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The amount of ocean protected from fishing and other human impacts has often been used as a metric of conservation progress. However, protection efforts have highly variable outcomes that depend on local conditions, which makes it difficult to quantify what coral reef protection efforts to date have actually achieved at a global scale. Here, we develop a predictive model of how local conditions influence conservation outcomes on ~2,600 coral reef sites across 44 ecoregions, which we used to quantify how much more fish biomass there is on coral reefs compared to a modeled scenario with no protection. Under the assumptions of our model, our study reveals that without existing protection efforts there would be ~10% less fish biomass on coral reefs. Thus, we estimate that coral reef protection efforts have led to approximately 1 in every 10 kg of existing fish biomass., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Fish fecundity scales hyperallometrically with body mass, meaning larger females produce disproportionately more eggs than smaller ones. We explore this relationship beyond the species-level to estimate the "reproductive potential" of 1633 coral reef sites distributed globally. We find that, at the site-level, reproductive potential scales hyperallometrically with assemblage biomass, but with a smaller median exponent than at the species-level. Across all families, modelled reproductive potential is greater in fully protected sites versus fished sites. This difference is most pronounced for the important fisheries family, Serranidae. When comparing a scenario where 30% of sites are randomly fully protected to a current protection scenario, we estimate an increase in the reproductive potential of all families, and particularly for Serranidae. Such results point to the possible ecological benefits of the 30 × 30 global conservation target and showcase management options to promote the sustainability of population replenishment., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are embedded within complex socio-ecological systems. While research has traditionally focused on the direct effects of VBDs on human morbidity and mortality, it is increasingly clear that their impacts are much more pervasive. VBDs are dynamically linked to feedbacks between environmental conditions, vector ecology, disease burden, and societal responses that drive transmission. As a result, VBDs have had profound influence on human history. Mechanisms include: (1) killing or debilitating large numbers of people, with demographic and population-level impacts; (2) differentially affecting populations based on prior history of disease exposure, immunity, and resistance; (3) being weaponised to promote or justify hierarchies of power, colonialism, racism, classism and sexism; (4) catalysing changes in ideas, institutions, infrastructure, technologies and social practices in efforts to control disease outbreaks; and (5) changing human relationships with the land and environment. We use historical and archaeological evidence interpreted through an ecological lens to illustrate how VBDs have shaped society and culture, focusing on case studies from four pertinent VBDs: plague, malaria, yellow fever and trypanosomiasis. By comparing across diseases, time periods and geographies, we highlight the enormous scope and variety of mechanisms by which VBDs have influenced human history., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Coral reefs on remote islands and atolls are less exposed to direct human stressors but are becoming increasingly vulnerable because of their development for geopolitical and military purposes. Here we document dredging and filling activities by countries in the South China Sea, where building new islands and channels on atolls is leading to considerable losses of, and perhaps irreversible damages to, unique coral reef ecosystems. Preventing similar damage across other reefs in the region necessitates the urgent development of cooperative management of disputed territories in the South China Sea. We suggest using the Antarctic Treaty as a positive precedent for such international cooperation.

Comparisons of three sets of surveys in the Ria Formosa Lagoon, Portugal, over a 13 year period (2001-2002, 2008-2009 and 2010-2013) revealed significant population fluctuations in at least one of the two seahorse (Hippocampinae) species living there, and that those fluctuations were potentially associated with habitat changes in the lagoon. After a significant decline between the first two survey periods (2001-2002 v. 2008-2009), long-snouted seahorse Hippocampus guttulatus populations increased significantly between 2008-2009 surveys and new 2010-2013 surveys. There were no significant differences in H. guttulatus populations between the 2001-2002 and 2010-2013 surveys. In contrast, there were no significant differences in short-snouted seahorse Hippocampus hippocampus densities among the 16 sites surveyed throughout the three sampling periods, although the ability to detect any change was hampered by the low densities of this species in all time periods. Fluctuations in H. guttulatus densities were positively correlated with the percentage of holdfast coverage, but with none of the other environmental variables tested. These results highlight the importance of holdfast availability in maintaining stable seahorse populations. While population fluctuations are certainly more promising than a consistent downward decline, such extreme fluctuations observed for seahorses in the Ria Formosa Lagoon could still leave these two species vulnerable to any additional stressors, particularly during low density periods., (© 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

Background: The mTOR inhibitors have improved outcomes for patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) but the duration of benefit is variable. Currently there are no predictive biomarkers for preselecting patients who are more likely to benefit from these agents. We undertook an exploratory translational study evaluating molecular cytogenetic changes in the context of outcomes from treatment with everolimus., Patients and Methods: Ten patients with clear cell mRCC treated with everolimus were enrolled. Pretreatment tissue specimens were analyzed for molecular cytogenetic changes using fluorescence in situ hybridization and progression-free survival (PFS) data were obtained. Gene probes chosen for this analysis were: Von Hippel Lindau, fragile histidine triad, fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR) 1, FGFR3, PDGFβ, PDGFRβ, epidermal growth factor receptor, and myelocytomatosis viral oncogene., Results: Median PFS was 8.75 months. Two patients with the longest PFS (28 months and 23 months) had gain of PDGFβ and PDGFRβ. This was also observed in 3 other patients who had a PFS of 11.5 months, 8 months, and 5.5 months, respectively. Cytogenetic evolution was observed between primary and metastatic specimens., Conclusion: PDGFβ and PDGFRβ gene status might be of relevance to everolimus therapy. Further research evaluating the utility of these potential biomarkers is required., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Artificial marking and tagging techniques have been used to study movement, population dynamics, behaviour, ecology, survival and growth of at least 25 syngnathid species. External necklace-style tags and injection of visible implant elastomer have been the most used techniques, uniquely identifying hundreds of individual syngnathids to study population dynamics, mortality, behaviour, ecology and growth in at least 13 and 12 species, respectively. Only two studies, both on larger syngnathid species, have tested the use of internal or electronic tags. This new case study reveals that dummy tags, weighing up to 6% of individual body mass, have minimal effect on normal ex situ behaviour of the long-snouted seahorse Hippocampus guttulatus, a smaller syngnathid. In paired aquarium trials, tags did not affect movement, holdfast use or general behavioural state, and only had a short-term effect (1 day) on vertical orientation. Tagged H. guttulatus gained more mass during the 5 day trials, a result which warrants further exploration but indicates that tags did not reduce feeding. This study shows promise for using electronic tagging to study H. guttulatus and similarly sized syngnathids in the wild., (© 2011 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)