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This paper begins by contextualizing European views of the rise of China in a broader historical context. Itaddresses the claim, made both by European political leaders and by analysts, that Europe has been naïve, notonly from a geopolitical point of view but, above all from a geo-economic one. It is suggested that efforts tosocialize China into the liberal international order were based, not so much on naïve views of China but ratheron a realistic assessment of the capacities available to Europeans, and their overriding concern to advancetheir economic interests. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was a turning point: previously China was a placefor European investment for access to the Chinese market and a source of cheap imports. After 2008 Chinaitself had become an investor in Europe and this investment in central and Eastern Europe were seen ascreating a “Trojan horse.” Concomitantly, Beijing’s aggressiveness in its neighborhood, as well as PresidentXi Jinping’s increasing authoritarianism (Hong Kong, Xinjiang, post-COVID-19) contributed to a reassessmentof ties with China. From this point Europeans began to put into place defensive mechanisms (shields). The2019 Communication of the European Commission designating China not only as a “partner and (economic)competitor” but also as a “systemic rival” expressed a paradigm shift in European thinking. Two years later,the embrace of the Indo-Pacific as a theater for European action has put Europe into a more offensive posture(swords) in non-military terms. Potentially, this has opened up both a new area of Transatlantic cooperation,but also greater potential for disagreement.

La notion d’Indo-Pacifique est en passe de structurer le discours géostratégique non seulement de nombreux pays de la région (à commencer par le Japon – son berceau originel – et l’Australie), mais aussi de plusieurs pays occidentaux. Les Etats-Unis ont déjà rebaptisé leur United States Pacific Command en United States Indo-Pacific Command. En Europe, la France a été l’un des premiers pays de l’UE à faire de l’Indo-Pacifique une de ses priorités géopolitiques, comme en a témoigné le discours d’Emmanuel Macron du 2 mai 2018 à Garden Island (Sydney). Depuis, l’Allemagne a formulé sa propre vision de la zone en octobre 2020, suivie peu après par les Pays Bas. A cette liste de pays européens, il faut ajouter le Royaume-Uni qui cherche lui aussi à se tourner vers l’Asie, notamment pour amortir les conséquences du Brexit.

Depuis l'exode forcé des Rohingyas, qualifié par le secrétariat de l'ONU en 2017 de « génocide », la Birmanie est un pays fortement présent sur la scène médiatique. Le pays est aujourd'hui en proie à une autre crise, une crise politique : le gouvernement civil en place vient en effet d'être victime d'un coup d'État. Constance Rousselle, chargée d'études au sein de la Direction général de l'Institut d'Études de Géopolitique Appliquée, s'est entretenue avec David Camroux, chercheur spécialisé dans l'étude des systèmes politiques asiatiques au Centre de recherches internationales (CERI) de Sciences Po Paris.

Le 1er février, la junte militaire birmane opère un coup d’État quelques minutes avant la prestation de serment des députés nouvellement élus démocratiquement; entraînant dans son sillage une vague de protestations devenue aujourd’hui déferlante de désobéissance civile. Quels enjeux dans ce pays à la politique instable, dans lequel n’ont jamais su s’apaiser les tensions post-coloniales ? Réponses avec David Camroux, chercheur honoraire au Centre de Recherches Internationales (CERI), spécialiste de l’Asie du Sud-Est.

Le treizième congrès du Parti communiste du Viêt Nam a été placé sous le signe de la continuité. Le Parti contrôle toujours étroitement le pouvoir et son secrétaire général a été reconduit.

La pandémie n’épargne pas l’Asie du Sud-Est, mais son impact sanitaire et économique n’est pas le même dans tous les pays, aux modèles de croissance et modes de gouvernance différents -- Il n’y a pas eu, en Asie du Sud-Est comme ailleurs, de réponse régionale coordonnée à la pandémie de Covid-19. Au contraire, celle-ci a mis sous le feu des projecteurs les différences entre les modes de gouvernance qui opèrent dans la région, et les fragilités d’ordre économique et sociétal qui en résultent...

The term ‘Indo-Pacific’ has now entered into the lexicon of the Brussels-linked foreign policy community. German strategic thinker General Karl Haushofer created the geographical denomination of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ in 1924. A century later, in October 2020, the German Foreign Ministry framed its Asia policy guidelines as directed towards the Indo-Pacific region. [First paragraph]

In justifying his Brexit posture, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson explained that, when it comes to the EU ‘cake’, he was ‘pro having it and pro eating it’. ‘Cakeism’ also forms the approach of the ten ASEAN countries to their own regional arrangement. Unlike the European Union, however, membership of ASEAN has minimal cost to national sovereignty while also providing a veneer of regional solidarity to promote national interests...

Entretien avec David Camroux par Céline Clément, , Déléguée Asie du Sud, Pacifique & Océanie de l'Institut d'Études de Géopolitique Appliquée.

Quelques cas de contamination en plein mois d’août : Auckland reconfine aussitôt. C’est que la Nouvelle-Zélande est dirigée par une femme moderne qui est aussi une femme à poigne. Elle avait mis la Nouvelle-Zélande sur la carte du monde lors de l’attentat terroriste de Christchurch, elle double la mise par sa détermination dans la lutte contre le virus. Où Jacinda Ardern s’arrêtera-t-elle ?

Jacques Rupnik’s article on Viktor Orban in Hungary has shown how tempting the opportunity provided by the COVID-19 pandemic has been for autocrats to entrench their rule, especially when they are governing within the context of dysfunctional democracies. In general terms, dealing with the pandemic has seen governments worldwide being given extended emergency powers, thus limiting the power of their legislative and judicial branches of the state, and also, limiting civil liberties, as well as expanding executive control of resources.Yet, at the same time, responses to the pandemic also reveal the particular characteristics of democratically elected autocratic power and the existence, or not, of the checks and balances required for blocking its descent into rule of a more authoritarian kind. The action of President Rodrigo ‘Digong’ Duterte — aka ‘The Punisher’ or ‘Duterte Harry’ —would seem to suggest that in Southeast Asia, as in Central Europe, the pandemic has generated political repercussions of a possibly enduring nature.; Le récent article de Jacques Rupnik sur la Hongrie de Viktor Orban a montré à quel point la pandémie du Covid-19 a représenté une opportunité pour les autocrates de renforcer leur emprise, notamment lorsqu’ils gouvernent dans un contexte de démocratie dysfonctionnelle. De manière générale, la gestion de l’épidémie a nécessité que les gouvernements se dotent de compétences exceptionnelles, limitant ainsi les pouvoirs des branches législative et judiciaire de l’État et les libertés publiques, qui leur permettent de contrôler les ressources du pays. Dans le même temps, les réponses apportées à la pandémie par les politiques ont également révélé les caractéristiques particulières des dirigeants autocrates (élus démocratiquement) et l’état de l’équilibre des pouvoirs censé empêcher le glissement vers une forme de gouvernement encore plus autoritaire au sein des Etats qu’ils gouvernent. L’action du Président Rodrigo ‘Digong’ Duterte – surnommé The Punisher (Celui qui punit) ou Duterte Harry – semble suggérer qu’en Asie du sud-est, comme en Europe centrale, la pandémie pourrait avoir d’importantes répercussions politiques.

Les élections législatives de mai dernier, remportées par le Premier ministre sortant de centre droit, sont le reflet d'une société fracturée et en proie au doute sur la politique étrangère à mener.

Populism is characterized in the scientific literature as a thin ideology, a strategy, a political style or a combination of all three, pertinent to all political practice. Insights drawn from the observation of this global phenomenon are useful for EU policymakers to decipher political leadership in Southeast Asia. They provide a grid for evaluating Southeast Asian political leaders and exploring differences between their rhetoric and their practice. A further unpackaging of populism situates and draws out contradictions both in the rhetoric and practice of political leaders. Nevertheless, a concern with individual political leaders must be brought into focus with an understanding of political structures and regime types. These three analytical grids placed in an overlay, allow for an analysis that can help generate policy responses. Populism studies have become a sub-discipline in the areas of comparative politics and comparative sociology. Yet a great deal of this literature looks at the demand side, in particular populations while perhaps not giving sufficient attention to the supply side of those political leaders who create and encourage the populist demand. With its diversity of political cultures, regime types and types of leadership, Southeast Asia provides a rich terrain for such study and a challenge to policy makers.

Le régime de Rodrigo Duterte, élu président des Philippines en 2016, doit-il être considéré comme une variante du populisme ou un phénomène spécifiquement philippin ? Les premières années du mandat Duterte traduisent un "populisme punitif" qu'incarne sa "guerre contre la drogue" et qui fait craindre un dérapage vers l'autoritarisme.

A third of the way through his presidency, is Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte already a spent force? He would seem to think so himself. Duterte mused in August and December 2018 of resigning if he could be assured that he would be replaced by Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. — the son of former presidential strongman, Ferdinand Marcos. (First paragraph)

Entretien avec David Camroux qui présente le projet Horizon 2020 "Competing Regional Integrations in Southeast Asia" (CRISEA).

La diplomatie vietnamienne est en plein renouveau. Les relations établies avec la Chine se veulent plus conventionnelles et celles avec les Etats-Unis plus étroites.

If the main foreign policy objective of Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte was to make his archipelagic nation the centre of international relations concerns in the Asia Pacific, he has succeeded beyond expectations. Coined a ‘popularly elected despot’ by Chito Gascon of the Philippines’ Commission on Human Rights, Duterte’s diplomatic flurries within Asia have sparked conversations among international observers, many of which have concentrated on their implications for the US pivot to Asia and US–China rivalry. [First paragraph]

Même si les appartenances confessionnelles y sont mises en avant, les conflits qui affectent la région ont d'autres motivations, liées aux revendications territoriales et aux identités linguistiques. L'Asie du Sud-Est est sans doute la région la plus hétérogène de la planète sur le plan religieux. Y cohabitent l'hindouisme, l'islam (l'Indonésie est le plus grand pays musulman du monde), plusieurs variantes du bouddhisme (theravada, mahayana), le christianisme (catholique surtout), le confucianisme, le taoïsme…

From my point of view, the scholar of Asia today is a ‘global scholar’, embedded not only in his/her area studies specialization, but also in constant intellectual dialogue with others in the same discipline, but focused on other Area studies fields. In practice, by dint of the complexity of the ‘object’, we are studying to becoming interdisciplinary. In short, the scholar of Asia today not only has greater savoir, s/he has an enhanced savoir faire: in a virtuous circle of scientific dialogue, greater interdisciplinarity leads to today’s Asia scholar making a more substantial contribution to his/her ‘home’ discipline. Below, I shall argue the case for political science...

[Book abstract] This book examines the drivers of regionalism and integration in both Europe and Asia and seeks to forge comparative perspectives between the two regions. Comprising contributions from scholars, analysts and policymakers, this volume explores and debates how and why regional bodies such as the European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are formed and sustained. Furthermore, it examines the drivers of, and impediments to, regionalism and integration. The debates regarding what and who constitute drivers are presented in a fresh, thematic and comprehensive manner. Leadership and core states are also critically examined, whilst material, ideational and normative factors are all assessed comparatively. Significantly, in light of the global financial crisis, the book considers the role of crisis as a driver of regionalism and integration. This book will be of interest to students, scholars and policymakers interested in Asian and European politics and comparative politics.

What if the reprehensible execution in Indonesia of seven foreigners on 29th April was a deliberate form of public diplomacy? The refusal of President Joko Widodo to countenance the pleas of foreign leaders and offer clemency has been interpreted in a number of ways, notably as that of a contested head of state in a fragile democracy heeding the voice of public opinion which, apparently in Indonesia, overwhelmingly supports the death penalty for drug trafficking...

On 29 April Indonesia executed seven foreigners and one Indonesian for drug offences. The refusal of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to offer clemency despite pleas from foreign leaders has been analysed in a number of ways. Most have interpreted Jokowi’s decision as that of a contested head of state in a fragile democracy heeding public opinion, which seems to overwhelmingly (86 per cent in a recent poll) support the death penalty for drug trafficking. But was his decision instead a deliberate act of public diplomacy, designed to send signals to those missing the Sukarno era?

It may appear incongruous and, to some at least, offensive to compare the present Crown Prince (aged 62) and heir apparent to the Thai throne with the second president of North Vietnam and, after reunification, the first president of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. After all, the putative ‘predecessor’ of the former, King Bhumibol (Rama IX), while ailing, still remains on the throne and is still the more than ceremonial head of state of the Thai kingdom. As for Tôn Duc Thang’s predecessor, Ho Chi Minh, he died in 1969 and Tôn himself passed away in 1980 at the age of 92. Yet a recent trip to neighbouring Vietnam has caused me to think again on political developments in the Southeast country with which I am at present most concerned, Thailand, and the parallels and divergences in the historical trajectories of these two Southeast Asian nations...

Book abstract: This book brings together 30 papers commissioned from 2011 to 2013 by the EU-funded Europe–China Research and Advice Network (ECRAN). These papers, thematically grouped in sections on economics, society and politics, were written by some of the world's leading China experts in Europe, and give a European perspective of this complex relationship. The papers provide a broad overview of how Europeans see the key challenges currently faced by China and Europe as well as a unique insight into the related policy aspects of the vexed and complex relationship of the two largest trading partners in the world.

Après des mois de manifestations opposant classes populaires pro gouvernement et élites urbaines pro monarchie, les militaires ont repris le pouvoir à Bangkok. Et ils ne sont pas pressés de le rendre.

EUBULLETIN has talked to Professor David Camroux – Senior Lecturer in Asian Studies at Sciences Po in Paris – about European Union’s FTA negotiations with Japan, on its economic competition with the U.S. in Asia, and whether the EU is a model or inspiration for other regional integration processes.

General Prayuth Chan-ocha, the head of the Thai Army, having just three days earlier urged all parties to act within constitutional limits, on 28 February hinted at the possibility of resorting to 'a special method' to resolve the political crisis in Thailand, now in its fourth month...

A première vue, le mouvement de protestation de Thaïlande présente des similitudes avec celui de Kiev. Contrairement aux Ukrainiens, les manifestants de Bangkok ne demandent pas une meilleure représentation démocratique...

The attempt on Monday 13 January to shut down Bangkok, orchestrated by the People's Democratic Reform Committee led by Suthep Thaugsuban, a former Deputy Prime Minister and member of the opposition Democrat Party, does not seem to have achieved its objective...

Writing in the social sciences on contemporary Burma/Myanmar is becoming an increasingly hazardous intellectual exercise. Given the speed of change within the country described—perhaps as an expression of hope—as a transition, anything written seems out of date, and therefore of mere historical interest, by the time it is published. This book is no exception, although as argued below, it has a number of positive features that help elucidate the ongoing changes in Myanmar itself. A preliminary...