Search

Democracy only became the preferred form of government in the 20th century. The new historical fact that led to the change in preference was the capitalist revolution, which changed the mode of appropriation of the surplus, from violence to themarket. Disappearance of fear of expropriation, the emergence of the middle classes, and pressure from the poor were the second, third, and fourth new historical facts that opened the way for the democratic transition. After these four conditions had been met, universal suffrage was guaranteed. The theory presented here does not predict transitions, since countries rarely become democratic without completely meeting historical conditions, but it does predict democratic consolidation, since no country that has completed its democratic revolution slips back into authoritarianism. Ce n'est qu'au XXème siècle que la démocratie est devenue le type de gouvernement préféré. Le fait historique nouveau menant à ce changement a été la révolution capitaliste qui a transformé le mode d'appropriation des excédents par la violence déplacée au marché. La disparition de la peur de l'expropriation, l'avènement des classes moyennes et la pression des pauvres sont les deuxième, troisième et quatrième faits historiques nouveaux ouvrant le chemin à la transition vers la démocratie. Après que ces quatre conditions ont été remplies, le suffrage universel a été assuré. La théorie proposée ici ne prévoit pas de transitions, puisque les pays deviennent rarement démocratiques sans un aboutissement des conditions historiques, mais elle prévoit la consolidationdémocratique, car nul pays ayant achevé sa révolution démocratique ne revient à l'autoritarisme.

The history of independent Brazil may be divided into three major state- society cycles, and, after 1930, five political pacts or class coalitions can be identified. These pacts were nationalist; only in the 1990s did the Brazilian elites surrender to neoliberal hegemony. Yet since early in the twenty-first century they have been rediscovering the idea of the nation. The main claim of this essay is that Brazilian elites and Brazilian society are “national-dependent,” that is, they are ambivalent and contradictory, requiring an oxymoron to define them. They are dependent because they often consider themselves “Europeans” and the mass of the people as inferior. But Brazil is big enough, and there are many common interests around its domestic market, to make the Brazilian nation less ambivalent. Today the country is seeking a synthesis between the last two political cycles—between social justice and economic development in the framework of democracy. Abstract: A historia do Brasil independente pode ser dividida em tres grandes ciclos Estado-sociedade, e, depois de 1930, em cinco pactos politicos ou coalizoes de classe. Os tres primeiros pactos foram desenvolvimentistas, envolvendo os empresarios industriais e a burocracia publica; somente nos anos 1990 as elites brasileiras se renderam a hegemonia neoliberal. No entanto, desde meados dos anos 2000 elas foram redescobrindo a ideia de nacao. A principal reivindicacao do ensaio e que as elites brasileiras e a sociedade brasileira sao “nacional-dependentes”, isto e, eles sao ambivalentes e contraditorias, exigindo um oximoro para defini-las. Sao dependentes, porque muitas vezes se veem como “europeia” e a massa do povo, como inferior. Mas o Brasil e grande, e ha interesses comuns suficientes em torno do seu mercado interno, para fazer a nacao brasileira tambem desenvolvimentista. Hoje o Brasil esta buscando uma sintese entre os dois ultimos ciclos politicos —entre a justica social e o desenvolvimento economico no âmbito da democracia.

Democracy became the preferred and consolidated form of government only in the twentieth century. It is not sufficient to explain this change solely by reference to rational motives, nor by detecting processes and leadership. A historical approach is required. The new historical fact that led to the change of preference from aristocratic rule to democracy is the capitalist revolution, which changed the manner of appropriating the economic surplus from violence to the market. This is the first necessary condition for democracy. The disappearance of the fear of expropriation, the rise of middle classes and the pressures of the poor or of the workers are the second, third and fourth new historical facts that opened the way for the transition from the liberal to the liberal-democratic regime. After these four conditions were fulfilled, the elites ceased to fear that they would be expropriated if universal suffrage was granted. Eventually, after the transition, the democratic regime became the rational choice for all classes. The theory presented here does not predict transitions, since countries often turn democratic without fully realized historical conditions, but it predicts democratic consolidation, since no country that has completed its capitalist revolution falls back into authoritarianism.

This paper distinguishes three types of countries (rich, middle-income, and pre-industrial) and focus on the latter, which, in contrast to the other two, didn’t complete their industrial and capitalist revolutions. Can pre-industrial countries be governed well and under democracy? Today democracy is a universal value, and, so, these countries are under pressure from the West and from its own society to be democratic, even though they do not dispose of mature enough societies in which the economic surplus is appropriated through the market. In fact, no country completed its industrial and capitalist revolution within the framework of even a minimal democracy. Additionally, pre-industrial countries are extremely difficult to govern because they usually don’t have a strong nation and capable states. This double pressure represents a major obstacle to their development. RESUMO Este trabalho distingue três tipos de país (rico, de renda média e pré-industrial) e centra-se no último, que, ao contrário dos outros dois, não completou suas revoluções industrial e capitalista. Um país pré-industrial pode ser governado bem e sob a democracia? Hoje a democracia é um valor universal e, portanto, os países estão sob a pressão do Ocidente e de sua própria sociedade para serem democráticos, embora suas sociedades não sejam suficientemente maduras, nas quais o excedente econômico seja apropriado pelo mercado. De fato, nenhum país completou sua revolução industrial e capitalista no âmbito de uma democracia mínima. Além disso, o país pré-industrial é extremamente difícil de governar, porque ele geralmente não tem uma nação forte e estado capaz. Esta dupla pressão representa um grande obstáculo ao seu desenvolvimento.