Search

Based on statistical analyses applied to official data from the Digital Atlas of Disasters in Brazil over the last 25 years, we evidenced a consistent intensification in the annual occurrence of natural disasters in the state of Pará, located in the eastern Brazilian Amazon. The quantitative comparison between the averages of the most intense period of disasters (2017 to 2023) and the earlier years (1999 to 2016) revealed a remarkable percentage increase of 473%. Approximately 81% of the state's municipalities were affected, as indicated by disaster mapping. A clear seasonal pattern was observed, with Hydrological disasters (Inundations, Flash floods, and Heavy rainfall) peaking between February and May, while Climatological disasters (Droughts and Forest fires) were most frequent from August to October. The catastrophic impacts on people and the economy were documented, showing a significant rise in the number of homeless individuals and those directly affected, alongside considerable material damage and economic losses for both the public and private sectors. Furthermore, we conducted a comprehensive composite analysis on the tropical ocean–atmosphere dynamic structure that elucidated the various triggering mechanisms of disasters arising from Inundations, Droughts, and Forest fires (on seasonal scale), and Flash floods and Heavy rainfall (on sub-monthly scale) in Pará. The detailed characterization of disasters on a municipal scale is relevant in terms of the scientific contribution applied to the strategic decision-making, planning, and implementation of public policies aimed at early risk management (rather than post-disaster response), which is critical for safeguarding human well-being and strengthening the resilience of Amazonian communities vulnerable to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The focus of this work is on small municipalities (population below 50 thousand inhabitants) that cover around 87% of the territory of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). Based on a comprehensive integrated analysis approach using the three components hazard (climate extremes from CMIP6 future scenarios), exposure (directly affected population), and vulnerability (subdimensions of susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity by using multidimensional indicators), the latter two using current datasets provided by the official Census IBGE 2022, we document a quantitative assessment of the risk R of natural disasters in the BLA region. We evidenced a worrying and imminent intensification of the curve of R in most Amazonian municipalities over the next two 25-year periods. The overall results of the highest proportions of R (total municipalities affected) pointed out the Amazonas, Roraima, Pará, and Maranhão as the main states, presenting projected categories of R high in the near future (2015 to 2039) and very high in the far future (2040 to 2064). The detailed assessment of the susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity allowed us to elucidate the principal indicators that aggravate the degree of vulnerability: economy, the precariousness of urban infrastructure, medical services, communication, and urban mobility, whose combined factors, unfortunately, reveal a widespread poverty profile along the small Amazonian municipalities. Our scientific findings can assist decision makers in targeted strategies planning and public policies to minimize and mitigate ongoing and future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]