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Many natural phenomena are quantified by counts of observable events, from the annihilation of quasiparticles in a lattice to predator-prey encounters on a landscape to spikes in a neural network. These events are triggered at random intervals when an underlying dynamical system occupies a set of reactive states in its phase space. We derive a general expression for the distribution of times between events in such counting processes assuming the underlying triggering dynamics is a stochastic process that converges to a stationary distribution. Our results contribute to resolving a long-standing dichotomy in the study of reaction-diffusion processes, showing the inter-reaction point process interpolates between a reaction- and a diffusion-limited regime. At low reaction rates, the inter-reaction process is Poisson with a rate depending on stationary properties of the event-triggering stochastic process. At high reaction rates, inter-reaction times are dominated by the hitting times to the reactive states. To further illustrate the power of this approach we apply our framework to obtain the counting statistics of two counting processes appearing in several biophysical scenarios. First, we study the common situation of estimating an animal's activity level by how often it crosses a detector, showing that the mean number of crossing events can decrease monotonically with the hitting rate, a seemingly 'paradoxical' result that could possibly lead to misinterpretation of experimental count data. Second, we derive the ensemble statistics for the detection of many particles, recovering and generalizing known results in the biophysics of chemosensation. Overall, we develop a unifying theoretical framework to quantify inter-event time distributions in reaction-diffusion systems that clarifies existing debates in the literature and provide examples of application to real-world scenarios., Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures

The emergence of a spatially-organized population distribution depends on the dynamics of the population and mediators of interaction (activators and inhibitors). Two broad classes of models have been used to investigate when and how self-organization is triggered, namely, reaction-diffusion and spatially nonlocal models. Nevertheless, these models implicitly assume smooth propagation scenarios, neglecting that individuals many times interact by exchanging short and abrupt pulses of the mediating substance. A recently proposed framework advances in the direction of properly accounting for these short-scale fluctuations by applying a coarse-graining procedure on the pulse dynamics. In this paper, we generalize the coarse-graining procedure and apply the extended formalism to new scenarios in which mediators influence individuals' reproductive success or their motility. We show that, in the slow- and fast-mediator limits, pulsed interactions recover, respectively, the reaction-diffusion and nonlocal models, providing a mechanistic connection between them. Furthermore, at each limit, the spatial stability condition is qualitatively different, leading to a timescale-induced transition where spatial patterns emerge as mediator dynamics becomes sufficiently fast.

Ecologists have long investigated how demographic and movement parameters determine the spatial distribution and critical habitat size of a population. However, most models oversimplify movement behavior, neglecting how landscape heterogeneity influences individual movement. We relax this assumption and introduce a reaction-advection-diffusion equation that describes population dynamics when individuals exhibit space-dependent movement bias toward preferred regions. Our model incorporates two types of these preferred regions: a high-quality habitat patch, termed `habitat', which is included to model avoidance of degraded habitats like deforested regions; and a preferred location, such as a chemoattractant source or a watering hole, that we allow to be asymmetrically located with respect to habitat edges. In this scenario, the critical habitat size depends on both the relative position of the preferred location and the movement bias intensities. When preferred locations are near habitat edges, the critical habitat size can decrease when diffusion increases, a phenomenon called the drift paradox. Also, ecological traps arise when the habitat overcrowds due to excessive attractiveness or the preferred location is near a low-quality region. Our results highlight the importance of species-specific movement behavior and habitat preference as drivers of population dynamics in fragmented landscapes and, therefore, in the design of protected areas., Comment: 21 pages, 8 figures

Efficient personnel scheduling plays a significant role in matching workload demand in organizations. However, staff scheduling is sometimes affected by unexpected events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, that disrupt regular operations. Since infectious diseases like COVID-19 transmit mainly through close contact with individuals, an efficient way to prevent the spread is by limiting the number of on-site employees in the workplace along with regular testing. Thus, determining an optimal scheduling and testing strategy that meets the organization's goals and prevents the spread of the virus is crucial during disease outbreaks. In this paper, we formulate these challenges in the framework of two Mixed Integer Non-linear Programming (MINLP) models. The first model aims to derive optimal staff occupancy and testing strategies to minimize the risk of infection among employees, while the second model aims at only optimal staff occupancy under a random testing strategy. To solve the problems expressed in the models, we propose a canonical genetic algorithm as well as two commercial solvers. Using both real and synthetic contact networks of employees, our results show that following the recommended occupancy and testing strategy reduces the risk of infection 25\%--60\% under different scenarios., Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures

Human mobility contributes to the fast spatio-temporal propagation of infectious diseases. During an outbreak, monitoring the infection situation on either side of an international border is very crucial as there is always a higher risk of disease importation associated with cross-border migration. Mechanistic models are effective tools to investigate the consequences of cross-border mobility on disease dynamics and help in designing effective control strategies. However, in practice, due to the unavailability of cross-border mobility data, it becomes difficult to propose reliable, model-based strategies. In this study, we propose a method for estimating cross-border mobility flux between any pair of regions that share an international border from the observed difference in the timing of the infection peak in each region. Assuming the underlying disease dynamics is governed by a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, we employ stochastic simulations to obtain the maximum likelihood cross-border mobility estimate for any pair of regions where the difference in peak time can be measured. We then investigate how the estimate of cross-border mobility flux varies depending on the disease transmission rate, which is a key epidemiological parameter. We further show that the uncertainty in mobility flux estimates decreases for higher disease transmission rates and larger observed differences in peak timing. Finally, as a case study, we apply the method to some selected regions along the Poland-Germany border which are directly connected through multiple modes of transportation and quantify the cross-border fluxes from the COVID-19 cases data during the period $20^{\rm th}$ February $2021$ to $20^{\rm th}$ June $2021$., Comment: Added Reference (Abdussalam et al. (2022) in Section 3

Throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, decision makers have relied on forecasting models to determine and implement non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). In building the forecasting models, continuously updated datasets from various stakeholders including developers, analysts, and testers are required to provide precise predictions. Here we report the design of a scalable pipeline which serves as a data synchronization to support inter-country top-down spatiotemporal observations and forecasting models of COVID-19, named the where2test, for Germany, Czechia and Poland. We have built an operational data store (ODS) using PostgreSQL to continuously consolidate datasets from multiple data sources, perform collaborative work, facilitate high performance data analysis, and trace changes. The ODS has been built not only to store the COVID-19 data from Germany, Czechia, and Poland but also other areas. Employing the dimensional fact model, a schema of metadata is capable of synchronizing the various structures of data from those regions, and is scalable to the entire world. Next, the ODS is populated using batch Extract, Transfer, and Load (ETL) jobs. The SQL queries are subsequently created to reduce the need for pre-processing data for users. The data can then support not only forecasting using a version-controlled Arima-Holt model and other analyses to support decision making, but also risk calculator and optimisation apps. The data synchronization runs at a daily interval, which is displayed at https://www.where2test.de., Comment: DECo@VLDB22: workshop paper accepted

Long-term care facilities have been widely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Retirement homes are particularly vulnerable due to the higher mortality risk of infected elderly individuals. Once an outbreak occurs, suppressing the spread of the virus in retirement homes is challenging because the residents are in contact with each other, and isolation measures cannot be widely enforced. Regular testing strategies, on the other hand, have been shown to effectively prevent outbreaks in retirement homes. However, high frequency testing may consume substantial staff working time, which results in a trade-off between the time invested in testing, and the time spent providing essential care to residents. Thus, developing an optimal testing strategy is crucial to proactively detect infections while guaranteeing efficient use of limited staff time in these facilities. Although numerous efforts have been made to prevent the virus from spreading in long-term care facilities, this is the first study to develop testing strategies based on formal optimization methods. This paper proposes two novel optimization models for testing schedules. The models aim to minimize the risk of infection in retirement homes, considering the trade-off between the probability of infection and staff workload. We employ a probabilistic approach in conjunction with the optimization models, to compute the risk of infection, including contact rates, incidence status, and the probability of infection of the residents. To solve the models, we propose an enhanced local search algorithm by leveraging the symmetry property of the optimal solution. We perform several experiments with realistically sized instances and show that the proposed approach can derive optimal testing strategies., Comment: 44 pages, 3 figures

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many organizations (e.g. businesses, companies, government facilities, etc.) have attempted to reduce infection risk by employing partial home office strategies. However, working from home can also reduce productivity for certain types of work and particular employees. Over the long term, many organizations therefore face a need to balance infection risk against productivity. Motivated by this trade-off, we model this situation as a bi-objective optimization problem and propose a practical approach to find trade-off (Pareto optimal) solutions. We present a new probabilistic framework to compute the expected number of infected employees as a function of key parameters including: the incidence level in the neighborhood of the organization, the COVID-19 transmission rate, the number of employees, the percentage of vaccinated employees, the testing frequency, and the contact rate among employees. We implement the model and the optimization algorithm and perform several numerical experiments with different parameter settings. Furthermore, we provide an online application based on the models and algorithms developed in this paper, which can be used to identify the optimal workplace occupancy rate for real-world organizations.

Self-organized spatial patterns of vegetation are frequent in drylands and, because pattern shape correlates with water availability, they have been suggested as important indicators of ecosystem health. However, the mechanisms underlying pattern emergence remain unclear. Some theories hypothesize that patterns could result from a water-mediated scale-dependent feedback (SDF) whereby interactions favoring plant growth dominate at short distances and growth-inhibitory interactions dominate in the long range. However, we know little about how the presence of a focal plant affects the fitness of its neighbors as a function of the inter-individual distance, which is expected to be highly ecosystem-dependent. This lack of empirical knowledge and system dependency challenge the relevance of SDF as a unifying theory for vegetation pattern formation. Assuming that plant interactions are always inhibitory and only their intensity is scale-dependent, alternative theories also recover the typical vegetation patterns observed in nature. Importantly, although these alternative hypotheses lead to visually indistinguishable patterns, they predict contrasting desertification dynamics, which questions the potential use of vegetation patterns as ecosystem-state indicators. To help resolve this issue, we first review existing theories for vegetation self-organization and their conflicting predictions about desertification dynamics. Second, we discuss potential empirical tests via manipulative experiments to identify pattern-forming mechanisms and link them to specific desertification dynamics. A comprehensive view of models, the mechanisms they intend to capture, and experiments to test them in the field will help to better understand both how patterns emerge and improve predictions on the fate of the ecosystems where they form., Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures

Encounter rates link movement strategies to intra- and inter-specific interactions, and therefore translate individual movement behavior into higher-level ecological processes. Indeed, a large body of interacting population theory rests on the law of mass action, which can be derived from assumptions of Brownian motion in an enclosed container with exclusively local perception. These assumptions imply completely uniform space use, individual home ranges equivalent to the population range, and encounter dependent on movement paths actually crossing. Mounting empirical evidence, however, suggests that animals use space non-uniformly, occupy home ranges substantially smaller than the population range, and are often capable of nonlocal perception. Here, we explore how these empirically supported behaviors change pairwise encounter rates. Specifically, we derive novel analytical expressions for encounter rates under Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, which features non-uniform space use and allows individual home ranges to differ from the population range. We compare OU-based encounter predictions to those of Reflected Brownian Motion, from which the law of mass action can be derived. For both models, we further explore how the interplay between the scale of perception and home range size affects encounter rates. We find that neglecting realistic movement and perceptual behaviors can systematically bias encounter rate predictions., Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, 10 appendices

Many natural processes rely on optimizing the success ratio of a search process. We use an experimental setup consisting of a simple online game in which players have to find a target hidden on a board, to investigate the how the rounds are influenced by the detection of cues. We focus on the search duration and the statistics of the trajectories traced on the board. The experimental data are explained by a family of random-walk-based models and probabilistic analytical approximations. If no initial information is given to the players, the search is optimized for cues that cover an intermediate spatial scale. In addition, initial information about the extension of the cues results, in general, in faster searches. Finally, strategies used by informed players turn into non-stationary processes in which the length of each displacement evolves to show a well-defined characteristic scale that is not found in non-informed searches., Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures

We introduce a class of maximum-entropy states that naturally includes within it all of the major continuous-time stochastic processes that have been applied to animal movement, including Brownian motion, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, a recently discovered hybrid of the previous models, and a new model that describes central-place foraging. We are also able to predict a further hierarchy of new models that will emerge as data quality improves to better resolve the underlying continuity of animal movement. Finally, we also show that Langevin equations must obey a fluctuation-dissipation theorem to generate processes that fall from this class of maximum-entropy distributions., Comment: 6 pages

The minimal ecological requirements for formation of regular vegetation patterns in semiarid systems have been recently questioned. Against the general belief that a combination of facilitative and competitive interactions is necessary, recent theoretical studies suggest that, under broad conditions, nonlocal competition among plants alone may induce patterns. In this paper, we review results along this line, presenting a series of models that yield spatial patterns when finite-range competition is the only driving force. A preliminary derivation of this type of model from a more detailed one that considers water-biomass dynamics is also presented. Keywords: Vegetation patterns, nonlocal interactions, Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures

We investigated the relationships between search efficiency, movement strategy, and non-local communication in the biological context of animal foraging. We considered situations where the members of a population of foragers perform either Gaussian jumps or Levy flights, and show that the search time is minimized when communication among individuals occurs at intermediate ranges, independently of the type of movement. Additionally, while Brownian strategies are more strongly influenced by the communication mechanism, Levy flights still result in shorter overall search durations., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures

Regular vegetation patterns in semiarid ecosystems are believed to arise from the interplay between long-range competition and facilitation processes acting at smaller distances. We show that, under rather general conditions, long-range competition alone may be enough to shape these patterns. To this end we propose a simple, general model for the dynamics of vegetation, which includes only long-range competition between plants. Competition is introduced through a nonlocal term, where the kernel function quantifies the intensity of the interaction. We recover the full spectrum of spatial structures typical of vegetation models that also account for facilitation in addition to competition., Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures

Savannas are characterized by a discontinuous tree layer superimposed on a continuous layer of grass. Identifying the mechanisms that facilitate this tree-grass coexistence has remained a persistent challenge in ecology and is known as the "savanna problem". In this work, we propose a model that combines a previous savanna model (Calabrese et al., 2010), which includes competitive interactions among trees and dispersal, with the Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model, therefore representing fire in a spatially explicit manner. The model is used to explore how the pattern of fire-spread, coupled with an explicit, fire-vulnerable tree life stage, affects tree density and spatial pattern. Tree density depends strongly on both fire frequency and tree-tree competition although the fire frequency, which induces indirect interactions between trees and between trees and grass, appears to be the crucial factor controlling the tree-extinction transition in which the savanna becomes grassland. Depending on parameters, adult trees may arrange in different regular or clumped patterns, the later of two different types (compact or open). Cluster-size distributions have fat tails but clean power-law behavior is only attained in specific cases.

We investigate the relationship between communication and search efficiency in a biological context by proposing a model of Brownian searchers with long-range pairwise interaction. After a general study of the properties of the model, we show an application to the particular case of acoustic communication among Mongolian gazelle, for which data are available, searching for good habitat areas. Using Monte Carlo simulations and density equations, our results point out that the search is optimal (i.e. the mean first hitting time among searchers is minimum) at intermediate scales of communication, showing that both an excess and a lack of information may worsen it., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures

Estimation of autocorrelations and spectral densities is of fundamental importance in many fields of science, from identifying pulsar signals in astronomy to measuring heart beats in medicine. In circumstances where one is interested in specific autocorrelation functions that do not fit into any simple families of models, such as auto-regressive moving average (ARMA), estimating model parameters is generally approached in one of two ways: by fitting the model autocorrelation function to a non-parameteric autocorrelation estimate via regression analysis or by fitting the model autocorrelation function directly to the data via maximum likelihood. Prior literature suggests that variogram regression yields parameter estimates of comparable quality to maximum likelihood. In this letter we demonstrate that, as sample size is increases, the accuracy of the maximum-likelihood estimates (MLE) ultimately improves by orders of magnitude beyond that of variogram regression. For relatively continuous and Gaussian processes, this improvement can occur for sample sizes of less than 100. Moreover, even where the accuracy of these methods is comparable, the MLE remains almost universally better and, more critically, variogram regression does not provide reliable confidence intervals. Inaccurate regression parameter estimates are typically accompanied by underestimated standard errors, whereas likelihood provides reliable confidence intervals., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures

We propose a model equation for the dynamics of tree density in mesic savannas. It considers long-range competition among trees and the effect of fire acting as a local facilitation mechanism. Despite short-range facilitation is taken to the local-range limit, the standard full spectrum of spatial structures obtained in general vegetation models is recovered. Long-range competition is thus the key ingredient for the development of patterns. The long time coexistence between trees and grass, and how fires affect the survival of trees as well as the maintenance of the patterns is studied. The influence of demographic noise is analyzed. The stochastic system, under the parameter constraints typical of mesic savannas, shows irregular patterns characteristics of realistic situations. The coexistence of trees and grass still remains at reasonable noise intensities., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures

We introduce the concept of 'dynamical phase coexistence' to provide a simple solution for a long-standing problem in theoretical ecology, the so-called "savanna problem". The challenge is to understand why in savanna ecosystems trees and grasses coexist in a robust way with large spatio-temporal variability. We propose a simple model, a variant of the Contact Process (CP), which includes two key extra features: varying external (environmental/rainfall) conditions and tree age. The system fluctuates locally between a woodland and a grassland phase, corresponding to the active and absorbing phases of the underlying pure contact process. This leads to a highly variable stable phase characterized by patches of the woodland and grassland phases coexisting dynamically. We show that the mean time to tree extinction under this model increases as a power-law of system size and can be of the order of 10,000,000 years in even moderately sized savannas. Finally, we demonstrate that while local interactions among trees may influence tree spatial distribution and the order of the transition between woodland and grassland phases, they do not affect dynamical coexistence. We expect dynamical coexistence to be relevant in other contexts in physics, biology or the social sciences., Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in Journal of Theoretical Biology