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1. Insights from an individual-level model of HIV programmes in southern Africa : HIV testing, ART and resistance

Author

Cambiano, V.

Subjects
610
Abstract

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has transformed HIV infection from a death sentence into a chronic condition. In sub-Saharan Africa, the area most affected by this disease, availability of ART has increased dramatically over the last few years. Nevertheless, many people are still not receiving ART either because they are not aware of being HIV-positive or because they struggle to access ART or to engage in HIV care. It is fundamental to take decisions which maximise the health benefits with the limited resources available. When I was writing this thesis, there were countless discussions regarding whether the recommendation on when to start ART had to be modified to a CD4 count threshold higher than 350 cells/μL, given the compelling evidence that ART reduces substantially the risk of transmission in heterosexual serodifferent couples. In this thesis I evaluated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative ways of increasing the number of adults receiving ART in South Africa: increasing the CD4 count threshold at which a person is eligible to be initiated on ART, or maintaining the eligibility criteria to CD4 count below 350 cells/μL but expanding the number of people who are diagnosed and engaged in care. In particular, I focused on the impact these two alternatives would have on the development and transmission of resistance. To inform the model on the extent to which NNRTI resistance mutations are present in people who have interrupted NNRTI, I conducted an analysis using data from the UK resistance database. In addition, since I found that the most cost-effective strategy was to expand the number of people engaged in HIV care without modifying the CD4 threshold at which a person is eligible to receive ART, I evaluated at which steps in the current leaky cascade of HIV care it was most cost-effective to intervene. Finally, as new evidence regarding the accuracy and acceptability of HIV self-testing came up, I decided to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introducing HIV self-testing in a setting such as Zimbabwe.

Published
2014

2. Predicted effects of the introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

Author

Smith, J, Bansi-Matharu, L, Cambiano, V, Dimitrov, D, Bershteyn, A, Van de Vijver, D, Kripke, K, Revill, P, Boily, M-C, Meyer-Rath, G, Taramusi, I, Lundgren, JD, Van Oosterhout, JJ, Kuritzkes, D, Schaefer, R, Siedner, MJ, Schapiro, J, Delany-Moretlwe, S, Landovitz, RJ, Flexner, C, Jordan, M, Venter, F, Radebe, M, Ripin, D, Jenkins, S, Resar, D, Amole, C, Shahmanesh, M, Gupta, RK, Raizes, E, Johnson, C, Inzaule, S, Shafer, R, Warren, M, Stansfield, S, Paredes, R, Phillips, AN, HIV Modelling Consortium, and Virology

Subjects
Infectious Diseases, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Epidemiology, Virology, Immunology
Abstract

Background: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended by WHO as an additional option for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is concern that its introduction could lead to an increase in integrase-inhibitor resistance undermining treatment programmes that rely on dolutegravir. We aimed to project the health benefits and risks of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in settings in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: With HIV Synthesis, an individual-based HIV model, we simulated 1000 setting-scenarios reflecting both variability and uncertainty about HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and compared outcomes for each with and without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction. PrEP use is assumed to be risk-informed and to be used only in 3-month periods (the time step for the model) when having condomless sex. We consider three groups at risk of integrase-inhibitor resistance emergence: people who start cabotegravir-PrEP after (unknowingly) being infected with HIV, those who seroconvert while on PrEP, and those with HIV who have residual cabotegravir drugs concentrations during the early tail period after recently stopping PrEP. We projected the outcomes of policies of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction and of no introduction in 2022 across 50 years. In 50% of setting-scenarios we considered that more sensitive nucleic-acid-based HIV diagnostic testing (NAT), rather than regular antibody-based HIV rapid testing, might be used to reduce resistance risk. For cost-effectiveness analysis we assumed in our base case a cost of cabotegravir-PrEP drug to be similar to oral PrEP, resulting in a total annual cost of USD$144 per year ($114 per year and $264 per year considered in sensitivity analyses), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life years averted, and a discount rate of 3% per year. Findings: Reflecting our assumptions on the appeal of cabotegravir-PrEP, its introduction is predicted to lead to a substantial increase in PrEP use with approximately 2·6% of the adult population (and 46% of those with a current indication for PrEP) receiving PrEP compared with 1·5% (28%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction across 20 years. As a result, HIV incidence is expected to be lower by 29% (90% range across setting-scenarios 6–52%) across the same period compared with no introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP. In people initiating antiretroviral therapy, the proportion with integrase-inhibitor resistance after 20 years is projected to be 1·7% (0–6·4%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction but 13·1% (4·1–30·9%) with. Cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is predicted to lower the proportion of all people on antiretroviral therapy with viral loads less than 1000 copies per mL by 0·9% (–2·5% to 0·3%) at 20 years. For an adult population of 10 million an overall decrease in number of AIDS deaths of about 4540 per year (–13 000 to –300) across 50 years is predicted, with little discernible benefit with NAT when compared with standard antibody-based rapid testing. AIDS deaths are predicted to be averted with cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in 99% of setting-scenarios. Across the 50-year time horizon, overall HIV programme costs are predicted to be similar regardless of whether cabotegravir-PrEP is introduced (total mean discounted annual HIV programme costs per year across 50 years is $151·3 million vs $150·7 million), assuming the use of standard antibody testing. With antibody-based rapid HIV testing, the introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective under an assumed threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life year averted in 82% of setting-scenarios at the cost of $144 per year, in 52% at $264, and in 87% at $114. Interpretation: Despite leading to increases in integrase-inhibitor drug resistance, cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is likely to reduce AIDS deaths in addition to HIV incidence. Long-acting cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective if delivered at similar cost to oral PrEP with antibody-based rapid HIV testing. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

Published
2023

8. Risk of HIV transmission through condomless sex in serodifferent gay couples with the HIV-positive partner taking suppressive antiretroviral therapy (PARTNER): final results of a multicentre, prospective, observational study

Author

Rodger, A. J., Cambiano, V., Phillips, A. N., Bruun, T., Raben, D., Lundgren, J., Vernazza, P., Collins, S., Degen, O., Corbelli, G. M., Estrada, V., Geretti, A. M., Beloukas, A., Coll, P., Antinori, A., Nwokolo, N., Rieger, A., Prins, J. M., Blaxhult, A., Weber, R., Van Eeden, A., Brockmeyer, N. H., Clarke, A., del Romero Guerrero, J., Raffi, F., Bogner, J. R., Wandeler, G., Gerstoft, J., Gutierrez, F., Brinkman, K., Kitchen, M., Ostergaard, L., Leon, A., Ristola, M., Jessen, H., Stellbrink, H. -J., Cobarsi, P., Nieto, A., Meulbroek, M., Carrillo, A., Saz, J., Guerrero, J. D. R., Garcia, M. V., Masia, M., Robledano, C., Leal, L., Redondo, E. G., Estrada, V. P., Marquez, R., Sandoval, R., Viciana, P., Espinosa, N., Lopez-Cortes, L., Podzamczer, D., Tiraboschi, J., Morenilla, S., Antela, A., Losada, E., Sewell, J., Kirk, S., Knott, A., Fernandez, T., Gompels, M., Jennings, L., Ward, L., Fox, J., Lwanga, J., Lee, M., Gilson, R., Leen, C., Morris, S., Clutterbuck, D., Brady, M., Asboe, D., Fedele, S., Fidler, S., Brockmeyer, N., Potthoff, A., Skaletz-Rorowski, A., Bogner, J., Seybold, U., Roider, J., Jessen, A., Ruzicic, S., Kummerle, T., Lehmann, C., Bartel, S., Hufner, A., Rockstroh, J., Mohrmann, K., Boesecke, C., Krznaric, I., Ingiliz, P., Grube, C., Braun, D., Gunthard, H., Furrer, H., Rauch, A., Schmid, P., Rasi, M., Borso, D., Stratmann, M., Caviezel, O., Stoeckle, M., Battegay, M., Tarr, P., Christinet, V., Jouinot, F., Isambert, C., Bernasconi, E., Bernasconi, B., Jensen, L. P., Bayer, A. A., Yehdego, Y., Bach, A., Handberg, P., Kronborg, G., Pedersen, S. S., Bulow, N., Ramskover, B., Debnam, O., Sutinen, J., Ask, R., Hildingsson-Lundh, B., Westling, K., Frisen, E. -M., Cortney, G., O'Dea, S., De Wit, S., Necsoi, C., Vandekerckhove, L., Goffard, J. -C., Henrard, S., Prins, J., Nobel, H. -H., Weijsenfeld, A., Elsenburg, L., Vos, D., Hoijenga, I., Gisolf, E., Van Bentum, P., Verhagen, D., Billaud, E., Ohayon, M., Gosset, D., Fior, A., Pialoux, G., Thibaut, P., Chas, J., Leclercq, V., Pechenot, V., Coquelin, V., Pradier, C., Breaud, S., Touzeau-Romer, V., Kitchen - Maria Geit, M., Sarcletti, M., Gisinger, M., Oellinger, A., Menichetti, S., Bini, T., Mussini, C., Meschiari, M., Di Biagio, A., Taramasso, L., Celesia, B. M., Gussio, M., Janeiro, N., AII - Infectious diseases, Infectious diseases, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding, Department of Medicine, University Management, Clinicum, and HUS Inflammation Center

Subjects
Male, SERODISCORDANT COUPLES, HIV Infections, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Condoms, Sexual and Gender Minorities, 0302 clinical medicine, Unsafe Sex, Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active, Epidemiology, INFECTION, HIV Seropositivity, Medicine and Health Sciences, 030212 general & internal medicine, Homosexuality, Prospective Studies, Prospective cohort study, 610 Medicine & health, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, media_common, Transmission (medicine), virus diseases, General Medicine, Middle Aged, Viral Load, Sexual Partners, PARTNER Study Group, Viral load, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Anti-HIV Agents, media_common.quotation_subject, education, Antiretroviral Therapy, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, Medicine, General & Internal, General & Internal Medicine, medicine, Humans, Highly Active, Seroconversion, SEMEN, Homosexuality, Male, Science & Technology, business.industry, HIV Seropositivity/transmission, HIV, PREVENTION, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use, BLOOD-PLASMA, RNA, Observational study, HETEROSEXUAL TRANSMISSION, business, Demography
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The level of evidence for HIV transmission risk through condomless sex in serodifferent gay couples with the HIV-positive partner taking virally suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) is limited compared with the evidence available for transmission risk in heterosexual couples. The aim of the second phase of the PARTNER study (PARTNER2) was to provide precise estimates of transmission risk in gay serodifferent partnerships.METHODS: The PARTNER study was a prospective observational study done at 75 sites in 14 European countries. The first phase of the study (PARTNER1; Sept 15, 2010, to May 31, 2014) recruited and followed up both heterosexual and gay serodifferent couples (HIV-positive partner taking suppressive ART) who reported condomless sex, whereas the PARTNER2 extension (to April 30, 2018) recruited and followed up gay couples only. At study visits, data collection included sexual behaviour questionnaires, HIV testing (HIV-negative partner), and HIV-1 viral load testing (HIV-positive partner). If a seroconversion occurred in the HIV-negative partner, anonymised phylogenetic analysis was done to compare HIV-1 pol and env sequences in both partners to identify linked transmissions. Couple-years of follow-up were eligible for inclusion if condomless sex was reported, use of pre-exposure prophylaxis or post-exposure prophylaxis was not reported by the HIV-negative partner, and the HIV-positive partner was virally suppressed (plasma HIV-1 RNA FINDINGS: Between Sept 15, 2010, and July 31, 2017, 972 gay couples were enrolled, of which 782 provided 1593 eligible couple-years of follow-up with a median follow-up of 2·0 years (IQR 1·1-3·5). At baseline, median age for HIV-positive partners was 40 years (IQR 33-46) and couples reported condomless sex for a median of 1·0 years (IQR 0·4-2·9). During eligible couple-years of follow-up, couples reported condomless anal sex a total of 76 088 times. 288 (37%) of 777 HIV-negative men reported condomless sex with other partners. 15 new HIV infections occurred during eligible couple-years of follow-up, but none were phylogenetically linked within-couple transmissions, resulting in an HIV transmission rate of zero (upper 95% CI 0·23 per 100 couple-years of follow-up).INTERPRETATION: Our results provide a similar level of evidence on viral suppression and HIV transmission risk for gay men to that previously generated for heterosexual couples and suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in gay couples through condomless sex when HIV viral load is suppressed is effectively zero. Our findings support the message of the U=U (undetectable equals untransmittable) campaign, and the benefits of early testing and treatment for HIV.FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Published
2019
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9. Risk of HIV transmission through condomless sex in serodifferent gay couples with the HIV-positive partner taking suppressive antiretroviral therapy (PARTNER): final results of a multicentre, prospective, observational study

Author

Cambiano, V, Bruun, T, Collins, S, Corbelli, GM, Geretti, AM, Beloukas, A, Raben, D, Prins, JM, Van Eeden, A, Guerrero, JD, Bogner, JR, Phillips, AN, Lundgren, J, Viciana, P, Espinosa, N, Lopez-Cortes, L, Gutierrez, F, Masia, M, Robledano, C, Coll, P, Cobarsi, P, Nieto, A, Podzamczer, D, Tiraboschi, J, Morenilla, S, Meulbroek, M, Carrillo, A, Saz, J, Estrada, V, Marquez, R, Sandoval, R, Antela, A, Losada, E, Leon, A, Leal, L, Redondo, EG, Garcia, MV, Asboe, D, Fedele, S, Nwokolo, N, Gilson, R, Gompels, M, Jennings, L, Ward, L, Brady, M, Clarke, A, Kirk, S, Knott, A, Fox, J, Lwanga, J, Lee, M, Leen, C, Morris, S, Clutterbuck, D, Fidler, S, Rodger, AJ, Fernandez, T, Sewell, J, Degen, O, Bartel, S, Hufner, A, Kummerle, T, Lehmann, C, Bogner, J, Seybold, U, Roider, J, Brockmeyer, NH, Potthoff, A, Skaletz-Rorowski, A, Stellbrink, HJ, Jessen, H, Jessen, A, Ruzicic, S, Rockstroh, J, Mohrmann, K, Boesecke, C, Krznaric, I, Ingiliz, P, Prins, J, Nobel, HE, Weijsenfeld, A, Brinkman, K, Vos, D, Hoijenga, I, Verhagen, D, van Eeden, A, Elsenburg, L, Gisolf, E, van Bentum, P, Weber, R, Grube, C, Braun, D, Wandeler, G, Furrer, H, Rauch, A, Stoeckle, M, Tarr, P, Battegay, M, Vernazza, P, Schmid, P, Rasi, M, Bernasconi, E, Bernasconi, B, Christinet, V, Jouinot, F, Isambert, C, Borso, D, Stratmann, M, Caviezel, O, Bini, T, Antinori, A, Menichetti, S, Celesia, BM, Gussio, M, Mussini, C, Meschiari, M, Di Biagio, A, Taramasso, L, Rieger, A, Touzeau-Romer, V, Kitchen, M, Sarcletti, M, Gisinger, M, Oelinger, A, Geit, M, Gerstoft, J, Jensen, LP, Bayer, AA, Handberg, P, Kronborg, G, Ostergaard, L, Pedersen, SS, Bulow, N, Ramskover, B, Pradier, C, Breaud, S, Raffi, F, Billaud, E, Ohayon, M, Gosset, D, Fior, A, Pialoux, G, Thibaut, P, Chas, J, Leclercq, V, Pechenot, V, Coquelin, V, Westling, K, Frisen, EM, Blaxhult, A, Ask, R, Hildingsson-Lundh, B, Ristola, M, Debnam, O, Sutinen, J, De Wit, S, Necsoi, C, Vandekerckhove, L, Goffard, JC, Henrard, S, Janeiro, N, Cortney, G, and O'Dea, S

Abstract

Background The level of evidence for HIV transmission risk through condomless sex in serodifferent gay couples with the HIV-positive partner taking virally suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) is limited compared with the evidence available for transmission risk in heterosexual couples. The aim of the second phase of the PARTNER study (PARTNER2) was to provide precise estimates of transmission risk in gay serodifferent partnerships. Methods The PARTNER study was a prospective observational study done at 75 sites in 14 European countries. The first phase of the study (PARTNER1; Sept 15, 2010, to May 31, 2014) recruited and followed up both heterosexual and gay serodifferent couples (HIV-positive partner taking suppressive ART) who reported condomless sex, whereas the PARTNER2 extension (to April 30, 2018) recruited and followed up gay couples only. At study visits, data collection included sexual behaviour questionnaires, HIV testing (HIV-negative partner), and HIV-1 viral load testing (HIV-positive partner). If a seroconversion occurred in the HIV-negative partner, anonymised phylogenetic analysis was done to compare HIV-1 pol and env sequences in both partners to identify linked transmissions. Couple-years of follow-up were eligible for inclusion if condomless sex was reported, use of pre-exposure prophylaxis or post-exposure prophylaxis was not reported by the HIV-negative partner, and the HIV-positive partner was virally suppressed (plasma HIV-1 RNA < 200 copies per mL) at the most recent visit (within the past year). Incidence rate of HIV transmission was calculated as the number of phylogenetically linked HIV infections that occurred during eligible couple-years of follow-up divided by eligible couple-years of follow-up. Two-sided 95% CIs for the incidence rate of transmission were calculated using exact Poisson methods. Findings Between Sept 15, 2010, and July 31, 2017, 972 gay couples were enrolled, of which 782 provided 1593 eligible couple-years of follow-up with a median follow-up of 2.0 years (IQR 1.1-3.5). At baseline, median age for HIV-positive partners was 40 years (IQR 33-46) and couples reported condomless sex for a median of 1.0 years (IQR 0.4-2.9). During eligible couple-years of follow-up, couples reported condomless anal sex a total of 76 088 times. 288 (37%) of 777 HIV-negative men reported condomless sex with other partners. 15 new HIV infections occurred during eligible couple-years of follow-up, but none were phylogenetically linked within-couple transmissions, resulting in an HIV transmission rate of zero (upper 95% CI 0.23 per 100 couple-years of follow-up). Interpretation Our results provide a similar level of evidence on viral suppression and HIV transmission risk for gay men to that previously generated for heterosexual couples and suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in gay couples through condomless sex when HIV viral load is suppressed is effectively zero. Our findings support the message of the U=U (undetectable equals untransmittable) campaign, and the benefits of early testing and treatment for HIV. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2019

10. Strengthening the scale-up and uptake of effective interventions for sex workers for population impact in Zimbabwe

Author

Cowan, F.M. (Frances M), Chabata, S.T. (Sungai T), Musemburi, S. (Sithembile), Fearon, E. (Elizabeth), Davey, C. (Calum), Ndori-Mharadze, T. (Tendayi), Bansi-Matharu, L. (Loveleen), Cambiano, V. (Valentina), Steen, R. (Richard), Busza, J. (Joanna), Yekeye, R. (Raymond), Mugurungi, O. (Owen), Hargreaves, J.R. (James R), Phillips, A.N. (Andrew N), Cowan, F.M. (Frances M), Chabata, S.T. (Sungai T), Musemburi, S. (Sithembile), Fearon, E. (Elizabeth), Davey, C. (Calum), Ndori-Mharadze, T. (Tendayi), Bansi-Matharu, L. (Loveleen), Cambiano, V. (Valentina), Steen, R. (Richard), Busza, J. (Joanna), Yekeye, R. (Raymond), Mugurungi, O. (Owen), Hargreaves, J.R. (James R), and Phillips, A.N. (Andrew N)

Abstract

Introduction: UNAIDS’ goal of ending AIDS by 2030 is unreachable without better targeting of testing, prevention and care. Female sex workers (FSW) in Zimbabwe are at high risk of HIV acquisition and transmission. Here, we report on collated programme and research data from Zimbabwe's national sex work programme. We also assess the potential for wider population impact of FSW programmes by modelling the impact on HIV incidence of eliminating transmission through FSW (i.e. calcu

Published
2019
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12. Cost-effectiveness of public-health policy options in the presence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study

Author

Phillips, A. (Andrew), Cambiano, V. (Valentina), Nakagawa, F. (Fumiyo), Revill, P. (Paul), Jordan, M.R. (Michael), Hallett, T.B. (Timothy), Doherty, M.C. (Meg), Luca, A. (Andrea) de, Lundgren, J.D. (Jens D.), Mhangara, M. (Mutsa), Apollo, T. (Tsitsi), Mellors, J.W. (John W.), Nichols, B.E. (Brooke), Parikh, U. (Urvi), Pillay, D. (Deenan), Rinke de Wit, T.F. (Tobias), Sigaloff, K.C. (Kim), Havlir, D. (Diane), Kuritzkes, D.R. (Daniel), Pozniak, A. (Anton), Vijver, D.A.M.C. (David) van de, Vitoria, M. (Marco), Wainberg, M.A. (Mark A.), Raizes, E. (Elliot), Bertagnolio, S. (Silvia), Phillips, A. (Andrew), Cambiano, V. (Valentina), Nakagawa, F. (Fumiyo), Revill, P. (Paul), Jordan, M.R. (Michael), Hallett, T.B. (Timothy), Doherty, M.C. (Meg), Luca, A. (Andrea) de, Lundgren, J.D. (Jens D.), Mhangara, M. (Mutsa), Apollo, T. (Tsitsi), Mellors, J.W. (John W.), Nichols, B.E. (Brooke), Parikh, U. (Urvi), Pillay, D. (Deenan), Rinke de Wit, T.F. (Tobias), Sigaloff, K.C. (Kim), Havlir, D. (Diane), Kuritzkes, D.R. (Daniel), Pozniak, A. (Anton), Vijver, D.A.M.C. (David) van de, Vitoria, M. (Marco), Wainberg, M.A. (Mark A.), Raizes, E. (Elliot), and Bertagnolio, S. (Silvia)

Abstract

Background: There is concern over increasing prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance in people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative public health responses in countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance to NNRTIs is high. Methods: The HIV Synthesis Model is an individual-based simulation model of sexual HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART in adults, which is based on extensive published data sources and considers specific drugs and resistance mutations. We used this model to generate multiple setting scenarios mimicking those in sub-Saharan Africa and considered the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in 2017. We then compared effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative policy options. We took a 20 year time horizon, used a cost effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted, and discounted DALYs and costs at 3% per year.

Published
2018
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13. Cost-effectiveness of public-health policy options in the presence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

Author

Phillips, AN, Cambiano, V, Nakagawa, F, Revill, P, Jordan, MR, Hallett, TB, Doherty, M, Luca, A, Lundgren, JD, Mhangara, M, Apollo, T, Mellors, J, Nichols, B, Parikh, U, Pillay, D, de Wit, TR, Sigaloff, K, Havlir, D, Kuritzkes, DR, Pozniak, A, van de Vijver, David, Vitoria, M, Wainberg, MA, Raizes, E, Bertagnolio, S, Phillips, AN, Cambiano, V, Nakagawa, F, Revill, P, Jordan, MR, Hallett, TB, Doherty, M, Luca, A, Lundgren, JD, Mhangara, M, Apollo, T, Mellors, J, Nichols, B, Parikh, U, Pillay, D, de Wit, TR, Sigaloff, K, Havlir, D, Kuritzkes, DR, Pozniak, A, van de Vijver, David, Vitoria, M, Wainberg, MA, Raizes, E, and Bertagnolio, S

Published
2018

14. Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study

Author

Mocroft, Amanda, Lundgren, Jens D., Ross, Michael, Law, Matthew, Reiss, Peter, Kirk, Ole, Smith, Colette, Wentworth, Deborah, Neuhaus, Jacqueline, Fux, Christoph A., Moranne, Olivier, Morlat, Phillipe, Johnson, Margaret A., Ryom, Lene, Lundgren, J. D., Powderly, B., Shortman, N., Moecklinghoff, C., Reilly, G., Franquet, X., Sabin, C. A., Phillips, A., Kirk, O., Reiss, P., Weber, R., Pradier, C., Law, M., d'Arminio Monforte, A., Dabis, F., El-Sadr, W. M., De Wit, S., Ryom, L., Kamara, D., Smith, C., Mocroft, A., Tverland, J., Mansfeld, M., Nielsen, J., Raben, D., Salbøl Brandt, R., Rickenbach, M., Fanti, I., Krum, E., Hillebregt, M., Geffard, S., Sundström, A., Delforge, M., Fontas, E., Torres, F., Mcmanus, H., Wright, S., Kjær, J., Sjøl, A., Meidahl, P., Helweg-Larsen, J., Schmidt Iversen, J., Ross, M., Fux, C. A., Morlat, P., Moranne, O., Kesselring, A. M., Kamara, D. A., Friis-Møller, N., Kowalska, J., Sabin, C., Bruyand, M., Bower, M., Fätkenheuer, G., Donald, A., Grulich, A., Prins, J. M., Kuijpers, T. W., Scherpbier, H. J., van der Meer, J. T. M., Wit, F. W. M. N., Godfried, M. H., van der Poll, T., Nellen, F. J. B., Geerlings, S. E., van Vugt, M., Pajkrt, D., Bos, J. C., Wiersinga, W. J., van der Valk, M., Goorhuis, A., Hovius, J. W., van Eden, J., Henderiks, A., van Hes, A. M. H., Mutschelknauss, M., Nobel, H. E., Pijnappel, F. J. J., Westerman, A. M., Jurriaans, S., Back, N. K. T., Zaaijer, H. L., Berkhout, B., Cornelissen, M. T. E., Schinkel, C. J., Thomas, X. V., van den Berge, M., Stegeman, A., Baas, S., Hage de Looff, L., Versteeg, D., Pronk, M. J. H., Ammerlaan, H. S. M., Korsten-Vorstermans, E. M. H. M., de Munnik, E. S., Jansz, A. R., Tjhie, J., Wegdam, M. C. A., Deiman, B., Scharnhorst, V., van der Plas, A., Weijsenfeld, A. M., van der Ende, M. E., de Vries-Sluijs, T. E. M. S., C. M. van Gorp, E., Schurink, C. A. M., Nouwen, J. L., Verbon, A., Rijnders, B. J. A., Bax, H. I., Hassing, R. J., van der Feltz, M., Bassant, N., van Beek, J. E. A., Vriesde, M., van Zonneveld, L. M., de Oude-Lubbers, A., van den Berg-Cameron, H. J., Bruinsma-Broekman, F. B., de Groot, J., de Zeeuw- de Man, M., Broekhoven-Kruijne, M. J., Schutten, M., Osterhaus, A. D. M. E., Boucher, C. A. B., Driessen, G. J. A., van Rossum, A. M. C., van der Knaap, L. C., Visser, E., Branger, J., H. M. Duijf-van de Ven, C. J., Schippers, E. F., van Nieuwkoop, C., Brimicombe, R. W., van IJperen, J. M., van der Hut, G., Franck, P. F. H., van Eeden, A., Brokking, W., Groot, M., Damen, M., Kwa, I. S., Groeneveld, P. H. P., Bouwhuis, J. W., van den Berg, J. F., van Hulzen, A. G. W., van der Bliek, G. L., Bor, P. C. J., Bloembergen, P., Wolfhagen, M. J. H. M., Ruijs, G. J. H. M., van Lelyveld, S. F. L., Soetekouw, R., Hulshoff, N., van der Prijt, L. M. M., Schoemaker, M., Bermon, N., van der Reijden, W. A., Jansen, R., Herpers, B. L., Veenendaal, D., Kroon, F. P., Arend, S. M., de Boer, M. G. J., Bauer, M. P., Jolink, H., Vollaard, A. M., Dorama, W., Moons, C., Claas, E. C. J., Kroes, A. C. M., den Hollander, J. G., Pogany, K., Kastelijns, M., Smit, J. V., Smit, E., Bezemer, M., van Niekerk, T., Pontesilli, O., Lowe, S. H., Oude Lashof, A., Posthouwer, D., Ackens, R. P., Schippers, J., Vergoossen, R., Weijenberg Maes, B., Savelkoul, P. H. M., Loo, I. H., Weijer, S., El Moussaoui, R., Heitmuller, M., Kortmann, W., van Twillert, G., Cohen Stuart, J. W. T., Diederen, B. M. W., Pronk, D., van Truijen-Oud, F. A., Leyten, E. M. S., Gelinck, L. B. S., van Hartingsveld, A., Meerkerk, C., Wildenbeest, G. S., Mutsaers, J. A. E. M., Jansen, C. L., van Vonderen, M. G. A., van Houte, D. P. F., Dijkstra, K., Faber, S., Weel, J., Kootstra, G. J., Delsing, C. E., van der Burg-van de Plas, M., Heins, H., Lucas, E., Brinkman, K., Frissen, P. H. J., Blok, W. L., Schouten, W. E. M., Bosma, A. S., Brouwer, C. J., Geerders, G. F., Hoeksema, K., Kleene, M. J., van der Meché, I. B., Toonen, A. J. M., Wijnands, S., van Ogtrop, M. L., Koopmans, P. P., Keuter, M., van der Ven, A. J. A. M., ter Hofstede, H. J. M., Dofferhoff, A. S. M., van Crevel, R., Albers, M., Bosch, M. E. W., Grintjes-Huisman, K. J. T., Zomer, B. J., Stelma, F. F., Burger, D., Richter, C., van der Berg, J. P., Gisolf, E. H., ter Beest, G., van Bentum, P. H. M., Langebeek, N., Tiemessen, R., Swanink, C. M. A., Veenstra, J., Lettinga, K. D., Spelbrink, M., Sulman, H., Witte, E., Peerbooms, P. G. H., Mulder, J. W., Vrouenraets, S. M. E., Lauw, F. N., van Broekhuizen, M. C., Paap, H., Vlasblom, D. J., Oudmaijer Sanders, E., Smits, P. H. M., Rosingh, A. W., Verhagen, D. W. M., Geilings, J., van Kasteren, M. E. E., Brouwer, A. E., de Kruijf-van de Wiel, B. A. F. M., Kuipers, M., Santegoets, R. M. W. J., van der Ven, B., Marcelis, J. H., G. M. Buiting, A., Kabel, P. J., Bierman, W. F. W., Sprenger, H. G., Scholvinck, E. H., van Assen, S., Wilting, K. R., Stienstra, Y., de Groot-de Jonge, H., van der Meulen, P. A., de Weerd, D. A., Niesters, H. G. M., Riezebos-Brilman, A., van Leer-Buter, C. C., Hoepelman, A. I. M., Schneider, M. M. E., Mudrikova, T., Ellerbroek, P. M., Oosterheert, J. J., Arends, J. E., Barth, R. E., Wassenberg, M. W. M., van Elst-Laurijssen, D. H. M., Laan, L. M., van Oers-Hazelzet, E. E. B., Patist, J., Vervoort, S., Nieuwenhuis, H. E., Frauenfelder, R., Schuurman, R., Verduyn-Lunel, F., Wensing, A. M. J., Peters, E. J. G., van Agtmael, M. A., Perenboom, R. M., Bomers, M., de Vocht, J., Elsenburg, L. J. M., Pettersson, A. M., Vandenbroucke-Grauls, C. M. J. E., Ang, C. W., Geelen, S. P. M., Wolfs, T. F. W., Bont, L. J., Nauta, N., Bezemer, D. O., Gras, L., van Sighem, A. I., Smit, C., Zaheri, S., Kimmel, V., Tong, Y., Lascaris, B., van den Boogaard, R., Hoekstra, P., de Lang, A., Berkhout, M., Grivell, S., Jansen, A., de Groot, L., van den Akker, M., Bergsma, D., Lodewijk, C., Meijering, R., Peeck, B., Raethke, M., Ree, C., Regtop, R., Ruijs, Y., Schoorl, M., Tuijn, E., Veenenberg, L., Woudstra, T., Bakker, Y., de Jong, A., Broekhoven, M., Claessen, E., Rademaker, M. J., Munjishvili, L., Kruijne, E., Tuk, B., Bonnet, F., Dupon, M., Chêne, G., Breilh, D., Fleury, H., Malvy, D., Mercié, P., Pellegrin, I., Neau, D., Pellegrin, J. L., Bouchet, S., Gaborieau, V., Lacoste, D., Tchamgoué, S., Thiébaut, R., Lawson-Ayayi, S., Wittkop, L., Bernard, N., Hessamfar, M., Vandenhende, M. A., Dauchy, F. A., Dutronc, H., Longy-Boursier, M., Duffau, P., Roger Schmeltz, J., Pistone, T., Receveur, M. C., Cazanave, C., Ochoa, A., Vareil, M. O., Viallard, J. F., Greib, C., Lazaro, E., Lafon, M. E., Reigadas, S., Trimoulet, P., Molimard, M., Titier, K., Moreau, J. F., Haramburu, F., Miremont-Salamé, G., Dupont, A., Gerard, Y., Caunègre, L., André, K., Bonnal, F., Farbos, S., Gemain, M. C., Ceccaldi, J., De Witte, S., Courtault, C., Monlun, E., Lataste, P., Meraud, J. P., Chossat, I., Blaizeau, M. J., Conte, V., Decoin, M., Delaune, J., Delveaux, S., Diarra, F., D'Ivernois, C., Frosch, A., Hannapier, C., Lenaud, E., Leleux, O., Le Marec, F., Leray, J., Louis, I., Palmer, G., Pougetoux, A., Sicard, X., Touchard, D., Uwamaliya-Nziyumvira, B., Petoumenos, K., Bendall, C., Moore, R., Edwards, S., Hoy, J., Watson, K., Roth, N., Nicholson, J., Bloch, M., Franic, T., Baker, D., Vale, R., Carr, A., Cooper, D., Chuah, J., Ngieng, M., Nolan, D., Skett, J., Calvo, G., Mateu, S., Domingo, P., Sambeat, M. A., Gatell, J., Del Cacho, E., Cadafalch, J., Fuster, M., Codina, C., Sirera, G., Vaqué, A., Dewit, S., Clumeck, N., Necsoi, C., Gennotte, A. F., Gerard, M., Kabeya, K., Konopnicki, D., Libois, A., Martin, C., Payen, M. C., Semaille, P., Van Laethem, Y., Neaton, J., Bartsch, G., Thompson, G., Wentworth, D., Luskin-Hawk, R., Telzak, E., Abrams, D. I., Cohn, D., Markowitz, N., Arduino, R., Mushatt, D., Friedland, G., Perez, G., Tedaldi, E., Fisher, E., Gordin, F., Crane, L. R., Sampson, J., Baxter, J., Lundgren, J., Cozzi-Lepri, A., Grint, D., Podlekareva, D., Peters, L., Reekie, J., Fischer, A. H., Losso, M., Elias, C., Vetter, N., Zangerle, R., Karpov, I., Vassilenko, A., Mitsura, V. M., Suetnov, O., Colebunders, R., Vandekerckhove, L., Hadziosmanovic, V., Kostov, K., Begovac, J., Machala, L., Jilich, D., Sedlacek, D., Kronborg, G., Benfield, T., Larsen, M., Gerstoft, J., Katzenstein, T., Hansen, A. -B. E., Skinhøj, P., Pedersen, C., Ostergaard, L., Zilmer, K., Smidt, J., Ristola, M., Katlama, C., Viard, J. -P., Girard, P. -M., Livrozet, J. M., Vanhems, P., Rockstroh, J., Schmidt, R., van Lunzen, J., Degen, O., Stellbrink, H. J., Staszewski, S., Bickel, M., Kosmidis, J., Gargalianos, P., Xylomenos, G., Perdios, J., Panos, G., Filandras, A., Karabatsaki, E., Sambatakou, H., Banhegyi, D., Mulcahy, F., Yust, I., Turner, D., Burke, M., Pollack, S., Hassoun, G., Maayan, S., Vella, S., Esposito, R., Mazeu, I., Mussini, C., Arici, C., Pristera, R., Mazzotta, F., Gabbuti, A., Vullo, V., Lichtner, M., Chirianni, A., Montesarchio, E., Gargiulo, M., Antonucci, G., Testa, A., Narciso, P., Vlassi, C., Zaccarelli, M., Lazzarin, A., Castagna, A., Gianotti, N., Galli, M., Ridolfo, A., d’Arminio Monforte, A., Rozentale, B., Zeltina, I., Chaplinskas, S., Hemmer, R., Staub, T., Ormaasen, V., Maeland, A., Bruun, J., Knysz, B., Gasiorowski, J., Horban, A., Bakowska, E., Grzeszczuk, A., Flisiak, R., Boron-Kaczmarska, A., Pynka, M., Parczewski, M., Beniowski, M., Mularska, E., Trocha, H., Jablonowska, E., Malolepsza, E., Wojcik, K., Antunes, F., Doroana, M., Caldeira, L., Mansinho, K., Maltez, F., Duiculescu, D., Rakhmanova, A., Zakharova, N., Buzunova, S., Jevtovic, D., Mokráš, M., Staneková, D., Tomazic, J., González-Lahoz, J., Soriano, V., Labarga, P., Medrano, J., Moreno, S., Rodriguez, J. M., Clotet, B., Jou, A., Paredes, R., Tural, C., Puig, J., Bravo, I., Gatell, J. M., Miró, J. M., Gutierrez, M., Mateo, G., Karlsson, A., Flamholc, L., Ledergerber, B., Francioli, P., Cavassini, M., Hirschel, B., Boffi, E., Furrer, H., Battegay, M., Elzi, L., Kravchenko, E., Chentsova, N., Frolov, V., Kutsyna, G., Servitskiy, S., Krasnov, M., Barton, S., Johnson, A. M., Mercey, D., Johnson, M. A., Murphy, M., Weber, J., Scullard, G., Fisher, M., Leen, C., Morfeldt, L., Thulin, G., Åkerlund, B., Koppel, K., Håkangård, C., Moroni, M., Angarano, G., Antinori, A., Armignacco, O., Castelli, F., Cauda, R., Di Perri, G., Iardino, R., Ippolito, G., Perno, C. F., von Schloesser, F., Viale, P., Ceccherini-Silberstein, F., Girardi, E., Lo Caputo, S., Puoti, M., Andreoni, M., Ammassari, A., Balotta, C., Bonfanti, P., Bonora, S., Borderi, M., Capobianchi, R., Ceccherini- Silberstein, F., Cingolani, A., Cinque, P., De Luca, A., Di Biagio, A., Gori, A., Guaraldi, G., Lapadula, G., Madeddu, G., Maggiolo, F., Marchetti, G., Marcotullio, S., Monno, L., Quiros Roldan, E., Rusconi, S., Cicconi, P., Formenti, T., Galli, L., Lorenzini, P., Giacometti, A., Costantini, A., Santoro, C., Suardi, C., Vanino, E., Verucchi, G., Minardi, C., Quirino, T., Abeli, C., Manconi, P. E., Piano, P., Vecchiet, J., Falasca, K., Sighinolfi, L., Segala, D., Cassola, G., Viscoli, G., Alessandrini, A., Piscopo, R., Mazzarello, G., Mastroianni, C., Belvisi, V., Caramma, I., Castelli, A. P., Rizzardini, G., Ridolfo, A. L., Piolini, R., Salpietro, S., Carenzi, L., Moioli, M. C., Puzzolante, C., Abrescia, N., Guida, M. G., Onofrio, M., Baldelli, F., Francisci, D., Parruti, G., Ursini, T., Magnani, G., Ursitti, M. A., D’Avino, A., Gallo, L., Nicastri, E., Acinapura, R., Capozzi, M., Libertone, R., Tebano, G., Cattelan, A., Mura, M. S., Caramello, P., Orofino, G. C., Sciandra, M., Pellizzer, G., Manfrin, V., Dollet, K., Caissotti, C., Dellamonica, P., Roger, P. M., Bernard, E., Cua, E., De Salvador-Guillouet, F., Durant, J., Ferrando, S., Dunais, B., Mondain-Miton, V., Perbost, I., Prouvost-Keller, B., Pugliese, P., Naqvi, A., Pillet, S., Risso, K., Aubert, V., Barth, J., Bernasconi, E., Böni, J., Bucher, H. C., Burton-Jeangros, C., Calmy, A., Egger, M., Fehr, J., Fellay, J., Gorgievski, M., Günthard, H., Haerry, D., Hasse, B., Hirsch, H. H., Hösli, I., Kahlert, C., Kaiser, L., Keiser, O., Klimkait, T., Kovari, H., Martinetti, G., Martinez de Tejada, B., Metzner, K., Müller, N., Nadal, D., Pantaleo, G., Rauch, A., Regenass, A., Rudin, C., Schmid, P., Schultze, D., Schöni-Affolter, F., Schüpbach, J., Speck, R., Taffé, P., Tarr, P., Telenti, A., Trkola, A., Vernazza, P., Yerly, S., Bhagani, S., Burns, F., Byrne, P., Carroll, A., Cropley, I., Cuthbertson, Z., Drinkwater, T., Fernandez, T., Garusu, E., Gonzales, A., Grover, D., Hutchinson, S., Killingley, B., Murphy, G., Ivens, D., Johnson, M., Kinloch de Loes, S., Lipman, M., Madge, S., Marshall, N., Montgomery, H., Shah, R., Swaden, L., Tyrer, M., Youle, M., Webster, D., Wright, A., Chaloner, C., Miah, M., Tsintas, R., Burch, L., Cambiano, V., Lampe, F., Nakagawa, F., O'Connor, J., Speakman, A., Connell, M., Clewley, G., Martin, S., Thomas, M., Aagaard, B., Aragon, E., Arnaiz, J., Borup, L., Dragsted, U., Fau, A., Gey, D., Grarup, J., Hengge, U., Herrero, P., Jansson, P., Jensen, B., Jensen, K., Juncher, H., Lopez, P., Matthews, C., Mollerup, D., Pearson, M., Reilev, S., Tillmann, K., Varea, S., Angus, B., Babiker, A., Cordwell, B., Darbyshire, J., Dodds, W., Fleck, S., Horton, J., Hudson, F., Moraes, Y., Pacciarini, F., Palfreeman, A., Paton, N., Smith, N., van Hooff, F., Bebchuk, J., Collins, G., Denning, E., Duchene, A., Fosdick, L., Harrison, M., Herman-Lamin, K., Larson, G., Nelson, R., Quan, K., Quan, S., Schultz, T., Wyman, N., Carey, C., Chan, F., Courtney-Rodgers, D., Drummond, F., Emery, S., Harrod, M., Jacoby, S., Kearney, L., Lin, E., Pett, S., Robson, R., Seneviratne, N., Stewart, M., Watts, E., Finley, E., Sánchez, A., Standridge, B., Vjecha, M., Belloso, W., Davey, R., Duprez, D., Lifson, A., Pederson, C., Price, R., Prineas, R., Rhame, F., Worley, J., Modlin, J., Beral, V., Chaisson, R., Fleming, T., Hill, C., Kim, K., Murray, B., Pick, B., Seligmann, M., Weller, I., Cahill, K., Fox, L., Luzar, M., Martinez, A., Mcnay, L., Pierson, J., Tierney, J., Vogel, S., Costas, V., Eckstrand, J., Brown, S., Abusamra, L., Angel, E., Aquilia, S., Benetucci, J., Bittar, V., Bogdanowicz, E., Cahn, P., Casiro, A., Contarelli, J., Corral, J., Daciuk, L., David, D., Dobrzanski, W., Duran, A., Ebenrstejin, J., Ferrari, I., Fridman, D., Galache, V., Guaragna, G., Ivalo, S., Krolewiecki, A., Lanusse, I., Laplume, H., Lasala, M., Lattes, R., Lazovski, J., Lopardo, G., Lourtau, L., Lupo, S., Maranzana, A., Marson, C., Massera, L., Moscatello, G., Olivia, S., Otegui, I., Palacios, L., Parlante, A., Salomon, H., Sanchez, M., Somenzini, C., Suarez, C., Tocci, M., Toibaro, J., Zala, C., Agrawal, S., Ambrose, P., Anderson, C., Anderson, J., Beileiter, K., Blavius, K., Boyle, M., Bradford, D., Britton, P., Brown, P., Busic, T., Cain, A., Carrall, L., Carson, S., Chenoweth, I., Clark, F., Clemons, J., Clezy, K., Cortissos, P., Cunningham, N., Curry, M., Daly, L., D'Arcy-Evans, C., Del Rosario, R., Dinning, S., Dobson, P., Donohue, W., Doong, N., Downs, C., Edwards, E., Egan, C., Ferguson, W., Finlayson, R., Forsdyke, C., Foy, L., Frater, A., French, M., Gleeson, D., Gold, J., Habel, P., Haig, K., Hardy, S., Holland, R., Hudson, J., Hutchison, R., Hyland, N., James, R., Johnston, C., Kelly, M., King, M., Kunkel, K., Lau, H., Leamy, J., Lester, D., Leung, J., Lohmeyer, A., Lowe, K., Macrae, K., Magness, C., Martinez, O., Maruszak, H., Medland, N., Miller, S., Murray, J., Negus, P., Newman, R., Nowlan, C., Oddy, J., Orford, N., Orth, D., Patching, J., Plummer, M., Price, S., Primrose, R., Prone, I., Ree, H., Remington, C., Richardson, R., Robinson, S., Rogers, G., Roney, J., Russell, D., Ryan, S., Sarangapany, J., Schmidt, T., Schneider, K., Shields, C., Silberberg, C., Shaw, D., Smith, D., Meng Soo, T., Sowden, D., Street, A., Kiem Tee, B., Thomson, J. L., Topaz, S., Villella, C., Walker, A., Watson, A., Wendt, N., Williams, L., Youds, D., Aichelburg, A., Cichon, P., Gemeinhart, B., Rieger, A., Schmied, B., Touzeau-Romer, V., Deroo, A., O'Doherty, E., de Wit, S., De Salles Amorim, C., Basso, C., Flint, S., Kallas, E., Levi, G., Lewi, D., Pereira, L., da Silva, M., Souza, T., Toscano, A., Angel, J., Arsenault, M., Bast, M., Beckthold, B., Bouchard, P., Chabot, I., Clarke, R., Cohen, J., Coté, P., Ellis, M., Gagne, C., Gill, J., Houde, M., Johnston, B., Jubinville, N., Kato, C., Lamoureux, N., Latendre-Paquette, J., Lindemulder, A., Mcneil, A., Mcfarland, N., Montaner, J., Morrisseau, C., O'Neill, R., Page, G., Piche, A., Pongracz, B., Preziosi, H., Puri, L., Rachlis, A., Ralph, E., Raymond, I., Rouleau, D., Routy, J. P., Sandre, R., Seddon, R. T., Shafran, S., Sikora, C., Smaill, F., Stromberg, D., Trottier, S., Walmsley, S., Weiss, K., Williams, K., Zarowny, D., Baadegaard, B., Bengaard Andersen, Ã…., Boedker, K., Collins, P., Jensen, L., Moller, H., Lehm Andersen, P., Loftheim, I., Mathiesen, L., Nielsen, H., Obel, N., Petersen, D., Pors Jensen, L., Trunk Black, F., Aboulker, P., Aouba, A., Bensalem, M., Berthe, H., Blanc, C., Bornarel, D., Bouchaud, O., Boue, F., Bouvet, E., Brancon, C., Breaud, S., Brosseau, D., Brunet, A., Capitant, C., Ceppi, C., Chakvetadze, C., Cheneau, C., Chennebault, J. M., De Truchis, P., Delavalle, A. M., Delfraissy, J. F., Dumont, C., Edeb, N., Fabre, G., Foltzer, A., Foubert, V., Gastaut, J. A., Gerbe, J., Girard, P. M., Goujard, C., Hoen, B., Honore, P., Hue, H., Hynh, T., Jung, C., Kahi, S., Lang, J. M., Le Baut, V., Lefebvre, B., Leturque, N., Lévy, Y., Loison, J., Maddi, G., Maignan, A., Majerholc, C., de Boever, C., Meynard, J. 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W., Howe-Pittman, M., Hubbard, J., Hudson, R., Hunter, H., Hutelmyer, C., Insignares, M. T., Jackson, L., Jenny, L., Johnson, D. L., Johnson, G., Johnson, J., Kaatz, J., Kaczmarski, J., Kagan, S., Kantor, C., Kempner, T., Kieckhaus, K., Kimmel, N., Klaus, B. M., Koeppe, J. R., Koirala, J., Kopka, J., Kostman, J. R., Kozal, M. J., Kumar, A., Lampiris, H., Lamprecht, C., Lattanzi, K. M., Lee, J., Leggett, J., Long, C., Loquere, A., Loveless, K., Lucasti, C. J., Macveigh, M., Makohon, L. H., Markowitz, N. P., Marks, C., Martorell, C., Mcfeaters, E., Mcgee, B., Mcintyre, D. M., Mcmanus, E., Melecio, L. G., Melton, D., Mercado, S., Merrifield, E., Mieras, J. A., Mogyoros, M., Moran, F. M., Murphy, K., Mutic, S., Nadeem, I., Nadler, J. P., Ognjan, A., O'Hearn, M., O'Keefe, K., Okhuysen, P. C., Oldfield, E., Olson, D., Orenstein, R., Ortiz, R., Parpart, F., Pastore-Lange, V., Paul, S., Pavlatos, A., Pearce, D. D., Pelz, R., Peterson, S., Pitrak, D., Powers, S. L., Pujet, H. C., Raaum, J. W., Ravishankar, J., Reeder, J., Reilly, N. A., Reyelt, C., Riddell, J., Rimland, D., Robinson, M. L., Rodriguez, A. E., Rodriguez-Barradas, M. C., Rodriguez Derouen, V., Rosmarin, C., Rossen, W. L., Rouff, J. R., Sampson, J. H., Sands, M., Savini, C., Schrader, S., Schulte, M. M., Scott, R., Seedhom, H., Sension, M., Sheble-Hall, A., Shuter, J., Slater, L. N., Slotten, R., Smith, M., Snap, S., States, D. M., Stringer, G., Summers, K. K., Swanson, K., Sweeton, I. B., Szabo, S., Tedaldi, E. M., Telzak, E. E., Thompson, M. A., Thompson, S., Ting Hong Bong, C., Vaccaro, A., Vasco, L. M., Vecino, I., Verlinghieri, G. K., Visnegarwala, F., Wade, B. H., Weis, S. E., Weise, J. A., Weissman, S., Wilkin, A. M., Witter, J. H., Wojtusic, L., Wright, T. J., Yeh, V., Young, B., Zeana, C., Zeh, J., Savio, E., Vacarezza, M., University College of London [London] (UCL), University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (UvA), University of Minnesota [Twin Cities] (UMN), University of Minnesota System, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nîmes (CHU Nîmes), Aide à la Décision pour une Médecine Personnalisé - Laboratoire de Biostatistique, Epidémiologie et Recherche Clinique - EA 2415 (AIDMP), Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nice (CHU Nice), Epidémiologie et Biostatistique [Bordeaux], Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2-Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Med Microbiol, Infect Dis & Infect Prev, RS: NUTRIM - R3 - Chronic inflammatory disease and wasting, RS: CAPHRI School for Public Health and Primary Care, RS: CAPHRI - R4 - Health Inequities and Societal Participation, Interne Geneeskunde, Chemical Biology, Mocroft, A, Lundgren, J, Ross, M, Law, M, Reiss, P, Kirk, O, Smith, C, Wentworth, D, Neuhaus, J, Fux, C, Moranne, O, Morlat, P, Johnson, M, Ryom, L, Gori, A, Internal medicine, CCA - Innovative therapy, ICaR - Circulation and metabolism, Medical Microbiology and Infection Prevention, CCA - Disease profiling, CCA - Immuno-pathogenesis, Plastic, Reconstructive and Hand Surgery, Mocroft, Amanda, Lundgren, Jens D., Ross, Michael, Law, Matthew, Reiss, Peter, Kirk, Ole, Smith, Colette, Wentworth, Deborah, Neuhaus, Jacqueline, Fux, Christoph A., Moranne, Olivier, Morlat, Phillipe, Johnson, Margaret A., Ryom, Lene, D:a:d Study, Group, Castagna, Antonella, the Royal Free Hospital Clinic, Cohort, and the, Insight, Smart, and ESPRIT, Study, Clinicum, Department of Medicine, Herrada, Anthony, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), AII - Amsterdam institute for Infection and Immunity, APH - Amsterdam Public Health, Global Health, Other departments, Infectious diseases, Paediatric Infectious Diseases / Rheumatology / Immunology, General Internal Medicine, Center of Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Graduate School, Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Dermatology, ACS - Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences, Other Research, Anesthesiology, and Bartlett, John

Subjects
Male, Adult, Age Factors, Anti-HIV Agents, CD4 Lymphocyte Count, Clinical Decision-Making, Comorbidity, Female, HIV, HIV Infections, HIV Seropositivity, Humans, Incidence, Kidney, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Risk, Risk Assessment, Sex Factors, urologic and male genital diseases, Biochemistry, 0302 clinical medicine, ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY, Adult, Age Factors, Anti-HIV Agents, CD4 Lymphocyte Count, Clinical Decision-Making, Comorbidity, Female, HIV, HIV Infections, HIV Seropositivity, Humans, Incidence, Kidney, Male, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Risk, Risk Assessment, Sex Factors, [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, Age Factor, Chronic, STAGE RENAL-DISEASE, PROTEINURIA, virus diseases, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, General Medicine, ASSOCIATION, 6. Clean water, female genital diseases and pregnancy complications, 3. Good health, HIV/AIDS, Medicine, Infection, psychological phenomena and processes, Human, medicine.medical_specialty, Renal function, NEFROPATIAS, chronic kidney disease, risk score model, 12. Responsible consumption, ESPRIT study group, 03 medical and health sciences, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Clinical Research, D:A:D study group, Intensive care medicine, medicine (all), Molecular Biology, Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort, Prevention, Anti-HIV Agent, medicine.disease, Prospective Studie, lnfectious Diseases and Global Health Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 4], Immunology, Kidney Disease, PREDICTION, POSITIVE PERSONS, 030232 urology & nephrology, Sex Factor, SDG 3 – Goede gezondheid en welzijn, Medical and Health Sciences, GLOMERULAR-FILTRATION-RATE, [SDV.MHEP.UN]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Urology and Nephrology, INSIGHT study group, HIV Infection, LIFE EXPECTANCY, 030212 general & internal medicine, Renal Insufficiency, Prospective cohort study, Framingham Risk Score, Incidence (epidemiology), adult, age factors, anti-hiv agents, CD4 lymphocyte count, clinical decision-making, comorbidity, female, hiv, hiv infections, hiv seropositivity, humans, incidence, kidney, male, middle aged, prospective studies, renal insufficiency, chronic, risk, risk assessment, sex factors, SMART study group, 6.1 Pharmaceuticals, [SDV.MHEP.MI] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, Patient Safety, Risk assessment, Biotechnology, Research Article, Settore MED/17 - MALATTIE INFETTIVE, NO, A:D study group [D], General & Internal Medicine, Diabetes mellitus, mental disorders, medicine, EXPOSURE, business.industry, Evaluation of treatments and therapeutic interventions, Cell Biology, [SDV.MHEP.UN] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Urology and Nephrology, INDIVIDUALS, Good Health and Well Being, [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, business, Kidney disease
Abstract

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3–9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was −2 (interquartile range –4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0–4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166–3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159–278) and 21 (95% CI 19–23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506–1462), 88 (95% CI 69–121), and 9 (95% CI 8–10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3–12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6–8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD., Editors’ Summary Background About 35 million people are currently infected with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. HIV destroys CD4 lymphocytes and other immune system cells, leaving infected individuals susceptible to other infections. HIV infection can be controlled, but not cured, using combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), and, nowadays, the life expectancy of many HIV-positive individuals is similar to that of HIV-negative people. HIV-positive individuals nevertheless experience some illnesses more frequently than HIV-negative people do. For example, up to a third of HIV-positive individuals develop chronic kidney disease (CKD), which is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and death. Persons with CKD may have an impaired effect of the filtration units in the kidneys that remove waste products and excess water from the blood to make urine, thereby leading to a reduced blood filtration rate (the estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]) and waste product accumulation in the blood. Symptoms of CKD, which rarely occur until the disease is advanced, include tiredness, swollen feet, and frequent urination. Advanced stages of CKD cannot be cured, but its progression can be slowed by, for example, controlling hypertension (high blood pressure) and diabetes (two CDK risk factors) and by adopting a healthy lifestyle. Why Was This Study Done? The burden of CKD may increase among HIV-positive individuals as they age, and clinicians need to know which individuals are at high risk of developing CKD when choosing cART regimens for their patients. In addition, clinicians need to be able to identify those HIV-positive individuals at greatest risk of CKD so that they can monitor them for early signs of kidney disease. Some antiretroviral drugs—for example, tenofovir and atazanavir/ritonavir (a boosted protease inhibitor)—are associated with kidney damage. Clinicians may need to weigh the benefits and risks of giving such potentially nephrotoxic drugs to individuals who already have a high CKD risk. Here, the researchers develop and validate a simple, widely applicable risk score (a risk prediction model) for CKD among HIV-positive individuals and investigate the relationship between CKD and potentially nephrotoxic antiretroviral drugs among individuals with different CKD risk score profiles. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? To develop their CKD risk score, the researchers used clinical and demographic data collected from 17,954 HIV-positive individuals enrolled in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study who had an eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and were not taking a potentially nephrotoxic antiretroviral at baseline. During 103,185 person-years of follow-up, 641 individuals developed CKD. Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease predicted CKD. The researchers included these nine factors in their risk score model (which is available online) and defined three risk groups: low (risk score < 0), medium (risk score 0–4), and high (risk score ≥ 5) risk of CKD development in the next five years. Specifically, there was a 1 in 393, 1 in 47, and 1 in 6 chance of developing CKD in the next five years in the low, medium, and high risk groups, respectively. Because some patients started to use potentially nephrotoxic antiretroviral drugs during follow-up, the researchers were able to use their risk score model to calculate how many patients would have to be treated with one of these drugs for an additional patient to develop CKD over five years in each risk group. This “number needed to harm” (NNTH) for patients starting treatment with tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor was 739, 88, and 9 in the low, medium, and high risk groups, respectively. Finally, the researchers validated the accuracy of their risk score in two independent HIV study groups. What Do These Findings Mean? These findings provide a simple, validated risk score for CKD and indicate that the NNTH when starting potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals was low among HIV-positive individuals at the highest risk of CKD (i.e., treating just nine individuals with nephrotoxic antiretroviral drugs will likely lead to an additional case of CKD in five years). Although various aspects of the study, including the lack of data on race, limit the accuracy of these findings, these findings highlight the need for monitoring, screening, and chronic disease prevention to minimize the risk of HIV-positive individuals developing diabetes, hypertension, or cardiovascular disease, or becoming coinfected with hepatitis C, all of which contribute to the CKD risk score. Moreover, the development of a tool for estimating an individual’s five-year risk of developing CKD with or without the addition of potentially nephrotoxic antiretroviral drugs will enable clinicians and patients to weigh the benefits of certain antiretroviral drugs against the risk of CKD and make informed decisions about treatment options. Additional Information Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001809. Information is available from the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases on HIV infection and AIDS NAM/aidsmap provides basic information about HIV/AIDS, summaries of recent research findings on HIV care and treatment, and personal stories about living with AIDS/HIV Information is available from Avert, an international AIDS charity, on many aspects of HIV/AIDS, including personal stories about living with HIV/AIDS The World Health Organization provides information on all aspects of HIV/AIDS (in several languages), including its guidelines on the use of ART for treating and preventing HIV infection The UNAIDS World AIDS Day Report 2014 provides up-to-date information about the AIDS epidemic and efforts to halt it The UK National Health Service Choices website provides information for patients on chronic kidney disease, including some personal stories The US National Kidney Foundation, a not-for-profit organization, provides information about chronic kidney disease (in English and Spanish) A tool for calculating the CDK risk score developed in this study is available Additional information about the D:A:D study is available, Amanda Mocroft and colleagues develop and validate a model for determining risk of developing chronic kidney disease for individuals with HIV if treated with different antiretroviral therapies.

Published
2015
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15. Identifying Key Drivers of the Impact of an HIV Cure Intervention in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Phillips, AN, Cambiano, V, Revill, P, Nakagawa, F, Lundgren, JD, Bansi-Matharu, L, Mabugu, T, Sculpher, M, Garnett, G, Staprans, S, Becker, S, Murungu, J, Lewin, SR, Deeks, SG, Hallett, TB, Phillips, AN, Cambiano, V, Revill, P, Nakagawa, F, Lundgren, JD, Bansi-Matharu, L, Mabugu, T, Sculpher, M, Garnett, G, Staprans, S, Becker, S, Murungu, J, Lewin, SR, Deeks, SG, and Hallett, TB

Abstract

BACKGROUND: It is unknown what properties would be required to make an intervention in low income countries that can eradicate or control human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) without antiretroviral therapy (ART) cost-effective. METHODS: We used a model of HIV and ART to investigate the effect of introducing an ART-free viral suppression intervention in 2022 using Zimbabwe as an example country. We assumed that the intervention (cost: $500) would be accessible for 90% of the population, be given to those receiving effective ART, have sufficient efficacy to allow ART interruption in 95%, with a rate of viral rebound of 5% per year in the first 3 months, and a 50% decline in rate with each successive year. RESULTS: An ART-free viral suppression intervention with these properties would result in >0.53 million disability-adjusted-life-years averted over 2022-2042, with a reduction in HIV program costs of $300 million (8.7% saving). An intervention of this efficacy costing anything up to $1400 is likely to be cost-effective in this setting. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions aimed at curing HIV infection have the potential to improve overall disease burden and to reduce costs. Given the effectiveness and cost of ART, such interventions would have to be inexpensive and highly effective.

Published
2016

16. Persistence of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance mutations

Author

Castro, H., Pillay, D., Cane, P., Asboe, D., Cambiano, V., Phillips, A., Dunn, D. T., Aitken, C., Webster, D., Chadwick, D., Churchill, D., Clark, D., Collins, S., Delpech, V., Geretti, A. M., Goldberg, D., Hale, A., Hue, S., Kaye, S., Kellam, P., Lazarus, L., Leigh-Brown, A., Mackie, N., Orkin, C., Rice, P., Smit, E., Templeton, K., Tilston, P., Tong, W., Williams, I., Zhang, H., Zuckerman, M., Greatorex, J., Wildfire, A., O'Shea, S., Mullen, J., Mbisa, T., Cox, A., Tandy, R., Hale, T., Fawcett, T., Hopkins, M., Ashton, L., Garcia-Diaz, A., Shepherd, J., Schmid, M. L., Payne, B., Hay, P., Paynter, M., Bibby, D., Kirk, S., MacLean, A., and Gunson, R.

Subjects
Male, FITNESS, Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), HIV Infections, Drug resistance, VARIANTS, medicine.disease_cause, THERAPY, Persistence (computer science), 0302 clinical medicine, Immunology and Allergy, 030212 general & internal medicine, Hiv transmission, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, media_common, transmitted, 0303 health sciences, Mutation, Thymidine analogue, persistence, IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS TYPE-1, ABSENCE, 3. Good health, Infectious Diseases, HIV/AIDS, Female, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Drug, Adult, Adolescent, Anti-HIV Agents, media_common.quotation_subject, Immunology, Exponential regression, Biology, Microbiology, UK Collaborative Group on HIV Drug Resistance, resistance, 03 medical and health sciences, Major Articles and Brief Reports, Young Adult, Drug Resistance, Viral, medicine, Humans, 030304 developmental biology, Science & Technology, 06 Biological Sciences, mutations, Virology, HIV-1
Abstract

There are few data on the persistence of individual human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmitted drug resistance (TDR) mutations in the absence of selective drug pressure. We studied 313 patients in whom TDR mutations were detected at their first resistance test and who had a subsequent test performed while ART-naive. The rate at which mutations became undetectable was estimated using exponential regression accounting for interval censoring. Most thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs) and T215 revertants (but not T215F/Y) were found to be highly stable, with NNRTI and PI mutations being relatively less persistent. Our estimates are important for informing HIV transmission models.

Published
2013

17. Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

Author

Eaton, J.W., Bacaer, N., Bershteyn, A., Cambiano, V., Cori, A., Dorrington, R.E., Fraser, C., Gopalappa, C., Hontelez, J.A., Johnson, L.F., Klein, D.J., Phillips, A.N., Pretorius, C., Stover, J., Rehle, T.M., Hallett, T.B., Eaton, J.W., Bacaer, N., Bershteyn, A., Cambiano, V., Cori, A., Dorrington, R.E., Fraser, C., Gopalappa, C., Hontelez, J.A., Johnson, L.F., Klein, D.J., Phillips, A.N., Pretorius, C., Stover, J., Rehle, T.M., and Hallett, T.B.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 154578.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access), BACKGROUND: Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012. METHODS: We compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15-49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey. FINDINGS: All models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18.8%), with eight models' central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17.5-20.3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16.9% in 2008 to 18.8% in 2012 (difference 1.9, 95% CI -0.1 to 3.9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1.6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI -0.3 to 3.5) in young adults aged 15-24 years, and the 2.2 percentage point (0.5 to 3.9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1.54-2.12 million. However, the differential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2.22 (95% CI 1.73-2.71). INTERPRETATION: Projections for overall declines in HIV epidemics during the ART era might have been optimistic. Future treatment and HIV prevention needs might be greater than previousl

Published
2015

18. Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: A validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

Author

Eaton, J.W. (Jeffrey), Bacaër, N. (Nicolas), Bershteyn, A. (Anna), Cambiano, V. (Valentina), Cori, A. (Anne), Dorrington, R.E. (Rob E), Fraser, C. (Christophe), Gopalappa, C. (Chaitra), Hontelez, J.A.C. (Jan), Johnson, L.F. (Leigh), Klein, D.J. (David), Phillips, A. (Andrew), Pretorius, C. (Carel), Stover, J. (John), Rehle, T.M. (Thomas M), Hallett, T.B. (Timothy), Eaton, J.W. (Jeffrey), Bacaër, N. (Nicolas), Bershteyn, A. (Anna), Cambiano, V. (Valentina), Cori, A. (Anne), Dorrington, R.E. (Rob E), Fraser, C. (Christophe), Gopalappa, C. (Chaitra), Hontelez, J.A.C. (Jan), Johnson, L.F. (Leigh), Klein, D.J. (David), Phillips, A. (Andrew), Pretorius, C. (Carel), Stover, J. (John), Rehle, T.M. (Thomas M), and Hallett, T.B. (Timothy)

Abstract

Background: Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012. Methods: We compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15-49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey. Findings: All models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18·8%), with eight models' central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17·5-20·3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16·9% in 2008 to 18·8% in 2012 (difference 1·9, 95% CI -0·1 to 3·9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1·6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI -0·3 to 3·5) in young adults aged 15-24 years, and the 2·2 percentage point (0·5 to 3·9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1·54-2·12 million. However, the differential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2·22 (95% CI 1·73-2·71). Interpretation: Projections for overall declines in HIV epidemics during the ART era might have been optimistic. Future treatment and HIV prevention needs might be greater than previousl

Published
2015
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19. Sustainable HIV treatment in Africa through viral-load-informed differentiated care

Author

Phillips, A. (Andrew), Shroufi, A. (Amir), Vojnov, L. (Lara), Cohn, J. (Jennifer), Roberts, T. (Teri), Ellman, T. (Tom), Bonner, K. (Kimberly), Rousseau, C. (Christine), Garnett, G. (Geoff), Cambiano, V. (Valentina), Nakagawa, F. (Fumiyo), Ford, D. (Deborah), Bansi-Matharu, L. (Loveleen), Miners, A. (Alec), Lundgren, J.D. (Jens D.), Eaton, J.W. (Jeffrey), Parkes-Ratanshi, R. (Rosalind), Katz, Z. (Zachary), Maman, D. (David), Ford, N. (Nathan), Vitoria, M. (Marco), Doherty, M.C. (Meg), Dowdy, D. (David), Nichols, B.E. (Brooke), Murtagh, M. (Maurine), Wareham, M. (Meghan), Palamountain, K.M. (Kara M.), Chakanyuka Musanhu, C. (Christine), Stevens, W. (Wendy), Katzenstein, D. (David), Ciaranello, A. (Andrea), Barnabas, R. (Ruanne), Braithwaite, R.S. (R. Scott), Bendavid, A. (Avrom), Nathoo, K.J. (Kusum J.), Vijver, D.A.M.C. (David) van de, Wilson, D.P. (David P.), Holmes, C. (Charles), Bershteyn, A. (Anna), Walker, S. (Simon), Raizes, E. (Elliot), Jani, I. (Ilesh), Nelson, L.J. (Lisa J.), Peeling, R. (Rosanna), Terris-Prestholt, F. (Fern), Murungu, J. (Joseph), Mutasa-Apollo, T. (Tsitsi), Hallett, T.B. (Timothy), Revill, P. (Paul), Phillips, A. (Andrew), Shroufi, A. (Amir), Vojnov, L. (Lara), Cohn, J. (Jennifer), Roberts, T. (Teri), Ellman, T. (Tom), Bonner, K. (Kimberly), Rousseau, C. (Christine), Garnett, G. (Geoff), Cambiano, V. (Valentina), Nakagawa, F. (Fumiyo), Ford, D. (Deborah), Bansi-Matharu, L. (Loveleen), Miners, A. (Alec), Lundgren, J.D. (Jens D.), Eaton, J.W. (Jeffrey), Parkes-Ratanshi, R. (Rosalind), Katz, Z. (Zachary), Maman, D. (David), Ford, N. (Nathan), Vitoria, M. (Marco), Doherty, M.C. (Meg), Dowdy, D. (David), Nichols, B.E. (Brooke), Murtagh, M. (Maurine), Wareham, M. (Meghan), Palamountain, K.M. (Kara M.), Chakanyuka Musanhu, C. (Christine), Stevens, W. (Wendy), Katzenstein, D. (David), Ciaranello, A. (Andrea), Barnabas, R. (Ruanne), Braithwaite, R.S. (R. Scott), Bendavid, A. (Avrom), Nathoo, K.J. (Kusum J.), Vijver, D.A.M.C. (David) van de, Wilson, D.P. (David P.), Holmes, C. (Charles), Bershteyn, A. (Anna), Walker, S. (Simon), Raizes, E. (Elliot), Jani, I. (Ilesh), Nelson, L.J. (Lisa J.), Peeling, R. (Rosanna), Terris-Prestholt, F. (Fern), Murungu, J. (Joseph), Mutasa-Apollo, T. (Tsitsi), Hallett, T.B. (Timothy), and Revill, P. (Paul)

Published
2015
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20. Sustainable HIV treatment in Africa through viral-load-informed differentiated care

Author

Phillips, A, Shroufi, A, Vojnov, L, Cohn, J, Roberts, T, Ellman, T, Bonner, K, Rousseau, C, Garnett, G, Cambiano, V, Nakagawa, F, Ford, D, Bansi-Matharu, L, Miners, A, Lundgren, JD, Eaton, JW, Parkes-Ratanshi, R, Katz, Z, Maman, D, Ford, N, Vitoria, M, Doherty, M, Dowdy, D, Nichols, B, Murtagh, M, Wareham, M, Palamountain, KM, Chakanyuka Musanhu, C, Stevens, W, Katzenstein, D, Ciaranello, A, Barnabas, R, Braithwaite, RS, Bendavid, E, Nathoo, KJ, Van De Vijver, D, Wilson, DP, Holmes, C, Bershteyn, A, Walker, S, Raizes, E, Jani, I, Nelson, LJ, Peeling, R, Terris-Prestholt, F, Murungu, J, Mutasa-Apollo, T, Hallett, TB, Revill, P, Phillips, A, Shroufi, A, Vojnov, L, Cohn, J, Roberts, T, Ellman, T, Bonner, K, Rousseau, C, Garnett, G, Cambiano, V, Nakagawa, F, Ford, D, Bansi-Matharu, L, Miners, A, Lundgren, JD, Eaton, JW, Parkes-Ratanshi, R, Katz, Z, Maman, D, Ford, N, Vitoria, M, Doherty, M, Dowdy, D, Nichols, B, Murtagh, M, Wareham, M, Palamountain, KM, Chakanyuka Musanhu, C, Stevens, W, Katzenstein, D, Ciaranello, A, Barnabas, R, Braithwaite, RS, Bendavid, E, Nathoo, KJ, Van De Vijver, D, Wilson, DP, Holmes, C, Bershteyn, A, Walker, S, Raizes, E, Jani, I, Nelson, LJ, Peeling, R, Terris-Prestholt, F, Murungu, J, Mutasa-Apollo, T, Hallett, TB, and Revill, P

Abstract

There are inefficiencies in current approaches to monitoring patients on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients typically attend clinics every 1 to 3 months for clinical assessment. The clinic costs are comparable with the costs of the drugs themselves and CD4 counts are measured every 6 months, but patients are rarely switched to second-line therapies. To ensure sustainability of treatment programmes, a transition to more cost-effective delivery of antiretroviral therapy is needed. In contrast to the CD4 count, measurement of the level of HIV RNA in plasma (the viral load) provides a direct measure of the current treatment effect. Viral-load-informed differentiated care is a means of tailoring care so that those with suppressed viral load visit the clinic less frequently and attention is focussed on those with unsuppressed viral load to promote adherence and timely switching to a second-line regimen. The most feasible approach to measuring viral load in many countries is to collect dried blood spot samples for testing in regional laboratories; however, there have been concerns over the sensitivity and specificity of this approach to define treatment failure and the delay in returning results to the clinic. We use modelling to synthesize evidence and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of viral-load-informed differentiated care, accounting for limitations of dried blood sample testing. We find that viral-load-informed differentiated care using dried blood sample testing is cost-effective and is a recommended strategy for patient monitoring, although further empirical evidence as the approach is rolled out would be of value. We also explore the potential benefits of point-of-care viral load tests that may become available in the future.This article has not been written or reviewed by Nature editors. Nature accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided.

Published
2015

21. Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Author

Mocroft, A., Lundgren, J. D., Ross, M., Law, M., Reiss, P., Kirk, O., Smith, C., Wentworth, D., Neuhaus, J., Fux, C. A., Moranne, O., Morlat, P., Johnson, M. A., Ryom, L., Powderly, B., Shortman, N., Moecklinghoff, C., Reilly, G., Franquet, X., Sabin, C. A., Phillips, A., Weber, R., Pradier, C., d'Arminio Monforte, A., Dabis, F., El-Sadr, W. M., De Wit, S., Kamara, D., Tverland, J., Mansfeld, M., Nielsen, J., Raben, D., Salbol Brandt, R., Rickenbach, M., Fanti, I., Krum, E., Hillebregt, M., Geffard, S., Sundstrom, A., Delforge, M., Fontas, E., Torres, F., Mcmanus, H., Wright, S., Kjaer, J., Sjol, A., Meidahl, P., Helweg-Larsen, J., Schmidt Iversen, J., Kesselring, A. M., Friis-Moller, N., Kowalska, J., Sabin, C., Bruyand, M., Kamara, D. A., Bower, M., Fatkenheuer, G., Donald, A., Grulich, A., Prins, J. M., Kuijpers, T. W., Scherpbier, H. J., van der Meer, J. T. M., Wit, F. W. M. N., Godfried, M. H., van der Poll, T., Nellen, F. J. B., Geerlings, S. E., van Vugt, M., Pajkrt, D., Bos, J. C., Wiersinga, W. J., van der Valk, M., Goorhuis, A., Hovius, J. W., van Eden, J., Henderiks, A., van Hes, A. M. H., Mutschelknauss, M., Nobel, H. E., Pijnappel, F. J. J., Westerman, A. M., Jurriaans, S., Back, N. K. T., Zaaijer, H. L., Berkhout, B., Cornelissen, M. T. E., Schinkel, C. J., Thomas, X. V., van den Berge, M., Stegeman, A., Baas, S., Hage de Looff, L., Versteeg, D., Pronk, M. J. H., Ammerlaan, H. S. M., Korsten-Vorstermans, E. M. H. M., de Munnik, E. S., Jansz, A. R., Tjhie, J., Wegdam, M. C. A., Deiman, B., Scharnhorst, V., van der Plas, A., Weijsenfeld, A. M., van der Ende, M. E., de Vries-Sluijs, T. E. M. S., C. M. van Gorp, E., Schurink, C. A. M., Nouwen, J. L., Verbon, A., Rijnders, B. J. A., Bax, H. I., Hassing, R. J., van der Feltz, M., Bassant, N., van Beek, J. E. A., Vriesde, M., van Zonneveld, L. M., de Oude-Lubbers, A., van den Berg-Cameron, H. J., Bruinsma-Broekman, F. B., de Groot, J., de Zeeuw- de Man, M., Broekhoven-Kruijne, M. J., Schutten, M., Osterhaus, A. D. M. E., Boucher, C. A. B., Driessen, G. J. A., van Rossum, A. M. C., van der Knaap, L. C., Visser, E., Branger, J., H. M. Duijf-van de Ven C., J., Schippers, E. F., van Nieuwkoop, C., Brimicombe, R. W., van IJperen, J. M., van der Hut, G., Franck, P. F. H., van Eeden, A., Brokking, W., Groot, M., Damen, M., Kwa, I. S., Groeneveld, P. H. P., Bouwhuis, J. W., van den Berg, J. F., van Hulzen, A. G. W., van der Bliek, G. L., Bor, P. C. J., Bloembergen, P., Wolfhagen, M. J. H. M., Ruijs, G. J. H. M., van Lelyveld, S. F. L., Soetekouw, R., Hulshoff, N., van der Prijt, L. M. M., Schoemaker, M., Bermon, N., van der Reijden, W. A., Jansen, R., Herpers, B. L., Veenendaal, D., Kroon, F. P., Arend, S. M., de Boer, M. G. J., Bauer, M. P., Jolink, H., Vollaard, A. M., Dorama, W., Moons, C., Claas, E. C. J., Kroes, A. C. M., den Hollander, J. G., Pogany, K., Kastelijns, M., Smit, J. 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L., Cohen, Y., Drora, G., Eliezer, I., Godo, O., Kedem, E., Magen, E., Mamorsky, M., Sthoeger, Z., Vered, H., Aiuti, F., Bechi, M., Bergamasco, A., Bertelli, D., Bruno, R., Butini, L., Cagliuso, M., Carosi, G., Casari, S., Chrysoula, V., Cologni, G., Conti, V., Corpolongo, A., D'Offizi, G., Gaiottino, F., Di Pietro, M., Filice, G., Francesco, M., Gianelli, E., Graziella, C., Magenta, L., Martellotta, F., Maserati, R., Murdaca, G., Nardini, G., Nozza, S., Puppo, F., Pogliaghi, M., Ripamonti, D., Ronchetti, C., Rusconi, V., Sacchi, P., Silvia, N., Suter, F., Tambussi, G., Uglietti, A., Vechi, M., Vergani, B., Vichi, F., Vitiello, P., Iwamoto, A., Kikuchi, Y., Miyazaki, N., Mori, M., Nakamura, T., Odawara, T., Oka, S., Shirasaka, T., Tabata, M., Takano, M., Ueta, C., Watanabe, D., Yamamoto, Y., Erradey, I., Himmich, H., Marhoum El Filali, K., Blok, W., van Boxtel, R., Brinkman H Doevelaar, K., Grijsen, M., Juttmann, J., Ligthart, S., van der Meulen, P., Lange, J., Schrijnders-Gudde, L., Septer-Bijleveld, E., Sprenger, H., Vermeulen, J., ten Kate, R., van de Ven, B., Kvale, D., Inglot, M., Rymer, W., Szymczak, A., Aldir, M., Baptista, C., da Conceicao Vera, J., Raquel A dos Santos, C., Valadas, E., Vaz Pinto, I., Chia, E., Foo, E., Karim, F., Lim, P. 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L., Clifford, D., Climo, M., Couey, P., Cuervo, H., Deeks, S., Dennis, M., Diaz-Linares, M., Dickerson, D., Diez, M., Di Puppo, J., Dodson, P., Dupre, D., Elion, R., Elliott, K., El-Sadr, W., Estes, M., Fabre, J., Farrough, M., Flamm, J., Follansbee, S., Foster, C., Frank, C., Franz, J., Frechette, G., Freidland, G., Frische, J., Fuentes, L., Funk, C., Geisler, C., Genther, K., Giles, M., Goetz, M., Gonzalez, M., Graeber, C., Graziano, F., Grice, D., Hahn, B., Hamilton, C., Hassler, S., Henson, A., Hopper, S., John, M., Johnson, L., Johnson, R., Jones, R., Kahn, J., Klimas, N., Kolber, M., Koletar, S., Labriola, A., Larsen, R., Lasseter, F., Lederman, M., Ling, T., Lusch, T., Macarthur, R., Machado, C., Makohon, L., Mandelke, J., Mannheimer, S., Martinez, M., Martinez, N., Mass, M., Masur, H., Mcgregor, D., Mcintyre, D., Mckee, J., Mcmullen, D., Mettinger, M., Middleton, S., Mieras, J., Mildvan, D., Miller, P., Miller, T., Mitchell, V., Mitsuyasu, R., Moanna, A., Mogridge, C., Moran, F., Murphy, R., Nahass, R., Nixon, D., O'Brien, S., Ojeda, J., Okhuysen, P., Olson, M., Osterberger, J., Owen, W., Pablovich, S. S., Patel, S., Pierone, G., Poblete, R., Potter, A., Preston, E., Rappoport, C., Regevik, N., Reyelt, M., Riney, L., Rodriguez-Barradas, M., Rodriguez, M., Rodriguez, J., Roland, R., Rosmarin-DeStefano, C., Rossen, W., Rouff, J., Saag, M., Santiago, S., Sarria, J., Wirtz, S., Schmidt, U., Scott, C., Sheridan, A., Shin, A., Shrader, S., Slowinski, D., Smith, K., Spotkov, J., Sprague, C., States, D., Suh, C., Sullivan, J., Summers, K., Sweeton, B., Tan, V., Tanner, T., Temesgen, Z., Thomas, D., Thompson, M., Tobin, C., Toro, N., Towner, W., Upton, K., Uy, J., Valenti, S., van der Horst, C., Vita, J., Voell, J., Walker, J., Walton, T., Wason, K., Watson, V., Wellons, A., Weise, J., White, M., Whitman, T., Williams, B., Williams, N., Windham, J., Witt, M., Workowski, K., Wortmann, G., Wright, T., Zelasky, C., Zwickl, B., Finley, E., Dietz, D., Chesson, C., Vjecha, M., Schmetter, B., Grue, L., Willoughby, M., Demers, A., Dragsted, U. B., Jensen, K. B., Jansson, P. O., Jensen, B. G., Benfield, T. L., Darbyshire, J. H., Babiker, A. G., Fleck, S. L., Collaco-Moraes, Y., Wyzydrag, L., Drummond, F. M., Connor, S. A., Satchell, C. S., Gunn, S., Delfino, M. A., Merlin, K., Mcginley, C., Neaton, J. D., George, M., Grund, B., Hogan, C., Miller, C., Roediger, M. P., Thackeray, L., Campbell, C., Lahart, C., Perlman, D., Rein, M., Dersimonian, R., Brody, B. A., Daar, E. S., Dubler, N. N., Fleming, T. R., Freeman, D. J., Kahn, J. P., Kim, K. M., Medoff, G., Modlin, J. F., Moellering, R., Murray, B. E., Robb, M. L., Scharfstein, D. O., Sugarman, J., Tsiatis, A., Tuazon, C., Zoloth, L., Belloso, W. H., Losso, M. H., Benetucci, J. A., Bogdanowicz, E. P., Cahn, P. E., Casiro, A. D., Cassetti, I., Contarelli, J. M., Corral, J. A., Crinejo, A., David, D. O., Ishida, M. T., Laplume, H. E., Lasala, M. B., Lupo, S. H., Masciottra, F., Michaan, M., Ruggieri, L., Salazar, E., Allworth, A. M., Anderson, J. S. C., Armishaw, J., Barnes, K., Chiam, A., Chuah, J. C. P., Curry, M. C., Dever, R. L., Donohue, W. A., Doong, N. C., Dwyer, D. E., Dyer, J., Eu, B., Ferguson, V. W., French, M. A. H., Garsia, R. J., Hudson, J. H., Jeganathan, S., Konecny, P., Mccormack, C. L., Mcmurchie, M., Moore, R. J., Moussa, M. B., Piper, M., Read, T., Roney, J. J., Shaw, D. R., Silvers, J., Smith, D. J., Street, A. C., Vale, R. J., Wendt, N. A., Wood, H., Youds, D. W., Zillman, J., Tozeau, V., de Roo, A., Leonard, P., Lynen, L., Moutschen, M., Pereira, L. C., Souza, T. N. L., Schechter, M., Zajdenverg, R., Almeida, M. M. T. B., Araujo, F., Bahia, F., Brites, C., Caseiro, M. M., Casseb, J., Etzel, A., Falco, G. G., Filho, E. C. J., Flint, S. R., Gonzales, C. R., Madruga, J. V. R., Passos, L. N., Reuter, T., Sidi, L. C., Toscano, A. L. C., Cherban, E., Conway, B., Dufour, C., Foster, A., Haase, D., Haldane, H., Klein, M., Lessard, B., Martel, A., Martel, C., Paradis, E., Schlech, W., Schmidt, S., Thompson, B., Vezina, S., Wolff Reyes, M. J., Northland, R., Hergens, L., Loftheim, I. R., Raukas, M., Justinen, J., Landman, R., Abel, S., Abgrall, S., Amat, K., Auperin, L., Barruet, R., Benalycherif, A., Benammar, N., Bentata, M., Besnier, J. M., Blanc, M., Cabie, A., Chavannet, P., Dargere, S., de la Tribonniere, X., Debord, T., Decaux, N., Delgado, J., Frixon-Marin, V., Genet, C., Gerard, L., Gilquin, J., Jeantils, V., Kouadio, H., Leclercq, P., Lelievre, J. -D., Michon, C. P., Nau, P., Pacanowski, J., Piketty, C., Salmon, D., Schmit, J. L., Serini, M. A., Tassi, S., Touam, F., Verdon, R., Weinbreck, P., Yazdanpanah, Y., Yeni, P., Bitsch, S., Bogner, J. R., Goebel, F. D., Lehmann, C., Lennemann, T., Potthof, A., Wasmuth, J. C., Wiedemeyer, K., Hatzakis, A., Touloumi, G., Antoniadou, A., Daikos, G. L., Dimitrakaki, A., Gargalianos-Kakolyris, P., Giannaris, M., Karafoulidou, A., Katsambas, A., Katsarou, O., Kontos, A. N., Kordossis, T., Lazanas, M. K., Panagopoulos, P., Paparizos, V., Papastamopoulos, V., Petrikkos, G., Skoutelis, A., Tsogas, N., Bergin, C. J., Mooka, B., Mamorksy, M. G., Agmon-Levin, N., Karplus, R., Shahar, E., Biglino, A., De Gioanni, M., Montroni, M., Raise, E., Honda, M., Ishisaka, M., Caplinskas, S., Uzdaviniene, V., Schmit, J. C., Mills, G. D., Blackmore, T., Masters, J. A., Morgan, J., Pithie, A., Brunn, J., Ormasssen, V., La Rosa, A., Guerra, O., Espichan, M., Gutierrez, L., Mendo, F., Salazar, R., Knytz, B., Kwiatkowski, J., Castro, R. S., Horta, A., Miranda, A. C., Pinto, I. V., Vera, J., Vinogradova, E., Yakovlev, A., Wood, R., Orrel, C., Arnaiz, J. A., Carrillo, R., Dalmau, D., Jordano, Q., Knobel, H., Larrousse, M., Moreno, J. S., Oretaga, E., Pena, J. N., Spycher, R., Bottone, S., Christen, A., Franc, C., Furrer, H. J., Gayet-Ageron, A., Genne, D., Hochstrasser, S., Moens, C., Nuesch, R., Ruxrungtham, K., Pumpradit, W., Dangthongdee, S., Kiertiburanakul, S., Klinbuayaem, V., Mootsikapun, P., Nonenoy, S., Piyavong, B., Prasithsirikul, W., Raksakulkarn, P., Gazzard, B. G., Ainsworth, J. G., Angus, B. J., Barber, T. J., Brook, M. G., Care, C. D., Chadwick, D. R., Chikohora, M., Churchill, D. R., Cornforth, D., Dockrell, D. H., Easterbrook, P. J., Fox, P. A., Gomez, P. A., Gompels, M. M., Harris, G. M., Herman, S., Jackson, A. G. A., Jebakumar, S. P. R., Kinghorn, G. R., Kuldanek, K. A., Larbalestier, N., Lumsden, M., Maher, T., Mantell, J., Muromba, L., Orkin, C. M., Palfreeman, A. J., Peters, B. S., Peto, T. E. A., Portsmouth, S. D., Rajamanoharan, S., Ronan, A., Schwenk, A., Slinn, M. A., Stroud, C. J., Thomas, R. C., Wansbrough-Jones, M. H., Whiles, H. J., White, D. J., Williams, E., Williams, I. G., Acosta, E. A., Adamski, A., Antoniskis, D., Aragon, D. R., Barnett, B. J., Baroni, C., Barron, M., Baxter, J. D., Beers, D., Beilke, M., Bemenderfer, D., Bernard, A., Besch, C. L., Bessesen, M. T., Bethel, J. T., Blue, S., Blum, J. D., Boarden, S., Bolan, R. K., Borgman, J. B., Brar, I., Braxton, B. K., Bredeek, U. F., Brennan, R., Britt, D. E., Bulgin-Coleman, D., Bullock, D. E., Campbell, B., Caras, S., Carroll, J., Casey, K. K., Chiang, F., Cindrich, R. B., Clark, C., Cohen, C., Coley, J., Condoluci, D. V., Contreras, R., Corser, J., Cozzolino, J., Daley, L., Dandridge, D., D'Antuono, V., Darcourt Rizo Patron, J. G., Dehovitz, J. A., Dejesus, E., Desjardin, J., Dietrich, C., Dolce, E., Erickson, D., Faber, L. L., Falbo, J., Farrough, M. J., Farthing, C. F., Ferrell-Gonzalez, P., Flynn, H., Frank, M., Freeman, K. F., French, N., Fujita, N., Gahagan, L., Gilson, I., Goetz, M. B., Goodwin, E., Guity, C. K., Gulick, P., Gunderson, E. R., Hale, C. M., Hannah, K., Henderson, H., Hennessey, K., Henry, W. K., Higgins, D. T., Hodder, S. L., Horowitz, H. W., Howe-Pittman, M., Hubbard, J., Hudson, R., Hunter, H., Hutelmyer, C., Insignares, M. T., Jackson, L., Jenny, L., Johnson, D. L., Johnson, G., Johnson, J., Kaatz, J., Kaczmarski, J., Kagan, S., Kantor, C., Kempner, T., Kieckhaus, K., Kimmel, N., Klaus, B. M., Koeppe, J. R., Koirala, J., Kopka, J., Kostman, J. R., Kozal, M. J., Kumar, A., Lampiris, H., Lamprecht, C., Lattanzi, K. M., Lee, J., Leggett, J., Long, C., Loquere, A., Loveless, K., Lucasti, C. J., Macveigh, M., Makohon, L. H., Markowitz, N. P., Marks, C., Martorell, C., Mcfeaters, E., Mcgee, B., Mcintyre, D. M., Mcmanus, E., Melecio, L. G., Melton, D., Mercado, S., Merrifield, E., Mieras, J. A., Mogyoros, M., Moran, F. M., Murphy, K., Mutic, S., Nadeem, I., Nadler, J. P., Ognjan, A., O'Hearn, M., O'Keefe, K., Okhuysen, P. C., Oldfield, E., Olson, D., Orenstein, R., Ortiz, R., Parpart, F., Pastore-Lange, V., Paul, S., Pavlatos, A., Pearce, D. D., Pelz, R., Peterson, S., Pitrak, D., Powers, S. L., Pujet, H. C., Raaum, J. W., Ravishankar, J., Reeder, J., Reilly, N. A., Reyelt, C., Riddell, J., Rimland, D., Robinson, M. L., Rodriguez, A. E., Rodriguez-Barradas, M. C., Rodriguez Derouen, V., Rosmarin, C., Rossen, W. L., Rouff, J. R., Sampson, J. H., Sands, M., Savini, C., Schrader, S., Schulte, M. M., Scott, R., Seedhom, H., Sension, M., Sheble-Hall, A., Shuter, J., Slater, L. N., Slotten, R., Smith, M., Snap, S., States, D. M., Stringer, G., Summers, K. K., Swanson, K., Sweeton, I. B., Szabo, S., Telzak, E. E., Thompson, M. A., Thompson, S., Ting Hong Bong, C., Vaccaro, A., Vasco, L. M., Vecino, I., Verlinghieri, G. K., Visnegarwala, F., Wade, B. H., Weis, S. E., Weise, J. A., Weissman, S., Wilkin, A. M., Witter, J. H., Wojtusic, L., Wright, T. J., Yeh, V., Young, B., Zeana, C., Zeh, J., Savio, E., Vacarezza, M., and Cauda R. (ORCID:0000-0002-1498-4229)

Abstract

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3–9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was −2 (interquartile range –4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0–4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events)

Published
2015

22. [Occupational safety and health in hospitals of Regione Lombardia. Are there differences among public, private nonprofit and private profit hospitals?]

Author

Marco M Ferrario, Calderini D, Cambiano V, Panizza C, Riboldi L, Pianosi G, Occhipinti E, and Cantoni S

Subjects
Personnel, Hospital, Italy, Hospitals, Public, Surveys and Questionnaires, Humans, Safety, Hospitals, Voluntary, Occupational Health, Hospitals, Private
Abstract

In 2006 an extensive survey took place in all hospitals of Lombardia, to assess, through inspections, the safety conditions and the efficiency of the organisations invested to assure that. During these inspections were evaluated 6 safety sections and hospital organization and efficiency, by means of a questionnaire. The aim was to assess the internal consistency of questionnaire sections, the presence of differences of such scores among public, private non-profit and profit hospitals and the correlations among safety scores and among these latter and efficiency indexes. Significant differences for size factors and efficiency indexes have been pointed out among different types of hospitals. Instead, safety scores showed good internal consistency and have been resulted statistically significant correlated in most cases. For all types of hospital have been observed high values for safety scores, with exception of occupational health service, better organized in public hospitals, and of safety conditions of worker from external agencies, which have been displayed low. This last consideration stick out the need to pay more attention to safety conditions of these workers.

Published
2008

27. Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models

Author

Eaton, J.W., Menzies, N.A., Stover, J., Cambiano, V., Chindelevitch, L., Cori, A., Hontelez, J.A., Humair, S., Kerr, C.C., Klein, D.J., Mishra, S., Mitchell, K.M., Nichols, B.E., Vickerman, P., Bakker, R, Barnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Boily, M.C., Chang, S.T., Cohen, T., Dodd, P.J., Fraser, C., Gopalappa, C., Lundgren, J., Martin, N.K., Mikkelsen, E., Mountain, E., Pham, Q.D., Pickles, M., Phillips, A., Platt, L., Pretorius, C., Prudden, H.J., Salomon, J.A., Vijver, D.A. van de, Vlas, S.J. de, Wagner, B.G., White, R.G., Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Blandford, J., Meyer-Rath, G., Remme, M., Revill, P., Sangrujee, N., Terris-Prestholt, F., Doherty, M., Shaffer, N., Easterbrook, P.J., Hirnschall, G., Hallett, T.B., Eaton, J.W., Menzies, N.A., Stover, J., Cambiano, V., Chindelevitch, L., Cori, A., Hontelez, J.A., Humair, S., Kerr, C.C., Klein, D.J., Mishra, S., Mitchell, K.M., Nichols, B.E., Vickerman, P., Bakker, R, Barnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Boily, M.C., Chang, S.T., Cohen, T., Dodd, P.J., Fraser, C., Gopalappa, C., Lundgren, J., Martin, N.K., Mikkelsen, E., Mountain, E., Pham, Q.D., Pickles, M., Phillips, A., Platt, L., Pretorius, C., Prudden, H.J., Salomon, J.A., Vijver, D.A. van de, Vlas, S.J. de, Wagner, B.G., White, R.G., Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Blandford, J., Meyer-Rath, G., Remme, M., Revill, P., Sangrujee, N., Terris-Prestholt, F., Doherty, M., Shaffer, N., Easterbrook, P.J., Hirnschall, G., and Hallett, T.B.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 138145.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access), BACKGROUND: New WHO guidelines recommend initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive adults with CD4 counts of 500 cells per muL or less, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers have to decide whether to further expand eligibility for antiretroviral therapy accordingly. We aimed to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage. METHODS: We used several independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa (generalised epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), Zambia (generalised epidemic, high antiretroviral therapy coverage), India (concentrated epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), and Vietnam (concentrated epidemic, low antiretroviral therapy coverage)-to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy under scenarios of existing and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses assessed the extension of eligibility to include individuals with CD4 counts of 500 cells per muL or less, or all HIV-positive adults, compared with the previous (2010) recommendation of initiation with CD4 counts of 350 cells per muL or less. We assessed costs from a health-system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost (in US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted to compare competing strategies. Strategies were regarded very cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than the country's 2012 per-head gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040; Zambia: $1425; India: $1489; Vietnam: $1407) and cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than three times the per-head GDP. FINDINGS: In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending eligibility for antiretroviral therapy to adult patients with CD4 counts of 500 cells per muL or less

Published
2014

28. Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models

Author

Eaton, JW, Menzies, NA, Stover, J, Cambiano, V, Chindelevitch, L, Cori, A, Hontelez, Jan, Humair, S, Kerr, CC, Klein, DJ, Mishra, S, Mitchell, KM, Nichols, Brooke, Vickerman, P, Bakker, Roel, Barnighausen, T, Bershteyn, A, Bloom, DE, Boily, MC, Chang, ST, Cohen, T, Dodd, PJ, Fraser, C, Gopalappa, C, Lundgren, J, Martin, NK, Mikkelsen, E, Mountain, E, Pham, QD, Pickles, M, Phillips, A, Platt, L, Pretorius, C, Prudden, HJ, Salomon, JA, van de Vijver, David, de Vlas, Sake, Wagner, BG, White, RG, Wilson, DP, Zhang, Lei, Blandford, J, Meyer-Rath, G, Remme, M, Revill, P, Sangrujee, N, Terris-Prestholt, F, Doherty, M, Shaffer, N, Easterbrook, PJ, Hirnschall, G, Hallett, TB, Eaton, JW, Menzies, NA, Stover, J, Cambiano, V, Chindelevitch, L, Cori, A, Hontelez, Jan, Humair, S, Kerr, CC, Klein, DJ, Mishra, S, Mitchell, KM, Nichols, Brooke, Vickerman, P, Bakker, Roel, Barnighausen, T, Bershteyn, A, Bloom, DE, Boily, MC, Chang, ST, Cohen, T, Dodd, PJ, Fraser, C, Gopalappa, C, Lundgren, J, Martin, NK, Mikkelsen, E, Mountain, E, Pham, QD, Pickles, M, Phillips, A, Platt, L, Pretorius, C, Prudden, HJ, Salomon, JA, van de Vijver, David, de Vlas, Sake, Wagner, BG, White, RG, Wilson, DP, Zhang, Lei, Blandford, J, Meyer-Rath, G, Remme, M, Revill, P, Sangrujee, N, Terris-Prestholt, F, Doherty, M, Shaffer, N, Easterbrook, PJ, Hirnschall, G, and Hallett, TB

Abstract

Background New WHO guidelines recommend initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive adults with CD4 counts of 500 cells per mu L or less, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers have to decide whether to further expand eligibility for antiretroviral therapy accordingly. We aimed to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage. Methods We used several independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa (generalised epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), Zambia (generalised epidemic, high antiretroviral therapy coverage), India (concentrated epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), and Vietnam (concentrated epidemic, low antiretroviral therapy coverage)-to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy under scenarios of existing and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses assessed the extension of eligibility to include individuals with CD4 counts of 500 cells per mu L or less, or all HIV-positive adults, compared with the previous (2010) recommendation of initiation with CD4 counts of 350 cells per mu L or less. We assessed costs from a health-system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost (in US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted to compare competing strategies. Strategies were regarded very cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than the country's 2012 per-head gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040; Zambia: $1425; India: $1489; Vietnam: $1407) and cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than three times the per-head GDP. Findings In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending eligibility for antiretroviral therapy to adult patients with CD4 counts of 500 cells per mu L or les

Published
2014

29. Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of potential responses to future high levels of transmitted HIV drug resistance in antiretroviral drug-naive populations beginning treatment: modelling study and economic analysis

Author

Phillips, An, Cambiano, V, Miners, A, Revill, P, Pillay, D, Lundgren, Jd, Bennett, D, Raizes, E, Nakagawa, F, De Luca, Andrea, Vitoria, M, Barcarolo, J, Perriens, J, Jordan, Mr, Bertagnolio, S., De Luca, Andrea (ORCID:0000-0002-8311-6935), Phillips, An, Cambiano, V, Miners, A, Revill, P, Pillay, D, Lundgren, Jd, Bennett, D, Raizes, E, Nakagawa, F, De Luca, Andrea, Vitoria, M, Barcarolo, J, Perriens, J, Jordan, Mr, Bertagnolio, S., and De Luca, Andrea (ORCID:0000-0002-8311-6935)

Abstract

With continued roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, evidence is emerging of increasing levels of transmitted drug-resistant HIV. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different potential public health responses to substantial levels of transmitted drug resistance.

Published
2014

30. Cost-effectiveness of HIV drug resistance testing to inform switching to second line antiretroviral therapy in low income settings

Author

Phillips, A, Cambiano, V, Nakagawa, F, Magubu, T, Miners, A, Ford, D, Pillay, D, De Luca, Andrea, Lundgren, J, Revill, P., De Luca, Andrea (ORCID:0000-0002-8311-6935), Phillips, A, Cambiano, V, Nakagawa, F, Magubu, T, Miners, A, Ford, D, Pillay, D, De Luca, Andrea, Lundgren, J, Revill, P., and De Luca, Andrea (ORCID:0000-0002-8311-6935)

Abstract

To guide future need for cheap resistance tests for use in low income settings, we assessed cost-effectiveness of drug resistance testing as part of monitoring of people on first line ART - with switching from first to second line ART being conditional on NNRTI drug resistance mutations being identified.

Published
2014

31. HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa

Author

Eaton, J.W., Johnson, L.F., Salomon, J.A., Barnighausen, T., Bendavid, E., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Cambiano, V., Fraser, C., Hontelez, J.A.C., Humair, S., Klein, D.J., Long, E.F., Phillips, A.N., Pretorius, C., Stover, J., Wenger, E.A., Williams, B.G., Hallett, T.B., Eaton, J.W., Johnson, L.F., Salomon, J.A., Barnighausen, T., Bendavid, E., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Cambiano, V., Fraser, C., Hontelez, J.A.C., Humair, S., Klein, D.J., Long, E.F., Phillips, A.N., Pretorius, C., Stover, J., Wenger, E.A., Williams, B.G., and Hallett, T.B.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 108066.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access), BACKGROUND: Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/microl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical models evaluati

Published
2012

32. Hiv treatment as prevention: Models, data, and questions-towards evidence-based decision-making

Author

Bärnighausen, T. (Till), Becker, S. (Stephen), Bendavid, A. (Avrom), Bershteyn, A. (Anna), Blandford, J. (John), Boily, M-C. (Marie-Claude), Burns, D. (David), Cambiano, V. (Valentina), Cohen, M.S. (Myron S.), Cremin, Í. (Íde), Delva, W. (Wim), Dye, C. (Christopher), Eaton, J.W. (Jeffrey), Egger, M. (Matthias), Fraser, C. (Christophe), Galai, N. (Noya), Garnett, D., Ghys, P.D. (Peter D.), Hallett, T.B. (Timothy), Heaton, L. (Laura), Holmes, C.B. (Charles ), Hontelez, J.A.C. (Jan), Jewell, B. (Britta), Keiser, O. (Olivia), Klein, D.J. (David), Lima, V. (Viviane), Long, E. (Elisa), Lyerla, R. (Rob), Marais, C. (Christiaan), Meng, F. (Fei), Meyer-Rath, G. (Gesine), Miller, W.C. (William C.), Muraguri, N. (Nicholas), Nichols, B.E. (Brooke), Nigmatulina, K.R. (Karima R.), Over, M. (Mead), Padian, N. (Nancy), Phillips, A. (Andrew), Pretorius, C. (Carel), Rousseau, C. (Christine), Salomon, J.A. (Joshua A), Sangrujee, N. (Nalinee), Serwadda, D., Tanser, F. (Frank), Vesga, J.F. (Juan F.), Vickerman, K., Walker, D. (Damian), Wang, R. (Rui), Welte, A. (Alex), White, R.G. (Richard), Williams, B. (Brian), Wilson, D.C. (David), Wilson, D. (David), Zaba, B. (Basia), Bärnighausen, T. (Till), Becker, S. (Stephen), Bendavid, A. (Avrom), Bershteyn, A. (Anna), Blandford, J. (John), Boily, M-C. (Marie-Claude), Burns, D. (David), Cambiano, V. (Valentina), Cohen, M.S. (Myron S.), Cremin, Í. (Íde), Delva, W. (Wim), Dye, C. (Christopher), Eaton, J.W. (Jeffrey), Egger, M. (Matthias), Fraser, C. (Christophe), Galai, N. (Noya), Garnett, D., Ghys, P.D. (Peter D.), Hallett, T.B. (Timothy), Heaton, L. (Laura), Holmes, C.B. (Charles ), Hontelez, J.A.C. (Jan), Jewell, B. (Britta), Keiser, O. (Olivia), Klein, D.J. (David), Lima, V. (Viviane), Long, E. (Elisa), Lyerla, R. (Rob), Marais, C. (Christiaan), Meng, F. (Fei), Meyer-Rath, G. (Gesine), Miller, W.C. (William C.), Muraguri, N. (Nicholas), Nichols, B.E. (Brooke), Nigmatulina, K.R. (Karima R.), Over, M. (Mead), Padian, N. (Nancy), Phillips, A. (Andrew), Pretorius, C. (Carel), Rousseau, C. (Christine), Salomon, J.A. (Joshua A), Sangrujee, N. (Nalinee), Serwadda, D., Tanser, F. (Frank), Vesga, J.F. (Juan F.), Vickerman, K., Walker, D. (Damian), Wang, R. (Rui), Welte, A. (Alex), White, R.G. (Richard), Williams, B. (Brian), Wilson, D.C. (David), Wilson, D. (David), and Zaba, B. (Basia)

Abstract

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for those infected with HIV can prevent onward transmission of infection, but biological efficacy alone is not enough to guide policy decisions about the role of ART in reducing HIV incidence. Epidemiology, economics, demography, statistics, biology, and mathematical modelling will be central in framing key decisions in the optimal use of ART. PLoS Medicine, with the HIV Modelling Consortium, has commissioned a set of articles that examine different aspects of HIV treatment as prevention with a forward-looking research agenda. Interlocking themes across these articles are discussed in this introduction. We hope that this article, and others in the collection, will provide a foundation upon which greater collaborations between disciplines will be formed, and will afford deeper insights into the key factors involved, to help strengthen the support for evidence-based decision-making in HIV prevention.

Published
2012
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33. HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

Author

Eaton, JW, Johnson, LF, Salomon, JA, Barnighausen, T, Bendavid, E, Bershteyn, A, Bloom, DE, Cambiano, V, Fraser, C, Hontelez, Jan, Humair, S, Klein, DJ, Long, EF, Phillips, AN, Pretorius, C, Stover, J, Wenger, EA, Williams, BG, Hallett, TB, Eaton, JW, Johnson, LF, Salomon, JA, Barnighausen, T, Bendavid, E, Bershteyn, A, Bloom, DE, Cambiano, V, Fraser, C, Hontelez, Jan, Humair, S, Klein, DJ, Long, EF, Phillips, AN, Pretorius, C, Stover, J, Wenger, EA, Williams, BG, and Hallett, TB

Abstract

Background: Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. Methods and Findings: Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/ml and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models Conclusions: Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences

Published
2012

39. [Sick leave risk factors in a sample of women employed in the public sector. The SEMM study]

Author

Marco M Ferrario, Cambiano V, Grassi A, Veronesi G, Merluzzi F, Borchini R, and Cesana G

Subjects
Adult, Public Sector, Adolescent, Risk Factors, Humans, Female, Middle Aged, Sick Leave, Aged
Abstract

OMS reports describe an increase of levels of sickness leaves (SL) at work in all industrialized countries in last decades. Aims of this study are to assess incidence of SL from work in a sample of women public employees and to identify significant factors, among individual, behavioural, familiar, occupational and work strain related. The survey took place between April 1992 and December 1998. After the baseline examination, a two years follow-up was conducted, to detect any SL longer than one day. N. 8123 female employees of the Municipality of Milan were enrolled, undergoing a baseline health examination. They belong to the following municipality sectors (SM): kindergarten, register office, clerks and police. The overall response rate was 76% (3698 females and 2448 males). The present analysis was restricted to female only, who showed almost double incidence of SL than men. Interpolation of logistic models allowed to identify the following predictive independent factors: physical activity in leisure time, work length and social support at work, for incidence of short SL; physical activity at work, hypertension and smoking habit for intermediate SL; and perceived work strain and number of familiar contacts for long SL.

40. [Assessment of job strain and its consequencies in a large public organisation. Findings from the SEMM Study]

Author

Mm, Ferrario, Cimmino L, Andrea Ganna, Cambiano V, Borchini R, and Cesana G

Subjects
Adult, Male, Organizations, Public Sector, Middle Aged, Occupational Diseases, Italy, Cardiovascular Diseases, Risk Factors, Population Surveillance, Surveys and Questionnaires, Humans, Female, Stress, Psychological
Abstract

The demand-control model originally developed by Robert Karasek is in Italy the preferred tool to investigate perceived work stress due to work-related organizational constrains. We wish to report the comprehensive results of the SEMM Study, carried on a wide sample of civil servants. N. 5271 women and 2601 men, employed at the Municipality of Milan in the years 1991-1996 were enrolled into the study. The overall participation rate was high in both gender group (75% or more), indicating a good compliance of employees for health prevention programmes carried out in work settings. Each participant, who has given consent, in addition to the medical examinations and biological tests related to the investigation of work exposures, underwent to a structured procedure to measure cardiovascular risk factors, according to the methods developed in the WHO MONICA Project, job strain adopting the Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ), and the Baecke Questionnaire to investigate major quotes of physical activity. In this contest the JCQ has shown an acceptable level of internal and external consistency as well as of acceptance, measured by employees compliance. Psychological job demand and decision latitude can be assessed with two different JCQ revisions available in Italian, which were validated with the contribution of the author, at different complexity, but with comparable results of weighted scores. For a comprehensive assessment of the working conditions social support at work is also of relevance. In the work public sector considered, the JCQ major scores resulted to be valid descriptors of key aspects of the work organization. The concurrent assessment of sick leaves, known marker of burnout, allows to identify work- and individual-related determinants and, in a specific work setting, to give indications for coping actions which may improve workers' integration. In addition, the assessment of cardiovascular risk factors, carried out with standardised and then reliable methods, allow to measure overall global CVD risk and to identify unhealthy behaviours that can be addressed with specific preventive programmes.

42. [Diagnostic agreement between two different analytic methods for in vitro measurement of specific IgE and comparison with clinical evaluation and in vivo test for ubiquitarian and professional allergens]

Author

Borchini R, Cambiano V, Crespi V, Pinton B, and Marco M Ferrario

Subjects
Adult, Male, Occupational Diseases, Hypersensitivity, Humans, Female, Allergens, Immunoglobulin E, Skin Tests
Abstract

This study surveys the diagnostic agreement between two different analytic systems for the measurement of serum specific IgE (sLgE), Immulite 2000 (IML) and ImmunoCap (CAP), with clinic evaluation and in vivo test. Our sample is represented by 33 adults (27 females and 6 males), with suspect of immediate allergic disease and suspect of sensitization to at least one allergen of the study panel (18 allergens: inhalant, alimentary and professional). All patients have been subjected to Skin Prick Test (SPT) for all the studied allergens, therefore sIgE measurement with IML and CAP systems has been executed (twice for each method) only for the allergens which resulted positive to the diagnostic suspect and to SPT, and for an equal number of allergens chosen by bound randomisation. In vitro methods (IML and CAP), evaluated by K Cohen statistics, give good diagnostic agreement. In the same way, the diagnostic agreement of the used analytic systems both with clinical suspect and with in vivo test is satisfying, with higher K values for IML.

44. Continued high levels of condomless sex in serodifferent couples when the positive partner is on antiretroviral therapy: the PARTNER study

Author

Rodger, A., Phillips, A., Sturgeon, K., Sewell, J., Asboe, D., Fedele, S., Nwokolo, N., Gilson, R., Esteban, N., Jennings, L., Gompels, M., Allan, S., Clay, S., Engler, B., Wandolo, E., Campbell, L., Hobbs, K., Fisher, M., Perry, N., Dhar, J., Mashonganyika, L., O Connell, R., Tawana, C., Bruun, T., Cambiano, V., Collins, S., Nightingale, A., and Jens Lundgren

46. Estimates of resource use in the public-sector health-care system and the effect of strengthening health-care services in Malawi during 2015-19: a modelling study (Thanzi La Onse).

Author

Hallett TB, Mangal TD, Tamuri AU, Arinaminpathy N, Cambiano V, Chalkley M, Collins JH, Cooper J, Gillman MS, Giordano M, Graham MM, Graham W, Hawryluk I, Janoušková E, Jewell BL, Lin IL, Manning Smith R, Manthalu G, Mnjowe E, Mohan S, Molaro M, Ng'ambi W, Nkhoma D, Piatek S, Revill P, Rodger A, Salmanidou D, She B, Smit M, Twea PD, Colbourn T, Mfutso-Bengo J, and Phillips AN

Subjects
Malawi epidemiology, Humans, Female, Male, Models, Theoretical, Adult, Infant, Child, Child, Preschool, Health Resources statistics & numerical data, Adolescent, Public Sector, Delivery of Health Care organization & administration
Abstract

Background: In all health-care systems, decisions need to be made regarding allocation of available resources. Evidence is needed for these decisions, especially in low-income countries. We aimed to estimate how health-care resources provided by the public sector were used in Malawi during 2015-19 and to estimate the effects of strengthening health-care services., Methods: For this modelling study, we used the Thanzi La Onse model, an individual-based simulation model. The scope of the model was health care provided by the public sector in Malawi during 2015-19. Health-care services were delivered during health-care system interaction (HSI) events, which we characterised as occurring at a particular facility level and requiring a particular number of appointments. We developed mechanistic models for the causes of death and disability that were estimated to account for approximately 81% of deaths and approximately 72% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in Malawi during 2015-19, according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates; we computed DALYs incurred in the population as the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. The disease models could interact with one another and with the underlying properties of each person. Each person in the Thanzi La Onse model had specific properties (eg, sex, district of residence, wealth percentile, smoking status, and BMI, among others), for which we measured distribution and evolution over time using demographic and health survey data. We also estimated the effect of different types of health-care system improvement., Findings: We estimated that the public-sector health-care system in Malawi averted 41·2 million DALYs (95% UI 38·6-43·8) during 2015-19, approximately half of the 84·3 million DALYs (81·5-86·9) that the population would otherwise have incurred. DALYs averted were heavily skewed to children aged 0-4 years due to services averting DALYs that would be caused by acute lower respiratory tract infection, HIV or AIDS, malaria, or neonatal disorders. DALYs averted among adults were mostly attributed to HIV or AIDS and tuberculosis. Under a scenario whereby each appointment took the time expected and health-care workers did not work for longer than contracted, the health-care system in Malawi during 2015-19 would have averted only 19·1 million DALYs (95% UI 17·1-22·4), suggesting that approximately 21·3 million DALYS (20·0-23·6) of total effect were derived through overwork of health-care workers. If people becoming ill immediately accessed care, all referrals were successfully completed, diagnostic accuracy of health-care workers was as good as possible, and consumables (ie, medicines) were always available, 28·2% (95% UI 25·7-30·9) more DALYS (ie, 12·2 million DALYs [95% UI 10·9-13·8]) could be averted., Interpretation: The health-care system in Malawi provides substantial health gains with scarce resources. Strengthening interventions could potentially increase these gains, so should be a priority for investigation and investment. An individual-based simulation model of health-care service delivery is valuable for health-care system planning and strengthening., Funding: The Wellcome Trust, UK Research and Innovation, the UK Medical Research Council, and Community Jameel., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests TBH receives research funding from the UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, and The Wellcome Trust, paid to their institution. NA receives research funding from the UK Medical Research Council and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, paid to their institution. VC receives research funding from the UK Medical Research Council and UK Research and Innovation, paid to their institution, and consulting fees from Source Market Access. MC receives research funding from The Wellcome Trust, paid to their institution. JHC receives research funding from UK Research and Innovation and The Wellcome Trust, paid to their institution. JC receives research funding from UK Research and Innovation and The Wellcome Trust, paid to their institution. EJ receives research funding from UK Research and Innovation and The Wellcome Trust, paid to their institution. BLJ receives research funding from the UK Medical Research Council and the UK Department for International Development, paid to their institution. SM receives research funding from UK Research and Innovation and The Wellcome Trust, paid to their institution, and consulting fees from The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. MM receives research funding from UK Research and Innovation and The Wellcome Trust, paid to their institution. TC receives research funding from UK Research and Innovation and The Wellcome Trust, paid to their institution; receives consulting fees from the UN Economic Commission for Africa; and is on a data safety monitoring board for a trial of adolescent mental health in Nepal. ANP receives research funding from The Wellcome Trust, paid to their institution; receives research funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Wellcome Trust, the US National Institutes of Health, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and the EU, paid to their institution; and receives consulting fees from WHO. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Published
2025
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47. Mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of maternal and perinatal healthcare services and interventions on health in sub-Saharan Africa: A scoping review.

Author

Collins JH, Cambiano V, Phillips AN, and Colbourn T

Subjects
Humans, Africa South of the Sahara epidemiology, Female, Pregnancy, Maternal Mortality, Infant, Newborn, Maternal Health Services, Perinatal Care, Models, Theoretical
Abstract

Introduction: Mathematical modelling is a commonly utilised tool to predict the impact of policy on health outcomes globally. Given the persistently high levels of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, mathematical modelling is a potentially valuable tool to guide strategic planning for health and improve outcomes., Methods: The aim of this scoping review was to explore the characteristics of mathematical models and modelling studies evaluating the impact of maternal and/or perinatal healthcare interventions or services on health-related outcomes in the region. A search across three databases was conducted on 2nd November 2023 which returned 8660 potentially relevant studies, from which 60 were included in the final review. Characteristics of these studies, the interventions which were evaluated, the models utilised, and the analyses conducted were extracted and summarised., Results: Findings suggest that the popularity of modelling within this field is increasing over time with most studies published after 2015 and that population-based, deterministic, linear models were most frequently utilised, with the Lives Saved Tool being applied in over half of the reviewed studies (n = 34, 57%). Much less frequently (n = 6) models utilising system-thinking approaches, such as individual-based modelling or systems dynamics modelling, were developed and applied. Models were most applied to estimate the impact of interventions or services on maternal mortality (n = 34, 57%) or neonatal mortality outcomes (n = 39, 65%) with maternal morbidity (n = 4, 7%) and neonatal morbidity (n = 6, 10%) outcomes and stillbirth reported on much less often (n = 14, 23%)., Discussion: Going forward, given that healthcare delivery systems have long been identified as complex adaptive systems, modellers may consider the advantages of applying systems-thinking approaches to evaluate the impact of maternal and perinatal health policy. Such approaches allow for a more realistic and explicit representation of the systems- and individual- level factors which impact the effectiveness of interventions delivered within health systems., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Collins et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Published
2024
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48. Costs of HIV testing services in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic literature review.

Author

Ahmed N, Ong JJ, McGee K, d'Elbée M, Johnson C, Cambiano V, Hatzold K, Corbett EL, Terris-Prestholt F, and Maheswaran H

Subjects
Female, Humans, Male, Africa South of the Sahara, Health Care Costs statistics & numerical data, Mass Screening economics, Mass Screening methods, Self-Testing, HIV Infections diagnosis, HIV Infections economics, HIV Testing economics, HIV Testing methods
Abstract

Objective: To review HIV testing services (HTS) costs in sub-Saharan Africa., Design: A systematic literature review of studies published from January 2006 to October 2020., Methods: We searched ten electronic databases for studies that reported estimates for cost per person tested ($pptested) and cost per HIV-positive person identified ($ppositive) in sub-Saharan Africa. We explored variations in incremental cost estimates by testing modality (health facility-based, home-based, mobile-service, self-testing, campaign-style, and stand-alone), by primary or secondary/index HTS, and by population (general population, people living with HIV, antenatal care male partner, antenatal care/postnatal women and key populations). All costs are presented in 2019US$., Results: Sixty-five studies reported 167 cost estimates. Most reported only $pptested (90%), while (10%) reported the $ppositive. Costs were highly skewed. The lowest mean $pptested was self-testing at $12.75 (median = $11.50); primary testing at $16.63 (median = $10.68); in the general population, $14.06 (median = $10.13). The highest costs were in campaign-style at $27.64 (median = $26.70), secondary/index testing at $27.52 (median = $15.85), and antenatal male partner at $47.94 (median = $55.19). Incremental $ppositive was lowest for home-based at $297.09 (median = $246.75); primary testing $352.31 (median = $157.03); in the general population, $262.89 (median: $140.13)., Conclusion: While many studies reported the incremental costs of different HIV testing modalities, few presented full costs. Although the $pptested estimates varied widely, the costs for stand-alone, health facility, home-based, and mobile services were comparable, while substantially higher for campaign-style HTS and the lowest for HIV self-testing. Our review informs policymakers of the affordability of various HTS to ensure universal access to HIV testing., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Published
2024
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49. Behaviour changes following HIV diagnosis among men who have sex with men in the era of treatment as prevention: data from a prospective study.

Author

Hanum N, Cambiano V, Loncar D, Mandalia S, Sharp A, Lwanga J, Tiraboschi J, Phillips AN, Lampe FC, Beck EJ, and Fox J

Subjects
Humans, Male, Prospective Studies, Adult, London epidemiology, Middle Aged, Unsafe Sex statistics & numerical data, Unsafe Sex psychology, Surveys and Questionnaires, Risk-Taking, Condoms statistics & numerical data, Prevalence, Young Adult, Homosexuality, Male psychology, Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data, HIV Infections diagnosis, HIV Infections prevention & control, HIV Infections psychology, HIV Infections epidemiology, Sexual Behavior psychology, Sexual Partners psychology
Abstract

We described the longitudinal changes in sexual behaviour and associated factors among newly diagnosed with HIV men who have sex with men participating in a prospective observational study from a London HIV clinic (2015-2018). Participants self-completed questionnaires at baseline, months 3 and 12. Information collected included socio-demographic, sexual behaviour, health, lifestyle and social support. Trends in sexual behaviours over one year following diagnosis and associated factors were assessed using generalized estimating equations with logit link. Condomless sex (CLS) dropped from 62.2% at baseline to 47.6% at month-three but increased again to 61.8% at month-12 ( p -trend = 0.790). Serodiscordant-CLS increased between month-three and month-12 (from 13.1% to 35.6%, p -trend < 0.001). The prevalence of serodiscordant-CLS with high risk of transmitting to their partners at month-three was 10.7%. CLS was higher among men who reported recreational drug use (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 3.03, 95%CI 1.47-6.24, p  = 0.003), those with undetectable viral load (aOR 2.17, 95%CI 1.22-3.84, p  = 0.008) and those who agreed with a statement "condoms are not necessary when HIV viral load is undetectable" (aOR 3.41, 95%CI 1.58-7.38, p  = 0.002). MSM continued to engage in CLS after HIV diagnosis, which coincided with U = U publications and increased throughout the study.

Published
2024
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50. Country uptake of WHO recommendations on differentiated HIV testing services approaches: a global policy review.

Author

Kadye T, Jamil MS, Johnson C, Baggaley R, Barr-DiChiara M, and Cambiano V

Subjects
Female, Humans, Pregnancy, Contact Tracing, Counseling, Policy, World Health Organization, HIV Infections diagnosis, HIV Infections prevention & control, HIV Testing
Abstract

Objectives: In 2015 and 2016, WHO issued guidelines on HIV testing services (HTS) highlighting recommendations for a strategic mix of differentiated HTS approaches. The policy review examines the uptake of differentiated HTS approaches recommendations in national policies., Methods: Data were extracted from national policies published between January 2015 and June 2019. The WHO-recommended HTS approaches included facility-based testing, community-based testing, HIV self-testing and provider-assisted referral (or assisted partner notification). Other supportive recommendations include pre-test information, post-test counselling, lay provider testing and rapid testing. Descriptive analyses were conducted to examine inclusion of recommendations in national policies., Results: Of 194 countries worldwide, 65 published policies were identified; 24 WHO Africa region (AFR) countries (51%, 24/47), 21 WHO European region (EUR) (40%, 21/53), 6 WHO Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) (29%, 6/21), 5 Pan-American region (AMR) (14%, 5/35), 5 Western Pacific Region (WPR) (19%, 5/27) and 4 WHO South East Asia Region (SEAR) (36%, 4/11). Only five countries included all recommendations. 63 included a minimum of one. 85% (n=55) included facility-based testing for pregnant women, 75% (n=49) facility-based testing for key populations, 74% (n=48) community-based testing for key populations, 69% (n=45) rapid testing, 57% (n=37) post-test counselling, 45% (n=29) lay provider testing, 38% (n=25) HIV self-testing, 29% (n=19) pre-test information and 25% (n=16) provider-assisted referral. The proportion in each region that included at least one recommendation were: 100% AFR (24/47), 100% EMR (6/6), 100% AMR (5/5), 100% WPR (5/5), 100% SEAR (4/4) and 95% EUR (20/21). AFR followed by EMR included the highest number of reccomendations., Conclusion: There was substantial variability in the uptake of the WHO-differentiated HTS recommendations. Those in EMR included the most WHO-differentiated HTS recommendation followed by AFR. Countries within AMR included the least number of recommendations. Ongoing advocacy and efforts are needed to support the uptake of the WHO-differentiated HTS recommendations in country policies as well as their implementation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Published
2024
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