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The Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 10.6 mm to global sea level rise between 1992 and 2018, and it is projected to be the largest glacial contributor to sea level rise by 2100. Here we assess the relative importance of two major sources of uncertainty in 21st century ice loss projections: (1) the choice of sliding law and (2) the surface mass balance (SMB) forecast. Specifically, we used the ice flow model Úa to conduct an ensemble of runs for 48 combinations of sliding law and SMB forecast for three major Greenland outlet glaciers (Kangerlussuaq (KG), Humboldt (HU) and Petermann (PG) glaciers) with differing characteristics and evaluated how the sensitivity to these factors varied between the study glaciers. Overall, our results show that SMB forecasts were responsible for 4.45 mm of the variability in sea level rise by 2100 compared with 0.33 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) due to sliding law. HU had the largest absolute contribution to sea level rise and the largest range (2.16–7.96 mm SLE), followed by PG (0.84–5.42 mm SLE), and these glaciers showed similar patterns of ice loss across the SMB forecasts and sliding laws. KG had the lowest range and absolute values (- 0.60 to 3.45 mm SLE) of sea level rise, and the magnitude of mass loss by SMB forecast differed markedly between HU and PG. Our results highlight SMB forecasts as a key focus for improving estimates of Greenland's contribution to 21st century sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 10.6 mm to global sea level rise between 1992 and 2018 and is projected to be the largest glacial contributor to sea level rise by 2100. Here, we assess the relative importance of two major sources of uncertainty in 21st century ice loss projections: 1) the choice of sliding law and 2) the surface mass balance (SMB) forecast. Specifically, we used the ice flow model Úa to conduct an ensemble of runs for 48 combinations of sliding law and SMB forecast for three major Greenland outlet glaciers with differing characteristics (Kangerlussuaq [KG], Humboldt [HU] and Petermann [PG] glaciers) and evaluated how the importance of these uncertainties varied between the study glaciers. Overall, our results show that SMB forecasts were responsible for 4.45 mm of the variability in sea level rise by 2100, compared to 0.33 mm SLE due to sliding law. HU had the largest absolute contribution to sea level rise and the largest range (2.16 to 7.96 mm SLE), followed by PG (0.84 and 5.42 mm SLE), and these glaciers showed similar patterns of ice loss across the SMB forecasts and sliding laws. KG had the lowest range and absolute values (-0.60 to 3.45 mm SLE) of sea level rise and the magnitude of mass loss by SMB forecast differed markedly from HU and PG. Our results highlight SMB forecasts as a key focus for improving estimates of Greenland's contribution to 21st century sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice shelves restrain flow from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Climate-ocean warming could force thinning or collapse of floating ice shelves and subsequently accelerate flow, increase ice discharge and raise global mean sea levels. Petermann Glacier (PG), northwest Greenland, recently lost large sections of its ice shelf, but its response to total ice shelf loss in the future remains uncertain. Here, we use the ice flow model Úa to assess the sensitivity of PG to changes in ice shelf extent, and to estimate the resultant loss of grounded ice and contribution to sea level rise. Our results have shown that under several scenarios of ice shelf thinning and retreat, removal of the shelf will not contribute substantially to global mean sea level (<1 mm). We hypothesize that grounded ice loss was limited by the stabilization of the grounding line at a topographic high ~12 km inland of its current grounding line position. Further inland, the likelihood of a narrow fjord that slopes seawards suggests that PG is likely to remain insensitive to terminus changes in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric changes have occurred over the Greenland region during the last century. Several studies have documented record‐levels of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) summer melt extent during the 2000s and 2010s, but relatively little work has been carried out to assess regional climatic changes in other seasons. Here, we focus on the less studied cold‐season (i.e., autumn and winter) climate, tracing the long‐term (1873–2013) variability of Greenland's air temperatures through analyses of coastal observations and model‐derived outlet glacier series and their linkages with North Atlantic sea ice, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric circulation indices. Through a statistical framework, large amounts of west and south Greenland temperature variance (up to r2 ~ 50%) can be explained by the seasonally‐contemporaneous combination of the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; hereafter the combination of GBI and NAO is termed GBI). Lagged and concomitant regional sea‐ice concentration (SIC) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) seasonal indices account for small amounts of residual air temperature variance (r2 < ~10%) relative to the GBI. The correlations between GBI and cold‐season temperatures are predominantly positive and statistically‐significant through time, while regional SIC conditions emerge as a significant covariate from the mid‐20th century through the conclusion of the study period. The inclusion of the cold‐season Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in multivariate analyses bolsters the air temperature variance explained by the North Atlantic regional predictors, suggesting the remote, background climate state is important to long‐term Greenland temperature variability. These findings imply that large‐scale tropospheric circulation has a strong control on surface temperature over Greenland through dynamic and thermodynamic impacts and stress the importance of understanding the evolving two‐way linkages between the North Atlantic marine and atmospheric environment in order to more accurately predict Greenland seasonal climate variability and change through the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present the first Lateglacial and Holocene glacial history from Rotsunddalen, northern Troms and western Finnmark county, northern Norway, based on both relative and numerical moraine dating using Schmidt hammer, soil chronosequencing and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide dating. We combine these chronological data with a regional map of the glacial geomorphology to hypothesize key events in the glacial history from around 14 ka to present. Our reconstruction shows that, following deglaciation of the main ice sheet across central Troms and Finnmark, mountain glaciers were terminating on land, close to the coast, between around 12.1 and 10.6 ka. Continued recession of the main Fennoscandian Ice Sheet margin towards the SE led to the isolation of several large plateau icefields and outlet glaciers that generated moraines at around 10.2–9.2 ka, which we ascribe to the Erdalen Event, and 8.4–8.2 ka, which is broadly contemporaneous with the 8.2 ka cold event. Although the latter corresponds with the Scandinavian Finse Event, very few moraines have been dated to this time and we therefore view it as a tentative hypothesis for future work to test. During the Holocene Thermal Maximum (~6.6 to 6.3 ka) most (if not all) glaciers in the region disappeared, but then regrew during the Neoglaciation and produced large moraines dated to around 4.7 ka that lie a few hundred metres distal to the prominent Little Ice Age moraines (previously dated to AD 1810s–1870s). Given the limitations of our dating approach, the preservation of moraines dated to this period in northern Norway also warrants further investigation. We also highlight that terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide dating of the moraines is not consistent with other dating approaches and the widely established deglaciation history of the region, probably owing to cosmogenic inheritance and insufficient glacial erosion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier is one of Greenland's largest tidewater outlet glaciers, accounting for approximately 5 % of all ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet. In 2018 the Kangerlussuaq ice front reached its most retreated position, since observations began in 1932. We determine the relationship between retreat and: (i) ice velocity; and (ii) surface elevation change, to assess the impact of the retreat on the glacier trunk. Between 2016 and 2018 the glacier retreated ~5 km and brought the Kangerlussuaq ice front into a major (~15 km long) overdeepening. Coincident with this retreat, the glacier thinned as a result of near-terminus acceleration in ice flow. The subglacial topography means that 2016-18 terminus recession is likely to trigger a series of feedbacks between retreat, thinning and glacier acceleration, leading to a rapid and high-magnitude increase in discharge and sea level rise contribution. Dynamic thinning may continue until the glacier reaches the upward sloping bed ~10 km inland of its current position. Given the complexity and scale of the processes involved, such changes will not be represented in prognostic models of the Greenland Ice Sheet to 2100 and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]