accompanied by economic sanctions. We perform our analysis with a macro–micro-simulation framework. We constructed a macro–micro analytical framework that includes a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a micro-simulation (MS) model. This framework allows us to link shocks of a more macroeconomic nature such as reductions in foreign aid, reductions in the supply of public services, on household decomposed to focus the analysis on children. Scenarios were designed and applied to capture the sanctions associated with the crisis and other manifestations of the crisis. The distributional analysis is performed with the standard indices (FGT and Gini), and we innovated by extending our social analysis on five social indicators by combining results from our CGE model and elasticities linking growth and social indicators from the literature. The macroeconomic and sectoral results show significant negative effects on GDP, skilled employment, and unemployment. The social impact analysis carried out with our framework and with observed data shows a very significant negative impact on the five social indicators selected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is lingering uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a United States (US) Trade Act enacted in 2000 and set to expire in 2025. However, the US is a traditional trading partner of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), and all SACU members predominantly access the US market through AGOA. Aim: This article assesses the welfare, macroeconomic and trade effects of the potential Southern African Customs Union-United States Free Trade Agreement (SACU-US FTA). Setting: The expiry of AGOA and the uncertainty surrounding its renewal present trade policy challenges for AGOA beneficiary countries, particularly the SACU nations. Method: The article employs the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate a scenario where SACU and the US eliminate all import taxes and export subsidies in their bilateral trade. Results: The GTAP-CGE model simulation results reveal welfare gains of US$316.47 million for SACU and US$678.01 million for the US with favourable macroeconomic and trade effects for both parties. Net trade creation is estimated at US$3.06 billion. Conclusion: The US interest in the potential SACU-US FTA rests in enhanced access to a smaller, but highly protected market where the European Union (EU) has already concluded preferential trade arrangements. Correspondingly, SACU aims for enriched access to a much larger, though less protected, market. Contribution: While most studies on FTAs focus on distributional effects using CGE and partial equilibrium models, there is limited research on the welfare, macroeconomic, and trade impacts of the potential SACU-US FTA. This article, therefore, stimulates debate and navigate domestic policies on the welfare, macroeconomic and trade implications of the prospective trade agreement.

Achieving the dual goals of improving water quality and reducing carbon emissions requires a systematic study of the combined effects of economic and environmental policies on industrial systems. A CGE-IWCR model is developed to examine the long-term evolution of industrial economic and environmental responses in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) under varying levels of carbon and water pollution taxes. The CGE-IWCE model offers several advantages: i) under the dual tax (carbon and water pollution tax) interventions, it can effectively forecast industrial CO2 and water pollution emissions driven by both macro and local factors from 2025 to 2060; ii) it quantitatively captures the interactions between various policy interventions, thereby providing guidance for comprehensive regional policy formulation. It is discovered that in the double-tax scenario, various combinations of carbon and water pollution taxes significantly impact direct carbon emissions and direct water pollution emissions, and from local consumption, imports, and exports in industrial sectors. Among them, the dual pressure of high carbon and water pollution taxes, which significantly raise production costs. In addition, increasing the carbon tax from 10 ¥/tonne to 50 ¥/tonne, the water pollution equivalent (WPE) reduction rate rises from 20.79% to 52.67% with the increase in the carbon tax from 2050 to 2060, when the water pollution tax is low. Between 2025 and 2060, the carbon tax plays a significant role in influencing the total industrial output change rate in YREB. from 2025 to 2060, the water pollution tax will play a more significant role in CO2 reduction in YREB’s industrial sector. The results will offer decision-making support for water pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in the YREB’s industrial sector, quantitatively identify the interactions between the dual taxes, and provide new insights for analyzing the impacts of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation policies.

This study examines the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the value-added trade of food and non-food sectors. This study uses a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model coupled with an extension module for the origin decomposition of value-added flows embodied in gross trade. The results suggest that by cutting down tariff and non-tariff barriers, the RCEP would significantly stimulate the economies of and gross trade among Asia–Pacific countries involved in the agreement. The potential benefits of the RCEP will be overestimated if we ignore the origin of value added and measure the benefits by gross exports. The domestic components of bilateral value-added flows between RCEP members would increase greatly, indicating an increasingly integrated value chain between RCEP members. Import taxes and non-tariff barriers for processed food, textiles and clothes, and heavy manufacturing are relatively significant in the region, so the RCEP would significantly improve their value-added exports. The domestic component of value-added exports in agricultural products and processed food from RCEP members would be increased significantly, indicating that the closely integrated food value chain boosts the food economies of RCEP members. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of the domestic economy, especially since the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the Guizhou tourism industry has welcomed development opportunities and rapid growth. Tourism has become the pillar industry of Guizhou and explores how to transform from a large tourism province to a strong tourism province. This paper aims to study the economic impact of the Guizhou tourism business environment based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Along with that, this study also analyzed the economic impact of the tourism business environment in Beijing and Shanghai. From the perspective of input and output, this paper regards the tourism business environment as a constraint for the development of tourism, and affects the output level of tourism activities. Considering the future changes in the comprehensive technical efficiency of Guizhou tourism, we use the CGE model to simulate the economic impact of the future tourism business environment. The study found that different business environments have a significant impact on Guizhou's macroeconomy and tourism-related sector economy. This article contributes to further studies analyzing the economic impact of the tourism business environment. Even the slightly deteriorating tourism business environment may have a great negative economic impact, which provides a theoretical basis for the urgency of continuously improving the tourism business environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will be important policies to constrain China's economic and social development in the future. Based on the theory of computable general equilibrium, CGE model of carbon emission was constructed in this paper to simulate the influence of different scenarios of carbon emission reduction on economic and social development. The major contribution is to subdivide the energy sector according to primary energy and secondary energy, and construct the macro SAM table and micro SAM table of 21 energy sectors in 2017 to quantitatively simulate the impact of carbon emission reduction policies on China's economy and society, and put forward some policy suggestions based on this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With massive greenhouse gas emissions causing global warming, emissions reduction and economic growth are essential objectives that must be balanced in sustainable development worldwide. The tax policy is an effective tool for environmental protection and economic regulation. Over the years, China has continuously adjusted tax policies, and the tax structure has tended to be optimized, but there is still no carbon tax. In this regard, based on the purpose of promoting the harmonious development of the environment and economy, this article builds a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with five scenarios to assess the economic, energy, and environmental effects of the consumption tax, the carbon tax as well as their combination in China during 2022 to 2035. The results show that lowering the consumption tax on non-energy-intensive commodities boosts long-term economic growth but is not conducive to emissions reduction. Additionally, a separate carbon tax promotes a cleaner energy transition, reducing emissions while harming the economy. In contrast to the stand-alone policy treatment, the combination of lower consumption taxes on non-energy-intensive commodities with the medium carbon tax rate could have a "double dividend" effect, with long-term economic growth and consistently reduced pollution emissions. In the future, it will be essential to implement the appropriate policy combination to reduce fossil energy consumption and increase clean energy share. Thus, it would help to achieve China's 2030 peak carbon target and promote green economic development effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By 2030, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is seeking to increase homeownership to 70%. This has led to a considerable investment in residential construction, with the Housing Ministry establishing a stimulus program to enhance the use of Modern Methods of Construction (MMC). These technologies offer several benefits, including cost and time reduction, improved quality and productivity, and job creation. This study quantitatively analyzes the economic impacts of MMC adaptation on the Saudi economy using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. It considers incentives to adopt MMC, its technological advancements, and the skills currently available in the Saudi labor market. Moreover, the embodied carbon emissions of MMC are calculated using the Input–Output Life Cycle Assessment Approach (IO-LCA); the detailed environmental emissions from the transportation phase, accounting for material reduction, are assessed using the COPERT model and compared to conventional construction. The results reveal an increase of 1.92% in Saudi GDP, along with improved welfare of $28.5 billion and a notable increase in the sectors related to construction. Job creation is demonstrated by an increase in the employment of unskilled and skilled labor by 2.02 and 1.5%, respectively. The paper concludes that MMC’s total embodied carbon emissions were approximately 77 million metric tonnes CO2, while its transport-related emissions are less than conventional approaches.

Recycling carbon tax revenue is a significant part of the design of a nation's carbon tax system. The impact of different recycling principles on the socio-economy and carbon emission reduction varies greatly. Under the background of China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions, this paper designed three carbon tax recycling principles based on the goal of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including recycling principles based on output ratio, export ratio, and carbon intensity. A recursively dynamic CGE model was developed in this study to evaluate the economic effects of these three carbon tax recycling principles based on tax neutrality under China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions. Carbon tax recycling measures could mitigate the economic losses caused by carbon tax, and the results could be greatly affected according to different recycling principles. The results showed that: 1 The recycling principle based on output ratio could reduce economic losses and improve households' social welfare. 2 China's carbon intensity in 2030 could be reduced by more than 65% compared with that in 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption could reach 25% using the recycling principle based on carbon intensity, but the economic loss mitigation effect of the recycling measures based on this principle was small. 3 Adopting the recycling principle based on export ratio would narrow the competitive gap between China and foreign countries, and the exports of high-carbon-intensity goods would not increase under this principle. 4 According to principles based on output ratio and export ratio, the NDC goal of non-fossil energy accounting for about 25% of primary energy consumption by 2030 could not be achieved, and only the NDC goal of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by more than 65% compared with that of 2005 could be achieved. In brief, as an essential policy tool to achieve China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions, the carbon tax should be implemented as soon as possible. At the same time, according to China's national conditions, a targeted choice of carbon tax recycling principle is needed. The role of the carbon tax in the process of achieving the goal of Nationally Determined Contributions should be fully utilized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is one of the critical and strategic trading partners of Bangladesh. The Chinese government has declared a zero-tariff facility for 97% of products imported from Bangladesh. The objective of the study is to analyze the effects of the facilitating trade policy on the trade performance of different sectors of Bangladesh. The study applies partial equilibrium SMART simulations, which are accessible in WITS, and the general equilibrium CGE model with GTAP as the methodological tools to quantify the impact of China's preferential trade policy on trade and the overall economy of Bangladesh. The results of partial equilibrium analysis show that the preferential trade policy substantially positively impacts Bangladesh's exports to the Chinese market. The results also suggest that the change in total trade under China's new preferential trade policy is around $58.99 million, with a trade creation of $ 52.16 million and a trade diversion effect of US$ 6.83 million. The CGE analysis results show that China's new trade policy will have little impact on Bangladesh's real GDP, and the effects of the policy on exports vary across different sectors. However, the overall effects suggest that Bangladesh will earn a net welfare gain due to China's new duty-free trade policy in Bangladesh. The findings of the study provide crucial policy suggestions on whether China's latest tariff facilities will substantially impact the trade and economy of Bangladesh as well as provide foundations for analyzing the effects of future bilateral trade agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to examine the effects of energy price fluctuations on China's energy-environment-economy system under different scenarios. To achieve this, a computable general equilibrium model is constructed using the 2020 macroeconomic SAM table and microeconomic SAM tables that encompass 8 energy sectors and 13 intermediate sectors. The model is utilized to analyze the impacts of various policies on variables within the energy-environment-economy system. The findings indicate that an increase in energy prices will lead to a contraction effect on multiple industrial sectors and the overall macroeconomy. Higher energy prices result in elevated prices, reduced output, decreased investment, and decreased consumer spending across most industrial sectors, negatively affecting the macroeconomy. However, government regulation of secondary energy prices can mitigate the influence of primary energy prices on the national economy. Such regulation hinders the transmission of primary energy price fluctuations to downstream industrial chains, thereby alleviating its impact on different sectors and the macroeconomy to varying extents. In order to mitigate the adverse effects of energy price fluctuations, it is crucial to reduce energy consumption while promoting economic growth and enhancing resident welfare. This paper presents relevant measures and suggestions to address these challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations has promoted and supported the UNCTAD Creative Economy Programme since 2004 to help countries around the world understand how to promote economic development through creativity in industries. This research article aims to determine whether the creative economy will be the major engine to accelerate Thailand's economic development in the coming decade or not, and what the major creative economy sectors are that must be prioritized or initiated and focused on. The data implemented in this research cover 2011–2018, which consist of creative economy sector income, the IO table, and the SAM table. The methodology utilized in this research was the ML model, the GREY model for predicting the growth rate of income from the major creative economy sectors contribute to Thailand's economy between 2019–2025, and the CGE model. The study's empirical findings show that the significant sectoral creative economy consists of fashion, advertising, Thai food, and cultural tourism, which need to be given more stimulus. Furthermore, the economies of Chiang Mai, and Thailand as a whole, would eventually be high-income economies if creative economy sectors were to be promoted and continuously supported by efficient policies. the economic growth of Thailand and Chiang Mai would eventually become high income whenever these economies allow creative economy sectors to be promoted or supported by efficient policies continuously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the impact of a liberal migration policy that increases labour quotas by 5% on wages and income of residents, native migrants, and new migrants. The article focuses on the impact of migration in 21 areas, with particular attention given to Slovakia and Germany. It is based on data collected from the Global Trade Analysis Project database and the experimental design by Walmsley, Ahmed, and Parsons, with adjustments to capture current global migration flows. The findings indicate that the immigration of new unskilled workers negatively impacts the real wages of unskilled residents, decreasing them by almost 3%, while the arrival of skilled workers increases them by 0.73%. Similarly, the real wages of skilled residents decrease by 2.62% due to the arrival of new skilled migrants, while unskilled migration results in its increase by 0.53%. These findings can aid policymakers in developing policies that maximize the benefits of migration. This research provides new insights into the wage effects of migration in different areas, focusing on Germany and Slovakia.

This study aimed to examine the prospects of various modelling tools in building complex models of regional tourism systems. It surveyed the international experience in forecasting tourist demands and modelling the tourism industry. It found that the hybrid approach – combining simulation modelling with econometric models to forecast tourist demands and deep learning models to process data from various sources – seems to be the most promising one. Simulation modelling is divided into two parts: system dynamics as a model of domestic tourism in terms of assessing state support’s impact on the development of tourist infrastructure and agent-based modelling, which is used to form tourists’ profiles and assess their needs as accurately as possible. Then, a more detailed study of the possibilities of using CGE models in the framework of integrated modelling of the tourism system, with an emphasis on sustainable development, was proposed. To reduce the level of uncertainty typical in a socio-economic system, integration into the CGE model of production functions was proposed. Thus, the potential applicability of using production functions for modelling tourism processes from the point of view of the state of the economy in a pandemic s being investigated. This study classified the production functions and adopted the function of constant elasticity of substitution to assess the income gained from the tourist products consumed by domestic tourists. Based on synthetic data, the possible income from tourist products were calculated using the income distribution in four groups of profitability. We performed the calculation using written code in the statistical programming language R. The formula we used considered the annual income of population groups, spending on rental housing and the consumer basket, as well as the elasticity of consumption of tourist services.

ObjectiveTo quantitatively assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on public health, as well as its economic and social consequences in major economies, which is an international public health concern. The objective is to provide a scientific basis for policy interventions.Subject and methodsThis study utilizes a multi-country, multi-sector CGE-COVID-19 model to analyze the repercussions of the pandemic in 2022. The re-search focuses on quantifying the effects of COVID-19 on the macroeconomy and various industry sectors within six economies: the United States, China, the EU, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea.ResultsThe COVID-19 pandemic shock had the most significant impact on China and the EU, followed by notable effects observed in the United States and the United Kingdom. In contrast, South Korea and Japan experienced relatively minimal effects. The reduction in output caused by the pandemic has affected major economies in multiple sectors, including real industries such as forestry and fisheries, and the services such as hotels and restaurants.ConclusionThe overall negative macroeconomic impact of the epidemic on major economies has been significant. Strategic interventions encompassing initiatives like augmenting capital supply, diminishing corporate taxes and fees, offering individual subsidies, and nurturing international cooperation held the potential to mitigate the detrimental economic consequences and enhance the global-economic amid the pan-demic. Consequently, this study contributes to the advancement of global anti-epidemic policies targeting economic recovery. Moreover, using the CGE-COVID-19 model has enriched the exploration of general equilibrium models in PHEIC events.

Water resources are indispensable for human existence and agricultural irrigation, particularly in countries where the agricultural sector occupies a substantial proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP). Consequently, improving agricultural water-use efficiency has become a critical strategic choice. Egypt is one of the countries in the world that falls below the water poverty line, and the water scarcity in Egypt has been exacerbated over the last several years. Sustainable growth and food security in Egypt necessitate more efficient use of the country's water resources, particularly in the irrigation of crops and livestock. Therefore, this study analyzed the potential economic and social impacts of irrigation infrastructure development on Egypt's economic growth. Furthermore, it sought to ascertain whether investments directed toward irrigation modernization projects are sufficient to alleviate Egypt's water crisis, an essential question for Egyptian policymakers. The computable general equilibrium model was employed on the basis of a social accounting matrix for the Egyptian economy in its latest edition for the base year 2015. This study employed the latest version of the Agriculture Investment for Development Analyzer, developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute, which provided a more holistic account of the agricultural sector and a high diversity of population details. The results show that the effects of investments in irrigation are favorable for the economy but are relatively modest. Furthermore, the increase in investments in irrigation improves production in most sectors. Moreover, the GDP is anticipated to increase by 0.05% by 2030. In conclusion, adopting the modernization process for irrigation will enable Egypt to observe the success of the modernization program under various scenarios. Indeed, efforts to achieve irrigation modernization are insufficient heretofore. Finally, this study recommends that Egyptian policymakers invest more in developing irrigation infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand for high-quality white oak sawlogs in Kentucky has been increasing for decades. Concurrently, Kentucky is witnessing ecological shifts in the historically white oak-dominated forests, mirroring the structural changes in oak forests in the eastern US. This demand–supply dissonance presents a growing concern among stakeholders on the sustainability of white oak and its associated economic implications. In this context, the objective of this study was to assess the potential economic impacts of the projected white oak timber supply following an overall increased supply of white oak sawlogs but reduced supply of high-quality white oak sawlogs in Kentucky. Results generated from a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model indicate a cumulative present-value GDP reduction of USD 3.66 billion, a USD 0.71 billion decline in consumer welfare, and other sectoral contractions over 40 years (2018–2058). These results can be used to advocate for more proactive forest management practices to stabilize a sustained supply of high-quality white oak timber in Kentucky and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What exactly is the contribution of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP)? This is a subject of much debate. There are concerns about the possible effects on the macroeconomy. Most previous studies have tried to answer this question. In order to answer this question quantitatively, it is necessary to separate the effect of SNWTP from many influencing factors. A computable general equilibrium model (SICGE) was built to estimate the economic effect of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project on Beijing. This CGE model was modified by joining the subdivided water substitution module, the total water constraints module, and the water-capital substitution module. Two scenarios were set: one with SNWTP and one without SNWTP. The what-if scenario (without SNWTP) indicates that the water reduction poses a direct threat to economic growth. Employment, capital, and GDP are lower, largely due to water shortages suffered by many industries by comparative analysis with or without SNWTP. The water utilization for the water-intensive industry will decrease the most, and its output will also decrease the most. Without SNWTP, groundwater extraction will increase, which suggests that SNWTP water will tentatively replace groundwater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article estimates the economic impacts of wildfire damage on Korea's regional economies, developing an integrated disaster‐economic system for Korea. The system is composed of four modules: an interregional computable general equilibrium (ICGE) model for the eastern mountain area (EMA) and the rest of Korea, a Bayesian wildfire model, a transportation demand model, and a tourist expenditure model. The model has a hierarchical structure, with the ICGE model serving as a core module to link to three other modules. In the impact analysis of a wildfire, three external shocks are injected into the ICGE model: (1) the wildfire damaged area derived from the Bayesian wildfire model, (2) changes in travel times among cities and counties derived from the transportation demand model, and (3) variations in visitors' expenditures derived from the tourist expenditure model. The simulation shows that the gross regional product (GRP) of the EMA would decrease by 0.25% to 0.55% without climate change and by 0.51%–1.23% with climate change. This article contributes to the development of quantitative linkages between macro and micro spatial models in a bottom‐up system for the impact analysis of disasters, integrating a regional economic model with a place‐based disaster model and the demands of tourism and transportation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation. Design/methodology/approach – A systematic review is conducted to select, classify and analyze relevant studies from two databases of Web of Science and Scopus. Findings – Totally, 170 articles based on selected keywords were found from both databases, where 56 articles were duplicates. The authors further excluded 17 articles owing to preliminary exclusion criteria. Hence, 97 papers were selected for full-text review and more detailed assessment. Only a few of the studies explicitly have addressed the role of autonomous adaptation embodied in the CGE models. Over one-third of the studies have focused on planned adaptation without explicitly mentioning autonomous adaptation. Agriculture was the most addressed sector, and country-level models are the most adopted. Only one article has focused on South America. Research limitations/implications – The review suggests that autonomous adaptation embodied in CGE models was not well addressed in the literature. As the limited studies have shown that autonomous adaptation can dramatically mitigate direct climate change impacts, further studies are needed to examine the importance of the autonomous adaptation for better understanding of climate change impacts. Furthermore, CGE models can provide a joint assessment considering both mitigation and adaptation strategies and management measures as such models have also been widely used to address effects of mitigation measures in the literature. Originality/value – The studies on climate change adaptation based on CGE models have been systematically reviewed, and state-of-the-art knowledge and research gaps have been identified.

Water resource (WR) is a complex and interrelated system, which integrates human development and environment. Water price research is gradually carried out under the background of resource economy research, which is an important part of natural resource price research. The main goal of the water price mechanism is to solve the problem of water resource allocation under the pressure of water supply and demand and realize the sustainable development of agricultural economy (AE). Faced with the dual pressure of rising water demand and declining water supply, many regions have begun to reform the water price mechanism and use the CGE model for scientific and reasonable resource allocation. To this end, this paper analyzed the drawbacks and the factors of WR pricing mechanism and used the CGE (Computable General Equilibrium for short here) model to study the upper limit of the pricing of resources, and then analyzed the problems of WR CGE model in agriculture, and finally optimized the problems. According to the experimental analysis, the pricing mechanism of WR under the CGE model can reasonably allocate resources, reduce water demand and promote the development of AE.

This paper develops a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with specific features for Greece and the non-EU Rest of the World (RoW). The novelty of this work stems from the lack of energy-focused CGE models for Greece in the current literature. The study's objective is to determine how the Greek economy would react if a 30% import tariff and a quota of 67% on energy imports and 35% on remaining imports were implemented. Furthermore, if quotas and tariffs are in force, the Greek economy will initiate countermeasures by increasing investment in renewable energies through substitution and a 35% subsidy. To quantify this, the 2015 Input-Output (I-O) table for Greece and the non-EU RoW was used. To offer a better understanding, the 36 production sectors have been divided into Agriculture, Energy, Manufacturing, and Services. The quota scenario resulted in a reduction in all sectors in domestic production in terms of output and domestic uses, with some sectors experiencing around a 30% reduction. Renewable energy investments, on the other hand, have proven to be effective for domestic production, increasing output and domestic uses by (6.561%) and (7.886%), respectively. In terms of import tariffs, prices have increased, resulting in a significant decrease in household consumption that exceeds 30% in several sectors. Finally, policy recommendations for addressing these trade barriers and Greece's renewable energy opportunities are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural sectors worldwide are under direct threat from climate change conditions. In Iran, agricultural production has decreased due to droughts originating in an increase in annual maximum temperatures—with the corresponding increase in crop respiration and evapotranspiration—and a decrease in accumulated precipitation. Based on a static computable general equilibrium approach, this paper reports implication for the Iranian economy from the effects of climate change on agriculture––as modeled through three scenarios relying on assumptions about the magnitude of continued reduction in total agricultural production. Reductions of 6%, 12%, and 18% in total agricultural production reasonably cover the range of impacts that climate change is expected to impose on the Iranian agricultural sector––under the assumption that no behavioral adaptations or policy interventions are in place. Our simulations suggest that effects on the Iranian economy imply a reduction in GDP ranging between 3.7 and 6.3%. In addition, 5–17% of labor moves away from the agriculture sector––this labor relocation occurs due to declining agriculture incomes. Findings illustrate that climate change will reduce households' consumption and income in all economic sectors, particularly among rural households. We suggest that policies in Iran should focus on improving cultivation methods to save water resources and alleviate the expected effects of climate change. The current study's outcomes are helpful for policymakers, especially in countries with water scarcity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency improvement is expected to reduce energy consumption. However, actual energy savings can be lower than anticipated, called rebound effects. This article reviews previous studies that have used computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to study the rebound effects caused by energy efficiency improvements in the recent two decades until 2021. A systematic review approach has been adopted to select the focused studies, and keywords co-occurrence analysis has been used to explore the characteristics of the selected studies. We reported our findings on specific aspects of these CGE studies, including geographic location, time scale, and methodological features; how an energy efficiency improvement is introduced; and the levels of rebound effects estimated by these studies. These findings suggest specific potential research gaps. For example, few CGE studies have focused on Russia, India, and Africa; no production functional forms other than constant elasticity of substitution (CES) have been used in these CGE studies; and little attention has been paid to negative rebound effects in the short run and the cases of joint implementation of energy efficiency improvement and other policy measures that drive energy cost higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of carbon taxes has been subject to important debates on the sustainable development pathway. As an archipelagic country that is vulnerable to climate change, the impact of implementing this policy instrument is still understudied in the literature. This study examines the effect of carbon tax and recycling scenarios on the Indonesian economy by employing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE). The result revealed that carbon tax revenue recycling combined with household transfer and investment yielded better GDP and employment rate than a household transfer only in the medium and long terms. Furthermore, the carbon tax revenue recycling on household transfer and renewable energy investment created energy intensity reductions. This study recommends implementing the tax by prioritizing specific sectors, setting appropriate tax levels, applying a transitional policy, and diversifying the investment strategy to align with the sustainable development pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]