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Background Updating vaccines is essential for combatting emerging coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) variants. This study assessed the public health and economic impact of a booster dose of an adapted vaccine in the United Kingdom (UK).Methods A Markov-decision tree model estimated the outcomes of vaccination strategies targeting various age and risk groups in the UK. Age-specific data derived from published sources were used. The model estimated case numbers, deaths, hospitalizations, medical costs, and societal costs. Scenario analyses were conducted to explore uncertainty.Results Vaccination targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 years and the high-risk population aged 12–64 years was estimated to avert 701,549 symptomatic cases, 5,599 deaths, 18,086 hospitalizations, 56,326 post-COVID condition cases, and 38,263 lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), translating into direct and societal cost savings of £112,174,054 and £542,758,682, respectively. The estimated economically justifiable price at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY was £43 and £61, respectively, from the payer perspective and £64 and £82, respectively, from the societal perspective. Expanding to additional age groups improved the public health impact.Conclusions Targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 years and those aged 12–64 years at high risk yields public health gains, but expansion to additional age groups provides additional gains.

Abstract Introduction The delivery of COVID-19 vaccines was successful in reducing hospitalizations and mortality. However, emergence of the Omicron variant resulted in increased virus transmissibility. Consequently, booster vaccination programs were initiated to decrease the risk of severe disease and death among vulnerable members of the population. This study aimed to estimate the effects of the booster program and alternative vaccination strategies on morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19 in the UK. Method A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was used to assess the impact of several vaccination strategies on severe outcomes associated with COVID-19, including hospitalizations, mortality, National Health Service (NHS) capacity quantified by hospital general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) bed days, and patient productivity. The model accounted for age-, risk- and immunity-based stratification of the UK population. Outcomes were evaluated over a 48-week time horizon from September 2022 to August 2023 considering the actual UK autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaigns and six counterfactual strategies. Results The model estimated that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign resulted in a reduction of 18,921 hospitalizations and 1463 deaths, compared with a no booster scenario. Utilization of hospital bed days due to COVID-19 decreased after the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. Expanding the booster eligibility criteria and improving uptake improved all outcomes, including averting twice as many ICU admissions, preventing more than 20% additional deaths, and a sevenfold reduction in long COVID, compared with the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. The number of productive days lost was reduced by fivefold indicating that vaccinating a wider population has a beneficial impact on the morbidities associated with COVID-19. Conclusion Our modelling demonstrates that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign reduced COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality. Booster campaigns with alternative eligibility criteria warrant consideration in the UK, given their potential to further reduce morbidity and mortality as future variants emerge.

Abstract Introduction Current antiretroviral therapies (ARTs) have improved outcomes for people living with HIV. However, the requirement to adhere to lifelong daily oral dosing may be challenging for some people living with HIV, leading to suboptimal adherence and therefore reduced treatment effectiveness. Treatment with long-acting (LA) ART may improve adherence and health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of cabotegravir + rilpivirine (CAB+RPV) LA administered every 2 months (Q2M) compared with current ART administered as daily oral single-tablet regimens (STRs) from a Spanish National Healthcare System perspective. Methods A hybrid decision-tree and Markov state-transition model was used with pooled data from three phase III/IIIb trials (FLAIR, ATLAS, and ATLAS-2M) over a lifetime horizon, with health states defined by viral load and CD4+ cell count. Direct costs (in €) were taken from Spanish public sources from 2021 and several deterministic and probabilistic analyses were carried out. An annual 3% discount rate was applied to both costs and utilities. Results Over the lifetime horizon, CAB+RPV LA Q2M was associated with an additional 0.27 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and slightly greater lifetime costs (€4003) versus daily oral ART, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €15,003/QALY, below the commonly accepted €30,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold in Spain. All scenario analyses showed consistent results, and the probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed cost-effectiveness compared with daily oral STRs in 62.4% of simulations, being dominant in 0.3%. Conclusion From the Spanish National Health System perspective, CAB+RPV LA Q2M is a cost-effective alternative compared with the current options of daily oral STR regimens for HIV treatment. Clinical Trials Registration ATLAS, NCT02951052; ATLAS-2M, NCT03299049; FLAIR, NCT02938520.