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PURPOSE: To determine pathways to endometrial or ovarian cancer diagnosis by comparing health service utilization between cancer cases and matched cancer-free controls, using linked health records. METHODS: From cancer registry records, we identified 238 incident endometrial and 167 ovarian cancer cases diagnosed during 2006-2013 in the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort (142,973 female participants). Each case was matched to four cancer-free controls on birthdate, sex, place of residence, smoking status, and body mass index. The use of relevant health services during the 13-18-, 7-12-, 0-6-, and 0-1-months pre-diagnosis for cases and the corresponding dates for their matched controls was determined through linkage with subsidized medical services and hospital records. RESULTS: Healthcare utilization diverged between women with cancer and controls in the 0-6-months, particularly 0-1 months, pre-diagnosis. In the 0-1 months, 74.8% of endometrial and 50.3% of ovarian cases visited a gynecologist/gynecological oncologist, 11.3% and 59.3% had a CA125 test, 5.5% and 48.5% an abdominal pelvic CT scan, and 34.5% and 30.5% a transvaginal pelvic ultrasound, respectively (versus ≤ 1% of matched controls). Moreover, 25.1% of ovarian cancer cases visited an emergency department in the 0-1-months pre-diagnosis (versus 1.3% of matched controls), and GP visits were significantly more common for cases than controls in this period. CONCLUSION: Most women with endometrial or ovarian cancer accessed recommended specialists and tests in the 0-1-months pre-diagnosis, but a high proportion of women with ovarian cancer visited an emergency department. This reinforces the importance of timely specialist referral.

Background: Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) decreases cancer burden through removal of precancerous lesions and early detection of cancer. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted organised CRC screening programs worldwide, with some programs completely suspending screening and others experiencing significant decreases in participation and diagnostic follow-up. This study estimated the global impact of screening disruptions on CRC outcomes, and potential effects of catch-up screening. Methods: Organised screening programs were identified in 29 countries, and data on participation rates and COVID-related changes to screening in 2020 were extracted where available. Four independent microsimulation models (ASCCA, MISCAN-Colon, OncoSim, and Policy1-Bowel) were used to estimate the long-term impact on CRC cases and deaths, based on decreases to screening participation in 2020. For countries where 2020 participation data were not available, changes to screening were approximated based on excess mortality rates. Catch-up strategies involving additional screening in 2021 were also simulated. Findings: In countries for which direct data were available, organised CRC screening volumes at a country level decreased by an estimated 1.3–40.5% in 2020. Globally, it is estimated that COVID-related screening decreases led to a deficit of 7.4 million fewer faecal screens performed in 2020. In the absence of any organised catch-up screening, this would lead to an estimated 13,000 additional CRC cases and 7,900 deaths globally from 2020 to 2050; 79% of the additional cases and 85% of additional deaths could have been prevented with catch-up screening, respectively. Interpretation: COVID-19-related disruptions to screening will cause excess CRC cases and deaths, but appropriately implemented catch-up screening could have reduced the burden by over 80%. Careful management of any disruption is key to improving the resilience of colorectal cancer screening programs. Funding: The author

Background: To inform effective genomic medicine strategies, it is important to examine current approaches and gaps in well-established applications. Lynch syndrome (LS) causes 3-5% of colorectal cancers (CRCs). While guidelines commonly recommend LS tumour testing of all CRC patients, implementation in health systems is known to be highly variable. To provide insights on the heterogeneity in practice and current bottlenecks in a high-income country with universal healthcare, we characterise the approaches and gaps in LS testing and referral in seven Australian hospitals across three states. Method(s): We obtained surgery, pathology, and genetics services data for 1,624 patients who underwent CRC resections from 01/01/2017 to 31/12/2018 in the included hospitals. Result(s): Tumour testing approaches differed between hospitals, with 0-19% of patients missing mismatch repair deficiency test results (total 211/1,624 patients). Tumour tests to exclude somatic MLH1 loss were incomplete at five hospitals (42/187 patients). Of 74 patients with tumour tests completed appropriately and indicating high risk of LS, 36 (49%) were missing a record of referral to genetics services for diagnostic testing, with higher missingness for older patients (0% of patients aged <= 40 years, 76% of patients aged > 70 years). Of 38 patients with high-risk tumour test results and genetics services referral, diagnostic testing was carried out for 25 (89%) and identified a LS pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant for 11 patients (44% of 25; 0.7% of 1,624 patients). Conclusion(s): Given the LS testing and referral gaps, further work is needed to identify strategies for successful integration of LS testing into clinical care, and provide a model for hereditary cancers and broader genomic medicine. Standardised reporting may help clinicians interpret tumour test results and initiate further actions.Copyright © 2022, The Author(s).

OBJECTIVE: To review the first two years of the primary human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening programme in an HPV vaccinated population. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Australia. PARTICIPANTS: 3 745 318 women with a primary HPV test between 1 December 2017 and 31 December 2019; most women aged <40 years had previously been offered vaccination against HPV16 and HPV18. INTERVENTIONS: Primary HPV screening with referral if HPV16 or HPV18 (HPV16/18) positive and triage with liquid based cytology testing (threshold atypical squamous cells-cannot exclude high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) for women who were positive for high risk HPV types other than 16/18. A 12 month follow-up HPV test was recommended in triaged women with a negative or low grade cytology result, with referral if they tested positive for any high risk HPV type at follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of women who had attended for their first HPV screening test, tested positive, and were referred for colposcopy; and short term risk of detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or worse, CIN grade 3 or worse, or cancer. RESULTS: 54.6% (n=3 507 281) of an estimated 6 428 677 eligible women aged 25-69 had undergone their first HPV test by the end of 2019. Among those attending for routine screening, positivity for HPV16/18 and for HPV types not 16/18 was, respectively, 2.0% and 6.6% in women aged 25-69 (n=3 045 844) and 2.2% and 13.3% in highly vaccinated cohorts of women aged 25-34 (n=768 362). Colposcopy referral (ages 25-69 years) was 3.5%, increasing to an estimated 6.2% after accounting for women who had not yet had a 12 month repeat test. Cervical cancer was detected in 0.98% (456/46 330) of women positive for HPV16/18 at baseline, including 0.32% (89/28 003) of women with HPV16/18 and negative cytology. Women with HPV types not 16/18 and negative or low grade cytology at both baseline and 12 months were at low risk of serious disease (3.4% CIN grade 3 or

BACKGROUND: To inform effective genomic medicine strategies, it is important to examine current approaches and gaps in well-established applications. Lynch syndrome (LS) causes 3-5% of colorectal cancers (CRCs). While guidelines commonly recommend LS tumour testing of all CRC patients, implementation in health systems is known to be highly variable. To provide insights on the heterogeneity in practice and current bottlenecks in a high-income country with universal healthcare, we characterise the approaches and gaps in LS testing and referral in seven Australian hospitals across three states. METHODS: We obtained surgery, pathology, and genetics services data for 1,624 patients who underwent CRC resections from 01/01/2017 to 31/12/2018 in the included hospitals. RESULTS: Tumour testing approaches differed between hospitals, with 0-19% of patients missing mismatch repair deficiency test results (total 211/1,624 patients). Tumour tests to exclude somatic MLH1 loss were incomplete at five hospitals (42/187 patients). Of 74 patients with tumour tests completed appropriately and indicating high risk of LS, 36 (49%) were missing a record of referral to genetics services for diagnostic testing, with higher missingness for older patients (0% of patients aged ≤ 40 years, 76% of patients aged > 70 years). Of 38 patients with high-risk tumour test results and genetics services referral, diagnostic testing was carried out for 25 (89%) and identified a LS pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant for 11 patients (44% of 25; 0.7% of 1,624 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Given the LS testing and referral gaps, further work is needed to identify strategies for successful integration of LS testing into clinical care, and provide a model for hereditary cancers and broader genomic medicine. Standardised reporting may help clinicians interpret tumour test results and initiate further actions.

BACKGROUND: In Australia in 2017, 89% of 15-year-old females and 86% of 15-year-old males had received at least one dose of the HPV vaccine. However, considerable variation in HPV vaccination initiation (dose one) across schools remains. It is important to understand the school-level characteristics most strongly associated with low initiation and their contribution to the overall between-school variation. METHODS: A population-based ecological analysis was conducted using school-level data for 2016 on all adolescent students eligible for HPV vaccination in three Australian jurisdictions. We conducted logistic regression to determine school-level factors associated with lower HPV vaccination initiation (< 75% dose 1 uptake) and estimated the population attributable risk (PAR) and the proportion of schools with the factor (school-level prevalence). RESULTS: The factors most strongly associated with lower initiation, and their prevalence were; small schools (OR = 9.3, 95%CI = 6.1-14.1; 33% of schools), special education schools (OR = 5.6,95%CI = 3.7-8.5; 8% of schools), higher Indigenous enrolments (OR = 2.7,95% CI:1.9-3.7; 31% of schools), lower attendance rates (OR = 2.6,95%CI = 1.7-3.7; 35% of schools), remote location (OR = 2.6,95%CI = 1.6-4.3; 6% of schools,) and lower socioeconomic area (OR = 1.8,95% CI = 1.3-2.5; 33% of schools). The highest PARs were small schools (PAR = 79%, 95%CI:76-82), higher Indigenous enrolments (PAR = 38%, 95%CI: 31-44) and lower attendance rate (PAR = 37%, 95%CI: 29-46). CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that initiatives to support schools that are smaller, with a higher proportion of Indigenous adolescents and lower attendance rates may contribute most to reducing the variation of HPV vaccination uptake observed at a school-level in these jurisdictions. Estimating population-level coverage at the school-level is useful to guide policy and prioritise resourcing to support school-based vaccination programs.

PURPOSE: To quantify the relationship of cancer diagnosis to workforce participation in Australia, according to cancer type, clinical features and personal characteristics. METHODS: Questionnaire data (2006-2009) from participants aged 45-64 years (n=163,556) from the population-based 45 and Up Study (n=267,153) in New South Wales, Australia, were linked to cancer registrations to ascertain cancer diagnoses up to enrolment. Modified Poisson regression estimated age- and sex-adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) for non-participation in the paid workforce-in participants with cancer (n=8,333) versus without (n=155,223), for 13 cancer types. RESULTS: Overall, 42% of cancer survivors and 29% of people without cancer were out of the workforce (PR=1.18; 95%CI=1.15-1.21). Workforce non-participation varied substantively by cancer type, being greatest for multiple myeloma (1.83; 1.53-2.18), oesophageal (1.70; 1.13-2.58) and lung cancer (1.68; 1.45-1.93) and moderate for colorectal (1.23; 1.15-1.33), breast (1.11; 1.06-1.16) and prostate cancer (1.06; 0.99-1.13). Long-term survivors, 5 or more years post-diagnosis, had 12% (7-16%) greater non-participation than people without cancer, and non-participation was greater with recent diagnosis, treatment or advanced stage. Physical disability contributed substantively to reduced workforce participation, regardless of cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer survivors aged 45-64 continue to participate in the workforce. However, participation is lower than in people without cancer, varying by cancer type, and is reduced particularly around the time of diagnosis and treatment and with advanced disease. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: While many cancer survivors continue with paid work, participation is reduced. Workforce retention support should be tailored to survivor preferences, cancer type and cancer journey stage.

BACKGROUND: Long-term projections of cancer incidence and mortality estimate the future burden of cancer in a population, and can be of great use in informing the planning of health services and the management of resources. We aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates and numbers of new cases and deaths up until 2044 for all cancers combined and for 21 individual cancer types in Australia. We also illustrate the potential effect of treatment delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic on future colorectal cancer mortality rates. METHODS: In this statistical modelling study, cancer incidence and mortality rates in Australia from 2020 to 2044 were projected based on data up to 2017 and 2019, respectively. Cigarette smoking exposure (1945-2019), participation rates in the breast cancer screening programme (1996-2019), and prostate-specific antigen testing rates (1994-2020) were included where relevant. The baseline projection model using an age-period-cohort model or generalised linear model for each cancer type was selected based on model fit statistics and validation with pre-COVID-19 observed data. To assess the impact of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic on colorectal cancer mortality, we obtained data on incidence, survival, prevalence, and cancer treatment for colorectal cancer from different authorities. The relative risks of death due to system-caused treatment delays were derived from a published systematic review. Numbers of excess colorectal cancer deaths were estimated using the relative risk of death per week of treatment delay and different durations of delay under a number of hypothetical scenarios. FINDINGS: Projections indicate that in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic effects, the age-standardised incidence rate for all cancers combined for males would decline over 2020-44, and for females the incidence rate would be relatively stable in Australia. The mortality rates for all cancers combined for both males and females are expected to con

PURPOSE: Lynch syndrome-related colorectal cancer (CRC) risk substantially varies by mismatch repair (MMR) gene. We evaluated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of MMR gene-tailored colonoscopic surveillance. METHODS: We first estimated sex- and MMR gene-specific cumulative lifetime risk of first CRC without colonoscopic surveillance using an optimization algorithm. Next, we harnessed these risk estimates in a microsimulation model, "Policy1-Lynch," and compared 126 colonoscopic surveillance strategies against no surveillance. RESULTS: The most cost-effective strategy was 3-yearly surveillance from age 25 to 70 years (pathogenic variants [path_] in MLH1 [path_MLH1], path_MSH2) with delayed surveillance for path_MSH6 (age 30-70 years) and path_PMS2 (age 35-70 years) heterozygotes (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = Australian dollars (A) $8,833/life-year saved). This strategy averted 60 CRC deaths (153 colonoscopies per death averted) over the lifetime of 1000 confirmed patients with Lynch syndrome (vs no surveillance). This also reduced colonoscopies by 5% without substantial change in health outcomes (vs nontailored 3-yearly surveillance from 25-70 years). Generally, starting surveillance at age 25 (vs 20) years was more cost-effective with minimal effect on life-years saved and starting 5 to 10 years later for path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 heterozygotes (vs path_MLH1 and path_MSH2) further improved cost-effectiveness. Surveillance end age (70/75/80 years) had a minor effect. Three-yearly surveillance strategies were more cost-effective (vs 1 or 2-yearly) but prevented 3 fewer CRC deaths. CONCLUSION: MMR gene-specific colonoscopic surveillance would be effective and cost-effective.

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and same-day treatment for cervical screening in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, few published data exist on the validity of the strategy. We aimed to evaluate the clinical performance, treatment completion rates, adverse events profile, and acceptability of a fully integrated strategy, comprising point-of-care HPV DNA testing of self-collected specimens and same-day thermal ablation, for screening of cervical cancer in women in Papua New Guinea. METHODS: HPV-STAT was a large-scale, prospective, single-arm intervention trial conducted at two clinical sites in Papua New Guinea. Cervical screening clinics with an on-site consultant gynaecologist were selected in consultation with national and provincial health authorities, church health services, and local stakeholders. Eligible participants were women aged 30-59 years attending cervical screening services at the two clinics, who were willing to comply with study procedures and able to provide written informed consent. Women self-collected vaginal specimens for point-of-care GeneXpert testing (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) for oncogenic HPV types. Women testing positive for HPV underwent pelvic examination followed by same-day thermal ablation or referral for gynaecology review. All HPV-positive women and a 15% random sample of HPV-negative women provided a clinician-collected cervical specimen for liquid-based cytology. The primary outcome was clinical performance (ie, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value [PPV], and negative predictive value [NPV]) of the strategy for the detection of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) or worse. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN13476702. FINDINGS: Between June 5, 2018, and Jan 6, 2020, we recruited 4285 women, 3638 (84·9%) of whom tested negative for HPV and 647 (15·1%) tested positive for one or more oncogenic HPV type. Sensitivity of the algorithm to detect

OBJECTIVES: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with a faecal immunochemical test (FIT) has been disrupted in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Performing catch-up of missed screens while maintaining regular screening services requires additional colonoscopy capacity that may not be available. This study aimed to compare strategies that clear the screening backlog using limited colonoscopy resources. METHODS: A range of strategies were simulated using four country-specific CRC natural-history models: Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) and MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis for CRC (MISCAN-Colon) (both in the Netherlands), Policy1-Bowel (Australia) and OncoSim (Canada). Strategies assumed a 3-month screening disruption with varying recovery period lengths (6, 12, and 24 months) and varying FIT thresholds for diagnostic colonoscopy. Increasing the FIT threshold reduces the number of referrals to diagnostic colonoscopy. Outcomes for each strategy were colonoscopy demand and excess CRC-related deaths due to the disruption. RESULTS: Performing catch-up using the regular FIT threshold in 6, 12 and 24 months could prevent most excess CRC-related deaths, but required 50%, 25% and 12.5% additional colonoscopy demand, respectively. Without exceeding usual colonoscopy demand, up to 60% of excess CRC-related deaths can be prevented by increasing the FIT threshold for 12 or 24 months. Large increases in FIT threshold could lead to additional deaths rather than preventing them. CONCLUSIONS: Clearing the screening backlog in 24 months could avert most excess CRC-related deaths due to a 3-month disruption but would require a small increase in colonoscopy demand. Increasing the FIT threshold slightly over 24 months could ease the pressure on colonoscopy resources.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors have been approved in the USA for tumours exhibiting mismatch repair deficiency (dMMR), microsatellite instability (MSI), or high tumour mutational burden (TMB), with regulatory and reimbursement applications in multiple other countries underway. As the estimated budget impacts of future reimbursements depend on the size of the potential target population, we performed a scoping review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of these pan-tumour biomarkers in different cancers. We systematically searched Medline/Embase and included studies reporting the prevalence of dMMR/MSI/high TMB in solid tumours published 01/01/2018-31/01/2021. Meta-analyses were performed separately for the pan-cancer prevalence of each biomarker, and by cancer type and stage where possible. The searches identified 3890 papers, with 433 prevalence estimates for 32 different cancer types from 201 studies included in meta-analyses. The pooled overall prevalence of dMMR, MSI and high TMB (≥ 10 mutations/Mb) in pan-cancer studies was 2.9%, 2.7% and 14.0%, respectively. The prevalence profiles of dMMR/MSI and high TMB differed across cancer types. For example, endometrial, colorectal, small bowel and gastric cancers showed high prevalence of both dMMR and MSI (range: 8.7-26.8% and 8.5-21.9%, respectively) and high TMB (range: 8.5-43.0%), while cervical, esophageal, bladder/urothelial, lung and skin cancers showed low prevalence of dMMR and MSI (< 5%), but high prevalence of high TMB (range: 23.7-52.6%). For other cancer types, prevalence of all three biomarkers was generally low (< 5%). This structured review of dMMR/MSI/high TMB prevalence across cancers and for specific cancer types and stages provide timely evidence to inform budget impact forecasts in health technology assessments for drug approvals based on these pan-tumour biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: The early COVID-19 literature suggested that people with cancer may be more likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 or develop COVID-19 than people without cancer, due to increased health services contact and/or immunocompromise. While some studies were criticised due to small patient numbers and methodological limitations, they created or reinforced concerns of clinicians and people with cancer. These risks are also important in COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation decisions. We performed a systematic review to critically assess and summarise the early literature. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a systematic search of Medline/Embase/BioRxiv/MedRxiv/SSRN databases including peer-reviewed journal articles, letters/commentaries, and non-peer-reviewed pre-print articles for 1 January-1 July 2020. The primary endpoints were diagnosis of COVID-19 and positive SARS-CoV-2 test. We assessed risk of bias using a tool adapted from the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Twelve studies were included in the quantitative synthesis. All four studies of COVID-19 incidence (including 24,181,727 individuals, 125,649 with pre-existing cancer) reported that people with cancer had higher COVID-19 incidence rates. Eight studies reported SARS-CoV-2 test positivity for > 472,000 individuals, 48,370 with pre-existing cancer. Seven of these studies comparing people with any and without cancer, were pooled using random effects [pooled odds ratio 0.91, 95 %CI: 0.57-1.47; unadjusted for age, sex, or comorbidities]. Two studies suggested people with active or haematological cancer had lower risk of a positive test. All 12 studies had high risk of bias; none included universal or random COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 testing. CONCLUSIONS: The early literature on susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 for people with cancer is characterised by pervasive biases and limited data. To provide high-quality evidence to inform decision-making, studies of risk of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 for people with cancer should control

Background: Cigarette smoking in people with cancer is associated with negative treatment-related outcomes including increased treatment toxicity and complications, medication side effects, decreased performance status and morbidity. Evidence-based smoking cessation care is not routinely provided to patients with cancer. The purpose of this study is to determine the effectiveness of a smoking cessation implementation intervention on abstinence from smoking in people diagnosed with cancer. Methods: A stepped wedge cluster randomised design will be used. All sites begin in the control condition providing treatment as usual. In a randomly generated order, sites will move to the intervention condition. Based on the Theoretical Domains Framework, implementation of Care to Quit will include (i) building the capability and motivation of a critical mass of key clinical staff and identifying champions; and (ii) identifying and implementing cessation care models/pathways. Two thousand one hundred sixty patients with cancer (diagnosed in the prior six months), aged 18+, who report recent combustible tobacco use (past 90 days or in the 30 days prior to cancer diagnosis) and are accessing anti-cancer therapy, will be recruited at nine sites. Assessments will be conducted at baseline and 7-month follow-up. The primary outcome will be 6-month abstinence from smoking. Secondary outcomes include biochemical verification of abstinence from smoking, duration of quit attempts, tobacco consumption, nicotine dependence, provision and receipt of smoking cessation care, mental health and quality of life and cost effectiveness of the intervention. Discussion: This study will implement best practice smoking cessation care in cancer centres and has the potential for wide dissemination. Trial registration: The trial is registered with ANZCTR (www.anzctr.org.au): ACTRN (ACTRN12621000154808) prior to the accrual of the first participant and will be updated regularly as per registry guidelines.

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically impacted cancer care worldwide. Disruptions have been seen across all facets of care. While the long-term impact of COVID-19 remains unclear, the immediate impacts on patients, their carers and the healthcare workforce are increasingly evident. This study describes disruptions and reorganisation of cancer services in Australia since the onset of COVID-19, from the perspectives of people affected by cancer and healthcare workers. Two separate online cross-sectional surveys were completed by: a) cancer patients, survivors, carers, family members or friends (n = 852) and b) healthcare workers (n = 150). Descriptive analyses of quantitative survey data were conducted, followed by inductive thematic content analyses of qualitative survey responses relating to cancer care disruption and perceptions of telehealth. Overall, 42% of cancer patients and survivors reported experiencing some level of care disruption. A further 43% of healthcare workers reported atypical delays in delivering cancer care, and 50% agreed that patient access to research and clinical trials had been reduced. Almost three quarters (73%) of patients and carers reported using telehealth following the onset of COVID-19, with high overall satisfaction. However, gaps were identified in provision of psychological support and 20% of participants reported that they were unlikely to use telehealth again. The reorganisation of cancer care increased the psychological and practical burden on carers, with hospital visitation restrictions and appointment changes reducing their ability to provide essential support. COVID-19 has exacerbated a stressful and uncertain time for people affected by cancer and healthcare workers. Service reconfiguration and the adoption of telehealth have been essential adaptations for the pandemic response, offering long-term value. However, our findings highlight the need to better integrate psychosocial support and the important role of carers into

Background: Colorectal cancer screening programmes worldwide have been disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to estimate the impact of hypothetical disruptions to organised faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programmes on short-term and long-term colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in three countries using microsimulation modelling. Methods: In this modelling study, we used four country-specific colorectal cancer microsimulation models–Policy1-Bowel (Australia), OncoSim (Canada), and ASCCA and MISCAN-Colon (the Netherlands)—to estimate the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to screening on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands annually for the period 2020–24 and cumulatively for the period 2020–50. Modelled scenarios varied by duration of disruption (3, 6, and 12 months), decreases in screening participation after the period of disruption (0%, 25%, or 50% reduction), and catch-up screening strategies (within 6 months after the disruption period or all screening delayed by 6 months). Findings: Without catch-up screening, our analysis predicted that colorectal cancer deaths among individuals aged 50 years and older, a 3-month disruption would result in 414–902 additional new colorectal cancer diagnoses (relative increase 0·1–0·2%) and 324–440 additional deaths (relative increase 0·2–0·3%) in the Netherlands, 1672 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·3%) and 979 additional deaths (relative increase 0·5%) in Australia, and 1671 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2%) and 799 additional deaths (relative increase 0·3%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. A 6-month disruption would result in 803–1803 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2–0·4%) and 678–881 additional deaths (relative increase 0·4–0·6%) in the Netherlands, 3552 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·6%) and 1961 additional deaths (relative increase 1·0%)

Background: Estimates of future burden of cancer attributable to current modifiable causal exposures can guide cancer prevention. We quantified future head and neck cancer burden in Australia attributable to individual and joint causal exposures, and assessed whether these burdens differ between population subgroups. Method(s): We estimated the strength of the associations between exposures and head and neck cancer using adjusted proportional hazards models from pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N 1/4 367,058) linked to national cancer and death registries and estimated exposure prevalence from the 2017 to 2018 Australian National Health Survey. We calculated population attributable fractions (PAF) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. Result(s): Contemporary levels of current and former smoking contribute 30.6% (95% CI, 22.7%-37.8%), alcohol consumption exceeding two standard drinks per day 12.9% (95% CI, 7.6%-17.9%), and these exposures jointly 38.5% (95% CI, 31.1%-45.0%) to the future head and neck cancer burden. Alcohol-attributable burden is triple and smoking-attributable burden is double for men compared with women. Smoking-attributable burden is also at least double for those consuming more than two alcoholic drinks daily or doing less than 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous activity weekly, and for those aged under 65 years, unmarried, with low or intermediate educational attainment or lower socioeconomic status, compared with their counterparts. Conclusion(s): Two-fifths of head and neck cancers in Australia are preventable by investment in tobacco and alcohol control. Impact: Targeting men and other identified high-burden subgroups can help to reduce head and neck cancer burden disparities.Copyright © 2021 American Association for Cancer Research.

AIM: Systemic therapies for lung cancer are rapidly evolving. This study aimed to describe lung cancer treatment patterns in New South Wales, Australia, prior to the introduction of immunotherapy and latest-generation targeted therapies. METHODS: Systemic therapy utilization and treatment-related factors were examined for participants in the New South Wales 45 and Up Study with incident lung cancer ascertained by record linkage to the New South Wales Cancer Registry (2006-2013). Systemic therapy receipt to June 2016 was determined using medical and pharmaceutical claims data from Services Australia, and in-patient hospital records. Factors related to treatment were identified using competing risks regressions. RESULTS: A total of 1,116 lung cancer cases were identified with a mean age at diagnosis of 72 years and median survival of 10.6 months. Systemic therapy was received by 45% of cases. Among 400 cases with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, 51% and 28% received first- and second-line systemic therapy, respectively. Among 112 diagnosed with small-cell lung cancer, 79% and 29% received first- and second-line systemic therapy. The incidence of systemic therapy was lower for participants with indicators of poor performance status, lower educational attainment, and those who lived in areas of socioeconomic disadvantage; and was higher for participants with small-cell lung cancer histology or higher body mass index. CONCLUSION: This population-based Australian study identified patterns of systemic therapy use for lung cancer, particularly small-cell lung cancer. Despite a universal healthcare system, the analysis revealed socioeconomic disparities in health service utilization and relatively low utilization of systemic therapy overall.

Thyroid cancer incidence and the prevalence of overweight and obesity are increasing, but the future thyroid cancer burden attributable to contemporary levels of overweight and obesity has not been evaluated before. We quantified this burden in Australia, and assessed whether the overweight/obesity-attributable burden differed by sex or other population subgroupings. We estimated the strength of the associations of overweight and obesity with thyroid cancer with adjusted proportional hazards models using pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367 058) with 431 thyroid cancer cases ascertained from linked national cancer registry data during a maximum 22-year follow-up. We combined these estimates with nationally representative 2017 to 2018 estimates of overweight and obesity prevalence to estimate population attributable fractions (PAFs) of future thyroid cancers attributable to overweight and obesity, accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. Contemporary levels of overweight and obesity explain 18.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.2%-30.2%), and obesity alone 13.7% (95% CI: 5.2%-21.4%), of the future thyroid cancer burden. The obesity-attributable thyroid cancer burden is 21.4% (95% CI: 2.8%-36.5%) for men and 10.1% (95% CI: 0.8%-18.6%) for women. Were the currently obese overweight instead, 9.9% (95% CI: 1.0%-18.1%) of thyroid cancers could be avoided. The relative overweight/obesity-attributable burden is higher for those consuming on average more than two alcoholic drinks per day (63.4%) and for those who are not married/co-habiting (33.2%). In conclusion, avoiding excess weight, especially obesity, should be a priority for thyroid cancer prevention. Further studies, with findings stratified by tumour size, may reveal the potential role of overdiagnosis in our results.

BACKGROUND: Initially, three-dose schedules were recommended for vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV); subsequently recommendations have been updated to a schedule of two doses delivered at least six (minimum five) months apart for those aged <15 years at dose 1. We aimed to re-estimate effective HPV vaccination coverage in Australia, considering reduced-dose schedules and possible one-dose effectiveness. We also aimed to identify which of the three school visits was most commonly missed amongst two-dose only recipients, to inform optimal timing of visits. METHODS: National vaccination register data were used to estimate: i) vaccination coverage at December 2017, either with a complete course (three or two sufficiently-spaced doses (>151 days apart)), or at least one dose; ii) for each birth cohort offered vaccination, the percentage of the initially targeted cohort with a complete course, or at least one dose (reflecting uptake at the time the vaccine was offered); and iii) among two-dose only recipients, the percentage who missed each of three school visits. RESULTS: Including those with two sufficiently-spaced doses increased end-2017 coverage by 1.3-2.8% points in those vaccinated at school. Including those with at least one dose increased coverage further, by 6.5-9.5% points, mostly due to including those receiving multiple too-closely-spaced doses. One-dose coverage reached 90.9% and 86.9% in females and males respectively born in 2002. Among those vaccinated at school who received only two doses, it was much more common to miss the first (31.0% females; 32.5% males) or the third visit in the school year (54.6% females; 48.6% males) than the second (14.1% females; 18.8% males). CONCLUSIONS: Including those with two sufficiently-spaced doses has a very modest impact on HPV vaccine coverage in Australia. If receiving at least one dose offers substantial protection, these data suggest that the school-based program is now achieving close to 90% coverage on

BACKGROUND: Australian adolescents are routinely offered HPV and dTpa (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis) vaccines simultaneously in the secondary school vaccination program. We identified schools where HPV initiation was lower than dTpa coverage and associated school-level factors across three states. METHODS: HPV vaccination initiation rates and dTpa vaccination coverage in 2016 were calculated using vaccine databases and school enrolment data. A multivariate analysis assessed sociodemographic and school-level factors associated with HPV initiation being >5% absolute lower than dTpa coverage. RESULTS: Of 1280 schools included, the median school-level HPV initiation rate was 85% (interquartile range (IQR):75-90%) and the median dTpa coverage was 86% (IQR:75-92%). Nearly a quarter (24%) of all schools had HPV vaccination initiation >5% lower than dTpa coverage and 11 % had >10% difference. School-level factors independently associated with >5% difference were remote schools (aOR:3.5, 95% CI = 1.7-7.2) and schools in major cities (aOR:1.8, 95% CI = 1.0-3.0), small schools (aOR:3.3, 95% CI = 2.3-5.7), higher socioeconomic advantage (aOR:1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.6), and lower proportions of Language-background-other-than-English (aOR:1.9, 95% CI = 1.2-3.0). CONCLUSION: The results identified a quarter of schools had lower HPV than dTpa initiation coverage, which may indicate HPV vaccine hesitancy, and the difference was more likely in socioeconomically advantaged schools. As hesitancy is context specific, it is important to understand the potential drivers of hesitancy and future research needs to understand the reasons driving differential uptake.

The COVID-19 pandemic affects mortality and morbidity, with disruptions expected to continue for some time, with access to timely cancer-related services a concern. For breast cancer, early detection and treatment is key to improved survival and longer-term quality of life. Health services generally have been strained and in many settings with population breast mammography screening, efforts to diagnose and treat breast cancers earlier have been paused or have had reduced capacity. The resulting delays to diagnosis and treatment may lead to more intensive treatment requirements and, potentially, increased mortality. Modelled evaluations can support responses to the pandemic by estimating short- and long-term outcomes for various scenarios. Multiple calibrated and validated models exist for breast cancer screening, and some have been applied in 2020 to estimate the impact of breast screening disruptions and compare options for recovery, in a range of international settings. On behalf of the Covid and Cancer Modelling Consortium (CCGMC) Working Group 2 (Breast Cancer), we summarize and provide examples of such in a range of settings internationally, and propose priorities for future modelling exercises. International expert collaborations from the CCGMC Working Group 2 (Breast Cancer) will conduct analyses and modelling studies needed to inform key stakeholders recovery efforts in order to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on early diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Schools are the primary setting for the delivery of adolescent HPV vaccination in Australia. Although this strategy has achieved generally high vaccination coverage, gaps persist for reasons that are mostly unknown. This study sought to identify school-level correlates of low vaccination course initiation and completion in New South Wales, Tasmania, and Western Australia to inform initiatives to increase uptake. METHODS: Initiation was defined as the number of first doses given in a school in 2016 divided by vaccine-eligible student enrolments. Completion was the number of third doses given in a school in 2015-2016 divided by the number of first doses. Low initiation and completion were defined as coverage ≤ 25thpercentile of all reporting schools. We investigated correlations between covariates using Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. Due to multicollinearity, we used univariable logistic regression to investigate associations between school characteristics and low coverage. RESULTS: Median initiation was 84.7% (IQR: 75.0%-90.4%) across 1,286 schools and median completion was 93.8% (IQR: 86.0%-97.3%) across 1,295 schools. There were strong correlations between a number of school characteristics, particularly higher Indigenous student enrolments and lower attendance, increasing remoteness, higher postcode socioeconomic disadvantage, and smaller school size. Characteristics most strongly associated with low initiation in univariate analyses were small school size, location in Tasmania, and schools catering for special educational needs. Low completion was most strongly associated with schools in Tasmania and Western Australia, remote location, small size, high proportion of Indigenous student enrolments, and low attendance rates. CONCLUSION: This study provides indicative evidence that characteristics of schools and school populations are associated with the likelihood of low initiation and completion of the HPV vaccination course. The findings wil

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In this systematic review and meta-analyses, we sought to determine sex-disparities in treatment abandonment in children with cancer in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and identify the characteristics of children and their families most disadvantaged by such abandonment. Sex-disaggregated data on treatment abandonment were collated from the available literature and a random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to compare the rates in girls with those in boys. Subgroup analyses were conducted in which studies were stratified by design, cancer type and the Gender Inequality Index of the country of study. Eighteen studies were included in the systematic review and of these studies, 16 qualified for the meta-analysis, representing 10 754 children. The pooled rate of treatment abandonment overall was 30%. We observed no difference in the proportion of treatment abandonment in girls relative to estimates observed in boys (rate ratio [RR] 0.95, 95% CI: 0.79-1.15; P = .61). There was significant heterogeneity across the included studies and in the pooled estimate of RR for girls vs boys (both I2 > 98%). Subgroup analyses did not reveal any effect on abandonment risk. Risk factors for abandonment observed fell into three main categories: socio-demographic; geographic; and travel-related. In conclusion, a high rate of treatment abandonment (30%) was observed overall for children with cancer in included studies in LMICs, although this was variable and context specific. No evidence of gender bias in childhood cancer treatment abandonment rates across LMICs was found. Given that the risk factors for abandonment are context specific, in-depth country-level analyses may provide further insights into the role of a child's gender in treatment abandonment decisions.

Introduction With almost 50% of cases preventable and the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in place, colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prime candidate for investment to reduce the cancer burden. The challenge is determining effective ways to reduce morbidity and mortality and their implementation through policy and practice. Pathways-Bowel is a multistage programme that aims to identify best-value investment in CRC control by integrating expert and end-user engagement; relevant evidence; modelled interventions to guide future investment; and policy-driven implementation of interventions using evidence-based methods. Methods and analysis Pathways-Bowel is an iterative work programme incorporating a calibrated and validated CRC natural history model for Australia (Policy1-Bowel) and assessing the health and cost outcomes and resource use of targeted interventions. Experts help identify and prioritise modelled evaluations of changing trends and interventions and critically assess results to advise on their real-world applicability. Where appropriate the results are used to support public policy change and make the case for optimal investment in specific CRC control interventions. Fourteen high-priority evaluations have been modelled or planned, including evaluations of CRC outcomes from the changing prevalence of modifiable exposures, including smoking and body fatness; potential benefits of daily aspirin intake as chemoprevention; increasing CRC incidence in people aged <50 years; increasing screening participation in the general and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; alternative screening technologies and modalities; and changes to follow-up surveillance protocols. Pathways-Bowel is a unique, comprehensive approach to evaluating CRC control; no prior body of work has assessed the relative benefits of a variety of interventions across CRC development and progression to produce a list of best-value investments. Ethics and dissemination Ethi

Background. To interpret cervical cancer screening model results, we need to understand the influence of model structure and assumptions on cancer incidence and mortality predictions. Cervical cancer cases and deaths following screening can be attributed to 1) (precancerous or cancerous) disease that occurred after screening, 2) disease that was present but not screen detected, or 3) disease that was screen detected but not successfully treated. We examined the relative contributions of each of these using 4 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models. Methods. The maximum clinical incidence reduction (MCLIR) method compares changes in the number of clinically detected cervical cancers and mortality among 4 scenarios: 1) no screening, 2) one-time perfect screening at age 45 that detects all existing disease and delivers perfect (i.e., 100% effective) treatment of all screen-detected disease, 3) one-time realistic-sensitivity cytological screening and perfect treatment of all screen-detected disease, and 4) one-time realistic-sensitivity cytological screening and realistic-effectiveness treatment of all screen-detected disease. Results. Predicted incidence reductions ranged from 55% to 74%, and mortality reduction ranged from 56% to 62% within 15 years of follow-up for scenario 4 across models. The proportion of deaths due to disease not detected by screening differed across the models (21%–35%), as did the failure of treatment (8%–16%) and disease occurring after screening (from 1%–6%). Conclusions. The MCLIR approach aids in the interpretation of variability across model results. We showed that the reasons why screening failed to prevent cancers and deaths differed between the models. This likely reflects uncertainty about unobservable model inputs and structures; the impact of this uncertainty on policy conclusions should be examined via comparing findings from different well-calibrated and validated model platforms.

BACKGROUND: Of all cancer types, healthcare for lung cancer is the third most costly in Australia, but there is little detailed information about these costs. Our aim was to provide detailed population-based estimates of health system costs for lung cancer care, as a benchmark prior to wider availability of targeted therapies/immunotherapy and to inform cost-effectiveness analyses of lung cancer screening and other interventions in Australia. METHODS: Health system costs were estimated for incident lung cancers in the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort, diagnosed between recruitment (2006-2009) and 2013. Costs to June 2016 included services reimbursed via the Medicare Benefits Schedule, medicines reimbursed via the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, inpatient hospitalisations, and emergency department presentations. Costs for cases and matched, cancer-free controls were compared to derive excess costs of care. Costs were disaggregated by patient and tumour characteristics. Data for more recent cases identified in hospital records provided preliminary information on targeted therapy/immunotherapy. RESULTS: 994 eligible cases were diagnosed with lung cancer 2006-2013; 51% and 74% died within one and three years respectively. Excess costs from one-year pre-diagnosis to three years post-diagnosis averaged ~$51,900 per case. Observed costs were higher for cases diagnosed at age 45-59 ($67,700) or 60-69 ($63,500), and lower for cases aged ≥80 ($29,500) and those with unspecified histology ($31,700) or unknown stage ($36,500). Factors associated with lower costs generally related to shorter survival: older age (p<0.0001), smoking (p<0.0001) and unknown stage (p = 0.002). There was no evidence of differences by year of diagnosis or sex (both p>0.50). For 465 cases diagnosed 2014-2015, 29% had subsidised molecular testing for targeted therapy/immunotherapy and 4% had subsidised targeted therapies. CONCLUSIONS: Lung cancer healthcare costs are strongly associated with survival-re

BACKGROUND: Improved survival means that cancer is increasingly becoming a chronic disease. Understanding and improving functional outcomes are critical to optimising survivorship. We quantified physical and mental health-related outcomes in people with versus without cancer, according to cancer type. METHODS: Questionnaire data from an Australian population-based cohort study (45 and Up Study (n = 267,153)) were linked to cancer registration data to ascertain cancer diagnoses up to enrolment. Modified Poisson regression estimated age- and sex-adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) for adverse person-centred outcomes-severe physical functional limitations (disability), moderate/high psychological distress and fair/poor quality of life (QoL)-in participants with versus without cancer, for 13 cancer types. RESULTS: Compared to participants without cancer (n = 244,000), cancer survivors (n = 22,505) had greater disability (20.6% versus 12.6%, respectively, PR = 1.28, 95%CI = (1.25-1.32)), psychological (22.2% versus 23.5%, 1.05 (1.02-1.08)) and poor/fair QoL (15.2% versus 10.2%; 1.28 (1.24-1.32)). The outcomes varied by cancer type, being worse for multiple myeloma (PRs versus participants without cancer for disability 3.10, 2.56-3.77; distress 1.53, 1.20-1.96; poor/fair QoL 2.40, 1.87-3.07), lung cancer (disability 2.81, 2.50-3.15; distress 1.67, 1.46-1.92; poor/fair QoL 2.53, 2.21-2.91) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (disability 1.56, 1.37-1.78; distress 1.20, 1.05-1.36; poor/fair QoL 1.66, 1.44-1.92) and closer to those in people without cancer for breast cancer (disability 1.23, 1.16-1.32; distress 0.95, 0.90-1.01; poor/fair QoL 1.15, 1.05-1.25), prostate cancer (disability 1.11, 1.04-1.19; distress 1.09, 1.02-1.15; poor/fair QoL 1.15, 1.08-1.23) and melanoma (disability 1.02, 0.94-1.10; distress 0.96, 0.89-1.03; poor/fair QoL 0.92, 0.83-1.01). Outcomes were worse with recent diagnosis and treatment and advanced stage. Physical disability in cancer survivors was greater in a

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused major disruptions to many aspects of life in Australia and globally. This includes actual and potential future impacts on Australia's three national screening programs for breast, bowel and cervical cancer. These programs aim to improve cancer outcomes through an organised approach to the early detection of cancer and precancer in asymptomatic populations. The design of each program varies according to biological differences in the three cancers, the available screening technology, the target population, and variations in their administration of Australia's federal, state and territory jurisdictions. The observed and potential impacts of COVID-19 on these programs, and on related activities such as the current national enquiry into lung cancer screening feasibility, therefore vary significantly. This article focuses on observed short-term impacts, adaptations and the longer-term outlook for cancer screening in relation to COVID-19. It summarises potential responses to minimise the harms of disruptions caused by COVID-19, and highlights research and policy opportunities in the pandemic response and recovery which could inform and accelerate optimisation of cancer screening in the long term.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the government and out-of-pocket community costs (out-of-hospital medical services and prescription medicines) associated with screen-detected and community-detected cancers (i.e. cancers detected outside of Australia's organised screening program [BreastScreen]). METHODS: We analyse administrative data on government-subsidised medical services and prescription medicines for 568 Victorian women diagnosed with breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Using multivariable regression analysis, we estimate the government and out-of-pocket community costs incurred in the three years after diagnosis for screen-detected cancers and community-detected cancers. Additionally, we estimate the government costs associated with diagnosis within and outside of BreastScreen. RESULTS: Average government costs for breast cancer diagnosis were similar within and outside of BreastScreen [$808 (lower limit 676; upper limit 940) vs $837 (95%CI 671; 1,003) respectively]; however, women with community-detected cancers incurred an additional $254 (95%CI 175; 332) out-of-pocket. Controlling for differences in known cancer characteristics, compared to screen-detected cancers, community-detected breast cancers were associated with an additional $2,622 (95%CI 644; 4,776) in government expenditure in the three years following diagnosis. Adverse cancer characteristics that were more prevalent in community-detected cancers (high grade, lymph node involvement, HER2 positive receptor status) were associated with increased government and out-of-pocket costs. CONCLUSIONS: Community-detected breast cancers were associated with increased government and out-of-pocket costs. Implications for public health: These costs should be considered when evaluating current and alternative breast cancer screening strategies.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of an HPV vaccination programme in reducing the risk of cervical abnormalities identified at subsequent screening. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using administrative health data. SETTING: General population of Ferrara Province, Italy. POPULATION: Female residents born in 1986-1993 and participating in the organized cervical screening programme in 2011-2018, who were eligible for HPV vaccination in catch-up cohorts. METHODS: Logistic regression to evaluate the potential association between abnormal cervical cytology and one, two, three or at least one dose of HPV vaccine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cervical abnormalities, as predicted by low-grade or high-grade cytology, by number of vaccine doses, stratified by age. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 7785 women (mean age 27.5 years, SD 2.3). Overall, 391 (5.0%) were vaccinated with ≥1 dose and 893 (11.5%) had abnormal cytology. Women receiving at least one vaccine dose were significantly less likely to have an abnormal cytology (adjusted odds ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval 0.34-0.79). Similar results were observed for women receiving a single dose, for both bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines, and applying buffer periods (excluding cytological outcomes within 1 month, 6 months and 1 year of the first dose). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of an organised cervical screening programme in Italy, catch-up HPV vaccination almost halved the risk of cytological abnormalities. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Among Ferrara women, vaccination against human papillomavirus halved the risk of screening cervical abnormalities.

Substantial changes in the prevalence of the principal kidney and bladder cancer risk factors, smoking (both cancers) and body fatness (kidney cancer), have occurred but the contemporary cancer burden attributable to these factors has not been evaluated. We quantified the kidney and bladder cancer burden attributable to individual and joint exposures and assessed whether these burdens differ between population subgroups. We linked pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) to national cancer and death registries and estimated the strength of the associations between exposures and cancer using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative contemporaneous health surveys. We combined these estimates to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. During the first 10-year follow-up, 550 kidney and 530 bladder cancers were diagnosed and over 21,000 people died from any cause. Current levels of overweight and obesity explain 28.8% (CI = 17.3-38.7%), current or past smoking 15.5% (CI = 6.0-24.1%) and these exposures jointly 39.6% (CI = 27.5-49.7%) of the kidney cancer burden. Current or past smoking explains 44.4% (CI = 35.4-52.1%) of the bladder cancer burden, with 24.4% attributable to current smoking. Ever smoking explains more than half (53.4%) of the bladder cancer burden in men, and the burden potentially preventable by quitting smoking is highest in men (30.4%), those aged <65 years (28.0%) and those consuming >2 standard alcoholic drinks/day (41.2%). In conclusion, large fractions of kidney and bladder cancers in Australia are preventable by behavior change.

BACKGROUND: Coinciding with the release of the first Chinese domestic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine Cecolin in 2019, and the substantial advancements in cervical cancer screening technology, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the combined strategies of cervical cancer screening programmes and universal vaccination of girls (aged 9-14 years) with Cecolin in China. METHODS: We did a cost-effectiveness analysis in China, in which we developed a Markov model of cervical cancer to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 61 intervention strategies, including a combination of various screening methods at different frequencies with and without vaccination, and also vaccination alone, from a health-care system perspective. We did univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the model's findings. FINDINGS: Compared with no intervention, various combined screening and vaccination strategies would incur an additional cost of US$6 157 000-22 146 000 and result in 691-970 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained in a designated cohort of 100 000 girls aged 9-14 years over a lifetime. With a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times the Chinese per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), careHPV screening (a rapid HPV test) once every 5 years with vaccination would be the most cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $21 799 per QALY compared with the lower-cost non-dominated strategy on the cost-effectiveness frontier, and the probability of it being cost-effective (44%) outperformed other strategies. Strategies that combined screening and vaccination would be more cost-effective than screening alone strategies when the vaccination cost was less than $50 for two doses, even with a lower willingness-to-pay of one times the per-capita GDP. INTERPRETATION: careHPV screening once every 5 years with vaccination is the most cost-effective strategy for cervical cancer prevention in China. A r