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The Australian National Outlook is a new initiative by CSIRO, which is intended to contribute to the evidence base and understanding required for Australia to navigate the complex and often intertwined challenges involved in achieving sustainable prosperity. This first National Outlook seeks to provide a better understanding of Australia’s physical economy. It has a particular focus on understanding two aspects: The ‘energy-water-food nexus’ and the prospects for Australia’s materials and energy-intensive industries, which account for one quarter of economic value and employment, but around three quarters of our use of energy, water and materials. The analysis explores over 20 possible futures for Australia out to 2050 against the backdrop of the past 40 years to identify key future global drivers and assesses how these may impact our country. It then integrates these global perspectives into a uniquely Australian context in relation to plausible technological and policy settings we must consider as a nation to secure our future prosperity. The National Outlook and science in general can contribute evidence and analysis to inform the national conversations. However, it cannot determine the choices we have to make as a community. They will – and should – be shaped by our values and collective imagination. While this outlook identifies national opportunities, achieving these benefits will require considerable further deliberation and action. The investments and other changes required will not happen overnight. There is no overstating the challenges that exist for policymakers, industries and communities in navigating the transitions needed to secure our future prosperity.