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Abstract Background Meningococcal disease can have devastating consequences. As new vaccines emerge, it is necessary to assess their impact on public health. In the absence of long-term real world data, modeling the effects of different vaccination strategies is required. Discrete event simulation provides a flexible platform with which to conduct such evaluations. Methods A discrete event simulation of the epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease was developed to quantify the potential impact of implementing routine vaccination of adolescents in the United States with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine protecting against serogroups A, C, Y, and W-135. The impact of vaccination is assessed including both the direct effects on individuals vaccinated and the indirect effects resulting from herd immunity. The simulation integrates a variety of epidemiologic and demographic data, with core information on the incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and outbreak frequency derived from data available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Simulation of the potential indirect benefits of vaccination resulting from herd immunity draw on data from the United Kingdom, where routine vaccination with a conjugate vaccine has been in place for a number of years. Cases of disease are modeled along with their health consequences, as are the occurrence of disease outbreaks. Results When run without a strategy of routine immunization, the simulation accurately predicts the age-specific incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and the site-specific frequency of outbreaks in the Unite States. 2,807 cases are predicted annually, resulting in over 14,000 potential life years lost due to invasive disease. In base case analyses of routine vaccination, life years lost due to infection are reduced by over 45% (to 7,600) when routinely vaccinating adolescents 12 years of age at 70% coverage. Sensitivity analyses indicate that herd immunity plays an important role when this population is targeted for vaccination. While 1,100 cases are avoided annually when herd immunity effects are included, in the absence of any herd immunity, the number of cases avoided with routine vaccination falls to 380 annually. The duration of vaccine protection also strongly influences results. Conclusion In the absence of appropriate real world data on outcomes associated with large-scale vaccination programs, decisions on optimal immunization strategies can be aided by discrete events simulations such as the one described here. Given the importance of herd immunity on outcomes associated with routine vaccination, published estimates of the economic efficiency of routine vaccination with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine in the United States may have considerably underestimated the benefits associated with a policy of routine immunization of adolescents.

Abstract Background Documentation of the hospitalizations rates following a stroke provides the inputs required for planning health services and to evaluate the economic efficiency of any new therapies. Methods Hospitalization rates by cause were examined using administrative data on 18,695 patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke (first or subsequent, excluding transient ischemic attack) in Saskatchewan, Canada between 1990 and 1995. Medical history was available retrospectively to January 1980 and follow-up was complete to March 2000. Analyses evaluated the rate and timing of all-cause and cardiovascular hospitalizations within discrete periods in the five years following the index stroke. Cardiovascular hospitalizations included patients with a primary diagnosis of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, stable or unstable angina, heart failure or peripheral arterial disease. Results One-third (36%) of patients were identified by a hospitalized stroke. Mean age was 70.5 years, 48.0% were male, half had a history of stroke or a transient ischemic attack at the time of their index stroke. Three-quarters of the patients (72.7%) were hospitalized at least once during a mean follow-up of 4.6 years, accruing CAD $24 million in the first year alone. Of all hospitalizations, 20.4% were related to cardiovascular disease and 1.6% to bleeds. In the month following index stroke, 12.5% were admitted, an average of 1.04 times per patient hospitalized. Strokes accounted for 33% of all hospitalizations in the first month. The rate diminished steadily throughout the year and stabilized in the second year when approximately one-third of patients required hospitalization, at a rate of about one hospitalization for every two patient-years. Mean lengths of stay ranged from nine days to nearly 40 days. Close-fitting Weibull functions allow highly specific probability estimates. Other cardiovascular risk factors significantly increased hospitalization rates. Conclusion After stroke, there are frequent hospitalizations accounting for substantial additional costs. Though these rates drop after one year, they remain high over time. The number of other cardiovascular causes of hospitalization confirms that stroke is a manifestation of disseminated atherothrombotic disease.

Abstract Background Pertussis, a highly contagious respiratory illness, affects people of all ages and can have serious clinical consequences. It has been reported that from 1997–2000, 20% of all pertussis cases required hospitalization in the US. This analysis examined demographics, case fatality rate, resource use and costs of hospital care related to pertussis by age. Methods ICD-9 codes (033.0, 033.9) were used to identify cases of pertussis in hospital discharge databases from roughly 1,000 US hospitals in 4 states (California, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts). Data from 1996–1999 were examined by age group. Separate analyses were done for infants ( Results Of the 2,518 cases identified, 90% were infants. The inpatient case fatality rate was Conclusion Infants are responsible for the bulk of hospitalizations and generate higher inpatient costs. Costly hospital care occurs, however, in patients with pertussis at all ages.

Abstract Background To reduce the likelihood of complications in persons with type 2 diabetes, it is critical to control hyperglycaemia. Monotherapy with metformin or insulin secretagogues may fail to sustain control after an initial reduction in glycemic levels. Thus, combining metformin with other agents is frequently necessary. These analyses model the potential long-term economic and health impact of using combination therapy to improve glycemic control. Methods An existing model that simulates the long-term course of type 2 diabetes in relation to glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and post-prandial glucose (PPG) was used to compare the combination of nateglinide with metformin to monotherapy with metformin. Complication rates were estimated for major diabetes-related complications (macrovascular and microvascular) based on existing epidemiologic studies and clinical trial data. Utilities and costs were estimated using data collected in the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). Survival, life years gained (LYG), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), complication rates and associated costs were estimated. Costs were discounted at 6% and benefits at 1.5% per year. Results Combination therapy was predicted to reduce complication rates and associated costs compared with metformin. Survival increased by 0.39 (0.32 discounted) and QALY by 0.46 years (0.37 discounted) implying costs of £6,772 per discounted LYG and £5,609 per discounted QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed the results to be consistent over broad ranges. Conclusion Although drug treatment costs are increased by combination therapy, this cost is expected to be partially offset by a reduction in the costs of treating long-term diabetes complications.

Abstract Background Decision makers need to have Canadian-specific cost information in order to develop an accurate picture of diabetes management. The objective of this study is to estimate direct medical costs of managing complications of diabetes. Complication costs were estimated by applying unit costs to typical resource use profiles. For each complication, the event costs refer to those associated with the acute episode and subsequent care in the first year. State costs are the annual costs of continued management. Data were obtained from many Canadian sources, including the Ontario Case Cost Project, physician and laboratory fee schedules, formularies, reports, and literature. All costs are expressed in 2000 Canadian dollars. Results Major events (e.g., acute myocardial infarction: $18,635 event cost; $1,193 state cost), generate a greater financial burden than early stage complications (e.g., microalbuminuria: $62 event cost; $10 state cost). Yet, complications that are initially relatively low in cost (e.g., microalbuminuria) can progress to more costly advanced stages (e.g., end-stage renal disease, $63,045 state cost). Conclusions Macrovascular and microvascular complication costs should be included in any economic analysis of diabetes. This paper provides Canadian-based cost information needed to inform critical decisions about spending limited health care dollars on emerging new therapies and public health initiatives.