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Coffee is an important commodity crop in Zimbabwe and many other African countries in terms of its contribution to local and national economies. Coffee production in terms of productivity and quality face severe constraints due to climate change. A study was therefore carried out to understand and quantify the potential impact of climate change on the coffee sector in Zimbabwe using a bioclimatic modelling approach. Current climatically suitable areas were identified and compared with those areas identified to be climatically suitable under projected 2050 climatic conditions. The projected climatic conditions were obtained from climate predictions of two models: CCSM4 model and HadGEM2 model. Coffee production was found to be mostly sensitive to precipitation factors as these were the most important in determining climatic suitability of coffee production in Zimbabwe. The modelling showed that current coffee suitability varies spatially between the four coffee producing districts in Zimbabwe. Chipinge district has the largest area climatically suitable for coffee production followed by Chimanimani district with Mutare district having the smallest. The modelling predicted that there will be a spatial and quantitative change in climatic suitability for coffee production in Zimbabwe by 2050. The greatest changes are projected for Mutare district where over three quarters according to the CCSM4 model and the entire district according to the HadGEM2 model will turn marginal for coffee production. A westward shift in climatic suitability of coffee was observed for Chipinge and Chimanimani district. The models predicted a loss of between 30,000 ha (CCSM4) and 50,000 ha (HadGEM2) in areas climatically suitable for coffee production by 2050 in Zimbabwe. These changes are likely to be driven by changes in the distribution of precipitation received in the coffee areas. The study presents possible adaptation measures that can be adopted by the coffee sector in Zimbabwe and the region to maintain coffee productivity under a changing climate.

A study was conducted to evaluate four common coffee (Coffea arabica) varieties in Zimbabwe for drought tolerance and ability to recover. The plants were subjected to drought stress for 21 and 28 days with evaluation of recovery done 14 days after interruptive irrigation. Coffee varieties were not significantly different in initial fresh and dry biomass before stressing (P>0.05). CR95 had significantly accumulated more (P<0.05)dry root mass (0.8 g) than the rest of the varieties after 21 days of drought stress. SL28 and CR95 had an 8.3% increase in dry biomass while Cat128 did not gain any dry biomass after 21 days of drought stress. CR95 had significantly more (P<0.05) total dry biomass after 21 days and 28 days of drought stress while SL28 was consistently the least in both periods. Cat129 had the highest recovery gains in dry root, dry shoot, and total dry biomass after 21 days and 28 days of drought stress. Initial root biomass was negatively correlated with changes in total fresh and dry biomass of young coffee (r>0.60) after both 21 and 28 days of drought stress, indicating that root biomass may be the most important factor determining drought tolerance in coffee varieties.