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Oropharyngeal dysphagia (OD) is a high impact morbidity in head-and-neck cancer (HNC) patients. A wide variety of instruments are developed to screen for affective symptoms and OD. The current paper aims to systematically review and appraise the literature to obtain insight into the prevalence, strength, and causal direction of the relationship between affective symptoms and OD in HNC patients. This review was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA statement. A systematic search of the literature was performed using PubMed, PsycINFO, Cochrane, and Embase. All available publications reporting on the relationship between affective conditions and swallowing function in HNC patients were included. Conference papers, tutorials, reviews, and studies with less than 5 patients were excluded. Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria. The level of evidence and methodological quality were assessed using the ABC-rating scale and QualSyst critical appraisal tool. Eleven studies reported a positive relationship between affective symptoms and OD. The findings of this paper highlight the importance of affective symptom screening in dysphagic HNC patients as clinically relevant affective symptoms and OD seems to be prevalent and coincident in this population. Considering the impact of affective symptoms and OD on patients' daily life, early detection and an integrated interdisciplinary approach are recommended. However, due to the heterogeneity of study designs, outcomes, and outcome measures, the generalization of study results is limited.

Oropharyngeal dysphagia (OD) is a high impact morbidity in head-and-neck cancer (HNC) patients. A wide variety of instruments are developed to screen for affective symptoms and OD. The current paper aims to systematically review and appraise the literature to obtain insight into the prevalence, strength, and causal direction of the relationship between affective symptoms and OD in HNC patients. This review was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA statement. A systematic search of the literature was performed using PubMed, PsycINFO, Cochrane, and Embase. All available publications reporting on the relationship between affective conditions and swallowing function in HNC patients were included. Conference papers, tutorials, reviews, and studies with less than 5 patients were excluded. Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria. The level of evidence and methodological quality were assessed using the ABC-rating scale and QualSyst critical appraisal tool. Eleven studies reported a positive relationship between affective symptoms and OD. The findings of this paper highlight the importance of affective symptom screening in dysphagic HNC patients as clinically relevant affective symptoms and OD seems to be prevalent and coincident in this population. Considering the impact of affective symptoms and OD on patients’ daily life, early detection and an integrated interdisciplinary approach are recommended. However, due to the heterogeneity of study designs, outcomes, and outcome measures, the generalization of study results is limited.

To take cancer survivorship research to the next level, it’s important to gain insight in trajectories of changing patient-reported outcomes and impaired recovery after cancer. This is needed as the number of survivors is increasing and a large proportion is confronted with changing health after treatment. Mechanistic research can facilitate the development of personalized risk-stratified follow-up care and tailored interventions to promote healthy cancer survivorship. We describe how these trajectories can be studied by taking the recently extended Dutch population-based Patient Reported Outcomes Following Initial treatment and Long term Evaluation of Survivorship (PROFILES) registry as an example. PROFILES combines longitudinal assessment of patient-reported outcomes with novel, ambulatory and objective measures (eg, activity trackers, blood draws, hair samples, online food diaries, online cognitive tests, weighing scales, online symptoms assessment), and cancer registry and pharmacy databases. Furthermore, we discuss methods to optimize the use of a multidomain data collection–like return of individual results to participants, which may improve not only patient empowerment but also long-term cohort retention. Also, advanced statistical methods are needed to handle high-dimensional longitudinal data (with missing values) and provide insight into trajectories of changing patient-reported outcomes after cancer. Our coded data can be used by academic researchers around the world. Registries like PROFILES, which go beyond boundaries of disciplines and institutions, will contribute to better predictions of who will experience changes and why. This is needed to prevent and mitigate long-term and late effects of cancer treatment and to identify new interventions to promote health.

The aim of this study is to analyze, evaluate and validate the NSE (National Student Enquiry) as a service quality measure helping both higher education institutions (HEIs) and students in their decision making. Every year the Dutch foundation ‘Studiekeuze123’ sends out a survey (the NSE) to collect data on service quality regarding education at HEIs in the Netherlands. We used the 2019 NSE-data from the only e-learning university in the Netherlands, the Open Universiteit (OUNL), containing a sample of 1287 students. PLS-SEM was used to analyze a conceptual model in order to understand the service quality factors that promote students’ level of satisfaction and willingness to recommend the HEI. Overall, the findings reveal that the quality of the NSE is sufficient to be used for performance analysis. Nine out of twelve service components taken into account for the OUNL are found statistically significant affecting students’ satisfaction and willingness to recommend. The results help HEIs promoting and managing students’ perceptions of the quality of education and support students in their decision making process. Since many HEIs had to make a transition from onsite to online education within a short period of time, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, service quality became a major concern for HEIs. As online learning systems are expected to stay, analyzing the service quality of the OUNL as a reputed online HEI can help other HEIs getting their online learning systems on track.

Purpose Vincristine (VCR) is a chemotherapeutic agent used in the treatment of pediatric oncology patients, but its main toxicity is VCR‐induced peripheral neuropathy (VIPN). However, whether VIPN has an effect on health‐related quality of life (HR‐QoL) in children during treatment is unknown. Therefore, the aim of our study was to investigate the association between VIPN and HR‐QoL in children starting treatment for cancer. Methods Measurements of VIPN were performed using two tools: Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) and pediatric‐modified Total Neuropathy Score (ped‐mTNS). Assessment of HR‐QoL was done with self‐ and proxy assessment of the Cancer and Generic module of the Pediatric Cancer Quality of Life Inventory™ (PedsQL). Results In total, N = 86 children were included. HR‐QoL of children with VIPN (n = 67%, 76%) was significantly lower in comparison with children without VIPN: estimated Total score of PedsQL Generic (proxy) 84.57; β = −8.96 and 95% confidence interval (CI) −14.48 to −3.43; p = 0.002, estimated PedsQL Generic Total score (self‐reported): 85.16, β = −8.38 (95% CI: −13.76 to −3.00); p = 0.003. Similar results were found in the Pain and Hurt domain of the PedsQL Cancer (pain: estimated score [proxy]: 85.28, β = −9.94 [95%CI: −16.44 to −3.45], p = 0.003; hurt: estimated score [self‐report] 97.57, β = −19.15 [95%CI: −26.82 to −11.48], p, This article reports on the association between vincristine‐induced peripheral neuropathy and health‐related quality of life in pediatric oncology patients. Our data show that health‐related quality of life is significantly lower in children who experience vincristine‐induced peripheral neuropathy compared to pediatric oncology patients without vincristine‐induced peripheral neuropathy.

Simple SummaryAdolescents and young adults (AYA), aged 18-39 years at first cancer diagnosis, are recognized as a distinct population within the oncology community due to the unique challenges they encounter including recognition, diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring of their disease. It is imperative for advances in the field of AYA oncology to pool data sources (patient-reported outcomes, clinical, treatment, genetic, and biological data) across institutions and countries and create large cohorts that include the full range of AYA ages and diagnoses to be able to address the many pressing questions that remain unanswered in this vulnerable population. The Dutch COMPRAYA study aims to examine the incidence, risk factors, and mechanisms of impaired health outcomes (short- and long-term medical and psychosocial effects) over time among AYA cancer patients. The overarching aim is to provide a research infrastructure for (future) data analyses and observational retrospective/prospective ancillary studies and to expand data collection to other countries.Adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer patients suffer from delay in diagnosis, and lack of centralized cancer care, age-adjusted expertise, and follow-up care. This group presents with a unique spectrum of cancers, distinct tumor biology, cancer risk factors, developmental challenges, and treatment regimens that differ from children and older adults. It is imperative for advances in the field of AYA oncology to pool data sources across institutions and create large cohorts to address the many pressing questions that remain unanswered in this vulnerable population. We will create a nationwide infrastructure (COMPRAYA) for research into the incidence, predictive/prognostic markers, and underlying mechanisms of medical and psychosocial outcomes for AYA between 18-39 years diagnosed with cancer. A prospective, observational cohort of (n = 4000), will be established. Patients will be asked to (1) complete patient-reported outcome measures; (2) donate a blood, hair, and stool samples (to obtain biochemical, hormonal, and inflammation parameters, and germline DNA); (3) give consent for use of routinely archived tumor tissue and clinical data extraction from medical records and registries; (4) have a clinic visit to assess vital parameters. Systematic and comprehensive collection of patient and tumor characteristics of AYA will support the development of evidence-based AYA care programs and guidelines.

Accelerating time to impact is a serious and important challenge for today's organizations. This paper combines the literatures of project acceleration and benefit management to inquire into the possibilities of accelerating time to impact. Specifically, it explores a practitioner-driven Danish initiative targeted at increasing the speed at which project benefits are attained, and it analyzes why some projects were able to achieve benefits faster than others. The initiative functions as a major social experiment, where the same project methodology was implemented in several Danish project-based organizations. We analyze five of these organizations. We identified reasons for the differences and grouped them in a conceptual model: the ‘house of time to impact’ with three areas: valuing speed, owning speed and entraining speed in the organization. The paper's contribution is the bridge between the literatures on benefit and time management, bringing two pressing issues together. The contribution to practice lies in the considerations and stories of other organizations attempting to reconcile the increasing need for effectiveness.

Information on soil erosion and related sedimentation processes are very important for natural resource management and sustainable farming. Plenty of models are available for studying soil erosion but only a few are suitable for dynamic soil erosion assessments at the field-scale. To date, there are no field-scale dynamic models available considering complex agricultural systems for the simulation of soil erosion. We conducted a review of 51 different models evaluated based on their representation of the processes of soil erosion by water. Secondly, we consider their suitability for assessing soil erosion for more complex field designs, such as patch cropping, strip cropping and agroforestry (alley-cropping systems) and other land management practices. Several models allow daily soil erosion assessments at the sub-field scale, such as EPIC, PERFECT, GUEST, EPM, TCRP, SLEMSA, APSIM, RillGrow, WaNuLCAS, SCUAF, and CREAMS. However, further model development is needed with respect to the interaction of components, i.e., rainfall intensity, overland flow, crop cover, and their scaling limitations. A particular shortcoming of most of the existing field scale models is their one-dimensional nature. We further suggest that platforms with modular structure, such as SIMPLACE and APSIM, offer the possibility to integrate soil erosion as a separate module/component and link to GIS capabilities, and are more flexible to simulate fluxes of matter in the 2D/3D dimensions. Since models operating at daily scales often do not consider a horizontal transfer of matter, such modeling platforms can link erosion components with other environmental components to provide robust estimations of the three-dimensional fluxes and sedimentation processes occurring during soil erosion events.

IntroductionNon-communicable diseases (NCDs) are associated with lower health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, knowledge about those diseases and predictors with a greater impact on patients’ HRQoL as well as knowledge on the complex relationship between HRQoL and comorbidities is lacking. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of NCDs on patients’ HRQoL, with a focus on multimorbidity and socioeconomic status.Methods and analysisA primary care-based cross-sectional study is conducted in Flanders (Belgium). Study participants (≥18 years) are medically diagnosed with at least one of the following diseases: cardiometabolic disorders, mental disorders and musculoskeletal disorders. A minimum of 50 general practitioners will participate to recruit participants (convenient sample) and a total of 531 patients will be enrolled (voluntary response sample). Each participant will complete a paper-based questionnaire to gather research outcomes. Statistical analyses will be performed using multiple linear regression models with HRQoL as main outcome parameter, adjusted for possible confounders. This study will generate new evidence on the key predictors of HRQoL in patients with NCDs, and particularly provide new insights in multimorbidity to improve the quality of care in primary care, to support patients’ self-management and to allocate resources more effectively.Ethics and disseminationThe study has been approved by the Ethical Committee of Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium (reference number: B670201939629) prior to the beginning of the recruitment. Study results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.

PurposeThe purpose of this study aims to examine sports tourism through a conceptual lens. The study offers a deep assessment of the general structure and purpose of sports tourism. Thus, the authors aim to determine the contributions of scientific studies in the field of sports tourism to sports tourism literature.Design/methodology/approachA qualitative research design was created and data collected using document analysis. The research articles were categorized and analyzed according to their objectives, journals of publication, keywords, application areas, research methods used, data collection techniques and findingsFindingsIt was been determined that the research articles in the field of sports tourism contributed significantly to the sports tourism literature and to the cumulative progress of the field.Research limitations/implicationsThe implications of this study is that only publications in the field of sports tourism (in the tourism category) indexed in the Web of Science between 2014 and 2018 were examined.Practical implicationsStudies to be carried out in the field of sports tourism should be seen as continuations, rather than repetitions, of one another. Thus, more information about the field of sports tourism is needed to better articulate the structure of the field for the benefit of future researchers.Social implicationsThere is a need for studies to contribute to the development of sports tourism in the literature. This study aims to take a step in this direction. With the increase of activities to be carried out in both the field and practice of sports tourism, a better relationship will be established between sports, local people and relevant stakeholders.Originality/valueMore theoretical studies in this field (Gibson, 1998a; Soedjatmiko, 2015) suggest that the field of sports tourism can be further developed. In light of this call, the present study will provide an overview of sports tourism research as a whole, thus contributing to future research by its own merits. It will guide the authors to determine how activities in the field of sports tourism have grown and how they are progressing

The Swallowing Quality of Life questionnaire (SWAL-QOL) is widely used clinically and in research to evaluate quality of life related to swallowing difficulties. It has been described as a valid and reliable tool, but was developed and tested using classic test theory. This study describes the reliability and validity of the SWAL-QOL using item response theory (IRT; Rasch analysis). SWAL-QOL data were gathered from 507 participants at risk of oropharyngeal dysphagia (OD) across four European countries. OD was confirmed in 75.7% of participants via videofluoroscopy and/or fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation, or a clinical diagnosis based on meeting selected criteria. Patients with esophageal dysphagia were excluded. Data were analysed using Rasch analysis. Item and person reliability was good for all the items combined. However, person reliability was poor for 8 subscales and item reliability was poor for one subscale. Eight subscales exhibited poor person separation and two exhibited poor item separation. Overall item and person fit statistics were acceptable. However, at an individual item fit level results indicated unpredictable item responses for 28 items, and item redundancy for 10 items. The item-person dimensionality map confirmed these findings. Results from the overall Rasch model fit and Principal Component Analysis were suggestive of a second dimension. For all the items combined, none of the item categories were 'category', 'threshold' or 'step' disordered; however, all subscales demonstrated category disordered functioning. Findings suggest an urgent need to further investigate the underlying structure of the SWAL-QOL and its psychometric characteristics using IRT.

Purpose While systems theory explicitly considers interactions as part of a system’s complexity, supply chain complexity (SCC) is mostly conceptualized and measured as a linear summation of several aspects. The purpose of this paper is to challenge the general understanding by explicitly investigating interactions between and across different types (detail and dynamic) and levels (plant, supply chain, environment) of SCC. Design/methodology/approach An exploratory multiple case study methodology is adopted drawing on in-depth semi-structured interviews with respondents from eight manufacturing plants in the food processing industry. Findings On the one hand, it is found that different types add and increase overall SCC. On the other hand, the study also shows the opposite: interactions between detail and dynamic complexity can reduce the overall SCC experienced. Additionally, the findings highlight the specific food processing characteristics such as the variability of quality and quantity of raw materials that underlie interactions between types and levels of SCC. Originality/value This study adds to theory by empirically showing that interactions across and between types and levels do not automatically increase, but might also reduce SCC. As such, the findings contribute new detail to the concept of SCC: aspects of complexity do not necessarily add up linearly. Additionally, this study is one of the first to demonstrate how specific contextual aspects from the food processing industry relate to SCC.

Purpose The conceptualization of flexibility in organizations historically emerged from three views which relate to economic, to organizational and to manufacturing perspectives. Despite the growing number of publications about supply chain flexibility in the area of supply chain management, there is a lack of consensus on how to define and to conceptualize supply chain flexibility from a management point of view. The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive overview of the literature on the supply chain flexibility perspective and contributes to our understanding of the current state of research and its future development. Design/methodology/approach The research methodology used is the systematic literature review. In total 92 articles were selected from databases of well-known journal publishers in the field of economics, business studies and management sciences as well as grey literature to cover the topic of supply chain flexibility. Findings A limited number of studies in the field of supply chain flexibility apply theories and define the term supply chain flexibility. Instead they focus on a particular part or dimension of the supply chain. Based on the analysis, a distinction is made between flexibility in the supply chain and supply chain flexibility. Based on the function and characteristics of the supply chain, the authors selected 30 flexibility dimensions that cover supply chain flexibility by concentrating on the different business areas involved. Research limitations/implications The results support researchers and practitioners by identifying relevant trends and gaps in the field of supply chain flexibility. Originality/value The authors review the dimensions and aspects of supply chain flexibility that are currently taken into account in the literature. In this way, the authors provide an overarching perspective on the flexibility literature relating to supply chains.

International audience; We study the relationship between fracture distribution and permeability in weathered peridotites exposed to tropical climate using the data from the Koniambo massif (New Caledonia, South Pacific). The vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivity is obtained from packer tests performed on four 200-m-deep boreholes. A positive correlation is observed between the cumulated width of weathered fractures and the hydraulic conductivity in a given depth-interval. Therefore, a two-scale model of weathered fractures is developed with small fractures (5 m radius) deduced from outcrop data and large fractures (50 m radius) from a remote sensing analysis. Hydraulic conductivity is 10(-5) m/s in the fractures and 10(-8) m/s in the matrix. Permeability fields are computed for the synthetic fractures network models, either from flow along the three axes of a periodic cube or from injection through a slit. Then, results are compared to packer tests and show that when both sets of large and small fractures are included, the proposed model reproduces reasonably in situ measured data. Analytical formulae are proposed for computing an approximate permeability from field data. The decrease of hydraulic conductivity with depth is also discussed. We show that the proposed model for peridotites aquifers is similar to the one currently admitted for granitic rock aquifers. It relies on weathering of a pre-existing serpentine-bearing fractures network which controls permeability in the weathering profile itself, but also deeper in the fresh and non-weathered rock. The proposed conceptual model allows deriving quantitative estimate of hydraulic conductivity from field data which are of primary interest for managing the groundwater resource of peridotite aquifers, particularly where mining operations impact groundwater flow.

Background The resource group method provides a structure to facilitate patients’ empowerment and recovery processes, and to systematically engage significant others in treatment and care. A patient chooses members of a resource group (RG) that will work together on fulfilling patients’ recovery plan. By adopting shared decision-making processes and stimulating collaboration of different support systems, a broad and continuous support of patients’ chosen goals and wishes is preserved and problem solving and communication skills of the RG members are addressed. Objective The objectives of this study are (1) to establish the effectiveness of the RG method in increasing empowerment in patients with severe mental illnesses (SMI) in the Netherlands; (2) to investigate the cost-effectiveness and cost utility of the RG method; and (3) to qualitatively explore its dynamics and processes. Methods/design This multisite randomized controlled trial will compare the effects of the RG-method integrated in Flexible Assertive Community Treatment (FACT) (90 patients) with those of standard FACT (90 patients). Baseline assessments and 9-month and 18-month follow-up assessments will be conducted in face-to-face home visits. The primary outcome measure, empowerment, will be assessed using the Netherlands Empowerment List (NEL). The secondary outcomes will be quality of life (MANSA); personal, community and clinical recovery (I.ROC); general, social and community functioning (WHODAS 2.0); general psychopathological signs and symptoms (BSI-18); and societal costs (TiC-P). An economic evaluation of the cost-effectiveness and cost utility of the RG method will also be conducted. A qualitative multiple case-study will be added to collect patients’, RG members’ and professionals’ perspectives by in-depth interviews, observations and focus groups. Discussion This trial will be the first to study the effects of the RG method on empowerment in patients with SMI. By combining clinical-effectiveness data with an economic evaluation and in-depth qualitative information from primary stakeholders, it will provide a detailed overview of the RG method as a mean of improving care for patients with SMI. Trial registration The study has been registered in the Dutch Trial Register, identifier: NTR6737, September 2017.

BACKGROUND: It is well known that sports participation is positively associated with psychosocial health in children, but details about this association over time are lacking. This study aimed to explore longitudinal associations between several characteristics of sports participation and three aspects of psychosocial health (internalizing problems, externalizing problems and prosocial behaviour) in Dutch children aged 10-12 years.METHODS: Data from 695 fourth-grade primary school children were included at baseline; 10-13 months later, 487 children (response rate 70.1%) were retained. At both time points, children reported on their sports participation (Move and Sports Monitor Questionnaire - Youth Aged 8-12 Years) and psychosocial health (Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire). Longitudinal associations between several characteristics of sports participation and the three aspects of psychosocial health were analysed using linear mixed models, both clustering the repeated measures within children and clustering the children within schools. In addition to crude analyses, analyses were performed adjusting for sex, age, BMI, household composition, SES and frequency of sports participation.RESULTS: Membership in a sports club, moderate or high frequency of sports participation, performing team sports, performing outdoor sports, performing contact sports and involvement in competition were longitudinally associated with fewer internalizing problems. The longitudinal association of higher frequency of sports participation with fewer internalizing problems was stronger as a child's BMI increased. The association of performing team sports with fewer internalizing problems was only observed for boys. Membership in a sports club and moderate or high frequency of sports participation were also longitudinally associated with better prosocial behaviour. These associations with prosocial behaviour were stronger for girls. None of the characteristics of sports participation examined were longitudinally associated with externalizing problems.CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that from a longitudinal perspective, fewer internalizing problems and better prosocial behaviour were seen in children who were active in sports. Fewer internalizing problems were also associated with the kind of sports participation; for example, with performing outdoor sports. No associations were found for externalizing problems. Future research should preferably take the form of an intervention to investigate whether the observed statistical associations are of a causal nature.

Employee stock-ownership plans (ESOPs) offered by multinational enterprises (MNEs) present an attractive investment for employees. Puzzlingly, participation rates are often low, raising the question what drives ESOP participation on a global scale. Grounded in the knowledge-based view of expatriate research, we build on the notion of expatriates as implicit knowledge transferors within MNEs. We hypothesize a positive effect of expatriate ESOP participation on subsidiary-employee ESOP participation, which is even higher when a subsidiary-employee’s distance toward the program and the firm is greater. Empirical results confirm our hypotheses suggesting that expatriates can be a mechanism to bridge the distance within MNEs.

Background: Differences in health-related quality of life in coronary artery disease patients and associated factors between patients of central and western European descent are rarely investigated. We aim to test differences between Dutch and Slovak health-related quality of life, whether nationality predicted health-related quality of life and if standardised beta weights of health-related quality of life determinants differ across countries. Design: An observational multicentre study at university cardiac centres in the Netherlands and Slovakia. Methods: In 226 coronary artery disease patients, health-related quality of life was measured by the Short Form Health Survey 36, anxiety and depression were measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and type D personality was assessed with the 14-item Type D Scale. Multivariate analysis was used to explore the effect of patient characteristics on the physical and mental component summaries. Estimates of each predictor’s beta value of the physical and mental component summaries in the Slovak and Dutch patient sample were separately calculated using the Cummings criterion for comparison of two independent betas. Results: Stronger predictors of physical health-related quality of life in Slovak patients were educational level, current smoking, poor functional status, history of diabetes and amount of social support. In Dutch patients, only more symptoms of depression was a stronger predictor ( PConclusion: Descent and differences between both populations in determinants of health-related quality of life should be considered while planning care, follow-up, health education and rehabilitation.

In this study, a methodology has been suggested to monitor patient dissatisfaction in hospitals. The proposed methodology uses the service quality (SERVQUAL) scale and statistical process control charts, namely standardised u-control chart. An empirical research including 618 random samples is conducted to show how the proposed methodology works in practice. A survey study based on the SERVQUAL scale is performed to obtain patient dissatisfaction level with respect to five major criteria, namely tangibility, reliability, responsiveness, assurance and empathy, in a public hospital in Istanbul, Turkey. This study extends the current limited researches related to monitoring and obliterating patient dissatisfaction in hospital services. The current study also contributes to the literature on health-care research in the context of service business by proposing a methodology to monitor patient dissatisfaction in hospitals. The findings show that the proposed methodology can be easily and efficiently conducted in practice. © 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

[Departement_IRSTEA]Ecotechnologies [TR1_IRSTEA]MOTIVE; International audience; Designing and building a Data Warehouse (DW), and associated OLAP cubes, are long processes, during which decision-maker requirements play an important role. But decision-makers are not OLAP experts and can find it difficult to deal with the concepts behind DW and OLAP. To support DW design in this context, we propose: (i) a new rapid prototyping methodology, integrating two different DM algorithms, to define dimension hierarchies according to decision-maker knowledge; (ii) a complete UML Profile, to define a DW schema that integrates both the DM algorithms; (iii) a mapping process to transform multidimensional schemata according to the results of the DM algorithms; (iv) a tool implementing the proposed methodology; (v) a full validation, based on a real case study concerning bird biodiversity. In conclusion, we confirm the rapidity and efficacy of our methodology and tool in providing a multidimensional schema to satisfy decision-maker analytical needs.

Dysphagia can have severe consequences for the patient's health, influencing health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Sound psychometric properties of HRQoL questionnaires are a precondition for assessing the impact of dysphagia, the focus of this study, resulting in recommendations for the appropriate use of these questionnaires in both clinical practice and research contexts. We performed a systematic review starting with a search for and retrieval of all full-text articles on the development of HRQoL questionnaires related to oropharyngeal dysphagia and/or their psychometric validation from the electronic databases PubMed and Embase published up to June 2011. Psychometric properties were judged according to quality criteria proposed for health status questionnaires. Eight questionnaires were included in this study. Four are aimed solely at HRQoL in oropharyngeal dysphagia: the deglutition handicap index (DHI), dysphagia handicap index (DHI'), M.D. Anderson Dysphagia Inventory (MDADI), and SWAL-QOL, while the EDGQ, EORTC QLQ-STO 22, EORTC QLQ-OG 25 and EORTC QLQ-H&N35 focus on other primary diseases resulting in dysphagia. The psychometric properties of the DHI, DHI', MDADI, and SWAL-QOL were evaluated. For appropriate applicability of HRQoL questionnaires, strong scores on the psychometric criteria face validity, criterion validity, and interpretability are prerequisites. The SWAL-QOL has the strongest ratings for these criteria, while the DHI' is the most easy to apply given its 25 items and the use of a uniform scoring format. For optimal use of HRQoL questionnaires in diverse settings, it is necessary to combine psychometric and utility approaches.

Item does not contain fulltext OBJECTIVE: Research on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in older persons with medically unexplained symptoms (MUS) is scarce, and, in contrast with younger patients, interactions with chronic somatic diseases are more complex. DESIGN: In the current study we compared HRQoL between older persons with MUS and older persons with medically explained symptoms (MES). Our study sample consisted of 118 older MUS-patients and 154 older MES-patients. SETTING/MEASUREMENTS: The diagnosis of MUS was ascertained by the general practitioner and confirmed by a geriatrician within a multidisciplinary diagnostic assessment. Additional characteristics, including the HRQoL (Short Form-36), were assessed during a home visit. MES-patients received two home visits to assess all measures. Multiple linear regression analyses, adjusted for age, sex, education, cognitive functioning, and psychiatric diagnoses, were performed to assess the relationship between group (MUS/MES) and HRQoL. Analyses were repeated with additional adjustments for somatization and hypochondriacal cognitions. RESULTS: Older patients with MUS had a significantly lower level of HRQoL compared with older patients with MES. Even after adjustments, the presence of MUS was still associated with both a lower physical and mental HRQoL. These associations disappeared, however, after additional adjustments for somatization and hypochondriacal cognitions. Within the subgroup of MUS-patients, higher levels of hypochondriac anxiety and of somatization were significantly associated with both lower physical and mental HRQoL. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between HRQoL and late-life MUS disappear when corrected for somatization and hypochondriacal cognitions, which is in line with the DSM-5 classification of somatic symptom disorder. Appropriate psychological treatment seems needed to improve HRQoL in older MUS-patients.

In this paper we present a formal framework for modelling a trajectory data warehouse (TDW), namely a data warehouse aimed at storing aggregate information on trajectories of moving objects, which also offers visual OLAP operations for data analysis. The data warehouse model includes both temporal and spatial dimensions, and it is flexible and general enough to deal with objects that are either completely free or constrained in their movements (e.g., they move along a road network). In particular, the spatial dimension and the associated concept hierarchy reflect the structure of the environment in which the objects travel. Moreover, we cope with some issues related to the efficient computation of aggregate measures, as needed for implementing roll-up operations. The TDW and its visual interface allow one to investigate the behaviour of objects inside a given area as well as the movements of objects between areas in the same neighbourhood. A user can easily navigate the aggregate measures obtained from OLAP queries at different granularities, and get overall views in time and in space of the measures, as well as a focused view on specific measures, spatial areas, or temporal intervals. We discuss two application scenarios of our TDW, namely road traffic and vessel movement analysis, for which we built prototype systems. They mainly differ in the kind of information available for the moving objects under observation and their movement constraints.

Outputs from coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are used in examining tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) and their relationships with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Herein TPDV is classified as either ENSO-induced TPDV (EIT) or ENSO-like TPDV (ELT), based on their correlations with a decadal modulation index of ENSO amplitude and spatial pattern. EIT is identified by the leading EOF mode of the low-pass filtered equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies and is highly correlated with the decadal ENSO modulation index. This mode is characterized by an east–west dipole structure along the equator. ELT is usually defined by the first EOF mode of subsurface temperature, of which the spatial structure is similar to ENSO. Generally, this mode is insignificantly correlated with the decadal modulation of ENSO. EIT closely interacts with the residuals induced by ENSO asymmetries, both of which show similar spatial structures. On the other hand, ELT is controlled by slowly varying ocean adjustments analogous to a recharge oscillator of ENSO. Both types of TPDV have similar spectral peaks on a decadal-to-interdecadal time scale. Interestingly, the variances of both types of TPDV depend on the strength of connection between El Niño–La Niña residuals and EIT, such that the strong two-way feedback between them enhances EIT and reduces ELT. The strength of the two-way feedback is also related to ENSO variability. The flavors of El Niño–La Niña with respect to changes in the tropical Pacific mean state tend to be well simulated when ENSO variability is larger in CGCMs. As a result, stronger ENSO variability leads to intensified interactive feedback between ENSO residuals and enhanced EIT in CGCMs.

Empirical studies about supply chain flexibility have mainly focused on one (manufacturing) company, occasionally incorporating the adjoining view from a supplier, distributor, or retailer. The present paper argues that a dyadic perspective is not sufficient and that an integrated perspective is required. In-depth case study data was collected and analyzed. The data covers eight organizations in a fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) food supply chain, including suppliers, the main manufacturer, the logistics service provider, and retailers. Drawing on network theory and stakeholder theory, the study analyzed how these eight organizations experience flexibility across the supply chain. The findings show that each chain member implements flexibility to fulfill the direct needs of the next-tier chain member. Organizations at different positions in the supply chain prioritize other flexibilities. There is no support for overall supply chain flexibility. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Background: With today's specialized medical care, life expectancy of persons with a spinal cord injury (SCI) has considerably improved. With increasing age and time since injury, many individuals with SCI, however, show a serious inactive lifestyle, associated with deconditioning and secondary health conditions (SHCs) (e.g. pressure sores, urinary and respiratory tract infections, osteoporosis, upper-extremity pain, obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease) and resulting in reduced participation and quality of life (QoL). Avoiding this downward spiral, is crucial. Objectives: To understand possible deconditioning and SHCs in persons aging with a SCI in the context of active lifestyle, fitness, participation and QoL and to examine interventions that enhance active lifestyle, fitness, participation and QoL and help prevent some of the SHCs. Methods: A multicentre multidisciplinary research program (Active LifestyLe Rehabilitation Interventions in aging Spinal Cord injury, ALLRISC) in the setting of the long-standing Dutch SCI-rehabilitation clinical research network. Results: ALLRISC is a four-study research program addressing inactive lifestyle, deconditioning, and SHCs and their associations in people aging with SCI. The program consists of a cross-sectional study (n = 300) and three randomized clinical trials. All studies share a focus on fitness, active lifestyle, SHCs and deconditioning and outcome measures on these and other (participation, QoL) domains. It is hypothesized that a self-management program, low-intensity wheelchair exercise and hybrid functional electrical stimulation-supported leg and handcycling are effective interventions to enhance active life style and fitness, help to prevent some of the important SHCs in chronic SCI and improve participation and QoL. Conclusion: ALLRISC aims to provide evidence-based preventive components of a rehabilitation aftercare system that preserves functioning in aging persons with SCI. Implications for Rehabilitation Rehabilitation aftercare is important to prevent secondary health complaints and deconditioning in persons aging with a spinal cord injury. Rehabilitation practice needs to develop a proper system of rehabilitation aftercare. Active lifestyle and fitness are important ingredients for a healthy perspective in persons aging with a spinal cord injury.

Anthropogenic pressures have led to problems of nutrient over-enrichment and eutrophication in estuarine and coastal systems on a global scale. Recent improvements in farming practices, specifically a decrease in fertiliser application rates, have reduced nutrient loadings in Ireland. In line with national and European Directives, monitoring of Irish estuarine systems has been conducted for the last 30years, allowing a comparison of the effectiveness of measures undertaken to improve water quality and chemical and biological trends. The Blackwater Estuary, which drains a large agricultural catchment on the south coast of Ireland, has experienced a decrease in calculated nitrogen (N) (17%) and phosphorus (P) (20%) loads in the last decade. Monitored long-term river inputs reflect the reductions while estuarine P concentrations, chlorophyll and dissolved oxygen saturation show concurrent improvement. Consistently high N concentrations suggest a decoupling between N loads and estuarine responses. This highlights the complex interaction between N and P load reductions, and biochemical processes relating to remineralisation and primary production which can alter the effectiveness of the estuarine filter in reducing nutrient transport to the coastal zone. Effective management and reduction of both diffuse and point nutrient sources to surface waters require a consideration of the processes which may alter the effectiveness of measures in estuarine and coastal waters.

Objectives: One of the most referenced theoretical frameworks to measure Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) is the Wilson and Cleary framework. With some adaptions this framework has been validated in the adult population, but has not been tested in pediatric populations. Our goal was to empirically investigate it in children.Methods: The contributory factors to Health Related Quality of Life that we included were symptom status (presence of chronic disease or hospitalizations), functional status (developmental status), developmental aspects of the individual (social-emotional) behavior, and characteristics of the social environment (socioeconomic status and area of education). Structural equation modeling was used to assess the measurement structure of the model in 214 German children (3-5 years old) participating in a follow-up study that investigates pediatric health outcomes.Results: Model fit was chi(2) = 5.5; df = 6; p = 0.48; SRMR = 0.01. The variance explained of Health Related Quality of Life was 15%. Health Related Quality of Life was affected by the area education (i.e. where kindergartens were located) and development status. Developmental status was affected by the area of education, socioeconomic status and individual behavior. Symptoms did not affect the model.Conclusions: The goodness of fit and the overall variance explained were good. However, the results between children' and adults' tests differed and denote a conceptual gap between adult and children measures. Indeed, there is a lot of variety in pediatric Health Related Quality of Life measures, which represents a lack of a common definition of pediatric Health Related Quality of Life. We recommend that researchers invest time in the development of pediatric Health Related Quality of Life theory and theory based evaluations.

The microphysical aspects of the relationship between radar reflectivity Z and rainfall rate R are examined. Various concepts discussed in the literature are integrated into a coherent analytical framework and discussed with a focus on the interpretability of Z - R relations from a microphysical point of view. The forward problem of analytically characterizing the Z - R relationship based on exponential, gamma, and monodisperse raindrop size distributions is highlighted as well as the inverse problem of a microphysical interpretation of empirically obtained Z - R relation coefficients. Three special modes that a Z - R relationship may attain are revealed, depending on whether the variability of the raindrop size distribution is governed by variations of drop number density, drop size, or a coordinated combination thereof with constant ratio of mean drop size and number density. A rain parameter diagram is presented that assists in diagnosing these microphysical modes. The number-controlled case results in linear Z - R relations that have been observed for steady and statistically homogeneous or equilibrium rainfall conditions. Most rainfall situations, however, exhibit a variability of drop spectra that is facilitated by a mix of variations of drop size and number density, which results in the well-known power-law Z - R relationships. Significant uncertainties are found to be associated with the retrieval of microphysical information from the Z - R relation coefficients, but even more so with shortcomings of the measurement of rainfall information and the subsequent processing of that data to obtain a Z - R relation. Given a proper consideration of the uncertainties, however, valuable microphysical information may be obtained, particularly as a result of long-term monitoring of rainfall for fixed observational settings but also through comparisons among different climatic rainfall regimes.

The intrastorm variability of raindrop size distributions as a source of uncertainty in single-parameter and dual-parameter radar rainfall estimates is studied using time series analyses of disdrometer observations. Two rain-rate (R) estimators are considered: the traditional single-parameter estimator using only the radar reflectivity factor (Z) and a dual-polarization estimator using a combination of radar reflectivity at horizontal polarization (Z(H)) and differential reflectivity (Z(DR)). A case study for a squall-line system passing over the Goodwin Creek experimental watershed in northern Mississippi is presented. Microphysically, the leading convective line is characterized by large raindrop concentrations (>500 drops per cubic meter), large mean raindrop sizes (>1 mm), and wide raindrop size distributions (standard deviations >0.5 mm), as compared to the transition region and the trailing stratiform rain. The transition and stratiform phases have similar raindrop concentrations and mean raindrop sizes. Their main difference is that the distributions are wider in the latter. A scaling-law analysis reveals that the shapes of the scaled spectra are bent downward for small raindrop sizes in the leading convective line, slightly bent upward in the transition zone, and strongly bent upward in the trailing stratiform rain. The exponents of the resulting Z-R relationships are roughly the same for the leading convective line and the trailing stratiform rain (approximate to1.4) and slightly larger for the transition region (approximate to1.5), with prefactors increasing in this order: transition (approximate to200), convective (approximate to300), stratiform (approximate to450). In terms of rainfall estimation bias, the best-fit mean R(Z(H), Z(DR)) relationship outperforms the best-fit mean R( Z) relationship, both for each storm phase separately and for the event as a whole.

Objectives To determine the effects of residents’ communication self-assessment and supervisor feedback on residents’ communication-competency awareness, on their patient-education competency, and on their patients’ opinion. Methods The program consisted of the implementation of a communication self-assessment and feedback process using videoed outpatient consultations (video-CAF). Residents wrote down communication learning objectives during the instruction and after each video-CAF session. Residents’ patient-education competency was assessed by trained raters, using the CELI instrument. Participating patients completed a questionnaire about the contact with their physician. Results Forty-four residents and 21 supervisors participated in 87 video-CAF sessions. After their first video-CAF session, residents wrote down more learning objectives addressing their control and rapport skills and their listening skills. Video-CAF participation improved residents’ patient-education competency, but only in their control and rapport skills. Video-CAF participation had no effect on patients’ opinion. Conclusions Video-CAF appears to be a feasible procedure and might be effective in improving residents’ patient-education competency in clinical practice. Practice implications Video-CAF could fill the existing deficiency of communication training in residency programs.

Based on an examination of the relevant literature, this article presents a survey of psychosocial models used in the psychogeriatric field. Models with a multidimensional approach to behavior problems in dementia and a focus on the individual were selected. The utility of these psychosocial models as a theoretical framework for emotion-oriented care for people with dementia, especially Alzheimer disease, is examined. In addition to describing the models, this article also reports on the target group for which these models were developed, the degree to which they have been operationalized for psychogeriatrics, and the degree to which they have been subjected to empirical testing. This study shows that all psychosocial models described may be called emotion-oriented, although they also contain, in varying degrees, elements from the consequences model. It was found that the models are used not only as a theoretical framework for research, but also in the provision of care. Despite the fact that most models have been used in the psychogeriatric field, therefore proving their practicability for psychogeriatric practice, only one of the models described has been tested empirically so far. The theoretical validity of the models in question is, therefore, not yet clear.

Based on an examination of the relevant literature, this article presents a survey of psychosocial models used in the psychogeriatric field. Models with a multidimensional approach to behavior problems in dementia and a focus on the individual were selected. The utility of these psychosocial models as a theoretical framework for emotion-oriented care for people with dementia, especially Alzheimer disease, is examined. In addition to describing the models, this article also reports on the target group for which these models were developed, the degree to which they have been operationalized for psychogeriatrics, and the degree to which they have been subjected to empirical testing. This study shows that all psychosocial models described may be called emotion-oriented, although they also contain, in varying degrees, elements from the consequences model. It was found that the models are used not only as a theoretical framework for research, but also in the provision of care. Despite the fact that most models have been used in the psychogeriatric field, therefore proving their practicability for psychogeriatric practice. only one of the models described has been tested empirically so far. The theoretical validity of the models in question is, therefore. not yet clear.

Dysphagia can have severe consequences for the patient’s health, influencing health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Sound psychometric properties of HRQoL questionnaires are a precondition for assessing the impact of dysphagia, the focus of this study, resulting in recommendations for the appropriate use of these questionnaires in both clinical practice and research contexts. We performed a systematic review starting with a search for and retrieval of all full-text articles on the development of HRQoL questionnaires related to oropharyngeal dysphagia and/or their psychometric validation from the electronic databases PubMed and Embase published up to June 2011. Psychometric properties were judged according to quality criteria proposed for health status questionnaires. Eight questionnaires were included in this study. Four are aimed solely at HRQoL in oropharyngeal dysphagia: the deglutition handicap index (DHI), dysphagia handicap index (DHI′), M.D. Anderson Dysphagia Inventory (MDADI), and SWAL-QOL, while the EDGQ, EORTC QLQ-STO 22, EORTC QLQ-OG 25 and EORTC QLQ-H&N35 focus on other primary diseases resulting in dysphagia. The psychometric properties of the DHI, DHI′, MDADI, and SWAL-QOL were evaluated. For appropriate applicability of HRQoL questionnaires, strong scores on the psychometric criteria face validity, criterion validity, and interpretability are prerequisites. The SWAL-QOL has the strongest ratings for these criteria, while the DHI′ is the most easy to apply given its 25 items and the use of a uniform scoring format. For optimal use of HRQoL questionnaires in diverse settings, it is necessary to combine psychometric and utility approaches.

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We benefited from freely available datasets, including SLA from Aviso (http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/data/products/sea-surface-height-produ cts/global/msla), WWV from PMEL (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elNino/wwv/), gridded Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/), and the El Nino Modoki Index (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt). We do thank B. Barnier and J.-M. Molines from LEGI, Grenoble, for making available the latest DRAKKAR model output. Comments from S. Cravatte and from four anonymous and tenacious though overall constructive reviewers were appreciated. One of us (A.S.) benefited from a Ph.D. grant from the French Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) while staying at the LEGOS laboratory in Toulouse, France from 2009-2012. 0 PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD OXFORD DEEP-SEA RES PT I; One of the leading theories to explain the oscillatory nature of the El Nino Southern Oscillation is the recharge-discharge oscillator paradigm, which roots on warm waters exchanged between the equatorial and off-equatorial regions. This study tests the relevance of this theory to account for the Eastern and recently mediated Central Pacific El Nino events. The recharge-discharge of the equatorial Pacific, measured here as changes in Warm (> 20 degrees C) Water Volume (WWV), is analysed using monthly 1993-2010 sea level anomaly (a proxy for WWV) obtained from altimetry, and a validated 1958-2007 DRAKKAR simulation. An Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (ARC) technique performed on the observed and modelled WWV tendency shows the existence of five distinct clusters, which characterise the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Nino, La Nina, after EP El Nino and neutral conditions. The AHC results, complemented with an analysis of lagged-regression analysis, and 3-month averages of typical EP and CP El Nino events, indicate that the equatorial band WWV discharge during CP is not as pronounced as during EP El Nino. To understand the differences, we analysed the balance of horizontal mass transports accounting for changes in WWV tendency. The analysis indicates an overall poleward transport during EP El Nino, which is not the case during CP El Nino. Instead, a compensating effect with a poleward (equatorward) transport occurring in the western (eastern) Pacific is evident, in line with changes in the zonal thermocline slopes occurring in the western (eastern) half of the basin. The WWV changes are discussed with respect to the conceptual phases of the recharge-discharge oscillator paradigm. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The dynamic environment wherein agri-food companies operate and the high requirements on food safety force companies to critically judge and improve their food safety management system (FSMS) and its performance. The objective of this study was to develop a diagnostic instrument enabling a systematic assessment of a company's food safety management system. This paper discusses core assurance activities, their contribution to assurance, and how to judge these activities in a company's FSMS. The diagnosis shows which core assurance activities a company executes and at what level, therewith creating a basis for discussion about systematic improvements.

We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR) at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S–40° N, 90° E–75° W). The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text). A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A) time-series, in the region 7° S–5° N 160° E–160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from −45 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm−2 during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S–5° N, 120–140° E), where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 to −20 Wm−2 during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the off-equatorial western Pacific region 7–15° N 150–170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months and the pattern of this anomaly is indicative of ENSO operating through the mechanism of the western Pacific oscillator. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail.

In this article, an instrument is presented to diagnose microbial safety control activities in a food safety management system. The need of such a tool is derived from the importance of microbial safety control and the need for improvement of existing control systems. Careful diagnosis of these systems provides the basis for their improvement. The diagnostic instrument provides a comprehensive checklist of crucial control activities, addressing major technology-dependent and managerial activities in design and operation of preventive measures, intervention processes, and monitoring systems. Secondly, it provides detailed grids describing three levels of execution for each safety control activity to enable a differentiated assessment of ones food safety control system situation. The basic assumption underlying the diagnostic instrument is that activities on a higher level are more predictable and better able to achieve a desired safety outcome, due to more insight in underlying mechanisms and more accurate information. Finally, we discuss that using the instrument may contribute in finding effective types and levels of control activities within given contextual dependencies.

International audience; We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the surface longwave radiation (downwelling and net) over a 21-year period in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40 S?40 N, 90 E?75 W). The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (acronyms explained in main text), for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters. An excellent correlation was found between the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) anomaly and the Niño-3.4 index time-series, over the Niño-3.4 region located in the central Pacific. A high anti-correlation was also found over the western Pacific (15?0 S, 105?130 E). There is convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downwelling longwave radiation anomaly in the western Pacific precedes that in the Niño-3.4 region by 3?4 months. Thus, the downwelling longwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to asses whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail. Over the Niño-3.4 region, the mean DLR anomaly values range from +20 Wm?2 during El Niño episodes to ?20 Wm?2 during La Niña events, while over the western Pacific (15?0 S, 105?130 E) these values range from ?15 Wm?2 to +10 Wm?2, respectively. The long- term average (1984?2004) distribution of the net downwelling longwave radiation at the surface over the tropical and subtropical Pacific for the three month period November-December-January shows a net thermal cooling of the ocean surface. When El Niño conditions prevail, the thermal radiative cooling in the central and south-eastern tropical Pacific becomes weaker by 10 Wm?2 south of the equator in the central Pacific (7?0 S, 160?120 W) for the three-month period of NDJ, because the DLR increase is larger than the increase in surface thermal emission. In contrast, the thermal radiative cooling over Indonesia is enhanced by 10 Wm?2 during the early (August?September?October) El Niño phase.

International audience; The flow forecasting performance of eight updating models, incorporated in the Galway River Flow Modelling and Forecasting System (GFMFS), was assessed using daily data (rainfall, evaporation and discharge) of the Irish Brosna catchment (1207 km2), considering their one to six days lead-time discharge forecasts. The Perfect Forecast of Input over the Forecast Lead-time scenario was adopted, where required, in place of actual rainfall forecasts. The eight updating models were: (i) the standard linear Auto-Regressive (AR) model, applied to the forecast errors (residuals) of a simulation (non-updating) rainfall-runoff model; (ii) the Neural Network Updating (NNU) model, also using such residuals as input; (iii) the Linear Transfer Function (LTF) model, applied to the simulated and the recently observed discharges; (iv) the Non-linear Auto-Regressive eXogenous-Input Model (NARXM), also a neural network-type structure, but having wide options of using recently observed values of one or more of the three data series, together with non-updated simulated outflows, as inputs; (v) the Parametric Simple Linear Model (PSLM), of LTF-type, using recent rainfall and observed discharge data; (vi) the Parametric Linear perturbation Model (PLPM), also of LTF-type, using recent rainfall and observed discharge data, (vii) n-AR, an AR model applied to the observed discharge series only, as a naïve updating model; and (viii) n-NARXM, a naive form of the NARXM, using only the observed discharge data, excluding exogenous inputs. The five GFMFS simulation (non-updating) models used were the non-parametric and parametric forms of the Simple Linear Model and of the Linear Perturbation Model, the Linearly-Varying Gain Factor Model, the Artificial Neural Network Model, and the conceptual Soil Moisture Accounting and Routing (SMAR) model. As the SMAR model performance was found to be the best among these models, in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe R2 value, both in calibration and in verification, the simulated outflows of this model only were selected for the subsequent exercise of producing updated discharge forecasts. All the eight forms of updating models for producing lead-time discharge forecasts were found to be capable of producing relatively good lead-1 (1-day ahead) forecasts, with R2 values almost 90% or above. However, for higher lead time forecasts, only three updating models, viz., NARXM, LTF, and NNU, were found to be suitable, with lead-6 values of R2 about 90% or higher. Graphical comparisons were made of the lead-time forecasts for the two largest floods, one in the calibration period and the other in the verification period.

Models are needed for forecasting the effects of eutrophication on stream and river ecosystems. Most of the current models do not include differences in local stream characteristics and effects on the biota. To define the most important variables that should be used in a stream eutrophication model, the literature was reviewed. Increased nutrient concentrations can cause toxicity (by high concentrations of ammonia or nitrite), which directly affects the functioning of organisms in the ecosystem. Indirect effects take place via two main processes, primary production and decomposition which can both be stimulated by an increase of the nutrient concentrations. If there are no regulating mechanisms, a higher production rate can cause an increase in algal biomass. But often secondary production and in some cases even the number of predators also increases. This means that effects of nutrient enrichment become visible throughout the whole food web. The effects on community level are shown by changes in species composition and densities. A higher algal biomass could also cause oxygen depletion, which has a direct effect on macrofauna and fish. Important for the extent of the eutrophication effects is the amount of nutrients that is withdrawn from the water column by the ecosystem. All these mechanisms are strongly influenced by the local characteristics of the stream. That is why first of all the sensitivity of a stream to eutrophication depends on the regional stream characteristics. A model developed for a certain stream type and region is in many cases not applicable to other stream types or regions. Therefore, local stream characteristics should be included if the model should be more generally applicable. In conclusion: Stream eutrophication models should combine relationships between nutrient input, nutrient uptake versus transport, and their effects on the biotic community. It should include relationships between regional stream characteristics and the expected extent of the eutrophication effects (the sensitivity of a stream for eutrophication). Models that include all these factors are not yet available but there are many models which focus on only a part of these processes. Some of these parts can be used to fill in a complete stream eutrophication model. However, because of differences between stream types and regions these parts should first be tested for their applicability to the stream type and region of interest.